tv Closing Bell CNBC May 8, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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let's solve this. hi, everyone. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on assignment in washington where they have been watching at wall street closely. i'll get into that more with john boehner. the market not too active although i have to say a lot of people talking about this fiscal cliff that we are approaching at the end of the year, bill. >> they are focusing a lot on that in washington and they are focusing on europe and wall street. i'll bill griffeth. here's what the folks from
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washington and wall street and everywhere else are interested in. it's the stock market hitting a two-month low as euro zone fears head investors down. names like alcoa, hewlett-packa hewlett-packard leading that pack. the nasdaq and s&p fairing a little better. down a little less than half a percent at 29.33. maria? >> yeah, the upset in new york continues to unnerve investors and we will keep an eye on it throughout the program. shares of disney now but down off the lows of the earnings results at the end of the bell. we'll look at how you should play the company, especially for the incredible box office "avengers" film. that is certainly the big talk
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of hollywood right now. we are talking to the ceo right after the company's earnings are out. join us for that special interview. meanwhile, less than an hour to go. let's take a quick look at what i'm watching. greece's leftist leader announcing terms of an international bailout and threatening to nationalize the banks. across europe, we continue to see the upset sending the s&p 500 below the april lows, which traders see as a key market support level. financials, consumer discretionary stocks getting hit the hardest. but the bulls may take comfort in a note out today. he is sticking with his call with more easing at the june fomc meeting. the economy is weakening and the fed will be there. he does remain worried about a
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rehash of 2010 and '11 when the fed let previous programs expire without another one ready to go. that is front and center. what will the fed do if in fact the euro deteriorating and the euro zone worsens from here. we're talking about those themes right now and the market is deep in the red. we get more on the selloff and what it means as we bring in the "closing bell" exchange. bob pisani and sue hererra and rick santelli, as always, at the cme group. on europe, you have france going socialist. you have greece continuing to threaten it's not going to go with any of these austerity measures. how do you see this playing out? >> well, it's very easy to blame greece because that's where the headlines are coming from. if you talk to people in the market, you're basically ratcheting up all these reasons, these event risks why you wouldn't want to hold events in
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europe at moment. if you look at london, frankfurt and paris if you look at them already. we've got intractable headlines coming out from greece. at the same time, you have this focus on where we are with growth. you don't have the leadership economically perhaps from the eu and now you have europe going into real estacession. at the same time, in sprain you have them releasing the new bank plan which might entail the spanish government borrowing more more or they may not. you have all of these things lining up and aspiring people to sell what didn't matter yesterday because we've rallied in europe from suddenly from nowhere to where we have a rough session. >> that was my question, bob pisani. what was different from yesterday? we knew the personalities coming
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into power in both greece and france and what they are likely to do about austerity measures. >> to argue that they should get out of -- lead the euro or argue that we should get rid of the fiscal compact that was agreed upon, it's another thing when this man is in charge of the mandate and of the government there to argue for that. >> that is a little bit different. >> can i clarify? i think there's a slight problem in translation. this guy doesn't have any power. so maybe they are scared here about what they are hearing from athens. >> and the difference right now, bill, is that now we are getting more clarity on the fact that europe is not united. you know, for a long time, throughout this entire euro zone
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crisis, it was france, then germany are the strong countries. france and germany are going to put the austerity details in place and everyone is going to rally around that. that's no longer the case. we have a socialist president in france. germany is alone. germany is being looked at as, oh, that's the enemy. they want to cut off social services. that's the detail here. europe is not united. >> let's bring it home to the markets. sue, it becomes a safe haven play here and the dollar benefits. >> the dollar benefits, swiss frank benefits and if you think global growth is going to be derailed because of the lack of unity in europe, then you sold the gold market, which is what they were doing, because the story is not as in tact as it was. china is slowing down certainly. we saw an inflow into the u.s. dollar and into the swiss frank which is not a surprise. it's a limited trade because of some of the issues that the bank
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has addressed by putting a cap on their currency. there is not a lot of places for traders to go. treasuries, the dollar, the swiss frank. >> what about that, rick santelli? let's talk treasuries and what this is doing for fixed income. what are you seeing? is. >> there is no safe place. we just have safer places. and the old developed economies are finding a place for their bonds. but what we've done is we've moved from stabilization towards the solutions. we now have to implement everything that was agreed upon by greece. all of the issues of germany and it's behavior that is when the global economy is moving to the downside. that's why qe is the simple answer.
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>> amazing. the conversation is happening all over the world right now. thanks, everybody. we'll keep checking in. dow industrials down 112. we're off of the lows as we speak. meanwhile, new details emerging right now in the controversy over yahoo! ceo's scott thompson's resume. bertha thompson has the details. >> as a sea of red, every sector in the s&p is to the down side. we are off to the lows of the session and we're off better than 1% for all of the major averages for most of the day. consumer discretion continues to be the area where you see the most pain with concerns about consumer demand and uncertainty. housing index down nearly 2%. copper another component about demand is among the worst performers and oil off the lows but still down on the day. airlines benefit when you have
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oil down lower than 1%. yahoo! is the headline story of the last few minutes. yahoo! board meeting announcing that they are going to look into embattled and tumbling right along with toubl energy for transocean and others. and taking a look at some of the other sectors, and mum tie year lows and really problem with the company missing off the bottom and reporting up about 18 1/4%
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and and there is an outlook and really disappointing when it comes to continuingsubscribers. bertha, thank you. as we head towards the close. a lot coming here. we hope that you can stick around. the dow is down 198 and now it's a 120-point decline, bertha. oil is only at $97. $97. that's pretty expensive any way. we're going to take a break and then talk about that as well. pay your mortgage and you're on your own. now you're getting your principal reduced. that's what bank of america is doing. we'll talk about that next. should you heed warren
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buffett's advice and stay away from gold? and my exclusive interview with house speaker john boehner. >> people are talking about dividend taxes going from 15 or 16% to 43%? >> that's what's going to happen in january if we don't act. the house is prepared to act. >> looking forward to that. as we look at all of the red arrows pointing down with the s&p 2k3w4r5d you're with us. i'm here to unleash my inner cowboy. instead i got heartburn. [ horse neighs ] hold up partner. prilosec isn't for fast relief. try alka-seltzer. it kills heartburn fast. yeehaw!
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announcing it is offering more principal reductions up to $150 thou thou $,000. not only does your house need to be worthless than your mortgage, but you have to be behind on your payments. >> the write-down deal may be one of the few things bank of america is doing right. jim finger is with us. their family goes back a few generations of iterations, i should say, of b of a. your family bank sold out to another bank which became b of a later on and your feeling is that it boils down to a big problem. their ownership of countrywide financial and what to do about that, right? >> well, that's certainly an issue that's been hanging over the stock. you have a lot of litigation in mortgage backed issues. to the extent that that gets done sooner rather than later.
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>> you advocate countrywide filing for bankruptcy. what would that accomplish? >> well, what i advocate is for the board in management to tell us what investigation needs to be done on this issue. this is obviously a very complicated issue but the countrywide mortgage-related issues is about the stock. and if you look in the newspaper, ally is taking a look at their rev cap subsidiary. they have gone to the treasury to get approval to consider putting that into bankruptcy. i think that brings that whole issue back to the fore. >> jonathan, part of the issue is that the real cost, the resolution. they have so many bad mortgages as a result of countrywide that it's become a strangle hold on the company. you're right. let me get your take on what is going on today.
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the company announcing the principal mortgage write-down. do you see this as a modest move? >> i think it's a net positive. >> much has been made -- >> but i don't think it's -- >> go ahead. finish your thought. >> i don't think it's terribly material one way or the other. >> one thing that's gotten shareholder interest is shareholders are going to be wanting their voice to be heard tomorrow on brian moynihan's pay package which is less than vikram pandit. >> but vikram pandit made a dollar for several years. >> i understand. we can get into that, maria. >> i think that the compensation
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committee has done a reasonably good job of tieing their compensation to future performance. that said, the performance goal that they've set forth for management is pretty modest. they've set 50 basis points as the floor and 85 basis points as a high end and so that converts to about a 7 or 11% on return for shareholders for stock options, for their stock awards to vest. so we'd like be -- you know, i think the compensation committee has dialed back compensation at b of a. i hope they continue to take a hard look at it. >> so jonathan, bottom line here, as an investor, what do you want to see come out of that meeting tomorrow? you're a major shareholder of b of a. what would you like to see in terms of the company paying back shareholders here? they can't pay a dividend. we know that. >> right. >> and when is that going to happen? what's your take on that as
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well? >> my take on the dividend is probably first quarter of 2013, assuming management hits the capital targets that they've got. with respect to tomorrow, it would be great if we got greater clarity on how the company unlocks value. that's resolving the countrywide issues. i'd like them to look at attracting stock at merrill lynch as a way to help compensate the employees so they can see the benefits of their labor. i'd like them to talk about how to resolve countrywide. >> very good point. thank you for making that. we'll be watching for any shareholder value announcements tomorrow. thank you very much. >> thank you. bye-bye. >> we are in the final stretch. 45 minutes until the "closing bell" sounds for the day. the market off of the lows, down 96 points now off the dow. had been closer to 200 points earlier. >> maybe another hour and we'll go positive by that time. we'll see. >> wait. remember when a couple days ago the guy rang the bell too early?
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maybe le ring it late. >> is the stock a good-bye right now at these levels? earnings now just past the hour. disney in focus. we have talking numbers coming up, maria. >> who better to speak to after the numbers are out. bob will be with me after the numbers are released. as we head to the break, here is how disney has traded. only three components higher. verizon, at&t, and disney company. stay tuned. i needed a coach. our doctor was great, but with so many tough decisions i felt lost. unitedhealthcare offered us a specially trained rn who helped us weigh and understand all our options. for me cancer was as scary as a fastball is to some of these kids. but my coach had hit that pitch before. turning data into useful answers.
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welcome back. let me give you a stat check. we have the market off the worst levels for sure. the dow is still on pace for a fifth straight loss with a decline on the session of about 90 points. take a look at where we are. 92 points lower. the index has been down as low as 198 points. we're well off of that now. bank of america, mcdonald's, hewlett-packard among the big drivers right now to the down side. bill? >> disney reporting earnings after the bell tonight. you'll see maria's live
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exclusive interview with disney's bob iger. if you want to buy this stock or sell it, that's our topic today. martin is the chief technical analyst and beth covers the name. mark, what do you like? do you like disney at these levels? >> i do, bill. it's been one of the best dow performers this year. >> and we're doing candlestick. the stock has gotten up near 42, $44. it's consolidated. importantly, though, the stock has shown really little sign of deterioration. often times when these levels are challenged and you don't immediately fall apart, there's a good likelihood that it pushes up to new highs.
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>> if you look at the monthly chart, there's a couple things that support this. the stock back as far as 1998 traded up near 42 and 44 in 2000. the stock backed off again. the longer term structure is high and low. when you have a stock that rises up to challenge those levels, you can see it pays to stick with the stock and push higher. >> beth, you're not convinced that this stock is going anywhere any time soon. why? >> the stock is trading at 14 times above the market and that's where the premium belongs and that's where the stock price belongs in this macro environment. unless the number is going up. >> abc is doing well. espn is doing well. this new movie "the avengers" is doing well.
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>> well, they just spent $250 million to make and $160 million to promote should be doing well at the box office. a billion dollar box office movie happens every year. >> so you think all of the good news is in disney's stock righter? >> i do. i think we saw the stock go up a percent and a half, i believe. i think it's behind us at this point. >> gentlemen, thank you very much. thank you all for joining us today. maria? >> don't forget, we have the chairman and ceo bob iger breaking down the results. 4:10 p.m. eastern time. join us for that. this market, meanwhile, as we approach the final minutes, is the party over for the bulls? up next, the most bearish
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we have a sea of red but we're watching this market come back in a big way, bob pisani. >> we were down almost 200 points. we've rallied back one thing really happening and helping, the natural gas investors will come down. they've been waiting for a long time. we'll see. you see that rally, that's helped energy stocks like chevron and exxon which are components in the dow.
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you can see the midday rally. exxon has been doing the same thing. >> bob, the wear bears firmly in control. maybe that's because one of wall street's bearish strategists are finding value. bill? >> i'm sitting here looking at the comeback nature of the stock. you have been. last fall when we were coming off the lows and beginning a rally, you were very skeptical at that time and you are still very skeptical? >> well, the strategy worked out well for us. it's a function of two things. earnings and the multiple that
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you're going to pay for it. when the rubber meets the road, that's when we will see. >> maria, i'll let you get a question in here. but the earnings for the first quarter were not that bad and the markets responded pretty well. it's europe that is facing -- that is causing the problems for wall street right now? >> i think europe today is right. and it's certainly part of our contract is about europe. the market is at the levels that it was at in february. growth looked a little better in the economy and we've got talk about liquidity, too. the earning season beat the expectation but you have to remember there was a ton of negative guidance prior. so in august of last year, the analysts thought there would be 114 earnings it's kind of clearing a lower hurdle.
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>> adam? >> here we are in a moment of time where facebook is about to go public that. created all of this excitement around technology, around social media, be an enormous amounts of money moving into the space here. you say you want to buy growth but what about the skeptics saying that's what has been leading the market and that's going to leave the market lower if in fact we see a change because of the valuations there? >> well, so we wrote a note a couple weeks ago about growth versus value investing. we do think that fast growing stocks can actually still if they are expensive still outperform. our work shows that when you're a fast growing stock and you're cheap, you actually underperform a fast-growing stock that is expensive because the market has figured out that something is wrong if you are cheap. we are not allergic to those
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high multiple names as long as they can deliver on the line in a world where the economic growth is not great. you're going to pay a higher premium. there is logic in the construct of they are going to outperform in my mind a challenge take. >> that's technology. where are you on energy and the materials which are also two groups, of course, that have been the leadership groups in 2012 for the broader market? >> well, actually, so when we started off january 1st of owe 12, two weeks we went to the large integrated oil companies that you were mentioning earlier that had really lagged the tech in the first quarter and as a portfolio maker, maybe i should start to reverse my view. the problem is that you can't
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really show when it goes down for energy stocks. normally that's not great for energy investing. the reason it's been okay now is because what was driving oil higher was the supply fear and we want it down at a more comfortable level. >> don't you feel that the bernanke put still exists? that there's a possibility of more quantitative easing if things deteriorate enough? the job numbers have not been great. some of the economic data has shown slowdown but the possibility is out there that the fed could add more liquidity to this market? >> there's two ways to look at that. one is that the bar for more unconventional policy gets higher and higher and the other thing is what did they do? is it qe 3 or something like operation twist 2.0 which when they did the first twist the market was down 8% in three days. i don't think we want any more unconventional policy.
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why would you pay higher multiple for earnings when it's propped up by the stuff that has to be unwound? >> adam, thank you. maria, the market looks like it still wants to go down lower. we start the day concerned about europe and finish on a prevailing. >> yes. investors know that you are still looking at the best quarter for corporates that we've ever seen. and that money is going to go to work. last week i saw an observation. money is beginning to move. they are being very discerning but at some point the money has got to move. you have to believe that the stock market is the best returns
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out there over a long-term period. >> adam is squirming wanting to jump into that conversation. i'll let you do that in a little bit. we are heading towards the close though, right? >> we sure are. we have about 20 minutes to go. market is 90 points off of the nasdaq. >> you know, it was here on cnbc yesterday that warren buffett and bill gates said that goal is not a great idea. gold selling off. we're just above 1600. coincidence? i think not. both sides of the gold trade coming up next, maria. >> and then after the bell, my exclusive interview with john boehner. he would not be surprised if the economy continues to slow and he said a lot more than that. that's coming your way, next. >> as we head to the break, treasuries are higher. we're back after this.
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>> announcer: disney earnings are on deck. will it be more like "the avengers" or john carter? chairman and ceo bob iger breaks it all down just minutes after the numbers are released. it's just too hard." then there was a moment. when i decided to find a way to keep going. go for olympic gold and go to college too. [ male announcer ] every day we help students earn their bachelor's or master's degree for tomorrow's careers. this is your moment. let nothing stand in your way. devry university, proud to support the education of our u.s. olympic team. in here, great food demands a great presentation. so at&t showed corporate caterers how to better collaborate by using a mobile solution, in a whole new way. using real-time photo sharing abilities,
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welcome back. live from the capitol today, meanwhile, on wall street, we have a selloff under way. what is stunning to me is the recovery. natural gas is bucking the trend. let's get to sharon epperson who is at the nasdaq looking at the implications of natural gas. >> a stunner going into the close, spiking about 4% higher on the session. we went through the overnight high around $2.35 and spiked all the way up to $2.46. that's a two-month high in natural gas. what precipitated this spike, traders pointing to the fact
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that even though we saw selling last week and dips unable to get to the recent lows, new buyers pouring in and fueling up the natural gas prices. we have seen rather bullish statistics on storage levels over the last several weeks. we're going to get another report on thursday and perhaps that will continue the momentum that we're seeing because of the warm temperatures that we're seeing in texas. trying to trade the gold, taking a cut today. it happened here on cnbc yesterday let's all recall what they said. >> gold is now 1600 and berkshire is 120,000 but you can take a broader example.
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you can coup to it and carress it and 100 years from now you will not have anything in between. >> gold is a great thing to sew into your garments in vienna back in the 1930s but civilized people don't buy gold. they invest in productive businesses. >> did warren say fondle it, bill? >> over to you, maria. >> did warren say fondle gold? >> he used that word. yes, he did. >> so are these two on to something? thinking that he knows better that buffett and likes gold, but john says there's more selling to come. he's the capital president. thank you for joining us. >> thanks for having me, maria. >> let's talk about gold here. clearly, you know, the gold has
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really been, in many cases, the fear trade. the prices have shot up. what do you think are the big catalysts to get gold to keep going higher if you are on the buy side? dar r darren? >> i think you need to look at the u.s. and as well as europe and japan to continue to pump into the system and i think that there's a fair bit of that to come. as we saw the economic data out of europe, the recovery is not tepid at best. there's a bit more to come out of europe and if you're going to continue to get systematic bets out of europe, the fed is there as well. >> john, you're looking at the dollar as well. if it continues higher, that's not good for gold, is it? >> that's a great point, bill. if you want to look at monetary accommodation, this is 2012, not
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2011. the central bank can help things. overall, gold is a technical market. it sold down with the concerns of europe overnight and if gold is trading like a growth market, they need to correlate it things like with the aussie dollar. >> john, what's your level there, then? how much lower can gold go, then? >> gold can trade very sharply. >> darren, you feel that we're at a bottom for gold, at least you think we are? >> i feel as my colleague on my left just said, gold is a very technical market. 1600 is a very big level for the commodity. i think if we break through there, it will be very negative and you can see the levels that he suggests. i don't think it's a bad place
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to get long given the liquidation that we've seen over the last few days. >> if you want to understand the context of this gold bull market, take a look at the gold markets. they are down 20% and you're going to be very hard-pressed to find a very long-standing gold bull market with them underperforming like they have. >> if equities go down the second half of the year, does gold go up and in the reverse, if equities go up, would that be a negative for gold? >> i think we need to understand why equities are going higher. if they are going higher because of solid growth, that could sell the market higher. if equities go lower because of lower growth, that may keep monetary stimulus in place. >> i just think gold has had an identity problem for the last few years. whether it's a hitch or a risk
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asset and they can't decide what they are doing when they are buying it right now. gentlemen, thank you both. good conversation on gold. >> thank you. we are heading towards the close. ten minutes before the "closing bell" sounds. market is down off of the lows. >> we managed to find at least one stock that has hit a sweet spot with investors. you might not like why the stock is trading higher but it's at an all-time high today. >> will the blockbuster "the avengers" be the superhero? we talk to bob iger next. that bringing you better technology helps make you a better investor. with our revolutionary new e-trade 360 dashboard
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all right. welcome back to the "closing bell." the ceo of yahoo! continues to make headlines. seema mody has the details. what are we hearing now? >> in response to the activist hedge fund third point, yahoo!'s board of directors has announced that they have formed a special committee to conduct a thorough analysis of scott thompson's academic credentials. the committee will look into the fact and circumstances related
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to that. taking a step back investors pulled out of risky assets. the main concern today is europe. back to you. >> seema, thank you so much. six minutes before the "closing bell" sounds. as we approach the close for the day, the nasdaq, best percentage mover. it's threatening to go positive, nasdaq well off the lows. wynn resorts has been the laggards. the volatility index off the highs of the session. it hit the highest level in a month. now a 19.26. bill, over to you at the post. >> maria, it's a down day on wall street and not all stocks are trading lower. look at this.
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hershey is up sharply today. another 1% gain and average daily volume is about a million shares. it's doing a million shares here at the new york stock exchange. no company-specific news out but the company is surging 9%. blowout report a couple of days ago. and margins increasing as well you compare that with the s&p up 100%. >> how sweet it is. in an environment where we have pricing power as well. up next, we have the closing countdown. and then after the bell, a top strategist explains why we may
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not know where stocks are headed long term until after an election in november. we've got a big interview coming your way from the nation's capital. we're live with john boehner. that interview coming up after the bell tonight. >> announcer: coming up, maria tackles the hot button issues of the day with house speaker john boehner. >> when you look at the problems that europe has from a financial standpoint -- >> announcer: don't miss the one-on-one interview coming up on the "closing bell."
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so who's in control now, mayans? . okay. heading towards the close, a rather different story than the story we are telling this morning. the dow is going to be down for a fifth straight session and that puts us with a focus on europe and it began in greece once again. a 20-year low for the greek stock market and they are trying
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to shore up the government and provide aid from the international community. there you go. lower stock market in greece. what does that do to the euro? for a time it was below $1.30 on the euro. here we are at $1.30 right now. when you push the euro lower, the dollar goes higher. what happens? risk assets go lower. that was the case today. this is a 198-point decline and we've been cutting back ever since. here we are down just 63 points as we head towards the close. the risk off trade very much in evidence in the treasuries. a strong day price-wise with the treasury markets and the note auction went very well. they will auction off ten-year notes tonight. the yield down 1.48%. it was below 1.82 off the lows of the session. oil is very interesting t continues to trade lower today.
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down $112 on brent. the kuwaiti oil minister feels that $100 is a fair value. does that mean we're destined to go lower on brent? that would be very good for gasoline consumers because it's tied to that price right there. and there's wti brent crude at $97, down half a percent. gold, we talked about that earlier. darren, our bull on that, is hoping -- he's begging the market to hold at $1600 an ounce. if we show you the price, it's at 1607 right now. he's hoping it goes back to 1650. we'll wait and see. the fear indicator of the vix was in the yellow flag territory at 20 but we've come well off of that now and it's starting to collapse. i bring in adam parker, a defensive day here. do you like utilities at these levels? >> the two sectors are overweight and it's health care and utilities. those are top two.
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so they are less likely to be missed dramatically. we like pharmaceuticals where the yields are good. >> so you're going to stay with those defensive sectors? >> sure. if the market goes lower, they are going to outperform it. i would say, on the other side, probably the machinery select industrials and consumer discretionary stocks, those are underweight ideas because the analyst estimates are way too high. >> what is going on? i mean, the other day we had a monster rally on better than expected earnings and then it faded. today we have a big selloff and then it comes back again. what is this market telling us? >> it's telling you to be defensive. everyone likes yield. i'm not so excited about yield. i'm going to be buying growth
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