tv Street Signs CNBC April 27, 2012 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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steve, have a great weekend. >> you too. >> see you next week. that will do it for "power lunch" everybody. >> thanks for a great week, ty. have a good weekend. see you back at the ranch. we'll see you on monday. "street signs" begins right now. and welcome to "street signs." i'm brian sullivan. happy friday. the headlines say the economy is cooling and the recovery may be losing a bit of steam. but i'm going to show you a couple of data points that say things might be better than you believe. the day after the cnbc stock draft 2012 is now in the books. and today we are going to break down one of the more surprising picks, that is dell. figure out why one stock stud was left out. you have to stick around to find out which stock we are talking about. plus, a big money manager betting on a beaten up printing play. and a disaster du jour of patriot proportions. sorry, tom brady.
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the dow two weeks in a row to the upside after two weeks lower. blue chips turning positive for the month of april. and only a few points away from closing at a four-year high should we stay at these levels that is. same story on the s&p. two weeks up, two weeks down. we're watching the 1408 level for a break even april, which would give the index its fifth straight month of gains. nasdaq is actually breaking a three-week losing streak this week. the nasdaq would have to close above 1392 for a break even april though. and top 3134 intraday to eclipse the 11-year highs set at the end of last month. let's get straight down to the nyse trading floor. we have our very own bob pisani. i'm done with april. i'm bored with april already. we've just given the stats for april. so let's move forward to what's going to happen for may. there's the old adage sell in may and go away. should we really be thinking about that? >> they're thinking about it. but be careful here. that may not be so applicable this year with the fed still very much around.
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mr. bernanke clearly indicating he would be around to help if things fell apart. and number two, the real estate game is back. i've been saying all day the home builders, reits are at new heights, spring builders have not been bad, the builders themselves have been doing better. 13264, mandy. that's what we need to get. four-year highs on the dow. look at this chart. here's the big drop we saw of course with the financial crisis, there, believe it or not, is the flash crash. there's the european crisis. despite all of that last year we're still on an up trend. one other thing i'd point out to you, it has happened without the help of the financials, the big financial names this month, bank of america, jpmorgan, all have not done well at all. look at that ever since earnings. amex and travelers to the upside. >> can i ask you taking the place of financials being leader here, what do you make of the fact reits are kicking butt, you have them blazing across the front page of newspapers, bidding wars with regards to
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real estate, what does that tell you, bob? >> first off, i'm not sure real estate is back in a huge way. the home builders publicly traded are taking more market share. so it looks like the pie is expanding, but in fact the expansion is still pretty modest by historic standards. it's enough to make investors and real estate stocks certainly good. they're going to keep a low interest rates. that's a big, big help to the reits, mandy. >> understood, bob, thank you very much. >> well, bob had a nice chart, but i'm going to see his chart and raise him two charts because we've got a bit of a data duel on the street today. it has to do with gdp. first quarter output came in at just 2.2%. but many pointing out the consumer part of that number actually looked pretty good. economists seemed mixed though. maybe it's because it's not just how you look at it, but what you look at. so let's take a look at this. all right. this is gdp in dollar terms. that's key. in dollar terms going back to 2005. you can see it was a total tank during the recession. we have actually come off those
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recession lows and are above where we were in output in dollar terms going in to the downturn. some seeing this at a more positive light. but, again, that's in dollar terms. now take a look at gdp growth going back to 2005 in percentage growth terms. the rate of change. and this chart gives us a different take. you can see on the far right side of the screen here that we, yeah, couple quarters last year came up, but right now on the very far right a little bit of a rollover as the rate of growth slows. this is why some out there are seeing the number more in a negative way. so with that in mind, let us bring in rick santelli and phil lebeau on this. rick, we know that inflation over time will always raise prices so dollar values go up. but should we ignore the dollar amount and focus solely on the rate of growth in percentage terms? >> well, i like to look at all charts. i like to look at many different interpretations, but, yes.
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i think inflation in the dollar trends chart of course we're going to see these numbers pushing up and maybe looking more optimistic. the consumption number built in this reported 2.9 was very good. but investors will continue to monitor part of that consumption with finance -- sorry about the bells -- is financed by dipping into savings as the report showed. and as peter shift talked about with me today on air of a bleak, certainly not robust jobs outlook, how long can this consumption continue? and are consumers going to be able to afford it? are they going in to hock? we can't put a lot of lipstick on this one in my opinion. >> all right, phil. talk about the consumer. car sales have been strong. a car is a pretty dog on big purchase, but is this we need a car because our current car is nine years old or a real sign of consumer optimism?
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>> hard to tell. it really is, brian. what we're seeing in terms of auto sales and look at the results today from ford $2.1 billion profit in north america, best since 2000. on average they're selling their vehicles for about $28,500. people are coming into the showrooms, the profit margins have never been better here at ford in terms of north america going back to 2000. but what's driving that? definitely pent-up demand. the other aspect is consumer confidence. they are saying people are more confident and they believe that's bringing people into the showroom. but it's hard to slice what's confidence and what's pent-up demand because they have an old car. >> i wonder, phil, how much the consumer is still very sensitive to price. look at the comment ri here that came out of ford for example today saying they've got to be careful not to raise their prices too much because the consumer might not be able to digest that and also the fact their market share in the u.s. has slipped because essentially they thought maybe they would ratchet back on incentives too soon.
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>> yeah. that's a big concern. but they are adamant that they believe that the best course for them is to hold back in terms of rolling out the incentives. that will be the next thing to watch. if we see automakers ratchet up incentives, that will tell us consumer confidence is not there. at this point, most dealers will tell you they get people coming into the showroom who are not going to be able to negotiate a huge discount. that's an indication right now that people are willing to spend and they don't need those incentives to buy. >> rick, it's interesting listening to phil because he's talking about how car salesmen sell cars and largely on incentives, not only but largely, what can the government learn from the local car salesman, right? growth in the economy would solve a lot of our problems, instead we're talking about the buffett rule. how would you incentivize the entire u.s. economy? >> i think right off the git-go i would like to see a lot of those cars rolling off the
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assembly be bi-fuel cars, for example run on gas and nat gas. and at the airport put in charging stations. so when not traveling, i can park my car and six hours later my battery will be charged. they can put a natural gas pump in there and it will take four minutes and i think that these things are the way of the future to create many, many jobs and give consumers choice on what energy goes in their car. you don't want one fuel, you want a selection. gives you power and control. phil, i keep reading that the average duration of loans for autos is on the long side. there's financing issues here as well. i think a lot of people may be buying cars because their cars have worn out, but i think they're taking on debt to do so. >> it's all about the monthly payment, rick. it is all about the monthly payment. if you can get your monthly payment down in the $350 to $400 range by stretching this out to 72 months, people are doing that. that's why we're seeing growth on the high end or the long end in terms of the auto loans that
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they're taking out. >> uh-huh. okay. to both of you, fantastic debate. thank you so much. here on cnbc we've been talking all day about the 2% club. you know, stocks ripe for returns in an economy that's growing by, you know, not much more than 2%. well, let's get some more ideas now. bring in sandy lincoln, chief market strategist at bmo and aaron stein. great to have you both on the show. eric, let me start with you. so even if we're growing at, you know, 2% and change here, to what extent does it matter from the investor's point of view in the market? at the end of the day if we have weak growth out there, bernanke is going to be very much in play in investors' minds. >> i think that's right. i think when you do face an environment that does have what can clearly be termed sort of benign growth, it's not enough growth to really be considered robust. it's just enough to sort of sustain the economy, but nothing that's really driving the top
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line demand. from that perspective, i think that does concern investors. it certainly concerns us. but it also fits very nicely with the idea that, you know, when we're looking for stocks, we're looking for certainly the idea that they have a lot of ability to create demand. they have competitive advantage that can drive faster growth than that 2% you were just alluding to. i think that can be a reward for investors after a period where they've probably taken on some additional risk in their investments. >> so quickly before we get to sandy, eric, i want to follow-up. if we continue to grow, let's call it at 2.5%. be a little more optimistic than the number we got today. can the s&p still hit 1500? >> i think that -- from my perspective, i think that would be pretty tough. you've got a lot of additional things still yet to be solved. what hasn't been mentioned even if you do have a little bit of an up tick in growth is we still have a fiscal cliff to deal with coming in next year where, you know, whether it's tax rates or spending cuts or whatever, a lot
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of pressures that are going to come to bear on the s&p. and companies in general. and i think that still leads us back to a place where the companys that can survive that the best that can create some demand will really be the ones to drive better growth. >> we'll ask you what those are in just a second, but i want to bring in sandy here. let's get selective. let's get specific. where are you putting your money? which company sns. >> mandy, i think when you look at it there are three or four things you want to remember. eric touched on this. at this point the market's lifted a lot of ships, but there's going to be separation now for sure. so you want to look for companys that have really good business models, number one. they're executing well, number two. you want to look for this catalyst for change that eric was referencing. something to take them higher. the last piece is you don't want to overpay for it. for example, take a company that we like called sonic auto. this is a company that sounds very pedestrian. ties right into the piece you were talking about with phil and rick. this is a company that's a car dealership. they've got dealerships mostly on the west coast, southwest,
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southeast. got very solid -- not only sell new cars, used cars, they have maintenance and service, insurance and finance. growing profits in that the high single digit low double digit nice sales growth as well, very good business model, that's the company. and you ask yourself what do i pay for that? and a company like sonic paying 11 or 12 times earnings, a relatively cheap model and a backdrop of a consumer interested in not only getting a new car or an aged one but importantly looking for better fuel economy. that's another piece of this. that's the kind of name you like in this kind of environment. you have to be selective in here, mandy. >> quickly, sandy, that's basically a retail stock. a car pretty dog on retail purchase. retailers in large part indexes hitting all-time highs today. are you still a believer in the consumer discretionary stocks ex-sonic auto? >> well, i think so. but, again, as i said before, brian, i think you've got to be very careful.
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there are some retailers for sure that are probably on the high end of executing a really good business model. and then you've got others that are not unfortunately. there's discrimination going on in the marketplace right now. you've got to pay attention to that not only across sectors, industry groups, but literally down to the looking at stock by stock and the valuation and prospects are for that company. >> sandy and eric, thanks for joining us. enjoy your friday. we've got breaking news at the news desk. >> the fed's point man on regulation will be meeting with top executives at banks next wednesday. the focus of this meeting is going to be on the stress tests. you might recall a number of the banks had questions about how the fed assessed their loan portfolios during the stress tests and they were concerned about a lack of communications. drill lo in a recent speech said this was something he wanted to bridge the gap with. they will be meeting on wednesday. that's may 2nd. no word yet as to who will be
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attending that meeting. back to you. >> thank you very much. >> mary, thank you. coming up next, on "street signs," debating dell. it was the second pick in yesterday's stock draft. but is dell a big dud or a big stud? we're going to back up the bold call after the break. >> and then later asia calling. how samsung is taking a big bite out of apple's mobile mite. "street signs" back in two. two. how did the nba become the hottest league on the planet? by building on the cisco intelligent network they're able to serve up live video, and instant replays, creating fans from berlin to beijing. what can we help you build? nice shot kid. the nba around the world built by the only company that could. cisco.
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>> i'm going very offensive here. looking at the charts there were some nice offensive plays. i'm going with dell. it's trading in an ascending triangle over the next three to six months. i do expect the markets to correct down. but by super bowl next year i believe dell will trade up between 22 to 26 on that pattern. >> that was abigail doolittle during our first annual cnbc stock draft pick. her stock pick night not be that big of a shocker as rimm going second. but let's ask bob. he has a neutral rating on the stock. and senior technology analyst at maxim group with a buy rating. good to see you, rob. go to the more bullish of you two, ashock first. could we see a boom in dell this year? if so, why? >> i think the revenue growth near-term will remain challenged. but the company can deliver on
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the earnings growth this year over last year. longer term transition to enterprise century company we think will play out enterprise represents about half the company's profit will eventually, you know, grow to about 40% of top line and potentially generate earnings power up to $3 over the forecast horizon. >> rob, you think cast is the bear, but it's not so much you're bearish, you have a neutral rating after all, just maybe you think there are better opportunities out there, right? >> right. i don't think dell's bad. i don't see a lot of reason why it has to go up any time soon. the stock really hasn't gone anywhere for years in some ways. and i think the risk level's actually relatively high. i mean, i think what he said and is true they are growing the enterprise business and making some acquisitions chrks i think is the right strategy, but look at pcs still more half their revenue, that business is eroding. they're buying companies to try and back fill the erosion in
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their core pc business. to me the worry is they end up kind of still treading water. >> i mean, you say they've been very akwistive. aren't they going the higher margin areas? to what extend do we know this is an area dell can exceed at? >> the intent is to get into higher margin, higher value added business, pcs usually are higher valued. but what we haven't seen is dell can prove itself and being successful in these businesses. they have the cash flow to go buy them. and they're giving it a shot. they've already built up a lot in storage for example. but, you know, we have to see if they can actually execute and compete with some really good companies in areas like networking and storage where they now have something, but we haven't seen them actually compete yet. >> you know, ashok, to mandy's point, dig into that more.
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a lot of people can buy a sports car, doesn't make them a race car driver. are they going to be able to integrate these companies into the dell way and perform and get the higher margins thus higher earnings that seem to be a part at least the basis on your thesis of dell. >> absolutely. i think the important point rob made is it has to grow core pc business to generate any top line growth. i think that's a tough job long-term. i think the company is repositioning from becoming a retailer to becoming an owner of ip and that's why they want to pursue these acquisitions so integrate within the product portfolio and then leverage the distribution channel. but as rob pointed out, i think execution remains key. >> quickly, i know you weren't in our stocks draft. we had a bunch of names out there, microsoft and others, would you have picked dell so high? would you have picked them second? >> not quite. i think there are better plays out there, but i think for a patient investor, i think the
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long-term payoff could be there. but as rob pointed out, i think near-term the stock has been trading -- >> sorry, what would be a better play in this space? ashok. >> i like in the pc market i think we like intel, right. given its heavy service exposure, we think the product cycle, they own the ip and i think that's a better pc play in the near-term. >> gentlemen, have great weekends. thanks very much. >> thank you very much. >> all right. on deck, 14 stocks did not get picked in yesterday's draft. there was one name that left all of us on the "street signs" team a little shocked it did not get picked. we're going to tell you who it is and get the bull case coming sglup and just as the space shuttle enterprise touches down for a final time, a new space race is taking off. we're going to tell you who is going to infinity and beyond when "street signs" returns. stay with us.
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it could be a takeover possible takeover candidate. so up 12%, mandy. >> okay. look at this. what a sight. the space shuttle enterprise flying over new york earlier today. the shuttle piggy backed on a boeing 747 making its way down the hudson river before landing at jfk where it will eventually be taken to its new home aboard the uss intrepid, brian, amazing sight. >> really, you know, one of those scenes you're proud to be an american. the 747 and the shuttle. as nasa retires its shuttle fleet, a new space race is heating up among private investors. and jane wells, perhaps this time the sky is not the limit. >> no. not if you have enough money in the right business plan. elon musk put up $100 million of his own fortune and got investors to put up another $100 million. now he's getting help with down payments from future customers like nasa adding hundreds of millions more.
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nasa, which means us are helping subsidize a private space company, which sounds crazy, but it's cheaper than nasa owning and operating everything. that's the argument a big test of spacex will come at mission control as it launches a rocket and space capsule from cape canaveral to carry supplies to the international space station. why has musk done better than other private investors so far? and why does he insist on spacex making all of his components apple? >> i'm primarily an engineer. i also have the financial side of things. so normally you have somebody who's a chief engineer and ceo and kind of different. my case it's the same. i can simplify the decision making. and i don't need to -- i only need to convince myself whether the decision is correct. i do think it's important to -- well, hesitate to use the word control, but to really ensure
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that the whole system is done right. >> why don't you want to say the word control? >> i don't want to sound like a control freak. >> the company may go public late in 2013. one measures value at $1.3 million. musk says that's probably about right. we have more on cnbc.com. we'll have chunks of the tape later. guys, i asked him why is he doing better than blue origin, the private space venture owned by jeff bezos, "i think if jeff bezos were to spend more time on origin, it would make more progress. >> touche. glad to use twitter to keep us updated on what's out there. thank you very much, jane. the nation's biggest mall builder totally killing it last quarter. how can you cash-in on the mall madness? >> and printing profits. a small cap money man is making a big bet on printing. that's right. we're going to be naming names with "street signs" returns. hey, did you ever finish last month's invoices?
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happy friday everybody. welcome back to "street signs." we've only got 90 minutes left in the trading week, so let's get straight to our street talk. let's not waste any time. stocks are grinding hard today. markets are still on track to post their fourth day of gains. the dow is just a bit earlier touching its 2012 closing high close above 13,264. that would be a four-year high. as for the biggest winners on the dow right now, we've got american expres up by over 2%, costco as well, which by the way it's also getting into the home loan business. you can put in a big bag of wings and big mayonnaise and a home loan into your cart. as for the nasdaq 100, the winners there are expedia up by 25%. look at it go. amazon.com on the back of its latest earnings up by just over 15. as for what's happening with oil prices, well, kind of bouncing around right now on either side of the flat line today. pairing early morning losses after the gdp numbers were released worse than expected.
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the final trades of the week happening right now. sharon epperson is at the nymex. hey, sharon. >> hey, mandy. oil prices definitely gaining momentum going into the close today. overnight oil was below $104 a barrel. and as traders then got the gdp data this morning, they were deciphering a miss on the headline number, but the fact remains that was largely due to government spending, not transportation spending, other types of spending and personal consumption was actually pretty strong. so we did see prices pick up a bit. we are still though in this 100 to $105 range. we're looking at gains in the gasoline market. that's something to watch into the weekend. natural gas has really seen a pop this week. and the june contract up about 20 cents from where it was last friday. back to you. >> okay, sharon, thank you so much. well, samsung of korea out with blockbuster earnings today. the company also set to release its newest smartphone next week. our very own jon fortt is here with more on the samsung story and whether or not apple should maybe be looking over it
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shoulder, jon. >> yeah, mandy. more like glancing to its side. samsung's a giant. here's how it compares to hp. a third more revenue and triple the profit. and the reason why it wins the profit game, phones. let's take a look at samsung and two other big names in phones, nokia and apple. in q-1 samsung took the title of biggest phone maker awa from nokia. samsung outshipped nokia by more than 10 million units. both of them outshipped apple. but apple charges more and profits more on every phone as we see here. nokia big loss of $1.5 billion. samsung, thriving smartphone business its phones led by smartphones contributed 73% of samsung's operating profit in the quarter. apple, though, its profit more than twice samsung's. >> wow. thanks very much for that, jon. i think it's really interesting this morning when s&p decided to downgrade nokia and gave it a negative outlook, i tweeted it out and i got so many people replying saying hello this is so
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late to the party. this should have been a long time ago. >> well, nokia until recently had been the worldwide leader in smartphones for 14 years nokia's held the title as the number one smartphone seller in the world. hard to believe, but they took that title from motorola all the way back in 1998. now you've got samsung. do we read this as a samsung is great story? or do we read it as, okay, apple over here, but in the android world, samsung is just eating nokia and everybody else's lunch. >> it's not just the android world. it's interesting. when nokia took the title from motorola, it was because motorola missed the boat on 3g. that whole expansion in data, motorola forgot. now, nokia is losing this battle because they missed the smartphone thing. samsung is taking that over. but samsung's got a lot more than just smartphones. i mean, you notice that more than 90 million units, most of those are actually not smartphones. so it's a manufacturing prowess
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that they have. now we have to see if they can catch up to apple in profits. >> is this an accurate statement, the galaxy tab and kindle fire are the only real competition, if you even want to call it that, to the ipad? there are other tablets out there. i've never seen one, but i've seen them on the internet. >> there's the motorola zoom. you might see that now and then. they're not even in competition for the ipad right now. in the u.s. the ipad outshipped the kindle fire 10 to one. i shouldn't say outshipped, its got more presence 10-to-1 in the u.s. >> i think we also forget apple and samsung aren't always rivals, right? isn't apple samsung's biggest customer of components? >> yeah. samsung is the biggest provider of nan flash. that's the storage in all your apple devices. samsung also manufactures the custom chips apple has in all its products. they're so good at manufacturing, apple's got to go to them for certain things. >> understood. >> jon, thank you. we talk a lot here on "street
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signs" about big tech. generally it's apple, apple, apple, apple, but there are other companies out there. names that are paying dividends but fly under the radar. joining us, mark teper, founder and managing partner at strategic world partners in cleveland. you've got some smaller tech names on your radar. give us some names that don't rhyme with apple. >> thanks for having me, brian. just to start off, to put this in perspective, if you look at what we saw from the gdp number today, we're definitely in a slower growth environment right now. when you're in a slower growth environment, you want to figure out which trends you need to play that are going to be profitable trends. so what we're seeing is a lot of small business owners right now are going to be focused on getting leaner and meaner. and in doing so, they're going to be looking to maximize efficiency, minimize cost so that they can maximize their profitability. so the companies that we came up with that fit that mold and then they also fit our value investing mold would be lexmark,
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deluxe and also j2 global -- >> okay. i got to jump in on you here. lexmark and deluxe. people have tried to short this thing down to nothing for about a decade, unsuccessfully, i might say. lexmark, low margin, low margin printer ink company. defend those names, mark? >> one of the first things that -- i think one of the first rules in investing is invest in companies you're familiar with. invest in companies that you can understand. you know what they do on a daily basis. and make sure you understand the fundamentals. so for me as a business owner, when i started my business, i used all three of these companies. i used e-fax, i used e-voice. those are both from j2 global. the checks out of my checkbook came from deluxe. every new small business owner needs an all-in-one copier printer, scanner, e-mailer. >> are we going to be using
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checks in a couple years' time from now? >> maybe not. they have a lot of other ancillary businesses. that's a small component. for a small business owner trying to get started, you have to develop a web presence. deluxe can help them do that. you need promotional materials as well. >> cloud services, jcom is the third on your list. there are so many cloud companies out there, right? how do you find one that's going to work in terms of making you money? >> it's tough. we liked rack space a few years ago. we've gotten some pretty good results from that. when you look at j2 global, very solid company. you know, we're looking at companies that have a high return on capital, that have a high earnings yield, and have a high dividend yield. so j2 global happens to fit that mold. but when you really look at all of the services they offer, e-fax give small business owners the ability to receive their faxes on e-mail as opposed to picking up a fax off of the
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machine. very effective and efficient. e-voice gives a business owner the chance to act as if they have a real phone system. for $10 or $20 a month they can have a phone system with extensions. >> we have to wrap it up. i love the fact we're talking high-tech and we mentioned checks and faxes in the same -- we're watching these names. and we're watching you tepper. you're on our radar. >> thanks. thanks for having me. >> honestly every day -- >> our job is not about -- >> sign this, fax it. >> our job is not about opinion, it's about facts. >> ugh is all i have to say about that. talking about uggs, when we return, herb is not here, but we have the disaster du jour and a sunshine. and the nfl draft. the real one.
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nchs coming up on "closing bell," we're breaking down the winners and losers and what it all means for stocks going forward. plus, should investors sell in may and go away this year? we'll break down the charts in talking numbers. and jpmorgan's head of global asset allocation takes us on a tour around the world to find the best global investing opportunities. but first, more "street signs" with brian. >> with brian. >> today's disaster du jour is deckers. the stock is down -- down as much as 25% today. we'll see what it's downright now. revenue and eps missing estimates, but guidance the problem. the company sees 2012 eps to decline about 9% to 10% over previous guidance of flat.
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we did some reporting and how the shorts are going after in a big way, those shorts, mandy, have made coin on deckers especially in the last couple weeks. >> i'm sorry, who? i thought it was just the show with brian. according to scott wapner, back to the show with brian. whatever. a bit of sunshine from ariba. the sunnyvale, california up. right now the stock is up 40% plus. if you bought that stock and held it since the dallas-ft. worth-com boom, you're not a happy camper. very visual in front of you. who knew these stocks were doing so well. look at shares of simon property group. they are moving up today after blowing out earnings. simon is the nation's largest mall operator and developer. the stock's up about 20% year-to-date. by the way, also went to the gm investor corp., their quarterly
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filing, this is general motors investment corp. single biggest stock holding. shares of vf corp. also up about 20% year-to-date. the company reporting out of the park earnings on a big rise in revenues. and who knew mastercard was doing so well this year? they're up about 23%. coming up, the big business of the other draft. you know, the nfl football draft? seems kind of anticlimactic after our stock draft. >> totally. and why didn't any traders pick priceline? too expensive? we're going to debate whether priceline's run to $1,000 a share is going to stall out. that's coming up. before we head to break, here's today's return on retirement. a new study by fidelity investments has some alarming findings about the number of baby boomers who are likely to fall short of their necessary retirement income. just how many? the answer when we return.
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today's return on requirement question, according to a recent study by fidelity investments, how many baby boomers are likely to fall short of their necessary retirement income? the answer, roughly 40%. fidelity study included average amount saved, projected social security benefits, home equity and other factors to calculate the results. for more on retirement, go to retirement.cnbc.com. well, it's nike's first year with the nfl draft, and our darren rovell is here with the money chasing the top players that stand to benefit. >> start with nike. the first year for the apparel deal. last night to get some buzz they ran some ads to promote their new deal. they also put the name of the draft pick on the back of the jersey seconds after they were
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called. here's the heat press backstage you can see. and starting at midnight after the draft yesterday, jerseys started to hit retail, they began to ship. nike still hovering around all-time highs. yesterday jerse to hit retail. they began to ship. nike hovering all-time highs. the largest online sports retailer telling us they sold two times as much draft pick jerseys for day one as the retailer did in 2010. other winners, andrew luck, he's going to get 22 million in guaranteed money. it's the second year of a rookie wage scale which brought down the big bonuses. factoring inflation in here. luck will make less than eli manning made in guaranteed money eight years ago. rg, iii, went to subway and besides the eye catching blue suit, many were staring at his socks as far as sports agency
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goes, caa had a huge night repping three of the first four picks. seven in total. i'm estimating their players will combine $100 million in contracts. they are going to take $3 million in fees. the nfl, the overnight ratings are in. the second highest day ever helping that up 14% over the last year. i've got to get in calloway while i'm on the air. shares are down. where are we now? 15%? almost 15%. they have revised earnings they have been telling this positive story about golf. it's not where it was in 2010. it's not where it was in 2009 and you look at it and it just does not look great. >> all of the nfl players should change their numbers to 1%. that should be their number. >> that would be great. they all want 1% in fees.
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and after the predators coyotes -- >> you check out sports biz with darren revel. check out street vines with mandy and brian. >> seven traders locking in seven stocks yesterday during our first annual cnbc stock draft. but there were a few big names that were left on the table, including priceline.com. that stock is up 62% year to date. our next guest says he believes there is a realistic part for priceline to hit 1,000 a share. traders miss a huge opportunity. joining us is michael olson from piper jaffray. jon fortt, welcome back to the set. michael, big opportunity being missed or do you think maybe the stock is running out of gas? >> well, i think priceline definitely should have been drafted.
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the bottom line is that there is a realistic path, like you mentioned, we published to 1,000 in the next 24 months. i think the key take away here is that priceline continues to own the international market and that's where all of the growth in online travel is. >> you know, international is the growth story here, as you talked about. i don't want to say most -- i can't speak for all americans. priceline to me is still a name your own price, william shatner type story. this is the player overseas. this is the big daddy of the online travel sites. i don't think americans perceived them necessarily in that respect. >> yeah, that's exactly right. it's interesting, you think about priceline and a price your own business but in reality that's only 15% of their bookings and as a percent of profits it it's even less than that. booking.com is a huge brand for them in europe.
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most americans have never heard about it. it probably makes up half of their profit. >> timing-wise, big quarter is q3 right around thanksgiving. if they do well there, particularly international, they could get some kind of a pop. so if -- granted their p.e. is getting up near 40, but, still, if they do well, there's momentum. not picking it is almost a bet against international. >> but i tell you what, you can go to that, too. you are talks about apps. mobile is where it's at, baby. you have hotels.com, hotel tonight. you have all of these apps. can they move on the mobile side as well? >> well, i think they probably can because they've made good acquisitions there. but i think international is what it is about in this case. it's about pcs and growth in other markets, particularly in europe where other places haven't had penetration.
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that's where people are sticking over their travel habits. that's where they have an opportunity. >> brian, what do you think about the question a moment ago? >> i think the key with mobile in the online travel space is really just the inventory or the hotels that basically the online travel agents have. if they have the inventory, that's really the key. it's less about whether or not you have a good mobile app or a good user interface. customers just want to know if i go to the app, are you going to have the most available prices? >> sbt this also about the middle class and whether the middle class in some of these emerging markets continue to grow at a rate that would support this digital economy coming up behind? >> i think there's definitely some truth to that, especially international where, you know, not only is there a growth in kind of online travel bookings but it's really riding on the back of a rising tide of e-commerce growth. when we look at the growth of priceline and the potential that they have, it's partially based
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on the growth of overall international e-commerce and i think that that's not a trend that i would want to bet against either. >> would you have drafted priceline.com if you were in the war room? >> well, i report on that so it's tough. i would have drafted it before radio shack. how about that? >> that's not saying a lot, is it? thank you so much, jon fortt for joining us today. thank you, michael. >> thank you. we have a complete writeup of the cnbc stock drafts. all of the trader stock picks, all of the color commentary, the trash talk, instant analysis, read it or watch it on demand. coming up next, you will not believe what women are doing so they can wear these shoes more comfortably, if that's even possible. >> why does it have to be women? why can't i wear that shoe? >> i know you like shoes, brian. >> 14 double wide? >> i don't think so.
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