dinner for their business. >> no offense to terrafugia, they should call this the honey badger. it's all about screens. >> thank you for watching "street signs." thank you for bringing the beautiful terrafugia. "closing bell" is coming up next. hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiroma with the new york stock change. you have an air strip. >> i'm bill griffith. wall street kick off the quarter on a high note. they're at a cruising altitude right now. taking in positive u.s. economic data. coming up, we're going to talk strategy for this new quarter and we'll find out why one of our resident chart experts is calling for a correction in the s&p 500 during this quarter following the first quarter's good gains. first, though, looking at the major averages of trading.

tying them up almost 82 point, 83 points. the nasdaq with a gain at this hour of 30 points. almost 1% at 31.31. and the s&p 500 index is up, again 13-plus points. >> nice move as we head into the final stretch. groupon share ts, for example, not participating the rally. down sharply after accounting issues forced the company to restate its quarterly results late friday afternoon. later in the program we're taking a closer lookç at futur prospects of ipos like grew upon and sin ga. what they're saying is they're pumping it into the vibrancy of the technology. late's take a key look at the themes. the second quarter kicking off. right now we're seeing stocks kick off higher. here's the good news. we saw the s&p 500 rally 12% in the first quarter. it's only the 12th time since

1928 that the index posted double digit gains in first quarter. whenever that's happened the index has risen 16% for the rest of the year. speaking of positive economic signs, we're also seeing indications that economists are increasing their forecast for the first quarter growth in the united states. now, the story we're watching is avon. the stock rallying today after the cosmetics seller rejected a $10 billion buyout offer from a much smaller company, a private company, coty. the beaut products maker looking to cash in on avon's recent struggles. of course, we'll see if there's a bidding war going on for avon. >> coty said they will raise their offer but they don't want it to be a hostile situation. we'll talk more about that and other things for our stories and what it means. we have bob pisani sitting with me at the new york stock exchange. steve liesman with more on the economy and the outlook for the

next quarter or so and david is covering the avon story. pretty good here, light volume as maria was talking about. >> we'll stop talking about volume.ç china's soft landing story, what side of the gdp growth are you on. we get inflows because of what's going on with tax season. believe it or not, as poor as the equity influence has been, that still matters. so that's certainly working. the only problem with april sit's followed by may and you know what that is. may is traditionally a slower month and it's amazing how people sell in may, go away idea. it is a bit of a wive's tail but there is a bit to support that. i believe wall street will be fine but -- it wasn't great. the construction spending number is not good at all.

you had fed officials out with slightly differing opinions on the future of monetary policy, right? >> also moving targets as to the first quarter growth number, which is pretty consequence chal, bill. let me give you a review of the tape. we had the numbers on friday. that caused economists over the weekend to up their gdp forecast. you see that 2.95% number for the fourth quarter of 2011, and what we thought was all of a sudden we're up in the 2.5 to 3% range and then the construction numbers came along and said not only were the february numbers lousy but they revising down january. all bets are all again. we had fisher say under no circumstances, not only no additional qe, but he doesn't believe they should extend operation twist, bill. >>ç i was intrigued by somethi she was saying. the purpose of monetary policy right now, is it to spur or

accelerate growth or is it to try and prevent contraction in the economy right now? what do you thing they're thinking about at this point? >> so when i hear the doves on the board speak right now, the way i hear them talk is not that they're pushing additional qe. they're trying to hold the line with the better than expected data on the existing easy monetary policy. i think the battle right now, if i had to guess, bill, is about continuing operation twist or not. i do not see or hear -- i did not believe bernanke's comments last monday indicated additional. i think the line he was making was to hold the line on additional policy and to extend twist beyond june. and the coty/avon controversy. what's going to happen next? >> it's unclear. coty doesn't really have a pass

to try to get avon to entertain that offer. this grew out of conversations that these two companies had a couple of months back in which avon approached coty about buying it. once avon agreed with the strategic rationale and had no indication, coty said it's going to try to buy it. it would be, in a sense, a leverage buyout, although the chairman of çcoty, bart beck td me to keep the company investment, great. hopes can be eternal but there's not much else behind it because at this time coty is not going to go hostile. they missed opportunity with the directors to try to put it on the board at the annual meeting and they don't even have their financing lined up in the sense that they're paying for it. so what they're really hoping is that avon shareholders who have been a long suffering bunch, let's make no mistake about it, have been pressuring directors,

saying at least talk to them, perhaps they'll get to a higher price, perhaps that higher price can be financed. but that's a lot to hope for and not perhaps realistic. we shall see. this thing could just die at today's announcement. >> or does it potentially put avon in play otherwise? >> well, it certainly gives others the notion of being with avon is interested. and do you have a board of directors that is motivated to show shareholders it is focused on creating value. now, let's not forget the search at the end of the fourth quarter. one thing that may be motivating coty is you don't have that long. you have an opportunity before a new ceo takes place. becht did not say that that's the reason. he felt they needed to present an offer to get shareholders to step up. as for potential other bidders, i haven't heard any names that would be a viable or interested

party. that could change, but at this point it's hard to say. >> who else is going to buy them? i heardç estee lauder thrown o or l'oreal. avon is a direct sales company. how would, for example, and i'm asking you, how would estee lauder, which has experience in the retail sales area, how would they deal with that kind of animal? it's a completely different animal in terms of sales. >> it is a completely different animal. avon has significant markets in brazil, china, ones that are wanted by other companies. your point's a good one. >> one other point, david, coty is a subsidiary of a german personal products company, so the bid for avon is once again revealing that you've got an increasing number of foreign firms trying to get a stake in the u.s. through acquisitions,

and this, of course, has been a major m & a theme all year, rich peterson saying the other major won would be roche's. again, foreign money coming into the u.s. and now's a good opportunity with prices where they are. >> if you think the currency translation is. coty is owned -- controlled by a german family. interestingly i spoke with bankers who said they had a big bake-off to potentially file an ipo as soon as this summer. so coty is trying to figure out lots of things to do here. of course, now, making this unsolicited but not hostile because they're not moving ahead offer for avon. >> they are ambitious, that's clear. >> thank you,ç guys. wee feel up to date. see you all late jeer groupon shares as we mentioned earlier getting hit hard after the company restated fourth quarter results late friday afternoon.

brian shactman with the cnbc exchange. over to you, brian. >> take a look. it's taken a leg down in the last hour or so. restating results, investors heading for the exit, plus duo downgrades on top of it. i just want to update the pricing on avon since we had strong conversation on it. up 18%. i also want to talk about names on the downside. craft brew alliance. almost 7%. first solar down 2%. housing names down. lennar the weakest of the bunch. boingo wireless. i will admit i have trouble using that at the airport. hartford buying back securities up 6%. abercrombie & fitch up 5%. denbury up 4.5%. the best of all s&p large cap

energy names. back to you. >> thank you very much. treasuries rallying to kick off the second quarter after the worst quarterly decline since 2010. let's check in with rick santelli in chicago with the details. >> thanks. today's weather was weak. the treasury market was, you know, came in with buyers and you can see on the intraday chart. as equities improved,ç solo gas went up. we're at in the range, a little above the halfway mark of the move that started in earnest on the 13th. this explains a lot. it was stronger as the day wore on. it started getting weak. wow, what a surprise. look at the s&ps. exact mirror image. the risks came on as a result of positi positive equities. back to you. >> thanks so much rick.

just about 45 minutes before the dow closes for the day. >> however, one leading short expert coming up, why he's calling for an update on the s&p 500. >> plus burger king overhauling its market. the burger wars trade coming next. and then after the bell, is groupon's earnings restatement of last week a sign that investors should be concerned about the tu fur of social media's stocks. we'll get to that. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. how do you ? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes.

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demand media expands on the big board.

welcome back. we do have about 45 minutes left of trading. if you're just joining us, we're going do a quick market stat check on the dow. up near the session highs at the moment, extending the best first quarter gains we've seen percentage weiss for the dow since 1988. right now it's up 80 points to

13,293, in parts thanks to the better than expecting manufacturing data for the month of march. the dow was down 50 points earlier on. materials have been the day's starter performance. freeport mack moran, allegheny, monsanto and bee miss. >> burger king spending about $750 million over the next year to overhaul its menu and its stores. now, take a look. the company remodeling its 7,200 stores. as well on the menu, healthy items like real fruit smoothies and a line of salads. in its biggest marketing campaign ever, the tv ads are featuring celebrities like david beckham and selma hayek. will it be a game-changer for the fast food industry. we bring in now r.j. and nick of wedbush securities. gentlemen, good to have you on the program.

thanks so much for joining us. r.j., let me kick this off with you. what do you think this means for the other big businesses? does this trigger a new move for the healthy menus? >> i think it's catching up with wendy's and mcdonald's more than anything else. really for a company like burger king which is still posing low sales, it really is just more of keeping up with the jones than anything else here. >> you're right. the burger king new items look strikingly similar to mcdonald's, the snack wraps. it is a little too late for burger king? >> i actually think so. >> i think so. i actually think again like they are, they're trying to catch up, play catch-up here. i think it smells more of desperation than anything else. it's more of an expression of the in fact they have been

trailing in same-store sales and losing a market share for such a long time that they're having to resort to web reviews and marquis names to try to approach something. >> you say it's catch up. so will it work? >> i actually -- >> i really think, you know, you may see a modest bump-up in comparable store sales and given that these are higher markets they're producing, you might see a little pickup in margins as well but ultimately it's not going to be a game-changer and you're not going to see much of a blip from mcdonald's or the others. >> you say mcdonald's is in the best position. >> absolutely. they've got such a great competitive position, massive bargaining powers, great advertising. they can run concurrent messages between value and continuing products.

i like mcdonald's in any economy. they're just that well positioned. it's my favorite name for capital preservation in the restaurant space for now. >> nick, even though you have a neutral rating for wendy's, that's still your name in the space. >> yes. overall in the category, i actually think they're within a secular decline since the late '90s, so i do have a neutral even though it's my favorite name within the category. i think they're trying to adoctor is the problems head on, unlike some of the other players there, and i do think that mcdonald's at this point, most of the upside and the good things are reflected in the price. i think that at least, you know, wendy's is admitting that there is a secular problem. >> all right. we'll leave it there. gentlemen, good to have you on the program. thank you so much. >> about 40 minutes to go here. holding onto the gain. the dow up 80 points.

>> what a first quarter it was. coming off the best first quarter for the market in more than a decade. up next we'll break down the charts to show why a market correction could be on the horizon. we're looking ahead. >> plus, americans owe much more on student loans than they do on credit cards. you will be shocked, i know we are, to find out who is bearing much of the student loan debt. we'll reveal all coming up on the "closing bell." >> here's a look at the dow jones industrial average. 30 stocks and two under selling pressure here. back in a moment. y to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future. ♪

new money flowing into commodities including red metal, that is copper. i'm sharon even. we did get some positive data on china's i manufacturing sector earlier overnight session and early this morning from the u.s. ism data. but part of it is also the new money coming in not only the copper but other commodities as well. oil and heating oil among the big gainers in this session as well. back to you guys. >> thank you, sharon, very much. here's the front in stats. since 1928 the s&p 500 has

followed a positive first quarter with a positive second quarter nearly two thirds of the time. however, our next guest being carter worth at oppenheimer, he believes that's not going to happen this time. carter is here and talking numbers to make the case for the second quarter. you think we're going to have a bit of a correction, right? >> in fact, what could make it a good quarter is just that. when you think what it's derived from, correct. when an angle gets incorrect or too steep -- >> now you can play a game of semantics. >> let's have fun with the charts. this is the bull. we've all enjoyed the three-year bull, 2009, 2012. every red hash mark is 4% or greater. some are quite shallow, 4% or 5%. some are quite heavy like last sumner 2010, 20%. but what you see is after corrections you get these two to three-month advances. we now are at the longest point since the bull market began without a correction. >> and you're defining

correction here as about 4%. >> it will be a minimum, up to 10, 12. >> we've been throwing correction around meaning 20% or worse. >> that's ugly. thing what you want in order to have it be a good quarter going forward and a sustainable rally for the year is just that, have it correct a little bit. what i have here is the same five-year chart with the smoothing mechanism. with charting you have a meager version. when you get this far below, below, below or this far above, you check back or throw back. look what a 12% or 4% correction would do. it would turn us to a mean reversion and keep everything healthy. >> what's the price target? >> 13 as a minimum, more like 1275. that's what -- the further you go without resting, pausing, or breaking, the more pronounced the pause or rest. >> so we need that pause. >> we need it, we want it, and it's what history shows is

coming. >> got ichlt carter worth, always good to talk with you. very interesting. maria? >> bill, thank you. we're in the final 30 minutes until the dow closes for the day. still holding onto 60 points. technology also doing well. our next guest expects the market to take a breather this quarter but says investors could reap big rewards. we'll get that next up. plus, can a new casino save atlantic city? you're looking at the rebel, the new addition of the boardwalk and a resort casino that many hope will help to end a five-year losing streak of a popular destination. we'll have that coming up on the closing bell. >> as we take a break, take a look at the standout performer on the s&p 500. you're watching "closing bell" on a monday on cnbc. back in a moment. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the spx is on my radar.

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bob pisani down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. nice start to april. 3 to 1 advancing to declining stocks. nice expansion of new highs. in fact, we're having one of the best days throughout the whole year, in fact, so far. about 150 stocks hitting new highs here at the new york stock exchange. as far as sectors go, it's all the risks on. ones you know, materials, energies, technologies. consumer staples are up because of the nice bid we've got for avon. the one that troubles me is bonyos. we topped out and once again on the downside today. back to you. >> thank you. so after having the best first quarter since 1998, what can the markets expect for qe2 that we begin today? in the years that the s&p has recorded first quarter gapes of more than 10% it managed to close out the year in positive territory 91% of the time and it hit an average annual gain of 16%. one of our next guests, a cnbc

contributor, tells them to be ready for a rally. >> also joining us. good to see you, michael, always nice to have you. you're looking for a bit of a pause in the second quarter. tell us bhie and what you envision. >> i discontintinguish between equity markets. they're pretty much here at this point. maybe we'll get some dividends, but i think a significant part of the rally this year has already been -- it's already happened. now as far as asian markets, it's a much different story. a tremendous stimulus coming from china. i think it's going to come very soon, the next 30 to 60 days. you'll see interest rates cut and targeted interest rates as well. >> would you invest directly in china or in asian markets, hong kong, or do you do it through etfs or how do you access that power? >> i think you have to be very

careful when you invest. they have learned all is not as what they might appear in terms of financial statements. i would be buying multinationals. selected multi nationals. we were talking about companies like disney might be a good opportunity to participate. the second thing you want to make sure you do is buy etf assets. it gives you the diversification. >> your target for the s&p this year is 1400. >> that's right. >> we're above that. >> we're there. we're more than that, exactly. >> if we get a 12-month total per senl -- >> here's the thing. i think there's a little bit of a yin and a yang in the market. on the positive side, we think the earnings growth are going to be positive for the year. healthy but slowing earnings but there's a higher risk premium which puts it at a price target of 1400 for the end of the year.

they never move in straight lines. we could see a little bit of a pullback come in the next quarter or two and then toward the end of the year as we have more clarity on the election and a little bit firmer macro back drup, drop, we could see it. >> i'll tell you why. so in the upcoming earnings season, i'm a little worried that management has actually started guiding down more than up in a pretty significant way. so what we've noted is management is dwight as negative as positive on the upcoming quarter and i think that is a big of a negative for the season. >> so you're both expecting a bit of a pause in the second quarter and the catalyst it sounds like could be just earnings estimates being way too high. is there another catalyst that starts low? i guess i want to get both of your takes on where's the leadership? >> you know, think leadership is still going to be the cash

source companies. if you look at earnings for the market this year, a lot of it is coming from share buybacks so i thing they need to focus on the near term and long term, companies that can employ that by buying back shares or initiating or growing their dividends. i think that's where you're gong to see leadership. >> i think the headwind for the market we have to be aware of is where we're heading. i think that really if you think about what's happening with treasury prices in the first three months of this year, it's but pretty disastrous returns. you have investors sitting out there with tremendous interest rates. we have higher inflation, higher borrowing costs. i think that's the headwind we really have to watch for. that's why the release is going be the big headline we'll watch for, perhaps politically motivated. >> do you think that will have an impact? while history suggests it has a short-term impact, we're back to $105 a barrel right now. >> i don't think the election is a long-term issue. i think it's a short-term issue.

if you're look at market sentiment, particularly one that's had a significant rally, oil dropping by 10 or $15 a barrel would be a very bearish/bullish sign. >> i just want to be clear. if you're both expecting a downdraft from what had been the best quarter since 1998, what groups are going to get hit hardest? what do you want to sell? >> i would be taking profit in technology. financial services, i would stay in. i think dick bove is right. financial services are oversold. darling stocks, dividend stocks, think they ear going to be in a spotlight on the economy where people are going to start looking at them as almost a bond trade and i think there's going to be a selloff on some -- excuse me -- equity assets. >> you don't like the

financials. >> i don't like the financials and i do like techs. i kind of disagree with that. one of the reasons i think tech is going to maintain leadership is not because of multinational exposure but the fact that it has a lot of cash, it's a higher quality sector. i think that that continued leadership drives it to the end of the year as an upward trending sector. financials, higher beta, generally you doend see old leadership turn into new leadership so i don't see financials leading the market. >> we'll leave it there. michael, savita, thank you so much. >> how are we doing? well, we're starting to lose altitude here. the dow just 60 points off the highs. >> a censorship crackdown. up next, the top technology analysts tell us why investors should buy the stock. plus, americans own nearly $900 billion in student loans and you'll probably be surprised to find out who is phenomenal for 17% of that debt. we have that story coming up

next in the next hour of "closing bell." as we take a break, loo look at the for profit companies. we're back in two minutes. i. but first before we go to break, the dividend. which energy stock is outperforming the others so far this year? con a co-philips, exxon mobile, or sunoco? the dividend pays off after the break. [ man ] predicting the future is hard.

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just before the break as part of the dividend we asked which energy stock is outperforming the others so far this year. conocophillips, exxon mobile, or sunoco. now the payoff. sunoco, which is up more than 12% year to date. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm courtney reagan at the "closing bell" here in times square. the nasdaq composite up. take a look at shares of apple. they're initiating the coverage with 1,001 as their price target. investors like it.

shares are high owner that use. they're increasing their stake in the biotech from about 18% to just under 27% by purchasing 10 million shares. as you can see, that stock up 18% and shares of auto part retailers, o'reilly automotive hitting all-time highs todaying up about 2%. bill, back to you. >> 1,00 $1.00 price target. that last dollar is very important there. thank you, court, as we head for the close. i don't know. whatever they want to do there. we're up 26 points. the composite trading near the highs as courtney was mentioning. snapped a four losing streak. nasdaq up. it was up as many as 31 points a few minutes ago. today's winners include sirius xf radio, qiagen, sea gait,

paychex. i've got more. one of the hedge fund investors is taking his proxy battle to a new level. so why is dan lowe taking this fight to yahoo!'s backyard by launching this website? >> he's trying to beat yahoo! at its own game. yahoo! has 700 users on its site and it's normally limited to the system. this is way for any old user of yahoo! to go and understand in a very visually compelling way what dan is trying to do here. he takes pangs to describe how badly shareholders have been hurt. if you look at the microsoft offer between 31 and $33 a year, he said that was worth $30 billion and now the value of the yahoo! core biz is wobt about $2

billion. he spends a lot of time on the ailbaba. he says there's been spectacular evaluation. shareholders have been left out of the game. but it's going to be interesting to see how it piks up. as far as getting the board nominees which they take a lot of pangs to talk about. it will be interesting to see if this makes any headway. >> it's not just about a website. he's trying to make friends with facebook. >> exactly. that irony, earlier this year yahoo! targeted facebook with patented litigation and think it's pretty widely reported that dan loeb didn't think alienating them was a good thing to do. they have an agreement on that front. and if you're going to be an important player in social you have to play nicely with facebook and that is interesting that loeb is taking his fight to

facebook. 48 likes as of right now. not too many, but could be more i e-mail sure it will grow from here. kayla, thanks very much. maria? >> we're going to talk with one leading capitalist from menlo park. today we're watching chinese enter net stocks. the chinese government forced a partial shutdown of china that's two biggest my row blogging sites following a coux attempt over the weekend. touching a five-week intraday low. is today's move lower, an opportunity to buy on weakness or is this a much bigger issue? we close with gene munster with piper jaffray. thanks for joining us. what a move. three-day suspension for sina. how much is this a concern for

you for sina? >> well, really it's not a big concern and at the end of the day, sina is working. they're in business and social's going to be huge in china, so sina is in a good place. >> are you expecting more widespread tightening on china? >> it's going to be coming in ebbs and floes. it's going to be yes, there will be. also we believe that sina and the other will be in for the long haul. >> do you thing you want to buy on weakness here or should we be waiting to see how this plays out in terms of the chinese government? >> i think if you wait you're going to miss it. if you look at the facebook and the benchmark and the relationship between those two, there's probably 25 billion in value. right now the value of it. there's a lot of room to make

mistakes. >> you're also buying it on the believe tha belief that, you know, here's a chinese company that the government is going to be acting on anything they believe is not in step with their standards, so you are taking a real rivering in terms of dealing with the chinese government. >> you are, but i would look back at the last couple of years as way beau has really exploded. they've been more restricted. yet ultimately they let these companies still exist and let them -- i think they've become part of it. it's not as easy as them shutting it off. i think the last two years show us that, yes, there's going be tightening from time to time, but ultimately they're going be around and that's an investable point. >> i'm told that wabo has turned around. gene, good to have you on the program. thank you. >> thank you. >> bill, over to you. >> heading toward the closer. about 14 minutes left. kind of slowly moving south. the dow up 58 points. meantime i know we've all been

waiting and he's been waiting all weekend. brian shactman rounding up today's under the radar stocks. >> i think it's the reason i have my job now, bill. thanks very much. with all the attention on the medco deal, we can't forget about our four-legged friends. we have pet med express up 5%. i'll tell you why next on the "closing bell." every time a local business opens its doors or creates another laptop bag or hires another employee, it's not just good for business, it's good for the entire community. at bank of america, we know the impact

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welcome back. i'm on the floor of the new york stock exchange. standing here. shares that are up more than 7% of roundy's. added to the small cap index today. those of you in the midwest will know this name. it's a store chain. more than $4 billion in sales,more than 18,000 employees. the company's chairman and ceo says he feels being added to the russell's indy sees will enhance share value and you can see it has. 7% today. roundy's debut, 8% share in

february and has risen about 18% since then and since mid-march, credit suisse, jpmorgan and others have initiated coverage on this stock. it helps to be in a major average index, doesn't it, maria? >> yes, it does. there are under the radar stocks making big moves including ancestry.com. brian shactman rounding it up. brian. >> they look the family tree. a $35 price target. it's a third positive analyst move inside of a month on name. they're up 8.75%. so much talk of express scrips with the medco deal closing but don't forget the animals. pet scrips up 5% on the day. i wanted to point out because they're up today. they're the best of the bunch up 4%. sinclair broadcasting close to going green for the entire year

now. they're -- look at that. they're exactly flachlt close the acquisition of freedom communications. the auto industry is back. an election year coverage, of course, local tv doing pretty well. i people want to talk about casino stocks. we discussed them quite a bit. gambling numbers from march over the weekend. we talk about las vegas sand and wind. if you like that story going. up 2.25. year to date, up 45%. maria, back to you. >> thank you, brian. up next, we is even got a closing countdown. why one stop strategist says the sale in may and go awade strategy could-inch up into april. one of the strongest months for stocks. first take a look at the major averages as we're trading ahead for the close. eight minutes before the "closing bell" sounds. you're watching "closing bell" here on cbc, first in business worldwide. 't do this, it's just too hard." then there was a moment.

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party. the dow and s&p have not opened on a down day to begin a new month since december. the dow has not opened with a down day at the beginning of the month since november, and we're certainly not seeing that today. the rally started this morning in europe, especially after our manufacturing data came out. the ism manufacturing report was a little better than expected, and that pushed the european markets higher today. in fact, theses are the best that the european markets have seen on a daily basis in three weeks and it helped our markets as well even though the construction number was not good at all. the dow had a pretty good gain. we were up 80 points but then we started losing altitude during close. can you tell where the manufacturing report came out around 10:00 this morning and then it was off to the races and we have been pull back from that since then. the treasury markets seem to embrace the construction report, which was lower than expected, and the yield on that ten-year, in fact, a lot of them were lower, so they were buying treasuries and the yield was

coming lower. we're down 2.8% on the ten-year low. the big gainer, price of oil, despite all the talk of the release of petroleum preserve here in europe and parts of europe, the price of crude oil, back at $105 a barrel with gain of 2-plus percent and it was the same story in london. a gain of more than 2% there and for a time as we look at the sectors and how they performed along the s&p 500, energy was the best performer. despite the talk of trying to bring oil prices down, this is the problem that central governments face when they start talking about proving the market. the markets try to fight back and that's what's happening today with energy, the best gainer or among the best gapers today. material, technology, consumer staples and financials among the top five s&ps today. show me the rest of them as we

head toward the close. the other five, all of them are positive for the day. do you like energy stocks? >> you know, that point, i have kind of an agnostic view on energy and here's why. i think on the risk side you've about got oil price volatility at the highest level we've ever seen. er's buying calls on oil. what about downside risk to oil. on a valuation basis the sector is steep. i think if you look at earnings, they're pricing in, quick and dirty. they're pricing in at about $95. >> you mean oil stocks themselves. >> yep. >> okay. i worry about the downside risk to oil that no one else seems to think about. >> the cat-and-mouse game that's going on between the various governments and the central markets themselves as to whether you're going to see prices go up or down. but you would still buy stocks. >> i don't have a strong view either way.

>> obviously jobs are very important to the federal reserve. they're going to watch that number on friday. do you anticipate that the fed is going to come out with another round of quantitative easing? >> i think it's expected. i don't necessarily think that would be the greatest sign but the growth is not as strong as everyone's thinking it is. economic numbers have actually come in better than expected and if we do the quantitative easing, i think so but the numbers are not necessarily. >> you're expecting a bit of a pullback here in the market and, you know, doesn't it feel that the quantitative easing would help the market? >> sure. generally it would. think this time around it would with regarded as a sign that the congress isn't strengthens as much as what we're seeing. also equities have run so much this year or this quarter that it's a little bit too far, too fast. that's why we expect a pullback. >> they make money. thank you. always good to see you. that will do it. the first hour of the dow off