tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 30, 2012 4:00am-6:00am EDT
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headlines are from around the globe, spain falls back into recession, gdp contracts 0.3% in the first quarter, slightly better than expected. but s&p takes negative being a on another 16 spanish banks. international aid agency warns the world is facing a jobs crisis, the number of unemployed people will rise to 202 million this year. >> and in the u.s., friday's jobs report could show another month of slow growth as the warm winter may have pushed companies
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to finish all the hiring earlier than expected. beijing moving to curb extravagant share offerings that end up falling flat and hopes new rules will restore investor confidence. welcome to "worldwide exchange." coming up today, we head to the strong hold of france's far right voters to find out if nicolas sarkozy's latest employs will pay off in sunday's elections. and we'll speak to an expert who says the beer maker is setting the tone at 11:40 cet. and how do you occupy yourself on the way in to work or on a flight? about if you're addicted to angry birds, stay tuned to an exclusive interview. that's at 11:20 cet.
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ross, do you play angry birds? >> i think it was about -- when i got my ipad, i think it was about the first app that went on it. that of course now belongs to the children. but it was not a bad -- kind of addictive for a while for me. you play ninja fruit or something. >> fruit ninja. >> explain that to me later. spain falls back into recession. gdp contracting 0.3% in the first three months of the year. not great, if anything on the up side, looking for small positives. it was slightly better than the bank of spain's estimate. they were looking for a contraction of 4%. beccy is in madrid. your assessment there. >> the front pages of the spanish newspapers today are all about the anti-austerity
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protests yesterday and i think concerns about austerity and the impact that's having on the spanish economy will only be fueled by the con nation that spain is in a recession. so not a ringing endorsement. today the knock down effect is s&p taking negative action on 16 of the spanish banks. so that should be expected i guess because once a it are aings agency downgrades the sovereign, that does have an impact on the institutions that the domiciled in that country. very unusual for a ratings agency to have the institutions rated certainly more than a notch above the sovereign. so some of these things are already priced in, which is why we're not seeing a big impact on the equity markets. but a big part of this is also to do with the bond markets, 00. we've been keeping a very close
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eye on spain's yield on the ten year government debt which has been flirting with that 6% level. if you cast your minds back the three year ltros it did help to bring the ten year a little bit more under control, but we're around the 5.9% level right now. 6% is an important psychological level. last year we pushed briefly above that 6% level just coming back underneath that today. in the case of spain when we look at how spain sits in the whole eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the eurozone crisis in general, it was the decade long property boom which brought trouble to spain when that burst back in 2008. concern is now there's loads of toxic real estate assets on banks books that haven't been fully realized yet and when that comes to pass, that that could cause more problems which has prompted talk of the possibility of a bad bank being formed for spain. who would fund that, what does
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that mean for potential next leg down for the spanish economy. >> absolutely. thanks for now. we'll catch you a little later. joining you us global economist at citigroup and steven isaacs also with us the rest of the hour. give us your assessment of where spain goes from here, whether they can -- talking about segregating bank assets out, but not a bad bank wow one wonders whether they have the money to support further the banking sector. >> yes. well, the gdp ratings that just came out were a little bit better than expected as minus 0.3%, but the problem is the austerity measures are really only starting to hit the budget that was announced last month implied that we will see a lot of austerity over the course of the second half of this year, then even more in 201. so the next xwchlt dp ratings are likely to be even worse than the ones we saw on friday and
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released this morning again. but the big question right now is what will the spanish government do with the banks. . as you implied, the biggest individual concern is where will the money come from. so whether within the bad bank or within the banks itself is of secondary concern. i think the bigger issue is where will that money be found and will it have to come from european credit, will it be coming from the bank credit themselves or will the government itself put in a lot of its own money putting its own solvency at risk in the process. >> we get to the stage when you get risk of is you ordinary nation. we just got this other data out, monthly net purchases of government debt by spanish banks, 20 billion euros in march. net purchase government debt by italian banks, 27 billion euros. how concerned are you that what we've done has actually made them an even more leveraged play on the underlying sovereign
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risk? >> they are so closely intertwined that one really can't stand without the other. so this has been going on for a few months now ever sense the first ltro and we're very likely to see a continuation of that. so we see a lot of the domestic risks being put back with domestic investors and quite frankly, there's very little alternatives. really only two sources of demand. one are domestic investors being lent on pie the government and regulator, and the other are official creditors if you want. so the likes of the esfs, ecb and soon enough the esm. and as we all know, it's becoming more and more controversial for that official money to be put in. so right now we really see very little alternative but for that domestic buying to continue. and the big question is for how long can it contain. that is, how much more ability do domestic banks have to
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continue to buy government spanish bonds. >> for all the news out on friday, for the news out of the weekend and this morning, risk appetite actually was okay. that can't last, can it, in this environment? >> i just want to pick up on the comment about spanish banks being the main buyers of spanish debt, likewise italian banks. sure that's as positive, that's just the ltro effect. they're borrowing at 1% from the ecb and then buying spanish bonds at 5.5%. i think it's a deliberate policy to help with the long term equalization of hose banks. >> in the profitable if they bought in february or march. >> if you you got three year funding and you hold it to maturity.
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>> the one main fact there -- as i say, risk appetite was fairly okay friday and today, not a huge sort of market reaction to this news. does that change? >> as you said, i think a lot of what you you call news was already priced in. the bank downgrades, the gdp release, so a lot of bad news has been digested already. but clearly there's still a lot of further down side risk on the gdp side. we still didn't really know what's going to happen with the banks. and a lot will depend on decisions being taken at the european level. so i certainly would expect hesitation by investors and a lot of concern to continue. >> this is christine here in asia. as an outside person watching this whole scenario unfold in the euros, a lot of talk has been whether they will try to get rid of distress assets.
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what's your sense of that? >> well, the big question is price. so of course there are any number of ways for spanish banks to shed these troubled assets. but so far there's been great reluctance by the banks to shed them at a price that really reflects that unlying value. so it remains to be seen how forceful the spanish government will be to truly get rid of will this problem, to make the banks realize to enoccur losses in a way that will restore the banks to solvency and therefore restore confidence by investors that they can move on, that they can continue to work on bringing the spanish economy back to sustainable situation. so i do expect the next few weeks to bring some news of how the government intends to deal with the banking sector problem. >> okay. thanks for that. have a good week. plenty more to come from steven.
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meanwhile let's bring you up to speed with investment action. christine. >> investment action here in in asia, markets mostly higher. weak gdp data on friday opening the door perhaps the fed might be open to more stimulus. but trading was of course lacklust lackluster. volumes pretty much thin. this is how the picture is looking for the rest of the quit i markets that are owe. hang seng with no cues from shanghai. earnings weighing on sentiment. kospi up 0 abou.3% today. pretty good session for the kospi. australian market 0.8% higher.
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we had australian rising, miners rising. but the up side was break much capped. a lot of talk that we could get a 25, 50 basis point, but some sort of a rate cut from the central bank there. and the sensex raid to go the up side 0.6% over in india. so overall, pretty good session here in asia for a monday. >> in europe, we're weighted to the down side. just hit the session low. advances being outpaceded by decliners around the ratio of 6:3 at the moment. a little bit less than that. as far as the ftse 100 is concerned, pretty flat on the day. down a quarter of a percent now. and we're down six points on the month. xetra dax up 8 points at the moment. mib down 7.5% for the month.
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flat today. the cac down 5%. so there you can see they're sort of outperformers on the down side, as well. we keep our eyes on the bond markets. bund yields this morning just below the 1.7% mark. spain capped at the moment below 6%. italy just coming back from the high levels that we reached on friday, we keep our eyes on treasury. slightly disappointing gdp number out on friday has kept t whiff of qe in the air. sterling holding on to gains against the dollar. aussie dollar 1.0440. even the aussies get something strength. and dollar-yen is also down to 80.13, two month lows for the dollar against the yen. euro-dollar, still in those very tight ranges between 1.0 and 1.33.
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this one week's time, a new fresh president will be ushered into office as the latest poll shows it will be hollande. the president intensified his campaigning over the weekend tackling the topics of immigration and border control. >> translator: the choice that you'll have to make on the 6th of may is historic. france cannot make any mistake. your voice will count even more than you imagine. i have to ask you to make in choice not because of your political allegiance, not because of what you thought in the past. but i'm asking you to choose after asking yourself one question. where do you want france on go, what kind of france do you want for your children, what value do you want for your country, where is the general interest and what decisions will we have to make. >> in paris, francois hollande
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held a rally and pledged a government funded jobs program and higher taxes on the risk. >> translator: for months the people of europe has been watching france and seen how the campaign has taken a certain direction. i feel the positions even the ones of conservative governments are evolving. very well, receipt them wait for us because we are coming. we will be there. >> if there is going to be a swing factor, it may be down to those supporters of the far right. stefane joins us from the french town that is basically held by the national front of marine la pen. do we know where the votes might go from the far right? >> that's the whole question and why we moved very close to the
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german border. in this city he got 35% of votes in in the first run of the election and it's typically the like of voters that sarkozy would like to convince for the second round of this election. in the last few days, sarkozy sent a strong message with the campaign focused on immigration and security, the two things honored, the top priority for the french people that they're the main concern for the voters of the extreme right. is it the right strategy, is it acceptable to win an election with the support of the extreme right. if you look at the numbers, it's not really bearing prut. tomorrow he will give an official recommendation for the second round, but unlikely to endorse any of the two
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candidates. what she'll say is a call for a blank vote the for the the second round even if it's no secret that she would like sarkozy to be defeated on sunday. in the meantime, sarkozy is reducing the gap with hollande. fran a would get 53% of votes, sarkozy would get 47%. it's the smallest gap since the beginning of the campaign. >> the only poll take matters is the one next weekend. stefane, thanks very much. steven, let's just assume for the moment that the current polls, with did he have presidented hollande this time next week wherein investors react positively on that.
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>> it's a very complicated picture. and certainly there may be a little short nervousness in the bond market. the people of europe are watching us, that's what he said in that clip. and the nice comment over the weekend is we're not any ordinary country in europe. this this is france. -- sorry, germany angela merkel, what water saying has to be taken very seriously. and he's claiming to speak for europe, as well. and what he's saying is this fiscal austerity pact has to be rewritten. now, that's messy, no doubt there will be a few bumps in the negotiations phase, and i'm more of a belief that it will be done behind closed doors, but i have a feeling that it's actually going to happen, that there will be some sort of watering down or some sort of deal on the
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monetary side. i think they'll cut rates. >> krag gi has already come out with this idea of this growth compact. you can see this will french latin bloc emerging with a lot of backing. what does that does in terms of german politics. >> germans don't like it, but you what will they be doing. writing letters and leaking them explaining his embarrassment about germany's view with this whole policy of ltros. but at the end of the day, what will the germans actually come if the french side with the latins as you said, that's a very significant impact and i find it hard to believe that the germans would be able to resist. more easing one way or the other
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is coming. >> steven thinks the ecb will cut this thursday. i think that puts you in the minority. >> it does. >> we'll come back to him, christine. >> interesting to know that. over in china, where the security regulator is stepping up its scrutiny of ibos, after too many expensive offerings have fallen flat. trace sey chang has more. >> these new adjustments are aimed at making the newly priced shares better reflect these companies fundamentals. if a company prices shares with valuation at 25% higher than the average level of its peers, then the regulator will ask the insurer for more information on its pricing and projects. and the new rules will also make more shares available to institutional investors. under the new rule, no less than 50% of new shares will be sold to institutions compared to 20%
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previously. it's expect stod stared to star number of ipos and investors are likely to view the new regulation as a negative because the new guidelines are focused on technical adjustments then a whole scale reform. >> steven, what do you make of that? this new ibo pricing. does this this somehow -- will it somehow make the ipos a little bit more at track it difference for foreign investors as a result? >> i think what a what what international investors will be more concerned about is the figures that go into the ip chlt ons. to me that's the issue for international invest ors. i'm not sure they're going to follow the money shy of your argument.
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>> to what extent do you think this crackdown -- there seems to be all these elements at play. what do you make of that and how are foreign investors looking at this. >> it is a very serious issue and it's interesting that to me this very public debate within the chinese communist party does show how serious they are about the economy. it goes back many years how strong growth has been over a long period of time. but now there are some very serious concerns and to some extent they spilled over into the political process. can the chinese success story condition without political reform. and i have a feeling that there is some positive signs coming out, that there will be some slight changes and that's good
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the globe, spain falls back into recession, gdp contracts by 0.3%. slightly better than expected. >> china and the u.s. gear up for a tense week of did i proceed massey. the incident comes just days ahead of high level talks in beijing. >> in the u.s., friday's jobs report could show another month of slow growth as the warm winter may have pushed companies to to finish all their hiring earlier than expected. report found in britain, five lenders capped more than 90% of loans to small and medium
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enterprises. so businesses are now sourcing out new areas of funding. our next guest launched a retail bond to get cash flow moving. we've seen some awful bank lending figures to the uk economy. sharp dropoffs, record dropoffs in march. others have tried this retail bond idea. why are you going down this route? >> as you said, we've got a brand that people hope any know about. and we have a fantastic customer base and membership base. and we thought it would be a wonderful way of sharing in hopefully the future success by offering our customers and public a chance to invest. >> a minimum of 1,000 pound investment and you're offering what? >> a four year term.
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you can a 7.5% back in pace paid semiannually or we will pay you 9 about.5% back in smith royalty money, which you can put toward holiday. so, yeah, you can -- >> you can do a mix? >> you you can't mix. one or the other. but we're encouraging people to go on holiday with us. >> did you try to raise money, and what will you -- did you you think about bank financing or equity financing? why debt financing direct to the public? >> banks are tough at the moment as you know and we've had a number of private equity companies out this, we're very interested ebb veing in us, as well, but it felt more us to go to our members and raise the money through them. just felt like a good win/win situation and we always like to do things slightly differently. >> what sort of response are you hoping to get? >> well, we're raising hopefully up to 5 million pounds. but sadly i have no idea how much we'll get. it's crystal ball stuff at the
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moment. but we're hopeful we'll reach the target. >> a lot of people might want to ask what's the down side in your business, what would you tell them? >> as with every business, there's always challenges. we've been a fast growing company for the last five, six years. we hope that the bond money will help even further. we remain optimistic. >> if you're an investor, you look at 7.5% and you go that's kind of attractive. if you go bust, you lose all your money. >> i'd like to ask what was the attraction the coupon or the four years. from a company point of view. >> both is attractive for us. it's good that people commit for a healthy time period and i think that the fixed rate we're offering is also i hope appealing to people. so for us, it's the right price
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at the moment. >> what are you going to do with the money exactly and where will you spend -- >> mr. and mrs. smith has been the first company and we're about to launch a new company at the end of the year called smith and taem which is all about family bookings. whereas mr. and mrs. smith has all been about romantic getaways for two. and we'll invest more in the technology of the company because we're very much an internet based company. >> about if you sold the company at some point, that would stay -- that would be part of the deal. >> absolutely. and also to give you a little bit more comfort, the bond holders rank above shareholders, as well. >> i expect this is the beginning of a trend. >> what sort of regulatory
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approval did you get? >> there is an fsa company that we have to go through, comply with. so, yeah, there are rules and regulations. you can't just set it up in the back of your shed, that's for sure. >> thanks for that. here in asia, markets mostly higher. weak gdp i take it take from the u.s. onfully fueling hopes that ib matt fed will be open to more stimulus. that's fueling some of the up side in this particular market. also not to mention earnings continue to be focused, but trading was kind of lackluster. volume pretty much thin. hang seng with no cues coming from china. banks which reported on friday strong earnings growth there. helped it to propel the shares will this particular market. taiwan weighted index up 0.3%, apple supply posted earnings well below market expectations.
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the kospi ignoring the fall in industrial output data to move higher 0.3%. elsewhere, the second board flat. australian market 0.8%. the miners up on strong copper metal prices, but the up side was capped by concerns about the slowing domestic economy. a lot of people are talking about a rate cut. sensex trading to the up side 0.4%. so overall, pretty much the up side, but volume pretty thin. >> 3:2 right now on the stoxx 600. just bounced off the session low. xetra dax up 11, ibex not doing too bad. risk appetite not impacted by all the news over the weekend. spanish bond yields interestingly enough haven't moved a whole lot. they are still below the 6%
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level. yields got to slightly lower this morning. italians also down. the dollar sk impacted by the whiff of qe. in fact sterling got over 1.63. even the yen is firmer, two month lows against the dollar. euro-dollar still firmly in the ranges. christine. >> south korea's government is hoping the third time is a charm as it attends yet again to privatize worry finance. and this time foreign bids are allowed. more from seoul. >> the south korean government seems always more confident that it will be able to off load at least part of its 57% stake or $5.3 billion worth of shares.
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the government is waving the immediate forbidders to submit a letter of intent and instead it has set july 27th for a deadline for interesting parties to submit their initial offers. final bids will have to be submitted possibly around october and the south korean government aims to close the deal when the presidential election takes place. in-with her bidder will have to buy 30% at a price tag of around $2.6 billion. south korea regulator promises that the government won't discriminate against foreign buyer, however analysts say the problem isn't the openness of the process but the fickle minded public. if you call loan or r oig star faced huge criticism when it tried to sell its sake in korean exchange bank and only succeeded after three attempts. so due diligence will involve more than just looking at books. >> thank you very much for that.
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well, the china/u.s. strategic and economic dialogue is scheduled to take place in beijing later this week, but recent developments in a new human rights case may be giving both sides a diplomatic workout ahead of time. could i sneeze dissident has taken rev funl in the u.s. embassy in beijing after escaping six years of house arrest last week. the white house has not yet confirmed these reports.ant act abusers of china's one child policy. before those beijing talks, b m barack obama is meeting with yoda in washington today. trade relations expected to dominate the discussion. let's talk more with debra els.s
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trade supposed to be top f of t agen agenda. >> the white house originally expected him to take the pledge to join the transpacific partnership talks. but i think at this point the white house is expecting that he will not take that pledge, that instead they're expecting that they will discuss the transpacific partnership talks, but that japan is in no position to be able to commit to joining, officially joining, and so they played down the expectations what have will come out of this summit and in fact you can see that the white house is almost buried the talks all together because i don't think they expect the kind of breakthroughses that her hoping for when the talks were originally announced. >> is there a reason why politically, do they not expect
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noda to stay in office for long? >> the possibility is that he'll lose his position as prime minister by as early as this summer, so they don't want to have their reputation staked to his as early as may when he might be out of office within a month or two. >> what are the potential sticking points at a time when china is growing its economic clout? >> the same problems that have dogged the relations for a long period of time. insurance issues, beef, autos, the same kinds of things that have been a problem in the u.s./japan relations for 20 years at least. >> so how does this change the whole picture now that china is growing up some do you see the u.s. changing its position slightly a little bit? >> the united states was hoping japan would join the transpacific partnership talks and that japan would be an active partner, but i think the challenge is that politically it's difficult because it would have to make serious concessions
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especially on agriculture and so far the prime minister himself is not strong enough to push those changes through the domestic economy inside of japan. why push it in washington if you can't get it through tokyo. it leaves relations also fraught with some difficulties on the trade side at least. the hope is that the trade side will continue to at least not flare up. >> debra, what's your long term forecast for relations between chinand at yourself.
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>> there are a number of obstacles ahead. as china continues to grow, as you have the world's number one and the wrld's number two economic you powers start to go head to head, you'll find a number of obstacles. this there are a number of irritants between the two powers, so you'll find increasing did disagreements between the two of them. they have fundamentally different perspectives about the way the world economy ought to be organized on some issues. and that's going to result in some trade friction. china is being asked to take over a leadership role on the global economy and so far they have largely resisted taking over that leadership role. the united states would like them to take over a role, at the same time the united states is reluctant to allow china to take over a leadership role in part because the u.s. frankly hates to see leadership over something that the united states has been a dominant force in for a very long period of time. >> i want to ask you a question
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about japan. some western commentators have said that finally the moment is coming when the debt will be fully monetize d. >> a number of people have been predicts significant changes in the domestic economy for a very long period of time and it hasn't happened yesterday. who knows when that moment are will strike. they thought this might be the moment in which japan finally opened up its domestic economy. and they thought that noda might be the man to do so, but he even
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found it a challenge. >> and the consumption tax will be something people are watching. >> it's been very digt. they might go through with it, but it might bring down his government. he can only fight one of these enormous battles at once. >> remind me, how many prime ministers are there in japan? >> they've had so many. hard to keep rack. >> thank you very much for your time. of course this the u.s., not the only country talking with japan. india is also holding an economic dialogue. between big asian economies have signed a free trade pact last year which aims to scrap tariffs on more than 90% of goods traded within a decade. let's get you some of the other
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big stories we're following from around the world. nab national australian bank plans to down size its money losing operation saying it's too difficult to expand its brings. the aussie lenders looking to slash funds in briton and warns write downs will hit 740 million. >> other stories here in europe, the middle east sovereign wealth funds are backing a deal to buy branches of lloyds banking group. they ended exclusive sales talks with the cooperative bank. jim o'neill reportedly been approached by becoming the next governor of the bank of england. sunday times suggest he was
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contacted several months ago about the role. king will step down in june next ye year. still to come, move over disney world, the smash hit angry birds is now breaking into the theme park business. coming up, i'll take you inside the first official angry birds theme park and ask what it means about the game makers future plans.
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sideways since the early gains until mid plarng. since then, we haven't done an awful lot. >> a pretty good performance particularly for the american market having such a fantastic first quarter. only markets that have faired poorly are the southern european markets. so there a complete bifurcation in markets. but i think that's a very minor but necessary correction. and i think markets are poised to resume their advance in the second quarter. >> you said the ecb will cut rates. that's a bold care bearing if mind the internal discussions going on. if you look at the data, the truth of the matter is that everywhere across europe, the
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economy has shown greater signs of a slowdown. so if one needs the excuse, it will be fair to say rates are much lower in the u.s. and uk, so there is room for that anomaly to be corrected. and draghi has shown himself to have this bold streak about him will, and i think he could surprise people this week. >> it would be bold. ? last month we had the ltro, so to some extent he hip been hampered by throwing too much at one time. this month, that isn't on the horizon. we've had two big slices of ltr chlt on, i think it's unlikely for that to come straight back to the party. if you wanted to send a message that he is concerned there is a big problem now, pot just in southern europe, that's the crucial point, the german economy with just about all the data in april has been pretty
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poor, i think this could be the moment. >> if your prediction is true, what would that cut do to euro rates? how much pressure could the euro come under? >> i think it's a bit neutral for the euro. as a currency, again, interestingly, most commentator strategists, et cetera, this year have been looking for a much lower euro. peer we are at 132 plus. the euro has weakened against sterling a little bit this year, but otherwise it hasn't performed too badly. i think the problem about getting too bearish on the euro as a currency is if you you do get a slightly risk positive move, in other words, a cut in interest rates, it's a bit more of a balanced trade. from a yield point of view, you would be probably selling euros but it's much more proxy for risk on risk off. so i think an interest rate cut would be largely positive for
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the euro. we're you willy fairly relaxed about it. if you sell the euro, what do you buy. do you buy the dollar. a lot of people are how lookino looking for qe-3. >> i know it's difficult, but at what euro-dollar rate -- a lot of people have been talking about this, it's been generating a lot of discussion. how weak does the euro have to be to generate growth in the eurozone? >> that's a good point. i think to some extent cutting interest rates is part of a desire by the ecb to just relieve some of the pressures and a slightly euro currency would help. for germany, 1.32 is very competitive. so i don't think the euro necessarily needs to be a lot cheaper to help the exporters. i think it's more about interest rates.
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>> david cameron says there's no gland deal to help rupert murdoch's business interests. you wi mr. cam rop eron rejected any suggestion he secured support for his party by promising to smoout the attempt to take over bsk bskyb. >> i didn't change my policies to suit this proprietor or that proprietor. it's not the way i work and i will say that under oath. sg and the wallets of britain's wealthiest have fattened in the last year. it claims the combined portfolio of britain's 1,000 richest people is swelled by more than 5%. the survey says steel making met remains the richest man in
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britain. and mobile gaming sensation angry birds has catapulted to new heights with the open of the angry birds theme park in finland. >> it's been a roller coaster ride for angry birds. but launching angry birds was to prove the company's salvation. the game has been downloaded more than 750 million times. it's not known exactly how much it's making, but one estimate put the figure at over 100 million euros by the start of 2012 with earnings boosted by a massive merchandise.
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>> we're definitely moving in a direction of becoming much more of a media company where we are centered around strong brands. >> can they afford to put all its eggs in the angry birds basket? >> there are many things that we're working on and we will be making big announcements about new products and releases as we move along. for cnbc, tom mackenzie, in finland. we'll have more from that interview at 1167 167811:cet. right now, i hope jackie isn't angry to have ended your weekend so early. good to see you. what's coming up? >> great to see you, too. well, march personal income and
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headlines from around the globe, spain falls back into recession, gdp contracts, but s&p takes negative action on 16 spanish banks. >> international labor agency warns the world is facing a jobs crisis saying the number of unemployed people will rise to 202 million this year. and here in the u.s., fridays jobs report could show another month of slow growth as the warm winter may have pushed companies to finish all their hiring earlier than expected.
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>> china and the u.s. gear up for a tense week ofdy low massey after a dissident reportedly takes shelter in the u.s. embassy. >> consumer price inflation has seized, 2.6%. consensus forecast was to be 2.5%. euro-dollar muted reaction. european bourses also barely muted in the first two hours of trade today. we've been -- ftse an outperformer really against the likes of the xetra dax, crack 40 and others, as well. maybe we won't show that.
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jackie, what about the futures? >> let's take a look at the board. can he came off of a pretty strong week and ended higher in fact on friday. right now we're looking just to be under the flat line and as we've seen before in that range it's very easy to turn around. so no snap judgments just yet. meantime stocks finished slightly higher on friday. nasdaq posting its best week if almost three months. we saw some momentum of course from encouraging earnings and better than expected consumer sentiment data, that despite the fact that we had that weak gdp report. so today it will be interesting to see about if we can continue the positive row money tumor if we'll slip back a little bit. >> and completely expected, spain is back in recession in the first quarter. austerity measures bite manage to growth. gdp contracting 0.3% for the first three months of the year. if anything, slightly ahead of the bank of spain's estimates.
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they were looking for a 0.#% contraction. this comes as well as italian banks took up a record amount of government debt in march. also had an s&p downgrade of 16 banks. beccy is made n. madrid. i wonder if it was like last week's downgrade of the country debt. probably not much here that you could up either investors with. >> exactly. the downgrade by s&p, negative action on 16 banks varied it would be very unusual for
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financial institutions in any country to be downgraded to individually be graded markedly higher than the sovereign itself. so we knew that there was going to be some kind of knock on impact from the downgrade by s&p of the sovereign to bbb plus and that indeed has come through today. so limited impact really as a result of that. gdp data still showed the second straight quarter of decline and therefore technically in recession. the previous quarter was tlat. so three quarters in quick succession where we've seen no growth. also we're seeing just it this struggle to persuade international investors that things are okay. that's reflected in the fact that the spanish holdings of sovereign bonds have increased, foreign holdings have declined and we're still seeing yields really markedly higher than
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where they were first thing after the three year ltros. back to you, jackie. robert shiller stressed that the u.s. economy is in no way immune to the troubles plaguing the eurozone. >> we're always looking over to europe as a sign of trouble ahead. and i think europe could lead the u.s. into recession. but at this point, it's looking stronger than that. >> joining us now as our guest host for the next hour is senior adviser at asset management. allison, great to have you with us. when we're looking at the economy here .if united states and getting a sense for how the markets trade, eurozone a big piece of that. when we look at the banks, what's your take on where we stand? >> longer term i still like the equity markets. i think near term we're probably in a slowdown process. we had such a strong rebound
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starting last fall. the market went straight up, almost assuming everything's back to goldie lox environment. we have issues coming out of europe which hopefully people in washington are watching. austerity budgets don't help growth. that could make the market a little move sideways or choppy. >> a lot of the comment taker out will is that in the next couple of weeks what happens with spain is really going to be crucial and that will drive these markets. right now here we've been seeing solid earnings growth, so that's been positive. and, yes, gdp was slower than expected, but we're showing some positive progression going forward. so how do you factor in that eurozone catalyst right now? >> i think people will use to lock in gains because they've made some money. concern that there will be a ripple effect as robert shiller said which it could affect the u.s. economy even though demand from europe has not been strong for a while now, but it could make people worried of the
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lehman effect. my sense is that europe has stepped up and something will be resolve there, but the market will take a wait and see attitude. in the we . >> are the markets getting too ahead of themselves? >> there's enough going on that's positive right how with corporate profits. gdp growth didn't slow hatch, so i don't think the ped immediates to do that much and balance sheet is pretty stressed right now anyway. >> allison, we'll have plenty more with you. also still to come, the international labor organization has criticize the europe's austerity drive as ill conceived. the group now predicts global unemployment will hit 202 million by the end of the year, an increase by away 6 million. according to its latest world of
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work, spending cuts and labor reforms have had devastating consequences for the jobs market. we'll be speaking to the author of that report in around 20 minutes. >> an april jobs report out on friday gets top billing over other data this week, but it's likely on show another month of tepid hiring. the consensuses forecast is for an increase of 159,000 in nonfarm payrolls versus 120,000 in march? economists have been scaling back their estimates. goldman is expecting an increase of just 125,000 jobs. now, they chalk it up to the weather.incredibly warm u.s. winter may have pushed companies to do a bulk of their hiring between november and february instead of typically later in the spring. allison, i want to get your take on some of these estimates.
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>> corporate america is very cautious in the pace of growth and reinvestment and some issueses in europe are starting to call problems. i can see corporations slowing down the pace of growth. i also think they might be worried about the presidential election and what this they can do on consumer sentiment and consumer spending which might make corporate america a little wary, as well. >> that election obviously crucial, as well in, terms of the employment number. crucial for the election and for president. so if the summer is in fact slow and we repamain at these levels what does it do for his chances? >> i think it makes it more difficult. but with what's going on in europe with all these austerity measures which seems to be the other party's stance of what we should be doing, that might take away some of the wind from the republican party. so i think it will be a very tight race. >> al ris allison, you mentioned
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europe. is it impacting investors confidence rather than an impact on the numbers themselves or on corporate earnings? >> my sense is it's affecting confidence. europe is a meaningful part of corporate profits, but we've been relying a lot lot more on other parts of the world for growth. so i don't think it will be as significant an impact on corporate profitability, but i do think the issue is that it will make companies a little worried and a little worried about the policies would he enact here because we're at a point in time where we're trying to figure out how to deal with our deficit, but i also think it will impact consumer sentiment and people being worried about a potential credit issue again. >> what would be a big game changer for you, do you think for u.investors? >> it would be wonderful if congress came back with a comprehensive plan and a long term plan about reducing deficit. the likelihood of that happening
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between now and the elections probably less than 10%. but it would be a very big game changer if we could see washington become a little more functional. >> a bit like asking for world peace, i suppose. >> yes. >> but isn't that what the election is supposed to -- isn't that why the election is supposed to get to grips with that? you don't think post election we'll be even more divided? >> i just worry with all the new abilities to spend a tremendous amount of money uncontrolled that it will become very ugly. we saw what happened with the republican primary. that got pretty nasty and ugly and now you're talking about even greater with just the two political parties. so i worry you go in to washington and wonder how we elected two extreme groups rather than groups that are more compromiseded. although i will say the american public end its to behave better sometimes in things that come out of washington. >> all right. fair enough.
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welcome back temperature. time for the global market report. you can see we're a little bit steeper in the red.almost three months we saw an encouraging earnings and better than expected consumer sentiment helping those numbers despite the fact that we have a weak gdp report. >> we're nearly 7:3. ftse 100 has been on the flat line. we were up an hour into trade and we've turned negative. xetra dax still up 11 points.
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ibex down two-thirds. no huge reaction in spanish banks. as far as bond markets are concerned, yield had dropped slightly. higher than we were, 5.87%, but below the 6% level. treasury yield as slightly lower during the session. the dollar being impacted boot smell of qe that's still potentially hangs over it post the gdp number. yen up at two month highs against the dollar. euro-dollar still pretty contained in those very tight ranges at the moment. >> that smell of qe is giving a lift to markets here about if asia. hang seng index taking cues from wall street. shares of china banks were in focus after a growth in earnings
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growth on friday. taiwan weighted index up 0.3%, this particular market moving to the up side, but apple fsupply moving to the down side. elsewhere australian market up 0.8%. concerns about the domestic economy weighing on sentiment. lots of talk in the markets about policy easing coming from the central bank tomorrow after price pressures remain pretty well contained. sensex trading to the up side. so although the markets high, volumes are thin. that's it for me. i'll be back soon with the news -- i'll be back tomorrow with the news moving markets in asia. >> have a great evening. and now in one week's time, a new french president are will be ushered into office.
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francois hollae hollande hangin his lead. far right voters base is a french town, strong hold of the far right front national led by marine le pen and that's where stefane joins us now. any indications of where these far right voters this place their votes next week if indeed they get involved in the election? >> most of them will vote for sarkozy, but what percentage is the question. five years ago they were the king makers. this time it's about the extreme right. this very small city close to the belgium border, the kind of voters that sarkozy would like to convince for the second round.
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over the last few days, his campaign was very much focused on immigration and security which are key topics for the extreme right voters. but it's not really bearing prut. if you look at the numbers, 54% of the extreme right voters are ready to support sarkozy for the second round of the elect. that's to compare with 60% a week ago. so it looks like sarkozy is not really convincing the extreme right voters. probably most of them are waiting for the official announcement tomorrow from le pen about recommendation for the second round of this election. she's unlikely to endorse any of the two remaining candidates. what she's likely to announce is that they will vote blank for the second round because it's no secret that marine le pen would like sarkozy to be defeated on sunday. >> all right. thanks for that. some of the other stories there around the globe, pok i can't is reporting advanced talks to sell
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it luxury phone. nokio said to be selling the noncore of its business to gain ground in the smart phone market. the former olympian prime minister has died. gannon who spoke out against the violence of gadhafi regime an autopsy will be carried out to determine the cause of death. mexican regulators are set to rule today on one of the country's biggest antitrust cases. a $1 billion fine for media mogul and the world's richest man, carlos slim. last year's mexico's competition commission fined them for charping excessive prices. telcel has appealed. american mobile controls 07 respect about of mexico's mobile
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phone market. ahead of that ruling, trading higher by 3.3%. meantime light square controlled by hedge fund manager fim falcone has reportedly managed to avoid default for now. reports say creditors have agreed to extend talks on about $1.6 billion in debt for another week. those creditors which include carl icahn had given them until 10:00 a.m. eastern today to strike a deal to restructure harbin ger's control of light squared. in february, the fcc pulled a waiver that would have let them build hair mobile network. and coming up on the show, move over disany worney world, angry breaking in to the theme park business. with the spark miles card from capital one,
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mobile gaming sensation angry birds catapulted to new height this is weekend with the opening of its first official angry birds theme park in finland. tom mackenzie sat down with the ceo of the company that created angry birds and started by asking him where he sees the brand going. >> we're definitely moving in the direction of becoming much
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more of a media company where we are centered around strong brands and angry birds is the first in a hopefully long series of strong brands. >> where do you see the angry birds brand going for us? >> merchandise for us is quickly becoming a very, very important revenue stream for us. so it's balancing out, i would say. >> how are you hoping to expand in the could i sneeze market? >> china is a very interesting market because some of the ways to monetize work very well in the west my not work in china. and then there are other ways foeps that's why we're actively exploring retail opportunities as to find the best ways monetize. >> one app can be at the top of
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the charts one week, another the next temperature hhelp how do y against that? >> when we launched, there are now several hundred thousand more. so the fierce competition has always been there. we do as we've done so far, we keep making games that delight our fans, keep providing lots of updates and an overwhelming value for our fans and keep making games that we are very are proud of. >> do you worry about another dot com bubble? >> unlike in the early 2000s, there were lots of companies with lots of user, but very few ways to monetize. now there are many, many ways to monetize. and that's why there is a solid
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foundation for companies. >> tell us about consolidation in the sector. you made a couple of acquisitions last year. do you expect further in the future? >> that's something that we're looking at, yes. it's likely that well will do. >> we've seen a lot of excitement around the facebook ipo. any fans for a rovio ipo? >> that, too, is an issue for the owners of the company and no decisions about that have been made. >> and that was the ceo of the creator of angry birds. and coming up, the international labor organization warns that austerity is hurting job markets worldwide. and predict it is that more than 200 million people could hit the unemployment line this year. we'll talk to the author of the latest report coming up next. grs
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headlines this morning, international labor agency warping that the world is facing a jobs crisis saying the number of unemployed people will rise to 202 million this year. and here in the u.s., friday's jobs report could show another month of slow growth as the warm winter may have pushed companies to finish all their hiring earlier than expected. >> spain back in recession. gdp contracts 0.3% in the first
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quarter, although slightly better than expected. s&p takes negative action on 16 spanish banks. >> welcome back to the show. nice to have you here on"world." let's see how the markets are poised to open. slightly lower open right now. dow by 12, nasdaq by 4, and the s&p 500 lower by 2. this after we saw an okay day for the markets on friday. we were slightly higher. nasdaq posting its best week in almost three months helping some of the momentum last week, we saw encouraging earnings report, better than expected consumer sentiment report, although we were still weak on that gdp. but in terms of the puts this morning, we were a little higher in asia, all hoe some though so big markets are closed. >> european stocks have been
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down for most of the session. foot city 100 down half a percent. crack 40 down 0.8%, inflation did decline, but not as much as expected. ecb meeting this spain this week. which seems are appropriate. thousands of spaniards took to the streets on sunday to protest against the government's proposed budget cuts. peace pl demonstrations in cities across the country came ahead of gdp figures out this morning which confirmed the country's back in recession after contraction for the first three months of this year. the unemployment rate in spain is how at 23.6%. international labor organization criticized europe's austerity drive as ill conceived and holds it partly responsible for deepening the job crisis.group
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now predicts global unemployment will hit 202 million by the end of the reyear. its latest report says spending cuts have had devastating consequences. failing to produce any meaningful reductions in deficit. joining us from geneva is raymond torez. raymond, thanks for joining us. fairly stark forecast of unemployment. your rue here as we see in spain, nearly one in pour of the working population don't have a job. your view is that austerity is entirely the wrong policy, is it? >> obviously public deficits have to be reduced. in some countries they reached 10% of gdp. this is not sustainable obviously. however, there are two issue has have to be kept in mind. first of all, aggressive reductions in the public deficit
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are you willy counterproductive. they of course affect the economy, but in addition, they don't lead to significant reduction to public deficit itself. in addition to that, it's important to add to any strategy to reducing public deficit in a reasonable manner, it's important to have the growth strategy which is totally missing. >> there's always a j curve effect when you implement austerity. those who argue it's the right thing to do say growth will poll cutting budgets and with growth you will get employment. it's just there's a lag. >> this is the was male but it's based on the assumption that this austerity will lead to improved confidence in markets. in turn making room for more private investment, growth, et cetera. this is not happening.
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in fact confidence is deteriorating. even rating agencies have continued to downgrade the countries that undergo austerity. it's been hit by the lack of credit especially to small enterprises. do you know for example that in many enter rises, the cash in hand of large enterprises is very significant, in fact has increased. and enterprises in this very uncertain environment prefer not to invest. small enterprises don't have access to credit. and as long as this continues of course, there's no recovery in view. >> and obviously youth unemployment a particular problem within the eurozone and spain specifically, as well. how can some of the countries start to work their way out of that issue getting the youth population a little bit more engaged in finding jobs?
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>> first of all, it's impossible to see massive declines of youth unemployment unless the economy starts to recover and new jobs are created. because youth are disproportionately affected by the recession. secondly, there are good practices here which could be used as a source of inspiration. for example, it is well-known that countries have managed to help youth combine study with work experience do better than other countries. countries like us a tree, a netherlands, europe or germany do better because of this policy. also in some cases for youth who get demoralized, it's important to start to launch second chance programs which may require public intending but that's what they mentioned before. this is a plan that will have more growth and in the end confidence. >> are any of the countries
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doing anything that you view as constructive or are all their policies a little too harsh and going to makt situation worse, and then the second question is i'm reading that germany's facing some strikes as people want waning increasge increases be inflationary and imwondering about some of the unemployed could actually my great igrate countries where there is healthy growth. >> some countries are doing well and adopting the right policies. for example, in australia, they adopted very different policies. unless canada and actually in the u.s. is one of the few developed economies that has a national job plan. none of will this in european countries for example. out i'd developed economies, brazil for example or south korea are actually inclusive policies with very important employment element.
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so in terms of the strategy at the determine any, the pact that wages increase in germany can be seen first of all as a result of market forces. there are labor shortages this germany and therefore wages rise. that's to be seen. but in addition, it would help determine any itself rebalance its economy because it depends so much on countries now in recession. and also you would have those other european countries, as well, because the german market will expand and will have recovery in the other european countries. of course higher wages in germany may entice some people in other countries to move to germany to find new employment. however, it's important to know that in germany, workers need the right skills and it's not always the case that the people can have those skills he .
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>> we'll have to leave it there, thank you so much, raymond. international labor organization. and thank you of course to allison who will stay with us for the rest of the program. meantime, coming up on "worldwide exchange," with global committee markets live up to the old adage of sell about if may and go away?
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last trading day of the month. ftse 100 down just a third. compared with performances this year, dragged ftse m will ib down to negative for the year. the cac only up 2%. you can see where we stand so far for the month for the u.s. stocks pretty mixed. slim losses. compared of course with the annual performances so far this year.
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>> and joining us to talk more about the markets is jack, let's kick it off with you, pretty decent performance. do you believe sell in may and go away? >> i think will time around it will be a little different. i think what we need to do is maybe buy a little put protection and walk away. the numbers that we are seeing he's corporations post are just amazing. and what i really love is the lowering of expectations season which seems to precede every one of these earnings seasons. we seem to set that bar real low and then we're pleasantly surprised that these corporations are showing amazing numbers. apple's fulls just blew away the street. they're indicative of what corporate america is doing right now and that is just shocking analysts left and right. $105 is what the s&p is
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projected to earn this year. that is significantly higher than where a lot of projections and analysts are looking for. >> and when we talk about the earnings growth, blended earnings growth now above 7% as you said, well above expectations. do you expect that momentum to continue throughout the second quarter and in fact throughout the rest of the year? >> i expect earnings to continue. it's really a question of whether we'll see an expansion of multiples. and i think a lot of that is coming to really depend on what happens in november, what happens with the political situation. a lot of the reason that we are trading with a 13 multiple is because of will this drag that we're seeing based off of this black cloud of overregulation, of uncertain city hangity hangi market. we're looking at the largest tax increase that the american consumer has ever faced unless something is done by congress. we're looking at regulation that seems to be holding back hiring.
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so all of that is really creating a bit of a spring that is just loading up. and we see that spring basically manifesting several in a ten year note where right now a lot of europeans are using it as a u.s. government sponsored mattress to really preserve capital as opposed to putting people to work and actually seeing capital put to work for the right reason. >> jack, i can see that in the near erm there witerm there wilf uncertainty and the pollic iki politicking going organization but do you you see one impacting the market more than the other some. >> if we see any kind of a swing toward the right, any type of a romney type of lead in the poll, more than likely we'll get an expansion of multiples. i think with an obama re-election, we continue struggling with a 13 multiple. doesn't mean it won't go higher because earnings are still
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there. i think with a romney victory, we'll see a market that probably gives us a 16 or 17 multiple which will send us significantly higher. the real question is when will we see the rotation out of bonds. looking at that bond market should scare everybody that is sit manage fixed iing in fixed because right now you're sitting on all risk and no return. for hose coming outalmost a tal philosophies. >> jack will stay with us. we'll get more insight from him. for now over to ross. >> beyond anheuser-busch indefinite reported first quarter profits up 75%. revenues 4% better. strong beer sales in latin
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america. company benefitted from lower taxes and financing costs. the shares today nevertheless down 2%. dirk, it's interesting ing says although earnings per share were better, do you have to strip those out to get a reflection of what's really happening? >> growth of about 7% was slightly in line and probably in line with consensus about not slightly weaker. but, yes, the one off impacts of finance costs provided most. >> so what is happening with volumes? >> for inbev, this is one of their best quarters for over three years. it there is a favorable impact. but for the company as a whole,
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they clearly have been executing well in the markets. market shares were basically flat. they've had good innovations in the quarter with the likes of bud light platinum and other innovations. so i think the key here is that they're executing better than the competition. >> i was going ask you about the competition. what we're seeing is an indication that the whole group is doing well and if not, what are some of the companies that you're worried about? >> i think the winner is inbev against miller coors. i think there's clearly been a market share shift there and i think clearly in this case inbev has been the winner at the expense of miller coors. >> if you want to hold this company by it, why, why hold it, why buy it? >> you're looking at a company growing the it top line 67% organic. you're buying an earnings stream
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growing probably 12% to 13% over the next three to four years. and you're buying really i would argue a great visibility on earnings and cash flow. they've got very strong relevant market shares in key markets such as the u.s. and brazil and that implies a longevity of cash flow certainly. and on top of that, i think you're getting an increase in dividend. up 50% to the year end 2011 and we think another 30% will year. >> okay. good to talk to you. thanks very much. i coming up next, the key indicator out today is the chicago pmi expected to fall more than one point. we'll zero in on those mums. >
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day it take out of spain, some reports now, another official being quoted by dow jones suggesting they see another ten billion in saving. looking for 20 billion in regional and local government savings. so i'm not sure whether the 10 is made up of that 20 or whether that's another number on top, as well. any wae, they certainly need savings after gdp numbers contracted today. they need growth as well as cutting spending. that contraction slightly better than the 0.4% forecast last
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week. also data out on the amount of money banks have been moving up sovereign bonds with for the ecb money. ittal kran banks took up a record amount of government debt in march. ecb suggests they bought net purchases, sovereign bonds worth 23.7 billion, highest on record. spanish banks increase their purchases of debt to just over 20 billion euros. french banks apparently bought just over 8 billion. so between them, that's around 52.1 bought in march. goldman sachs, jim o'neill has been approached by the country's treasury about becoming the next governor of the bank of england. sunday times suggest the economist was contacted several months ago about the role, though both sides have refused to comment. skink will step down in 2013 and the official selection process to find a replacement for him starts in will the autumn.
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i wonder --klskink will step do and the official selection process to find a replacement for him starts in will the autumn. i wonder --process to find a re for him starts in will the autumn. i wonder --the official selecti to find a replacement for him starts in will the autumn. i wonder -- i presume it has to be a british national, but i may be wrong about that. >> and meantime march personal income and spending is out at 8:30. income forecast to raise 0.2%, spending 0.4%. at 10:00, we'll get the april chicago pmi, economists looking for a reading of 16.9. and it's a fairly busy week for data with the ism manufacturing and services indices, construction spending, auto sales, friday's jobs report due out, as well. among the companies reporting earnings today, humana, watson pharmaceuticals. jack is tell with us. i want to come to you on some of the economic data points that we'll see out today. what is the most important
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point? >> i think pmi will be important, personal income is slightly important. but even more important is the end of the month and beginning of the month tomorrow. let's keep an eye on cash flows. >> and what about the employment report on friday? your expectations for that? >> i'm looking for about 160,000 with nonfarm payrolls. looking forr looking for the headline number to be flat. that's the key as to whether we see another round of qe-3. a bad number will be treated as a good number by the market. >> and speaking of the further round of qe on the table, i know the markets are hoping for any indication that it's still out there, but it would really take a lot for that to happen. >> i think another couple of numbers of unemployment maybe with flat headline numbers and you see nonfarm payroll under 200,000 would more than likely spark it. it's getting into a political
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season and you'll more than ikely s likely see the fed act politically. >> okay. we'll have to leave there. thanks to both jack and allison for joining us on the program. that wraps it up for today's show. i'm jackie deangelis here in the united states. >> and ross west gate here in europe. thanks for watching "worldwide exchange." coming up next, "squawk box," countdown to the opening markets. whatever happen, we hope you have a profitable day.
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spain's economy slipping back into recession in the first quarter, meantime s&p is downgrading 16 of the country's banks. the focus in the u.s. turns to jobs this week. the april monday farm payroll report as it always is will be released on friday. first friday of the month. and goldman sachs is becoming increasingly bearish on the u.s. economy. it expects the nation to have added only 125,000 new jobs this month. plus among our corporate headlines this morning, a google engineer said to have talked about a promise capable of collecting personal data from people's home networks. it's monday, april 30th, 2012. "squ
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