welcome 20 "worldwide exchange." headlines from around the globe, watching what's happening in china, mixed messages. manufacturing data shows a sharp rebound, while hsbc reflects a marked drop. its fifth straight month of contraction. >> industrial sector, as well, france's march manufacturing pmi hits a 33 month low, while germany seeing a sharp drop in new export orders. in and investors will are search ism manufacturing data for clues about what they can expect from

friday's jobs figures. >> and japan sees no improvement in business conditions, a sign the central bank may have to do more to stimulate growth. we'll speak with mr. yen himself live from tokyo in 15 minutes. >> welcome to today's program. it's all about pmis. just to recap the eurozone march, 47.7 as the flash had to come in a couple weeks ago. output index slightly weaker, 48.7. 48.3 in february and final new orders index 45.4, weaker than february. so really confirming the manufacturing sector has shrunk for an eighth month and faster

pace. confirming spreads to core members, as well. earlier data from determine any showed its manufacturing sector contracted to a similar story in france, and spain, there the sector contracted for the 11th month. manufacturing in italy shrinking for the eighth month in a row. haven't it for wealth management and singapore ocbc bank. nice to see you. mixed pmis. europe versus china, but is there anything to fear -- what is to fear from investors from the weak growth numbers out, bearing in mind of course they've been buoyed by the ltro bank system? >> i think what the market has not fully discounted is the impact of austerity measures of the euro -- the lrt ochltd, the other measures, but i think going forward as the individual

european nations implement austerity measures, we're not sure how it will impact economic growth. a lot sharper than expected, then i think europe will come back to the forefront, spoogen investors and spook markets. >> i think of concern will be the new orders. new packer to orders down to 4545 45.4. new orders declining in germany, as well p. and engineering orders declining in germany, too. germany of course is the export model. so what do we infer from that? >> well, it's not a good sign. it clearly shows that a lot of global economies are slowing down. but i think things could pick up. we've had a lot of monetary stimulus coming out of europe. i think things in the u.s. are picking up, as well. some could have better european

numbers down the road. so we didn't want to read too much into just one set of numbers. things could pick up and we'll have to wait for the next couple of month it is see how the numbers pan out. >> all right. plenty more to come in the next hour. also today, total is drawing up plans to assess how to stop the gas leak. we'll have the latest on that. accounting concerns continuing to moment on the discount size to revise its results. but should investors be concerned. plus warren buffett's been reminiscing about his first ever job as a paper boy, so find out what he says he learned long before he was a billionaire a little bit later. and that's not a shot that you see everybody day. >> no, that's not a the shot you see every day. refreshing actually. >> i presume he was sending out the copies of the newspaper that

he owns. >> here in asia, everyone is focusing on the manufacturing data, seeing a pick up, but hsbc private survey showing mixed signals. markets seem to be focusing on the official data. nikkei 225 snapping a three day losing streak to end higher. the moody's upgrade of the sovereign credit ratings and that's all financials going to a rally help to go push the index up. sensex trade to go the up side 0.6 nick bogert. hang seng with no cost cues coming from china, this particular market trading more on the likes of properties getting dragged down lower.

so a mixed picture there. taiwan wasted index is down 0.9 nick bogert. that is an overhang in this particular market and moving a little bit it to the up side, 0.4 nick bogert. so for a monday, a little mixed here in asia. what about your heat map? >> we're weighted to the up side, advancers outpacing decliners around about 7:3. follows not a bad q1, of course, for european stocks. ftse 100 today up half a percent. so far this year up 4 nick bogert. just over 3.5 nick bogert ffor s

in the first quarter of this year, as well. cac and mib, not quite as about. mib down half a percent today. the cac up just over 8% for the year, up 0.6 of 1% for the year -- not the year, the quarter. pmis were slightly -- headline number was weak, it was matched by the flash new orders index and output slightly weak. euro-dollar, 1.3370. we have seen the dollar just slightly weaker against the yen, although the yen gold sold out after the pmi numbers. aussie dollar had jumped, as well. we had the two month low. well before that, up over a dollar. and you can see sterling manufacturing pm chlt coming out, the flash number in under half an hour.

sterling firm against the dollar. keep your eyes on the debt markets. yields are a little high higher. italian btps just getting back down toward the 5%. spanish yields a little lower. bund yields slightly higher. and brent, the other thing the china pmi number did boost brent prices, but we have over 123, back below that for the moment. worth pointing out that brent in the last quarter up some $15 in q1, the best performance since q1 last year. christine. >> well, here in asia, of course, mentioning china, tale of two pmis leaving investors wondering if the world's second largest economy is rebounding or heading south. >> that's right you can the official gaming of manufacturing activity in china in-expectedly surged in march rising as a matter of fact 53.1 and that's

its highest level in 11 months and it's considerably higher than the median forecast of 50 1/2. on the other side of the coin, hsbc's private pmi data 48.3, its fifth monthly contraction in a row and china markets have not reacteded, but unlikely to sooth concerns over slowing growth. historically there tends to be a rebound in march pmis as new orders pick up. chinese new year will get a sense when will the mainland ma. back to you. >> thank you very much for that. let's get more reaction from our guest host. mixed picture, private survey says manufacturers are struggling, official says we're seeing a strong pick up. what is your view? >> we think china is heading for

hard landing. this year we're looking at 8.5% if terms of economic growth. the march mums as we take a look because there's an element of seasonality to it. producers are ramping up production. i think we have to look at it in the next few months, but i think the chinese central bank is easing monetary policy. it will be cut two more times this year, probably not a reduction in rates just yet. and the chinese government launched reserves if necessary. so i don't think china is heading for hard landing. it's good for china because it needs to take a breather. slow dunn is not a bad thing. i think they're focusing on the quality of growth as opposed to just pure growth number, which comes with a price. >> so far the greatest risk

pacing the chinese economy are a couple of things. slowing property market and of course growing local government debt. which of these two do you think is going to be the biggest risk to the chinese economy? >> i think probably the property market because when property prices come off, it clearly has a wealth effect. you've seen the better property prices in japan and u.s. when property prices come down, it has a negative long effect, it hurts consumer spending. but i think at the same time, china will not allow its property market to crash. i think the chinese property market is likely controlled and i think the government will do to make sure the market will not crash. think they're making sure that first time home buyers have enough financing to go out there and buy. i don't think they'll let it crash because they see what happened in japan and the u.s. they learned lessons. and they can control the outcome. >> can a whole global economy still count on china for growth

in. >> they can, but not to the same september as last five years. used to be 10%, 11%. i think those numbers are not possible going forward. closer to 8%, 8.5%. and i think it's good for the rest of the world, as well. because if china glows too rapidly, the down fall could be quite severe and the rest of the world could suffer. >> a lot of countries would kill for 8%, 9% growth. >> precisely. coming up next, it was a great first quarter for japanese market, but why aren't the big manufacturers sharing investors' optimism? a look at why the bank of japan survey underwhelmed many.

world could suffer.

shares of total are rising on the news the group could send 1k3er79s to assess how to cap the leaking gas well. plans to land a helicopter at the installation as well as proposals to seal the well were discussed with britain's health

and safety executive today. stefane has been following the story for us. >> before sending 1k3er789s on the platform, total needs the authorization from the british safety authority. the risk of an explosion has lowered this weekend since the flare extinguished itself. they announced it on their twitter account. the platform has been leaking gas for over a week, losing about 200,000 cubic meters per day, but the situation has been stable for the last five days. total is working on two scenarios to stop the leak. the first would be to inject some sort of mud in the pipe from the platform, but to do so, the company needs to send some experts on location. the second scenario would be to drill so drilling at 4,000 meters below sea level and could take a long

time, up to six months. so we are will know more over the next couple of hours to know if total is authorized to send some stuff on the platform. christine, over to you. over in japan, focusing on big business seeing no improvement in the conditions in the first quarter this year, according to the latest survey put out by central bank. japan's largest manufacturers say they expect only mild progress in the coming months, a sign many are still worried about the yen's strength and the global growth slowdown. to tell us more, let's go live to tokyo. >> you'd think that the last three months, corporate japan would be more optimistic given the floor of the dollar-yen. but the tankan survey showed sentiment among the large manufacturers pretty much

unchanged in the latest survey. hasn't really done a lot to dent sentiment for the equity market. we had credit suisse come out with a report. they are upgrading japan to tactically overweight. you also had components encouraging. carmaker index reading at plus 28, the highest since september of 2010. that was a little bit of a boost to the carmaker stocks today and happened to trigger a winning streak for the equity market, reversing a three day losing streak. this is the start of the new fiscal year as you know, there's a lot of changes that may be brewing in japan, not only on the corporate front, but on the political front, as well, with a debate about its possible hike in the consumption tax under way. but here is what the are prime minister who is staking his

political career on this had to say about that. >> translator: i believe the sales hike is the most appropriate way through which japan as ale whole can help and support itself and chief a stable social security. sales taxes are less affected by economic situations compared to corporate and income text. in that sense, i believe sales taxes are indispensable for improving and establish lizing social security. >> he's facing opposition from within his own party with a number of lawmakers saying they will quit the party because of this tax. so it will be an uphill battle in parliament which begins deliberations if they want to pass this by the current term. so those are some of the issues facing the political front here in if japan, this could be the start of a grand coalition and getting back to the corporates, as you know, this is going to be a big turn around here for some of consumer electronics or at least they hope so under new

management. >> okay, joining us now, japan's former vice finance minister of international affairs about professor, thank you so much for joining us on "worldwide exchange." y the equity market seems to be doing well, but there are changes brewing like the change consumption tax. what would it take to lift business sentiment over in japan? >> well, this consumption tax discussion i think is very bad in terms of their timing. japan is just about to recover from their recession of fiscal 2011, which was hit by the earthquake and tsunami, but this will consumption tax increase discussions would probably with related impact on the recovery. >> but professor, when would be

a good time? we've had these discussions for over a decade now, for 20 years. and the fiscal positions has deteriorating as we speak. isn't it time someone bit the bullet so to speak? >> well, you you know, look, i mean, we have related growth. probably fiscal 2011 is minus 1% or a little below minus 1%. and we are not sure if the recovery will be robust or not. we may have, you know, a continuation of really weak economy. this is no time to increase taxes or no time to talk about increasing taxes. at times like this, you should rather reduce the taxes rather than increasing the taxes. >> professor, taking away from the tax towards the currency, you're known for your prediction of the currency, the japanese currency has weakened quite a bit.

do you still think it's too strong at this level and what's needed for corporate japan to turn a bit more positive about the outlook and what's needed for the economy to recover in terms of the currency outlook? >> well, i think the currency movement would be the range trading probably between $1.80 and $1.85 for some time to come. but i would not anticipate a radical weakening of the japanese currency above $1.90. if anything, japanese yen would strengthen. but for the time being,le probably be traded between 80 and 85. >> do you think there's a case for them to do even more or not?

>> yeah, if the commission does improve as much as anticipated, i think it is likely that they would engage in further quantity indicative easing and i think he does have that weapon at this moment in his hand. >> in terms of easing, what else is required from the boj, what more can be done? >> they could start buying jgbs in much more sort of rise quantities. >> you mentioned earlier that they should be cutting taxes rather than raising them, i'm thinking particularly about the corporate tax rate whiches has gone down just a touch really. is there any possibility that they will move on that front especially to get flows of foreign capital back into japan? >> well, yeah, i think the corporate are from the tax

should be cut furthermore, you know, as compared to other countries. corporate profit tax still in japan is still very high. so rather than increasing, talking about increasing consumption tax, we should be talking about reducing corporate profit tax further. and as you say, that would entice for country companies to invest more in japan. >> so it's all part of stimulating some growth in japan and raising tax receipts. how long can japan go along with issues this vast amount of death? is there a -- what's the time frame on that before you get into problems? >> okay. at this moment, they're not in fiscal problem and despite very large amounts of debts, which is close to 200% of gdp, we have very large amount of household

financial assets, which is about 240% of the gdp. so for another four to five years, we wouldn't have any problem in terms of debts. but if the deficit continues as it is, we might start to have a problem six years or seven years later. but for the time being, i think we should not hesitate to increase issuance of the debts to simulate the economy. what we need is at this moment stimulate fiscal policy. >> professor, i want to get your thoughts about structural issues in japan. we've talked about fiscal policy, we talked about monetary policy, but the longer term issues, japan is a rapidly aging population, it has a shrinking population, do you see that as a long term problem? the world is globalizing. opening up its doors.

what's your view on these issues with japan? >> well, manipulation for japan is very difficult. japan is a very -- we have pot had any sort of large manipulation throughout our history.not had any sort of large manipulation throughout our history. so it's politically really difficult. sure, our population will decline, but so i think we should be satisfied with the growth rate of 1% or 1.5%. with the decline in population, 1.5% is high enough. >> at the time when japan is trying to switch away from nuclear energy, high oil prices coming at a time where it could possess a big risk to the japanese economy, how big a risk does crude prices pose at this point in the recovery of japan? >> well, this is a serious problem.

i think our power generation sites would be closed one by one. within a matter of a year or so, all the nuclear power generation sites would be closed. and so electricity would become a major problem for japan. but we have a potential and serious consideration needs to be given to the extensive use of the geo summit power is a good candidate to sort of replace. >> which makes the case for geothermal. but a lot of these places are national parks. and i know they're deregulating or thinking about deregulating some of the issues surrounding that, but do you think they'll go a step further? because as you know, there are plenty of japanese companies doing great business in geothermal, but all of it's overseas. >> that's right.

so deregulation particular any in terms of what you said about natural is absolutely necessary. japanese companies does have technology for the geothermal power. so if we deregulation substantially, i think there's a lot of prospect for increasing the geothermal power. and of course japan has a deep sea, so that utilizing the differences of the temperature, we could have sea power, as well. >> professor, thank you so much for being here with us on the "worldwide exchange." thank you so much for your insight. . >> great interview. interesting insights. we'll come back to it. first, manufacturing pmis have

surprised to the up side. sterling broken through 1.60 against the dollar. manufacturing p mi-52.1 in march. consensus was for a number of 50.7. so in a big contrast to what we saw with eurozone pmis, uk manufacturing pmis going up, they're in expansion territory, the new orders index, this is another big contra against the eurozone, new orders index 52.7 in will march. 50.5 in pfebruary highest since march last year. shows input prices index highest since august 2011. so the pmi pointing they say to 0.3% quarter to quarter manufacturing growth in the first quarter. so british manufacturing activity expanding at its fastest pace in ten months in

march and increasing the chance of britain's economy has not gone into recession. head of european interest rates at barclays capital, what do you make of this bit of data? in stark con as trtrast to the son pmi. >> it's been a mixed bag of data. clearly the data in uk has been better than expected, pointing to a more resilient economy. >> this suggested the oecd forecast of recession in the uk is wrong, doesn't it? i know a lot would depend on the services side. >> well, yeah. i think it's too early to say that it's all clear. it's a little bit more resilient, but still at fairly low levels of activity and you've got a number of conflicting signals. so i think what you can say is that the worst fears about the economy, about the debt of the

recession, is probably likely to be unfounded. both for the uk and for the euro area. but you're looking at negative growth or very low growth for the coming quarters, i think, question, still. >> sterling's just hit a session high, fur month high, sorry, against the dollar as a result of this, 1.6047. where does leave the further qe debate? there are still meets of the mpc still wanting a bigger program. >> yeah, i don't think that's we'll get a decision on that this week. i think it's more likely to come in may and you are call is that we've seen the last bit of the qe program in the uk. we're not going to get anything further. saying that if there is a down size surprise on the economy, i think the debate will resurface. but as it stands, it doesn't

hook like there's going to be another installment. >> we'll take short few moments. george osbourne is expected to challenge india's decision to overhaul its tax regime. we'll have the latest from mumbai. so, how do you feel about cash back? i would not say i'm into it, but let's see where this goes. [ buzzer ] do you like to travel? i'm all about "free travel," babe.

that's what i do. [ buzzer ] balance transfers -- you up for that? well... too soon? [ female announcer ] fortunately, there's an easier way with creditcards.com. compare hundreds of cards from every major bank, and find the one that's right for you. creditcards.com. it's simple. search, compare, and apply.

more evidence of pain in the eurozone's industrial sector. france's march manufacturing p mchl i hit a 33 month low. germany sees a sharp drop in new export orders. mixed message as china's official march manufacturing data shows a sharp rebound, while hsbc's private number reflects a marked drop. >> and in the u.s., investors will search today's ism manufacturing data for clues about what they might expect for friday's jobs report. >> and japan sees no improvement in business conditions, a sign the central bank may have to do more to stimulate growth. >> in contrast to the eurozone, uk manufacturing pme has come in at the strongest pace in ten months, british manufacturing activity strongest pace for ten

months. up from february's revised 51.5 driven by new orders. loren, let's concentrate on the european numbers. how big a risk are we facing from slower growth here, how does that feedback into the debt dynamics at some point this this year? >> there are two things to note here. first, clearly you have march data which is weak, so it makes it difficult to have a good start to the second quarter of the year. so we might actually be faced with a third quarter of recession in the manufacturing sector in a number of these economies. the second thing to note, though, is if you look at the

down side surprise was really on the france side, on the core cups in general. spain and italy were stable at neglect it difference level. so the big question to answer your question is the big thing is really that these economies in particular, spain, is facing a lot of, you know, a lot of problems on the economic side. that does -- that has a negative impact on the debt dynamics. but it's still early days. >> what seems to be particularly going on, just look at the german numbers, we saw new orders taking significant dip and it wasn't just in the pmis. we also got it with the engineers figures last week. where does that lead us? >> well, up until now, germ any has been doing relatively well. i think you need to be a little bit careful with some of the

monthly data. you can have distortions. germany, the labor market is doing well. so no question whether is a dichotomy between the core companies and germany in particular and then the periphery. despite some of the more recent mixed data. germany is doing very well by those standards. >> is the euro weak enough do you think at this level? how weak does the euro have to be to simulate growth in the eurozone? >> the euro is not particularly away from where it should be given the interest rate differentials that you have between the euro and the u.s. maybe a little too strong, but not massively. i would say a few points. if you do have a big weakening

towards the 120 level, i think that would generate a lot of positive economic growth, in particular in the core countries which would also have the periphery. i think over time what you need to have is probably a stronger u.s. economy so your differentials play in favor of the weaker euros. but in the very near term, it's unlikely that you'll move from the 1.30 type of levels towards the 1.20. >> loren, thank you very much. back here in asia, we're looking of course at india's manufacturing activity pulling back for the second straight month in march to 54.7 from 56.6 in february. the hsbc reading also points to a stark improvement in business conditions thanks to a pick up in local demand.

more live from mumbai. >> you mentioned the pmi figure which is came out for the the month of march from hsbc at around 54.7 versus 56.6 in february. there's mixed opinion with regards to these pmi numbers. what hsbc actually said is that manufacturing activity grew at a slower clip and that was because of power outages which actually restricted capacity and there were a lot of capacity constraints this time around which hence limited that amount of manufacturing capability. but there are some reports or there are some economists who believe that this actually indicates a bit of a consolidation. remember that in 2011, there was quite a slowdown in the pmi numbers and from 2012 onwards, we can see a bit of a pick up. now, what does this mean for the q4 gdp growth rate? remember there was an expectation that q4 is possibly going to improve to 6.9% hence

average out the growth for gdp in terms of for the entire year to be around a 6.9%, around 7.1%. this manufacturing data indicates that maybe we could possibly be in line to achieve that growth in q4. that is basically the last fiscal of financial europe. to put it in perspective, one overhang or one big concern remains inflation. they did say that inflation got news to be firm and there could be up side risks to inflation. most of the economists are working with an average rate of con nation to be around 6.5% to 7.0% for the next fiscal. what does it mean for the rbi which meets in two weeks from now? they're going to take this into account for sure and inflation is possibly going to be top of mind for them, so we could skoc

hold on rates now. so pmi numbers seem to be pretty much in consolidation. back to you. which thank you very much for that live from mumbai. >> george osbourne will be in india, he'll weigh in on the overall of india's tax regime during an official visit as expected to criticize the fiscal rules change which could end up costing western countries billion misback dated capital gains taxes. we had this extra or the letter from the cb ichi, have question the rule of law, due process and fair treatment in india. what they're trying to do is retrospective legislation perspective, goes back to 1960 and suggests any deals more than cups may buy are not going to be retrospectively taxed. what is the indian government

doing here? because do they want investment in the country or not? >> i think clearly they do. i'm not familiar with all the details. yand probably lesser than china. china has been open arms. india less so. but i think overall clearly they want to see more foreign investments. it's needed. they can't run away from it. >> who will benefit from all this, china? >> possibly. china has open door policy, china is a lot more welcome as far as foreign investments are concerned. you see a lot more money pouring in to china. with india, i think the system is a lot more rigid. it's clearly a lot no bureaucracy. i think china will benefit from the oil flow. >> great. you'll continue to stay on with us. time to zero in on south korea. moody's raising the outlook for the country's sovereign credit rating for the first time since

april 2010 from stable to positive. >> yes, this is a nice vote of confidence for the south korean economy and it could improve a global appetite for the country's assets such as the yuan and equities. they're siting midterm economic outlook and steadily improving fiscal positions and banking sector. the credit officer for asia and middle east told cnbc earlier today. >> if korea has essentially the authorities, but also say the bankers learned a lesson from '97 and also the lessons from 2008 more recently. but essentially in the corporate sector, leverage has been reduced from exceptionally high levels back in 1997. >> on the flip side, moody's

says rising public sector debt and high household debt continue to hinder quality. hoods it hasn't seen any elevation of risk under the new leader and his regime. back to you. sdh tha >> thank you very much for that. car sales soared in march a year after the earthquake disaster. let's go live to tokyo. >> the japan automobile dealers association says the sales marked septemberventh consecutive monthly rise. figures boosted by government subsidies. last december the government decided on a program to provide a total of $3.6 billion of subsidies to spark sales of fuel efficient cars. the incentives will help make up

for the drop in export production at japanese factories as the strong yen keeps cars made here relatively less competitive overseas. however some car manufacturers warned that such strong demand could cause incentive package to run out before the scheduled january 31st expiration date next year. and another story to tell you about, the newly formed trust bank is off to a shaky start. on its first day of business, the bank said they were having problems with its atms. customers who use cash cards of the now defunct trust banking could not transfer money to other accounts from atms at branches of the former bank. the new bank was launched sunday new a merger of three trust and banking firms. back to you, christine. >> thank you very much for that from the nikkei. >> and back to italy. just to remind you, we're seeing session lows right now, ibex down, and the mib down 1.6%. mario monti has admitted the

country still has a long way to go. he's touring asia in an attempt to drum up investment in the country's economies. he's hopeful eurozone can draw a line on its debt problems and is unlikely to reignite the crisis. >> i should confess this may be in my assessments on the my relatively positive assessments on the eurozone crisis that i believe is virtually over may be there is a small psychological component, as well. when i took office, i was dreeply concerned that in spite of our efforts, italy might be a new flame in the fire. this so far as not happened. >> monti's welcomed to increase the fireball, he knows a larger

share would act as a deter represent. talks that europe has done enough and it's now down to the imf to increase its resources. >> europe has done their home work and a number of countries have already committed to more imf resources. and i think it's an important point to say that while here in europe, we're trying to handle our price management, but it's not only the european economy which is vulnerable. there are other things that are disturbing on a global scale. so to increase imf resources is not for europe, eats for the world as such. >> at the same time, minister of economic development told silvia that both the fiscal compact and both the firewall need more work if the bloc is to pull through the debt crisis. >> fiscal is a plea rec wi sis,

but again, if we don't combine these efforts on fiscal consolidation with real investments and reforms for growth, it will be use last. >> firewall, esm, esfs, do you think we've got enough of a protection against contagion for the big economies like italy and spain? >> we have done a very important step because the stronger the firewalls are, the less likely is the use of the firewalls. because markets want to be guaranteed that in case of need, firewalls are strong enough. and what has been decided is certainly a step in the right direction. probably is not enough, but i think that they took the right decision.

>> equity markets a mixed session here in asia. investors staying cautious. nikkei 225 lifted from three days of losses. kospi up 0.8%. we also had what's boosting the sector, moody's upgrade on sovereign credit ratings. sensex, we have pmi data showing a pull back in manufacturing. consolidation somewhat in the manufacturing sector. this particular index trading to the up side. big drag on this particular market after the arrest of its into owners and the trading a little to the up side. we have comments from the guy

fans minister saying whether the government could consider a capital gains tax on stocks. that's weighing on sentiment. and trading to the up side, 0.2%. so a lot of pmis out today including your neck of the woods, as well. and that's filtering into sentiment across the region. >> we've just turned negative here in europe. half% on the cac 40. iltly, food city mip doftse mib down 1.5%. pmi better than expecteded for hfr. we came in 52.1, expectations 57.7. aussie dollar rebounded after the chinese pmis were well over 104, just coming back down as we go through you will session.

still to come, warren buffett is revisiting his childhood, he's donned a paper boy outfit at the omaha press club dinner. how did you make your first buck?

let's get a final thought from our guest host. we've been talking during the break. we've had two quarters of gains here in asia pacific, but it doesn't feel like a rally the at all. where does it go from here? >> you're right. you look at the economy and pmi numbers out of europe, they all point to the fact that economic fundamentals improved, but valuations are not expensive. the fact of the matter is that there is a bub dance. we've had the easy money made, liquidity driven rally have sent markets up. i think from here on the markets with probably headed higher bus we think the markets will pull back. but we are positive on the equity markets in the medium term. we have a new normal.

we won't see 30% returns anymore. i think 10% returns, 15% returns will be the new order of the day. >> okay. great stuff. thank you very much for your insights and for being here today. a new normal. >> yeah, the new normal. still a whole hour of program to go come. and jackie's going to join us now. hi, jacks. warren buffett made his first bucks by delivering newspaper and he hasn't lost his paper boy skills. buffett took the stage on saturday night at the omaha press club show dressed as a world war ii era news boy tossing out copies of the herald and serenading the crowd with a song. ♪ i'm only a paper boy, just as happy as i can be, it all

belongs to me ♪ >> what was your first job and what did you learn from it? tell us your stories. e-mail our tweet us. [ todd ] hello? hello todd. just calling to let you know i'm giving you the silent treatment. so you're calling to tell me you're giving me the silent treatment? ummm, yeah. jen, this is like the eighth time you've called... no, it's fine, my family has free unlimited mobile-to-any-mobile minutes -- i can call all i want. i don't think you understand how the silent treatment works. hello?

[ male announcer ] buy unlimited messaging and get free unlimited calling to any mobile phone on any network. at&t.

welcome to the show. headlines from around the globe, in the united states, investors will search today's ism manufacturing data for clues about what they could expect from friday's jobs report. >> is this as we see pain for the eurozone industrial sector. french manufacturing pmi hits a 33 month low, but it's a sharp contrast in britain where activity has hit a ten month high. >> mixed messages, china's official march manufacturing data show as sharp rebound, while hsbc's private number reflects a marked drop. its fifth straight month of contraction.

>> in you've just joinedis, welcome to the start of your week. we can tell you we've had a lot of data out already, pmis in china, eurozone and in the uk. we'll recap it that, but we also have more here. job last rate seen at 10.8%. in particular of course we're looking at the jobless numbers in the likes of spain. and that's despite of course unemployment picture in germany being the best since reunification. euro-dollar trading at 1.3356. we've had a tale of two pmis already in europe. data out today adding further

evidence the euro soechb could be in recession, while britain is proves resilient with a surprise increase in its industrial activity. manufacturing contracting for the eighth consecutive month in march, with core economies like france and germany showing signs of weakness. in france, we had a 33 month low and it's the new orders in germany in particular that may be causing some concern. patricia has the latest out of frankfurt. >> absolutely, ross. and they fall the fastest rate in the last three months. what we're seeing is the leading indicators, sentiment indicators are starting to rise at a slower pace and pmi starting to fall at a faster pace. so not very good. of course the day itself was revised to the up side, however, it is the new orders down quite substantially, but also the new exports orders now down for the mint consecutive month and now at a level we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009.

so at least the manufacturing sector there certainly some weakness to the scene for determine any. and that despite our leading indicators actually still holding up quite nicely. employment situation looks very good, very perky. now, a couple of questions going forward. a, what does the march pmi data really mean for the april numbers because we know that the order component really gives you an indication of what to expect next month. and the big question or big elephant in the room still is germany going to face a mini recession, yea or mnay. and there was more and more nay coming into it saying determine any could spread through in the first quarter without really having a technical recession. but of course pmi is very important and we have also the service pmi coming on later this week. >> okay, thanks for that, patricia. eurozone debt contrasted with a much better number. manufacturing activity for the

uk at the best for ten months boosted by new orders in contrast to germany. despite that, we're pretty flat on equity markets here. we did start up an hour or so ago go, equity markets weres positive after strong gains in q1. down half a percent in france. but down 1.5% in spain. similar losses in italy. >> and we're looking at the losses on your end impacting us here, as well. we were higher when we looked at the futures earlier this morning, but now the markets could open lower. the dow by as much as 13, nasdaq by one and change and the s&p 500 just under the flat line there. this of course after stocks closed mixed on friday, but still the best first quarter since 1998, that's in 14 years with the dow up 8.14% for the quarter and year to date. some of the sector strength that we saw on friday, we saw energy and health care leading the way higher.

>> and the other pmi data out of china, yesterday activity at large factories is what the official china data measures, 11 month high 53 about.1 in march, a lot of people discounting it. it's much weaker for the smaller companies. and we get the ism manufacturing index at 10:00 eastern. forecasted up about half a point from february. expect activity to benefit from certain catalysts if march such as increased auto sales an corporate inventory rebuilding. chris wiley is with us for the rest of the program, chief investment officer. thanks for joining us. in some ways, all the pmis out of china, eurozone and uk, the u.s. number is the most important because we've had a rally over the first quarter,

sort of seems to me to be predicated on a sustainable recovery in the united states. how sustainable is it? >> i certainly agree that u.s. equities perhaps have the greatest weighted expectation upon them because of the valuation, they've been the strongest equity market and in our view the valuation there is looking a little stretched now. so i would agree with you that in spite of the fact that it's because seen as the safe haven for equity's ironically a little bit at risk because it's priced almost for perfection, whereas in europe, where of course indicators have been weaker, at least there is decent valuation to support the equity markets. >> 18% in the first quarter? >> yes, but if you go back over the last year, you'll see that the european equity markets are still well down on that high of last summer whereas the u.s. is

making a new peak. >> chris, you mentioned we seemed a little stretched here in the united states, but we still managed on eek out a very impressive quarter in terms of u.s. equities. so when we look at the data points, the focus is to see if we can get the read that the economy is slowly improving. andkcould to see the markets continue to go higher. so how do you balance those in the fact that the markets want to go higher despite the fact that we are maybe at peak levels? >> i think the markets have been trying to push higher clearly and the u.s. equity markets have had the momentum behind it and i think a lot of people who have been circumspect about the u.s. have been seeking to join in the party. it does come back to that weight of expectation. i think what we know about the u.s. is that the economy has refound some sort of footing,

sub trend growth seems to be where we're at. but i suspect that what people are really looking for now to drive the market higher is signs that the economy is accelerating in there. and the equity markets, yes, it's had momentum behind it, but it's actually showing indications of topping out of it recently. it's tried to push high, it's retreated, tried again, retreated once more. so i do see it as just a little bit of risk at the moment. >> chris, should we be worried about china slowing down. >> yes, i think we do need to worry about that. of course the day take is extremely opaque and very difficult to get a read. i was in hong kong last week.

and i can't say i came back an awful lot wiser. one they think which we're looking at is the behavior of commodity markets because it's something which can't be manipulated. and they've been suspiciously weak in recent months. copper looks as if it's trending a bit low, the broad commodity indices are not behaving in a way which is consistent with a rebounding chinese economy. and if you look it at the broad slew of data, it seems to point to an economy which is still decelerating. the latest indicator, we were watching them carefully over the weekend because we were hoping to get a little bit more enlightenment out of them, of course what we got was one indicator up, one down, so no help whatsoever. the will chlt sbc seems to be the one people are focusing on, it has a little more government -- it has a little bit more

credibility, and the other is government sponsored. two ends of the same telescope. with weaker indications of weaker exports in europe, i suspect that has something to do with china, as well. >> chris wiley will stay with us, he's our neguest host for t next hour. still to come, total says it may fly experts to investigate its north sea gas haek. we have the latest on that next. [ male announcer ] this is lawn ranger -- eden prairie, minnesota. in here, the landscaping business grows with snow. to keep big winter jobs on track, at&t provided a mobile solution that lets everyone

from field workers to accounting, initiate, bill, and track work in real time. you can't live under a dome in minnesota, that's why there's guys like me. [ male announcer ] it's a network of possibilities -- helping you do what you do... even better. ♪

time for your global markets report. let's's start in the united states. futures were higher just a little while ago, but we have turned negative. the dow could open lower by 16, the nasdaq by nearly 2 1/2 and the s&p 500 by 1. this after some mixed data coming out of the eurozone that ross will talk about more, but still i do want to talk about the quarter. really strong quarter end on friday for the stocks here in the united states despite the fact that the indices were mixed. we saw first quarter gain the best since 1998. so going to be interesting if we can continue to see that momentum trickle into the u.s. markets in the second quarter or if it's time for it a pull back.

>> we're near the session lows. an hour ago, we had advances outpacing decliners by 7:3 and that's nearly now completely the other way around. and we keep our eyes on weaker sectors. weakest areas are italy and spain. those markets down 1.5%. ftse and dax, just remind you where we stand. ftse 100 down 0.2%. ftse up around 3.5% for the first quarter. xetra dax pretty flat. up 17.5% for the year. mib, right now this is one of the big losers with spain down 1.8%. this this is what's dragger us lower. so far for the year up around about 5%. it's been droged down -- for the quarter, sorry, dragged down by the year. cac dragged down this morning

for the year by 0.75% loss. we stand at 1.3342. french pmis coming in at 33 month lows and a big drop off confirmed for new orders. china pmi that out a bit stronger than expected for new companies that boosted the aussie dollar up by more than a cent this morning. we boinsed off those two month lows. sort of halfway in between that. sterling has been the big mover today, up 4 1/2 month highs against the dollar. guilts yielding 2.25. ten year treasury yields, 5.03. they have moved up during the course of the session today.

bund yields have declined during the session. keep your eyes on oil, as well. originally that china pmi boosted brent prices. we're back above 123. just back down to $122.39. my next down to 102.46. christine, recap your day this. >> my day here. well, it's cautious despite official kay take coming out from china showing a pick up in manufacturing. but what that data really did was to give a boost to the japanese markets, snapping a three day losing streak. this market moving to the up side. softer yen help to go support this particular market. we showed business acceptsment the was a little bit muted. that seems to be the official economic data coming out from japan, as well. getting a little bit of a lift after moody's upgraded sovereign credit rating on this particular country financial rallies as a

result. slowing necessary tick concerns offsetting any strength pulling lower. hang seng, china closed for a three day holiday, into the lot of cues from the mainland, so hang seng moving lower. the taiwan weighted index down 0.9%. comments coming out from the finance ministry to say the government can aring whether to impose a capital gains tax on stocks. that is weighing on sentiment over in taiwan and the singapore up to the up side a little bit, so a little of a mixed picture here in asia and that's your global market report. >> some of the other stories we're following, a host of europe's financial institutions could start repaying loans

obtained by the ltro program this is year. financial times suggests unicredit, socgen will pay back to a third of their loans. repayments aren't officially due until december of 2014. and shares of total up on news the group could in the coming days send experts to assess how to cap a leaking gas well. plans to land a held wiicopter sealing the well will being discussed with the health and safety executive today. and total conditifirmed the flan the platform has extinguished itself. stefane is following the story for us in paris. this latest news from total that the flare extinguished, it's good news, but it also suggests they have no control at the moment of what's going on.

>> the flare is not entirely new .over the weekend, the ceo tweeted on his account that the flare has extinguished itself which is good news. total will send a helicopter in the next couple of days, quoting industry sources, and i spoke to total, and they told me they were still going on with the british safety authorities and that they will not make any decision before having the decision from the safety authority. total wants to fly some experts on the platform when it will have the green light on it from the british safety authority. the risk of an explosion has lowered since the flare extinguished itself. total is working on two scenarios. first is to send experts on the plat for and, two, inject some sort of mud in the pipe. the other option would be to drill another pipe, 4,000 meters below the sea level, but of course it would take up to six

months. so that would be the longest options. the idea to fly stuff on the platform, unions are open to the plan, they claim that it's a highly dangerous tactic. we'll have more on that in the next couple 6 hoof hours. christine back to you. >> thank you so much. here in asia, japan's latest survey on manufacturing sentiment was not as robust as many had hoped. it's led to renewed cause for more monetary stemrous from the bank of japan. the dow outlook is also putting more political pressure on a government that's under the gun to raise revenues. former finance minister told cnbc it's time to shelf consumption tax plans for now. >> we are not sure if the recovery will be robust or pot. we may have a continuation of very weak economy. is this no time to raise taxes or no talk to talk about

increasing taxes. >> he also went on to say that he fears japanese corporate taxes are too high relative to other countries and he would like to see government cut corporate taxes, as well. that's it for me. i'll be back tomorrow with the news moving markets here in asia. have a good one. >> fantastic. have a great night, christine. coming up next, it's one of the world's most recognized magazines, but the past decade has been tough for readers digest with a round in bankruptcy and overall down turn in the industry. however that hasn't stopped the magazine from trying to revive its fortunes.

taking a look at times square there early in the morning before setting up for trade on wall street. likely to see a lot more hustle and bustle as the sun comes up. you've probably all red reader's digest. it marks its 90th anniversary in 2012. but there have been growing pains including a round in bankruptcy. now reader's digest is writing it next chapter. betting its fortunes on the web and apps for the kindle and

ipad. president north america joins us to talk about it. dan, thanks for coming in. let's talk about your digital strategy. maybe being pushed digital slgts sooner than you expected to be. how are you focusing and really tapping into the digital market as we move into the rest of 2012 and beyond? >> digital has been an pofrpt part of our business for the last couple years. i joined in spring 2010 and. period of time, we're actually getting to the place where digital additions in the u.s. alone will be bigger than the news stand by the time we get to the end of the year. so it's been quite successful. >> and how do you see with the success of some of the tablets, i have mine here, i use it all the time to read my publications, how is this driving growth not just for you, but for the industry? >> the great news i think for all publishers when you look at digital addition opportunities, whether on ipad or kindall

kindle or for the first time you had an opportunity to sell to the consumer in what i would describe as seamless transaction. there spts isn't an issue of ha to reach for the credit card and you get the impulse opportunity that was so important in news stand. and now you have the same experience dinlg alley. so it's a very good opportunity for really big well-known brands in particular like reader's digest. >> the big challenge for fanybo the kept business is win they move it on to digital distribution is to work out how do we price it. how are you worked that out? >> we offer it three different ways. you can buy reader's digest digitally on regular news stand basis, so you could buy one issue and it's our $3.99ed price in the states. it's also available where you can buy it on a monthly basis

where it's going for $1.99 or you can buy an annual subscription which is ten issues at $10. rather, $14.9. and again, early days, but the good news is we're rapidly approaching a place where we'll start to see the brand sell more copies in aggregate. something three years ago you wouldn't have thought possible. >> and pricing is just part of the issue. advertising a big issue, as well, and we've seen digital counterparts have had trouble bringing the ad growth in, but you seem to be bucking the re trend. >> advertising in general, it's an interesting thing. reader's digest is $1.4 billion company and the bulk you have our business is content sales. advertising is important. we love our advertisers. always looking to have more. but it is only about 15% of our

total revenue. is gives us a greater degree of latitude. it's not automatically included for most of our marketers. it's an additional premium to be part of the digital additions and we think that makes for a better business model and also reader experience. >> thank you so much, dan, for joining us. president of north america at reader's digest. meantime, coming up, the dow and s&p turn in their best first quarter performance since 1998, but will the second quarter match up? ♪

♪ i can do anything ♪ i can do anything today ♪ i can go anywhere ♪ i can go anywhere today ♪ la la la la la la la [ male announcer ] dow solutions help millions of people by helping to make gluten free bread that doesn't taste gluten free. together, the elements of science and the human element can solve anything. solutionism. the new optimism.

welcome to the show. headlines from around the the globe today, here in the u.s., investors will search today's ism manufacturing data for clues about what they could expect from friday's jobs report. >> in the eurozone, french manufacturing pmi hits a 33 month low, but britain, a ten month high. >> and mixed messages in china where official march manufacturing data shows a sharp rebound, while hsbc's private number reflects a market crdrop.

the fifth straight month of contraction. >> nice to have you here on "worldwide exchange." thanks for joining us this morning. if you're just tuning in, let's look at the u.s. futures. now looking to be a mixed picture. we were higher, then lower. if the markets were to open now, the dow lower by 8, nasdaq just above the flat line and s&p 500 just below it. this after stocks saw their best first quarter since 1998 in 14 years with the dow up 8%. we saw sector strength up friday in energy and health care. going to be interesting to see which sectors lead the way higher or lower today. >> you yeah, european bourses have started the new quarter lower apart from the xetra dax which was the best performer, up 17%. but most of the markets have rolled over anyway in the last two or three weeks.

ibex and italian market both off. >> u.s. markets coming off their best first quarter since 1998. s&p 500 up 12%. and the nasdaq jumpsing more than 18%. so after that opening act, account the markets follow up with a positive encore in the second quarter? it's a good question. joining us to talk more about it is todd horowitz and of course chris wiley is still with us. todd, let's kick it off with you. are we in for a bullish second quarter or are we due for that pull back now? >> good morning, jackie. thank you for having me back. could we go up, sure. at this point, you certainly can't fight the tape and you can't fight the trend. the markets dictates that we want to continue to go higher. are we going to be up 8%, 12%, 19% respectively? no, i don't think so. there will probably be some pull back within this quarter and i

would say that my guess would be if i were had a crystal ball, i would say the quarter would be flat to a little lower. right now, april is a very strong month historically. the trend still remains very strongly forward. so here i'm not going to fight it and say that we'll have a selloff, at some point, yes, we will get a selloff. we had some indication last week, we had a big up damon and then tuesday, wednesday and thursday we were lower and then friday we kicked up just to end the market. we have earnings coming in, jobs number coming out. so the next couple weeks, i would still expect the rally to extend a little bit and then we'll see how everything plays out here. >> that was exactly what i was going to focus in on, data here in the united states becoming a very important indicator to see if we in fact are seeing those signs of growth and a pick up that the markets have been hoping for and looking for. so they're sort of piecing those puzzles together. and the jobs number on friday going to be very important in

terms of these markets and the confidence that we've seen. can you dig into that more and tell me what you expect? >> i expect the numbers to beat. we've gotten to a point where we've now got all the numbers down and i expect the numbers to be better. you'll get a more clear reading off of adp's output on wednesday. but i expect the numbers to clearly beat the street. the question really is going come down to when does market expectation meet what the numbers are. and i think that's what we're coming to, that eventually here we're going to overexpect what the numbers should be. but i firmly expect a beat on nonfarm and jobs this week. and i expect the ism numbers to be good today. so i'm expecting the numbers to be good and that's the only thing that can turn us if the numbers don't meet, they could give the market a small jolt, but i don't expect it. >> i want to bring in chris, as

well. it's not the economic numbers i'm so much worried about as potentially the corporate earnings numbers. so, chris, you give me your view and then we'll get todd's response. what will happen this earnings season? >> what we've been observing is, first of all, the direction of estimate revisions in recent months. and in the u.s., it's been a bit weak. we've actually seen a few downgrades. you mentioned you expected forecasts to come in and beat the street, but what tends to happen of course is the companies guide a bit lower. before the announcements. and then they beat them. and we've seen a little bit of that activity. so that's one thing. momentum of estimates revision which is seems to have petered out. the other is what we've been seeing elsewhere in the world. and in particular in asia in the last two weeks, the thing which is the fact that it has been a

weak earnings season. clearly there are some sort of region specific things and what's going on in china, but dhi in a doesn't operate in a vacuum. and is there a risk there particularly with those companies which do have significant exposure through capital goods that they can disappoint a little bit. >> it's a great question. first part of your question on the earning, we've had two solid quarters. you get companies that underestimate and overperform so we had obviously earnings that were better than expected. now is where kind of what you would say the runner meets the road. thousand they have to come up with real earnings. and going forward, this is where i think you can get some of that difference because the earnings expectations are going to be higher and we'll have to outperform even better. so that will be the catalyst that if we're going to have some

selling pressure, that will be the came take list that i think it will be the new american expectation. and things that are going on around the world, it's always hard to get a gauge, but the markets have to eventually slow down. we can never stay at this massive pace of movement going forward. markets can not go straight up or straight down at any one time. >> that's a great point. todd and chris will both stay with us. and we are over the past into years april has been the month when the stock market has reached its highs for the year. so should investors look out for another rally this month? check out ccnbc.com for more on that story. and as president obama prepares to meet with president calderon, we'll take a look at latin america and the economic prospects for the region. what are you thinking in terms of focusing your money?

and as president obama prepares [ female announcer ] the next generation of investing technology

is now within your grasp

with the all-new e-trade 360 investing dashboard. e-trade 360 is the world's first investing homepage that shows you where all your investments are and what they're doing with free streaming quotes, news, analysis and even your trade ticket. everything exactly the way you want it, all on one page. transform your investing with the all-new e-trade 360 investing dashboard. sovereign dispute flaring up in the run up to the 30th anniversary of the invasion. firms have been warn that had they will incur legal action should they provide visitor research. the sunday telegraph suggests as many as 15 banks have been

september warning letters threatening criminal and civil action. >> meantime brarack obama is meeting steven harper and felipe calderon today in washington to discuss cooperation between the three countries at the north american leaderssummit. joining us to talk more about investing in the region is carlos, from exclusive analysis. let's talk about investing in latin america for the investors that are looking at some of the global trades. some of the richisks are heatin up. how do you play it? >> i think the americans a mixed bag, but immention brazil, colombia, pay rue and mexico. very different stories. brazil is a strong middle class.

monetary policy has been eased. there will are some concerns about china for brazil, but i think brazil is a relatively closed economy. i think we'll see faster economic growth this year. in the case of peru obviously is mini mining, the president is more pro business than expected and this has well received by the market and by the foreign companies. in the case of colombia, it is an economy that is booming, oil and mining again, the country has already gone through the $1 million that they have very stable business environment. and in the case of mexico, the faster the american economy

picking up has a positive impact in mexico. we look at the negative side of latin america, obviously you have arrest depegentina as a se concern. a lot of capital recapitulation problems with the dollar and exchange rate. the economy is slowing down. the provinces piling up local debt. so argentina is looking less bright by the minute. and also we have -- >> carlos, can he we and you can about some of the slowdown that you're suggesting there and quantify it for me because we're looking around globally and seeing some of the predictions for the growth rates to slow. so what are we expecting in latin america right now? >> we're expecting some slowdown in trade for brazil slightly. if dhi in a grchina agrees belo expect. and we also see argentina being affected by significant

slowdown. the problem is more critical because by trying to maintain a very robust trade surplus using a lot of controls, the main risk is possible retaliation from brazil, from parra qui, from mexico. if the trade partners retaliation, the possibility of maintaining the trade surplus will diminish by the minute and will affect the central bank and will impact the currency risk for the country. for colombia, it would be slightly different because there is a significant dependence on the u.s. market and indeed the u.s. economy seems to be bouncing back and will benefit colombia. >> i had a question on brazil. you mentioned it already and i

saw a chart flash up. seems to have been quite a good bellwether that currency in the path about what's going on in commodity markets generally. is that telling us next? you mentioned china is part of the problem. and why are you sounding as confident as you are that brazil can ride that out? >> well, one of the liberties brazil has which other countries example u.s. don't have is have still room for maneuver of monetary policy. secondly it has a very robust fiscal position. foreign investment is quite robust. the main problemi itat the mome is too much hot money affecting

the currency. >> if the dollar strengthened, it that would help enormously. >> indeed. one of the main problems for brazil is that the manufacturing industry suffered quite heavily, so they're desperate to keep it weaker right now because on the commodities side, they're doing great. but the manufacturing sector is suffering very heavily. >> good to see you today. thanks for coming in. i think some people are enjoying the pictures, as well, jackie. someone told me they were quite good. >> i bet they probably were. meantime global payments saying hackers stole account numbers and other information from up to 1.5 million credit cards in north america. now, the data breach was first reported on friday. the payment processor says hackers didn't getting a says to card holders names, addresses or social security numbers, but that the data they stole could be used to make counterfeit

cards. they would hold a conference card late der today. we saw global payments following 9% on friday looking at that time in frankfurt, down near i will 9%. meantime, group on oig . didn't set aside enough cash to cover customer refunds. the auditor calling the error a material weakness in it internal controls. as a result, groupon's fourth quarter loss has widened. it fell 6% in after hours on friday. and again, from down about 0.8 frankfurt this morning. ft says the company may start buying home loans expanding it share of the insurance business.

trying to find a way to buy the mortgages that it already ensures as a safe alternative investment. i'm not sure why that's safe. sounds like you're doubling up your exposure on the same investment. says the program if it happens won't start until the fourth quarter. not sure i completely understand why that's set. if you already ensure tinsure t product and then you own the underlying thing, why is that a better investment? >> i expect at the own the risk already. so they may as well take the assets and at that time yietake. >> fair enough. coming up next, a big week for economic data state side. with all that important jobs report coming out on friday. we'll take a look at the trading week ahead. 

we've had a tale of two pmis. day ta adding eurozone may be i recession. britain proving resilient pl industrial pmis the best activity for ten months. eurozone contracted for the eighth con ssecutive month.acti. eurozone contracted for the eighth consecutive month. meanwhile china has left investors wondering whether the world's second biggest economy is rebounding or heading south. the official manufacturing data for march went past estimates, but private slumped to 48.3,

fifth monthly contraction in a row. china's markets are on holiday today. rest of asia appears to be leaning towards the official view, but that is a person in of bigger companies and they were expecting a rebound in march anyway. the hsbc number concentrates on smaller private firms. >> absolutely. and there's a fair amount of economic day it take out of the u.s., as well, with reports on factory orders coming out, services sector and minutes there last month's fed meeting, as well, all leading up to the jobs report on friday. but the markets won't be open to react to the numbers as we get them the first reaction will be on monday. meantime today we get the march ism manufacturing index at 10:00 a.m., forecast calling for a reading of 53, up about half a point from february. also at 10:00, february construction spending is due out, so we'll be watching for that. it's expected to rise about 0.7%. and still with to us talk

administer abo more about that data is todd and chris. todd, let's get your view first. the ism number, do you expect to see a little bit of an increase and what does that tell us about things more generally in broader senses? >> i think that you'll see -- i think the number will at least meet expectations if not beat. and i believe that it's going to continue to help the market move forward and continue to go higher. i don't expect the miss, i expect the number to be better. i expect to show a growing economy. i expect to look good and i expect the market to react fairly well off of it, but again, without volatility and without volume, it's hard to get any real excitement here. >> todd, if we're seeing manufacturing activity potentially improve, why aren't companies hiring, why aren't we seeing that jobs rate go down faster? >> well, you have to remember

the companies learn in the crisis how to work with less people. they're putting more pressure on their current staff of where they have, they're having them work more hour, so they learn that they can get along with much people, so it's more difficult to want to bring back that staff now. it became a way that we can do instead of having 50 employees, we can do the same job at 42, so they're not in a hurry to grab back the employees and that's where part of the problem is. part of the problem is we're still farming out a lot of jobs overseas. so we still have a lot of job issues. 250,000 jobs a month is not enough to get into this problem. it just is a start. >> we've been watching the productivity trends in the u.s. quite closely and they seem to be reversing a bet becauit.

the economy has expanded but haven't taken on new workers. they seem to in fact be starting to do so, which is great for the economy at large, but is it a sort of double edged sword for companies perhaps because it means that productivity might decline slightly? >> what they're doing, they've learned and they'll add on a per needed basis. so i don't think that it's a problem here. on a per need basis, they'll add. they're getting a lot of financial think haveadvantages. so i think that they can do that. >> all right, todd, thank you so much for joining us. todd horowitz and chris wiley. we appreciate your time. that wraps it up for us. >> "squawk box" is up next. have a profitable day.

good morning. stronger than expected chinese manufacturing data easing worries of a slowdown in the world's second largest economy, but european data showing that it a continuing slowdown is happening there. here at home, we're waiting for friday's jobs report. it is monday, april 2nd, autism awareness day, 2012, "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick along with