>> i'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money." thank you so much to the ctia wireless people here in new orleans. i'm jim cramer. i'll see you tomorrow. hey, larry, what do you have for us? >>. good evening, i'm larry kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." the president unveils a to do list and he call it is a post-it note. great, the post-it note president reducing economy to tiny issues instead of big picture issues. what about the lack of the budget deal, what about corporate tax reform, what about simpson-bowles, what about the keystone pipeline? what about entitlements? i'm talking serious big issues that will affect the future of our great country, not little post-it issues.

the greek drama continues. radical leftist greeks threaten to rip up the currency deal, take over the banks and that sent the market in a tail spin. >> we recovered our bearings. the dow finished down less than 80 points. felt like it could have been a lot worse. investors raising cash, selling gold sharply and oil down on the markets. other news for you, larry. we'll have a whole rundown in 15 minutes. >> and, folks, ron paul says he is not ready to endorse mitt military but he is ready to sinks fed. he's my special get tonight. but first, president obama unveiled an election to-do list for congress. it's failed to gain any traction. we're joined now live from washington with the details. good evening, eamon.

>> the president in full bore election mode. he traveled to albany, new york to unveil a list of priorities that he said could fit on a post-it note. he's calling on congress to pass tax credits, to include mortgage relief for homeowners, tax credit for clean energy projects and creation of a veterans job core. the joked the list is so short and could fist on a post-it note and jibed congress a little bit as well. take a listen to what the president has to say. >> it's about the size of a post-it note so every member of congress can have time to read it and they can glance at it every so often. hopefully we'll just be checking off the list, just like when michelle gives me a list, i check it off. >> the president seemed to anticipate the criticism that in

an election year there's not a lot congress is likely to pass on capitol hill. he said because it's an election year, it's not an excuse to do nothing. >> what happened happened to big picture, pro-growth ideas? let's go to howard dean and romney supporter and former missouri senator jim talent. mr. talent, welcome back. have not seen new a while. to me the problems of our economy and our country, whether it's budget deficits, job, economic growth, entitlements, simpson-bowles, this doesn't fit on a post-it note. this language makes me furious. what does the president think we are, just a bench of dummies? >> larry, it's hard not to conclude this is just an attempt to distract the voters of the president's policies of of the past that have failed and are squeezing the middle class.

median income down 43% of the year. people are choosing between buying gas and paying for lessons for their kids. these small ball ideas, it's very disappointing. it's hard to conclude they'relue not an attempt to distract people from what's really going on. >> governor howard dean, i really hate to say this but this is not serious stuff coming from the president. you have to agree with me. with all the problems this country has, he actually gets up there and says it's all going to be fixed with a post-it note? howard, come on, you're better than that. >> the problem, larry, is that the republicans have prevented him from passing anything. mitch mcconnell said the only priority he had was to get barack obama out. presidency. not much of a platform to run on for the republicans. he's got to start with a post-it note. they're not going to pass anything substantial. if you start giving corporations tax credits for bringing jobs back home, that's a good idea. if you keep giving hip tax credits for sending job offshore, that's a mistake. i think there's some good stuff

in here. the republicans out to show good faith and pass this stuff and maybe we can get to the bigg ite items you're concerned about. >> the problem is congress has guantanamo b given the president what he wanted. we're going to have a deficit and this is the administration's projections, $1.3 trillion. the huge regulatory measures that have been passed, i mean, i wish congress had given him less. you mentioned some this evenings that could be done. i think on a bipartisan basis that would actually move the economy forward, passing the corporate tax rate, reducing that to 25%, opening up energy production. why shouldn't both parties be for that? >> the keystone pipeline, look, howard dean, the house has sent over a lot of legislation. they've sent over business tax cuts, they've sent over the keystone pipeline, they've sent over the ryan budget. if you have don't like the ryan budget, which is essentially a

larger volume of simpson-bowles, if you don't like it, at least vote on it, howard dean. that's the problem. the senate has completely clogged up the legislative process and the policies of the country and you can't deal with that on a post-it note. >> larry, the house is run by nut jobs who have taken away people's insurance for birth control bills and passed over ridiculous stuff, defended planned parenthood. why are we talking about that kind of stuff in a serious election year? we ought to talk about doing some of those things. >> howard, if you describe them as nut jobs -- that's up to you. >> the republicans screwed up the keystone pipeline. >> why won't they vote on it? if you don't like what the house is sending over -- howard dean, if you don't like what the house is sending over, fine. you and i disagree on a lot of issues. if they don't agree on thei is

issues then have a vote. obama doesn't want to aggress that stuff and neither does the democratic senate. >> the problem is mcconnell doesn't let it come to the floor. all they can bring to the floor is a bunch of nutty stuff. i think we can all agree on that we'll have an election and things will be different after the election. >> senator talent, you were there until very recently. what the heck is going on here? >> harry reid is not bringing a budget to the floor. you have a right to bring the budget to the floor. that can't be filibustered. he can't get 51 votes for it because they're not trying to confront the real issue, in particular entitlement reform. we need presidential leadership. governor romney has offered extensive, comprehensive and very sensible entitlement reform. we did it in the 90s, reform welfare and medicare, made those programs better and save money. there are at least some of this agenda that we could work on our bipartisan basis.

it's a very different vision, president obama, big spending, more government, those policies have failed and then governor romney's speech today about where he wants to go. >> howard dean, i understand we have disagreements. why wouldn't the president -- there is such a consensus view in washington about the need for corporate tax reform which many. economists believe in you lowered the corporate tax base and got rid of deductions would be the most powerful pro growth, job creator possible. why doesn't the president go out on a limb and talk about that on his post-it note? >> because you have to pay for it and the republicans are unwilling to pay for it, as they were unwilling to pay for every tax cut under george bush, which left us with deficits. i oppose what the democrats have done, i really oppose what the republicans have done. you can't cut taxes unless you're willing to cut spending and they're never willing to do

that. you want to cut the corporate tax rate, tell me how you're going to pay for it. you better close some of the millionaire loopholes and the republicans have been unwilling to do that. >> your man mitt romney has a proposal to lower the corporate tax to 25%. how would he pay for it? that's howard dean's challenge. please answer. >> there's an extensive set of spending reforms, entitlement reforms, for example, sending medicaid back to the states. it's called -- that's what we did with welfare reform. we ended one a better program and you can save over a trillion dollars over ten years with that. he has more specific proposals for spending reform than anybody else. the key, though, larry is without prosperity, growth and job creation, we can't balance the budget. we're not going to get that with more of what we've had the last several years. >> thank you very much. we appreciate it. i tried to take your challenge

up. former senator jim talent, i appreciate it. up next on kudlow, where's the endorsement of mitt romney? well, ron paul says no way, no how. congressman ron paul is going to join me next. ahead greece's new leftist leader says the bailout deal is dead. markets swooned but they did come back really strong. they came back a hundred points. is this a buying opportunity? and obama is losing his lead on the economy. the country seems mad as hell. will independent voters and swing states take that to the polls? and don't forget, whether it's the united states or europe or greece, free market capitalism always the best path to prosperity. i'm larry kudlow. "the kudlow report" will be right back.

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congressman ron paul is not afraid to stir up trouble. he's going to be my special guest in just a moment. but while rick santorum came out to endorse mitt romney last night, you're about to hear on ron paul on why he will not endorse mitt romney. paul still hunting for delegates. but first he led an abolish the fed hearing today on capitol hill.

eamon is back. >> don't forget ron paul is still in this race. here in washington there's been a lot of speculation over the past couple of days of exactly what ron paul hopes to accomplish by staying in this race, and one of the things people are really focused on is when will he get a chance to speak at the republican convention in florida this summer? will he get that coveted primetime slot? clearly this campaign for ron paul is all about projecting his ideas out in the republican electorate and on tv to the mass media. he continued to do that today with this hearing on capitol hill about the role of the fed and the dual mandate. take a listen to some of his skeptical comments on capitol hill today, larry. >> i'm sort of pretty much of a skeptic on what we get from the fed. i think they generally can find an excuse to do whatever they want to do.

>> no resolution on what to do with the fed as ron paul has said, he wants to end the fed. but, larry, that hearing today generating a lot of conversation up on capitol hill. back to you. >> all right, thanks very much. let's bring in our very special guest, republican presidential candidate ron paul. he's a congressman from texas. congressman paul, as always, it's a pleasure to have you on the show. i want to talk about your monetary hearing in just a moment, but politics are swirling around. if you'll permit me, rick santorum finally endorsed mitt romney last night. congressman paul, when will you endorse mitt romney? >> i'm still thinking about that. not soon because i'm still working very hard to maximize the number of delegates. if you watch the news, every weekend we seem to do a lot better in picking up states. it may turn out we're going to end up winning iowa and we've won a couple of these other states. i'm not thinking about that as

much as what kind of presence we'll have, what kind of people we'll have there and what kind of influence we'll have on the platform in tampa. >> well, there are a lot of reports you're picking up delegates, particularly in these caucus states. what's the end game here? do you want to try to deny the mitt romney the nomination? do you want to exact some policy or political price for your endorsement? tell me the end game, sir. >> well, i don't know the end game yet because the votes haven't been counted. no, my goal isn't a negative goal that, is to stop somebody. my goal is to do my very best and to galvanize the support i have. you do know we're having tremendous turnouts. we can get up to 4,000, 5,000, up to 8,000 people on campuses and they're very worried. i want to take that and make sure it's a positive policy. the more presence we have, the

better chance we'll have to return to sound money and a more sensible foreign policy and maybe do something with this deficit one of these days. >> you have spoken to mitt romney particularly about your goals of sound money and the austrian free market model? i would think romney is sympathetic. have you spoken to him and said, governor, i'd like to see these things in the republican platform? has that been going on? >> no, it really hasn't. we haven't had that opportunity. we run into each other in the campaign. most of it been more friendly, family-oriented conversation. never anything into a deep discussion. of course on the surface and in the debates i found out, as he probably did, too, we don't have a whole lot of precise agreements, you know, on our platform when it comes to foreign policy or monetary policy. but, you know, maybe tax policy. we're more -- it's more about it than just tax policy. we want to deal with the role of government and what we're

supposed to be doing and this deficit, horrendous, and how that is connected to the monetizing of debt by the federal reserve. >> there's a rasmussen poll out gets 44%, obama gets 39%, ron paul gets 13%. i ask this question because in prior interviews you've said to me quite plainly you're not anticipating a third party run. is that still your point of view? >> i don't have any plans for that. the interesting thing it looks like some of my votes come from the independents and democrats and republicans all worry if you run third party, what will it do to the party have i to endorse, and i don't want to run the republican party.

the flophilosophy of freedom is appealing to democrats. there's nothing about my appeal only being to republicans. i thought that was an interesting poll. we've had a couple other polls where i'm doing even a little better than that one. >> let me ask finally on money and sound money and the dollar and gold, these are things that you and i both hold dear as we've discussed down through the years. in your hearing today, did you present your bill to abolish the federal reserve? >> i did. we didn't concentrate on that because we had two other members of congress and we had a total of six bills to deal with. we had a broad discussion. one thing it did was sort of drifted into the discussion on how you make the fomc, how you make it up and whether or not they are approved by the senate. but also there was a big discussion about the dual mandate, which you know about both unemployment and pricing. that is less interesting to

commodity standard people because we let the market deal with that but we had two professors there that defended commodity money. i thought it was fantastic. one thing there seemed to be an agreement on was no matter which part of the political spectrum or economic spectrum they came from, everybody seemed to be very concerned about world economy, especially in europe and what's going on right now. we in the austrian school believe it has a lot to do with central planning through the central banks. >> congressman ron paul, thank you very much for your time, sir. good luck in all that you do. >> thank you. >> there you have it. you may have seen during our interview with ron paul we have beaking news. republican senator richard lugar has lost a primary battle and has been unseated by tea party candidate richard murdoch. lugar has been called the georgia washington of modern indiana but the tea party flexes its muscle. for tomorrow night, is a tea

party takeover of the senate now within reach? senator jim demint will be my guest. ahead, greek leftist politicians declare the bailout dead null and void, the markets drop. but why did the markets snap back a good hundred points? we'll get a market drill down next up on kudlow.

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. green mountain coffee shook up its board late this afternoon on the day when the market hit a pothole. so brian shactman is with us. good evening again. >> more drama. green mountain's chairman are out. apparently they own a brokerage firm and were selling green mountains shares in a manner "inconsistent with the company's internal trading polici the stock rallied 8.5% today but is down as can you see after hours trading. disney the big after-market earning star. the studio took a drubbing on the "john carter" flop but

"avengers" is move that are a movie franchise. the market got on the down elevator of the open this morning following the tsunami of uncertainty that made it across the atlantic from greece. i like to mix metaphors. and disappointment from mcdonald's. the dow was down 108 points and we bounced. not enough to goes positive. but 576 pount in the dow felt like a mini rally. gold finished down $34. oil continues its slide as well. the fifth day in a row that it was down, partially driven by a stronger dollar and all that talk of greece potentially exiting the euro. both are trading slightly higher electronically right now. tomorrow earnings from the likes of macy's, toyota, cisco and newscorp and then earnings season is pretty much done. larry, back to you. >> thanks, brian shactman. so with stocks bouncing back, what if investors had a thought

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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm larry kudlow. in this half hour, jobs and the economy are stalling. independents moving into mitt romney's column and so are some key swing states. we're going to bring you the up to the minute map. also, i've looked over the numbers and i have to ask where are the vanishing workers and what's washington going to do to avoid the fiscal cliff? i'm calling up noted labor economist ed lazear to explain it all. first of all, the euro fell below, 30 international markets roiled. one of the p those in the greek election said he wants to renege on the agreement keeping the company afloat. michelle caruso-cabrera, who is

this guy? >> his party is the coalition for the radical left. because he came in second in the election, today he was given three days to try to form the coalition government in greece. he announced he wants to abandon all the measures the country has taken to comply with the massive bailout that has given the country $2 billion of euros. he wants to raise salaries, raise pensions and give more power back to the unions. if he were to be successful, the country would likely stop receiving bailout agreements, forcing the country to abandon the euro and revert to its own currency. today is the first time he's been this close to having any real power. informed political observers believe he will not be able to form a government and what is far more likely, yet another election in june. it's going to be a long summer, larry. >> many thanks, michelle. appreciate it. is all this drum and drag a

buying tonight in the making? that's my question. let's turn to our distinguished investors for some stock market work. we have keith mccullough, david and our pal jack. jack, i don't think this crazy left-wing guy is going to get any government, they're not going to let him near the government. i think gold is falling because warren buffett said to sell gold and i think stocks are in the middle of a weak correction because the job numbers stank and ism numbers, forget greece, focus on the u.s. >> i think you're right, larry. on top of that, think of it. you've got the king dollar back. one thing to look at is the fact that you have had a 20% move in equities since november of last year and a 10% move in the doul lar at the same time. one of the things i kept hearing from european portfolio managers

this morning is i'm selling what i can, not what i want to. that was important because what they are doing is preparing for what is probably a downgrade that is coming, which is going to require them to repatriate capital back home. it is in essence one big margin call that we experienced out of europe this morning. having said that, we're only 5% off off the highs. >> that's the key point. hang on. keith, what do you make of this? the dollar is going up, gold and oil going down, by the way retail gasoline price goesis go down. are you bullish or bearish? you like the dollar. dollar looks great. would you buy this correction? >> at a price. up got to get the price right, timing matters. if you look at the construct of why growth actually slowed and we walked through this vehemently at the end of march, if you have quantitative easing policy that, is going to get the dollar down and oil prices up. that's exactly what happened. you had a disappointment on gdp and employment. the only way out of this is to

get -- if you want a post-it note -- you need to get rid of ben bernanke. >> retail gasoline, what did i quote it, $3.76, triple a nationwide the peak was almost $4. that's a wee bit of a tax cut, keith. is that good? in other words, when is it time for you, strong dollar guy like myself, like david, like jack, we all want a strong dollar, dollar looks pretty steady, when do you buy back this correction? >> typically when people are freaking out. we put up a note today, 1349 in the s&p 500, which the timing was lucky. between 1280 and 1349 i think it's interesting enough. but it's got to be based on strong dollar. late in the day goldman came up with this about qe. get that out of the way. if you go back to the drug,

we're going to have a problem. >> you don't think this left wing greek whack job is going to take power, do you? >> i don't think he'll be able to form a coalition now. they'll have to work more on it. in the meantime the craash is running out in greece. that will force them to make decisions on who gets paid when anybody pays their taxes. there's just x amount of euros in greece. they're running out of them. they'll have to decide whether to pay the police, the army or the pensioners. and that's a healthy choice. the only thing that matters to me, lots of things matter but the critical issue for markets is whether the euro is at risk of breaking apart. and i think that risk has been going down for quite a few months since the end of last year. that's good for the global outlook. >> so jack, i come back to you with the exact same thought, a thought experiment. forget greece. put it aside. forget the euro.

it will be what it will be. the ecb will bail it out. i want to know what your outlook is for the american stock market and the american economy. jack. >> larry, if i said to you everything that was going on in europe right now is actually bullish for u.s. equities, what would you think? everything that is happening right now in europe is bullish for u.s. equities, driving everybody into dollar denominated assets. keith, you were talking about how qe 2 is affecting the markets. i've just told you you've had the dollar go up 10% versus the euro currency, yet we've still seen our market go up and just recently seen a correction in commodities. this is a rally that is fundamentally strong -- >> it's a correction within a broader rally. dave, did you want to say something real quick? >> i want to be cautious on saying that the dollar is what's driving this. i would like the fed to put in a strong and stable dollar policy. they haven't done that. so i think what the equity

market is doing is reacting to good earnings and the view that the euro is not going to break up so we can probably get through this. >> keith mccullough, i'll give you the last word for investment strategy this evening. what do we do? >> ron paul introduced an interesting thing today. strong dollar equals down gas prices. that's it. >> i've said that from day one. david malpass has said that from day one. we agree the greek left wing whack job is not going to get the job. he can go and dance the night away with the drachma because that's not coming back either and let's keep our eye on the united states story because that's what matters. up next on kudlow, i got one for you. where did the vanishing workers go? maybe they drove off a fiscal

cliff. we'll ask eddie lazear. and still ahead, the obama economy is going nowhere and america is mad as hell. independent and swing states are now switching to romney. take a look at the polls. it's fascinating. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] this is the at&t network...

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after last week's miserable april jobs report, president obama spoke out today blaming congress for what appears to be a stalling labor market. take a listen. >> the only way we can accelerate the job creation that takes place on a scale that is needed is bold action from congress. because of the rekcovery act, we've created over 4 million jobs, we've created hundreds of thousands of jobs each month over the last several months so we're making progress. >> oh, i know, i know. at this same stage by the way during the ronald reagan recovery in which i participated we were creating 9.5 million jobs, about 400,000 per month. but here's a bigger question going into this story. where is this vanishing workforce going?

are they all just falling over a fiscal cliff or what? let's bring in ed lazear, distinguished economist from stanford university, former chairman of president bush's council of economic advisers. ed lazear, these guys are vanishing. i'm going to be honest with you. if you look at the numbers, employment population ratio, labor participation rate, it didn't just happen under obama. it started under the bush years. where are they going and why is this happening? >> you have two trends going on. one is a long-term trend, which is labor force participation of females peaked in the late 90s. it's tapered off and turned around a little bit. that's part of it. the other part of the demographics is we have an aging work frz and you have more people moving into retirement. those are the long-term trends. people are dropping out of the labor force because they are so discouraged with the state of

the economy. >> why? americans are inherently optimistic. you're smarter than i am. i just want to say i've been reading professor john cochran of chicago, our friend john taylor. a lot of people are saying social security district is too easy to get. unemployment benefits, too long to get. food stamps too easy to get. we're paying them not to work. i don't want to be hard hearted about it but a lot of people think that's the problem. >> i think that's part of the issue. whether that's the significant issue i think is really something that we're going to be debating for years. but what is apparent right now is that people are dropping out of the labor market because the amount of hiring that's going down is just not up to par. you know, the data that i always like to look at, you know this, larry, i'm kind of a wonk on this but the data i like to look at are the jolts data. that tells you how many people were hired in any given month. while hires are up a little bit

from where they were say a year ago, they fell last month and we're still well below where we need to be for a healthy recovery. we've got 4.3 million hires per month, we should be at 5 million hires per month. there just aren't jobs available in the same proportion we need to see in a growing economy. >> too many anti-growth policies, i will grant that and i will continue to blame obama. what about this fiscal cliff, ed? help me out. nobody wants to raise taxes i think. there's also spending cuts. and i do not want to unwind the spending cuts, i don't want to reopen it. i think finally there's a sequester, finally we're going to take money out of the the budget. milton friedman said if you lower spending as a shart of gdp, that's a tax cut. why shunned we let the spending cuts go through? >> once you adopt the language of the fiscal cliff, just the

voke cab larry itself puts tax increases and spending cuts in the same basket and they're not the same. tax increases first of all have very significant long-term effects on economic growth. spending cuts also have long-term implications for economic growth but they're positive, not negative. so i think the big concern is the keynesian concern, it's that if we raise taxes and cut government spending, we will have short-term declines in economic growth. but the problem is we haven't had any good quarters since the recovery began anyway. >> we spent $850 billion for nothing. this is the worst recovery in post world war ii history and part of it is spending has gone from 20% to 25% of gdp. if we cut that back, the economy will do better. so let's not raise taxes, let's lower spending. >> i agree with you. that's a long-run strategy but the long run is here -- >> the long run is here. ed lazear, out there in

california. thank you. >> so 23 million people are looking for work and we're approaching $6 trillion in debt. are independent voters and swing state voters both going over to romney's side? we've got an all-star kudlow round table coming up. please stay with us. we'll be right back. who helped us weigh and understand all our options. for me cancer was as scary as a fastball is to some of these kids. but my coach had hit that pitch before. turning data into useful answers. we're 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. [ man announcing ] what we created here. what we achieved here. what we learned here.

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george soros and other major

liberal donors are opening up their wallets to inject $1 million to aid democrat election chances this fall. john harwood is going to tell us all about the monetary details. good evening, john. >> good evening, larry. they're reading the same polls that you're talking about showing that swing states are very close, the national race is very close and so george soros, one of the major financeers of democratic get out the votes advertising in 2004 is stepping up to provide financing along with other liberal donors. soros has pledged $1 million to each of two major democratic groups. all told, liberal donors are talking about raising $100 million to finance democratic get out the vote efforts. to some degree television advertise persian gulf that that's expected to be dwarfed by the 3d 00 million that republican groups are talking about raising and it's all enough money to make john boehner today say the financial arrangements of this election have simply gotten out of

control. >> the campaign system frankly is out of control. the amount of money that is flowing into these races are numbers that are beyond anybody's imagination. >> of course that's not going to stop it. president obama spending much of his time raising money for the campaign, mitt romney can be expected to respond in kind and certainly those republican super pacs are doing better than the the democratic super pacs. >> john harwood, thanks very much. 23 million people either unemployed, underemployed or just plain quit looking for work. median middle class income is falling. and we are approaching a $6 trillion increase in debt under president obama. is obama cooked? in fact, he's so cooked mitt romney has now taken a commanding lead among independents. seems to be gaining grounds in swing states. let's talk. dan, author of "better,

stronger, faster, the myth of financial decline." heather wilson, i want to ask you about the monetary story. you're running for the senate. is money outrageous? is it easy to raise? is it hard to raise? you heard john harwood describe it. up heard john boehner beat up on it. anybody can do it. >> for fund-raisers for campaign it is. i worry more about small businesses and whether able to get loans to create the jobs where wealth really comes from and where jobs are, which is from small business and rules that dodd-frank is putting in place is killing our small bank. we have banks in new mexico that are not loaning to residential loans anymore. if you wanted 2 million, you go to walls fargo. if you needed 35,000 for a new

truck for the paint company -- >> you mean for your small business. >> i'm talking about what it's really about. >> jimmy, the ibd poll came out and romney really surging on independents. there's a lot of short-term, near-term data. ism know dan is an optimist long run, you may be right. short run it looks pretty bad. obama's had a bad month, hasn't he? >> he's had a real bad month. if the economy for the rest of the year is the way it was in january and february, i think obama has a good chance of winning. if it's the way it was in march and april, i think romney is your guy. if it's in between, let me know how the debates go in the october and i'll give you the winner. but more of this, this is a stagnation economy, income is going nowhere, unemployment rates not generating very many jobs. >> vanishing workforce. you disagree with, don't you?

>> i think the march figures are going to be revised upwards, there's a great tendency to revise all the jobs numbers upwards. want to talk about a swing state, talk about ohio. >> what about april numbers. i'm asking a serious question. >> for real. >> what about ism service rating -- >> growth is slowing from earlier in the year. >> look, i want to be optimistic. i was in the 3% camp, dan gross, but i've not down shifted to the 2% camp. >> how about 2.5. one data point that's good is auto production and auto sales. ford is increasing production, adding extra shifts. up know where they make a lot of cars? ohio. when you make cars in this country, it's not just the gm and chrysler, it's the supply chain, it's the logistics. it's the dealers. that is a pretty powerful force. >> new mexico is a swing state. >> it is. >> you don't have auto plants in new mexico, do you?

>> no, no. if a state look yours, if your economy goes up and is improving, does the president get credit? do republicans get hurt by that? >> i think there's not much the president can do to change direction and people's attitudes about what he's accomplished because everything that's coming out of washington today is hurting the ability of people to get jobs. 40% of the kid who graduated from college in the last three years still don't have full-time work but they got $25,000 in loans, the cost of food sis up,i paid $3.74 at the pump. >> down from 4 i might add. it's one of the few forecasts i've gotten right. >> we've got the post-it note. here we have the longest period of 8% unemployment since the great depression, real incomes are have gone nowhere for two years and we have the post-it

note. flat for two years. >> for 13 years. >> i thought he fixed the economy. so he's not fixed the economy. >> let me tell you a story -- >> no doubt there's long-term suffering. i would say by september the cake is baked, right? any data point, even if it's a really good one -- >> there's nothing he can do. probably right now there's nothing he can do. >> the econnometric model is not looking so hot. >> it's losing. >> can i just ask you -- >> you weigh that against the sort of demographic calculus -- >> let me just get these swing states in. i don't have new mexico as a swing state. maybe i should. have i missouri, nevada, florida, arizona, north carolina. the reason i have that list is those are states that have had a very hard time economically, right, and therefore people

think they've shifted out of obama's column from 2008 to romney's column. does it work that way? if the states are doing badly, does it work that they want a change and the incumbent gets punished? is that how it works? >> i think you can't look at the big macro picture. you have to look at state-by-state picture. they have high unemployment, little income growth, a huge number of thomof home underwate especially florida. that doesn't look like much of a recovery. >> it's a question of whether -- arizona, very republican state. the only reason it's thought of is because of the huge increase in hispanic voters. you look at the trends of younger people tending to vote, nonwhite people tending to vote for democrats. >> the last three months in new mexico, there have been twice as many republicans registered to vote than democrats. >> why is that? >> because people are

dissatisfied what they've seen come out of washington. >> is it economics? >> it is. it's jobs. >> is it the slowdown affecting new mexico? >> 7:30 in the morning on thursday morning a guy comes walking done and brings his truck into the place where i have my office and he goes door to door and he comes and talks to me, he's a veteran, out of the military for two years, he's got a wife and child. he's got a job that's paying the bills but he's worried about his wife's job and trying to find a new one. 7:30 in morning walking through a half-empty strip mall looking for work. >> what do you tell him? >> i tell him thank you for your service. it's going to get better. he says, gosh, they said it was going to get better when this president came in but it's not getting better. >> it will get better about 2018. 2019. >> i'm dan gross's optimistic camp. i just don't know when the big turn is going to come.

>> we have turned. just the wrong direction. >> i don't see in evidence. that's my problem. >> i told jimmy he had to read the book and he did. >> send me the book. heather, jim, dan, running full time. that's it for tonight's show. tomorrow a tea party takeover of the senate? jim demint will be my special guest to tell us all about it.

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