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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  April 4, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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hi, everybody. we made it to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo with the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeths. retail stocks posting the lows. today's selloff comes amid fading hope for the fed stimulus also known as qe 3. is today's decline a major turning point, you ask? funny you should ask. coming up, a host of market
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experts standing by to answer that very question. but first here's a look at the major selloffs. the dow is down 123 points right now at 13,076. the nasdaq down 1.6% or 52 points at 3,061. if the s&p closes around these levels, down over a percent at 13.98, maria. >> financials leading this decline. let's take a look at the big blue chips with less than an hour to go. financials among the big laggards. jpmorgan chase for one. citigroup down sharply. on a sidenote, we are waiting for jamie dimon's annual letter to shareholders. that is closely watched over the last few years. since the crisis of 2008 it's been closely watched.
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standard & poor's is putting the stop on credit watch negative. meanwhile, less than an hour to go, we take a look now at the key market themes here as we approach this final stretch. risk aversion is the name of the game. we're seeing renewed flight to safeties in a number of markets. treasury prices, for one, higher. yields going lower as prospects of qe 3 begin to dim. post ben bernanke's comments. issues in spain and portugal weighing on investors and they believe we will see numbers in portugal and spain in the near term. one of the biggest winners shaping up to be the biggest loser today has been a winner on the year. investors avoiding high-tech with the nasdaq posting the biggest decline. the index, of course, still up better than 7%. it's been the big leadership group for 2012.
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the key metric we're looking at the, volatility index. 1734. that was the cross before pulling back. traders are keeping an eye on this as we grapple with sharp equity declines. once again, volatility is in focus. >> we're wondering what the major headwinds are as we head to the second quarter. all market averages are pointing to a closer economy. australia is reporting a second straight month. modest challenge to the soft landing hypothesis. the post election looming and simon hobbs says it's simple profit taking. who has it right? let's make their case in the flesh. bob with the new york stock
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exchange. bob, the focus is a lot is on the european crisis and our own slowdown but it's not just here as well, right? >> there's a little bit of concern over in asia. remember, there's a debate over whether it's a hard or soft landing in china. australia actually had negative numbers, trade deficit. that hasn't happened very much. there's a little bit of a concern about that. here's the story. a lot of the problem was in cold exports and they said, uh-huh, china is the major importer and therefore this is about china slowing down. it looks like there was flooding in queensland and south wales. at any rate, the asian markets moved to the downside on this and of course some of it was a hang over from here in the united states. i'm not willing to throw in the hard landing in china. i'm still in the soft landing
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camp and i think the data will show that. >> simon, the european debt issue is still the gift that keeps on giving. you want to talk about profit taking here in the u.s. as well. but there's a reason for the profit taking. >> yeah, we've done extremely well. it's absolutely true to say that today we had a disappointing auction in spain. they didn't raises much money as they wanted and the yields shot higher. but they were not as year as they were last year. no-no ones is talking about as a systemic problem. if you look at how europe itself traded, you have another leg down. this was about the selling that erupted here in the united states. if you look at the magnitude of the move overall and the stocks that fell in europe, it's not necessarily the banks. again, it's those stocks that have done extremely well during the course of the year. bear in mind that europe can look ex be aj rated on the moves because europe was really tough in march and there was a technical breakdown on some of the indices that makes them look
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weaker and let's not lay this at the door of europe. let's leave it at the door of having not done so well for not just one but two quarters, guys. >> we pointed out how the retail investor just is not participating in market lately. >> no, they haven't. what we saw yesterday in the session and today's trading session, according to the hedge fund managers that i had a chance to talk to, it's hot money. money that is trading the market but not investing the session. a trader who probably has a much shorter time frame in many cases it's less than half a day, they are the ones moving this market and i think that is a headwind because it brings into the market an enormous amount of volatility which keeps the longer term investor very wary
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from entering into this market, bill. >> tyler, right fully so, investors are longer term, focusing on fiscal policy in a big way. >> i think that's right. i think maybe i answered the wrong question. but eventually, bill, i will be right. and the market will turn its attention. >> we're just trying to work with you here. >> thank you. if i said what is the head wind immediately, i think i'm more in simon's camp and it's basically that investors were looking for reasons to sell and he they got them in the form of fed notes yesterday. the spanish bond auction and all of the little things that have been sort of boiling up there, given how far we've come in the markets. but i think later in the year, come september 1, compost labor day, what americans and investors are going to be focused on is the looming tax debate that is going to pit obama and harry reid on the one side and romney and boehner on the other side.
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it is the big preinaugural brawl that will take place right after the elections. there will be a lame duck congress, maybe a lame duck president. a president will have been vindicated on his tax policy and it means higher taxes potentially, on dividends, capital gains, social security tax and who knows what is going to happen to overall income tax rates. let alone discuss of corporate tax rates. >> i agree with you, particularly as it relates to the very taxes sensitive to the market. even though the performance wasn't up to par, i wonder if you'll see a change in companies that payout dividends or investors go for dividend payers when dividend taxes aren't triple what they are now. and of course he mentions capital gains. >> if anything, that's where the
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small investor has been participating because it was a very much crowded trade last year. >> i think you're going to find that attempt to raise the dividend taxes are going to be -- you're going to get serious pushback. i'll play the other side of that. i don't think it's going to happen. >> you don't think it's going to happen? >> i don't think you'll see dramatic dividend cuts. >> i think maria makes an interesting point and that is, will companies advance or move dividends up into this year because -- out of caution of potentially those rates. >> by the way, we've been seeing this already. we've been seeing companies, apple and a number of others. that has pushed the pressure on companies to make a move. >> the market, of course, having its worst day in a month.
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and about a row and a half in the giant s&p heat map, telecom is in the green because it accounts for only two of the names in the telecom basket are actually in the positive today. frontier communications upgrading earlier this week and at&t getting the green light on a four-year union agreement. a heavy weakness in some of the sector names. best buy sinking about 2.5% on those reports that the s&p is putting the company on credit watch negative. whether they will be actually downgraded to junk, that's yet to be seen. radio shack getting a boost. we'll see what that actually says for the electronic retailers. let's also take a look at the shares of conocophillips and
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delta. kate kelly reporting earlier today that delta is in talks to acquire a refinery to lower its jet fuel costs. of course, a lot can happen in a deal before it gets announced. that's quite the game changer. >> that is such a smart idea. a consumer buyer refinery. great stuff. thank you, kay la. well, we talk about risk aversions, investors flee into the relative safety of u.s. debt. rick santelli is in chicago with more details. rick? >> it's been an exciting trade in treasuries. remember, how the market looked yesterday and how it looks today, let's let the market speak for itself. we're down about roughly half a dozen basis points but the true picture points up when you look at a two-day chart. yesterday we were up about a dozen and halfway back. more importantly, think about the economies supposedly doing the best. let's look at that paper. our ten-year over a one-month period, notice the high yield mark in the middle of the page
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around 238. here we are at 224. we are 14 basis points lower and that was after a four-month trading range. now let's look at the guilt in the uk. its high-water mark was 245. it's about 24 basis points down from its high mid--month yield. let's look at what is perceived as to where all of the trouble is in europe. the boom. the boom is 22 basis points below the 2.04 two-month high. that sums it up. it seems as though economic growth not being strong enough is one of the issues along with some of the problems in europe again. bill, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you very much. a decline of about 145 points. negative but off of the worst levels. >> for sure. it is clear that fear is creeping back into the markets. this year's rally is starting to run out of steam. >> how about the new concern of the health of the global economy?
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that's pushing global prices lower. >> speaking of commodities, the gold index hit a two-year low today. is this a buying opportunity or is it still too early to get back into gold? we take a look at that. >> major commodities and how they are trading. sugar by a frakz. back in a moment. you're watching the "closing bell," first in business worldwide. great shot. how did the nba become the hottest league on the planet? by building on the cisco intelligent network they're able to serve up live video, and instant replays, creating fans from berlin to beijing. what can we help you build? nice shot kid. the nba around the world built by the only company that could. cisco. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research.
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and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪ departure. hertz gold plus rewards also offers ereturn-- our fastest way to return your car. just note your mileage and zap ! you're outta there ! we'll e-mail your receipt in a flash, too. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. pandora rocks the big board.
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putting the day in perspective, the losses pale in comparison to the huge decline in oil prices hitting the lowest level in a month and a half. we have brian shactman with details on that. brian? >> very interesting. first of all, i always come here and kill volatility. a heck of a day here in the pits. a lot of them expect a bit of a bounce off of these levels. it's not about the fed minutes and the lower odds of a qe 3. this is a global story of saudi
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arabia saying they have maintained their levels. you have a pretty quiet iran geopolitical situation. and then the nine million barrel build from the eia. all of that is contributing to the bears. gold is a different story. basically, you come in with a lower odds of qe 3 and it's repricing across the board. people try to figure out where the point of reentering here. that didn't compare to silver although year to date silver is still outperforming gold, up about 3% year to date. silver 11. back to you. >> thanks so much, brian. while commodities are getting hammered, the u.s. dollar is moving higher against the basket of currencies. europe zapping demand for risk. the dollar also benefiting from yesterday's fomc minutes.
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more monetary easing is unsettling. we have senior strategist with the bank of new york mellon, cat rick specter with world markets. good to see you both. thank you for joining us. mike, let's talk about rates versus the dollar. we've seen a little bit of a backup in rates. does that continue? >> it certainly could. the fed and the market are sensitive to any move up. it could come for several reasons. one of them certainly is a growth in inflation expectations. growth in employment. inflakes has not corrected as some has figured. if we get above 250 with the ten-year treasury, that triggers the al go rit mic treasuries. >> but you think the dollar remains range bound? >> that is correct. >> are you expecting anything
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this friday that could change the scenario for the dollar? >> one of the things that has been absolutely rock solid, it's been a negative relationship between the dow and the dollar. and i think that that maintains going into nonfarm payrolls and afterwards. >> okay. so we'll just -- are you expecting a good number friday? >> yeah, we're expecting about 240. >> what about you, katherine? do you think this is temporary or the beginning of a new trend for oil? >> well, the acute driver today was certainly that very large krut oil investor build in the u.s. for the second week in a row. the other interesting thing about those numbers is that u.s. domestic preproduction is higher than we've previously realized. and we do see some short-term weakness here for oil. we think we are due for a correction lower over the next couple of months. there is more oil on the market
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and that should allow investors to build further. >> more inventory. what else might pressure the market? >> well, you know, the balance looks like we should get that correction lower. what i should add is that longer term, we see this a structurally supported oil market. >> and if you had to make a bet on the dollar near term, what does that look like, michael? >> it looks good. >> it looks good? >> yes. and if greece has a different point of view regarding sustaining the euro, it's going to be very positive for the u.s. dollar short term. >> thank you so much. we appreciate it. we're in the final stretch here. we have a market under pressure. we have 40 minutes left in the trading day for today and down on the market 115 points. well off the lows. we've been down 170. gold melting down as well. we have the "talking numbers" up next. and then burger king announcing plans to go public a day after
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overhauling its menu to help slumping sales. we'll get a debate going for you on burger king. as we take a break, take a look at the sea of red in the s&p 500. telecom is one exception. back in a moment. i look at her, and i just want to give her everything.
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all right. welcome back to the "closing bell." we start with the coebs volatility index. take a look at this chart. 5.5% on the vix index. it's off of the session highs. this morning it crossed above the 50-day moving average of 1734. there it is at 16.53. the selloff has been led by technology. the technology index down 1.5%. that's near a two-week check. let's look at the worst performers in tech. sandisk is down better than 10%, first solar, micron technology all posting pretty sharp losses, bill. >> and then there's gold, maria. levels we haven't seen since january. it begs the question, is this a golden buying opportunity or is there more downside to come? joining us to pose that question
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and answer it, director of technical research at januarying capital markets. gold has struggled so far this year. >> absolutely. >> you don't think that's going to last forever, right? >> no, it's not going to last forever. gold and all of the commodities have been fortunately equities. we feel they have come to an inflection point and we have a very long-term chart of gold. >> wow, back to '87. >> absolutely. because the market works in long cycles. >> until 2000 -- >> exactly. a cycle low in gold in 2000, trading around $250 an ounce. for the last 12 years or so, they have been outperforming the stock markets. over the short run and with this weakness that we are seeing today and over the last few months, gold is coming into a key test at around $1600 on a daily closing basis. our opinion is if you break that here, we could get some momentum to the downside.
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however, the long-term chart, the secular uptrend, stays in tack about 1350 to 1400 or so. >> could you go that low and still have the long-term trend going? >> absolutely. >> and short term you are due for a correction, aren't you? >> absolutely right. as it breaks the 1600 -- if it does, you can go another 10, 12% down to 1350, 1400. we are going to be buyers there for a major turn at that uptrend line. what are some of the ways to play this? if you look at the gold mining stocks, they have been underperforming gold on a relative basis. >> completely. >> absolutely the charts still look pretty bad. what we're going to do is a mean reversion. we're going to look at the best that has been destroyed and close to potential capitulation. >> and you're talking about new on mining? >> that would be one of them. the stock has drastically oversold against the moving averages. stocks trading in the upper 40s. the trade potential is upper
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50s, possibly low 60s. that's just to get it back to the moving. >> all right. holding out hope that's talking numbers. maria? >> bill, thank you. 30 minutes dow industrial and nasdaq down in the double digits. with the market slumping again in the u.s., is it time to look abroad? we did have a disappointing spanish debt auction. we have two market experts weighing in on the international landscape as we take a break, take a look, with the exception of merck, procter & gamble and at&t and caterpillar. you're watching the "closing bell." back in a minute. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i'm constantly working my screens. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 checking the charts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 looking for support, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 resistance, breakouts, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a few other tricks that i'll keep to myself. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's how i trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i do it all with charles schwab, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 because their streetsmart edge platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 helps me trade quickly, intuitively.
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hi, i'm bob business sean knee. the dour was down 107 points earlier in the day. europe closes and we do a little better. we're not far from hitting the highs of the day at about 9:45 or. so the important thing is
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volume. 2.9 billion shares. that's about average volume. no heavy volume today. number three point, volatility dropping to around 16. that's where it's been for quite a while. no spike up in the fear index or in the vix futures, i might add. bill? >> yeah, it has pulled back there. we'll be highlighting it later. thank you, bob. >> this morning on "squawk box," some of the world's most powerful equity players and head fund managers offered their insights into the state of the global market. among the heavy hitters is david bonderman. here's what he had to say about the state of play in three foreign regions. >> the u.s. is not in trouble it's much less than meets the world. >> asia is long-term winner in this game, in the century, but it's highly volatility and a
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difficult place to rest. >> and in a day when the markets are seeing the biggest selloffs, it's time to look at market strategist david of morgan stanley smith barney. good to see you both. thank you for joining us. we had a disappointing spanish debt auction. >> 69. >> we have renewed worries. >> you were very disappointed in that, weren't you? >> it was a rough auction for them. as you know, they said that they are in extreme difficulty. it's the fourth largest european union country, great country so we want to see spain calm down. they are up almost 80 basis points from march 1st, as you know. >> so my question really was, does this create new worries for the euro zone and the impact on the united states? >> i think the worries have been there. the market traded pretty volatilely last year on that same pessimism from europe.
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i think what we've seen this year is some optimism, really good data coming out of the u.s. that's what we've been more focused on and what has taken the market up 12% in the first quarter. the fears haven't disappeared. they are just rearing their heads again. we're going to continue to see that throughout 2012. >> but is the message of the market that the economy is only as good as the monetary policy that is good to support it? >> they are looking for their new dose of monetary stimulus, the fed minutes, that's why they sold off yesterday. that's part of the thing. >> the last several months, right? >> it's true. we want to look at profits. also want to wish everybody a happy easter, a happy passover and i want to wish ibm and the masters, great. >> he's going there. don't get him started. >> i'm not going to. we're not going to go there. we have a whole discussion of this. >> profits are the key note. >> let's not even go there. >> what do you expect for first
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quarter expectations? help us out. >> profits are at an all-time high. i think that's going to continue. but what the market really wants from here is revenue growth and i think we're going to see that selectively. probably a little bit more broadly than i believed we would coming into the year. so i'm pretty optimistic that earnings expectations will be matched. >> really? >> for q1. >> okay. >> and that things are pretty stable where they are at. that being said, the market is up pretty strong just for the first quarter of the year. >> but will we actually see that revenue growth later on in the year? because going into the first quarter, going into the reporting season of the first quarter which ended up being a very good quarter for corp rats once again, the analysts are going to take those numbers down. by the end of the year are we going to see that revenue growth or not. >> well, i'm seeing optimism from them for the first time in a long time. i believe there's been a lot of
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health created over the last three months in the marketplace for companies in general. >> the key is to watch what management says. you want to watch when the earnings season starts in earnest and see how they give the outlook for the rest of the year. don't forget there are four asset classes. stocks, bonds, commodity, and apple. apple is a different asset set. >> we think it can go to 720 or higher. zu. >> wow. >> we told you to buy it at 325, if you recall. we've made stupid calls. that was a bad one. >> would you buy apple? >> i don't spend too much time evaluating it. >> what's your favorite right now? >> i like green hill. it's an investment that koor lats with two of the themes that we have in the marketplace and merger and activity growth has been very soft over the last several years because financing
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rates are very low. and the fact that companies are looking for revenue growth means that the market is broad for acquisition. we not only believe that company is undervalued relative to its market asset base but we like that they are in. >> good to see you both. >> thank you. >> heading towards the close, markets sort of coming back here a bit. the dour down about 100 points. >> and yahoo! announcing a new round of layoffs. the bullish trade from one analyst who says the beaten-down stock could be ready. >> and why breaking up the big banks could be a reality and why it could take a drastic toll on the industry. >> take a look at banks. that's where the leadership is on the downside. back in a moment. >> announcer: but, first, before we go break, the dividend.
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which retailer stock has shot up the most this year? dillard's, macy's or sachs? the dividend pays off after the break. [ donovan ] i hit a wall.
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just before the break as part of the dividend we asked which retailer stock has shot up the most this year? dillard's, macy's, or saks? now the payoff, dillard's, which is up over 40% to date. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm courtney reagan. at the nasdaq, we are under significant pressure. we are off the lows of the day. take a look at shares of the biotech issuing a very serious recall. a class one recall of the heart pump device because it may cut off blood flow which can cause very serious heart problems.
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it's still down but it has recovered. bill, back to you. >> bill, today yahoo! announced its fifth mass layoff. will it be enough to help turn the country around? of course, these are tough moves to swallow. jon fortt is outside of his headquarters in sunnyvale, california. jon, how much would you say these cuts are going to help yahoo!'s bottom line? >> reporter: well, interesting question, mere yeah. i did some digging for some numbers. look at yahoo! over six years before and after the cuts. take a look at the layoff record. back at the end of 2007, yahoo! had 14,300 employees, similar today. they did nearly half a dozen rounds of layoffs of 4,000 employees and yet at the end of
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last year they had 4,100 employees, just 200 fewer. yahoo! went down in sales, operating was up slightly. some question based on how effective these layoffs will be. >> what is the next big milestone we should be watching? >> reporter: the end of june is when yahoo! has its shareholder meeting. that's when the proxy fight should come to a head. that's important because, one, it will determine what yahoo! is worth and probably only after that will yahoo! be able to spin off the asian assets. that's what investors are looking at as far as unlikely data. >> meanwhile, signing on to yahoo!'s restructuring, he says yahoo! should place their
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investment on the stock. john joins us right now. why are you so bullish on yahoo!? good to see you. >> thanks for having me back, maria. we think it's a support level this will get us to 1325 and after we do that we want to buy the 20 to participate in the upside that does happen to materialize. so we think that those two points, 15 and 20, are basically where we've been trading and we're looking for a move outside of that trading range. >> it's a real technical look. what about the fundamentals? do you think the company has done enough to climb back up the ladder? >> well, i think that this is the beginning of the first step. obviously a third point and daniel, his pushing yahoo! to make some changes, the changes are coming.
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they are honing the message and the job cuts today are just the beginning of what they are trying to do at yahoo! and bring this company back around. the other two things is ali baba are two assets. there's not a lot of build out there. the job cuts are happening in the united states but yet the growth is really in japan and china. so that's really a good call on the growth there and as we look, china coming online, they are going to increase the minimum wage there by 50% by 2015. so those things are all positives that yahoo! is right in the middle of right now. >> jon, god to have you on the program. thanks so much. >> bill, over to you. >> market holding steady here as we head towards the close. 15 minutes left. dow is down 113 points at the moment. when we come back, kayla will talk about the under the radar
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stocks. >> the stock is up. we'll tell you about that and other under the radar names coming up. life moves fast. we're often so busy dealing with what's in front of us that we lose sight of the big picture. that's why it's good, every now and then, to pause, take a new look at your financial plan and make sure you're headed in the right direction. for more than 140 years, pacific life has been offering integrated solutions that help to create a secure financial future. ask a financial professional about pacific life - the power to help you succeed. not quite knowing what the next phase was going to be, you know, because you been, you know, this is what you had been doing. you know, working, working, working, working, working, working. and now you're talking about, well you know, i won't be, and i get the chance to spend more time
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jpmorgan chase is down more than 2%. a big down day partly because of the markets at a whole are tumbling and coincides with the bank agreeing to pay $20 million penalty imposed by the lehman brother's overextended credit enduring the bankruptcy filing and give his view of the world. that will be out shortly. mary thompson will have a breakdown of that letter. until today's downturn, jpmorgan's stock has made a comeback into positive territory on a 52-week basis. with the selloff, it's now back
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to the low, break even. maria? >> bill, thank you. web m.d., one of the under the radar stocks is making a big move. let's go to kayla. over to you. >> web m.d. is moving 9.5% to the downside today. the company doing a dutch auction for some of its shares. the company saying yesterday it expecting to buy 5.77 million shares at $26 apiece. the market is not happy with that price. let's take a look at southwest airlines. that's upgraded by barclays capital today. up 2.25% to finally, i want to look at super value. in this case is was raising or lowering the price target by $1 to $5.50. just about 10 cents where it was
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today. >> thank you, kayla. right after the break we have the closing countdown. our all-star team of experts are standing by. first, a look at the major averages. do you industrials off the lows. down 180 at the low. down 104 right now. back in a moment. great shot. how did the nba become the hottest league on the planet? by building on the cisco intelligent network they're able to serve up live video, and instant replays, creating fans from berlin to beijing. what can we help you build? nice shot kid. the nba around the world built by the only company that could. cisco.
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as we head towards the trade, time for the countdown and so far it looks like the dow will finish with another triple digit decline. this is going to the second trading day this year with the dow having a triple digit decline. the other one was a month ago on march the 6th and the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq are both seeing the highest number of new 52-week lows that we've seen this year. so the selloff was swift. and i want to look at yesterday's numbers. we compare it to yesterday as we look here where we only had that two-hour trading day after the
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fed minutes came out. they sold everything except the dollar. that means something else was going to go slower and that was going to be europe. the dollar continued higher. this is the dollar index. as for the dow, we had that stutter step yesterday. dramatic selloff at 2:00 eastern when the fed minutes came out. then it came back a bit. now we're down today, about 113-point decline at the moment and that didn't make a the lo of sense. now they are back again. they bought the bond market and that brought yields short today town 10.2% as we head towards the close. oil continues now at $101 an engine tore data out today that showed again, a much larger than expected build. demand for crude oil and that's a refinery issue.
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that's not a supply issue. we're down $1.93. gold sharply lower. the long-term sharper we suggest going 1350 on gold and uptrend would still be in place. we're still at 1618. it's holding steady at that 1600 level. if there's a saving grace for the bulls today in the stock market, it would be the vix which is up but it is well below that 20 level that really starts to show the fear factor in the markets. we're at $16 and change. a gain of 4.4% but still well below. >> it's lower today and if it was lagging the market it's higher today. telecom utilities, number two on the list. followed by health care and
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industrials and then on the bottom five, you'll see some of the high-profile sectors that have done so well so far in 2020, like technology, like the energy sector, and some others. and the financials certainly have done well. let me bring in ann of wells fargo advantage funds. when you have this kind of period where the market is rethinking its view of the world, like the fed minutes yesterday, this can become an opportunity to take profits or to buy. what are you inclined to do here? >> well, it can be an opportunity. i think 12% in one quarter may have been too much for the market given the fact that not a lot has changed since the end of last year. it feels like we are in for a rest period if not a corruption. if i could take my choice between the economy being slightly better and the fed having to do less and -- i would take the economy doing better. even though the economy sold off on that, it could be positive. the one thing that i think the
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market is afraid of is, is some of the data in the u.s. inflated because of weather and other issues we've had? i do think that the economic data has been broad enough that it has proven now that we're at least in recovery mode, which is further than europe can say. so we're in a better position. >> would you be inclined to go with those sectors that were leading the way up so far in the first quarter of this year, like the financials, like technology, some of those sectors? or would you pick the laggards and hope that they play catchup? >> we're trying to find stuff that has been ignored by the marketplace. we look at where the market hasn't paid much attention and that's the right way to do it. although we're pretty optimistic about what could happen this year, showing some type of recovery, we want to be sensitive to what we pay. >> sectors that you like here, what do you say? >> i still like energy.
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even though, as you alluded to earlier, what we pay at the gas pump is incredibly high. the stocks have been lagging. i like that. i also think there's a lot of stocks within the health care that have been completely ignored because of some of the things that we're worried about. >> do you anticipate that yields are going to go much further, if the perception continues that the fed is done providing liquidity for those markets, it's possible that they could go higher? >> it certainly is possible. rates have been low for so long. the fed's been trying to hold them down and communicating that they will hold them down, making sure that the strength is real. but i think we definitely stand a chance if things are recovering that yields go up. that's a positive longer term for us. >> utilities. i had a retiree tell me that he's hanging in there because of the dividends that they pay but it's been a laggard here in 2012
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after outperforming the market. where do you stand on this sector that has been so near and dear? >> i think that the flow in 2011 was to utilities. it was a safety net, a place to get a higher dividend. but i do think the markets are ignoring utilities and so the market is turning away. it's an area that is a highly regulated area, an area that it's not an area that i'm too attracted to right now. and yet the safety net of what utilities can be, i can see the attraction to it. >> would you buy gold here? >> gold is interesting because i think longer term it does have a good chance. >> thank you, bill.

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