tv Closing Bell CNBC May 4, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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good afternoon. hi, everybody. happy friday. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo with the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. stocks selling off for a third straight day. after that, disappointing. >> joy:s report. all 30 dow components are in the red. s&p and nasdaq on the biggest weekly decline since mid-december. here's the look of the damage so far today. at one point, the dow was down 180 points. off the lows of 155 at 13,051. the nasdaq is the hardest hit of the major averages. technology a leader to the downside. down 2% and s&p is down 20 points. >> of course, bill, it's the jobs report that brought the
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market down. crude oil plunging $4.05 a barrel. settling at $98 a barrel. we're taking a look at where prices are heading and whether you should jump in in energy-related assets. meanwhile, we have less than an hour to go. let's take a look as the worst declines before christmas after the nation's employers added that they added just 115,000 jobs last month. that was lower than the expectations. 45,000 fewer than what economists were looking for. dow and s&p 500 have not been fairing much better today as well as on the week. posting the worst losses on a month. energy, of course, the leading decliner here. that is certainly the big laggard and leadership group on the downside.
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west texas having fallen below $100 a barrel for the first time since february. the disappointing jobs data leading to the selloff in equities as well. what's the next focus, bill? it's the economic data that is driving things today. >> what's more important? the economic earnings or the data? moving markets today, let's get to the "closing bell" exchange with bob pisani. steve liesman standing by at headquarters. yesterday, steve, a lot of second and third guessing. if it was a bad enough number, the fed might want to step in and the market might even like
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that. >> it's not bad enough to bring in the fed. it's still consistent with 2.5% growth economy but certainly not good enough to provide the growth to offset what we're seeing weakness and income in the economy. i think it was interesting to watch the market earlier in the morning which didn't react too much and the thinking was that they were banking on a number in the 120s indeed the forecast did not fall. what you're seeing is expressing that for hire number. >> and heaviest number of the week, it was a risk selloff today. >> i think things would be more brighter. we're 4% off the highs. would anybody come in here? i think the answer would be yes if there was less uncertainty here and in the united states. i see the lowest levels i've seen oil.
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oil is down 20% this week. those are your two indicators that markets are telling you that's what they are worried about. >> demand goes lower. of course, yields go lower and you wonder how low the fed will want them to go, huh? >> from a market perspective, it's going to be very difficult to trade more than 20 basis points either side of 2% for a while. especially after the failed selloff after the march 13 fed statement which gave us one shot at a selloff which brought us to a 240 yield. >> one question is you don't see any catalyst on the horizon that is going to take that uncertainty off the table until after the november election. i mean, what reaction have you seen? that's where the action is, the fed. you're not going to see much
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change until we get the clarity that we need. >> a couple things could happen. you're absolutely right. no obvious catalyst. at this point, at this rate with the way the data is going, i don't foresee ben bernanke doing any more than he's already done. no further hints than that. i do think that if the data were to break convincingly one way or the other, that could be a catalyst. we've been through the earning season. a pretty nice run that we've had. all we see here was a bounce back, and now we're back to a decent trend t. breaks definitively to the downside.
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i think you're right. >> short term that could have an impact. >> we saw the candidate come out, markets dropped on that news. it looks like we may get a center left government in france and i think there's real concerns about what is going on in greece. it's a very unstable election going on there. a lot of fringe parties are going to be involved. >> the socialist candidate said, if you don't support me, we may have to get out of the euro. >> and there are concerns that they may get an unstable coalition and repudiate the deal. >> i think that they are definitely prepared for a sarkozy loss. the real issue is, if the social left starts to make inroads in many countries in europe, over time how that affects the landscape of balance sheets and
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fiscal solvency, 6, 7, 8 months down the road. >> technology is the big loser. since the earnings came out, we've been doing 10, 15rks 30 million shares. the biggest loser is energy stocks. because once again, many of the big weeks are down 7, 8, 9% with the s&p down 2, 2.5%. >> this monday putin given that it's an enormous producer of the world. we'll be watching that as well. >> thank you all. we'll be checking back with you as news warrants. despite the big selloff, there are silver linings in the market. bertha coombs has details on
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that. bertha? >> with a risk off day like today, utilities trade to the upside. fractionally higher, hitting a new high today on the back of an upgrade over at b of a, merrill. meantime, with oil tumbling, airlines have been fairly strong most of the day. they are up fractionally. united have having a strong day. and they've actually held up as we look at the higher oil prices. jet fuel is up 8% and we've got airlines up meanwhile, scripps
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beat estimates, both on the top line and bottom line fueled by strong revenue growth. the dy network and my guilty pleasure. the cooking channel. it's just off right now but, once again, it was an historic high. selling off hard after disappointing earnings, it's down more than 40% for the week, despite today's move to the upside. chesapeake off after all of the give and take. >> let's see. cake boss, i'm trying to think of who you are a fan of. >> my guilty pleasure. >> by the way, discredited for the last two month, being too low, too high, whatever, they got it right this month. >> they really did.
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>> we want to know whether you are willing to sell on the selloff. tweet us your thoughts, @cnbcclosingbell. >> meanwhile, we are in the final stretch. let's get a quick market check. these are the leading groups today on the downside. s&p energy index tumbling more than 2% with oil down sharply. as you know, 98.60. oil posting the worst day of the year. weaker than expected jobs report sulting that the global economy, including the united states, is slowing, jobs creation slowing, and that will mean lower demand.
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the jobs report knocking the wind out of the dow. off of the worst levels just barely. down 165, this is the worst drop in four weeks, bill. >> all right. thousands of berkshire hathaway investors making their way to ng. annual m it's always a lot of fun and that's where we usually find our becky quick. hey, becky. >> bill, this is a huge weekend. they are expecting about 35,000 to beam their way in. the big news this time around is going to be warren buffett's health since he was diagnosed with prostate cancer. we got a chance to speak with him yesterday as he was on his way into a bridge tournament. he said he felt great. he certainly looked good. all of these issues are going to bring up the issue of succession. it's something that berkshire
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talks about a lot. we've spoken with several investors and they would like to learn more about the insurance, really what is happening with them. you've got four of the five units. when you get earnings expected after the bell, sometime in the next hour you'll be hearing more of those. they will address what is happening on a base level. that's it at this point. back to you. >> great stuff, as always. by the way, becky is live from omaha on monday. join us for three hours live
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with warren buffett on the air as becky sits down with him. let's look at the stock performance. this is another issue that keeps coming up. the stock has been lagging the s&p for three years now since the market lows in 2009. does this suggest that warren buffett is losing his touch? is it a value bill? >> i love that question. >> i know it's all about the p.e., but -- >> we have asked that question in the past and we're going to pose it here again. market strategist at smeed capital management, owning class b shares, matt, i will start with you. i can remember at the height of the dot-com bubble, this
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question was being asked about warren buffett, has he lost his touch. we're asking the question again as we emerge from the worst financial crisis. are we over doing that question? >> when you look at a rock star, he deserves all of the alcolades he will get and we live day to day and i think you have to look at what we view as a management and he's underperformed year to date and if we want to make a direct investment, we would rather buy on our own some of the shares that he has but when he looks at a valuation
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perspective there's roughly 361 names. he's a clear stellar player. however, there are better opportunities out there. if i was going to invest in berkshire, you're investing in my opinion solely on berkshire. >> what have they missed the last three years? >> well, we think that the domestic story is the story in the next three to five years. it's an optimistic play on the recovery of the united states of america. a lot of people have overloaded their portfolios towards what is going on internationally, whereas the leverage comes from what is going on in the united states of america. so i appreciate what your other guest says but you look back
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five years from now and feel brain dead. >> it doesn't mean there are plenty of reasons to avoid the stock right now. so why do you like it here? >> you can take his existing portfolio of private and public companies and you bet you would outperform without additional management. >> so what happened in the last three years, then? >> he defended people's capital in the meltdown and you all remember t was a massive dash for trash. he's not trash and if you take
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out the dash for trash -- >> is it possible he's not being patient enough with warren buffett? this guy knows what he is doing. he's a patient value investor. why not just stick with the plan right there? >> well, you know, you look at it, if he's the michael jordan of basketball, even michael jordan knew when to hang it up. he will be 98 years old. he did outperform in 2008. they don't pay a dividend. >> wells fargo is 160 years old. >> right. so what. >> that's a company. that's not an individual. but what he is saying, this is an individual that is 91 and charlie is 98. wells fargo is a corporation. you're talking apples and oranges. give me a break. >> you own the companies. you don't own his life. you own the companies. he's a great -- >> then why are you in omaha,
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nebraska? >> yeah. i think you own leadership, right? you buy into a company largely -- one of the screens that many people follow is who is leading the company? what's the leadership? and he's 91 and his partner is 98. you can't compare a company 106 years old to an individual. >> bill first. >> how many times have the most successful companies in the united states of america changed their management? look, this has been the most shareholder friendly company on the planet. what you're saying is suddenly when it comes to succession that's where it's not going to work. >> what we were saying is the market underperformed for three
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years. what went wrong? as the strategy changed. >> i think it's just a function of what hasn't worked out with economic growth. >> gentlemen, thank you very much. enjoy the dairy queen there. >> good debate. let's head over to brian shactman. we've got real volume in oil etfs. what's the action? >> i'm not going to get into an argument with myself. the uso, huge etf buys the contract in oil. it is now actually negative for the year. volumes here incredible. take a look at this chart of the full screen. more than triple the volume. the percentage move is not different than the move in oil. but, a, volume is huge and, b, it's down on the year. >> big move. well, we have 37 minutes left in this trading session.
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off the lows, the dow down 161 points and nasdaq has been the hardest of the major averages. >> where should we be putting our money that is actually safe in this environment? before you say treasuries, someone here says you could make a lot more with similar risks. we're going to check it out. >> as oil prices continue to plummet, gas prices only inch lower. why is that? that's what i'm asking asking. why falling energy prices isn't all good news here. >> as we head to the break, take a look at the major commodities and how the market there is trading. we'll be right back. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. in that time there've been some good days. and some difficult ones. but, through it all, we've persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement. and the next great idea could be yours.
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welcome back. i'm sharon epperson here at the nymex. 98.50 is where we are trading and keep in mind traders decided so scale back the riskier assets ahead of this weekend's election in france and greece. a lot of anticipation there. and we are looking at prices here that have posted the big one-day slide of the year with prices where they were in february of this year. some traders saying the new fair value for oil, for the wti futures, is in the 90s and we're looking at the 200-day moving average around $96 a barrel. there is a lot of unrest and uncertainty continuing. back to you. >> sharon, thank you very much.
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30 minutes before the "closing bell" sounds for the day and week. we are watching oil today. investors trying to figure out what is next as we watch oil dip below $100 a barrel. is there more pain to come? we want to check the technicals on this. >> i she sharon hit it on the head. it's a 200-day moving average. it's right around $96. we've been back and forth during the day. we're around $98. we're right above the 200-day moving average which i think is pretty critical. when we look at this chart, we're on this 200-day right now. it's important to know where we came from. we were about 110 a barrel and that's where risk assets peaked, was a couple months ago, smaller cap stocks, commodities. we've been in this derisking mode. the 200-day has defended pretty
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well and we're back to it, oversold. i think we stabilize in this mid-90s range and bounce back around 100. >> the bottom line is, if it closes below the 200-day moving average, that's a problem. if it closes above, you say maybe it bounces on monday? >> yeah. if we can close above it, which i think we are going to do, it will hold for next week. >> all right. let's look at the etf on oil and talk to us about the implications here. this is the spider etf? >> yes. what is very interesting is when you have the strong push of oil in the spring up to 110, oil stocks did not participate as much. they did not follow the crude as high. we see energy stocks are defending the low from a month ago. they've kind of pulled back with support in here right around that 68 level on the xle, 65 would be the next support below that. so i do think these stocks are resilient given the downdraft
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that we've seen. >> bottom line, if we break below this line, if we stay above the 200-day moving average, we want to buy this etf? >> i think those are the keys. you want to be back above that relatively soon. >> andrew, thank you so much. now back to you. >> maria, as we head towards the close, dow down 166 points with just about 30 minutes to go here. a weak jobs report to blame. plus, a weak housing market. many believe that they are linked. after the break, you're going to meet someone who says that housing has poisoned your portfolio. with stocks down sharply for the week, this is what we want to know from you. are you willing to buy on this selloff or do you plan to stay on the sidelines. what's your trading strategy right now? tweet your thoughts to @cnbcclosingbell and we'll reveal your responses. in the meantime, here's a look at the dow heat map.
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bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. 183 was the low for the dow. the dow is down 1.4%. is there panic? not really. if you look at the vix, it's down 8% today but you have to look at the futures. look out into july. no big move to the upside. 2% or so if you look even further out. this is why they call it the vix curve. look out to november, just 1%, 1.2%. not a lot of panic at least going out a few months. guys, back to you. >> bob, thank you so much. we've been focusing on the jobs impact and on the economy and the implication of the housing market which is tied to the jobs market. you were just telling me during the commercial that it was six years ago that pimco told you in an interview -- right, didn't he tell you this, that he sold his
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house. that was good timing in 2006 before all of this was going on. today mark is back here today and he closes on his new home on the 10th. >> exactly. we wanted to see if this was an indicator. it's significantly outperforming the market year to date. >> with us right now to talk more about it, let's talk about your store. anyone who saw what you did back in 2006 thought you were a genius and you are closing on a new home. why and tell us what you're feeling about this market right here. >> i don't know if it was a genius. it was more luck. i did feel back then that inventories were going up. the big thing is that and on the
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demand side you have prices down 34%. you've got basically mortgage rates below 1% and you have the fed reflating and that's going to support hard assets. if you look at price to income, price to rents, housing looks real afrac tif. >> and warren agrees with you. watch hopefully as it goes up. why don't you like housing right now? >> it's a depreciating asset, first of all. why would you put down 24%. >> the rates are so low and chairman bernanke has promised rates to remain low. if you're sitting on the fence right now worried about cheap money, why would you pull the trigger when you can wait 24
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months later? >> you don't think the housing market has bottomed, then? >> of course not. >> prices are going up in phoenix. >> listen to me, 64% is a little over 65%. we have a high of 67%. in other words, too many people own homes that shouldn't be owning homes right now. we have a long way to go with foreclosures who have another 2.5 million homes in delinquency right now. it's a poison. you want to stay away from it. >> are you perhaps early in buying right now? >> it's possible. the credit is really tight. those foreclosures are improving
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and so a lot of what we're talking about, the trend is actually better. >> that doesn't mean that we're not going to bump along the bottom for a long time. we may be saying, okay, the trend looks better for another three years. >> no, i think that's a good point. i don't think you're going to see significant appreciation. a lot of it has to do with the housing relative to what else? ten-year tips are yields at 190. housing relative to other options today looks much better than it did since years ago. >> so if you're not going to buy a house here? >> you put on stocks. if you want to do something with your cash, why wouldn't you put it in stocks? we talked about it on this show all the time. i'm a bear and you know this. why put your money into something that you know is not
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going to be agile enough? >> first of all, taxes are going to go higher when the tax cut expires. >> it's not worth buying real estate at this time because we have a long way to go just and the home builders are not helping themselves. >> you say we have a long way to go. if i'm going to put money that i'm going to put in, i'm not going to flip it. >> you have to plan on dying in the home. you're never going to sell the house. you are not that flexible. and people -- this is a very transient society. we have people move, they get in and out. if you're going to buy a home right now, like phoenix, you better plan on staying in phoenix for the rest of your life. >> very quickly, mark, where else could you get a better return on your money? and since your area is fixed income, where would you go? >> basically, nonagency
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mortgages which are linked to the housing market. they are yielding 6 to 7% there is oil and pipelines. >> how about farmland? >> farmland would be great, too. timber. >> that's a great idea. >> the fed is going to reflat. that's just a fact of some part of our economy. >> buy farmland and build a house on it. gentlemen, thank you both. good to see you. >> thank you. >> let's head over to brian shactman now. he has news on southwest gas. what have you got? >> it is exactly what you think it is. it's natural gas in the southwestern united states. they have earnings that are very impressive. you see a definite pop. was positive before slipping slightly back. earnings were 171 versus expectation of 151 and revenue beat as well. got the chart? like to see it but if not i'm going to send it back to maria
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who has fired up today. i like it. >> and she hasn't even taken your vitamin. >> right. i can't find it in my pocket. we're 20 minutes in the closing day sounds. we have a market under pressure down 160. >> by the way, happy birthday to my brother today. it's somewhere between bank of america shares and berkshire hathaway. that's all i'm saying. a trader's take on this top market. will it continue into monday. and in the next hour, the jobs report is put back into focus. steve liesman with a special report on how washington is playing politics over the data. can we expect a lot of that in the next six months? i think so. back in a moment. back in a moment. there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer.
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let's get to jon fortt. he has the very latest. jon? >> maria, this is the first phase of this trial over java and android, between oracle and google. oracle suing google. this part is over copy right. that's phase one. phase two is patents, phase three, if it gets to that, is penalties. rumors that the jury might be dead locked. it seemses like they have gotten past that. it's probably points or something good to oracle in this case because the questions that the jury was having to do with the copyright issues that oracle was putting forth. we'll hear for certain on that in just a minute, maria? >> there was a note from the judge to one of the jurors saying what happens if we can't reach an agreement because apparently the jurors are sticking to their cases here but
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you're saying that partial verdict has come in. what is the remaining question, john? >> well, this first part is about copyright and mainly has to do with the java epi that allows people to write programs that actually execute in android. it's not over the java programming language, it's over the fact that google actually copied some apis in their own implementation of oracle. it seems like they might be finding in favor of oracle and it means they are not only going to do from phase 2 but phase three. it doesn't say what kind of a penalty there might be in this case. point two perhaps a victory for oracle. >> i'll point out, especially if you're not watching the screens, both stocks are just barely coming off the lows that were set in the last half hour here.
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so neither is selling off or seeing a bit of buying here. how much is potentially at stake here for either company? >> well, big dough for you and me but this is probably a subbillion and this is android, the most popular operating system. it is a pr black eye for them if they do in fact because they didn't pursue the strategy in the right way. >> yes. and both stocks are coming our way. >> ear only ten minutes away
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from the take on the market action. with the questions posed on twittersphere. if i like my stocks at higher prices, why would i not be buying down here? >> dean says, i will right today, sell on monday so i can be into facebook on friday. that's the plan. >> long-term investor there. >> and here's darren palmer. he says, equal big gains for the disciplined bulls. that sounds like a very calm and thought out response. keep sending your tweets and responses throughout the program and we have a lot more coming up in the program. >> the laggards here and not as much as energy. stay tuned.
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for a hot dog cart. my mother said, "well, maybe we ought to buy this hot dog cart and set it up someplace." so my parents went to bank of america. they met with the branch manager and they said, "look, we've got this little hot dog cart, and it's on a really good corner. let's see if we can buy the property." and the branch manager said, "all right, i will take a chance with the two of you." and we've been loyal to bank of america for the last 71 years. high schools in six states enrolled in the national math and science initiative... ...which helped students and teachers get better results in ap courses. together, they raised ap test scores 138%. just imagine our potential... ...if the other states joined them. let's raise our scores. let's invest in our teachers and inspire our students. let's solve this. of how a shipping giant can befriend a forest
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different from clear channel media. we're talking about this stock falling to the worst level in more than two years. volume is not great. the second largest outdoor advertisers expecting a loss for the first quarter. i wonder if this is giving an indication of economic conditions because it is advertising. clear channel, a sister company of clear channel media blaming weakness in europe. that has been the big issue. it says, we will continue to hurt revenue for this quarter that we're currently in. this morning on the conference call, let's check out what they are doing at $7. down 5% on the session. spain and italy put the biggest drag on the company's bottom line. international revenue makes up half of their sales. europe is front and center for investors in this stock as well as throughout the market. the shares have wiped out half of their value just over the last year, largely because of
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what is going on in europe. rival lamar advertising, by the way, is down 5%. so also negative but not as tough a year for lamar. bill, back to you. >> maria, let's move on to hit options actions. one of many reasons that a risk off sentiment is in the air. joining us once again, brian stutland. brian? >> hi, bill. the risk off is just not happening we've seen the likes of google and apple trade very poorly relative to the market and even if consumer staples have done very well and in the summer months ahead, and to play
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that to the portfolio, sell the xlp. the cash that i've raised, i'm going to set that aside. i'd have to buy it there so i'm selling it to the side. i make 105 on my trade. it's a nice 3% yield now back to you, bill. >> be sure to catch more options actions followed by money in motion currency trading coming up at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, the final dramatic minutes of the trading day. and why there may be a french connection. we'll find out why a potential change in leadership in france could have the power to pummel our economy common. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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like in a special ops mission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin. trade architect. td ameritrade's empowering, web-based trading platform. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up to $600 when you open an account. okay. heading towards the close, a pretty tough week for the u.s.
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equity. nasdaq having the worst day since last november and s&p on track for the biggest weekly decline for december. as for the dour, let's remember we were talking about a four-year high. so for the week we're down a little more than 1%. i'm showing you these one-year charts with the exponential average. it's wonky but we're keeping our eye on the long-year trend. the one-year chart on brent north sea is even lower. and the good news for all of us consumers in the u.s., if that's going lower, gasoline futures are also going lower and that's also testing the 200 day moving
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average. look who just stepped in. morgan stanley-smith barney. i want to ask you about one of your favorite stocks, apple down 6% this week. buy more, take profits, what do you do here? >> we would use it as an opportunity to buy more, bill. we think the earnings will be close to $60 this year. if you can put a 12 multiple on that, a $720 stock. the thing ran up 64% at least. >> so take a profit. >> there are those that haven't bought in and plenty that have. and the lack from european central bank, they couldn't say that they are going to do anything to help out and that, of
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