as for the nasdaq, that was a loser today. both today and during the month of april. the nasdaq is still up 17% here to date. down 1.5% posting the largest decline for november. that will do it for us. see ow wednesday in new york. hope you will follow me on twitter and google plus. have a great night and stay with us for fast money right now. >> i'm melissa lee and here are the top three trades. we are trading the winners and losers of the month. the big earnings for pfizer. trading the shake-up of groupon and analyst who had an accelerating on the stock with the ipo. it will make a difference for shareholders. $70 billion worth of advice and find out what the top stock picks are right now. this is fast money. let's start trading the last day

of the month in the books. what should we do with the big winners and losers. does it go away with the big names. let's start off with the losers here. netflix, first solar. sandisk. >> first solar, any bounce you get in solar has been to sell. the price of polysilicon is down 35%. they are laying off 3500 people. they have done 25% of the work staff. things are really in a difficult place. i don't think you buy any of these bounces in the space. there have been great rallies to trade. >> i look at one. the jen worth is one that sticks out to me. the stock traded about 200 million shares that is tremendous volume for these guys. the mortgage insurance is lousy, but improving. they are doing a report after the bell.

there is a get chance it is obliterated. there is an equally good if not a better chance. if you are looking for beta, get into it tomorrow. >> that's what i'm talking about. >> where as netflix is still negative. >> i am negative on it. we have put spreads on earnings and we have put spreads out in june. i would look to roll down and take money off. the valuation changed quite a bit since the day before they reported earnings. i would not be going long. >> you wouldn't? let's look at the best performers and stick with the names. expedia, o'reilly and amazon. amazon.com up 15%. a nice pop on the back of the earnings and do you continue with this? >> amazon is due for a pull back. i think this was a phenomenal quarter much as the last quarter was just slammed. the quarter before this when the stock broke down into the 170s,

this time it's done almost a mirror image of apple as far as exploding to the upside on greater earnings and extended it so slightly the day after and it may be due for the same pull back we are seeing right now. that's my reasoning for playing this one. perhaps short-term on the short side. >> i had put spreads into the amazoners. that is zeroish. if i round. they go exactly to zero. i didn't think the quarter was so great. i still don't get it. no shot that this valuation makes any sense to me. in the near term, i don't know why the market was so delighted with that quarter. >> that are stock is up 28% and one of the big winners of the month. does that transfer over to the refiners? i say no. this is probably a bid that we will see others to follow. a lot of people feel that the etp bid is something that first of all is part of the currency they are paying is with their

own shares. they may not be able to pay and the shareholders won't approve. citi has a report out and enbridge is one of them. they have the balance sheet to make the purchase. i don't think the stock is dead. >> this is a developing story. groupon shares tanking after the company replaced the chairman and howard schultz and let's get the latest. kayla? they saw the groupon stock taking better than 11%. after hours it did get recovery and that's because of the financial expertise of the two members that will be taking the place of howard schultz and set to retire at the beginning of june and also the cfo and trying to bolster the expertise on the

board. one of the big things raising the question and from the excel partners and the lock up on groupon shares, whether this means excel will get out of groupon completely after selling the shares in the offering, that could bode poorly. down 66% from the ipo price. we definitely want to see what the numbers look like. >> we want to bring in the next guest. rick summers at morning star has us celebrating on the stock. he had those ratings in that target since groupon's ipo and he followed the advice and would have avoided a 38% loss. he joins us on the fast line and it was widely expected that they would be replace and does this make the situation more attractive at this point? >> maybe less unattractive. they can be bold to call it more attractive. they have a lot of self-e facing

activity. we haven't been good at being a public company and this is obviously probably the most public admission of that. the collection for investors and changing the board members that changed the story or is it opted for everyone. >> they noticed it was interesting. they had results immediately not staying until the june annual meeting. the other is at least station through the annual meeting. that was curious. troubling. or nothing at best. worse trouble. that was sort of a question to you. i don't know if you have any response. >> so yeah, it certainly was curious. one of the things we look at is the venture capitalist. his lps and probably more so than the public invest ors when we talked about the balance. it's never a concern. we highlight this and public investors and venture capital

firms. they want high short-term stock prices and probably less concerned over the long-term. this is obviously a risk and a misalignment of incentive at the time. is it a concern when he peels off? not necessarily, but these are never good things. there is a huge overhang and we have more questions than answers. outside of the financial control. we have challenges about the business and from our perspective, they have been pursuing growth in areas where they have less advantage than local advertising. >> i have a question for you. on march 30th, when they revised the fourth quarter, they reaffirmed the may 14th quarter, what are the chances that they screwed that up and missed? >> i think there is a chance, but one of the things is these short-term levers, they can push the accelerator down and spend

$5 and buy $1 of revenue. what do they focus on? we continue to tell them look, these guys grow 60 or 80%, but the longer term remains. in each of these lines of business, they could be destroying cash flow. we haven't seen any transparency run good. any visibility on getaways. can they compete against an expedia and the other areas and new areas and looking at groupon good? can they compete against amazon that obviously has greater knowledge of the customers than the better ability to convert customers in our mind. >> this is kaitlyn back at hq. i am curious what you think about the accounting experts. they are now adding a vice chairman and they have three of the big firms as advisers and they work with kpng and we are only missing price water house cooper. when you are the first mover,

it's trial and error. to what extent is having more on board mean that your models is right? >> taking a step back and giving them a little bit of forgiveness and a free pass is aggressive. we are not dealing with the off. it's know issue of whether you need to be aggressive when you offer big product warranties. you should ask yourself when there is an accounting issue, who is the first person you look to? you look to adding a couple of board members and is the broader collection about prouders and human resources. changing a couple of board members. that's a bit of a levy thing. >> would it make the stock more

attractive? >> there was that article about him having a town hall meeting while swigging a beer. this is not the base of a company you want to put forth. >> so i think there a couple of things. we have never seen a semblance that he is not the guy who needs a company. he has a great deal of moral authority. he has the passion to be able to lead the company and you need someone who can keep that pointing north, if you will. the bigger issue is we need to understand how well they are doing and simply having the management trust us and we are doing great and it's not sufficient anymore. understanding the lines of business and more about the actual business as opposed to that. that's what the stock needs more than anything. >> our thanks as well for kayla who has been following this story. i am curious what you think of groupon. if there is activity and down

11%. >> there was not a lot of this. between the time when they announced the departures and the new people they brought on which in the terms of the american express ceo is impressive. my participate is that was the kind of person you need at the start. a lot of the boards are celebrity bores and not boards that are there to help the companies grow. to pick schultz, a brilliant guy, this is not a starbucks and not anything like starbucks. they needed something completely different on this board and instead they went after celebrities and that is working against them. >> you are short groupon? >> the earnings coming up and you have this gigantic lock up. only about 5% or 6% of the shares trade now. that's a lot of shares to come on.

>> next trade here, barnes and noble on the new partnership with the software giant that is in the book biz. earlier on fast money, the value investor told them about the long position in the stock. >> worry the stock at 27, we were thinking it would be a good time to exit. with the stock in the 22 range, we still think it's attractive. >> you might be scratching your head because it was short barnes and noble until last tuesday and you turn it into a long position and they got a sizable stake in barnes and noble. he is make making the case that there is more upside. do you think that there is more upside? do you understand what barnes and noble gain from this? >> for barnes and noble, they gain a foothold and it gives them a distribution and eyeballs for a cheap price. this is not the answer here. i haven't heard enough

articulated to understand how the business and the business model works. this is not a business that has me running back into the stock. it's not a stock i would own. i don't hear anything that changes the story. >> you were on conference call and tried to understand this deal. >> literally the terms of the deal and it's unclear the mechanism that is not 3 hundred help million of equity and 300 million of a preferred. the pricing is not set yet. whether they do a spin. they don't know they are senior to the barnes and noble. they top the do this with mike so soft. it's spare change to them. i could see how they want to do it and it's fun to the loss making business. i don't understand what the new part is. you surprised whitney wants to stay in? he said he would take a little off the table. >> imagine the size of the

position given the pop. >> i would say i would take off at least 50% on any pop like this. this is like one of the flyers or a bit of good luck that happens. the timing of this as short as it was for him to be in here, this is like closing on the instagram deal three days before facebook buys you out. are you not going to take the money and run? you should. >> there was a confusion that ended the day at south of 21, i think. there is a lot of uncertainty here. >> josh brown is a contrarian and do you get this deal? >> why is everyone so afraid to say sell the stock? forget about getting it or not. none of this solves the real issue. this is like 1,000 legacy stores that with every passing moment they work less and less both for the consumer and the company. the one thing they had going was nook.

they didn't need any help with nook. they did little for barnes and noble. to me it's a nice announcement. the spike in the charts will be something we look back at and laugh, but it changes nothing about the business. i looked at the release and heard the commentary. nothing to talk about. if you didn't like it at 15, no reason to like it at 20. >> other than the best buy situation where you had the person at best buy chasing some employee around, other than that happening here, what's the difference between barnes and noble and best buy and why you want to invest in this business given the competition online? >> you and i are on the same page and it's tragic because i love bookstores, but this is not an investable story right now. >> let's move on to the other part of the story. the next guest is a partnership and a bigger story about the strategy and microsoft is his

top value. the senior technology analyst and that is always great to have you with us. >> thanks, melissa. you look out at the deal and we want to highlight, this is part of a broader trend of microsoft to force the strategies and the partnerships without doing acquisitions. you look at the nokia deal and you get them to back the platform and to catch up and the yahoo deal where they are partnering and get research to close the gap and even smaller things like having bing be the search platform on the blackberry research in motion phones. this is good use of microsoft's cash. a small amount and less than 1% of the total cash and it gives them a seat at the able for the number two platform. >> i agree. it puts them in a different realm. that's the right multiple? microsoft has been a nice performer and a four-year high.

fair valuation is 38.5 or 39. >> if you see them stick through the slow down in the pc market place, we don't see them selling. >> i'm sorry to interrupt you. we have breaking news. we want to go to bertha coombs. >> police are telling us -- the nypd said there have been a number of suspicious envelopes sent to an area in negotiation. two locations of wells fargo and one in mid-town at madison and 34th and another at broadway and 85th. at this point they do not believe there is anything hazardous involved with them. in one case, there was a note that read welcome to may 1st. the sources are telling the callings at w nbc in new york they believe this may be related

to occupy wall street. they are investigating whether that may be the case. at this point it doesn't appear to be anything hazardous, but there were envelopes and with a note saying welcome to may 1st. a couple of them appears to have a sort of powder inside. they are investigating the situation right now. >> thanks a lot for the update. i want to go back to collin. i'm sorry to interrupt your thought. you are talking about the managers that held on through thick and thin and now -- >> we are coming up to windows 8. it will do well in the enterprise market. they are clearly under pressure in the consumer market place. this deal will help them perhaps get more exposure. we could see windows 8 being showcased in the stores and they are having access to the catalog that will be a plus for windows 8. >> can you see them buying the

nook or hardware business to shore that part of the business up? >> you don't rule it out, but the beauty of these partner uponships is they get the benefit without doing the acquisition. >> thanks for your time. we appreciate it. microsoft may not move the longer term, but you like this. >> listen, you slap a 12.5 or 13 multiwhich is not ridiculous. yeah, it's been a performer. >> coming up next, we are taking positions for pfizer results with a top analyst. a money manager with $70 billion in assets and he is naming names on where he is finding value today. aimco's ceo and cio. much more fast coming up.

how did i get here? dumb luck? or good decisions? ones i've made. ones we've all made. about marriage. children. money. about tomorrow. here's to good decisions. who matters most to you says the most about you. massmutual is owned by our policyholders so they matter most to us. massmutual. we'll help you get there.

>> welcome back. earlier today we asked you how pfizer should spent the nestle deal. 38% said invest and 14% said the company should buy back shares. we will get answers tomorrow when pfizer reports earnings. we bring in the analyst with isi with what he is expecting. what do you expect with the cash use here? >> thanks for having me on? >> pfizer has been clear in the message. the quote they like to use likes to use something along the lines of share buy backs are the case to beat. a message to shareholders that they want the inclination to get cash back through a share buy back. they haven't ruled out doing both on the type of acquisitions with biotech names with part of the proceeds. investors want buy back and it

is bar will be high if it does something other than buy stock back with the cash they raise. >> the is the first full reporting quarter that they don't have exclusivity. a lot of investors were anticipating a hit, but what are the numbers to look for tomorrow? >> you are right. one of the things about the drugs that go off patent and experience the patent cliffs is they disappear and they are easy to model and estimate the impact. i don't think there will be any surprises for lipitor. expectations are very, very low. pfizer has put into place interesting and novel techniques to try to hang on to a little bit of share of lipitor in the face of generics. we get a positive surprise that held on to that share. i don't expect that to happen and investors are looking for that. what they are looking for are how the pipeline is progressing and what they will do with the

cash and one of the important products on the pnl is the vaccine for pneumonia. i think that will do just fine. i expect the earnings to be a positive one. one thing to look at, about 10% derived from the emerging markets. that's hard for analysts to investigate. results from other companies it appears have been mixed on that front. it will be interesting to see what pfizer reports. >> i'm one of the guys that thinks the emerging market business is one of the reasons. of all the major drug companies, they have the best positioning not only from a product perspective, but what they have on the ground. what do you think is the head wind here? everywhere i look aside from the core generics business, the em farmer growth is astounding. why are these guys failing versus their own expectations and not just the street? >> it's a good point.

on one hand people in the emerging markets are earning more money and eating more food that makes them unhealthy. >> fantastic. >> they need american pharmaceutical drugs. the issue is really pricing. the issue has note been volumes. it's been pricing. drugs cost a lot of money and even in the emerging market it's less and represents cost for governments. there have been price reductions in the emerging markets. predicting when the price reductions happen and the magnitude of the price reductions is challenging. pfizer expects this year emerging market sales to grow in the high single digits and that is down from the original expectations somewhere in the teens. they said that reduction in their guidance which they reduced it last january. they said the reduction was due

to pricing, but they were bullish on volumes. long-term the risk will be around pricing. >> thanks for for your time and good to speak with you. 3843% yield. >> take any more digits? we talk about pfizer for a while. human genome went from 7 to 14 1/2 after the gsk announcement. a lot of people say take the money and run. i think this has 18 1/2 to 20. my sense is glaxo will raise the bid if nobody else comes in. human genome i think is the most interesting amount. >> is pfizer dead money? >> it's always dead money. it doesn't move very quickly. that's the set up for the earnings for this call. pfizer were buying the may calls and selling the weekly big numbers. they think the stock goes up a

dime. i don't like to trade sthoox go up a dime in a week. >> apple halo stock and that is broad com. trading the deal that was not in monster beverage. zap technology. arrival. with hertz gold plus rewards, you skip the counters, the lines, and the paperwork. zap. it's our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. you have to dig a little.

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our fastest way to return your car. just note your mileage and zap ! you're outta there ! we'll e-mail your receipt in a flash, too. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. coca-cola is in talks to buy the energy drink maker monster energy. coca-cola could sell bottling to pay for the potential deal. >> coca-cola said at this time we are not in discussions to acquire the monster beverage corporation. >> quite a roller coaster ride. shares hit an all time high before closing 22% lower than

the interday high. they are in the trade. that ramp up is the part of the trade you are in. >> and i wish i would have had the good sense to get short. the news seemed to be compelling reported by dare an rovell. on the dip back down to 72, i was able to buy it and write it back to the upside. did not get short. >> let's move on to the next trade here. we will talk about apple and priceline. actually, i'm sorry. we will talk delta first. that was a tease for the time we will talk about apple and priceline late or. delta closed and we have the details on this deal. >> hey, melissa. how are you doing? this is an interesting deal we have been covering for several weeks and a couple of points i wanted to draw attention to. bp stepped in where jpmorgan

fell out. jpmorgan was going to purchase crude and ship it across the atlantic and finance the refining. bp will play part of that role. they will research it and ship it and delta will finance themselves, but they have an elaborate set of swap arrangements that came in at the last minute. it was as late as last week that was a couple of months of discussion here. conco phillips, phillips 66 to be exact will swap jet fuel in return for gasoline, diesel and other products that come out of this refinery. taken together, delta is optimistic that they could get 80% of the domestic jet fuel needs from trainer and the swap deals. that's interesting. think about the fact that they have four billion gallons of jet fuel every year. they are north of $3 billion and

less that than will be coming out of this transaction. buying a refinery is not good economics and even though 150 or $180 million is dirt cheap relative to what it would have been five years ago. i am told it's impossible to fully hedge and it's too difficult for a big user of jet fuel in a climate where crude is expected to go up. do everything you need to do in the paper market. that's the rational and i am told that the ceo and others are in new york trying to convince analysts as to why it made the most sense for them. >> for made sense when you broke the story about jpmorgan and the financing for some of the parts of this deal. that's when i got excited about it and rode your coat tails in so kudos to you for that.

now that the baby is born and people are reacting to the rest of that, i'm out of the trail. >> interesting. even though investors seem to like it at least modestly, i think aftermarket the stock was up 1 and change perce percent. >> i do not get encouraged by anything i hear they like. my part is i hate that they this doesn't make me like it any better. i get the creativity of the deal. what we are missing is that nobody wants to own refineries. they are selling, but don't forget. they are selling the entire subsidiary that does all the refineries that takes the spin off. they want out of that business entirely. what does delta and the partners know about refining that the guys don't? tomorrow you will see them trade on their own. that's a liquidation of the

business and that's the best way to look at it. refining is not a great business. airlines were a worse business and how do we have a good business? >> let's move on to the next trade and now wing talk apple at priceline. >> priceline also in the red. there seems to be confusion about how to position against them. carter and our friend from oppenheimer sent interesting statistics because we paired them together because there is a high correlation between them. the daily correlation between apple and priceline was 62% and the correlation is higher than apple or priceline to the nearest competitors. that's why we are taking a look at apple and priceline. >> into the earnings of apple a week ago, the straddles were shrinking. the more they went down, the less you were paying for protection or the less you were paying for the upside. that almost never happens.

priceline last friday, the money travels to $69. today it was $72 all day. i suspect it will go higher into the may 8th earnings. let's keep an eye on that. these are going opposite directions and maybe that told us something that priceline won't do as well if they turn around and do a 180 on what apple did. >> what are is the next stop for apple? is that somewhere around that. >> we have done a nice job. we said if you are look for the opportunity to buy, here it is. spike up. that day we said here's your chance to get out and we are right smack in the middle. it's probably a no touch. wait and see if it pushes back down. >> coming up next, do you dare buy chesapeake energy and breaking down the call that gave them a week today. he is a man who manages $70 billion and revealing his best stock ideas right now.

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>> welcome back. we are live at the market site in times square. leo debever is responsible for

more than $70 billion in pensions and joins us for the fast money portfolio for how to protect your nest egg. great to have you with us. we appreciate your time. we want to go through your portfolio. we say you would rather be in stocks and bonds and allocations say you are mostly in bonds. 45%. you are starting to shift at this point? >> we are starting to shift and we are at the end of the 30-year market in bonds. they are still pumping money into the economy and they take risk in stocks and bonds. i would say in both cases, i would stay at the less risky part of the stock or bond market. i think that's why you are going to get more bang for your buck. >> in terms of the reallocation, what are the pieces of the bond market you are most eager to get

out and in stocks? >> sovereigns are the weakest part and i would rather be in high quality corporates and high quality north american corporates than anything else. the fear right now or the concern is about europe. about some of the things that are going on in various markets. i think the underlying problems are not unique to europe. i think in two or three years, they will get the same revisiting they saw when people were questioning the u.s. bond rate. what this is all about is the social programs that have been in place the last 40 or 50 years. we are not well-calibrated and they are starting to come out in the gdb ratios. >> when you are looking at equities, do you take more of a growth or value perspective? you have an interest in the emerging markets that are never particularly cheap, but it is giving the growth or exposure to the growing demographic and everyone understands at this point. how are you assessing for you?

i know they are not two-day investments. they are long-term for the core. give us more color there. >> we are probably more of a value investor over longer horizon and not in the game that you were discussing for day trades. we take a five or ten interview and we look at every emerging market with the price and where the governance is. they are coming out of the stocks and we are relatively conservative and we have to be. that's the end of the market and in the long run, doesn't give you as much return on the risk they are taking. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. seems you want to be in areas where there could be inflation and if so, what would be the

industries do where you get a bang for your buck out of inflation? >> they have a good franchise and if inflation comes can increase prices. i are not looking at companies that basically are completely price takers. we would look more about the icons that have a pricing and the exxons and the mcdonald's and the ibms of the world fit into that category. >> we will leave it there. thanks for your time. from aimco. >> what is the best way to position yourself from next month and next year? we are checking them for you after this. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting.

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>> april historically the third best month of the year for the markets, but the last 30 days have been an exception. what we have seen could continue into the summer.

steve is a technical analyst at bank of america and merrill lynch. welcome. wall street adage here. anything in the charts to back that up? >> we have an election near pattern in the market and typically when it happens, you get a shift to the defensive groups. in april they started that to sectors. if you are looking at the election year pattern, the weakest two months of the year are april and may. followed by the three strongest months of the year. take a look at the s&p 500, you can get a pull back. you can get a pull back towards the 1300 and 1250 area. we think that's a good buying opportunity coming forward. we think we will get good morality this year. >> what time frame are we talking about? things go down faster than they go up? we spread into the summer.

>> it's about a six to-week event. a stronger market into the july and august time frame. we have been positioned more on the growth-oriented sectors, specifically technology. we are also thinking that the financials are a good leadership group for the market. we are thinking they are testing a major zone of resistance and we think the financials will have a bit of a pull back and we look to take profits on the financials right now. we think they can move down into the support zone. we are looking at the bank index. anywhere from 50 to 55. we would look to take profit here's because it's close to resistance and support. the risk reward is not as stable. you can see the pull back into the zone. >> it sounds like you are saying it's an opportunity to pick stocks and some things are looking like they will have head winds, etc. if you look at the xoi, you are

starting to get a good trade. this may be the environment that lagged. how do you feel on that technically? >> our view is cyclical within a larger bull market. what we are focused on are the integrated stocks. the favorite stocks are the caps. we are focused on the big integrated companies and we don't like the services as much as the integrated. >> great to have you with us. from bank of america and merrill lynch with the mega cap stocks. you think of an exxon-mobil that hasn't done too much. what's your take? >> i don't like the energies all that much. we haven't had any lift and the alternatives like we were talking about, alternative energy whether it's solar or

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>>ar money in motion. our next guest is looking for a dovish statement down under. joining us with the currency play on the australian central bank meeting that will happen tonight. we will be staying up late. expectations could be a surprise in the market. >> that's right. expectations as you mentioned are for 25 basis points and the market and the features are pricing in 32 basis points that means that some people out there, some investors scope for a 50-point basis rate cut. just in case that comes to pass, we get the bigger rate cut. in any event, if they only end up cutting the price into the market, the statement will be dovish. if we're looking to get into a

short-term trade to play the rate meeting, i would enter a short position around where we are trading around 104.15 and a look down to the bigger and i put a stop up at the most recent high. 5:30 eastern time on cnbc. don't go away. we have the rate tomorrow when we come back. #

> this pay package is absurd. one of the things was the $12 million the company paid for his map and water color collection. it's ridiculous. i don't know how compensation can make you feel comfortable. they said that he created unique opportunities. that's his job. >> i have been missed ever since. i still haven't gotten over it. >> obviously you are talking about the ceo. now new concerns and they are launching an informal inquiry into the lending programs that

the company has with the ceo. >> i just think what is the chance that there might be something else we don't know? maybe. >> i wouldn't touch it. >> even with all that stuff hitting the fan right here, the stock is not going any lower. in fact it stabilized last friday and on the upgrade, it's up 4% today. that's a nice move. >> time now for the final trade. let's go around the horn. out to the contrarian desk. josh? >> we really like the action in biotechs. breaking above resistance at 83. i like this name. >> buy the xoi. >> thermo fisher on the back of this jen probe deal. >> cos. canadian oil. >> texas instruments. >> thanks for watching and see you tomorrow for sidewalk on the street. for more fast money, meantime don't