could come back to play. >> joey. >> long hewlett packard by the time you see me tonight at 5:00. >> leaving the show to buy shares. that does it for us. follow me on twitter. "power lunch" begins now. scott, thank you very much. three hours to go in the trading day and the jobs report on good friday is making for a pretty bad monday. stocks well off their midday lows down about 1%. and that's coming after the biggest weekly decline of 2012. meantime, earnings season kicks off in earnest tomorrow. will those numbers derail or jump start a rally in the markets? and mauling the media. citi downgrades a basket of media stocks today pointing to softer ratings and slower advertising growth for cable. but that doesn't mean you can't make money in media. we'll tune in to some of the winners. plus, risk reckoning. with red across the board, we'll be looking at the big global risk factors that are keeping bankers and top investors up at

night. someone to spell out the doom and gloom, ty. >> with our guest, julia boorstin and simon hobbs, i'm tyler mathisen. welcome everybody. we're all over the markets today because "power lunch" begins right now. if you're just tuning in, where have you been? disappointment on the jobs number hitting the market today. that really has been the tenor of the session so far. stocks are off their lows. financials and industrials amongst the worst performers. the dow down triple digits at the moment. the s&p down 1%. and the nasdaq, again, off its lows. taking the pulse of the markets, oil has been sinking on global growth worries. and there you see we're down now $1.75 perhaps a silver lining in today's selloff the bonds are certainly rallying partly on a flight to safety. that's pushing the yields on the 10-year up pretty much close to

2%. as you can see that's where we are at the moment. and the fear factor, the vix, also spiking there as you can see. midday movers so far this monday we have to start of course inevitably with a few losers. avon is falling despite the fact it's got a new ceo from johnson & johnson. problems with a deb fib later. but they're seeking a retraction on that story. regions financial down 3.6% along with some of the other financials. that sector getting hit along with materials as we mentioned. although it's not gloom so far today, let's highlight a few of the winners. check out aol. you lucky devils if you're in that. the company's selling a billion dollars in patents to microsoft came from left field. jon fortt with more on that in a moment. apple and priceline here importantly both hitting 52-week highs. apple despite a downgrade from btig. let's link in with the trading

floors. bob pisani at the nyse. courtney reagan tracking oils dive at the nymex. bob, let's kick off with you. >> thank you, simon, good to see you as always. 5-to-1 declining advancing stocks. that hasn't changed, but what has changed is major indices. we're still on the downside. we were at our lows just around the open that you can see right there. and a little little before 11:00 what would have been the european close. since about noon we've really come off our lows rather noticeably here. i think one factor that may have been -- might have played a part here is the dollar. we had an interesting drop in the dollar around noon. that tends to help commodity based stocks. that's what i'm talking about. this is an intraday chart. didn't hear much from the currency desk about what was happening there. remember something, europe's been closed since wednesday, thursday and friday and today off, they really know how to do easter, don't they? bottom line is i think we need direction from them. here's banks weak all day. obviously prospects for lower

rates or more qe-3 is not good for bank profit. so it doesn't shock me that we're seeing some of the big banks particularly regional banks down about 3% for the day. elsewhere the home builders i talked about the by fir kags. lennar and toll brothers. toll brothers should be outperforming and they had earlier in the day because they're a move up buyer. the market showing some signs of splitting, but still not a completely clear pattern. bottom line here is this is a low volume selloff. courtney, we're seeing some moves off of the lows in commodities as well. >> yeah, we certainly have, bob. of course this isn't the first time the commodities market has had a chance to react to the jobs data we got on friday because we were closed here just like many of the other markets here in the u.s. crude oil actually falling below $101 in the may contract at one point today. we have since bounced back a

bit. part of that reason is the disappointing jobs data continuing the concern that perhaps consumption will continue to be low for oil prices. also we're tracing what's going on in equities, where you are, bob, we believe this could be the beginning of somewhat of a downward trend for crude oil as we move forward. let's look at nat gas. hitting lows not seen in over a decade. we're somewhat near the flat line but still lower. gold moving higher but off the session highs. and we're looking at inflation in china as some of the reason for that move in addition to the jobs report. tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. let's switch on the "power lunch" power surge and get to some of the stories driving the day. that lousy jobs report followed by today's big selloff putting pressure perhaps on the fed for more easing. what's the next trigger point for chairman bernanke and our economy? our steve liesman we're going to head to the next round of key data that may push the fed into more action. steve. >> yeah, tyler. i want to spend a second talking about the friday data because i think one thing the federal reserve is asking itself as they figure out what to do next is

which past are we going to be going back to? what's the right model here? is it the recent past here where we've had these spring and summer reversals. you can see we went negative back in '10. and then we came down from 200,000 down below 100,000 here in 2011. or what about maybe what we saw on friday was this past where we had pretty strong good job growth in 2004 after a slow recovery in jobs. and then we had these couple -- these three data points here below -- more than 200,000 below the trend. guess which one the fed is worried about. take a look at the minutes from the fomc meeting released last week. a number of members perceived a nothing negligible risk could progress as had occurred in 2010 and 2011. they're very concerned we get this springtime swoon again. what data are they looking at? we'll get the february results data tomorrow on the 10th. the job openings and turnover

survey. claims significant on the 12th. inflation will limit how much the fed feels like it can do. if it's running hotter than they expect, it might limit additional quantitative easing. retail sales will give us a brief read on the consumer. claims again on the 19th leading up to the fomc meeting on the 24th and 25th. in the meantime, there's a lot of fits. this week along bernanke speaking tonight, not speaking about the economy or monetary policy, but he will take questions. lo lo lockhart. and this day, i was going to take this day off, not anymore. the vice chairman of the fed speaking on wednesday night. sometimes he's an advanced guard for what the chairman's feeling. plosser, ras kin, i think it's nine of 17 members of the fed and bernanke here on friday again make another chance to ask questions and tell the markets what he's thinking about quantitative easing. tyler. >> steve, you pointed to the importance of the jobless claims numbers on thursday. is there a level at which the fed might start to worry?

>> i want to show you a graphic here on that. maybe we'll start right here when we had that springtime -- summertime swoon we are talking about. you can see they had come down, they elevated back up above that 400,000 level. and you can see here, this is where we are right now. and the forecast for just this thursday is 355. if that number starts to come back up again, that's clearly going to get the fed's attention and start to put that qe back into play. we want to watch those two data points, tyler, the 12th and 19th on claims. >> thank you, steve. >> thanks, steve. we now have breaking news on facebook. facebook making a bik acquisition for a billion dollars. let's go to kayla tausche for the headlines. kayla. >> julia, we're just getting a press release coming out this moment saying facebook is going to pay $1 billion for cash and shares for instantgram. they just closed a recent round of fund raising in the last month. it's unclear what facebook was

trying to pay last summer, but those talks fell apart and they were obviously not successful as we're getting this announcement now. they're paying cash in shares but the acquisition is supposed to close in the next 30 days meaning likely the shares they're getting are pre-ipo shares. that will be interesting to watch to see how that turns out for the recipients at instagram getting those, but a billion dollars in cash and shares to facebook, this is that vintage photo sharing application that a lot of facebook users use on top of their platform already. a very core business for them. i know you've also been covering this company closely. >> absolutely. i think with the ipo we all knew facebook would be looking at some acquisitions. what do you think about this price for instagraham? do you think this means there are more acquisitions in the works maybe a company like tumbler? >> i don't know about tumbler. obviously that's been speculated before. facebook did say in use of proceeds apart from the tax hit it was going to take, bringing some of those employee-restricted stock units to market that it was also going

to be looking for acquisitions. they also raised $8 billion in debt. a big expansion from the debt that it had previously. they have a lot of capacity as far as money to spend on acquisitions goes. this could just be the first in a line of deals that they could do. but with an ipo in the pipeline, they obviously have one big deal that they are looking at in the next couple months. >> great. thanks so much, kayla. certainly a story we'll continue to watch. >> let's pull back and consider the bigger picture here. we mentioned to you earlier on the surge in the bond market today pushing the yields on the 10-year back down to 10%. let's cross live to the cme and holly liss. welcome to the program. is this because we're now more do downbeat about the economy? or we think we might get more action to suppress interest rates from the fed? >> well, i think one of those follows the other. so i think both of them are contributing to this rally we're seeing in futures prices and this decline in 10-year yields close to 2%. i mean, first you started with the important nonfarm payroll

data and then you get the complete reassessment of whether qe-3 is on the table or not. i mean, following the minutes we had midweek last week, many people seemed to think that the qe-3 was off the board. and now you get nonfarm payroll and it's back in play. so i think if we start seeing more economic data that's going to confirm that notion, and certainly it could come in the way of inflation data later this week, if that really stays tame, then that could also put qe-3 back in play. one thing that we don't talk about too frequently, even though we discuss the economic data possibly getting softer and that could have the fed be more accommodative, keep in mind also that the fed players that are voters this year when they changed over in january, they're much more neutral to dovish than they were last year. so they may be more inclined to be more accommodative than they were last year even. >> interesting. holly, thank you very much. >> shares of aol soaring right now bucking today's big down trend. aol stock at a new 52-week high. take a look at that chart. wow.

after announcing it's selling hundreds of its patents to microsoft for more than $1 billion in cash. jon fortt in silicon valley with more on what this means for both companies. jon. >> yeah, julia. i guess it's just a billion dollar day, isn't it? aol's got 300 more patents they're going to hold onto and license to microsoft. so what kind of patents does aol have? let's put them up on the screen. many are in e-mail, instant messaging, browser and search. some of the technologies of the old aol empire. the price here surprised some people. one last month thought they would only get a quarter of this price. here's what ceo tim armstrong said about the deal earlier on squawk. >> the deal we did is tremendous because it basically gives us the ability to sell assets that we weren't using, still maintain a very clear and distinct i.p. portfolio and to basically leverage our tax attributes. so this will all as much as possible return to shareholders and firms of cash or buyback.

>> what's interesting about this, aol's market cap was under $2 billion before today. and now today's prices if aol had all this deal's cash in hand, its market cap would be more than half cash. also consider more than 99% of the stock is held by institutions. this will give aol room to run but could also attract takeover speculation. microsoft, its stock is down with the broader market. this move certainly positions the software giant better in web and messaging i.p. which is as important in the mobile era as it was on the pc. as more software moves to the browser, this is cover microsoft needs, julia. >> interesting to watch that takeover speculation for aol. meanwhile, sony slashing thousands of jobs in a major shakeup. so what is sony's new ceo planning? jon, what do you think? >> well, when i sat down with him earlier this year, he talked about the need to right the tv business. that's a huge business for them. mun losing. they're up against samsung which has a lot more vertical control

in that business. this is a 6% cut. you wouldn't think that this is a major re-organize though it's a lot of people, it's probably the first of many things to come, julia. >> thanks so much, jon. >> and straight ahead, market's getting walloped today on the heels of the jobs report. earning season kicking off tomorrow and that could put stocks under more pressure some say. so will earnings derail any rally? and how do you play it? we'll tell you. >> and as we head to the break, just check out shutterfly. the stock down on facebook's plan breaking news there to buy instagram. more on that as we proceed through the afternoon on cnbc. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm jackie deangelis. time for three stock stories in 30 seconds. let's go ahead and start with rimm. some rumblings that some senior level executives are leaving the company of course as it's re-evaluating strategic options. investors looking at this stock on a positive note today up 2.1%. also watching shares of illumina after roesh said it would be considering willing to up the bid. illumina rejected the bid but this one up about 1% today. also taking a look at shares of yahoo!. the company announcing some layoffs last week. about 2,000 positions. there are rumblings we might see more lean and trimming happening at yahoo!.

the executives are going to hold a staff meeting tomorrow to discuss that as well. but for right now shareholders think a leaner yahoo! is positive. up about .6%. tyl tyler, back to jou. >> jackie, thank you. ahead of earnings season that kicks off tomorrow, there are concerns the numbers will be disappointing. are earnings a headwind for the market? joining us chief market strategist at first allieied ma and bill zulo. bill, when you were last on, you said the market felt a little toppy to you. it was time to get defensive. you must feel that way today too. >> yeah. absolutely, tyler. our view hasn't changed. the last time we spoke i talked about 2012 being a range year in u.s. equities. range 1400, 1420 in the s&p, 1305 ntd dow. so far topped out 1420 in the s&p, little shy of 1305 in the dow. now the markets have rolled over. which is what we expected.

i think it's a reflection of a couple of things. you see slowdown in china, recession in europe. but i think friday gave you a glimpse of what you're going to see in the u.s. going forward. i think a lot of the strength and optimism in january and february was a result of the unseasonably warm weather that we had. i think it pulled forward gains. and anything consumption related, consumer spending, retail sales, some of the jobs data, some of the housing data i think going forward is going to be a more difficult definitely more difficult going forward. i think as far as earnings go it's going to be hard to grow the top line in a situation where you have large sectors of the world economy struggling. in the middle it's going to be hard to grow your margins with all the cost cutting we've already done. we've already had a lot in the way of productivity gains. i think we are going to see some headwinds in terms of earnings going forward. >> craig, how about you? you see a mild correction. do you disagree with bill in any other really material ways here? >> i agree that we're in for a bumpy second quarter because we

had a 32% rally in the s&p 500. and we're due for a correction. i will disagree slightly in the sense i think we're going to come off the back end okay though. i say that because expectations for the first quart earnings are 5% year over year growth. very low bar to get over. and on the profit side, look, i mean the risk that people say is profit margins are at an all-time high. that's true, but the driver, unit labor costs and intrinsic expense, neither are going anywhere any time soon. i think we'll have a bumpy quarter but i think we're going to be okay. >> for give me for suggesting but for people to rotate. it's very interesting the sort of stocks that rose during the course of the first quarter clearly the defensives were left behind. is it obvious now to rotate into utiliti utilities? >> good question, simon.

i think the most vulnerable are going to be the sectors that are most leveraged to, you know, pick up an economic growth. i think the financials have had a great run. i'd trim there. some of the cyclicals. some of the commodity-related names as well. and i rotate into things like large cap pharma, pph, consumer staples, utilities. and i think that will be a play as to whether any potential storm. remember last year s&p 500 closed flat on the year, but between the beginning of may and the beginning of october, the market sold off over 20%. not saying we're going to have that kind of a down move here, but i think you have the potential for good size pullback. and you want to play defense right now. if that means taking some money out of the market, buying some puts, selling some calls or rotating into more defensive sectors, i think that's what makes sense here. >> bill, craig, thank you very much. we're a little pressed on time. have you back soon. >> up next on monday media mauling, citi downgrading a

whole slew of media stocks including disney, cbs and news corp. cable ratings are slumping. is the whole sector bombing or are there still buys in the group? >> as we head to break, check out the action in the s&p 500 sectors. there are ten of them. all ten of them are down. the big laggard, industrials, down 1.23%. utilities the best of a bad bunch down .5%.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm seema mody. a rare breakthrough in alzheimer treatment. an fda approval of the first diagnostic agent that can spot brain plaque in patients being evaluated for alzheimer disease. without this, brain plaque could only be detected after a patient died. this diagnostic test will hit the market in june. priced at roughly $1,600 which doesn't include the cost of the brain scan. at this point neither amavid or scan are covered by medicare. but lily is under discussion to work out reimbursement. until that happened, analysts says lily sales are limited to $100 million a year. julia, back to you. >> thanks, seema. big media stocks getting mauled on the heels of a big downgrade at citi group earlier today. disney, discovery and cbs among the groups. senior media analyst with standard & poors remains mostly

bullish. welcome so much to "power lunch." >> thank you, julia. >> so jason at citi, he's very concerned about the problems in the cable industry saying the ratings are down, looking at what that must mean for advertising. do you see problems in terms of the cable industry? and what does that mean for your outlook on the sector? >> well, we share some of those concerns, but we believe that despite the valuation runup that we've seen in this sector, there's still some room for further rally. to be sure we're spreading some digestion of recent gains we've seen from the media center and we expect that q-1 earnings could in fact lead to good expectations. when all is said and done, we still believe the fundamental and macro indicators are still. >> strong on cbs, buy on discovery. is there a concern about the cable channels bleed over into

those stocks? >> well, those recommendations are precisely for some of the reasons, julia, that i know you've talked about before. you've got the -- some of the nay sant revenues from digital streaming. you've got the continued healthy advertising environment which we expect this up front to represent as well. having said that, we do believe there are some indicators out there that weren't a little bit more caution out there precisely the tv ratings declines you eluded to and some of the other macro indicators, the job report as well as the squeeze from gasoline prices. these are all concerns from a broader discretionary. >> you're cautionly optimistic. what about netflix? is netflix eating into these ratings? >> that's a very good question that we're still exploring at this point. i think the jury's still out. there's indicators either way that netflix could in fact be cannibalizing some of the traditional ratings.

but i don't think those are conclusive yet. we'll be watching for data points. >> what's your outlook on sony? what do you make of the job cut sns is this what the company needs to do to turn things around? >> the whole recommendation on sony, we think these actions are called for from way out. still off operating margin of 5% which now looks unachievable for next fiscal year. any time you have a company like sony where the major division consumer electronics, which accounts for more than half of revenues, is in a loss making position whereas the entertainment division, the film and music account for, you know, about slightly about a quarter of revenues and a significant part of the operating income, i think it speaks to major realignment needed to kind of set things straight at sony. >> so, tuna, one final question on sony. do you think this company could really become an innovator like apple again? or is it too late? >> well, arguably they have a

lot of catching up to do. i wouldn't necessarily benchmark them to apple. any company would have a hard time catching up to apple. but i think for sony i think it's always been right between the devices and the software. they've talked about a hundred screens between the interconnected tvs, blu-ray and play station. i think that's where the new ceo has his work cut out for him. >> great. thank you very much, tuna. simon. over to you. >> thank you very much, julia. up next we'll reset all the market action for you and go live to the new york merck for the closing prices on today's metals trade. and then we will take a deep dive on natural gas. there's plenty of supply. it is very, very cheap. but is the infrastructure there to support nat gas cars? and which stocks in this space can pay off for you? we have it all in two minutes.

we're still bleeding red on the major indices if not heading back down again on the dow 115 points lower. let's get caught up on all the trade so far with seema mody.

seema, over to you. >> simon, as you pointed out, jobs being the key market mover today. the dow suffering triple digit losses. the s&p and nasdaq following suit. the vix spiking today up 9.5% indicating that fear is back in the game. take a look at gold. it's spiking higher today. this is the end to a jewel strike in india. courtney will have more details. right now up .9%. oil moving lower and the u.s. dollar also in focus. let's also focus over to some hmo stocks. morgan stanley health care index having its worst day in eight months on news ohio will not renew contracts in 2014 to four current medicaid providers. wellcare as well as meri group four stocks hurting right now. look at molina and centene being hit the most.

moli, na down better than 24%. now over to courtney with a check on all commodities, gold and other metal prices getting ready to close right now. courtney, what's the latest? >> that's right. we're in the metals pit. this is again the first chance that the commodities markets have had a chance to react to the jobs data. that's part of the reason we're seeing gold move higher. we're up about $15. that's off the highs of the day certainly there's a little bit of renewed home that perhaps there could be monetary easing in the future after the disappointing jobs data. seema, you mentioned that india gold jewelry trade strike. that's over. for 20 days that sort of put a damper on gold prices. and china actively buying into gold on some inflation worries. because of those inflation worries, copper is lower. but also off the lows of the day. julia, back to you. >> thanks so much, courtney. now, staying with commodities. nat gas prices at new decade lows. never before has it been so abundant and cheap at the same time. all day on cnbc we're drilling

down on how that phenomenon is shaping industry, impacting consumers and the economy. our phil lebeau is at a gas station in chicago looking at demand from the auto industry and the infrastructure to support it. phil. >> reporter: and, julia, it's a limited infrastructure. here in chicago a city of what, eight million people, there are only two, two nat gas filling stations. this is one of them on the near south side of chicago. $2.65 a gallon. $2 cheaper than if you bought regular gasoline. this is the problem for the industry. it's a lack of infrastructure. in fact, if you were to drive from new york to denver, look at this map. there are only 22 nat gas filling stations between new york and denver. you'd have to stop at places like state college or ann arbor. surely a couple places here in chicago. but there are big stretches in between where there's no nat gas stations. that's because if you look around the country, there are just 505 public nat gas fueling stations in the united states. compare that with more than

157,000 service stations that sell gasoline. as a result, those few people around the country who do have nat gas powered vehicles, they don't like to stray too far from home. >> not having gas to fill up. if it's going to be under $1 a gallon, even $2.40 here beats my diesel i'm paying $4.08 now. it's a big savings. >> reporter: once again, take a look at what we're seeing nat gas sitting at a 10-year low. yes, these are incredibly cheap prices. again, so little infrastructure, six states in this country do not even have one single nat gas fueling station. this is the big dilemma for people who are saying, listen, the automakers ought to build more, tyler, automakers are not going to build cars that run on nat gas only if they know people will have trouble filling them up. and that's the whole chicken and egg dilemma for the automakers as well as for the nat gas industry. there's just so little infrastructure. tyler. >> phil, thank you very much.

as natural gas continues to trade at decade lows, what are the best ways for investors to play the sector? joining me dan dicker, cnbc contributor, welcome, dan. >> thanks, ty. >> call me stupid, but prices are at decade lows, little more than $2 per million cubic feet. there's ultimate amounts of gas in the ground we're getting out more than ever and there's a ton in storage. why would i buy it at all? >> you're talking about natural gas or natural gas stocks? >> natural gas stocks. >> no. i wouldn't call you stupid. >> just naturally stupid. >> this is something, tyler, that has to work because economically we have a differential between natural gas and crude oil. 45 to 1. that just cannot possibly last. now, we have a lot of things that will keep pressure on natural gas at least under the short-term. but this is what value investing is all about. trying to find a long-term thesis and finding the stocks

that have been beaten down based upon what we hope is a short-term problem, this kind of, for example, this 45-to-1 ratio, but we've had a very warm winter. certainly a lot of new production from shale plays. all of this will disappear over the course of a moderate amount of time, two, three years. at which point you're buying stocks, obviously, for the long haul. that will just not 10% or 20%, it will double or triple. >> some of the stocks you like, tick through them here, they may not perform for a while. if you buy these, dicker's not saying they're going up next month. >> not next week, not next month. and maybe not for a few months. >> but maybe if i look back three years from now i'm going to say, boy, i'm glad i followed his advice. >> this is some of the best, best value. not only in the energy space but i think in the entire s&p 500 here in natural gas. >> let's take a look at some of the ones that you like. i believe one was called encana. >> it's a canadian natural gas play. they have a liquefy plant.

they have assets in hainesville and texas. pricing natural gas at $1.50 on mcf. we have a ways to go before it's actually priced correctly. >> sand ridge is number two. we just saw that stock down about 40% over the past year. >> again, these are all stocks that are going to be incredibly leveraged to the natural gas play. they're going to be out of favor for a while. they have tremendous assets doing more with less in the mississippi and perm yan basin. they have another ipo coming out on one of their trusts that i do entirely recommend, that one will go very quickly. >> and the last one was a recent ipo, am i correct on that? >> it is. this is the most speculative. this is one of those regas ri kags. >> gaslog? >> that's right. it takes dry natural gas and converts it into lng and that strengthens it to one-six-hundredths of a price.

what you get from that is a huge arbitrage between what prices are here in the united states and prices overseas. it's only through lng that you can ship it. this is one of the few companys that can actually take natural gas, turn it into lng and ship it. therefore the day rates, amount they're getting per day for one of their tankers being used is going up all the time. it's a speculative play, they're losing money now. hopefully over time -- >> there are three stocks that three years from now you may look back and say glad i followed your advice. >> i certainly hope so. >> dan, good to see you. thanks. rick santelli normally in chicago has taken on the challenge right through programming today of converting a pickup truck to run on nat gas. let's go back to oklahoma. you look as proud as punch, rick. job done, i take it. look at you. >> craig and i finished. it runs on regular gas too.

keep your fingers crossed. let's close the hood and see what we did. success. >> well-done. >> how long did it takeyou? how long have you been at it? >> here we go. we started about 8:00, 8:30 this morning. >> okay. and this now, correct me if i'm wrong, you can get 80 miles a gallon on this at a cost of $0.66 a gallon, i think you said earlier. >> yes. one of craig's customer in did a conversion in his house he figured out a special meter just for his car coming out to $0.66. amazing. >> how much does it cost to convert it? and do you have to have additional expense at home to refill it? >> yes.

okay. to both. this truck conversion we did today is in the $8,000 to $9,000 neighborhood. and to get the rig so you can fill it up and have your own house be a gas station is probably for a small unit about $5,000 for the good recommended unit that can do it more quickly about $7,500. but the prices are coming down rather quickly on the apparatus to install it in your house and fill it from your own natural gas line. >> it's a good day's work, rick. thank you very much. nice to see you. rick santelli live there. >> absolutely. >> well-done. >> here we go. >> i want a nat gas car. i have a prius. i want the next thing. jobs, europe inflation, debt crisis, iran's nuclear threat. what could kill this first quarter rally? >> the biggest risks to your portfolio you need to know about. that's next on cnbc. [ nadine ] buzzzz, bzzzz, bzzzz, bzzzz,

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let's give you a quick check of the u.s. markets. industrials down 7 points. nasdaq off about 30 points at 3050. and the s&p 500 at 1383. that's about a 1% decline or 14 points. simon. >> ty, there never seems to be a shortage of global risks that keep bankers up at night. don't worry for them. that's what they're paid to think about. but the challenge is how to rank those as the ones that could cause the most harm to the markets at any given moment. which is where our next guest enters the picture. michael spends his days advising investment bankers on global risks. he has a new book out. michael, iran is clearly where a lot of people are concerned at the moment. how would you rate that? >> i think iran is a counterintuitive story for me. clearly the risk is there. israel's concern about iran is a

wild card. but two of the three players there, the united states and iran, really do not have any incentive to see this turn into a conflict. obama primarily during the election year, iran for obvious reasons. i really think that a lot of the talk of air strikes is really a matter of hardening positions at negotiating table. >> interesting. what about europe? >> europe, i think spain is an enormous problem. and it has been for some time. i think the focus has been on greece rightly in that greece is essentially a solvent. but spain is where a collapse would cause really global problems. >> do you think it will collapse? >> i think that the ecb has -- and european leaders have kid themselves or thought that the latest plan would stop investors from being concerned about spain. and even italy, although it seems to be under, you know, good management with mario

monti. >> do you think they will roll over? >> i think they will not. i don't think the ecb will allow it. >> a lot view stress where america fits in the world and how it should view itself. why are you so pessimistic? >> i think the u.s. has a fetish that goes back to years of world war ii when the status quo basically supported american interest around the world. that may not be true anymore. we need to start thinking about a transition to a world where united states can retain its influence but doesn't have to support with its military, with its economic power all the status quos in the rare yous regions around the world. these are unsupportable in the long run. >> almost a ron paul argument. >> he has his upside too. he looks at balance sheets like all of us. it's hard to imagine that taiwan will not eventually have to make some kind of accommodation for china. >> we're out of time but i want to mention bank of america and

citi because you wrote those down for our researchers. >> i think bank of america and citi for two quite different reasons are the canaries in the coal mine for the u.s. banking sector. clearly europe has made it look healthy. even in the last couple days there's been a real move to buy risky bonds in italy and spain, which is really undermined those banks. but citi and bank of america have an awful lot of bad assets on their balance sheets and they have not been, i think, forthcoming in where they stand. >> so when the "new york times" wrote this morning it compared the two and said they both rallied and that was because they both survive. are you calling that into question? >> i think you see sentiments go to and fro whether qe-3 is going to happen or not. whether jobs are soft this month or not. all of these play into calculations made like that by the "new york times." i still wonder about the assets on their balance sheet, things that came from countrywide, for instance, how many of those will

pan out in the long-term. >> you are a warrior. a professional warrior. >> that's what we do. >> nice to meet you. thank you very much, michael. ty, back to you. >> thank you very much. up next, facebook acquiring the photo sharing app instagram for a billion dollars cash and stock. stay tuned for a download on that news. they have names like idle time books and smash records and on small business saturday they remind a nation of the benefits of shopping small.

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facebook acquiring photo sharing application instagram for $1 billion in cash and stock. this before facebook's mega ipo expected in may. joining us on the phone senior editor with all things digital. peter, thank you so much for talking to us. >> sure. >> what do you think of this acquisition? what about that price tag, 1% of facebook's estimated market cap? >> i think like everybody else. trying to figure out why instagram closed valued the company at $5 million a few days ago. what they were thinking and investors are thinking and what facebook is thinking. >> what do you think they are thinking? do you think there's a land grab between facebook and google? obviously they want to be the destination for sharing photos. >> my gut this is a defensive play by facebook.

people don't really make a big enough deal about this but facebook has already and has been for some time the world's biggest photo sharing service by huge order of magnitude. i can't imagine there's any technology they think is important and i can't imagine the users are important to them. i think this is to prevent someone else from picking up potentially power rival service. >> does facebook need this? is this a sign they are acknowledging they're slow to mobile? >> i don't think so. i think they're just worried in the hands of someone else why are you using facebook, just to share photos. >> interesting to see if zuckerberg makes anymore big. >> he said he wasn't planning to and they wouldn't make any other big acquisitions like this. do you believe him? >> yeah. i think there's only a number of billion dollar acquisitions you can make even for a company facebook's size. this is very much out of character for facebook. >> peter, thanks so much for

joining us. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> facebook to block for a billion. with $800 billion budgeted for federal health care entitlements, the battle for the piece of a pie is intense. and many are crossing the line to cash-in. conservative estimates put health care fraud in america at about $80 billion a year. our senior correspondent, scott cohn is on this. >> thanks, tyler. there are so many ways to rip off the system. that's what we found in the six months we spent on the front lines with the people fighting this fraud and treating it like the crime wave that it is. 6:00 a.m. and we're on the move toward the gated community that's home to gilbert and elaine kim. mrs. kim is just getting ready to leave for work. there's a slight change of plans. >> i can't take it off.

>> her husband is just upstairs. 7:30 the kims are in custody. two of nearly a dozen arrested on this day alone. the kims ran this facility uri medical in queens in the heart of new york's korean community. >> the kims and ten other defendants that pleaded not guilty, but authorities say their clinic was offering free dance lessons and massages to patients and billing them to medicare and medicaid as physical therapy. we'll also take you on a raid in puerto rico where ten people are accused of running a medical equipment scam. and then there's the doctor in dallas accused of paying homeless people to sign up for home health care. and we, the taxpayers, pay the bill. so part of the health care hustle tonight from investigations inc. >> i won't miss that. that's interesting stuff. by the way, scott will be holding a q & a session today on facebook about health care fraud in america. you can join in that big debate at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. and of course do not miss

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take a look at this. we are cutting our losses as we work our way through the session perhaps getting more perspective on the jobs figure loss that we had on friday. maybe it isn't as bad as people said. >> let's take a look -- we'll know more later this week. we have a few more pieces of data out later this week. we've been talking a little about natural gas. let's look at natural gas five years down 72% at $2.09 today. i think that is basically a decade low. but if it's so low, why is my heating bill still so high? >> are you using electric perhaps? >> no. julia. >> look at shutterfly, stock down 7% on the news of facebook buying instagram. could be a problem for the photo sharing service. >> and finally look at where we are on the 10-year yield back down towards 2% as the bond market rallies for fear of where we might be going with the economy or more fed