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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 18, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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>> continue to tweet your views at cnbc closing bell. >> one last look at the markets. a down day close to 13,000 for the dow jones. the nasdaq was down 11 and the s&p down five points to 1385. >> that is it for closing bell and thanks for joining us. >> see you tomorrow. i'm melissa lee. here's the top three trades. slammed on disappointing guidance and monitoring the conference call. is a short solar tray getting tired achl rare upgrades the case. are dead musicians the next big thing. tupac was brought back to life at a concert.
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let's get straight to the after hours at qualcomm. $2 a share so far on the week of guidance. other than you surprised by this? >> i was surprised by the guidance. just as john said, the reason for the sell off is they can't get enough of the chips that they need to basically sell as many as people want. they are going to fall short of revenue estimates in the coming quarters, but still this was a fabulous quarter. anyone selling apple or anything based on the lack of those chips is going to get their lunch handed to them. they got that in this name. the stock is $3 off the lows already of the after hours session and we will talk about the other bounces in the after hours that are huge. >> it was a fabulous quarter. the problem is it's not going to be fabulous. they are giving the stock set up such that it had to be a fabulous third quarter on top of a fabulous second quarter. >> had to be great.
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the june quarter is typically weak from the revenue and a licensing perspective. this guidance as john said caught people off guard, but not for the worst of reasons. snap crag on is something people are looking for and gets them more into the windows operating systems. this is a story that people are looking to buy the weakness. i think the sentiment that john had and i would echo is this is an opportunity to buy weakness. up 23% into this quarter and i don't see a major failure. >> the other point is given their exposure to apple and samsung, when you think about how product cycle driven these stories are, my stock is trading at 12-year highs and everything is going really, really well. given the lack of visibility that they have on a macro front. it makes sense not to get out
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ahead of itself. a lot of way when is the stock was down 5.5% and makes sense. >> you are saying it's a sandbag and they give conservative guidance and goes out and beats it. >> and it's cheap stock that has a great franchise and you can buy it at 13 times earnings in the earnings. the guidance is back. they have all that information. >> they have pricing power. in other words more demand for the chips than they can supply. that usually is a good thing for the seller. obviously it will be good again what john said about taiwan semiconductor, tscm. they have that 28 nanometer chip, but it will be really good for qualcomm as far as pricing. they put margins like this.
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that's a really small piece of the overall $290 that goes into an ipad or any of the rest of it. if that crept up by $1 or $2, at the end of the day for apple. >> let's get more on the quarter. brian is an analyst at deutsch bank. it's great to have you with us. can you say this is par for the course because they issue conservative guidance? >> i would note that the q2 period is always the weakest quarter when you see the roll over from the royalties and before you get that on the chip side. they are happy with the yields you get on it. the demand is outstripping what they can build and they are working to add more capacity.
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>> you believe that this is a temporary glitch in terms of ironing out the production? >> overall, i indicated they continue to gain share and they do ramp and you see better yields from that in margin improvement. we get through the year and the comps get easier and the ability will improve. >> your year end price target, what are other risks in the story? >> i think you have a competitive market and you are seeing players trying to get the shares from qualcomm. none of them on on the third generation and 28 nanometer. they have the distinct advantage playing into their favor over the next several quarters. . >> more in the tablet space and a little bit past the smart phone business, this is mitigating factor for people who want to find the upside.
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>> that is something that helps overall and again, they have the snap dragon coming into production. they have several designs on that shipping. shipping this year. that will definitely help the knicks and the company said they are up to the margins and they will give them the upside to the numbers. >> hold on. i want to bring in john who is monitoring the conference call and any developments so far? >> qualcomm is getting questions. interesting question about what the impact is of the shortage of chips. they are trying to spread supply across all customers. everyone is dealing with this in some cases customers are looking at fusion 2 chips instead. those are for the 28 nanometers they can't get. i think the questions and concerns over what the impact is
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on customers like apple. apple has more money to spend although they always seem to have the money to spend. >> and brian, just to key off of what john was talking about, where the snap dragon might go next, you are there and the motorola smart phone could use the snap dragon as well. what impact will that have in terms of challenging the production? >> apple uses that and the snap dragon won't be going to the iphone, but it will be a chip with higher asps than the current in the 4 s. that will be going into the phone and that will help them from that standpoint later this year. we expect samsung, the other big dog to be using the snap dragon. >> wing going to leave it there. thanks for your time. you want to get back on the
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conference call. the bottom line here, you are going to buy qualcomm on the weakness? >> i bought some in the after hours and i imagine i will stay long into tomorrow's trade. i have not exited yet. i like the way that the pricing power that is out there and this is one of the names in after hours. trading higher after reporting first quarter earnings and both the top and the bottom lines. this of course perhaps there was not a bigger increase for the top line. do you like the story overall? >> people are trying to make their decisions more efficient and cloud this and cloud that and cloud everything. stock is up and it's not a cheap
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stock. 67 to 70 times earnings. this is a guy that if they had given anything short of slightly exceeding estimates, they put out the recent numbers and stock had taken a dive. that's where you are running risks. a lot of people go for a lot of growth. >> i have to use that. this is that again. you like that one? this is the dobl ganger of qualcomm. it's a high multiple and any slight disaster or surprise, this stock will plummet. that cloud will turn into a rain cloud. i think you have to stick with the lower pe names and the technology space that are long-term and start being attractive. this is a high risk stock. >> watch what this does to emc. that's the majority shareholder and watch what this does to him.
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po 52-week high. if he gets sustained recoveries like we are seeing now. you pete? >> or is he your dople ganger? >> i am long until the show is over. >> i looked at it because i'm not as smart as anthony and the ghostly double. >> mirror image. it could be a jeckyl and hyde. one is save and the other you end up losing your money. >> when you think about a company like this, it runs $37 billion market cap. no longer that speculative pay for years after emc spun the thing out and owned 30%. a lot of speculation about how to monitize and what that would mean for investors. it is here to stay.
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it doesn't have that take over premium. it's growing at 19 times and expected 19 times earnings. trading at 50 times earnings. there is the risk. we know that. it's not like qualcomm that trades at low to mid-teens multiples. >> out on the options desk for us tonight, did you see unusual activity? >> it's interesting. we talk about volatility a lot. sometimes you talk about it in terms of the options and other times you need to take a look at the stocks and relative to the rest of the market. they have price to trade twice the volatility of the queues. this is trading at 12 times sales. when you see that emerge, you need to look out below. i see irony that people would start selling qualcomm so aggressively and reasonably priced. they look good versus something
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that is stickilapeculative. >> we saw the stocks that entered at multiyear high. close to multiyear highs and the earnings had to deliver and they were cracked in the story in terms of the overall view. are you seeing positioning in the queues for the cautious optimism? >> they are heavily weighted in the top five names. intel and microsoft and apple. they make up a disproportionate amount of the index. as far as hedging that we saw particular to intel's quarter, this was trading at-year highs. product transitions and the real big product cycle when is they look out on the pc side. that's two quarters out. if are this thing to be 2% on that gross market was not a big deal whatsoever in a lot of ways. it's cheap, but only growing.
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the expected growth is low single digits. >> the only thing i say about people taking profits and ibm or intel is major rotation. this is encouraging about why stock pickers are doing okay. you get to a place where they are not stretched or expensive and one of the things to watch out for is earnings in the big resource players. i am seeing more of that action. back into the resources gives you a reason to believe that you pick the market and the world is not slowing as fast as they can. >> coming up, is morgan stanley's stock worth more than what's on its price tag? it's a company behind the rez rukz of tupac. all about what could be the next big thing. much more fast straight ahead. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac
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>> welcome become to fast moan. live at the market site in times square. after hours action here with american express slightly lower on better than expected quarter. mary thompson has been listening and has the latest. mary? >> of course american express reporting seven cents ahead of expectationses. on the call as we speak. given a little bit of detail on the quarter, business was up 12% and leap year they get a benefit from that. you exclude that and it was steady and you spoke about europe and that was the focus of investors. they are interested to see what's happening there. the growth rate in europe was stable in the first quarter up about 6% on average. what you saw is greater growth in the northern european countri countries. they were up 8% too. in spain, much more moderate
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growth and growth nonetheless. up about 2%. >> thanks so much, mary thompson. ebay moving in the after hours session. trading higher and the global commerce platform spiking after reporting impressive first quarter earnings that beat expectations there and raising. big here. >> strong guidance and the stock is up nearly $3 after hours and signed up 200,000 merchants to pay pal here. their competitor to my friend. jack dorsey is the founder of twitter and runs a company called square and it's a scanner that you can plug into your iphone while pay pal is a competitor to that and the fact that ebay signed up 200,000 small businesses for that and it's a mobile payment solution like what you see at apple expect they use square and this will be interesting.
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and you get deerfield communication for payment that way. mobile payment is a big thing and ebay putting a stake in the ground. >> i totally agree. pay pal has gone from being 20% of the revenue until about 50%. that's 45% in the last five years alone. you have to compete globally. these guys, you know it's interesting and you have almost a value proposition if you believe these guys will deliver the growth in the online commerce. again, the part that they were never that exposed to. they were on the payment side of the board. i like the name. it's not expensive. pay pal will continue to grow. >> the regular commerce side will increase and the number of items sold will gain 17% as well. firing for both businesses over at ebay and we want to look at the bank earnings. earlier we asked you for your thoughts and bank of america.
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here is what you said about the stock. 32% of you said buy. 39% of you said sell. shows up 60%. the best is yet to come. the majority of you say you would lock in profits here. morgan stanley reports results before the bell and tell us why the stock is a buy also, give us his outlook for bank of america. let's bring in the analyst here. vice chairman of ariel investments. great to have you with us. you like morgan stanley and that is a stock that whenever we see trouble, morgan stanley seems to fall the most of all the shares. you see upside despite the ongoing problems? >> the bear case is well understood. it's a stock that people love to hate and people are worried about the moody's downgrade and the cost of capital increase and the fact of the matter is the stock is extremely cheap.
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they traded between one and two times and trading for about $16 and they are about $28. it's very, very cheap. they have a great position in tech investment banking and leading the facebook ipo and a great business. it's not as bad of a situation as people think. >> charles, when i interviewed managers in the hedge fund community, this seems to be the name that the hedge fund managers are shorting the most. they are setting up trades and the long and the short. can you address that and why this is the favorite short financial if you will? >> there was a theory that you always pick the next weakest name to go. first bear stearns and then lehman brothers and now the wisdom is if something bad happens, the weakest would be morgan stanley. frankly that's an old paradigm and morgan stanley is not as levered and lehman brothers
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were. they it do note have the same mortgage exposures that they have. it is a very crowded trade. >> we also saw the whole space is crowded. jpmorgan and goldman delivering better numbers on the trading side and the stock sold off. put the traders on and you fade into the numbers based upon what you have seen or have they traded along with the guys the last couple of days and now look at the true measure? >> yeah. the last couple of days they have not acted well, but this year they acted very well. these are among the best performing group in the stock market. they got cheap and we think people are still anchoring on the fact that morgan stanley was ten last october and now it's 17. on 28, there is still plenty of room to run. >> you can make the case and you are staying away from the stock
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because it's impossible to determine the value. what is unclear and the biggest wild card? >> we say it's unanalyzable. the litigation risk and the remaining for ining mortgage ri. this was the biggest player and all of their exposures and you can't figure out how you value bank of america. morgan stanley's books is much more liquid. the mark to market and bank of america is just much more illiquid and harder to value. charles from ariel investments. >> interesting that again after you nail it on the head, that old conventional wisdom that he just mentioned, it was the next 1 to go in the financial crisis. make no mistake about it. if we go into a crisis, it will be on the chopping block. the fact that it's the smallest
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makes it that much easier and remember how the ratings work. it's a lot of rumor and pulling and balances and i'm not saying that's likely to happen, but if we see a crisis similar to last summer, morgan stanley will be the first to go. >> with any recovery from the trading revenues, this is a very big thing for the guys. just like people have written notes about schwab and the rest, if we see interest rates and that spread between what they paid and what their cost of money is and where they lend it out. that is dramatically positive keeping in mind they have the citigroup and morgan stanley business. >> despite the shorts, i like the name. >> let's move on with the deal. volatility playbook here. any unusual activity or
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patterns? >> there is nothing scientific here. this chart i kind of named it and i profiled it. if you go back and look over the last year, there were these points in which they crossed over and now are actually kind of done a flip flop. people got worried when they were below 15 for a sustained period of time and there was a good chance that that could actually -- there was causality that we could get a sell off and doesn't have much to do with the vicks. that was one chart. you keep an eye on here because if you do see a convergence again, it is more likely the price action. >> coming up next, we are on the hunt for opportunities and energy for the top rated investor who is fining value in some unlikely places. stay tuned to get the top picks after the break. >> zap technology.
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>> breaking news on transcanada. they made a proposal for a new route on the pipeline in the state of nebraska. this according to the nebraska department of environmental quality. cnbc confirmed that they are submitting the new route for the keystone pipeline. we will see what happens here. the stock in the after hours session is not doing too much. we will have broader implications for the transport of oil in this country. >> all about worries. >> exactly. they moved the route to east of the original route and that avoids transporting oil.
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that's the key. >> that are pipeline is getting done. no question about that. >> we will take your word for it. >> let's get the announcement out there. >> anyway. >> looking for under the radar, offshore drilling isf th energy exploration and production. let's bring in shawn reynolds, manager of the-star rated global hard assets plan. great to see you with this. in terms of the news, has this been for you a reason to invest or not in the stock? the that a pipeline would be completed? >> it's inevitable. it's a football that will happen and it's great for the country and canada and a few can benefit from it, but more or less it was the ability and invest on the back of it. >> we have to break back at
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headquarters with breaking news. >> just a quick update on the pricing for the ipo, the luxury luggage company at $18 a share, above the stated range of 15 to $17. strong demand for luggage in the consumer sector as we are seeing a company raising 18.esta78 mil chairs. this is private equity firm and we are expecting to see them ringing the bell tomorrow. >> at the nyse. thanks so much for that update going back to shawn reynolds. you are taking a look at unconventional oil play and back in as well as the basin. which stocks do you like the best? >> the two that we really have big ways and the pioneer and sim rex. pioneer is a pure play and we have been producing for hundreds
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of years or 100, not hundreds. there is a renaissance on horizons and they have a very, very good position. sim rex is more diversified, but both of them have the ability to add significant reserves. just big quantum chunks over the next several years and that's what is attracted to us. >> the top picks, does that reinforce the story and so much attention on gas, it almost meat them that much more profitable. is that something we can continue to follow? it seems too simple. and again, how much offshore exposure do you think we should be looking for or do you think we should go for the guys that are much more conventional? >> i think there is a dual approach. unconventional oil is big and profitable. we saw that in the halliburton numbers and they are expecting the weakness in gas and the falloff, to impact them and came
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in with good north american numbers better than people expected. inside we have been running for a number of years. that has been at the detriment of the conventional story. a lot of people don't want to take on the risk. we think you can get free optionality and like the names there. >> how much do you think halliburton shares are given the difference? >> it puts a lot of pressure on them because they came through so well. baker hughes came outer and downgraded significantly. that reset the bar and halliburton said one of our competitors said you better come through. >> in terms of other ado assets, are you investing as opposed to the minors or explorers? >> in the mutual fund we follow it closely and the main driver.
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most of the stocks women don't invest directly. >> you have to be on free port and fantastic valuation. you can't keep copper at 380. i don't believe that, but where do you stand? >> they face a lot of internal problems. they had big strikes. they have problems. just the overall inflation that is affecting the tire industry. they have problems on cost and supply and longer term for copper. it should help out, but tomorrow may be a tough day. >> shawn reynolds from the fund. we want to check on the action trading lower near the top and the bottom line and raised guidance here. the name you have been following. >> i think it's interesting. all of these names have been-u take a look at how they have been behaving, every one has been doing the same thing going up at a 45-degree angle.
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a lot of them are at rich valuation and there is growth to justify it. that's true in young's case. 22 times forward earnings estimates. all of these spaces, you can see in this environment when people start to see any crack whether it's a qualcomm you will see selling pressure and that's why people have been looking down. >> that's what you are doing on chipotle. >> this is much richer trading at 50 times forward earnings and this is a name that has actually more often than not, it's averaged over the last eight quarters, the options markets are implying a move of about 5%. the bigger moves have been to the upside. a lot of people have been concerned. i would say in this environment if the options are giving you an opportunity to buy a little bit of protection or make a bet inexpensively, that's what you should do. i am looking to trade the april
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400 put spread that expires this week and pay 670 for the 425 puts and sell the 400 for 190. that's a debit of 1.80, 1% of where the stock is trading and gives you better than 5-1 pay out. that gives you information about the historical move. >> you can catch "options action" at friday at 5:00. we want to check in on ebay with better than expected quarter on all fronts for the commerce side and the pay pal side of the business. it is in the after hours session hitting the highs up about 8%. we continue to monitor for you. a company that brought tupac back to and revealed the biggest blockbusters in recent times. the ceo of digital domain and why the company could be the next big thing. this is $100,000.
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>> shares of f5, trading higher by 7% and interesting reversal in the after hours session.
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you can see that on the chart. down $10 at one point. >> yeah, in fact down almost $14. closed around 124. the reaction there were a bunch of people that hit the sell button too quick and that's where the big boys and girls play in the after hours. somebody shouldn't have been there or had adult supervision. they sold down at 110.56. that's a very expensive lesson. to sell out in the virtual bottom. just an hour ago. >> up 7% right now. let's move on. tupac lives in digital form. he was resurrected and along snoop dogg performed two songs. it created quite the buzz and sparked tupac simulation.
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who is behind the stunning technology and is it the next big thing? the digital domain and chairman and ceo. tell us right now. can we expect the hologram. >> there has been a lot of talk of that. that's up to the doctor. we were thrilled to be a part of the project and have been engaged in the earliest and most successful foreigns of human animation. this is a project and this is a client and it's his call. we are waiting to see as much as you are. we are thrilled to have delivered something that obviously got a lot of attention. >> this seems like a logical extension. this technology has been used in movies and founded in part by james cameron. how much would this cost? does this virtually cost nothing so that if you did put a
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hologram on tour, that would be a huge money maker. >> for really depends on the quality you want. delivering for a feature film, that is upwards of $20 million depending on how much the character will engage with the dialogue and with the camera. delivering tupac, it had everything to do with the performance. you can spend a little or a lot. we had bizarre requests that came out of this. we were asked if ronald reagan could introduce mitt romney at the convention and that would obviously probably be a lot more expensive. going out on tour, this is a one-time project for us. if dr. dre comes back for more help, we will give it to him. >> sorry nancy cheaper than ron he? that wasn't my question.
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the question i really have is the artificial intelligence. if tupac is on stage, do you have the capability to have him respond to the crowd through the hologram? >> i would really rather talk generally about what's possible in human animation. you can have and this gets into simulation, but human animation is more relevant in training soldiers. there was a large contract that the pentagon is beating around around the world. with a lie or a deception looks like. you can have a human driving a performance and it can be an elderly grandmother driving the facial performance of fundamental terrorists. it's that facial performance and that performance that can be driven through the character. it is possible to have that realtime interaction even in an interview format in
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telecommunications in military simulation. we do better quality in movies. the doctors get trained for surgery and we do better quality in military than we give our soldiers the raining for. anything is possible. we didn't -- it's not our business model to take them out on tour. we described what the customer wants. >> john, explain to us what makes the revenues from the other applications as well as this new application which is potentially game changing in terms of the entertainment industry. the ability to bring somebody back to life is compelling. in terms of the kmushl application, that could be a revenue driver for you. >> we look at the whole category. also stuff that we have done that you might have seen if you happened to be a mets fan enhancing the indian experience
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with the special venues. in a major league ballpark. if you look at the history of our company after 20 years and eight academy awards in the feature film that is only at $2.5 billion industry with a lot of participants, we are only 100 million revenues. you have the special applications whether it's a human character and concerts or what we are doing in major league ballparks and see it as a business which is at least as significants the core business that we have currently. >> we have to leave it there. i hope you come back on fast sometime soon. the digital domain media. this stock is on the smaller end of the stocks that we talk about. 246 million and that is after the pop today. 15 i should say. >> i'm a mets fan. not particularly, but if we bring tupac back to life, are we
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worrying about a reescalation? something i am concerned about right now. something i'm concerned about. >> you settle. >> calling for the east and the west coast. >> they would be more tupac. >> finally up next, we have one of the few that sees a ray of hope for the battered stocks. stay with us. are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule. the first technology of its kind...
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it's the at&t network -- securing a world of new opportunities. ♪ up next on "mad money," cramer has the exclusive look at the ceo and the federal realty as top man coming up at the top of the hour. time for the green trade. this time there is relatively good news for the stock. analyst at kantor fitzgerald upgraded and joins us now to tell us about the call. great to have you with us. the stock was down 7% and a high shortage and has that has a roll
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n how the stock trades. it was lukewarm and it's a hold at this point to see more consolidation and capacity cuts coming. how does it shape up? >> well, let's be perfectly clear. i'm not positive on the solar panel industry at all. they deserve a long road to go with negative things going on. we had a sell rating since we initiate and took every opportunity when the stock was either up or in the triple-digits to say sell it. down here in the low 20s when it's right at the price target of 2150, we are saying right now we believe that the industry and in particular they recognized the challenges in the industry and yesterday they announced they are cutting 33% of the
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capacity and 30% of the employees and they have the project. that's in the next three years. at this point it's difficult. they are doing the squandering. they can go considerably lower. we are moving to the sidelines. that's essentially our call. >> sorry there any point in which are you think the solar industry in the united states can be competitive with the likes of china. that manages to pump in more money and more money, here we are with too much capacity and subsidy that seems to be going away because there is not a political will. >> the subsidies were started much stronger in europe. they are finally weeding themselves off of the subsidies and that led to the overcapacity industries. we are actually benefiting from the fact that there is an overcapacity out there in the solar panel manufacturing.
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you can buy panels in this country and put them on your house and come close to a retail cost of electricity, particularly in california. we are benefiting from all of that. it's good for the consumer and a good thing for the generation of solar power and a bad thing for the manufacturer. >> that's the problem from an investor standpoint. always great to see you. upgrading fslr. we have the trades off your tweets. send them in.
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>> being at 62% year to date, what's the next move. >> beat earnings and revenue today, dr. jay, a dollar sell off and the stocks trading up at least to multiyear highs. five-year highs on this move. i just bought one of the beds and i love what they make. i would wait for the stock to
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pull back on this move. operating margins look strong and gross margins were down a little. people might use it as an excuse to sell. >> the greatest. >> by the way, your make up looked better than nathan's. giving you two thumbs up. send us that because you air them as you see on the show. fast money. coming up next, the first tomorrow tonight. i'm an expert on softball. and tea parties. i'll have more awkward conversations than i'm equipped for because i'm raising two girls on my own. i'll worry about the economy
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more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. massmutual is owned by our policyholders so they matter most to us. massmutual. we'll help you get there. the teacher that comes to mind for me is my high school math teacher, dr. gilmore. i mean he could teach. he was there for us, even if we needed him in college. you could call him, you had his phone number. he was just focused on making sure we were gonna be successful. he would never give up on any of us.
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>> don't forget to sign up for the salt conference in las vegas. check out the all-star lineup. the final trade. mike co. >> look to enhance the yield and sell. >> i would say take a little off of the table and then buy it tomorrow. par are it was interesting. >> i like intel and the fundamentals are catching up with the price. >> jc penny and the salt with

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