tv Fast Money CNBC May 24, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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immediately cause their yields to rise and would end germany's status as a safe haven. at some point europe risks carrying the entire global economy down with it. we, of course, will be watching it. that will do it for us on "closing bell." thank you so much for being here tonight. i'll see you tomorrow on "closing bell." hope you'll follow me on twitter and google plus, @mariabartiromo is the handle. melissa, take it away. >> facebook mess day two and now it's europe who needs some friends. >> europe must do everything in its power. >> but the currency continues to crash and keeps their stock market in check. >> given the multiple flat, you have an earnings growth that's been about 3% this year, $100 per share in earnings for that to be 500 this year, $106 for next year. put the three things together. that's the framework thinking about what's happening and that's why we remain 1250 for a
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price target at the end of the year. >> the mark faber is here with his gloom, doom and boom forecast, joe has your hedge and b.k. has your trade of the day. fresh from the trading floor, it's "fast money." live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. morgan stanley just wrapping up a conference call with brokers to discuss issues surrounding facebook's ipo. cnbc's kayla tausche joins us with the very late sneer is reconciling the issues botched last week, morgan stanley's lead underwriter did offer the most leads and still working through a backlog of those facebook trades and the conference call said that -- that the reconciliation process for that -- for that trade process could go into next week. outstanding issues remain, even as majority of trades have been reconciled at this point. that according to a source familiar with the call, but the source also said that it was discuss that had no morgan
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stanley customer would pay more than $43 for a trade. the bank will be on the hook for the $2 difference. that's been the trend as the dust settles, brokers making good on client losses and taking those losses on to their own books. jpmorgan has also taken the charge for any trades it was forced to reconcile on behalf of clients, that according to a source as well. we reported earlier today that citadel securities is facing losses for trades it executed for retrail brokerages like e-trade and td ameritrade. melissa, the short story is that this will be a long list of damages. of course, claims were due to the nasdaq on monday night, so it's going to be at least a one-month process for finra to decide where the money goes here. >> on the call, was management taking any calls from the brokeers? >> no q&a, just about 15 minutes long, bare bones, getting down to the basics and discussing where to go from here, that there were still issues outstanding and that it could go into next week? thanks a lot for that update.
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appreciate it, the latest on the morgan stanley conference call. we don't have a sense yet as to what the losses might be facing morgan stanley or any of the other banks on wall street and could be a mention before we get any sort of idea. at this point is it way too early to say, you know what? i'm going to take a gamble and go into morgan stanley and hope for the best? >> i think it's too early to go into morgan stanley on that reason alone. look, they made an awful lot of money supporting theistic at 38, so net-net they might have actually come out on top on this. i think the problem with morgan stanley now though, the crown jewel of their franchise, was the wealth management side, and i think to grow that now is going to take a little bit. this is a black eye, and it will take a bit to see any growth out of that. >> i know it's a surprise we're talking about facebook yet again, but for morgan stanley the residual liability is all on kind of the regfd side, the s.e.c. side, the latest chapter people are paying attention to, this pandora's box of vagaries that exists in the s.e.c.'s arsenal. in other words, they are going
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to claim that actually the company made disclosures to the brokers and the syndicate who told some clients, not all clients, and it's all about regfd is full disclosure, folks, and this is a question of whether people were really disadvantaged by not hearing everything that selective clients got. i don't know that anyone will be able to prove this, but this is something that's hanging over morgan stanley. we can quantify the losses that were paid, and i don't think this is material at all for morgan stanley quite honestly. if anything, we're talking about reputational stuff, stuff that bks is mentioning. i think people will forget about this in a month. >> doc, you're the contrarian and what's your opinion about morgan stanley and any of the other brokerages? >> i'm agreeing with what they are saying but the contrarian side this responsibility doesn't fall on morgan stanley but squarely on facebook. regfd, fair disclosure, not full disclosure, fair disclosure falls on facebook. >> during the ipo process they are in a quiet period. there's no fair disclosure for
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facebook before the period they are in an ipo process. >> well, so -- >> right? >> apparently they just posted it up on myspace, melissa, and -- and that's why people -- that's why nobody saw it because nobody uses that anymore. >> jon, you have a myspace page personally? >> no, i don't. >> wait, wait, wait. let me ask you something. >> sure. >> if during the course of their road sure facebook becomes aware there's a material change in their business that makes it different than what's currently in the s-1, i don't know if that's what happened, if that's what you're referring to or morgan stanley or another broker bringing their numbers down during that period? >> the brokers, correctly, you're right, karen, did bring their numbers down based on had a they were told by facebook on the move to mobile and how much that was actually not helping but hurting the adopters to click on anything on mobile, which i think all of us fall into that category. we're not going to click on stuff on mobile. again, i think they have to adjust that with the s.e.c. and with their filing. i don't think that you can put
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that on the shoulder of all of the syndicate or even just the lead in this case, morgan stanley, and say it was their responsibility. nng so. we'll see what the securities lawyers say. i'm sure if you're a plaintiff's attorney you'll sue anybody, but i believe this does not fall under morgan stanley, i think squarely on to facebook. >> amazing what we might have been talking about aside from facebook because it's the one-week anniversary of facebook's debut tomorrow, so imagine we'd have nothing to talk about here on this desk. >> time flies. >> if it never went public. >> i think there's a pile-on effect, particularly for the capital marketplace. these capital market police, they topped out at end of march. the real story in the near term is tear ability to grow earnings. you'll find out about that in july. if you believe this quarter has been a favorable up, you step in and buy jpmorgan, goldman sachs. i don't necessarily believe that. i believe earnings will be challenged, and i would expect that when you hear that earnings story the guidance will also be
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lower as well. that might be the moment when you step in and buy them. i wouldn't sell them short, but i think it's a no touch until you hear the earnings story and then you take action. >> all right. next trade here, big buyers in chesapeake, black rock increasing it stake from 5 million shares from 1 million shares in the last ten days and bloomberg reporting carl icahn has become one of cheese peek's largest shareholder. the activist investor may now have a stake of more than 4% in the company. in the after-hours session shares are at after-hours session highs here, and we had been talking about activism in chesapeake for some time. when would it become an activist target? karen, had you ever taken a look at this after the aubry mcclendon fiasco? >> no, i think it's ripe for an activist who feels like they can get a handle on it, i don't, and i think the board and the corporate governance, hard pressed to think of a worst example so to me that's good enough to stay away. in order for icahn have have to
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pile he'd need 33 million shares, 5%. that would trigger a disclosure, a 13-d or g, normally files a 13-g, haven't seep that yet, and he kind of has to do it and he has a little bit of a history with making money and being an activist, that's for sure. >> go back. i think the prudent play off this is chesapeake mid-stream, chkm, a derivative off chesapeake. actually surprise that had chesapeake is not up more than it is off the news. one of the things buying chesapeake, have you to believe that natural gas prices have presented a trough. i think they have. natural gas prices if you want to make had a play like at the c.o.g. which has had a tough past six months and appears to be bottoming. >> why would you get out and why would you be recommending it at this point? >> they suffered another new leg lower, as did chesapeake about ten days ago. just from a risk management standpoint, move to the sidelines on it. i'm not buying chesapeake
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mid-stream tomorrow. i've played that card once and lost, but if you are going to play chesapeake i would recommend rather than going directly to chk, you go to chkm. >> what you said about natural gas, looks like it bottomed out here. we had the natural gas numbers this morning where, yes, there was an increase in storage but it wasn't as large as everybody expected and that's been a trend here. not even three months ago people were talking about how they would have to give away natural gas because all the storage was filled up. that doesn't look like it's going to happen. utilities are switching to natural gas. the usage of natural gas is really starting to pick up. i'm long natural gas and also like upl, another one joe's been all over. >> if you look at chart at nga, this looks like it goes straight to the 200, 225, so i agree with b.k.s. this is clearly all momentum, and joe can speak to this for a decade that he's watched all of this go on. this to me is an overdone story, probably not even supply and demands that it's trading on
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right now. it's in the market and they are buying it. >> yeah. there's been a small reallocation out of oil speculative bets into northerly gas which is raising it as well. >> let's hit some after-hours action. we're watching shares of verifone dropping after guidance fell short of expectation and the hot payment area, but they are absorbing the acquisition of hypercalm which gets them more into europe and maybe that is also a concern for this company, their exposure after this $485 million acquisition. you've been in this space, not through verifone. >> but through jimalto which i like. global payment, gpn is one that's interesting. the stock got hit. i don't know if you remember there was some information leaked, and it was 1.5 million cards, so the stock really got hit. i think they seem to have that under control. that stock is cheap and not a bad way to play it right here. >> with the stock trading it below 42 it takes it below the
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intraday moving average for the first time since jane 29th. verifone close to 41 bucks is a name you want to buy and there's an announcement that they are partnering with ebay to provide papal. if you're long you stay with ebay. >> ebay launched a couple of other deals with abercrombie & fitch today, and a couple other things from that point of sale. i think ebay is the way to play the space, tremendous growth in papal, and that's one that i like. >> let's hit the market here. stocks getting another turnaround, but tech was the worst performing sector of the day. emc among the biggest loser and you're troubled by tech's inability to move higher here. >> and i'm troubled by the guidance, continual guidance that we talked about on the show the other night. the problem really with dell is not so much the current quarter.
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it was management didn't step forth as they normally would and say here's what our full year is going to look like. they see something in august. they see something out there in terms of corporate i.t. spending, something we haven't seen in the last two or three years. it's obviously a head wind and not just affect the dell. heard the same thing from cisco, a very problematic earnings report that's bleeding now into the f-5 of the world, and when you look at emc that's a name that's best in breed. for emc to be down close to 6% today, again, the outlook in terms of enterprise spending is very troubling. >> i fess what you're saying about dell in terms of pc sales and enterprise but what i don't get about dell, now that hewlett-packard's earnings is out, hewlett-packard saw a small increase in computer sales for the quarter and dell about not? where does the problem lie? is delta throwing the kitchen sink at this thing? >> i think that hewlett-packard
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has already thrown the kitchen sink at the problems that troubled them, and dell has been the beneficiary in terms of price action and capital flows for a lot of problems that hewlett-packard has been faced with over the last couple of years. i thought the price action in hewlett-packard, by the way, was a little bit disappointing. you would expect much move of a lift from the long side given how depressed that stock has been. >> want to say just quick back. emc is incredibly depressed but that's what you have to look at as a selloff. >> i think it is hb doing peter. >> yeah. >> that wasn't on the radar screen anywhere, that hp could do great. >> coming up, cnbc's phil le but a has a report on what's sending boeing to soar to new heights. and what lies behind that curtain could be your best money-making opportunity right now. it's our saucie trade of the day.
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airlines taking flight day. jpmorgan raising price targets across the board on the airlines, also raising estimates citing lower fuel prices and sustained demand. will the names continue to gain here? what i thought was the most interesting, and it's obvious that we follow the energy markets very closely, but i didn't realize that jet fuel has actually come down 40 cents a gallon since february which is shocking. >> it's come down tremendously, and demand has really stayed there. that's the thing, i think. as anybody when has flown recently knows that every plane is packed. capacity has been reduced, so those two combinations are really fueling probably for the first time -- >> no pun intended. >> yeah, exactly. >> fueling, that's clever. >> yeah, thank it. that's it for me. that's all i have to say, but it's actually a fairly
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compelling case that morgan stanley makes here, that even if demand were to drop down to 2009 levels, the airlines would still probably earn 40% more than they did last year, so it's pretty compelling case. i didn't buy them today because they were up so much, but i'll be looking at them on a pullback. >> and operating profits, according to jpmorgan, will increase by more than 50% for lcc and ual, about 40% for jetblue and southwest about 20% for alaska airlines. >> i think if you're going to buy the airlines, you'll buy them on the ability to charge more fees and reduce capacity. i completely disageothat you're buying them on the premise that jet fuel prices have come in. i've bott enough jet fuel over the years to understand it and to have it at 2.93. in the fall of last year you were basically trading 280, this is a pullback rather off of a
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335 high. a little bit of a modest correction and not the premies in which you step out and buy the airlines. >> and i don't think this windfall which is 5.5 billion they are talking about on the jet fuel station along. i think the time you add up to the cost optimization e at with where they hit their operating leverage, you might have fuel costs back to where they were. >> take this opportunity to have the play in the other sectors. probably when they merge with tam airlines it's going to be the largest airlines in the world. can you buy this year in new york. these are guys that are growing. as latin america grows, the world cup, the olympics, cargo and passenger growth, and they are not able to squeeze their consumers the way they do here quite honestly. >> and if you believe the jewel side of the story and that
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couple to operating profits. they have two. they are not edged for the year? >> i think these ghost about following any policy that any airline would. >> you know, it's this time of year. memorial day, it's fleet week. full force here in norbert. we often see a lot of our service men and rim. >> that's why guy adami isn't here with us tonight. we thought it was a good time in military contractors and how they are targeting future growth and for boeing that means planes without pilots. cnbc's phil lebeau joins us live from chicago. phil, fill us in. >> reporter: we're talking about the scan eagle for boeing which has become a huge hit, social for the defense division which sen berets half the revenue and
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in the defense division the drones are taking off. boeing has become the sky in the site for america's military. we fly over battle field video back to the troops in the field so they can access that. >> reporter: it's flown from libya to afghanistan, far from where it's built in hood river, oregon. we went there and launched the drone ourselves with the tug of a cord. >> three, through, one -- wow. once launched, it's controlled from a mobile command unit. it's been three minutes since we launched the scan eagle anywhere, i can't even here it, but one thing for sure the can eagle can see me. >> i think early on it was considered kind of an add-on, but now it's clearly an
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intergreated part of the missions and in many, many cases it's a mission critical element. >> so successful boeing is building the next generation scan eagle with more technical capabilities, but thing won't change the low tech pray it's rereceived. it's snagged out of the air by rope. it's vefn to be a very retable system in the yar. seven the success over the scan eagle they is a sk will there be more products from boeing and yes, let's be clear. in the defense business at boeing, part of the overall portfolio, a growing part of the portfolio but still a joel part of it. melissa? >> are there rivet sector amgations for this drun?
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>> absolutely. they are already talking about police departments, agriculture companies, geology companies, companies that can use this so they can do surface mapping. applications are at the beginning and we're gest the kink of seeing them at the mark. >> mark, i know you've krahn up the trade on -- it's great to be at the forefront in general. i think it's you are pecks agents that it will decline, a function of the where ending, boeing has basically flat-labored on the year so if you are to make a bullish bet the better would pay stomp is take vam of some of the east options. can you spend $1.75 for those
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with a lot on the horizon if you're inclined to make a bullish bet. >> when i think of boeing, think of miss call cliff, i i did not good for the defense sector. >> that's right. it has to return through share of capital, shayshire healeders. you look at llc, through buyback,y will creation and n.o.c., returning shareholder dollars. >> quickly, the most very muchly involved more han half of their revenue coming to that spaet. i would emergency that. >> follow the he is an twitter. coming up next, the official start of summer is just weeks away and we're checking the
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square. big moves in volatility this week, but no one seems to be willing to take a firm stand on whether it's too high or too low. dr. j. points out that all futures are moving in concert with spot vix which as you pointed out, dr. j, is rare. why? >> it's always a sign, for instance, like one of mike coe's customers or one of ours will stand up and be an aggressive seller out there on the scale when you see a pop in volatility. in other words, they think several months out, it's going to move offer in lock term with the short-term implied volatility. that's not the case. virtually across the board, all the fuse, all the way out to september, we see them all moving up and down by about the same amount every day. today they were all up about 50 cents or something like that, so when you see those all lined up like that, again, nobody who is significantly large as far as, you know, tens of millions or larger on the trading volume, is going to step up. that tells you that they are not
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sure about the direction at all, and that's something that, you know, has just been happening basically for about the last two weeks. i imagine that's going to change pretty quick, especially with all the talk we've heard from monti and merkel over the last 24 hours. >> mike, what did you notice about this? >> well, i think the critical input here is that basically one of the things that you need to focus on is that the puts of the s&p actually have a little bit more weight than say the at the money options do, and one of the things we have observed is that the puts have been bitter bid, the puts relative to the action have been slightly more expensive than they usually are lately, and that's one of the things creating support for the vix, and the issue is with all of the concerns going on overseas, people aren't sure when that's going to happen, so they are really trying to stretch out some of their protection a little bit and make sure regardless of when a greek exit might happen they will have something back on to take advantage of it.
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>> where are the technicals headed in the market? our next guest says to expect the markets to remain choppy. chris verone is with strategic research partners and joins us here at the nasdaq. walk us through the s&p 500 and what you see for the summer. >> i think the big picture, that we ask ourselves, is this an oversold bound or the start of more meaningful events in when you look at the chart, this looks more like an oversold bounce to me. we had a breakdown a week ago through 1340. that's new resistance for me. when we look at what we saw in the summer of 2010 and 2011, we spent several days, several weeks and months to stabilize. we're early in the stabilization process. i want to stay offensive, not out of woods yet. if you take a look at small-cap chart, that has been weaker. that's led to the downside. big rounded top over the last two, three months on the r2k, broke down through 780. that's now new resistance.
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i think the next weeks and months will remain challenging, as they did the past couple of years. i stayed offensive. utilities, staples and even something like copper, the message we're getting from traditional risk assets is one that's not great. copper was weak again. the past couple of days, the s&p is up a percent and a half. >> chris, all sorts of questions here on the desk. >> the let's go with copper because, i mean, to me 340, copper is bouncing off at least a double bottom. take it to a chart very further back. everything you're saying i totally agree but to put our slapshot, markets are putting the foil on here. in other words, you've seen the s&p basically close above -- this is the fourth close in positive territory which to me, at least in the short term reaffirms the reverse a. again, i've got double and triple bottoms on major charts around the globe. you guys wrote a great piece on brazil today. a case in point.
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fundamentals are good, the world is scary, but it looks like we're setting up for very strong bouts which goes for the next couple of weeks. >> i think we'll get that bounce on the copper chart, maybe 360, 320. i'm look to sell strength. i'm looking to fade strength. when we look at say the -- the small-cap chart, the large-cap chart, there's a lot of overhead resistance that we only broke through last week so i'd be surprise federal this things lasts more than two or three weeks on the upside. i think the next couple months are -- will look more like what we saw in 2011 than in 2010. >> chris, let me ask you really the biggest technical question right now. the upside is relatively easy. we can figure that out. it's the downside and the break below the intraday moving average. the break is right around 1280. >> exactly. >> what happens if that break? where do we go? >> we started the year on 1257 on the s&p chart, and if you remember, there were a lot of price gaps that first week of january. we look at price gaps as unfinished business, so we think
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that the s&p has to come down, stabilize around 1250, 1260, where we started the year and fill some of the gaps and ultimately set the base that would set the stage for a nice third or fourth-quarter rally. we don't think we're there just yet. >> all right, chris. great to see you. thanks for stopping by. that would be a long ways down from here to set up for a decent fourth quarter. >> it would be, and you could certainly make the fundamental case, but i think a lot of the scariness that tim talked about is priced into the market. there are a lot of good things going on. just look at the u.s. housing sector. housing prices are actually going up. that's very positive, so i understand where he's coming, from but i think there's a better chance of a pop here this a decline. >> all right. coming up next. find out why the boss at imax thinks this summer will be one for the record books for his company. richard gelfond, imax ceo, is up next right after this. stay tuned.
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imax is gearing up for a very big blockbuster summer with huge box office numbers expected from films like "men in black 3," "the amazing spider-man" and "the dark knight rises" hot off the super hero hit "the avengers" as well as "the hunger games." joining us now is their ceo, richard gelfond. >> it looks like a very good summer. "avatar's" numbers are amazing, closing in on 500 million. >> you mean "avengers." you said "avatar, ""still. >> closing in on 500 million domestically and in imax we've done over 60 million so far, and i think it's may so that's a good way to lead into the season. >> right. how can we understand what your
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cut is of the box office is this when we hear the staggering numbers each weekend, what does imax take in? >> well, if it's playing in an imax theater, we get 12.5% of the revenues from the studio, and depending on the business model, whether it's a joint venture or whether it's a sale, we get somewhere between 3% and 20% from the exhibitors. >> and how does that change week over week? does that shift as the movie stays -- >> no, unlike in traditional 35 millimeter, it's a fixed amount. so making it in simple terms. we get somewhere between 20% of the box office -- if you look at the whole network, we get about 20% of the box office. that's the easiest way to think about it. >> and does the average imax viewer spend more money at the concession stand than the other 35 million? >> it depends on market-to-market. remember, we're in 50 countries. in a way we're a very unique animal because extors tend to be regional. we're really the only kind of technology provider in the space so concessions really vary from
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area to area. >> hey, richard, it's tim. you have a bit of a high-class problem because you traded a high multiple because the fact people are very excited about 2012. the consensus is somewhere around 116, 117 on ebitda. do you guys think the bar is too high for your stock, and at this point, again, everything that you're saying is an extremely exciting story that i think on some level people have priced in. as traders here, we actually think you're doing a fantastic job, but you have a very high multiple that's scary for me. >> i don't agree. i think the consensus is $1 and we're trading at $20. when do i my long-term plan and use just flat for film, what the box office is per screen and i grow my network, i get eps growth rates north of 50%, so i don't think, you know, paying 20 times this year's consensus is expensive at all. >> when you talk about your long-term plan the last few times you visited with us, you've talked actively about china and your presence there, and during the break we talked
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about how many times you've been there which is astonishing to me in the last couple of years. >> astonishing to my family, too. >> do you see the significant slowdown there that those are presenting right now in terms of the economy itself? >> we haven't at imax, and, you know, we're just a small sample but our box office in the first quarter was up 30% over what it was a year ago. and it wasn't -- you t wasn't -- "avengers" didn't come until the second quarter and "hunger games" doesn't come until for a couple weeks now. it seems pretty good for us. remember, we're a bit in the luxury space so in the luxury space that's held on really well so it's not necessarily representative of the whole economy. >> i know, rich, early on, had you a good read on what a big flop "john carter" was going to be be based on what you saw of it in the pre-screenings, i believe, in your theaters. >> you're confusing me, melissa. >> no, okay. >> thought it was going to be gigantic? >> well, when we bought into, it we thought it would be a real big blockbuster. you know, as it got closer and
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you looked at the tracking, it was clear it didn't come together in that way, but we -- you know, we never thought it was going to be a flop. >> can you tell us what you're expecting for "men in black 3" which is the next -- i believe it's going to premiere or start showing tonight at midnight? >> well, the tracking for it is pretty good, you know, and i think the numbers -- the estimates in the community are all over the place. i think for the -- for the long weekend, the estimates you hear from most analysts is somewhere between $75 and $950 million. >> just about out of time, bottom line, the acquisition of the amc entertainment chain, the wanda deal? >> i think very good for amc, very good for exhibition in america. they are going to really reinvest in the business, and they are our partner in china and do a great job branding and operating. >> okay. rich, great to see you. thanks a lot for stopping by. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> rich gelfond, ceo of imax. you're asking about concessions, you're interested in the movie
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chain side of the story. >> i'm trying to understand who makes money. >> coming up next when it comes to retail, should you save or spend? we'll settle the score. it's good for the entire community. at bank of america, we know the impact that local businesses have on communities. that's why we extended $6.4 billion in new credit to small businesses across the country last year. because the more we help them, the more we help make opportunity possible. [ man announcing ] what we created here. what we achieved here. what we learned here.
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well, both are important. let's be clear. they are but this is important too. [ man ] the receivables. [ male announcer ] michelin knows it's better for xerox to help manage their finance processing. so they can focus on keeping the world moving. with xerox, you're ready for real business. mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve.
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and drexler was blamed. it was steve jobs, a gap gord member works gave him the news. >> i left gap not feeling that great about myself. you know, i was let go. >> reporter: you were fired. >> i was fired, let go, fired, whatever. >> reporter: james colter is a co-founder of texas pacific group, the private equity firm that acquired a majority stake in j. crew in 1997. you weren't thinking, ah this, guy's just been fired by one of the major retailers in the country. there's a stigma or anything else? >> in this world this is better than peyton manning being a free agent. there was a moment in time. >> that was sneak peek at "j. crew and the man who dressed america." david faber takes a look at retail legend mickey drexler, how he transformed the gap and how he's revitalized another american classic. catch the premiere tonight, 10:00 p.m. eastern time and pacific time here on cnbc.
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so logically we want to take a look at the various retailers touched by this, the gap, amazing what mickey drexler did when he was there. he was behind a lot of the sort of iconic products at the gap like khakis, khakis, for instance. >> what we take for granted and the proliferation of stores. remember when they started building stores out, it was incredible. i tried to get in on the j. crew -- tried to buy equity with him on the deal, but, no, apparently didn't have room. i'm sure they are going to make a fair amount of money. >> faber was talking on "squawk on the street" this morning and said the intention obviously with the private equity backing is an exit, and an exit would be an ipo. in this sort of environment what would be the comparison, the comparables? would it be the gap, ann taylor? >> or abercrombie & fitch, that type of a name is what you want to look at. i think in the retail space, the earnings have been so lumpy that it's hard to really get a handle on them. i think the one big trend in retail, heard it all over the place, is that retailers are going online. they are spending an awful lot of money online. that's the place to be, so
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there's two ways to play it, play one via oracle or two via fedex and ups. >> also going international, and the gap almost has more iconic brand value in asia than it does here. gone from 4% of sales in asia five years ago to now 9%, and i think there's a lot more to go, and i think they need to continue that because it's trading at a multiple now that it's not relatively cheap compared to its history. 15 times earnings. this is a company that needs to be growing, and i think that they are, and i think they are making the move because that brand actually has more value i think across borders than it does here. >> can't have a retail discussion without noting today the big moves we saw in tiffany, on worse than expected earnings, and also walmart, the other side of the coin. >> yeah. >> fresh 12-year high in today's session. >> and clearly i am wrong in what my expectation was, that the luxury end is where you want to be. you're seeing a significant slowdown right now, in particular in the jewelry. obviously that's why tiffany declining. it seems as though retail is gravitating towards the walmart's, the targets, the
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costcos. >> maybe even jarred. >> and the tjxs of the world. >> no snide remarks. >> maybe everything begins with "k." >> we went through a quarter where discounting was the theme, and i think everything looks at the real discounting, it's the hypermarket model that worked in 2008 and 2009. it's working again. >> what do you have on retail? >> you know, it's really interesting. tiffany's, we saw a lot of put activity going up into the earnings today, but of the other retailers that just got mentioned, tjx is actually the one where we have seen a pretty significant increase in put open interest over the course of the last couple of weeks. it's now double how much there is in the calls, and actually that's the only one of the retailers that is seeing that kind of activity. i don't know if that's because perhaps people think that it's run too faf too fast. the stock has obviously had a terrific year. >> one last thing. i just think that this trade, i went long walmart where we are and short amazon. they are two gigantic retailers. how amazon can trade with the valuation that it does while
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walmart trades at the valuation that it does is -- it confounds me. >> dr. j, would you agree with karen on those being a pair trade, amazon and walmart? >> i'm with her on the walmart side of the trade, though after the recent run i've sold a bunch of calls up here. i don't have a lot of upside room left, karen, with walmart, but i'd say also to the tiffany discussion if i could, mel, the sig, another jewelry chain, really opened down hard and then rebounded about $2 very quickly, we bounded a lot more than tiffany's did, and there's really no such thing as a one-day event in stocks, so look for a little more of that carry through tomorrow for tiffany's, and maybe you'll get a chance again at a sig or ultra as far as them being hit, you know, because they are being tarred with the same brush. >> yeah. >> and, of course, cignet xwleets the triumverate of the mall jewellers and that would be jarred. >> don't act like you don't know
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about jarred. >> let's move on here. coming up next, it's what we've been waiting for all show long. we will reveal the trade of the day, a saucie trade of the day at that. what lies behind that curtain is one of the best trading days on this desk right now, so you've got to stay tuned to find out what it is. more "fast" straight ahead. wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the company's bottom line, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby and good night" ] ♪ af-lac ♪ aflac [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. [ yawning sound ] i'm an expert on softball. and tea parties. i'll have more awkward conversations than i'm equipped for because i'm raising two girls on my own. i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. massmutual is owned by our policyholders so they matter most to us.
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welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. we have been waiting the entire show for this very moment. >> tim's leaving. >> and it's finally here. >> that's not nice. it is time for our trade of the day, so beakers, tell us what's behind that curtain. >> behind that curtain is the saucy trade of the day heinz, hnz. they missed wall street estimates and still had good earnings, the stop gap down. i bought it on the gap down this morning, and the basic reason why you get a 3.5% dividend yield. increased their dividend every year since 2002, even during the commodity spikes in '07 and '80 and even during the downturn in '08. would you rather buy a two-year
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treasury note that yields 0.29% or heinz, the best selling ketchup in the world, that yields 3.5%? >> that's fair, but oftentimes the choice is not just simply between a stock and a bond. it's a stock versus another dividend-paying stock so in terms of the fundamentals on heinz what do you like about it? >> just the steady earnings flow on this, managing their business well. they are looking at some kind of food inflation, but they are actually able to get some price increases as well. talked about 4% food inflation this year and actually since the beginning of the quarter the food prices have come down, particularly in tomatoes. >> i think it's a saucy call and a good call. asia-pacific has grown from 15% to 22% in the last five years, and this is the sauce of an emerging market and the valuation that's decent with the dividend pickup. >> glad you could catch up with the trade. >> was it worth, it yeah? >> that's right. >> let's -- let's get some viewer tweets. we love answering the tweets that you send in.
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dan tweets to us what is your call, guys, on bac? >> karen? >> long and wrong. i'm long bac. i just think that, you know, as i always look at it's valuation trading at 38, i don't know exactly the discount to book. got hit a little bit on the jpmorgan issue which i think it should not have. i like it right here. own it from higher. >> i think the stock trades between 6 1/4 and 775 until we get past and north of $10. >> it's a stock you might not want to hold if there's going to be volatility in the eurozone. >> in the financial space i'd rather be in the wells fargo, much more leverage to the home market and bank of america has too many skeletons in their closet to buying. >> what caused the euro and stock divergence over the last day and a half?
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tim? >> it's talk of a bank deposit bailout guarantee, a talk of a joint euro bond, a talk of any policy response on the euro that's positive. again, europe is fundamentally not broken from an economic perspective. the euro on some level is. certainly the policy-makers, are but this is all about top-down news and stocks were way oversold, so there was pretty good opportunity there. >> this is a pretty cool story. take a look at this. stunt man gary connery, definitely not afraid of highs. the high-flying daredevil recently jumped from a helicopter without a parachute wearing only a winged flight suit. >> that is dumb. >> he dropped 2,400 feet before crash landing head first into a pile of boxes. this is the first time anyone has ever accomplished this death-defying free fall. >> why boxes? >> i have no idea. >> why not foam? >> i mean, why not a giant mattress. >> why not a net or something? >> right. >> but boxes. >> i would think a cardboard box at 120 miles an hour.
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