today. weekly jobless claims at 8:30 eastern and after the jobs number from last bring, people will be watching this very closely. forecasters say the number of first time filers likely rose by 1,000 to 358,000. at the same time, we'll also be getting producer price index numbers. calling for a headline cpi to rise by 0.3%. and we get february international trade numbers. deficit is expected to shrink slightly. the federal reserve vice chair janet yellen says that the central bank's you will are a easing monetary policy is appropriate right now. she's citing high unemployment and head winds facing the economy. the plu shap fed official suggested that policymakers still have a variety of options for to engage in further asset purchases. >> i remain prepared to adjust my policy views in response to incoming information. in particular further easing

actions could be warranted if the recovery proceeds at a slower than expected pace while a significant acceleration in the pace of recovery could call for an earlier beginning to the process of policy firming than the fmoc currently anticipates. >> okay. wrap it up. >> it's a busy week for fed speak. later today, we'll hear from president dudley and philly president plosser. plus fed governor sarah bloom raskin and, yes, the question has to be how do you ease from zero. >> they're loaded with arrows. they're flush. here's the journal piece. i see no need for more accommodation. dennis lockhart, way too early to conclude the economy is sputtering. >> yellen is the one supposedly -- >> i'm not jelling with yelling. >> she's the vice chair. >> i don't care. and richard pisher, ifish, i'm

to hear there are concerns about cost push pressures. we don't know we're in another soft spot. >> i don't think we are. and if you looked at the beige book, all 12 regions showed there was growth. >> the training wheels are off. and we made one little quick move like that to keep from falling and now we may be back on. >> but that's an argument for the idea that they could ease more. >> with what? >> the idea that they are stepping a stepping back and the market tanks on that. >> these traders have to get off of the methadone. they were on heroin and then qe was the methadone. >> i agree we should get off of it, but -- >> wouldn't you like to be clean and healthy and sober? >> yes. i think we're improving. i think we're seeing signs of improvement. she did say she's going to change her mind based on the incoming numbers. >> those are not beltless pants

today. those aren't the kind without -- so now you just won't wear a belt. >> now he knows he gets under your skin. >> did you see george soros' op-ed today? >> i don't even have the financial times. >> it was mentioned in morning money and i went on get it. >> we get those here. you bought one? >> no, here. >> supposedly they're not here yet. >> they're at the front. >> way to go, grecco. >> soros is suggesting that all the long term ease has gone we had in europe really hid what he has called the kund lying i und deterioration and it actually got much worse. and what may be going on here may be fine for now. but i do think this overhang is

real. >> and he said that it's the most dangerous stuff even though it's not as volatile, the most dangerous stuff could get uncovered right now. >> how do you know it's not part of his plan to -- such a sub per sif to somehow hasten the end of the world, which is what i think he's trying to do. >> are you trying to make this political or -- >> no, i'm not a fan. i'm just not a big fan. the way a lot of the beds that he's made and big enough to orchestrate some of the things that happen. >> do you think he's -- >> i think he's evil. probably not going to be on the show. what, you got an interview coming up? >> no, but i'll save him from you. the international energy agency saying that the oil market could be turning a corner, the iea krirtding increased output from opec. monthly report suggesting the combination of the factors has

led to a potential global building stocks of a million barrels during the last quarter. oil prices this morning if you take a look right now, there you have it. brent. are you focused on brent these days? >> no, but you know, what natural gas is below 2 bucks for the first time. like the lowest price it's ever been. >> and if we could all get natural gas. >> first time it's fallen below it $2 i take that back in over ten years. >> sos a you know, i went driving with joe yesterday. and the porsche. >> did you call it -- >> for sha oi >> porsche. >> would you like to fuel take with natural gas if you could? >> if i could. i don't have room for a very big tank anywhere as you saw yesterday. right? you got to put the tank -- it

would be a 50 mile or 70 mile -- but then you don't run out. >> why not if you were here when santelli said this fascinating report -- >> natural gas car, easy to convert, it drives the same. i have a grill at home that runs on natural gas and a generator. easy to -- so rick was saying people complain there is no infrastructu infrastructure. >> it was an amazing report. >> it's in the battery. it's in the solar, not wind, it's pot what -- if you are really green and really piecey and a lefty, natural gas is not the thing. >> if you're concerned about the defense of this country, it's what we have incredible reserves of. >> i'm talking about being peace d peacey and planet friendly and all that crap. >> austan goolsbee had a piece -- >> yesterday.

enabling us to -- i don't know. i didn't understand it. >> he was argue, too much in the strategic reserves. >> you were more merv us in the parking lot leaving than when we got out on the open road because i know about the cops on 9 w. i'm on to them. >> i wasn't worried about the cops. i was worried about my safety. >> but you were more worried in the parking lot. >> we were going 90 miles per hour in the parking lot. >> but then right at 9 w, i stick right at 35. they know me, i know them. >> we have new tape that -- >> oh, you can load it. >> i haven't loaded it yet, but -- >> he had a camera on. everywhere he goes now, he has a camera on himself. you know who you're like? you're like made done that. she said i don't even want to live if i'm in the on camera. no reason to have a life if someone else can't watch me. so you've gotten to that point now. >> to me it's preferable to be compared to madonna than like

beth an in th bethany frankel. an oversupplied environment coupled with lower demand due to mild temperatures, goldman's forecast is now $2.40, averaging $4 next year, so makes the santelli -- still good. >> yeah, it assumes we don't have the same winter. >> with oil at $100, where should natural gas be? >> they've all obroken down, bu three or four times. check on the broader markets. futures indicated up another 23 points. got 90 points back out of that five day loss yesterday. that's about 0.2% is what we're looking for. the ten year has been -- this has really been interesting to watch that because everyone who says that it's orchestrated by the fed to be down that low,

santelli's been making the point that the global growth picture and just how tenuous the financial system still is, that it will stay here, it will be down here and it will stay here. because we're not -- and that's what worries me because japan would have love for rates to go up and they can't get -- every time it goes up, comes right back down. as a result everybody is a saver and no one spends any money, no one gets married and you didn't have any kids. let's check out the dollar. got to get the euro down to about 1.12 would be good. and gold between 1600 and 1700. and it's 1656 today. the word bald bank is cutting i broadcast for china economic growth. now 8.2% down from 8.4% previously. the call backs the view that china is set for if its lowest

annual growth in a decade, at the same time the world bank is raising its 2013 forecast for growth and in other news out of beijing, of which there was a lot, lending surged in march, chinese banks extended 160.1 billion worth of new loans last month. that significantly exceeded forecasts. this will could be a sign of traction. meantime china's foreign exchange increased about 124 billion if the first quarter. there is an interesting op-ed piece again in the journal, like everything else in china is so hard for us to really understand, but this weird chinese communist -- senior communist party member, his wife is now arrested for -- and

afterno an notice y employee looks like he was poisoned. and the journal makes the point that as long as you have these -- this closed society of princelings, these are the real elite, they drive around in ferraris and there's a crash and some guy's illegitimate son was killed, the son of this lady, there's a lot -- and they also have a shot of part of the region that he was in charge of and it's got one after another of these high rises and half are empty. and i want to talk to chanos and i want him -- journal draws conclusions about a bigger overall problem that this is indicative of. i can't connect it. i don't know what this actually means.

>> it's scary to think if you're a business person who does go there and travel there often, it probably makes you think twice about what's going on. >> jim hasn't been there yet. jim always gets criticized. he says he can't go because he's worried there are happen. >> bingo, would you go if you were him? i would not unless i had like some serious muscle with me. >> i would tell him he's so high profile that i think he could go. >> this guy thought he was safe because he left a lot of smoking guns and evidence outside the country. and that did not stop them from knocking him off. >> but it's let to these people getting knocked out of power and his wife -- >> initially they said this is why the internet is bad because you can print anything and mun of it was true, and then all of it was true. >> it's not just china that we're concerned about. europe once again that is

catching people's attention. there was a key bond auction in italy this morning. yields rising to the highest level there since mid-january. and a three year debt auction and this is the latest soon that the worries are spreading to the other countries. ross westgate is standing by in london and, ross, this debt auction, how big of a concern is that casting on the conaty meant tod continent today? >> wasn't a great debt auction, but probably what we expected. pretty much evens stevens on the stoxx 600. claude back from heavy losses yesterday. up around three quarters of a percent. today down 0.1. half percent lower for the cac 40. real weakness once again is in the peripheral markets. ibex down nearly 2%, dragged down by the bankingbanesto firs.

brought forward losses or birggr provisions for the real estate sector. yields still contained pretty much where we were. 5.46%. yields in spain, they dropped yesterday when one of the ecb governing counsel members said we can't relaunch the bond buying program. slightly higher today, but away from the 6% mark. so they were looking to raise 5 billion. we raised about 4.88. not bad. key was on the three year issue. you can see the yields 3.93, yields in the auction came in a little lower. also the bid to cover a little bit low. we had a bid to cover last time in mid may of 1.56. they raise the the money they wanted, but as we thought,

yields were certainly higher and the bid to cover a little bit lower. so fine against expectations, but not the best result potentially. so it hasn't actually changed the italian yields very much, but the focus again today is on banks being sold off here. back to you. >> thank you very much. back here, the stock market regaining some footing closing higher yesterday. actually having its best day in quite a while. the dow and s&p 500 snapping five day losing streaks. and joining us for more perspective is rich steinburg and david gilmour on the currency markets. rich, what do you think is more indicative of where we're headed, the five day losing streak or the bounce back we saw yesterday? >>. >> i think we'll bounce back more. we're in this kind of black and white period debate within the kuwaiti markets.

is the game over, is the bull market over? same with the bond markets. the yield's over, the yield has gone back to a 220, now it's back below two. this is very healthy for the markets. underlying earnings are still going to be good. if rates stay as low as they are, we're going to see money naturally moving back into equities over a long cycle once we know that the earnings season that's starting is not going to be as weak as people think. >> but you're buying this idea that this could be really good news and if we continue to see low yields, there's no place to go at the stock market in. >> correct. and i don't think the news has to be good, but it doesn't have to be as bad as people are expecting. and that's a critical point because we saw that in europe in the fourth quarter, the news was less worse and we got a big move starting in the first quarter when things started to not be as bad. >> when you say the news not as

bad as people were expecting, you mean somethilike earnings t surprise and the momentum can change for the whole market? >> alcoa tends to be lumpy. i'll be much more interested when we see ge's earnings. i think google's earnings today at the close will start to give us a sense of where things are going. and we'll get a better sense of how u.s. companies are doing in europe because a large portion of multinationals earnings are still european based. so i think that will be an important today data point for us to see. if the economy especially on the consumer names where some of the higher dividends payers haven't done as well, you may get some more money flows back in to those names if we see that the european earnings portion isn't as bad as people think. >> david, have you been surprised by you how the dollar

as not done as well against the euro given all the concerns out of europe and the idea that the economy does seem to be moving along here in the united states? >> yeah, i think that's the big surprise so far. we just can't get below 1.30. and i think there's a kind of technical explanation behind it in part. and this is always something that economists like myself default to. because you can't really measure it. but high frequency fx trading systems are now about 60% of all volume in ffx and the discretionary crowd has withdrawn somewhat from trading. hedge funds are not as active, returns are not great. the cost of credit has gone up in the post 2008 period. so we've kind of seen the shift. and models don't care about spanish housing prices. they don't care about italian bond auctions. they learned that selling euros below 1.30 doesn't make any

money, so there's these ranges put in place by this dynamic shift in the marketplace. >> is there something to be said for the idea, though, that the actions by the federal reserve are throwing everything on their head some y head? you can look at the u.s. treasury bonds and see the yield at 2% and think this is because this is a flight to safety, but the dollar is no longer the place where you'll go for safety because of the incredible amount of dollars that have been printed? >> well, i would say all else being equal, i would say yes. but all else is not equal. ballooning their balance sheets. fed balance sheet has grown about a trillion dollars. so it's somewhat offsetting. everyone is in this post 2008 funk, they can't get economies growing and the best they can do is keep them from chancing. and so we're kind of in this

very depressed environment for interest rates, the ability for currencies amongst those countries to move in any significant way is somewhat limited. so we're kind of in a bit of a general sideways pattern. >> so what's the best currency for this year? >> i still like the dollar. the u.s. economy is outperforming. europe is pursuing significant austerity measures germany is the winner in that. but i think eventually we'll be able to break through these algo ranges and get below 1.30. also the fed is pretty much at the end of qe. i saw yellen's comments. all she's saying is we're flexible. i don't see any hard commitment to a 2015 end to qe, nor do i

see any hard commitment to the hawk hawks arguing 2013. so it's pretty dollar supportive right now. >> guys, thank you very much. >> did you see the alert on eddie hlambert cut his holdings? i thought that his comments indicating that autozone was in a little better pgts than some position that some of the other retailers. >> how many listeners does limbaugh have? i'll show it to you -- >> oh, yes, rush lists -- >> it's five minutes of talking about cnbc and "squawk box" on rush's show. >> he does it a lot. >> but he has every quote from trump and ryan in that whole

debate. anyway, coming up, the future of sony, how they plan to turn itself around. first, sports news. in the nhl playoffs last night, the philadelphia flyers posting a 4-3 comeback victory over the penguins who people say will be tough to beat. that was in overtime. and then the predators beat the red winging 3-2 on cnbc. and the kings topped the canucks 4-2. but the real action was seen on cnbc in the commercial break when we took to the ice. hey, did you ever finish last month's invoices? sadly, no. oh. but i did pick up your dry cleaning and had your shoes shined. well, i made you a reservation at the sushi place around the corner. well, in that case, i better get back to these invoices... which i'll do right after making your favorite pancakes. you know what? i'm going to tidy up your side of the office. i can't hear you because i'm also making you a smoothie.

[ male announcer ] marriott hotels & resorts knows it's better for xerox to automate their global invoice process so they can focus on serving their customers. with xerox, you're ready for real business.

sony's new ceo outlining a revival strategy for the company. jon fortt joins us from san jose with more. >> good morning. a conference call from japan a couple hours ago and so was i. he was outlining the new vision for the troubled giant. that a look at the stock price and it tell us a good portion of the sorry. most recently, season any has been losing serious money on tvs. he talked about a company in crisis. we don't have the huksry to take our time, he said, we need to face reality and quickly

implement the solutions to season any's problems. but for analysts who asked questions after his presentation, the tough and you can was followed by vague plans. said sony doesn't have problems in entertainment or financial arms, he focused on the electronic business. sony will focus on gaming, imaging and mobile, but mobile includes the pc business which sony is keeping. they'll add a focus on medical technology. and here's what i was told earlier this year about what needs to happen with tvs. >> what we need to do is make sure that we're focused on delivering the best experience to our customers through the portfolio products that we have and that's to marry our products and make sure we have com belling prices whether

televisions, tablet devices or playstation format products. >> these are tweaks, not a major rethinks. he didn't give himself a deadline for spinning off the businesses he talked about which left analysts sounding a bit frustrated after that conference call. back to you. >> so, jon, thank you for that but bottom line, is this going to work? >> well, it depends on whether you think that sony is generally headed in the right direction and just not executing. that's what this tweak looks like. we talked about the 10,000 jobs that they plan to cut will this year, but what they're not doing is completely revamping the way they attack say cameras in the face of a smart phone threat or gaming. his attitude was we can grow share, they're still profitable. if they start to erode, this plan looks to be in trouble. >> i know we have to go, but one last question. and it involves activism.

i always wondered, i thought that sony would be a ripe target for an a activist who would want to shake things up. is that something that's not possible because they're based in japan? >> it's one of those piller companies in japan. i've often wondered if that's why it's hard to shake this company up in a huge way. he talked about, yes, we're cutting 10,000 job, but some of those jobs we'll spin off to other companies who will do our best to protect the workers. there is this sort of sense of sony as a quasi government entity needing to take care of the people of japan. makes it tough to change. >> jon, thanks for staying up i imagine all night at this point. >> feels like it. i got a nap. >> see you soon. when we come back, three major economic releases are coming up at 8:30. jobless claims, ppe a pchlppi a international vad. and in the next hour, the man,

the myth, the legend, jim chanos joins us onset. if you are one of the millions of men

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i don't know if you noticed yesterday, i said welcome back to squawk on a hurst morning yesterday on wednesday. >> got yourself of yourself. >> i feel bad to any viewer who woke up on wednesday and said, oh, my goodness, eithit's the w day. >> they believed you? >> i hope they thought i was wrong. >> you have that much credibility. >> i'm losing it sitting next to you. >> i do all that i can. >> joining us, ire are ira harr. >> pretty easy job. >> i'd love to get your views on

the weekly jobless claims. >> it's been a barely calm number. it won't be much. if it's 10,000 either way, i don't think it's a big deal. yellen resumed her soft stance last night, so the fed looks like a mixed bag at this point. so inflation probably will get a better look whether they're looking for 0.3 -- again, with the fed in play and of course now we have the european central bank actively in play as you discussed, it will be very difficult if these bonds to move out of here. >> we saw a jump of three year debt. how important is that in terms what have you're looking at? >> it's critical. because that's where it's all in play how. european debt markets are driving as we saw the action on tuesday when again we saw a lot of pressure in the spanish and

italian markets. lr it lrto is moving back. but as bundesbank -- sorry, as european central bank member said yesterday in a there's still plenty of room on the security market program for the ecb to intervene and then of course andrew, you produce the up the soros piece which i think if you read that carefully is filled with all types of concerns about europe. >> fair concerns or is george evil as mr. kernen likes to say? >> it's not that he's evil. he lays out his plans. but i think he has it wrong because he has the bundesbank is the one who can actually scotch will whole deal. it's really more importantly from my perspective the german constitutional court which is already said that all withis

bailout is on the cusp of undermining the entire court which led to the treaty. so that could -- and it won't be the bundesbank, it will be the german constitutional court. and mr. soros doesn't make one illusion to that. but i think that's a far greater danger than the bundesbank. >> we'll get george and you together and do a debate. could be a fine squawk moment. >> comments or questions, e-mail us. coming up, he runs one of the world's biggest phrma and biotech trade groups. what does john kass castelanni see coming down the pipeline. zap. it's our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz.

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welcome back. dow looks like it would open about 43, 44 points higher. nasdaq higher, as well, as would the s&p 500. making headlines this morning, apple is working on a mac malware fix, but the company is taking heat from the sign are security community which says apple has been dragging its heels. sxermtds say the malware in question may vin effected up to 600,000 macs. everybody said macs couldn't been effected. >> that's what i thought, too. >> and apparently some of the viruses can be used to steal sense difference user information. apple has issued patches and is developing software to detect and eliminate the malware. it's not so much that apple was -- >> was nobody creating the viruses? >> it was nobody was creating them. and now you have to imagine

everyone's going to -- >> you have the iphones and the ipads and you have all the different things that people are now doing with their money over those things. i can understand why it's a target. >> microsoft is like welcome to the party. >> so you're a content guy. your content is genius and worth a lot. >> and so is yours. as is beckys. all of this content on the table. >> holder -- don't get me started. is that where the problem is, that the consumers are getting screwed on ebooks? it's already costs nothing to get an ebook. >> they say consumers got hosed for millions of -- >> you can use hosed in the same way that you use -- >> yes, but it's a little more lady like. but they said consumers lost millions of dollars by paying either $12.99 or $14.99.

>> but amazon was dumping -- >> and they did the tax thing with the states. >> and amazon's plan is to eventually become a monopoly. >> we're content guys, right? >> i always remember when my book came out, and i don't know if you had the same issue, the book i think sold to retailers wholesale to amazon for like $13.99 or something like that. and they were selling it for $9.99. they were losing money on every single book. that can be right. >> you know the move from an that log to digital, we say this a lot, that we were turning in analog nickels -- or analog dollars for digital nickels. and there's been some other antitrust or justice department -- like go find something to do, you know, where it actually matters. >> this is the not industry to

be going after. >> maybe there will be no books at all. >> but the complaint is like a thriller. it's remarkable. >> they really were colluding. >> having secret meetings and you power breakfasts, dinners. >> yes, it's easy to have con fliskti flicting views on this. >> i don't know what to think about it except the other piece was that amazon is now already reducing prices again. so it's good pot consumer in the short term. the question is it good for the consumer in the long term. >> report out today finds members of the trade group phrma invested $49.5 billion in research and development last year. let's it at that time pulse tak phrma with john castellani.

>> big phrma makes up the largest pharmaceutical companies in the united states. so it's an important part of the ecosystem and that's why we're here in boston to talk about how we bring medicines to patients and how we bring jobs to the economy. >> i was cutting you slack. i'm looking at the journal which says that they're talking about deals that the insurance come made with the obama administration for obamacare but they say compared to the insurance company signing on, billy tozen was even worse who sold out to the white house for a song and bears the responsibility in large part for the bill. i was trying to say you're more biotech, right? >> no, we're the pharmaceutical industry. >> should you have signed on to that deal, was it worth it, did

you get enough in return? >> well, i wasn't here at the time, but let's talk about what's important from phrma's standpoint and that is our ability and america's ability to provide high quality health care, affordable medicine, for everybody in america. and that's what we're talking about when we look at what the health care system in the united states should be about. so all of the issues that were litigated and discussed in the affordable care act two years ago are still in front of us as we try to improve the system to make sure the patients are being -- >> we've seen a bit of the kind of stilted innovation that can result from too much price controlling. we don't want to have the drug development history of the european pharmaceutical sector over the last 20 years. we don't want that here, do we? >> no. what we do want is to continue to have the policies that foster that great jewel of the u.s. economy. think about it, you mentioned the number $49.5 billion just in he's 28 companies along. bru what that represents is 20%

of the total research and development that is done and funded by u.s. businesses across all sectors. so the pharmaceutical industry is the biggest contribute tore to research and development in the united states and it's not just our companies. it is what we support across the economy. another thing we'll be talking about here today is how we need a scientific ecosystem to support that r&d. and massachusetts right here in boston, there are about 85,000 jobs directly in the health care system and directly in the biopharmaceutical industry, but there are another 340,000 that do help with the clinical trials, do the research at the hospitals, at the academic centers, the great academic centers that are here. so it is a great boone to the economy as well as to patients and that's what we need to preserve. >> no doubt to enemy of the world in terms of our r and dcht

a r and dcht and the type of stuff that we're finding. we'll have the ceo of biogen on. he says it might be neuro degenerative diseases, that we can image a the lot of the stuff better. and that opens up pathways for ms and alzheimer's and parkinson's and all these heinous diseases that we could actually make some ground on over the next couple of years. >> absolutely. and that's what we're here to talk about. how do we sustain that promise of that kind scientific investigation so that we can get the treatments and cures that are badly needed for patients. the science is tough, but it is incredibly promising and that's what would he here to talk about, how do you capitalize on that, what are the policies that we need to continue to sustain that kind of innovation to bring these therapies to patients that they so desperately need. >> just in closing, is the

journal just wrong here that your industry should not have signed on to as you call it the affordable care act? depends on who you are whether you call it obamacare or affordable care agent. you have no worries that innovation would be hurt if this -- the supreme court is deciding what to do here. you don't have a preference either way? thumbs up or thumbs down on what they decide for innovation? >> nobody said -- no, at that time and now, nobody says that the affordable care act whatever you want to call it is perfect. it has a lot of flaws in it. it does affect, it will affect how we're able to continue to sustain the research and development model. all of those issues need to be examined and reexamined. you think about it, germany is on its seventh or eighth health care reform debate in the last 10, 15, 20 years. it didn't get it right in the affordable care right. it neateds to be revisited.

bad things they'd fneed fixed, things need preserved. but it will be driven by both the fiscal concerns and inadequacies of that act. >> if the supreme courts throw out that mandate, and don't throw out the rest of the law, it will be something to witness if that were to happen. they're seeing their life pass before their eyes right now. >> and i think if you listen to the arguments, which i know you did before the supreme court, there's a lot of concern that everything ties together. so it is a very important decision and we a wait what it is and we'll work with congress to react to it and, again, against the objective how do we provide access to americans for americans to affordable high quality health care. >> john, thank you for your time. coming up, it might not be a

household name like facebook or

. our ipo report card continues. shares of brightcove are up 64%

since going public. ceo jeremy allaire joins us. good morning. >> good morning. thanks for having me on. >> you've had an ipo, quite successfully. what's the biggest distinction for you being a public company? how has it changed your day to day? >> i don't think fundamentally it's changed the day to day very much. everyone in the company is focused on building great products, serving great customers. one of the keefe things related to why we went public, it's helping raise awareness and visibility of the platform software we offer to the market and that's beneficial. >> big questions about the ipo market these days, it's been lackluster, a lot of people arguing that tech companies like yourselves end up selling themselves, we saw the big

instagram deal. i don't want to out them but you had some conversations before you went public with some competitors. how are you thinking about that? >> i can't comment on any conversation specifically but what i can say is we were very clear really from the start or i was very clear from the start that trying to build a global independent company that has a huge impact on the world, ultimately that manse being a public very often. for us this is a milestone in the effort to build that global independent business and so, you know, i think when the markets open up and there's an opportunity to kind of push through, we seize that. >> shares went public at $11. we're now trading at about 17s $18. you are independent. a lot of competition coming. how do you think about that right now? >> well, you know, there's a lot of different companies that are interested in helping organizations around the world to put their digital media on the internet.

the specific market that we're in with our flagship product is what we call online video platforms. it's cloud based software to help organizations publish and distribute and generate revenue from video on the internet. that's different from consumer sites like youtube. we're clearly defined as the market leader. independent analysts characterize us as the market share leader, thought leader. we feel very good about our competitive position today. >> do you have a question? >> no. >> we have to run. have i so much to talk to you in terms of the tv business. >> would love that. thank you. >> why are they taking it -- >> it said one thing on the rundown. >> jim chanis will be here in

just a minute. they're one of those partners that i would really rely on whether it's finding new customers, or, a new location for my next restaurant. when we all come together, my restaurants, my partners, and the community amazing things happen. to me, that's the membership effect. [ technician ] are you busy? management just sent over these new technical manuals. they need you to translate them into portuguese. by tomorrow. [ male announcer ] ducati knows it's better for xerox to manage their global publications. so they can focus on building amazing bikes. with xerox, you're ready for real business.

getting back on track. stocks breaking a five-day losing streak. squawk market master jim chanos is stopping by. >> the big payoff at biogen. what they are doing that is raising eyebrows. the ceo is here with another exclusive can you not afford to miss. >> and living on the edge. what these new tablets have done to expand an already soaring category. ♪ living on the edge

good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. european debt is in the spotlight. yields on italian three-year debt rose to 3.889% from 2.76 a month ago. it has been seen as another sign investors remain skeptical about european debt situations. also foreclosure notices here in the united states are picking up following a nationwide settlement regarding foreclosure proceedings. foreclosure notices up 7% in march, the third monthly gain. and allegations that former ceo

brian dunn had an inappropriate relationship with a female employee. he resigned earlier this week. despite what we've seen with european debt issues, can you see the futures this morning here in the united states are still indicated higher. dow futures up by about 42 points, the s&p 500 up by over 5 points. joe? >> the squawk master with me for the remainder of the show, jim chanos, head and fonder of kynikos associates is with us. we'll get you some tea or something. a long way away from a tea party guy. we need to talk about your really cogent analysis of things. i want to ask you about the crazy story that the journal is

connecting dots, when you have closed government with no transparency. bizarre things can happen. and what does this say? >> some people have dubbed the party "the family." >> like la costa nostros, right? >> this boej lie thing is very interesting. we're seeing a real struggle. it seems like we've seen trumped up charges here as an attempt to quash his supporters, there was rumors of violence. >> he was the communist party leader. >> and how many places have a million people? >> i love this picture, number one. but i also love the slogan.

>> livable -- look at those high rises. is there anyone living in any of those? >> he was also a maoist. that's important to know. he is a throwback to the more leftist part of the party, which, you know, some would say is progress. his click being put aside. it's too early to tell. i think it's kabuki theater. >> what do you think with this haywood guy? >> i don't know. >> was it the wife? >> i don't know. >> she's already been arrested. >> she was going to sell

property and buy gold with it. >> a young lady, they're looking for her husband. she has to serve two years in prison before they shoot her. >> this story is gaining a lot of attention, front page of "the wall street journal" today. >> it's going to be the slowest growth in a while but they wanted it to slow down. we've seen that here a few times, too. >> but what's it mean? are they orchestrating -- >> they are trying desperately to still cool the property sector. if they say growth is going to be 8%, i can assure you it's going to be 8% or 8.1 or 8.2.

the property sales, steel crisis, power consumption appears it's slowing faster. >> what was the story behind the story with -- wasn't it -- who said that the banks are monopolies and we got to rein them in? was it wen? >> they also came out and said no more property seizures by localities. but that law has always been on the books. you have to be careful. a lot of this is lip service. i would believe it when i see it. in china the banks are armed state policy. >> like citigroup. >> they loan because the regional party official tells them we need a new stadium, we have an empty stadium over here, it doesn't matter. you make the loan.

they're instruments of state policy. i really doubt that the party is going to give up a lef rant power by breaking up the banks. >> you would never short the banks. >> we are short the banks. >> they're ultimately going to be protected by the government. >> that doesn't mean the western shareholders are going to do well. in fact, you are the actual arm which they're raising capital to raise the capital. see petro, so pemias. and by the way, we're going to keep tapping you over and over and over again. >> what's the timeline? >> i keep getting asked that. if you looked at the performance of the banks the last two years, you wouldn't be asking that question. they've been great shorts. they've been going down. they're down 30% to 40% over the last two years. >> you've got the world against you. we have all these guys coming out constantly, i won't mention

any names -- >> i was going to. >> the china enablers. just at your own risk. people know him from enron but before -- when was morely? >> '82. >> i was 5. >> i was fully baldwin united. he had all his clients involved with united. so when it went down to 2 on his quotetron machine, i put all of his stocks on bdw -- >> why am i surprised? >> do you think you're the only one who get hazed? >> but weren't you 20 years old? >> i was a little older, 24, 25. >> but you a this annuity business. they were supposed to make p pian pianos. >> they were double counting

assets in their insurance company. >> this was the biggest high flyer. everyone thought baldwin united, they couldn't go wrong. >> it was largest financial bankruptcy in the u.s. up until that time. >> up until then. >> jim, wen is trying to make some moves to open things up a little bit. >> they can't quite keep the technicology genie in the bottl. we say that last year with some of the regional disturbances, people were reporting and shutting them down. in this day and age tipping points can be reached very quickly in society in the long set of circumstances.

>> is that part of your guatemagamble? >> no. i would be long the communist party. >> you're not long twitter unrest? >> no, this is all financial and economic, not political. >> although initially they censored all these stories, said it's rumor mongering and couldn't search -- you still can't search tiananmen. ask someone in china, they don't know where that is. >> but you can search my name in china and get all my opinions. >> really? >> they open political -- >> facebook. you can't go to facebook in china but can you use instagram. and they're upset that facebook has taken over instagram because

afraid they're going to close it down. >> sony's new ceo outlining a revival strategy today. the electronics giant will cut 10,000 jobs and plans to focus on mobile electronics like phones, games and cameras. shares of sony recovering overseas this morning just a bit but you look at that chart and i imagine if i had a time machine, jim chanos might had a something to say about sony. >> and the cyber community says apple has been dragging its heels on a fix. apple has issued patches and is developing software to detect

and eliminate the malware. >> joe, i realize i read what i was not supposed to. >> if i said something every time you did that, that's all we'd be talking about on the show. go ahead, read. >> if you've got comments, questions about anything you see here on squawk, shoot us an e-mail here. you can also follow us on twitter. and then biogen stock has been hitting an all-time high in april. the company has been thriving since its ceo took over. >> who is that? the sweet spot that powers sound decisions. duff & phelps financial advisory and investment banking services.

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. new york federal reserve bank making comments this morning. >> two vice chairs actually, dudley, the vice chair of the fmoc, and yellen last night, saying the reports on the u.s. economy has been a bit more upbeat and notes even housing starts have firmed, though they remain depressed. it's too soon, he said, to

conclude the economy is out of the woods. he notes the march labor market may have been affected by mild weather and recent economic data is not strong enough to make a big dent in economic slack. fourth quarter growth was boosted by inventory accumulation and says quarters that follow that often ease off. at least he thinks that's what's happening now. gdp will expand at a rate of 2 1/4% and recent growth rate ares barely keeping up with potential so he doesn't expect too much dent to be brought into the unemployment rate, which he calls still unacceptably high, noting the productivity has slumped. he mentioned high gasoline prices, weakness in the housing sector and fiscal drag they expect to come at the end of the year. i want to get to what janet

yellen said last night. i thought what she was doing when i think about the total sum of the 21-page paper that she put out last night with the charts and graphs was that bottom line is she's in the middle here, that defending current policy will do more if things get worse. i don't hear her saying they'll do any more, yellen or dudley. i did think yellen said what caught attention was even if operation twist ends right now, which is scheduled to do, she won't consider that a tightening of policy. suggesting that maybe they're going to let operation twist end without any potential continuation. >> the other thing i heard that she said that i thought was interesting is she said, look, i'm data dependent essentially, i'm still looking at the numbers as they come in and i can change my opinion based on that, which people keep thinking this is a

promise to not raise rates before 2014 or so and that's just not the case. there could be changed if the economy -- >> either way. >> right. >> i feel like by now it's already thursday. i know what i began the week i was supposed to cover nine of the 17 members of the fomc. i don't feel like anybody is seriously telegraphing to the markets qe3 being imminent. >> particularly if you're somebody like yellen being somebody like this, particularly when she's been one of the most dovish out there. >> she's been one of the most dovish out there. as the vice chair of the fed, she cannot stray too far from where bernanke is. sheep can't be too dovish or too hawkish. she has to be sort of a van

guard. >> i remain to adjust my policy views in response to incoming information. in particular further easing actions could be warranted if the recovery proceeds at a slower-than-expected pace while a significant acceleration in the pace of recovery could call for an earlier beginning to the process of policy firming than the fomc currently anticipates. >> if you didn't know what that was, you may think it was like sort of a sayance with the glow on her face. >> i heard the sound bite earlier. >> she's right in the middle there. i'm not hearing her say imminent monetary easing.

i think draghi found out when he heard no third ltro, you're free to short the sovereign over on the european side. >> we had a spirited debate yesterday pointing out the direct causations between the easings and the equity market. when the easings stop, the equity markets fall. when they come back, they gallop at a 30% clip. will they be looking at the assets or the markets? >> they admit they're looking at the assets. >> and they have cover because the weather effect helps the economy. why even separate the two. >> a couple of observers point out, who is speaking up for the savers? nobody. nobody. >> rick santelli is speaking up for the savers.

as you try to block his deference every step of the way. you say, rick, you're not speaking up for the savers. >> all i tell you and i simply report what the thinking is they feel savers would have been way worse off if the fed had not stepped in, the value of the finance assets they own -- >> the bank cds? >> not bank cds. >> that's what the average person has. >> he does this all the time. the home assets. >> which step in are you talking about? they've stepped in it about ten times. there's no a single one savers would have been better off -- >> there may have been a single one. >> what is it you mean? >> you're going back to the initial looking into the abyss. we would have all been worse off if the fed hadn't helped out at that time but --

>> it's interesting. i can just tell what you their point of view is. they look at the current performance of the economy and they say this proves that we need to be doing what we're doing and possibly do more. you look at it, joe, i think and say this proves that what they're doing is causing the economy to be where it is right now. >> maybe not them but some of their cohorts in d.c., their or friends. >> it's a lack of market signals. with a very accommodative fed, does the government, does the executive and the legislative branch really feel that incentive to get a deal done, to do something to get our fiscal situation in order when they know bernanke is sitting there willing to do anything? >> well, what's happening in europe right now, do you feel be like what's happening in europe is proof that austerity is a good measure at this time for the economy? >> no, i think it's a terrible,

terrible -- >> somebody just put nails on a black board. >> but i am a firm believer that central banks can seasoned as many wrong signals as -- >> i don't disagree, jim. all i would say is that at this time when there's so many cutbacks in the private sector of the economy, there's been a retrenchment which you could argue is above and beyond that which makes sense under almost any scenario other than perhaps the complete end of the world and i think what the government did in stepping up and i call it taking a stake in america, i think what hank paulsen did at the time, which you covered andrew, put a floor in the bottom, made as soon as to me. >> that part made sense. >> what happens if there is a tightening in the fed? >> you mean fed funds rate goes to 2%?

>> maybe. >> what if they just start cutting down the balance sheet and letting a lot of the stuff roll off? >> we'll have to see. i mean, do you think that this federal reserve has it in its dna to rapidly take away the easing? i don't see it. i've never seen that from this fed. >> jim is our guest host. he's going to be with us the rest of the morning. steve, thank you very much. >> interesting conversation. >> still to come, an exclusive interview with the ceo of biogen. and a stock to watch this morning, avid technology, down 17% in after-hour trading. a drop in demand is driving this. "squawk" will be right back. >> time for our aflac trivia

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on this day in 1970, what song by smokey robinson and the miracles reached number one on the billboard hot 100 list? the answer: "the tears of a clown." >> aflac! >> comments, questions about anything you see here, shoot us an e-mail or follow us ot twitter. coming up next, biogen plans to release several drugs. and erotic book sales. they're heating up in the tech sales. it's only 7:30 in the morning. we'll return with that and a lot more.

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. welcome back to "squawk box" this thursday morning.

among the stories we're following, ford trying to improve fuel economy by cutting as much as 750 pounds from the weight of its vehicle. it's forming a joint venture with dow chemical, using more lighter weight carbon and fiber components in truck and suv vehicles. and new data out showing yahoo!'s market share down 1.1% from the prior month and it's the seventh straight monthly decline. google dominating. microsoft bing is at 15.3%. joe. >> it has been nearly two years sense george scangos took the helm of biogen, the stock recently hit an all-time high, with likely two dozen drugs hitting the market, you've got

it all. does it help to be so steeped in research? this there's always this question of who should be running a biotech company. sometimes they think researchers can do it, other times it's got to be a businessman. you've proven it, haven't you? >> i don't know if one case proves the general example. but we've had a good run at biog biogen. i think most people believe making science data driven does help. >> in the past, ms, it's a horrific disease, great market for biogen. it's always been injectable. there's one pill that game before your potential pill for ms. why has your stock responded so

favorable with your pill when there's already one on the market. is it better? >> we're very excited about b 1 bg-12, thename of our new drug. the drug seems to be very ef kashs, has a great safety profile. we file for approval in the u.s. and europe. the drug seems to be more efficacious than the current drugs, it seems to be very safe and we're very excited about it and we think the general community is excited about it as as well. >> who is the company that has a pill already? >> novartis.

>> does your pill -- is it better? you probably like it better. >> of course we like it better. >> we think bc-12 has the potential to be one of the leading treatments for ms. it seems to be very efficacious, has a good safety profile and seems to be well tolerated. >> how far are we away from getting somewhere from alzheimer's, park -- parkinsons and other neurodegenerative diseases? >> aside from our focus on ms, we have a phase three compound to treat lou gehrig disease. that's a devastating disease, patients are in dire need of

some treatment. we have early programs in alzheimer's disease, parkinson's. and also a devastating disease that affects infant. >> and you say new programs allow you to look intra cellular. what is the technique that allows us to start making progress here looking at -- give it to me. what is it it? >> you're talking about alzheimer's, for example. if you want to understand whether your drug is having an impact on the development of alzheimer's disease, you need to know first whether the patients do have alzheimer's versus other kinds of dementia. a few years ago it was hard to tell that. now because of new imaging techniques and cognitive tests it's early to tell patients what

neurodegenerative disease they have and target more drugs for those patients. there are plaques that appear in alzheimer's disease and other diseases have different ones. can you tell whether your drug is lessening the number and the size of those plaques or not. >> we had a show looking at the career of richard rainwater, it's a plasma p, a horrific disease, it's similar to alzheimer's but has a different, i guess -- it looks different than alzheimer's the way the plaques form. >> some sort of a palsy. i think it was a palsy they called it. it's more rare than palsy but sim lawyer because it involves the tao protein. this is all because of

imaging -- aggressive super nuclear -- >> it's not all because of imaging. it's one of the reasons we're focused on neurodegenerative diseases. alzheimer's is the best known, parkinsons is best known. you need to know what patients have what so can you target the drugs to the appropriate patients. that's what you do with the imaging. you then have to understand the path ot ology of the disease toe up with good ways to treat the disease. that's why we're focused on neurodegenerative diseases. we think there's huge potential. we're getting sufficient understanding about the disease processes, able to diagnose the diseases accurately and personally i'm very excited to treat the poor pashs that have

these diseases with increasingly better drugs over the next four years. >> a $30 billion company biogen is. you embarked on restructuring a couple years ago, bearing fruit. we appreciate your time today. >> thank you. >> e-rotic book sales. you looking at me? because i'm looking at this? >> courtney, who better to bring us the story. the romantic times book convention. >> where else would i be? the economics of erotica are very black and white. i've got the story with my new friends coming up on "squawk box."

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it involves an alleged conspiracy to keep e-book prices high. it allows amazon.com to continue discounting the price of e-books. of course a big debate over whether the government should have been going after the book publishers to begin with. but now we've got another book story that may be even more interesting. between 50 shades of gray and more people owning tablets, the erotica category, which has always been hot, is now apparently on fire. >> courtney reagan, i don't know how she got this assignment pip hope to get this. >> where'd they go? >> they're here.

>> it's the 29th annual romantic lovers book show. the romance category raked in $1.36 billion. erotica is steamier than ever. margaret turry said her company has seen a 40% bump since "50 shade of gray." many credit the book with bringing mommy porn to the forefront, but while sales of "50 shades of gray" are reigniting the racy category, many credit e-books for saving erotica. with the tablet, biography and reading the books are more discrete. >> with the different types of tablets out today, can you get

away with a lot more risque type of literature to read. instead of sitting there on a plane and you have some fabio looking cover model on the front, you just have a basic apple symbol. >> amazon's e-book share shas fall i don't know from 90% in 2009 to around 60% now but it does still dominate its rivals. elora's cave sold just 39.5 per month, now the average 190,000. borders, it's 30% of their business. when the company went bankrupt, it was devastating until christmas day when they made up all of their loss to borders in just one day. >> so i'm confused.

these shirtless men that are having conversations behind you as if nothing is happening, they're not authors, are they? >> they're not authors. these are the cover models. >> so we've got authors here, readers here, publishers -- >> are those guys going to be out of a job when you have no cover left? >> well, this is why most of them have other jobs. one of the guys behind me runs a landscaping business. i think they have their backup plan. >> there are no ladies involved in this, are there? it's just shirtless men? >> there are some beautiful women on many of the covers but none of the cover models that are women are here because most of the event attendees are women so they like to see the guys a little bit more. >> we're going to have to have our own convention. >> courtney, the dude you had on earlier was an author, though.

he looked like he could be sort of both. >> exactly. not on is he an author, he's a doctor, he's a fitness coach. a lot of the authors here have other jobs. it's very interesting. it used to just be supplemental income -- >> what kind of doctor? a love doctor? >> no, he's a medical physician. he's a medical physician, an m.d. >> no kidding. he's a renaissance. >> it's soft porn, don't you think? we'll start a different type of -- >> you guys keep this to yourself. doesn't involve me in this. >> you live this. >> oh. courtney, enjoy yourself out there. maybe not too much but i don't know. >> okay. >> we'll see you soon. >> coming up, more from our

guest host jim chanos of kynikos partners. in our next hour, we add a second squawk master to the mix. don't tell me this guy couldn't be on a cover either. pimco's ceo jones us. >> friday the 13th on "squawk bo box", investors dig in to earnings from google. plus we chop up jp morgan earnings. with their numbers send chills down the spine of investors? plus guest ann mulcahey. or is it just a copy of the guest host? to and in tomorrow to find out. .

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let's get some more thoughts from our guest coast jim chanos. i'm curious, you gave a presentation yesterday at grant's and there were two pieces i wanted to focus in on. one was an interesting way to think about the world and how you think about investing and the other was i wanted to drill down to a couple of themes and companies you're focused on in particular. i wish we had the charts to put up. when you think about trying to find the next short, if you will, what are you looking for?

>> it can be a combination of things, andrew. valuation is probably the least important determinant when we're looking at ideas on the short side. we're looking for flawed businesses, we're looking for flawed accounting, we're looking for technological changes that -- >> a big theme for you now is technological changes. >> it has been for 15 years. the internet has been a leveller. it's been a great, great economic tool and it's created great wealth but it has also made a lot of businesses obsolete. >> one of the companies you're short and you talk about is coin star? >> yes. >> why? >> we don't have the graphic unfortunately but the graphic showed total digital entertainment spending in the u.s. is declining. peaked about four years ago. and dvds as a percent are now beginning to do what vhs

cassettes did ten years ago. they're beginning their decline. and coin star has, unlike netflix, which has transitioned out of -- or is trying to -- of the hard dvd copy, coin star is in the business of renting you dvds out of a kiosk. >> the red box. >> yes. and cash flow margins in these types are business are very high because you're the last guy standing and everybody who wants to rent dvds come to you but inexorably you reach a tipping point where dvds are supplanted by streaming. >> how long are you willing to be patient for? >> our typical holding period has historically been about a year. but we've had shorts on for three, four, five years. remember, a professional short seller gets paid while you wait. we earn interest, though in this

environment that's neg ligiblen. >> you're also focused on mobile computing. what does it mean? >> smartphones took off three years ago. up saw the hockey stick sort of growth pattern and tablets are just interestingly, are just beginning to do that now. if you go into board rooms or conference rooms around america right now, the only thing you pretty much see are tablets. you don't see people lug notebooks in anymore. even the class i teach at yale, most of the kid now have tablets in front of them as opposed to putting notes into a notebook. so it's happening before your eyes and it's a declining business. ultimately margins will compress and there will be some casualties on the road i think of -- >> but do you look at a company like dell, which i think you are short, do you ever look at a

technology company and sap they can reemerge? a company is going this way and then you look that which and then bam -- >> yeah, but for every company, there's ten that doesn't get out of their core competence. people tend to view them as value stocks, they're very cheap, they're going to distribute cash to the shareholders. that almost never happens. kodak, which was selling patents. what did they do? they entered the printer business. >> your views on rim for example? >> we were short. we covered our short. we have no position. >> when did you cover your short sp. >> last year in the 20s. we were short in the 60s. >> you see these happen a long time in advance. >> we remember a lot of

computers. remember dec? >> yes, i remember data general. >> at that time you heard the same story, they've got an installed base, they can generate -- harvest the cash. it never happens. >> i remember eagle computer. do you? >> flew off the cliff, drove it off the cliff. >> they weat's the whole 128 st, the whole intellectual property route in massachusetts. >> still to come in the next hour of "squawk," we have robert shiller, the co-founder of the case shiller index and professor of economics and pimco's

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stocks staging a comeback. the dow climbing 90 points after a five-day slide. are bulls setting up for a rally. >> massachusetts betting big on the biotech sector for job growth with a healthy payoff, unemployment in the bay state is below 7 p%, the lowest level sie 2008. we'll talk to massachusetts governor duval patrick. >> and international trade numbers all due at 8 a.m. eastern. the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business

worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. our guest host is jim chanos. it's up about a half a percent after about a 90-point gain in the dow yesterday. s&p back to 1,368. where did the guy from morgan stanley say we're going, 1300? >> nobody has to listen to what i say. they better listen to him. >> weekly jobless claims set to hit the tape at 8:30 eastern. the number of first-time filers

likely rose by 1,000 to 358,000. we'll get march producer price index, ppi to rise by 0.3%. the federal deficit is expected to shrink slightly. we're going to keep our eyes on all of that. tony's new ceo outlining a revival strategy for the company today. they'll cut 10,000 jobs and planning to focus on mobile electron, likes phones, games and cameras. sony is also targeting growth in its medical business with annual sales of $1.2 billion. shares of sony are recovering overseas this morning. let's take a quick check on the european markets. european equities at this our are all ticked up nicely but it's not changing the world just

yet. >> back here in the united states, earnings season is officially under way. joining us to talk about the markets is squawk masters of equities, neel kashkari. neel, you have a new note that is just out this morning. in it you lay out a reasoning and defense of why you think corporate profits are actually guantanamo bay to be very strong and corporate margins pretty strong. that's an unusual view and a lot of people have been worried about it. why do you think they're going to be strong? >> i think they're going to be strong in the short term. labor prices, labor cost. we saw the unemployment report was very weak. we think unemployment is going to stay high for the near future. we're not forecasting a recession or global slowdown, new type of economic growth, slow growth bu avoiding a recession. dollar. we're not forecasting the dollar strengthening. we're secular bearers on the dollars, long-term gradual

decline on the dollar. we think the fed will keep the call tall low and we don't think corporate taxes are going up any time soon. across all five of those measures, we think corporate profits can stay strong. obviously individual companies may see pressure, individual companies may improve margins but as a whole week see many of these factors are going to be supportive for corporate margins for the near future at least. >> you're telling people to double down and push more into equities? >> we're being very selective. our views are equities haven't changed over the last several monies. the isn'tment over the world has gone from fear to euphoria back toward fear again. we're buying individual names all around the world that we like but we're also focused on managing down side risk. the risks from europe have remained as people are reminded of now and the risk of the u.s. being beholden to the monetary

policy of the federal reserve. >> part of that thesis, though, is that the fed is going to continue to have some very easy monetary policy. we're heard from yellen and from dudley overnight, yellen had some interesting comments where she did say if it's warranted, they could come back in with more easing. but she also gave herself a big room for an out by saying it looks like things have been getting better with set ago side of the march jobs number and if they continue to improve, they could pull back even more. would this throw your thesis off sm. >> it certainly could but that's not our central forecast. every time the fed tries to back away from their massive, easing policy, the risk markets react. we saw that with the fomc minutes. this is like a morphine drip. you give morphine to the patient, it makes the patient feel better, doesn't cure the underlying disease the moment you take it arngs the

patient wakes up horrified if a lot of pain. i think they are get addicted to the fed policy, as they pull away, they ewill respond and it will put more pressure on the fed to act. >> jim chanos is our guest host today. on that theory of the patients screaming for more morphine, do you think that he holds true and is at play? >> observably that's the pattern. when the fed takes the punch bowl slightly away, the markets blanche and they've come right back. the question i ask is is that good policy? but do you think that needs to be weaned? >> i absolutely do. this is sending the wrong sick nal -- signals to our policy makers

and the markets. we should let the markets take care of themselves. that seems to be where they're focused, the markets. >> i think jim is right. the fed is the only policy agent able to do anything. we'd be better to see the congress act but it's an imperfect lever. >> a speaker yesterday pointed out that the bundesbank in 1989 and 1990 when germany was facing reunification issues threatened to take interest rates through the roof, no matter what it would do to the economy just so

they could focus the various legislative bodies in germany to getting their act together. we have no such resolve in any central bank today anywhere in the world. >> you were there in washington as everything was going down as one of the architects of tarp. we talked earlier about how that was necessary at that point, how you could look into the abyss. but now that we're here, what would you like to see as somebody who is -- where you pull away, even with or without washington's help? >> well, i think that that's tough because many americans are still suffering. we have a tale of two economies today, 4% unemployment for people who have college gree gres, 13% unemployment for people who have not graduated from high school. if we were to push unemployment back higher again to 10% or higher, millions of americans.

i would like to see the american people hold our politicians accountable and force them to take hard decisions to make our economy more competitive. >> monetary policy cannot fix long-term central unemployment problem. correct is. >> no, you're absolutely right. ilt a short-erm eliker on or overnight or quickly. they take years to turn on. >>. >> you look around the globe and you find things you really think are attractive. can you lay some of those out for us? >> sure. we continue to see many, many risks from europe, greece, portugal and now italy and spain but we are finding european names we like. unsko is one of the largest ultra deep water fleets.

it has about 10% free cash flow yield, trading at about ten times our estimates of earnings. it's an example of a european company though it's not at risk. and tied to long-term global economic growth. >> what's another one? >> here in the u.s., viewpoint financial is a small texas thrift most of your viewers have never heard of. we're not buying banks generally but buying very selective names. viewpoint is trading at about 1.25 tangible books when most of ielts piers are trading so we are finding names today in equities globally. >> jim, he didn't mention anything you're shorting, did he? >> no, and i wouldn't expect him

to. >> looking at the bond market and what we've soon from treasuries recently with that 2% falling below it and today just stabilizing just above that. do you think that's a long-trm fed is going to continue to be very aggressive. again, we're taking them at facial you. she was quite dovish, which is not unexpected. i expect they'll says eased until 2014. while the fed is graefl managing the front of the curve, i expect these to stay in the -- people will reason back into treasuries if people think the fed is backing away. for nour ou central forecast is of -- you look at the ecb and what they've done. there's going to be some things door ou think all of.

>> when you have a global debt overhang, we have it in the u.s., there's debt overhang in japan, massive egeneral ends up being the toll of choice for tral -- >> devaluing. >> trying to devalue the dollar and devalue their all right. so this is something we can live can with for a while. neal kneel, it's always great talking to pu. >> thank you, becky. >> imagine you have an idea for a startup idea and you describe it from the internet attribute small amounts of capital. it is called crowd funding and

it could professor robert shiller will plane second ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] this is the at&t network... a living breathing intelligence bringing people together to bring new ideas to life. look. it's so simple. [ male announcer ] in here, the right minds from inside and outside the company come together to work on an idea. adding to it from the road, improving it in the cloud all in real time. good idea. ♪ it's the at&t network -- providing new ways to work together, so business works better. ♪

social media has brought crowd funding to the world of investing. we're join by robert shiller, professor of economics at yale university and co-founder of the case index. we have come together, professor. we are soul mates now because we need to. we at least need to point out the benefits of entrepreneurialship and free enterprise. we can talk about some of the details obviously and we've been through a tough period the last four, five years but we both at least agree that free enterprise is a positive thing. now, with that in mind, i look at the reaction to this jobs bill that was passed, the one called the jobs bill. and the president was there smiling with some republicans. it was a little bit bipartisan, but you've seen the reaction from places like "the huffington

post," just the complete ire raised from this bill to some on the left. you go back to 1811, the new york corporate law which made it easier to incorporate and the limited liability for investors. i'll bet you that was met with the same type of response when it came out, but since then it ushered in the democratization of wall street, right? >> right. the issue is i guess freedom for the people but if you give people freedom, they might mess up and make mistakes. but i think we have to allow that. that's how we have a vibrant society. it's deeper than just business. it's about everything we do. >> i mean, we have to make -- we have to make individual decisions at some point and we have to be allowed to fail. otherwise there's no such thing as rnd success and earned success is what really makes it worth living at i think. so what was in the jobs act? you didn't mention it in your

book because the job act was already done. we're talking about what is called crowd funding specific that one of the things that the far left really disliked about that bill i? saw this was going to usher in a thousand new madoffs, this jobs act. >> that's the worry. but i think it's the same worry as when they launched wikipedia. you would think a freeline, a wiki, would generate thousands of oftphony articles but it has happened on wikipedia. >> i'm going to take the other side of it. we have jim chanos here. i could argue this crowd funding is going to ultimately lead to the recreation of the boiler rooms, and find lot of experiences that are

ultimately -- if your income sund 100,000, you're not allowed to put more than 5% or $2,000 in. okay. you might lose 5% of your income. i think that is not devastating. the real problem with the boiler rooms back in the 1920s is they wiped people out. >> but this is ultimately, by the way, blt retail investors. it's not about the institutional investors. it is about taking mom and pop's money and putting it to work. i can see why that could be a good things in terms of being able to access capital but i can also see the other side it have. >> i think this is a cultural chang. this is one step. america as prided itself as the most pu most entrepreneurial company. but it's a mine or the who invest actively.

it will empower ut. it won't be leaving it all to the government or to big organizations. and it's really important that we democratize wall street. this is what we should be doing. >> chanos is shaking his head here. >> but professor, is it wise to do it on the back of less disclosure? and that's really i think one of the arguments that concerns me is that a lot of these companies will be coming forward. i'm all for letting companies raise money in the markets and read the prospectus and paid your money and take your chances but if we don't have good disclosure, which is one of the good things that came out of cracking down on the boiler rooms of the 20s, are we taking a step backwards? we already have a problem with retail participation in the equity markets because people think the game is rigged. >> i think this jobs act is an experiment. like anything else, it depends on a social reaction and how

people learn from each other, how the internet develops, how information starts to develop. it could be that it works out badly, but the other side of this is if we require extensive disclosure, that's going to kill small business startups because they can't afford that. so there's a difficult trade-off and we're experimenting with it. i'm optimistic that we'll learn something positive that will allow for more small businesses. but there are worries. >> we've talked so many times about animal spirits and you haven't updated us on -- where are we in -- let's just talk about here in the u.s. in terms of animal spirits. is it good? the market's up. is the market up because we feel better and the animal spirits are being conjured up or is it up because we have all this extraordinary fed action that we've seen? >> well, the stock market is up since 2009 because of an extraordinary growth of

earnings. the question to me is whether that's sustainable. some part of that is cost cutting. and there are still risks in the future that some are still weighing, like the further decline of house prices. there's likely to be millions of more families evicted from their homes because of nonpayment on their mortgages. there's things on the horizon that -- so the animal spirits are not back to 2005 levels. >> was that too much? did we overshoot then? >> we way overshot. >> is it too hot, too cold or just right right now? >> i'd say it's too cold. our sweat' palms is the symptom we have right now and it's not encouraging. the employment population ratio is kind of stuck at a bottom at

58.5%. that's a sign the unemployment rate is down, jobs aren't there. that is a chronic, smoldering problem that is weighing on people's psyches. >> and you're not convinced that we're not done with housing yet? we still got work to do there, too? >> well, our s&p case shows an interruption after the first time home buyers tax credit but they're still going down. they may turn up. i don't know. it's not obvious they're not going down at a rapid clip. but if they go down much more at all, we're going to have a worse problem and it going to hurt the banks and mortgage lenders. >> professor thanks. we'll see you. >> when we come back,

massachusetts governor duval will be here. and jobless claims and trade numbers are all due in six minutes' time. we'll have instant reaction. in . it confirms your reservation and the location your car is in, the moment you land. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the spef hertz.

>> oh, hi. coming up, a flood of economic

data, jobless claims and international trade numbers just a few minutes later. as we head to a break, take a look at the dow futures. "squawk" is coming back right after this. dle time books and smash records and on small business saturday they remind a nation of the benefits of shopping small. on just one day, 100 million of us joined a movement... and main street found its might again. and main street found its fight again. and we, the locals, found delight again. that's the power of all of us. that's the power of all of us. that's the membership effect of american express.

>> we are just a few seconds away from all these numbers we've been waiting for. rick santelli is standing by. we've got jobless claims, ppi, trade data and it all hits right now. >> here we go. let's look at the trade balance. it actually improved. less red ink on the deficit. last month's 52.5 billion, worst trade deficit since the fourth quarter of '08, a prepreviousre billion. if you're looking year over year, the headlines just like the headline, a month over month was easier at 2.8 versus 3.3 and if you look at year over year with respect to core, 2.9, very

close to the 3%. jobless claims jump from 357, to 380,000. it jumped 13,000 on the week, but in my mind it jumped 23,000 because obviously you add a 10,000 revision to the up side. if you look at continuing claims, they reversed a bit from just shy of 3.35 million to 3.25 million and the after math of all of that is pretty much a 202 yield on tens, which were a -- equity market gains were up 44. that 44 billion is the smallest since october of '11. even though it's not huge in terms of time, it reversed that trend of close to four years on the trade deficit. i think we're going to have to wrestle with this notion of

inflation and obviously there's energy issues here. both ways, especially considering headline. back to you. >> rick, stick around. let's get more on these numbers. steve has been going through them as well. the big surprise is first with the producer prices, up 0.3%. but the jobless jump bigger than anticipated. >> i'm not going to take a lot of these numbers at face value this morning. let me start quickly with trade, which is helped a lot by the chinese lunar new year. >> because they shut down? >> they shut down. what happens is on the trade numbers a lot of the good shipped end up in the january report. that's why it ended up higher than expected, that ends up detracting from february. a really good way to handle the trade number is to takt average of the two months more or less. you may get a little back. jobless claims, a big problem

there, the easter holiday. expect it to add 10,000 to it. it's a little hotter than expected. >> because it fell earlier? the easter holiday fell earlier? >> i can't do it, becky. i might self-emulate if hi to describe the easter holidays in the month of april. the expectation it would raise it by 10,000, it was 10,000 more. it's a little weaker than expected. >> so people who have jobs to be the easter bunny in the mall -- >> something like that. >> don't self-emulate. do that in the privacy of -- no one needs to see that. >> i agree. >> the ppi number, there's a technical factor here. the seasonals expect a huge surge in gasoline prices, something like 10%. it ended up being much less.

>> because we were already higher earlier? >> you were already higher so you didn't get the surge you normally get. what i am concerned about is there is a bit of pricing pressure up the pipeline, okay. when i look at intermediate goods, look at raw goods and take out food and energy, it looks like a little bit of pricing pressure going up the pipeline. when rick says there's a little concern about inflation, i think that's right. >> i've been trying to tell you that. >> i would translate that into -- >> getting nowhere. no, you finally -- rick, finally, there you are. >> i would translate that initially, those, because those are whole sale pressure on margins more than consumer prices. you don't get the full pass along. if you can't sell stuff at the existing price, you certainly don't raise the price. you eat it in the profit margin or try to be a little more productive. i would take this initial run here as a signal, not a flair --

>> fisher says the cost push. >> he's concerned about that. there's higher labor unit costs. that's worth watching. we keep hearing the feds say they believe inflation will be subdued. i think you're going to have to get that to get a continuation of easier monetary policy. otherwise you'll start to hear the hawks start to squawk. >> they're squawking. >> rick, do you have any thoughts on that? we've been talking about what we heard from yellen and dudley overnight. yellen gave himself roerself ro either way. >> i think the fed reserve in simple terms, at least the personalities you may believe are in control, dudley, yellen, mr. bernanke, i think that they will give up the propensity to micromanage when it's forcibly taken away. how that occurs is anybody's guess down the road. they won't be able to give it up. of course they're going to leave

all their options open. you have to put that silk screen in front of of the naked emperor as long as you can. >> when you say forcefully take it away, what does that mean? >> there's going to become a tipping point where all the purchases they have, the balance sheets locked up. rate are going to move and they won't be able to stop it. the efforts to try to talk whatever a that move occurs down is going to be like how failed currency interventions incite the market. >> rick, i really want to hear what the policy idea is here -- >> i don't believe in policy. i believe in markets. don't believe in policy. i don't believe a human yub ris is smarter than aggregate penalty period. >> to forcibly change the mandate -- >> that's not what i'm saying. >> i'm asking you what you're saying. >> becky asked when i thought

the punch bowl would be taken away. it going to be when the market swamps what they're trying to do. >> hey, rick -- >> another thing one of these fed guys said is we really don't have any evidence there's a soft patch or any type of a bump of the slowdown, i'm talking about the 120 we got last friday. do you think -- steve says maybe it's easter. any reason to think maybe nou that we're back to 380, do you think that's technical, we can't really -- >> first of all, i think it underscores seasonality and adjustments in these numbers barely worked before, the world has hardly changed and they're not updated. if you look at warm weather climates like california, those warm climates didn't experience the same dynamics. that leads me to think there's a lot of warm temperature

distortion here, whether it's jobs or claims that we saw something a little more optimistic than reality will dictate as we move through time. >> jim, why don't you weigh in on the numbers we've heard and explain where the futures have been. it was crazy to see the down draft days and now a big day yesterday. what's the trend? >> what steve and rick both pointed out, there's so many moving parts of this, this basket of numbers doesn't give us any clarity. the last employment number was disappointing. the market will look at it with a little prep dags. that being said, we were do and still are due for a corrective phase in the market. we have come far fast. for the s&p to trade down to

1,330 is reasonable. it could potentially fuel the next up leg when it start to come in. longer term i think the stock market is okay. as far as the economy goes, it remains to be seen. we're still kind of in the dark on that. >> jim, one question, why do you use sinister for a move that goes down more than a correction? you sound like you have the same mission statement as the fed. you shouldn't use sinister for a down move, should you? >> no. but when the market has rallied so far for liquidity. >> but it's not sinister, it's normal. >> we have these huge vacuous -- >> when oil goes up, it's s sinister, when certain people

trade in the market, it's sinister. >> you are correct. when i have time i'll get my theasur us out and find a better word. according to the signs, ford is having some sort of big tire event. i just want to confirm a few things with fiona.

how would you describe the event? it's big. no,i mean in terms of savings how would you sum it up? big in your own words, with respect to selection, what would you say? big okay, let's talk rebates mike, they're big they're big get $100 rebate, plus the low price tire guarantee during the big tire event. so, in other words, we can agree that ford's tire event is a good size? big big the most spectacular experiences are happening here.

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massachusetts is betting big on job growth in the biophrma industry. with the state unemployment rate at its lowest level since twa20 it would seem the bet is paying off. joining us is governor deval patrick. you invested over $1 billion or signed into law $1 billion in 2008 and now the fruit of all that seems to be coming home. >> well week only get growth from investment. we've had to do the same kinds of cuts and head count and programs and reforms and the way government does business that everyone else has had to do and frankly every business and every family has had to do because the recession but we've also invested in the things that we know will grow our future, education, innovation and

infrastructure and at the center of that innovation economy here is biotech. it's been a big better oaf ten years, a commitment to a strong super cluster and establishing our preeminence in the world and securing it out into the future and it's been incredibly exciting. >> i'm curious, the role of government in job creation, always a big topic here on this show and clearly you've taken a very aggressive path but it could have been the wrong bet. >> well, you know, in some respects any government investment is a bet. you put a road where you think -- not just where the population is but where you think the population is going. but i think that, first of all, as someone who spent most of his life in the private sector and in large companies mainly, jobs are created by business, not by government, but government has to create the conditions where businesses want to do that. and there are certain things the governor must do and do well and i think that's invest in education because it's our gate

way to the future, it's the way we lift everyone and i'm proud of the fact that our students are number one in the nation as a result and invest in the other kinds of things that create those opportunities and the innovation community in massachusetts and life sciences is right in the center of that. >> let talk politics. i'm curious of your views on obamacare and whether the supreme court is ultimately going to strike it down? >> uphold it? >> or uphold it. >> i've practiced in the supreme court before so i know better than to previous district what the outcome is based on the argument. if they follow their precedent, then they will uphold the affordable care act and they ought to. it's modeled on what we're doing here in massachusetts, it been wildly -- there are more businesses offering insurance to their employees today than before health care reform went

into effect here in the commonwealth and it added all of 1% to state spending. so it's been very affordable. as i say, it's a value statement for us, the notion that health is a public good -- >> wow, sounds like romney was an unbelievable governor it sounds like, governor. >> he signed the bill and he should be proud of it. more to the point it was a broad coalition, a republican governor, a democratic united states senator, ted kennedy, a democratic legislature, the business community, organized labor, advocates, the medical community came together to invent health care reform, very much based on a private sector model with subsidies for those who can't afford it and they've stuck together to refine it as we went along. >> part of that constitutional question is that states are uniquely utility suited to do this and uniquely enabled by the constitution to do it, though. right? that's part of the -- >> well, that part is true. we are often referred to as the

laboratories of democracy. it kind of ironic, though, a successful experiment would be kept in the laboratory rather than scaled up for the whole country. we have a national crisis around health care access and cost. >> you do what you're allowed to do under the constitution also. if the power lies with the states to do it and not with the federal government, what are you supposed to do? you don't just -- >> actually, the power does lie with the federal government but of course that's the issue being debated in the supreme court right now. >> can i just ask about health care very quickly. i remember a couple of years when we were up there. at that point the massachusetts health care plan was in big trouble. in terms of cost and what had happened. the cost had ballooned, the money was not there to pay for it. where does it stand now? >> that has never been the case. that's urban legend. >> i remember reading a "new york times" article before we went there and melt you that day. >> i believe up read it, i read

it, too. but it's never been the case that health care reform has in the added more than 1.8% in spending. that has nothing to do with whether we do or don't have a universal health care plan. and on that i'm proud to say we're making stror progress as well. there were premium increases on average of 16%, 17% a couple years ago. less than 2% today because we've stepped in and we're working with the industry on a whole host of innovations. some of those tools to do this have come from the affordable care act. >> when you hear romney distance himself from the program in massachusetts or thread the needle between the state and federal issue, how do you think about that? >> well, i guess i understand it politically, if that's what it's about and seems to be what it's about, that it's not popular nationally. though -- and so he's trying to

align himself with what he thinks is the popular mood. what's interesting is that health care reform here in massachusetts polls in the 60 to 65% favorability range. the affordable care act polls at about 50/50 here in massachusetts and they're the same thing. so i think it's an extraordinary thing to distance yourself from something that has done so much good for so many people and will do the same nationally. it's already started to do so. >> i'm just looking at a "patriot ledger" article that says massachusetts as a serious problem because the state is stricken by the highest health care costs in the country. is that not true? >> that is not true. it's added 1% to state spending and the rate of increases in the premiums is the slowest right now because of steps we've taken over the last two and a half years. >> governor, thanks so much for joining us this morning. >> thank you. great to be with you.

>> that billion was the public/private partnership. the government is talking about 200 200 million. >> public private you're far. public you're not far. solyndra -- >> that was public. >> that was fully public in your mind? >> it was public. coming up, we'll take a look at stocks on the move. latest buzz from the new york stock exchange. it was happening before 2008, believe me. he paperwork. zap. it's our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. when we got married. i had three kids. and she became the full time mother of three. it was soccer, and ballet, and cheerleading, and baseball. those years were crazy. so, as we go into this next phase,

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welcome to the world leader in derivatives. welcome to superderivatives. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. melissa, jim and david join us. what are you looking at this morning, withhat do you think o these numbers? >> claims greater than expected. quarter hotter than expected. so not a good recipe in addition to europe. >> and italian bond auction, europe was coming along fine until, boom, 528, just all down -- >> auctions coming in to the forefront of investors minds. >> we need growth. so it's tepid today. >> tepid. >> good word. >> i do like that word.

>> especially as we look forward to google. going in to this one, we have to see whether or not they will deliver on the cost per clips metric and what their strategy is in terms of monetizing mobile, whether margins will at all improve as they switch over towards mobile. >> guys, thanks so much. we'll see you in just a few moments. >> when we come back, we have final thoughts from our guest host today. jim chanos. tomorrow, the first of the financials report about that we'll hear from jpmorgan chase and wells fargo before the bell. we'll bring you the reports and instant analysis p. plus we'll talk management, politics and the economy with our guest host, former zero chairman and ceo. don't miss "squawk box" starting tomorrow at 6:00 eastern. ♪ why do you whisper, green grass? ♪

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[ male announcer ] it's a network of possibilities -- helping you do what you do... even better. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." our guest host this morning has been jim chanos. and we've talked about a lot of

things. but we haven't talked about too many of the new shorts that you have out there. and you gave a presentation yesterday at jim grant's spring conference where you laid out the idea that we all know natural gas prices have been cheap. there are some huge changes in the market that come from that. that's one of the reasons you're short coal? >> we are short coal. we've been short coal for a bit. coal is the odd man out in this natural gas revolution and if anything, the natural gas revolution is for real and it is a game changer for the u.s. and for u.s. manufacturing. which is all positive. you never hear positive things in me, joe, but being the sinister kind of guy that i am, i will look at the glass half empty for purposes of our discussion. and point out that the u.s. coal industry on top of the recent epa reg changes has real economic issues because natural gas versus thermal coal, say

appalachian coal, is really, really quite a bit discounted. and the and of power plants to switch over to gas, or use gas profitably, is just increasing by the day. and i think that it is ultimately -- m -- >> so much cleaner. >> why not go long natural gas instead of short coal? >> we don't disagree with that except that the natural gas companies by and large are capitalized for much higher gas prices and i think that's the issue for -- these companies were put together, bought acreage assuming $6, $8 gas. it's $2. and so there's issues there, as well. but in terms of its impact on the u.s. economy, it's nothing short of revolutionary. >> jim, we want to thank you so much for joining us today. >> my voice held out. you took could care of me. >>