despite many pessimistic views out there -- >> if we get all the views that we proposed and were passed by congress implemented into law, it should prevent this kind of stuff from happening. >> jpmorgan led banks higher. if you knew where to look. >> i don't hear anybody talking about zing a. >> the big action after hours as the unveiling of the wall street

w big wigs. >> your thumb works better if you know the correct response. >> no time. no trade to waste. it's time for fast money. >> live from times square, let's get to the after hours action. jc penny is crushed below 12% and they said they would discontinue their diffident. this is not much. >> i think this is worse than not much. a very big revenue miss. when you have a retailer and a big miss, it is nearly impossible to get earnings. that is so tough to come by and a big miss like that. it doesn't bode well. however, that been said, i think they will give him a lot more

time to put a new strategy in place. this said so far it's not working. still down $4. >> just to go down the road, they had a meeting in april and could have taken down significantly. we come in at minus 18.9 expecting 15, it's a tough environment and when you add that to the back of people like macy's and kohl's, the margin is there because of the internet business because they are trying to win and compete. they are getting hit. the fair and square pricing at jc pen set other thing johnson has to really either explain better or people don't think you can pull it off. at the end of the day, people expected to have a discounted format and now that fair and square pricing is not enough. >> don't even do it. >> very strong.

>> the operating margins were down 1.5% and that's disastrous. if there is a silver lining here which i will try to find, purchase was down almost 10%. this is sort of a kitchen sink type of quarter. on top of that, there is a 24% interest. a lot of folks will take profits and equal amount of folks will lean again. you will have a 45 to 50 million share date which you have seen before on jcp. i wouldn't say to go raging into it tomorrow, but by the end of the week, tomorrow is wednesday and by friday, they may set up interesting for a long trade. >> the transformation is the top versus the bottom line, but the opportunity is to look at who is winning shares. share gain in essence at jcpenney's loss.

the macy's acknowledged gains, but tomorrow you will get earnings from target. it clearly is winning some market share here at the expense of jcpenney. accessories and power will be strong. any type of sell off in target. i think that's where the trade opportunity is. >> we heard that from a lot of analysts in terms of footprint and overlap. macy's has the most overlap and stands the most to gain in terms of market share grab. >> one thing is you don't have to play. if you think about it, you have two big holders and we have seen what can happen in the retailer when you have not that big of a float and sears can levitate forever. i don't think you need to play long or short here. >> in fact you are taking a long position and increasing in macy's. >> we actually reentered macy's having sold it too early down about 9% or so and reentered right here. >> how much of this is the notion that macy's is gaining

market share? >> i didn't realize they would be quite this bad. nobody thought it would be great, but macy's i think they are executing the valuation and it is so much more attractive by a lot. >> macy's since september have been pull backs not necessarily of this magnitude along the way, but pull backs the entire way. each has been an opportunity. it's a little more pronounced, but they said we specifically asked about macy's and where was the opportunity? she said right here. on a lousy tape, macy's up 1%. >> we are getting a peek into the trade books. the filings with the sec that are becoming public. berkshire hathaway with general motors and viacom and wal-mart and wells fargo, lowering intel and craft as well as dollar general. we have the breaking news and more on the holdings.

brian? >> they don't move a lot. we don't get big swings, but they revealed a new position. a little more optimistic on american iron. that sucks coming down off the ipo price. what's more interesting is that buffett has that exemption and what we have got in the filing is essentially a confidentiality notice. we don't know what that means, but some of the folks here like our own alex who has been following buffett for years said generally that means that buffett is accumulating a stake in something and didn't want people to know. he has the special exemption. there was a little bit of a hint and a mystery machine going on that buffett might be buying something up and i leave it to you and your crack team to go through all stocks right now and figure out what that is. >> we are doing that.

we did that. that's very 90 seconds ago. in terms of general motors, would you follow buffett into a general motors? we haven't been huge fans of the stock. >> i own it and i might have let warren in there. it's been a painful trade. listen to the gm ceo this morning. the european business is a problem. i don't think it will be turned around. these guys are unleashing 26 new brands at valuation in a world where people are betting against cyclical stocks. when birk berkshire takes a position, it's not on anybody in the space, but berkshire is not trading the stock. he is making a call on the management team and on a devaluation and that is what we have at gm. >> i think tim is 100% right.

this was a $39 stock january of 11. you have to wonder under what circumstances does it. valuation is interesting and your risk reward sets up as fals. you are looking at north of 28 and you are risking $20 on the downside. to me that's probably fair at this juncture. >> i hate to be the 1 to bring this up, but how much do we invest given his performance and he's a long-term investor, but he hasn't been up there in terms of the returns. do you follow him into a general motors which has problems and europe which is a trouble spot? >> few people as warren buffett said, he allocated the $60 million into an asset. i don't remember which stock, but very few people have the financial wherewithal to approach from that standpoint. you get a significant pull back

like you are getting right now of close to 5%. the evidence suggests you have to be far more tactical. i think he afforded a luxury in terms of duration and investment overall. he invests forever. i think very few people would do that. >> i totally agree and i think the luxury he gives sitting at the desk, this is not a broken company or a company that believes in the turn around. i don't care what happens and possibly even the next three years. if this company has been righted, this is a market that is not a market for people to sit and fall asleep and take a b bet, especially if they need the cap. >> if it's not the next one to three months. >> the fast money trade is this is 10% cheaper than the average price and the valuation is 5.5 times versus nine times.

this is a place where you can buy the sdpok they gave you the risk-reward. it is a fast money. >> he has placed wagers on improvement in coal and placed it on domestic housing and led people who followed him on that thesis down an incorrect path based on where the market is today. >> let's talk about moves here. david einhorn's green light, cutting the stake in cbs, the broadcaster and microsoft. increasing the stake in yahoo by almost 26%. a nice pop in expedia and i thought that was interesting ghachb we recently saw expedia hit a 52-week high on the back of priceline. this is a hot sector and he got in way before. >> you like expedia. i will speak to cbs. the cut is probably somewhat timely. we talked about that quarter and we said at 35 it's probably

extraordinarily topee. that came to pass. now $4 or $5 later, there is a point to get back. we are actually getting pretty close. having no idea how they traded it, whatever exit point was good. >> i think that the third point apple position is actually pretty interesting. you think about where it was at the end of the first quarter. that was around the peak and that's a decent sized position. that price is interesting of all the 30-point position changes. that's the most interesting. >> also green light cut the stake in microsoft by a half and that was interesting given the rough time they had at holding that 32 levels and it hasn't gotten back there ever in terms of trading. >> i think overall he's done well with microsoft and he is

tactical in a space and the timing of technology is not now during the summer. it's something that is more consistent with a q4 or q1 type of appreciation. i think einhorn made tremendous moves and he made a great trade in first solar. he reduced the stake. clearly right now, i would focus on what david is doing than warren buffett. >> mike murphy who is playing contrarian for us tonight. >> i think as we discussed earlier, following these guys, these big hedge fund managers into the trades is a useless move. we know what they did months ago, but we don't know what they are doing today or tomorrow, but it's great to follow and look at what they are doing. there is not a way to make money off of what they did yesterday or three months ago. >> one of the things they agree with, going back to warren, some of these guys are so big, they

have no choice. this is why he chooses. mega cap companies. what's your call on that? i agree. following hedge funds is not a game we would think about and i would not suggest that. when you have a whale who needs major liquidity to move into that, what's your call. >> you look back on the trades and the financials and he has been way off base on a lot of trades. i don't know the exact numbers, but to follow him into based on the fact that he is investing and say i will buy it because warren buffett did or david einhorn did does not make sense. i take it for what it's worth, but there is a lot more homework to be done. >> what's disappointing is looking at the etf holdings. etfs are taking over the market.

the fact that individual managers are buying them to get exposure. that sends a lot of volatility into the markets and i think there is more to come. >> the next trade, is jamie diamond getting a reprieve and finishing higher by 1.5% off the shareholder meeting where he did not expect the loss to affect the dividend. is it time to get back into the bank. as time as gone on, shareholder his the time to think about what transpired that they are comfortable and that is a by product of a trading firm. that's what happens. you lose money sometimes. >> you do and i exited the position that i had taken in jpmorgan on friday and bank of america because i believe financials right now, the potential for earnings growth and trading revenue to increase during this quarter will be challenged and questioned until we actually get earnings in july itself. you want to call dead money, i wouldn't short the names. i do believe that right now

there is opportunity that you could find elsewhere in other sectors. the problem is more from a macro stand point with the financials where we are going to reintroduce the financial regulation argument and it's going to be a reactionary response from d.c. at a time when they should be focused on tackling. >> we have more 13 f filings. nelson peltz is reporting now. >> you will love this. apparently as of the first quarter, they made a huge bet against the stock market and showed a massive multimillion bet in the face of an spy put. a giant position against the s&p 500. that's what i meant to say. they are betting big against the market.

you also added inger sol rand. he raised his stake and cut his stakes in heinz and tiffany. they had a put at the end of the cutter. in terms of the notional value or what he spent on the puts? >> i don't know what he paid for the put, but he had a 725,000 put position which is worth 5.1 million. 725 and 876,000 put options on the spy. >> okay. brian? >> the thing that is strange about that is also they all caught. with a bullish call on oil and a negative call on the s&p, they go so high it will choke off growth, but that's not what's been playing out and it must be some type of a hedge.

>> i agree. we only have part of the picture here. >> that's the other thing to keep in mind. murphy was making the point. we don't know the other side. >> although i agree with his directional play, i think it's more of a hedge of his portfolio. >> got to take a break. do you tear to be dangerous? if the answer is yes and you want to stick around for our guest. what do they note investors like wilbur ross betting on right now. now.

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time for fast bonds. we are bringing you the best plays on the banks both large and small. joining us is kill berg of treasury curve. when people think of banks with etfs, they think of xlf. you have to understand the components before you buy. >> joe touched on it earlier.

right now we have seen jpmorgan. therefore we are seeing head winds. the xlf for the folks at home, they have a great basket of stocks. wells fargo and bank of america depending on the view and allows you to play that. i like the regional and i don't think it's susceptible to the regulation at the end of the day and they don't have the exposure. the bank is like the short-term play i like. >> for instance? >> they have a lot more holdings with the top ten representing 50% of the xlf where they are much more diversified. they are all under $1 billion.

they under performed. we will be seeing a tremendous growth and a great quarter. they are now where we will see performance. jeff kill berg, let's trait this. would you trait the kre? >> i'm not a more specific stock, but if you want to play the financials, black stone had it since january. a terrible year for 17 down to current levels. we are pushing towardses we saw in september. if you are looking for financials where you get the beta, black stone with the risk reward and a nice dividend. >> we top the go back to brian. go ahead. he had a sizable stake at the end of the first quarter. no whirlpool. he did not eliminate stakes in

anadarko and sun trust. here's what's interesting. he cut dramatically and it look said like he was trying to get out of it. a hedge fund of that size, it looked like he was headed in that direction. his gold bet was unchanged. >> 4.9 million. >> i have a great staff here. down to 300,000, furthering the thesis that whirlpool got the ax out of paulson. dish washer is out and gold remains the same. >> the gld as well as the goldminers? >> having gone through all the miners because there is a lot of names and i like to go live and quick. >> thanks, brian. mike murphy, you have been in and out of the trade and paulson is out. where do you stand? >> we have been short as we discussed several times from the

mid 70s. whirlpool we covered in the last few days and now we look at it from a value standpoint. we see the recovery in housing taking place and you see the position there. they took in beazer homes. whirlpool gets under 60 and you can start looking at five times earnings. >> the next guest is a legend and haster and betting on a bounce back. wilbur ross join joining us from the fast money portfolio. they meet the volatility of the today's world. thanks for coming by. i want to start with natural gas and i wonder if you think we have seen the bottom. >> we are close to it and our time horizon is a couple of years. so squiggles in the next month or two are not important to us. with the cut backs in production that are coming and the continued growth and demand, namely substitution of natural gas for coal, the outlook over

several years is for a trouble or triple in price from where it is now. >> you are heavy into ex-coe in natural gas and shipping. is there any value of chesapeake asset? >> i don't like to speculate on whether they will come up for sale, but they do have good assets that would be compatible. >> the problem is more the right hand side. >> when you think about a natural gas bet, do you want to be long servicing involved with natural gas or shipping or where is the focus? it has smaller vessels and handy max vessels that go to the

shallow sports. they have ethlean and similar products from the large vessels getting it down to work and be consumed. >> mr. ross, talk about europe and obviously all we have been dealing with, they are expecting a sum are worse than last summer. where would you want to play and in terms of the commodities where a lot of people are questioning any demand at all, is there another part of the story that is very healthy that we are missing? >> we are very involved with the banking side of europe. for us there is no europe. nobody ever introduced himself to me as a european. they are sprayed individual countries. we think of it as country issues more than eu issues. we bought heavily into bank of ireland. that's essentially a play on the fact that ireland is a high tech

economy. it's no longer the place that people once knew. it's the world's largest net exporter of pharmaceuticals and medical device companies are there and internet and internet gaming companies. it companies. it's a high tech economy and has the lowest tax rate in europe. young well educated workforce and they dealt with the problem. they nationalized the banks and they blew a hole in the budget. as a result in one day, they knocked out 13% of the total cost of civil service and cut out capital spending and cut social services even in the face of 14.5% unemployment. they are much further along than the other countries. >> we are pressed for time today, but in terms of the purchase of bank of ireland, you said that you intended on

tripling your money and you would exit. what sort of time frame doo have and whether or not what goes on in europe will in your view impact the time frame and extend it. could a greek exit impact that? >> first of all, you are quoting from an alleged quote. >> so let's go straight to the source. what is your intention in. >> they said we are in there at 36% of cleaned up book value and we think that and it should trade at a premium over book. that's the way we are looking at it. as to the export problem, ireland and the most recent quarter had very, very strong exports that fairly well offset the decline in consumer spending due to the recession. internet and agriculture are not very cyclical products.

in fact, ireland is the main exporter of the middle blue pills men take on occasion. >> what are you talking about specifically? >> the guilty can identify themselves. >> on that note. always a pleasure to have you with us. brian sullivan? >> john paulson showed a stake in sarah lee. they showed a raise stake and know they are splitting up. is he buying and companying it? some other smart guys are. >> you know what? he departed. >> he's quick. >> she is. that's how he turns it around. >> here moves about freely.

>> a couple of things real quick. the exportation of l and g is the viable trading thesis and think when you look at europe and what successfully has been done in ireland, don't think the same will happen in spain. they have to recapitalize the banks. >> we will show you how to trade one of the biggest meetings of the minds. if the heavy hitters got ahold of the conference and if you should bet alongside them this year. >> the term synthetic doesn't belong in the same sentence with the word bank. it should have some kind of mechanism that separates the federal safety net from high risk trading. >> first quarter earnings, two cents versus one cent 8 share seeing the heaviest volume since the first day of trading. are you expecting qe 3? >> they are printing money now. just not calling it qe 3.

#

> shares jufts in. let's go back to brian sullivan. >> we have to stop meeting like this. not doing a lot in the first quarter and not a lot of changes and no ads, but he did trim three positions. he trimmed the stakes in. family dollar, kraft, and fortune brands home security. remember the company split up. but maybe the news is what he didn't do. he didn't take a big new stake and did he not see value? maybe that's it. i don't know. i will report and you can decide. >> all right. maybe that belongs to someone else. thanks a lot. on the downside, trading at the highest level since january. what's your trade? >> it's a mean trade and using the volatility to your advantage. not taking the swing at the plate and fouling off pitches and waiting for the nice juicy pitch down the middle. in the reversion, it involves the financials and the xlf and

energy which is down 5% for the year. most folks truly believe that reversion will come back to the mean at some point. energy will begin to outperform financials whachl do you want to do? you want to buy outside calls and in the financials, you want to sell maybe the 15 or 16 calls against them to pay for it. what you are looking for over q3 and q4 is the mean reversion. i think you get it. >> the question s is there a bubble brewing in technology. our guest after the break thinks there could be repercussions. why he is sounding the alarm when we come back. ack. recently, students from 31 countries took part in a science test. the top academic performers surprised some people. so did the country that came in 17th place. let's raise the bar and elevate our academic standards.

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>> live at new york's times square, head winds for facebook and gm will stop advertising saying it has little impact on consumers and in collaboration with the associated press, they found that 57% of users poled said they never click on facebook ads or sponsored content and what does it mean

for the fast-approaching ipo has it raised its range? we had your neighbor on. >> my neighbor. >> the investor on the other side of your kitchen in another apartment. >> yes. >> saying there would have to be a cascade of miracles for facebook to merit the valuation it has. in the lower end. >> the lower end of the range is no longer the lower end of the range. it's been raised. i don't get it. i'm sure it will trade up, but it's crazy when you compare it to google. it's funny that they would be seen as an elder statesman. i'm long on google. i won't be long on facebook. >> two concerns. number one, the mobile platform that isb r absent and the acknowledgement that there is no penetration and will be none in china. i think that that is significant and that's the story of how most

of these are growing. is the penetration and they are not going to have it. i'm with you. >> what's interesting is that any company that had any exposure to social networking went up. they were decent and this is a company that rallied. russia's facebook. up 10% and anyone that has a stake and a couple of these guys own a piece of facebook and are getting pulled up for the ride. that is a significant part of this. if they are serving e commerce around that space. >> could be part of the fast approaching internet bubble. cio and investment management associates. he is author of the little book of sideways markets in markets that go nowhere. good to see you. what comprises the internet bubble because in terms of the internet ipos, it hasn't been a moon shot like we saw in the 90s.

let me explain and dumb it down so even traders can understand it. >> we know what you mean. >> they have millions of dollars and four billion in revenues. they have a market cap and $40 billion. in other words, if you buy facebook today, you are not buying it because you think it's worth that, but you think it will double. in other words, five years, it will have the same as google. in other words, since both companies have similar cost structure, it is going to be trading and have revenues of about $40 billion. facebook at today's valuation or future valuation, prices in at ten times increase in revenues.

ed the sun has to shine every day for the next five days with no rainy days at all. >> is that the precursor of more people pulling the advertising? >> it's very important. here's the reason why. a lot of people are suffering for facebook fatigue. when it came out, we were happy to make acquaintances with 500 friends we don't know, but we have lives. we have only 24 hours a day and sleep eight of them. we have 16 hours of productive time. we watch football and ride bicycles and some of us go to work. there is so much time in the day we can spend doing that. that's number one. there is user fatigue. number two, they are right. i have been on facebook for a long time.

number three -- point number two, i think they will have a hard time charging very high prices. >> we will leave it there. >> real quick, on behalf of the traders, i challenge you to a game of chess and you can start as white. >> how about the rest of the day. >> i think that people are questioning it is a good thing. that was an analyst approach, i don't think he said anything we didn't know. it's expensive and there was a challenge to the business model. my guess is there is something -- >> does facebook compete with football and hockey and riding your bike? >> i am so confused. unless you friend me.

then i have all day long. >> you only have that one friend. >> slip on a pair of crocks and sit down and facebook away. >> on a programming note, tune in thursday from 1:00 to 2:00 for coverage of the facebook ipo, including my morning partner, carl. tomorrow the investment conference will be held in new york city and brings big name investors to share the picks with a live audience. they sported the best ideas and others didn't do well. if you take a look at how they did, you can see that seth was down 2%. a trade down 87% and take a look at bill. he was long family dollar and up 23%. he trimmed his position and that was a big winner. in terms of gaming, is there

gameyness? >> they looked at 13 fs of einhorn or bill ackman, but probably not. >> probably the best way is to intently watch what goes on if you have the platform to do so. >> there was an interesting note today for those who were interested in the possibilities of what can be named as a top trade tomorrow. they had a note on herbal life saying that there was a greater than 50% probability. >> i bet he will say something on jcp. >> it's possible and they are big and in terms of a lot of news. >>or that speculation alone, they have taken a stock from the target down to 39. that's extraordinary. talk about people out there that are trying to gain this thing, they say we still like the company. it's hard to really make a call on this. you can't assume that anything will change.

you have to assume that there is a broken company that einhorn is going after. why is it a buy still? it's all weird? >> we will have the latest from jcpenney's earnings and an analyst that has been listening in. stay tuned for much more fast straight ahead. fro omrevi htalielzeping t a neigbrhbooklyn..or.ho financing industries that are creating jobs in boston... providing funding for the expansion of a local business serving a diverse seattle community... and lending to ensure a north texas hospital continues to deliver quality care. because the more we can do in local neighborhoods and communities, the more we can help make opportunity possible. [ technician ] are you busy? management just sent over these new technical manuals. they need you to translate them into portuguese. by tomorrow.

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let's bring in courtney reagan who has been monitoring the conference call. >> the ceo is speaking with analysts in new york city along with the other executives. one big headline and said they didn't understand that the customers were using coupons over coupons. a key thing to note. they have done away with coupons with the new strategy. very surprising to hear them say that. he said we take in a courageous bet and this is one big transformation and we are 29% of the way through and urning the community to hang on. we will see if they respond, but you know they are anxiousing after hours. it has been a big adjustment to not use the jcpenney coupons. >> that's funny. you offended 48% of the population out there. >> i hear the name ron johnson and think "fast times at

ridgemont high." >> you get excited that they are adding johnson and bags. >> in all seriousness, piper jaffray on the fast line. are you hearing anything from the call that makes you more optimistic about what's happening given they gave guidance at the share holer's meeting? >> that's a great question. three things we needed to hear and one was the uppadate. they were looking for the low double-digits and high teens. did impact the margins and the second was reduction efforts. i would say on that front, they have good news and they would exceed the 900 million. most importantly is what they are talking about right now. that's the presentation to call in and they are running through the new brands that they are launching. that is the key to the story. if they populate their stores with unique differentiated brands, that's going to turn it

around in the back half. >> let me ask you something. does johnson's comments on the coupon give you any pause about the new pricing strategy? >> they t really doesn't. this is one big grand experiment. they are learning things along the way as well. he did emphasize a few things a few minutes ago. that is that they are marketing while gaining attention and that is not getting the message across and people don't realize it's not just every day, but they have monthly specials on a number of categories that are 20 to 40% off the effort low. they have to educate the consumer with a little bit more detail and they think it will work in q2. >> great to speak with you. coming up, he led the steelers on the gridiron for more than 15 years, but taking on a different opponent. stick around for that story after this. after this.

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