level since early february. thank you very much for being with me. see you tomorrow and hope you will follow me on twitter and google plus. fast money begins right now. have a fantastic evening. >> it's official. we are in a bit of a rut. >> the money coming out of the market is kind of shocking. this has to do with the fact that the stock market has been such a horrible asset. >> looks like our old friend ben won't help us out this time. >> the spending is moderate and the labor market improving and the unemployment rate will remain above what they did on the long run level. >> that are doesn't mean there not still great stops. >> our view is not changed at all. >> if you are careful not to take too much risk -- >> aka the whale. they are leaving the bank. >> the trades will set you free from this market.

tim is ready to tango. they will trade with mustard on it. this is fast money. >> live from the nasdaq from time square, let's get to the part of the day that shows how firmly pessimism has taken hold. consensus among strategists is they should allocate 52% to stocks, the last time it was that low was in march of 2009 that marked the start of the current bull market. so we asked some strategists, should you as well hate stocks? >> that number has come down dramatically in a short period of time. things going on in the market that are making them worried back in march. in early april, that sort of thing. when you see what we have seen in the last couple of weeks like

jpmorgan and cisco having massive down days, stocks like apple where they are breaking down. horribly technically. there was a lot of technical and psychological things going on. the strategists are late and market participants have been gearing up for weeks now. we have this sentiment overload and it's time to buy. remember in the summer, these marks were untradeable. people were not playing. this is a question. they say deleveraging and i can't play with it. i'm out. >> maybe they are right and it's not a contrarian indicator? >> it is closer because in two or three weeks, they were talking about how they were up another 10%. i would use it as an indicator, look at the bond market.

they appeal to extremes and if they go higher at extremes, you start to mark the tops and bottoms. in the short-term, we are closer to a bottom here. we are subject to the tape bombs from europe. it makes it somewhat untradeable. >> here's food for thought. the strategist recently raised her target from the s&p to 1450 to 1400. what she cited was the indicator and that measured the strategists towards wall street. she is a strategist and said because of the other people like her on the street, because they are so bearish, she is turning more bullish. >> who else is there? what else is there to say? >> that's a double negative. looking at the market has pessimism. look here. this has to be a contrarian indicator. we had a lot of negatives from

europe to earnings to the jpmorgan, but whenever this number is measured back years and years and whenever it gets down to the levels, you are at an oversold condition. if we are not there now, we are close. >> let's go to steven weiss who is the contrarian. >> you have to be positive. >> i lost track. i am figuring out where they lineup. i am bearish. the only similarity between this and march' 09, i think they got it right. the problems are in front of us. nobody to bail us out. may there be more, absolutely. it's not going to help cure the problems that face us. china slowing down and who knows what happens in europe? we will be a seller of the market. >> i hear all of that. would you be a short seller here? you think the market is going down? you want to short the stocks and deer had a great number and raised earnings? why?

>> i am net short a couple of accounts. the reason is if you look at the expectations of what they are saying whether it's cat looking for 8.5% chinese growth, 3% in the u.s., flat in europe, that's not going to happen. >> deer revised their outlook and revised upwards. >> what i am telling you is the end of the year is worse than this part. making the bet and not what management said, but by the way like to get the stock prices up. >> i don't think these guys are every doing the prices. they are talking about earnings that they have to guide. >> order looks fadeaway and are written in stone. >> that's written in paper. >> they are written in contracts. this is not a one off story. steve is right on the centiment. when you get down and talk to company, this is what you have to do. a lot of these are in good

shape. investors are not. the hedge funs have blown up and a lot of people have dedicated that are not playing. >> european concerns hit commodities and falling to territory settling on the lowest level since 2011. they are hitting the lowest levels since november. the dix up for the 13th straight session. what do you do with commodities? >> you have to separate them. a lot of commodities were hit by what they said overnight. they talked about how they were not going to hit the capex spending that they thought they would not hit. if you separate out that versus something like the grains where wheat was up more than 4%, that's where you want to focus the money in the grain space. people have to eat and are continuing to eat, but if you want to short something, what i did on the bhp news, you sell short australia. you have a housing bubble and

they are reliant on coal and all the commodities. >> you are shorting aussie against what? >> they short the aussie index and the etf. you can buy puts on that. >> mike murphy. >> real interesting how commodities led the whole market lower. it was the bhp this morning. i start looking up at 90. maybe deer is overvalued and down here it gets to $74. it trades on some valuation. i have been beating that drum for a while and taz comes lower, they get better. >> interesting we talk about a sentiment cliff, the valuation is not really something to hold on to. i was watching the show when the jpmorgan conference call was going on and people were talking about valuation met rits. this is 7% or 8% lower, that's great depending on the time horizon, but cat tractor was 20%

higher. it's cheaper and getting cheaper. to me, listen. if we are getting to a point where we can see a reduction of last summer, but all these stocks will get a lot cheaper. you better have other reasons. >> why aren't we seeing a bit to cold? some say it's broken. the dollar is a safe haven. you have to find companies that are not in the baskets or at least will be that flight to safety. a lot of the big utility or drug company or guys that have significant growth are paying 3% to hold them. you have to know who owns what you own. what's going on here is as we saw on the 13, a lot of these guys had big holdings or big etfs where they were making a

macro call. adding the directional call and a lot of them have unwound. owning gold here is a good place to be. when you know that the banks are delevering, they are ndes kriminant. these are the toughest days to buy and if you can buy things that pay you to be along for the ride, you can't run along for the market. >> i want to know what traders are saying about the direction of gld now that it's bear market territory. >> when you look at the way the options marks are doing, with respect to just risk on, risk off, you see that in the relationship between the prices for index options versus single stock options as index options get more expensive, that's basically saying all stocks are a risk asset and we are concerned and have been seeing

that in correlation. as far as gld, there is a lot of weakness observed in the market for sometime. they pretty much have given up on the notion that gold was the cure for all that ails you. a let of intelligent people look at that and say we want to be in front of that if they want to start unwinding. we could be speak being paul son and others. the smart bet was down. normally the commodities and they are the bid over the downside. in gold that was not the case. >> let's move on to the next trade. playing host to wall street's biggest names today. the charitable event bringing top investors with a live audience. david einhorn not presenting herbal life as a short idea. scott wapner is sitting in.

scott? >> thanks so much. david einhorn wrapped up about an hour ago and each lasted about 15 to 20 minutes or so and went through 137 slides during his presentation and mentioned many different names, but certainly the presentation is notable as much for what he didn't say. no mention of herbal life, hlf. the stock we followed so closely. since the latest call when david einhorn asked questions of management related to the accounting, the stock went into a tail spin. there was wild speculation that einhorn would use this occasion here at the conference to mention that he was short the name. in fact he didn't say anything. you can see the stock moved higher before einhorn took the stage and continued that move in the after hours. it's interesting in and of itself the way they give the

presentation. he doesn't come out and say i am long this and short this. you listen to the presentation and how he presents each of the stocks and the cases that he makes. you are left to decide based on that presentation. the research that he gives and what side of the fence he was on. it was an interesting day and he did not give. he gave negative commentary on amazon. not so much. he said it was difficult to assess. he used it more as an example of what pressure dick's sporting goods is facing. dks had a great quarter. the stock his a good move, but he thinks amazon will do whatever it takes to put the pressure on a name like dicks. keep an eye on dks down 4% today and that slide accelerated while einhorn was giving a presentation. she long that name and

reiterated the case about why he likes apple, calling it more of a software company than a hardware company saying some people seem to misunderstand that. he was making the case for apple. u.s. steel, negative on that name and that stock was at session lows when he came on and remained there. you can pull it up and see how he was doing. einhorn was negative and the stock that was impacted the most, martin murr yeta materials. not high at all on the management. he made that case as you look at u.s. steel, but there is a more significant move from mlm. and a negative one at that being made from david einhorn. still idea to give the packed house. >> absolutely. scott, thanks so much. joining us from the conference.

you are not sure what you position is. in terms of the move, we are seeing those move sharply in the after hours session. these are two stocks. dick's for one posted 52-week highs. >> you don't know where he is making broad commentary or talking about something with meaningful definition. the sentiment is so all over the place, i think this is one of the greatest hedge funds. if you get in, good luck. he will make you money. the fact that he can move 11%, it tells you what people are doing in the market. he is doing his work, but everybody else is not. when we talk about the intricators. people overshooting on standard

deviations and you get expectations we are in now. this creates opportunities. i am not saying you should run in with the names that look like demand is falling out, but they are great companies. einhorn reinforces that. >> i would make a big take away from what scott had to say. here's a guy who presented a story. he rolls his sleeves up and gets into the stories. he did a lot of work on microsoft. he was in the mid 20s. you know what he did this year? he sold half of it. that's a great lesson for investors. he takes the profits. that's a big take away. >> in terms of the negative comments and how they impact the stock, would you use this on any of these? >> no, no. i think it's really difficult to go from what somebody said in a conference and to have a strong

conviction about i'm shorting this because of ten different reasons or for these reasons. you can do your own work and figure out and say yes, that works. beyond that to buy or sell it because somebody else did is a fool's game. >> regardless of what he said, murr yeta is down 4%. whatever the reason, it's down 11%. do you see it as a buying opportunity? >> amazon possibly. i like them and i wor bet marry the margins. i would rather play it a different way. >> look at the stock that is still pretty ripped. a lot of people were long the name and it's a speculative bet on the up turn. 30 times earnings. this thing is probably -- even if you take a look at the best revenues they have done, $5.5 billion and i don't see that it's a buy here. the stock has fallen further.

>> iron horn had two sides to every trade. also at the conference saying she short apple along with nordstrom and others. he said it looks like death. >> the cage match maybe. >> maybe so. keep that in mind. for every positive there is a negative out there. coming up, apple could make a big move. we are not talking about that. find out what the next guest thinks apple could have this time around. much more fast straight ahead. sadly, no. oh. but i did pick up your dry cleaning and had your shoes shined. well, i made you a reservation at the sushi place around the corner.

well, in that case, i better get back to these invoices... which i'll do right after making your favorite pancakes. you know what? i'm going to tidy up your side of the office. i can't hear you because i'm also making you a smoothie. [ male announcer ] marriott hotels & resorts knows it's better for xerox to automate their global invoice process so they can focus on serving their customers. with xerox, you're ready for real business. in that time there've been some good days. and some difficult ones. but, through it all, we've persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement. and the next great idea could be yours. ♪

>> facebook is the biggest ipo of the year and increasing the biggest percentage to be sold. is this a case of investors taking advantage of demand or an early sell signal for the ipo.

you can see the revisions upward to the amount of shares they intend to sell and the troubling thing may be, this is much more insider selling we have seen for the other internet ipos so far over the past six months or so. groupon and zynga pale in comparison. >> there was a bit of a gray market. i think these guys have -- kwleen the covenants are, but there has been a gray market for facebook that has been different than any other ipo. this is an interesting time to be looking at the company. this is really a place where the first day can be that. >> the bottom line is let's say by some miracle you can get an allocation. >> if you can get an allocation, that's fantastic. don't buy in the aftermarket. the only reason to buy is you think mark zuckerberg takes the stock and puts them in the

dresser drawer and come back 10 or 15 years and you will be happy. beyond that you see people selling at the high valueations. >> speaking of stocks, there is a derivative trade on facebook and you may not be thinking of it right now under the radar. >> some companies don't issue stock certificates anymore. one expert said apple doesn't. facebook will. this is what the proposed certificate will lock like with the sec. it is listed as president which is new. it's not just chairman and ceo. that's his signature right there. trading could be a market on its own according to bob kirstie who makes a living. >> that was disastrous for time-warner. >> he runs and trades stock

certificates for active companies and original apple certificate sold for $1300 and disney bought pixar and they are selling for ten times that and the big trade in oldies but goodies. you can sell your certificate for a company that is trading without a broker's license and without them going after you and own the underlying stock. you have to stamp the certificate that is non-redeemable and has to be sold for at least twice the current value of the stock and you have to make it clear that you are not a brokered dealer and it's not sold for investment purposes. will they appreciate more in the actual share? it will if you sell it for twice as much. it will be more valuable if he leaves because his name is on it. listen to this. >> the example of that is martha stewart. they sell from about $100 to

$150. they issue certificates without her name because she was removed from the company as an officer, the certificates went down in value. >> he thinks the proposed facebook courteous looks boring and mad magazine has come up with this suggested artwork. thank you for funding the effort to control every single piece of personal information on the internet and it even has a like sign on the bottom. >> it looks like alfred e. newman. sorry, mark. uncan uncanny. >> unbelievable story. i wish you can do a split screen. >> the ears are a little smaller. >> tune in from 1:00 to 2:00 eastern time and we will have special facebook coverage on the first day of trading and back here at 5:00 for fast money. we will have the pricing of facebook. highly anticipated event.

apple's global mobile market share according to research is nearly doubling. in a potential new agreement between apple and china mobile could boost the number, but could apple have bigger plans to expand into mobile. we have a wireless industry strategist who managed yields for all of the major providers. great to speak with you. why would apple go into this business? >> today as your story indicates, apple is up to 7.9% of the global market share and they are the number three producer in the world with one handset. likewise through the itunes store, they are selling all kinds of content ab ps and movies, video, and so forth. one thing they are not making money on is the carriers make off of iphone customers. to give you an idea, the customers are the highest value

customer that at least the u.s. carriers have. in other words, they generate 90 to $95 a month in service revenues. $1,000 a year. that's twice the average that a regular subscriber gets. these are high value subscribers and that $1,000 a year is going straight to the carriers. apple may want a wepiece of tha. they have been developing a business plan over years or so, filing patents i believe they are getting ready to move forward. here's how it would work. last week. the president of emerging devices and the guy who negotiated the first e phone deal said basically all tablets will have cellular connectivity.

can you imagine going into the itunes store and buying a data plan for a day. a week or month or data roaming plan if you are going to europe to the olympics. it's a beautiful way and a very elegant way to utilize what apple has today and then they would negotiate with the operators on the back end. this does not mean they are going to buy spectrum and buy a company. they will have basically a bidding war where they will be connected with multiple operators on the back end and use i tunes to provision first your ipad and then to sell plans. >> we have questions here. >> one of the things you mentioned yourself, these guys have had one phone. they had five since they introduced the iphone. one of the biggest knots is the service they have here. if you think about them getting closer to providing the service

because that's the next step, isn't that something that can derail the guys. isn't that how they isolate themselves from the issues that go with the service rather than producing a great piece of hardware and a great cell phone from a software standpoint? >> that's a great question and a lot of people say that. obviously apple has the highest customer satisfaction of any handset. on the other end of the scale, the operators are not meeting customer needs and they discussed this ceo last week at the carrier convention. apple definitely would want to make sure that they can give their customers the kind of experience that people expect out of apple products. again, part of the whole patent and the business plan that they are working up would allow apple and their customers to connect multipet operators where they

select the best in any given market to give them the best experience. >> thanks for your time. we appreciate it. a very interesting idea, but would this make you less inclined to buy the apple share fist they got into the business? >> depends how they get into it. it's an interesting concept, but they want to control everything as dan mentioned. they will not have a product that doesn't work like apple wants it. if you want to play this, the person is more likely to do it is goingle. . >> let's go to a shorter term look at apple. wall street is reporting that apple was ordering display screens that measured at least four inches and the production could begin next month. when you say production begins next month and whatever time, that means that -- that people don't buy iphone now. >> they broke the stock and it's breaking 550 on the downside.

they are mid-march here. if this is true and they will do a lot of these android phones with the four-inch displays, they have 4g and apple has the 3g and everyone else is 4g and tiny screens. >> it's down 15% since the bull market started. i would watch apple. >> samsung down 15% and 56% of all new phones sold out and android on it and samsung sells 40%. i would be buying samsung and not apple. >> the five-star fund manager has beaten the fund manager for three years. what is driving his healthy returns. sick around to get that trade, straight ahead.

sick around to get that trade, not quite knowing what the next phase was going to be, you know, because you been, you know, this is what you had been doing. you know, working, working, working, working, working, working. and now you're talking about, well you know, i won't be, and i get the chance to spend more time

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>> want to go to the markets with the latest on the conference. brian this. >> thank you very much. we are getting headlines in from scott wapner who is listening to paulson. caesars and i saw a moment ago up 1%. i am not sure what it's trading at so not a huge pop. always interesting. the speaker is making headlines all day. he is positive on caesars and anglo. >> brian, thanks so much. perhaps not entirely a surprise considering in the latest filing she sticking with the holdings in the gld as well as goldminers. continuing along with this. >> that are is brave because he had unbelievable pressure. >> ie bad returns.

>> that are may explain the lack of pop. we tied a position and one point we thought would be a core position and got it down to something we have been staying in. it will be painful. 5% did get to the miners. they are a get company and a lot of them look well-positioned and you have to have a stomach for this and you have to expect more deleveraging. central banks two years ago were doing a lot of buying of gold to diversify the reserves and they have more gold to sell and that's more pressure. >> time now for the fast money portfolio. we are looking at a fund that invests in health care and industry that had a tough run year to date. under performing in 2012 so far. the price helped the science fund and is up 17% in that same period. chris jenner manages the fund. i want to talk about your largest holding. certainly that has been a

tremendous performer and has one drug that has two approved uses. how risky is it? are they going to get more uses? >> lex yon is a lex yon's profitability is accelerating and i would say they are derisking and acquiring other companies with the cash flow and getting from the pipeline. this had a great run and there is more ahead for the stock. >> do you see more usages to be approved? how sure are we that they will have this revenue stream for a continued amount of time without it going generic?

>> the sbng thing is the core is compliment inhibition. i don't want to get too technical, but a lot of diseases involve the system. i think we are going to discover overtime when it's all said and done that it is remarkable the number of diseases for which soular sis highly effective. >> i am curious what drives your performance and whether you are looking at dividend-paying or big pharma or more of the niche layers. >> we are trying to find innovation and important new medical products and when we can find those in the context of smaller companies so that the profitability makes more of an impact on a smaller share outstanding. the rate of change is greater from a financial point of view and therefore the share price rate of change is greater. that's what we are looking for.

unfortunately most medical advances are incremental in nature. we don't have a portfolio of new medical products. that's what we are looking for. the flip side is in our business services area. we are trying to find business models that really drive down cost of health care or improve quality outcomes or hopefully do both. that's what we are looking for. our returns because we have had good returns show that by and large,we are able to find those. >> pleasure to speak with you. chris jenner from the price of health science fund. where do you go? >> i prefer unitedhealth over a speculative play. i would like to ask chris that the a lex yon has pulled back and want to know if he is stepping in and buying it here. >> up next, the 1 and only larry king. you heard me right, larry king. he is here at the nasdaq to tell

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live at the nasdaq markets. want to take a look at the comments by john paulson. shares of caesars moving higher in the aftermarket session after paulson said he was positive on this stock has a holing in it. anglo gold is the other stock singled out by mr. paulson at the conference. we will keep you posted out of the conference in lincoln center tonight. we are looking for the next big thing here. the richest man in the world is betting on internet tv. financing a television network called aura tv. joining us is one of the top talents. larry king and ceo john houseman. a pleasure to have you with us. >> thank you. >> i have questions for mr. king, but let's seat set the table in terms of aura tv and

how you hope to change. >> there is a lot of talk about internet video and what's happening the last couple of years. more is coming along and there is a place for advertisers to go and they have been. google and hhulu going into the space. the way we see it, we are excited about it. the potential marriage of the two most powerful mediums of the world. television and the interaction and an opportunity. >> it's fully funded by advertising. that's what the business model is. >> correct. there is other sponsorship and integrations and opportunity, but it's a model. >> hour did you get involved? >> it started a couple of years ago. went to mexico city and spoke. they have an event and gave up the scholarships.

i spoke to the students and invited him to come on my show and he accept and came on. i had made the announcement that i was leaving. he said what are you going to do? i said i was going to make a lot of speeches and travel and spend a lot of time with my children. he said you can't. you are not going to bleetly leave. my wife was the founder because she came up with an idea one day of why not an internet television network? they took it from there and went back. people in mexico city. i go on. john is the kind of guy we were proud to get. we got him from the murdoch corporation. we hope to be up in the summer. i'm excited. >> you obviously made your name and a tremendous career on traditional cable tv news. there thoughts that there is a

secular ratings decline in television in general because of the competition opened up by the internet. do you see that what you are doing could eventually end up to be the demise of the medium you used to work in? >> i don't want to demise anything. i had a great time. i am close to cnn and we had a wonderful partnership. it was a wonderful ending. i'm going into the cable hall of fame. john might have a better clue. very, very productive and think we will be a major force. so does mr. slim. >> last question. we are leading up to the facebook ipo. do you plan on working with facebook and do you city as a valuable platform for your project that is launching right now? do you see it as an important platform? >> very much so.

it's not as simple as putting something on the internet. a lot of pieces and organization like this has to have and be good at marketing and play well with facebook. and twitter and the rest of the social graph. basically and i don't think cnbc and the television is going away. the blurring of the lines between internet and television. and we just think that in the same way that cnbc and amc and bravo and many other brands have built franchises, i think in the future they will be built in the digital domain. >> leave with the stock tip of the day. >> which is? >> we need a whole episode for this. >> buy low, sell high. >> we will brave that. great to have you both with us. >> kings things on twitter.

>> the one and only larry king. >> thanks, guys. >> more on the conference and back to headquarters. >> john paulson wrapping up his conversation and we are talking about his comments before. more to add. he is positive on cvr energy. you might recall and owns the shares and he likes that trade as well. >> brian shackman. coming up next, our traders are shopping for the best names in retail. get their top picks and find out how they are trading with the biggest earnings reports. much more fast straight hate. ahead.

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>> implying 8% move well above the average. as we so often say these are the circumstances that lineup very well for long spreads. it is 19 puts and collect about a buck and buy the september 19 puts and pay about 1.95. a lengthy calendar spread for less than a dollar. once the nine roll off, i will hang on if you own stock and that will be a nice way to play for the downside move. >> are you a best buy man? >> i'm not a best buy fan, but i'm not the first to discover that they have a problem with what's going on. i don't want to be short and that's why i like this trade. i have a defined risk on it. i can short the stock without worrying about someone taking it over. >> last word?

>> this is cheap and hard to bet on the short side. there was a good way to play. >> you can catch more options action and follow-through on twitter at cnbc options. sorry. think you know how facebook will fare? we have that story when you come back.

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>> welcome back to fast. the shares of the limited moving in the after hours session, the same-store sales improved in the quarter. revenues were softer and so was the guidance for the current quarter. 40 to 45 cents a share and that is below the estimates of 50 cents a share. we are seeing that trade lower. let's stick to retail trade and wal-mart is ahead. do you like wal-mart? >> i don't. it doesn't go much one way or the other. kind of boring. i like the position on jcpenney. you make a lot more money on the short side than in wal-mart. >> how about you guys? >> wal-mart is one of the ones that when they reported the holiday quarter, the gaap down

and to me it falls into a category where you have a story stock based on an event and you could have declining fundamentals. to me i think this is one you want to avoid. >> would you short jcp? >> i covered the stock yesterday, but i wouldn't be shorted down at these levels. >>. >> i think that's what people will be talking about. there is no reason that the politicians are going to let go of the stock. this has a bit of a cap on it. >> the first move tomorrow when we come back. hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us crunch the numbers for accounts receivable today. i mean i know that this is important.

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across the company. around the world. turning a new trend, into a global phenomenon. it's the at&t network -- securing a world of new opportunities. ♪ back to the final trade. >> einhorn made good calls and the stock is down as much as mark made the spreads. >> steven weiss. >> steve like steel, einhorn does like steel. >> tim in. >> later into this weakness, seven times earnings. pharmaceuticals. >> covering the citibank. >> abercrombie is down today. >> every retailer in the world is going online and spending money to do that. they have to get t