tv Fast Money CNBC May 22, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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everybody. see you. . facebook. when will the bad status updates end? >> i was shocked. there were rumors of this last week and when i saw them, i didn't believe them. it sounded preposterous. >> when the market in disarray again, we could use old friends for advice. >> go back to the wait and phenomenonal. this one is ridiculous. and people didn't listen. they didn't listen. >> they didn't care at all. >> not at all. >> back in the mid 90s, we would get hate mail. >> this is no time to panic. keep your cool. >> josh, you couldn't see me off camera. i was punching a picture of you. i wanted to have a come back.
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>> ben hannahhaged to get sold. >> you can get a voll tano thing out of the onions. >> brasso is taping his hands and on the trading floor, time for fast money. live from the nasdaq, new york city's time square. a would be positive day for stocks and the call for super once again. reports surfacing that according to a greek prime minister, the risk of greeks exiting the euro zone is real, but they are preparing for the scenario before. you would notice mid-afternoon that the euro started rolling over and we thought it was short ahead of the g 8 meeting. >> listen, i asked a serious question to steve on the call we had this afternoon. why is the euro melting down. asking steve a serious question, you will never get a serious answer. >> he may punch you in the face. >> what is going to continue to
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go on until you get the elections in june, why wouldn't they position themselves as leaving in they want more aid. they want the germans to come forth and give them more funds. this is nothing more than posturing. >> they will want more aid again. >> i don't go that way. i wanted a trade in the market place. whether or not they leave the euro, that remains to be seen. for the market place itself, understand sideways i think that will be the new up. you are going to have this continued discourse with us for the next three weeks. >> you have to play the political. tomorrow they will have a three-hour lunch or dinner or both. >> a long siesta. >> a huge expectations that the europeans would get something done. the germans and the french are not going it get anything done. if that was your expectation and you are along the euro, you are in dig trouble.
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the dollar was strengthening and as you know, with the co correlation running this high, that's the interday moving. >> i tent to agree. you have to watch them right now that went 14 straight days before pulling back and you might want to test higher. the s&p closed and we have a baby positive green. two stray days of positives that we haven't seen since late april. this is to find a way to normalize. if you look at the positioning going into this week, people had prepared for crash scenarios and much of yesterday's rally for guys going into the weekend. guys are about as flat or short as they can be. i don't know a lot of guys that want to be short with the exception of the guys that are going for it in the commodity base.
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there guys long here? he makes a good point. are people squaring away positions to be safe? >> definitely. >> they wanted a pop and they got a pop. they fell short of the level in the s&p. on the downside, 1292. keeping a range until we break out. >> that's right. you keep the range. you have to manage the risk. we have seen a 40-point range here. i would have been aggressively short and we were. with the dollar up, you want to be short in gold and oil and short in stocks that are related to gold and oil. the stocks and they have a huge position in this. if you don't have a gold mine and you are bearish on gold. there a lost opportunities. >> if you don't have the propensi propensity, i look at it, it's not the time to buy the commodities whether it's cotton or the grains or energy. i do think if you are trading
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this range, you understand 1279, the s&p. that's a 200 day moving average. any test, where do you want to be? you want to buy a smart group and a starbucks. we reintroduced the concept of owning the high end consumers. i gave the final trade and like owning the higher end consumer. not all of retail is broken. >> do you want to be long on financials? the price action was pretty stoked. >> this is on the vortex. people are regaining confidence that this was a failure. it's not that people are disappointed with the stock that is a big press, but if you look where people were friday afternoon, a lot of guys were taking out tail risk in the u.s. financials and expectations that you were going to see something over the weekend. >> jpmorgan was priced below
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book value. they were buying jpmorgan and covering it, but that's the prom ter for the space at this point. whatever way they go, goes the rest of the financials. >> hitting after hours actions and a big move with dell. down 11% after the company missed on both the bottom and the top lines. what does it mean for the pc maker. let's bring in the senior technology analyst from jeffries. is there any positive in this report? >> not really. what we are looking at is a broad-based slow down. servers and service and software. interesting that pc was in line, but the guidance looks weak. >> we top the go to john in silicon valley with breaking news on dell. john? >> yeah, the call just got started. they said they didn't execute up to expectations.
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they blame sales and said they made changes to deal with that. also the macro environment heard on an earlier media call and why the asia business was flat. that was up 15%. they said india demand and that echoes what cisco said. a pause in europe and people holding on on pc sales ahead of windows 8 coming out and the enterprise refresh, they are saying that their customers are cautious. they are cautious about buying equipment in an uncertain growth environment. lots of negatives, but china was up 9% in the services business continued to do well along with storage and networking despite a lot of the weaker areas they are talking about now. >> thanks a lot for the update. some bright spots like china. enterprise customers remain cautious and you have to throw
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in the government that they are extremely exposed to. they have to be cautious there as well. what's your prognosis? >> a rough couple of quarters. this is not a one quarter turn around. the pc makers as a whole have a mirage earlier this year when they came back online. frankly they built a lot of inventory. it took a few quarters to build it down. >> they are going for margins as opposed to the top line. they are saying that progress won't be linear for dell. what does it mean? the fact that we are seeing small victories? where do you think the company is going? valuation-wise, we are at trough levels. this could be in the territory, except for it looks like it. >> the pc market as a whole, if we are right and it's a secular decline, it will be hard to cut quick enough and acquire enough services in storage to mitigate
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that. that's the challenge really. the linearity of it will be tough. they have big moves and big cuts they will have to make. >> when you look at it,a way from the product and this is the macro, down 22% and a straight line since growth started slowing. that's evident to a lot of people. how much do you have to get right to get the stock right from here? >> around 50%. the pc side is tablet conbalization and not seeing anything exciting and a delay. the other side is the european side. europe slowed down for everyone across the board. >> the read through is not that demand for which when it won't be as great. it's a temporary delay and people are waiting for the win 8. we are seeing hewlett packard lower. what's the read through for the results? >> for hp, it's a smaller
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percentage of earnings, around 15% and not as big of a drag. the macro issues they will encounter, we would think the other enterprise risks that dell is seeing will be making a lot of sense. >> you are putting too much stock in that at this point? >> we would argue that we are putting too much stock in it. it's more of a tablet than a pc phenomenon. i'm not sure it will make it all that sexy for the consumers. >> speak for yourself. thanks for your time. we appreciate it. you guys are nuts. in terms of the trade, we are of course watching hew 89 packard. the mix is different here. >> let's highlight and here's what's important. the full year guidance, they would have tackled that issue if they were confident in this quarter that the head winds were going to be temporary.
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obviously dell believes these head winds are going to stay for another quarter and update the goidance in august. that's not good. 2.13 and the street expects $2.11. i would expect them to revise dell lower based on them not updating until august. >> in terms of win 8 being a tablet phenomenon, they are well-positioned if i recall. hewlett packard does not have a tablet at this point. >> the only thing is there is nothing about the pc softness and the demand side that is anything new. what i am seeing is where can they begin to transform the business? they talk about the linearity. so far we are not seeing the other part. what is coming through, we look at the stocks and you are basically back to the lows of august of 2011. interesting levels because we spiked down to the one-year and at some point, you will take a
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look because the valuation is not expensive. >> we have breaking news and want to throw it back to headquarters. >> thank you very much. cnbc confirming with the secretary of the common wealth of massachusetts that he issued a subpoena to morgan stanley regarding the discussion that is the research department had with institutional investors regarding facebook's revenue prospects prior to the company's ipo. that is the big issue as you all have been discussing and now the secretary of the common wealth of massachusetts confirming he issued a subpoena on the discussions prior to the ipo. you can chew on that for a little bit and morgan stanley having a tough day again today. >> it is moving lower in the after hours session and of course this goes back to the reuters story that a morgan stanley analyst revised lower in the forecast for facebook.
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after the amended filing to distribute that to investors. >> plain and simple, it's why the market will stay in a sideways range. we needed the facebook ipo on friday not for the stock price itself to move higher, but we need it for confidence to be restored in the process of what wall street does. it obviously did it and stays in a range. >> 'is it sideways and not lower. >> it could be lower. >> i hear that too. if anything, this would be called the people's ip. >> the retail was not coming back in. >> that's not the point. it's not a matter of participation. it is the matter of we will have yon on later in the show and he will tell us about the fiscal cliff that is coming. nobody in d.c. will be able to tackle that because they will be too motivated to bring jpmorgan front and center and too
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motivated to tackle what the nasdaq did wrong and morgan stanley did. an argument we don't need to have. >> at the end of the day, what wall street does is an issue. how they did what they did, people are going to see what that is and that's not good. >> your point on the retail investor is what? if i were a retail investor and i was allocated, and i could get order confirmations and the analyst gave us permission to other investors. >> this was supposed to be the one that went back into the game and this was frustrating. i'm not disagreeing with you. the point is that people i don't think are near the table and i don't think that retail is supporting the market nor were they going to even if it went well. we have real problems to be investing. >> they got stuffed with a lot of shares and higher price.
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plunging 26% today as the company reiterated they are working closely with legal council to strengthen financing. join us with analysis on this. brian gamble, great to speak with you. how does the story play out? >> the news today was essentially feared that they were not only working on the financing package, but that the
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bankruptcy word might be coming into the equation. they did not talk to the rumors at all and went on to say they continue to work towards the refi. that is the reason that the stock tumble and they had a reissue of a contract earlier last week that was restructured and the ebitda is moving forward and that was the reason for the delay. >> even if it got a live line at this point, what are they hanging on for? when is that turn in coal going to happen? >> the turn it coal has a lot to do with the turn in gas. talked about coal and gas. it's an interrelated mix in the power sector. that's economics and quite sometime. not going to get better in the near term. i think that you look out to
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2013, 2014, that's where the strips start to move back into parody and called to start to play a bigger factor. >> i will hit you with an easier question. not all names are created equal. is there a fewer play and would you go with a walter or a and r? how would you play it if you are betting on metal ernlgic coal. the whole coal space is trading in tandem. >> both have better files than patriot does. they have better access it exports and better quality net coal on the whole. if you were to plug the rebound, both the names were better positioned. >> it's joe. is this more of a structural issue when you look at the imports to europe, they are down and look at the exports out of australia. up significantly, if you are an
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exporter, do you not face many months or years of depressed pricing? >> when you talked depressed pricing, it's relative. you go back three or four years and you talk about the trading well under $100. we are talking about coal on the met coal side, $215 is depressed. it is a little bit of a relative quotation. we are seeing international signs of weakening and the huge wild card in the equation. supplies from various sources. australia being one that you noted and does have the propensity to put the balance back on to the supply side. the u.s. guys have this. we have a spot in the market and we see asian customers being willing to in some cases eat the transportation disadvantage.
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>> great to speak with you. where do you go in the coal space in terms of the bhp australia strike? >> i don't think it's anywhere near the impact they had on the show. you guessed with the entering report out. called infection or inflection for the miners. they are long against kind of a mid-cap pgm and copper play. again, if the credit is blowing up to the fact that customers are walking away from contracts, major, major problems. >> that's why they took down the forecast. quickly, the other day, was it yesterday? >> could have been. >> you were saying coal, coal, coal. that was your pick. trading in tandem. >> the problem is when you trade this like 2/3, it doesn't matter what the headline is, even if you think it's a better name,
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the rest, you can't even put them in the class of all the other names. the best in breed is what people will buy. >> for it trades with the breed, it's the breed. >> what did we say? you have to buy this. 10% of whatever your position should be. you let the smoke clear. you want to carve the baby up. >> 9% on today's session and trading 18% below. if you are interested in getting social media with less volatility, the next guest has the answer. we have the fast funds pick. less is the operative word. a pretty volatile sector. >> correct. one stock here and a low cost way to play it.
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this is the chinese twitter. it's socl and small got rolled out in november. gld with $64 billion. a nice way to play this. >> in terms of facebook being added in a matter of days, is this a market-cap weight and should we be concerned that this is going to be hijacked by facebook? >> they will be sensitive to that and they hold about 70% of the fund. as facebook me trick ults into the fund, linked in is only about 12%. >> what do you think people will do? you have it breaking down from an immediate term perspective and social media is in lights. we have to short it out right.
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>> two ways to look at it. they are seeing diversification in this etf and people ran into linked in. they were gun-shy. as it's a smaller etf, i need to see it grow and the gld traded two million. they barely traded. >> this traded 160,000 shares. >> be careful. thanks for coming by. be sure to stay locked into fast money. an analyst who specializes in ipos will make the call on what the lack luster debut could mean. financials were the best performing group bouncing back on the handling of the ipo and continued concerns about the trading loss. mike is looking at a hedged way to get bullish. you see the trading action overthe past couple of days. >> it's interesting because we fielded a lot of phone calls
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from people expressing a great deal of interest. when will it be poised for a repound. less than times tangible, but the risks still linger. we don't really know how easily they will unwind and we have concerns and general macro economic concerns about the economy and everybody thinks that could go away. it gets hard to purchase the stock. if you buy the july 35 call and pay about 1.65, you have the upside exposure with mitigated risk if the stock rolled over again. one caveat with all of the interest and all of the volatility, the options premiums are elevated and you will be paying a higher price. it is justified by all of the risk factors we outlined. if the stock were to bounce back, it has a lot of upside. the stock was trading over $45 not that long ago.
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>> i am cust what you mead of the jpmorgan and jamie dimon said there is no buy back. it's a spend right now. >> how many different committees will they be meeting in front of. unlimited amount of meetings. for me they could do well with the first meeting or with the second meeting. there can be a silly question that he said um at the answer and the stock gets pummelled. >> the stock goes to 28. morgan stanley news burns in terms of transparency. it will be a political gong show. >> you get to options action and follow the show on twitter to get constant trade updates. how much should you fear america's fiscal clip. they are separating fact from fiction when it comes to the economy with the chief economist. he is up after this. if you are one of the millions of men
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the share on dells trading close to session lows. it was a miss on the top and the bottom line. sales and execution were not up to expectations. that is kind of the most obvious statement of the evening. they are starting to see improvement in federal spending in that price in asia and china led to flat revenues there. we continue to monitor the shares and they are seeing some softness in the after hours on the back of these results. there have been lots of ups and downs in stocks and if you are
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looking for a strategy in your portfolio, keith has a simple way to do it with a guide. >> what you top the do is use the vicks as your headlights. you don't have to trade the vicks options or triple butterfly based on the vicks. you have to watch the vicks. that goes down to 1415 and you sell a lot of stuff. we saw that in march. that was the low on the vicks. we have seen that hold for the last five years and i don't suppose that will change. on the upside, you have a range to get to you $26. it's an important trade loin of support. the vicks can go to 26. that is a bearish signal. >> let's move on to the next one. the tax hikes and spending cuts set to take effect and the bush era tax cuts and automatic spending cuts start in 2013. could a looming cliff weigh on the markets in the coming months. the next guest said yes and
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growth could be hit hard in 2013. the chief economist at goldman sacks and great to see you. in terms of the probability in terms of the impact, what is it and in terms of the forecast for the u.s., are they factored in already? >> we are factoring in fiscal head winds in 2013. a percentage point off of growth relative to what you would get because of some fiscal restraint. we do anticipate that most of the 4% of gdp or so that expires at the end of the year will ultimately be extended. we will not take effect in terms of hitting growth. of course there is uncertainty around there and we are getting up to an election and the markets of course are going to pay increasing attention to that as we approach the end of the year. >> it's tim.
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markets will pay attention to the other side of this too. with the fiscal falloff, you may have stimulus. do you believe that and is that part of the base scenario. even though people think there is very little left to do. >> we do think that there will be official stimulus. i think it's a pretty close call. i don't think that the get really decided on whether there will be additional easing, but we think that given what we see in financial conditions and given what we see in the fiscal policy and frankly given where we still see the economy, not just in terms of the clugish growth rate, but there is a lot of growing to make up still. we think that the case for additional stimulus is good. >> when you look at the globally interdetected market and the data points we have seen across
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the world, why does that not have you cutting your estimate and why should you be closer to 1.5%. >> it's primarily that it hasn't been a huge surprise over the last couple of months that we have seen pay back for numbers that we think were probably artificially elevated in the winder and two factors in particular that helped a lot in the winter months and less now or hurting. number one, the swing in the weather. the exceptionally warm winter did boost the employment numbers. number two, the cycle was a support and it's now less of a support. >> it's joe. are we back to the fiscal cliff conversation? is there a time element where we have to in essence unlock the grid that we have in d.c. and tackle the issues we face? >> for would be better to resolve these things earlier and
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they are getting up to an election. it's not realistic to expect to have clarity until after the election. then the question will be whether we get everything resolved during the lame duck period or whether we have to wait until sometime in early 2013 before we get clarity. the election will play a in that and i don't think we are going to get an early resolution before the election. >> thanks for your time. chief economist at goldman sachs. in terms of the markets overall, anticipating the u.s. elections here as well, are those caps on market performance? >> it feels a little telegraph and you see a temporary fix. it's not going to be as dire as we are making it out to be and the markets will be lower. >> we will take a break and take a look at the stocks and our
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next guest has it on his radar. he oversees close to a billion. he will tell you which of these is his top pick right now. more fast straight ahead. then don't get nickle and dimed by high cost investments and annoying account fees. at e-trade, our free easy-to-use online tools and experienced retirement specialists can help you build a personalized plan. and with our no annual fee iras and a wide range of low cost investments, you can execute the plan you want at a low cost. so meet with us, or go to etrade.com for a great retirement plan with low cost investments. ♪ [ creaking ]
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>> morgan stanley issuing this statement to cnbc's maria bartiromo with the revisions downward. morgan stanley writes it followed the same procedures for the offering that it follows for all ipos. they are in compliance with all applicable regulations after they released the filing on may 9th with guidance with respect to business trends. a copy was forwarded to all of morgan stan le's institutional and retail investors and it was widely publicized at the time. in response to the information, a significant number of analysts were investing in investor
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education and reduced the views to reflect their estimate of the new information. these revised views were taken into account with the pricing. just this afternoon after hours, the tech tear of the common wealth of massachusetts issued a subpoena to find out more information and behind this disclosure of information during the road show, you saw their shares are reacting in the news in the after showers session and dun by 1.5%. it doesn't seem to end here. the statement to satisfy your questions. >> the statement reiterates, this is what we do. what the people think you do and what you do may be different things. these banks have been politicized. start to walk down the path where you have two periods. what it is that the banks do and
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whether or not it's right. it's a big topic and it will be open to a lot of opinion. >> who would have thought they would focus on the downgrade instead of this. this is a moving target for them and only got worse. i would expect them to hit harder today during normal hours versus after hours. >> as keith points out, this is what wall street does. they were told to fix what you do. that argument is front and center for the remainder of the spring into earnings season. i don't know how when you look at the market you cannot understand that that's going to have a negative impact whether you believe the investors are coming back and whether you believe they are at a bottom. that's a negative argument. >> morgan stan le is trading and that's called the lehman line for a reason. that's not unprecarious. they need to deal with this. >> let's move on. time for the fast money portfolio.
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we are bringing one best stock to own. the fund leading the s&p by more than 15%. joining us now is chuck, portfolio manager. it's a pleasure to speak with you. >> nice to be here. >> i want to go to the top pick. mastercard. why do you like it? >> mastercard and visa both are phenomenal businesses and the returns on sales that are in the mid-35% range. the two of them along with others are the major rails that electronic transfer of value takes place throughout the world and that is a small percentage of transactions. 85% of all transactions are done with cash and paper. there is a huge wind at their back and they get paid on terms of gross dollar value.
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very high returns and no debt. selling at a price to free cash flow. that's lower than their growth rate. i think it's a terrific opportunity. >> in terms of the side of your state, mastercard doubled as of the last filing. it is cheaper and both stocks at a 52-week high both on may 1st. mastercard is cheaper than visa and affected by the durbin amendment. what are the other reasons why mastercard is a stand out? >> at the time of the durbin amendment, they had way less exposure. maybe mid-teens and debit and transactions and visa had larger. in addition, mastercard earns over half of the revenue outside the united states. visa does not own the european brand name. they have to buy the caster c d
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card. they have a terrific manager. >> i'm on board with your view. the ebitda margin is 20%. what do you think about the dividend side. that's a disappointment with the company that is this profitable and despite the fact that they are growing, don't you think they could be doing better on the dividend? >> they just doubled it. nothing wrong with that. >> on a percentage basis and a gross yield, it is nothing special. >> every business is confronted with the issue of how they reallocate capital and what the decision is. quite frankly, mastercard and visa are unlikely to be able to find businesses that can earn the high returns as they are earning in the basic business. their opportunity are to make strategic opportunities and raise their dividend as they doubled it and buy back shares.
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they can buy back several billions of dollars worth of shares annually with the free cash flow. >> we have to leave it there. chuck it from the focus fund. we want to go to the contrarian of the night. you do not like mastercard. >> i look at it as one company that has sold off a little bit and as you have seen the market roll over, i think mastercard has further to fall. i think e sba discounted here and with pay pal could be a huge threat to mastercard and visa. i would let it fall over quite a bit 15 to 20% more. >> mastercard and visa don't have a high correlation. just keep that in mind. >> next, facebook has been a flop since the ipo, but there could be hope for the stock. the top five turn around stories when we come back.
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coming up on "mad money," cramer is seeing if the target should be in your sights. is it finally time to bite into apple. cramer checks the charts and conedison coming up at the top of the hour. much more fast money straight ahead. ahead. had a break is when i was on maternity leave. i have retired from doing this one thing that i loved. now, i'm going to be able to have the time to explore something different. it's like another chapter. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of: fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank. like no-fee atms -- all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now, depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture.
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>> welcome back to fast money. it may be a high profile, but facebook is far from the first to take hard hits in the early days. it's not that rare to see an ipo trade down more than 10% in the first days or weeks in trading and it doesn't mean disaster for the stock. joining us now on the fast line is top turn arounds. nick einhorn, i guess all the ipo examples are far in our distant memories, but walk us through some. amazon comes to mind with a good first day and fell below the ipo price. >> when amazon went public, i was up 31% the first day and it slipped down quickly. 7% below the offer price. up quickly since then and even
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though it came down first, it made a huge debt. >> a lot of people even though we walked thru the rest, all great examples and at the same time they are very stark differences between any of the new issues and facebook. for amazon, they sold 3 million shares on the first day of trade and facebook sold 421 million shares. doesn't that factor in? >> of course. there so few deals as large as facebook, you are looking at a small sample size. certainly i mean that happened once in a billion range that have been able to post a strong performance after weak initial trading, but certainly there not a lot of ones to lock at of facebook stature. >> wynn was down 15% in the first month of trading and now the stock is up to $160. are there common threats amongst
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all the turn around story as to when the turn happens? >> it carries. a lot of stocks had trouble because of market conditions. rack space is a good example. it went public and fell 20% in the first day and down as much as 65%. you bought it as low, it's up 4,000% and it's a huge run. you will get the stocks that came out of the post bubble period where there was a lot of fear in the market, that's kind of -- one thing that is common with facebook is the market has not been great. that's part of what i think is part of the deal. although not the same media. the 2008 situation. >> we will leave it there. nik einhorn of renaissance capital and that's fine and good at this point. even in the after hours, they would be trading at a new low. >> i couldn't disagree more.
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between 1996 and 2000, the yankees won four world series and it doesn't make me feel better that they will reverse course. groupon and zynga is fresh in people's minds. facebook, the presentation of what's happened over the last couple of days is prevalent in investor minds. >> there so many bigger issues in markets with facebook and realize why we are talking about it, this is not a significant issue for investors overall. i'm sorry to burst the bubble. >> any individual stock is not a big deal for investors unless it's a widly held stock. >> you talked about it on friday, but on friday when you walked into the floor of the exchange, they had a listing. >> to me they are so excited about it. >> we have to pull the plug on this. we will be right back. stay tuned.
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