tv Closing Bell CNBC April 11, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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hi, everybody. good afternoon. we welcome you to the "closing bell" in the final stretch of trading. i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. the bulls have come back at least for today. we are starting to lose some steam. stocks are holding on the gains with the dow holding on triple digits to snap the five-day losing streak. also in the past hour, the fed released the latest survey of
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regional economic conditions. reports suggested that the economic activity in the 12 federal reserve districts continue to increase at a modest pace. when that came out, it took the edge off the rally that we have seen up to this point. also, one other point. natural gas has settled below $2 for the first time in a decade thanks to the mild winter that we've experienced through much of the country. good news for those who have to buy natural gas, maria. >> let's show you where we stand as we approach the final stretch. close to the highs of the day, bank on the upside. aluminum is higher on the alcoa numbers. showing a gain today of better than 6%. dow industrials up better than 106 points. check the nasdaq, technology also participating here with buyers there up 24 points on nasdaq. still above 3,000 at 3,015.
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less than an hour to go in the trading day, we take a quick look at the market themes. i've been talking to traders and investors and keeping our eyes on the 3 e's. better than expected numbers out of alcoa that you heard tonight. italian and spanish borrowing rates hoping to drive today's moves in stocks. it's the first day of gains for the dow industrials in six trading sessions. i'm keeping my eye on pandora. the stock is now a fallen angel, as they say. down better than 50% from the ipo price. you may recall a stock surged as much as 63% on that first trading day. that was pan dora. and now showing a decline of 50%. another stock on my radar, google. check it out. the fun tid bit to tell you
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about. the company reports earnings. in seven of the last eight quarters, shares of google have risen. today the stock is up 1%. keep in mind, google has missed earning expectations. three out of the last eight quarters. there's the stock with better than 1%, bill. >> funny you should mention the three e's. economy, earnings, and europe. who better to discuss today's big three market drivers than the brains we have assembled for you right now. take a look at this. in the "closing bell" exchange, bob pisani, steve liesman -- >> look at simon's face. >> and we're going to start with simon. a took a frenchman at the ecb to begin this rally when he suggested the obvious, the ecb could buy bonds. >> was it obvious? the last time marrow was up at the ecb news conference, he was suggesting that the recent fallout that we had on spanish yields had more to do with what
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the politicians were doing and benoit said the politicians were doing the right thing and the market wasn't really understanding that. in other words, there was a market inefficiency. the sort of inefficiency for which the ecb may have to blow through and buy spanish bonds again. that was enough for people to feel -- look, we don't have to wait. spanish growth or spanish austerity, there is in addition to whatever firewall we could put up there, there is always the prospect that the ecb could buy bonds. they were up there yesterday and, guys, as you know, they came back down and quite a solid rally on the european banks today although to a certain extent they did sell into that. >> and that helped our markets today. >> it's hard to describe why we're so ex sub rant. the move up is due to him saying
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that he would buy spanish bonds and i'm not sure why we should be so excited about that. you can hear the bodies drop. we just want the government to get their acts together. the ecb's work is done here. we did have a nice move up, though, in all of the advancing and declining stocks and right from the open it's been declining. bottom line is not just alcoa. this is a largely positive news here. in owens, illinois, one of the largest bottle orders. they are big glass makers. they preannounced positive earnings. that stock is up as well. so two stocks -- i know it's early but all had positive things to say. >> and they are all economic sensitive. >> and alcoa, in your interview with klaus, he had positive comments. >> he said aerospace is doing
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well and also autos in the u.s. europe is still troubled, although it has not worsened but it's still troubled. asia, all of this hype about china slowing down, not that much. >> and then steve came in and took the edge off the rally t looked like a good report. >> that's exactly why it took the edge off the rally. i loved bob's comment on that. the there were a lot of positive strengthening and you can see there boston, new york, st. louis retail called strong. other things are out there. consumer spending was called encouraging. there were strong auto sales. maria just mentioned that. that was picked up in the beige book. there were concerns about higher gas prices and concerns about europe out there. they even said they were hiring in new york or hiring activity was expected to pick up in new
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york. i thought it was a pretty significant change in tone from the other beige books that i have seen and the trade right now, at least at the margin, is improving words that cause selling in the stock market. >> yes. we saw a little selling. >> well, really it hasn't done much at all today. it did move much. >> 130, 140. >> it was. >> when i came off 20, 30 points on this news. >> be modest. >> i was modest but i took the edge off of it. >> thank you all three brains for joining us on the "closing bell" exchange. >> the home building stocks, one of the hottest groups on the streets, the justice department is taking aim at price fixing for e-books. the movers and shakers of the day. brian, let's get to housing in a moment. what do you hear? what are you wearing?
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>> this is my cnbc hockey jersey. >> nice. >> we have hockeys tonight on our air but we filmed a great promo with larry kudlow. >> i hear kudlow is your enforcer. is that true? >> he's actually a goalie. you'll have to wait until you see it. it's hysterical. we'll move on. it's a great shirt and i'm so pumped to have it because i like gear. let's talk about housing. the dow jones construction etf, up 3.5%. whether you live in trade by case shiler ler, orders up in 2 and this would be the year. this is definitely the day for housing names. pull tea pulte up 9%. you have lennar at 5.5% and
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apple, see where it's trading right now, it's down more than half a percent. rolling over and slowing its march towards a $600 billion market cap. the stock already trading its average daily volume with about an hour to go and it's basically flat for the last week. speaking of volumes, take a look at this chart. it's down about 6% and it's had incredibly heavy volume. triple the average. it seems to be the catalyst maybe it will shrink margins for them and the suit would be positive. we'll have to keep an eye on the story. we'll definitely give you that as soon as we get it. i also want to talk about travel zoom. it's absolutely to the moob. 29.5% to the upside. reports out there that it is in play and people are jumping in, hoping for that premium bill. back to you. >> instagram deal, everyone want
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to know who is neck. lackluster demand during the auction of ten-year notes announced at 1:00 eastern time today. rick santelli is in chicago with details. rick? >> hi, bill. you know, the ten-year auction really wasn't bad. it was about as good as a three-year. i would say even about average. the table was set more on europe. it could have been more aggressive but it wasn't bad. look at a two-day chart. here's the issue. you settle at 198. you're up four basis points. it hasn't been a robust day for trade really. you can see we're definitely closer to the low yields than the high yields. here's some of the driving points. look at the shots. the two-year in europe. yesterday it closed at nine basis points. today it was trading 14 and settled at 13. a good reason to use percentage in the fixed-income market. it's not accurate to say short
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rates are up over 50% on the opening today but they were. now, if you look at a two-day chart of the ten-day boone, we're up four basis points and their ten-day was up 14 points. there was so much anxiety it pushed the rates dramatically lower. back to you. >> it is odd to do percentages of percentages, isn't it? >> yes, it is. >> 45 minutes left in the trading day. we are approaching the close here. banks doing well, technology doing well and certainly the economically sensitive names like alcoa. carnival shares are down 10% since the costa concordia back in january. we have both sides of those stories coming up. amazon benefits from best buy's recent troubles. and as yogi bear once said, consumers with bad credit once again are receiving credit card
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and alone offers from banks. >> it ain't over till it's over. are banks being reckless again by extending credit to high-risk borrowers? tweet us. >> as we head to the break, it's your move. here's the sea of green in the s&p 500 stocks. you're watching cnbc. >> we're all about yogi bear. the next revolution in music is happening here.
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zon, all posting sharp increases coming up on friday, the doi is up 1% in the early going today. right now it is up about 2/3 of a percent. rising for just a second time this month. is that right? wow. i guess so. >> yeah, it is, phil. since january it's been tough going for carnival. tough to be an investor in this stock. the largest cruise operator is still recovering from that tragic wreck of the costa concordia. at the annual shareholder meeting, the company is reiterating the guidance for the full year and is trying to restore confidence. will this be enough for investors? we look at that today. joining me now is jamie and wells fargo securities. good to have you both on the program. thank you both for joining us. >> thank you. >> jamie, you have a hold on this stock. it's seem some upside today.
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what are your concerns? >> well, i think we have it rated three-star. there's a wider margin of safety. i think in the near term what we saw through the slideshow today and the annual meeting is that pricing is still suffering even though bookings have recovered slightly and that could act as a headwind for the remainder of the year. that along with fuel prices. >> have we still -- are we still watching bookings sort of reluctant there and going down? what are you seeing in terms of bookings right now? >> i think what is more concerning right now, closer end bookings, it's a key time for the cruise lines. i think the closing bookings which could have maybe had better pricing, that's really where it could be the achilles heel of earnings for that third quarter. >> tim being you're acknowledging these ratings.
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tell me why you like it. >> well, clearly the things that she's cited here are concerns and we agree with those but i think investors are looking through 2012 and are trying to assess what is the normalized earning power. carnival has stated that it's going to take a year to recover from the fallout of acosta but particularly carnival. the cost sta brand in hurt really hard. the only countries that were showing some ongoing troubles were italy, france, and spain, pre the concordia event. we think it's going to take, again, at least a year to recover and may take one to two years. that being said, it's around 225 in earnings power and it's very attractive on a valuation basis.
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>> that's a good point. so, in other words, you think the stock has seen the worst then as this company in terms of fundamentals continues to recover. jamie, when do you expect carnival to turn around? >> i would guess the same. we have two and a quarter for next as well. once it is fleshed out for next year, we'll see how much resilience there is a and there may be a better opportunity to pick up and purchase the stock. >> we'll leave it there. i'm sorry. did you want to say something? go ahead. >> as investors start to see the flekz point which we believe are in the second and third quarter, we think the stock should turn within the next few months here and probably has already seen the lows, in our view. >> good to have you both on the program. we'll be watching carnival. >> thank you. 40 minutes to go.
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the dow coming off a low for the session. we're up 90 points at this point. >> how about best buy? this is one of these great companies that has been caught up in -- i don't know whether it is its own business models. is it time to buy the stock? we'll break it down next. >> casinos have been weathering this recent market turmoil. again, we have the play on casinos coming up. >> as we head to break, you can see the market is up 92 points, off of the best levels. showing strengths. back in a moment.
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brap. i'm bertha coombs at the nymex. traders saying there was an awful lot of curve. the months after that, from june through the summer when we begin hurricane season and we also begin the cooling season, that is still trading above $2. we're expecting inventories tomorrow anywhere from 20 to 24 billion feet convection. >> you have to expect that
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becomes a screaming long-term buy. but you never know. i'm not recommending it, just pointing it out. less than an hour of trading to go. let's get to talking numbers where we look at shares of best buy that were down 6% yesterday and whatever that means, is it time to buy? shares of this electric be tronic retailer, and if so, if not, who would you buy instead? rich ross is with us, the chief technological strategist. best buy, tough time for this retailer, huh? >> as painful as it might be to sell the stock at a multi-year low, we think it's time to step up as i've alluded to. we've been in the age of consumer electronics for the past two years. flat panels, video games all sewering off the shelves. >> couldn't tell it from the shelves.
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>> absolutely. once again, we think it's time to step off that ride. we saw this false break out, a false glimmer of hope back in march. the stock rallied 16%. we reclaim that 200 moving day average. it's a bullish signature. it tends to lead to a fast move in the opposite direction. perhaps most telling, we took out the trading range at that $23 level. we have a projected downside target of 1750 on best buy. it's lights out and closing time. >> if you don't like that, who do you like? >> that's the flip side to this story. companies like amazon, walmart have been feasting on best buy. amazon up 400% since the 2008 low. apple has been up a few percentage points as well.
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>> amazon has struggled a little bit lately. >> it is down from that 2011 peak and similar to best buy we broke out that 200-day moving average from a five-month base of support. now, we pulled back. we broke below that 200 day but we call this a premature breakout, the difference is that you have a retreat through the pattern. we've held the 50-day. that should provide a spring board for us to resume the assent and we would be a buyer right here at this key support. >> a critical moment for amazon.com. thank you very much. that is talking numbers for this wednesday. all the way over to you maria. thank you so much. still ahead, with so much uncertainty in the market, is now the time to outperform small cap names into large cap? we're going to check the
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welcome back. let's get back to economy monday jaf verse. economy monday? >> hi, bill, they are changing the security procedures around how they release those monthly job numbers. a closely watch about the concern of potential leaks of information. not that the jobs numbers has leaked before but they want to make sure that it doesn't leak from here on out any later from 8:30 on friday. they are changing for reporters granted access to that jobs number about half an hour early in what we call a lockup over the department of labor. they are now going to supply standard equipment.
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you won't be able to bring in company-owned equipment, wireless capability. reporters will not be allowed to have personal gear, umbrellas, or bags. and pens and paper will be supplied by the department of labor. big changes on the jobs number lockup, guys. >> big change is coming. the president once again advocating the buffett rule and called on congress to raise taxes on the highest earnings. he also hit on the need to close deficits and the important of investments yesterday and told me about the importance of getting a budget passed. it was a heated exchange where i challenged him on the lack of support on the budget plan for next year. the budget voted on in march received zero votes in the house. >> why is it that the president puts forth the budget and not even bone democrat didn't buy into it. >> there's about zero truth to anything in the question you
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just asked me, maria. >> okay. where's the budget? >> maria, if you look at the president's budget -- >> what budget? >> maria, the president of the united states puts out a budget. it is the most detailed thing that is out in the united states right now. >> how come no democrat wanted to buy into it? >> maria, maria, maria, the president put out the only budget out there that is detailed and line by line. that is a fact. when we were putting forward our budget -- >> but you're operating without a budget. >> maria, you've got to let me answer your question. we put out the most detailed budget. unlike the resolutions which are vague categories, we put out the most detailed budget. combined with what we did, it has over $4 trillion of budget deduction and they looked at the details of the budget and found it brings the deficit down to as low as 2.5% a year and the economy stabilizes.
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>> i'm just trying to figure out why not one democrat would vote for it. >> the budget that we supported in the house of representatives was the house budget resolution put forward by chris van holland, which democrats rallied around. included none of the fairness on how we would raise revenues on those over 250,000 and it's a political gesture. they put that out. >> and, of course, bill that interview found its way to the twitter verse. >> imagine that. >> lack of support for spending budget. bill, after i interviewed gene sperling, i wonder if the goal is to eliminate the loop hols, in other words, yp not just eliminate that? why come up with the buffett rule to tax 30% on anybody making a million dollars which is going to include small
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businesses, which is going to prohibit them from creating jobs, why not take out that interest rule. >> i think you're overthinking it. we're in the midst of the campaign of 2012. >> ah, politics. >> it's all about the politics right now. the administration knows that the buffett rule will never pass through congress. >> you asked him that yesterday. >> this is only a way of drawing a line in the sand on the issue of taxes and economic fairness against mitt romney who paid 14% in taxes last year. that's what it is about. that's all. >> you're right. >> it was an interesting exchange. i had a front row seat. >> i was exhausted. >> back to the market. >> so was gene sperling. predicting that small and mid-caps will once again beat the large caps. small and mid-caps clearly outperforming with the smallest names doubles the amount of
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returns in 2010. in light of the recent five-day selloff, can they deliver these types of terms we wonder? >> plus, as investors go back into equities, we bring in right now doug along with meg mcclellan. what do you think is going on today? here we have the market up 100 points on the heels of five straight days of declines. has there been a change in sentiment? how do you see it today? >> i see global risk moderating. with spain and what is going on with europe. that is well contained. i am not worried about europe. what i'm looking for is fundamentals, keep coming out strong. we have a weak payroll number. big deal. we've had 18 consecutive increases in payroll employment. one bad number, that's an estimate. this number is going to keep
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going. >> why will the mid-cap and large cap stocks outperform? >> bottom line, it's earnings. earnings growth are projected to be 50 -- actually, double the s&p 500. we're forecasting consensuses around 7% is double for mid- and small. that's why you buy stocks. that's why you want to be in the markets. that's why it's going to continue. even the top line is 50% higher. >> meg, you've come come here in the past in terms of how to get yield in fixed income. where does this leave the fixed market? are you seeing money coming out of the considered safe areas into equities? >> we're seeing a little bit of both. some rotation into equities with the longer term outlook and we continue to see higher yielding assets and fixed income. essentially global bonds, potentially high yield. you know, i think kind of to think about today's market move, there's a groundhog day. we reversed out on both the
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stock markets and frankly whether it's high yield or the treasury markets or equities, consolidation and conviction before moving forward. >> global bonds. i'm not being flippant here when i ask these. would you look at the european issues yielding 5, 10%? >> even asia has been hot. >> i think you have to be selective. we certainly have had underweight to europe in terms of the debt market. kicking a can down the road is not a solution. we've seen that. yields kicking up in spain. part of the positive sentiment was a reaction to some feeling, some hope that there would be an ecb intervention. we don't trade on hope but certainly good fundamental values but be very, very selective. >> good to see you both. thank you. >> thank you. as we head towards the close with about 23 minutes to go here, let me turn around. the dow is holding up at 93. >> meanwhile, strong revenue in
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china. got bad credit? no problem. banks are throwing new credit cards at high-risk borrowers again. are they returning to a prefinancial crisis mind set. >> are banks being reckless again by extending credit to high risk borrowers? tweet us and we'll show your responses at the end of the show tonight. how can you just stand there? what do you mean? your grass, man. it's famished! just two springtime feedings with scotts turf builder lawn food helps strengthen and protect your lawn from future problems. thanks scott. [ scott ] feed your lawn. feed it.
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the day's low. >> shares are up better than 3% after opening the doors to the newest casino in macau. the $5 billion resort will open in stages. 1.2 million square feet as the only operator to open a casino in macau this year, they have already three casinos already in macau. we bring in two top analysts, harry curtis, good to see you guys. thank you for joining us. what are your revenue expectations? >> let's start with the market share. since you started off with that subject, we expect lvs will be the market leader in macau within six to 12 months.
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>> do you think this is going to be a significant contributor to overall revenue? >> absolutely. it's 45% of the ebitda overall and gaining revenue up 24% just last month. can the momentum continue? we're talking more and more about the slowdown going on in china. has it been impacted? >> it hasn't been impacted in the slightest. revenues are up quite sickly. there is about 7.5 to 8% economic growth in china and what's really interesting about macau is if it gross between 20 and 25%, over the next several years there's going to be almost no capacity growth and that's going to be great for all of the operator's profit margins.
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>> is this the chinese or is this singaporeor where are they coming from? >> mainly china and hong kong. >> do you think the expansion affects others. >> everyone's market share is going to drop by a point. but let's focus on ebitda and go back to last year when galaxy opened and there were predictions of a loss of cash flow across the city and that didn't occur. i don't think it's going to occur again this time. >> you know, it's interesting. it feels like asia is sort of subsidizing las vegas. am i right on that? that's really where the business is. las vegas sands planning to open in spain. is that a good idea? >> you have to understand some of the answers and press interviews. our understanding from management and lvs is that would happen in multiple stages
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initially just a 2 to $3 billion investment. we look at asia. we want to see more detail first. >> sheldon, the ceo. would you put new capital to work in the las vegas sands right here? >> absolutely. china is becoming a consumer economy. that's going to benefit macau for multiple years. >> harry, what's the word? >> i think in the near term, often time sellers or owners sell stocks on open and if that occurs and the stock drifts down a little bit, we would be aggressive buyers of the stock. >> gentlemen, thank you so much for your time tonight. we'll see you soon. >> thank you. about 15 minutes to go. we were up 75 points a moment ago and coming off the lows
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to gain a foot hold in coal, china bought a controlling stake in canada's resources. so you see the diversification that they are talking about, not just being in aluminum. they have lost about half their value in the past year as aluminum prices wiped out about a fifth of that value for alcoa it's down more than 40% in the last 52 weeks. >> high traffic there, bill. i got the balances going into the close. fractional to the sell side so it may sell off. yesterday is better than expected earnings and gave the aluminum stock a boost. brian shactman has the details. over to you, brian. >> thank you. the dow 30 heat map, alcoa at the top of the heat. off the highs, though.
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stock has been up and down as of late and alcoa is still outperforming the wider dow. 14 plus percent compared to the dow which is 5. other names in the aluminum space, century aluminum. it's up more than 3, 3.5%. a market cap about 7 million. it's based in monterey, california. not a bad home base to have. also up today, kaiser aluminum. 27 million market cap. traded a 9.25%. and finally i want to point out,
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the ticker is ars. >> thank you so much, brian. we're going to take a quick break and then we have the closing countdown. subprime lenlding is making a comeback. is that a sign of improvements in the economy? we want to know what you think. are banks being reckless again? send us a tweet at cnbc "closing bell." we'll show you the best responses in the program. as we take a break, how it's trading minutes before the close. back in a moment. ♪
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>> okay. just inside the five-minute mark as we head towards the close of trade. as it stands right now, the dow is seeing the first three straight days of triple digit moves, although it doesn't look like we're going to get it. two moves yesterday and the day before, but today it looks like we're going to be less than 100-point gain in this snapback. the averages are on pace for the biggest weekly drop of this
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year. this is going to be the worst year for the bulls at least on wall street in 2012. not today, though. it started in europe with the ecb official reminding everybody that they have the ability to buy bonds if needed and that brought some yields down and it sent the euro higher. the euro off the highs of the session. we had a good gain there today back to $1.31. as the euro goes, so does our stock market and the dow had a good gain out of the open. it was up 130 points at one time until 2:00 when the beige book came out. a little bit better than expected and maybe that's the reason stocks went lower. if you get a better than expected economic report from the fed, maybe it's less likely to step in with more quantitative easinging. we've gone lower since that point. and just like yesterday, so-so auction for three years.
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we're at 2.03 on the ten-year. price of oil moving higher. we have an interesting report on inventory that was a bigger than expected drawdown. demand lately has been lower. but not this last week here. so the draw down a little more than expected, prices went up 1.5% on light sweet crude. it's not a risk trade. it's a hedge. if our risk on trade is going, you're taking the risk down it sat there today. and they also brought the yellow flag off the vix, the volatility index right at 20. i was going to point out how it was below 20 but we're back right at 20 at this point. the sectors, s&p sectors, the biggest gains were in the risk on sectors, the financials as we pointed out. the big banks start reporting on friday so we get ready for that.
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1.5% gain there. the consumer kregsary, materials all seeing pretty big gains today. technology, consumer staples, health care. utilities i thought would have done better but i was wrong about that. meg mcclellan from jpmorgan bank w. these tepid auctions, if you've got the worst week for stocks and a tepid demand for treasury notes out there, where is the money going? are you looking at cash being king again? >> i think the markets are trading on very light volume. >> vacation time, spring break? >> exactly. 2% in tens is kind of a question mark. are we going to go lower or higher? 1370 on the s&p. again, we're seeing a lot of trading and i don't think you're seeing a lot of cash and clients
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and to gain income? >> we look globally we're continuing to get positive momentum out of the cash flow and they love to hear. >> fixed income right now? >> a lot of -- there's been a pretty significant rally and especially on emerge, markets, corporate bonds. on an absolute basis, looking at the two or three years, they are not nearly as cheap as they were a couple months ago. be very selective with the credit as a growth story. we look towards asia as we see the global economy shifting. huge gdp contributions from asia. >> meg mcclellan, jpmorgan bank. thank you. >> that will do it for the first hour on this wednesday. dow trying to muster enough of a
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