erasing 34 points or 1.2% on the session. 2837. that will do it for us. thank you very much for being with us. follow me on twitter and google plus. stay right there. fast money begins right now. take it away. >> i'm melissa three and here are the top three trades. the record plunged and income is hard to come by. the traders will give the top real picks. go home or go small or go home. why the smaller firms will benefit from a boom and gaming for profits. we are talking to the ceo up 45% as zynga plunged. the ceo talks growth and making money with a premium business model. this is fast money. the s&p, dow and nasdaq and the

10-year yield sanction to record low. how close are they flashing a red flag? you think it's flark already? >> hear the bells? i don't want to be a dooms dayer, but look at s&p. >> it was debbie downer. >> i am trying to be the voice of reason. october 2007. they went from 1800 to 15 and change and broke a tremendous trim line and obviously bottomed out in march of 09. look at the bottom to where we currently are now. we is a nicely well-defined trend line that break fist we can get through 1205. i don't think we will get there unless we can trade which was support recently and resistance in october. 1292 is the level you have to look at if you want to remain bullish. that gets to 1205 and we are in

a different trading range. >> when you opened the show and they were clubbing and you have taken me to the point of no return. >> i know how you know. >> i have to talk dire. 1295 the lows are holding. that's really the key here. having said that, 1295 implies the u.s. and s&p. everywhere else they are not. if you look at the taxes and the euro stocks, 600. tomorrow is open and they open lower and go lower, you are near very critical areas where you see a cascade. this is the whole point. they will join you on the numbers and that will be okay. right now you basically have u.s. and long shore hedge funds and people are invested and having the benefit of the dollar and sitting in there hiding.

a lots of them are doing nothing. that's scary because the u.s. has been so defensive. >> it's early reminiscent of what happened a year ago. we were in the same position and i'm curious in terms of volatility, we saw no surprise of a 14% surge. what did we see with the mirror of what's going on now? >> i'm getting the levels of concern. it's driven by the way the financials have traded. we talked about it for a long time and they led us on the rock 'n' roll up towards 1400 and above. once we started to lose the financials, you kept wondering when are we going to see the support levels. we closed on the highs of the session. that's a form of a little bit of concern. we are below the 200 day moving average. we touched it and as we pushed up today, that stuck out to me. the volumes are lighter believe it or not on the options side. we gave back yesterday's gains for the most part. i do look at one positive. the s&p and the puts did have an

extend amount. 1.2 million were on the put side. at least you are seeing folk who is scrambled and the one disagreement is i think fund managers were in the market. they got in late and they are selling out and we are seeing this extended move to the downside. those that chased it got in late and they're getting out. unfortunately the pain is pushing the markets lower. >> when you look at the volatility, is there a number you look at? if it hits 28, that is possess michelle. >> for i saw that vicks get up above the 200 day moving average and hold there for a couple of sessions in a row, that would scare me and start to think. >> it would scare you? >> it would not give me confidence although i would love to see it. i would like to see the big puke day. >> we talked about it yesterday and talked about the dollar and

the euro. at 104.40, you are back at the major low. you have one-year lows, if you break, brent goes to 75. this is one of the trades where they have been hiding out. there is a lot of supply disruption and the premium built in. the nuclear talks on the 18th of june and a couple of events here. oil to me is symbolic of where we are really. markets to me look very oversold. major levels and a lot of guys are turning over. >> by way we mean growing up. the downdraft. a big move downward. the u.s. dollar was down almost a percent. a huge move. no surprise is coincided with the lows of the session on the s&p 500. mike, i'm curious what you think of the markets at this point.

>> when you brought up a great point earlier, the vicks this year didn't look like it did last year. it looks like the period we saw in june and july. we saw it hit 25 as it did this week. huh a slight pull back and it was off to the races and we saw it go over 40. i don't think that just because it hits 25, we should use that as a prom ter to be a buyer. the last time it broke through it it broke through. credit suisse pinpoint where they will go. should it be a greek? >> i don't just pull this out of thin air. >> i don't know if it can be. >> orderly with the commensurate actions. >> listen.

i think 12.92 is lovely. i believe if it breaks it is going to 12.05. then the question is there becomes a buying opportunity of the last couple of years and does it cascade through. you will have to see what it looks like then. those are the levels. that's that gets you 1205. >> the real returns of bonds that are negative. where are the best income opportunities. we have to go around the horn. you have been crunching the numbers. >> intel it my pick and i didn't want to go to the lows. this is one of the names huh for a long time and i often referred to this as my money center area. this is my money market. i look at it and this is why i say that. you get the yield and the stock is up from 23 to 26. i didn't go to the high of 29. another 10% or something close to that. if you sold calls over the last

eight months and another 7%. what you do with the money, they got rid of the float as far as the sheriffs. it was over 6.4 and now it's 5.3 billion. they retired a lot of that. they are doing everything right and the future growth. that's most impress itch to me. i like where they are going and the mobile space where they don't have the penetration. that's where it will come for them. i think the stock goes to. >> you got a pick to them. >> very defensible and $97 billion market cap and a nice pipeline and a nice 3.3. >> of course being the ambassador, that's what you do. >> of course. i like the debt here. i mean hard dollar. i i think they have been under a lot of pressure. if you look at the bond, you are

nealing 4.7% and a healthy pull back. it shouldn't be, but it has been. the debt on equity on the macro and the company like brazil, 35% debt to equity. the budget and the fantastic macros. you want to own this and you want the yield. you have seen a transformation from the broader market to accept that at least on the macro em debt is worth owning. this is a massive asset class and something-supported. >> you are doing a little nafios. >> all of their -- not all, but 90 plus percent of the capacity is already signed up for it and next year much of the year after that. it's about 7 and 3/4%. i will hang on to it and clip the coupon. >> hello there. we talked about wal-mart for a

while and dividend is decent at 2.4% or so. wal-mart is poised to take out levels we last saw in january or so in 2000. the other is etn. this flies in the face of everything i said except that the dividend is great and the levels we trade at is 50% correction. the october 52-week low of 33. valuations are fair and they obviously just bought the industries and might have visibility that the rest of us don't see. if you think it will bounce given the sell off, it's interesting. >> we have the dow high yielders. rerise on has a 4.8%. 100% of the revenues are for the united states. no european exposure and would you say that's the right time to do something like that? >> look at the dollar chart and say it's a little late.

we had a major move in the dollar chart. we have gone through a period that is turning higher. the loner term trade and a name i liked, tef that i said fantastic. massive amounts of debt and massive amounts of neighborhood exposure in spain. this is a company that is not going out of business. i wouldn't want to be there right now. i think it's way oversold and agree with the thesis that the dollar plays are still safe. this could arguably be if you have a major turn out, this might be a big turn. >> speaking of the dollar, the euro falling to a new two-year low and let's check in on the volatility playbook and the tracks.

>> it's double short and the euo is interesting. a pretty significant start. that said it's going through to and through 52-week highs. a move from the upside and everybody is talking about the euro dollar and the fact of how it is beaten up. you can see the volatility on something that is going higher is going higher with it. unusual compared to the rest of the market. you look at the ultra short, i don't know that it's at the highs it's going to be if this continues and if you are keeping an eye on this thing, as you watch the european and the dollar itself start to trade against the eu, it's going to be something that you will see the volatility be that much more extended. >> are you in this trade? >> i was and i am no longer. >> next trade, tomorrow and friday, two of the biggest data days of the quarter in both europe and the united states. what will the economic fate of the world look like?

deutsch bank as well as a cnbc contributor. talk to me. your consensus on the jobs numbers, is that what you are for the rest of the slate of data? >> we will see the ism on friday post the employment data. a little bit on the softer side. it might slip to around 52. we will see consensus numbers. that might be a reand give risky assets a slight bid. right now i think the job market is healing. the economy is moving in fits and starts and will continue to have growth. we are getting stimulus from the low rates. the corporate sector looks healthy. >> you have been one of the more optimistic guys and you have been right. fed fisher out today and he think fist anything, europe is doing the job of the fed in terms of keeping rates low. that is the twist that is working. this is the last set ofidate that works.

is weak data going to bring the fed back out and is this going to be something that dominates the conversation? >> it has been dominating. i wish it wouldn't. i think dudley today from the fed was clear. the economy has to weaken for him to go along with more twists or something of that variety. if you get your consensus and it has to be super weak, the fed is not going to do anything, but the market is going to before the jec. that will be when he will do more easing or not. unless friday is a blowout. we hear from bernanke. >> what do you make of the move? would you be shorted? what was going on? >> i think karen, they will wear a 125 today.

with the pressuries and guilts. all the long duration bond marks and those that are perceived to be safe are moving together. as long as there is concerns about europe and germans, they will rally to the low levels. they will get sucked in with it. >> with productivity levels at historic levels and balance sheets never looking better. why do companies have to -- if they haven't hired yet, what will force them to hire now when the world is more opaque than it's been. >> of the last year and the payroll numbers show 1.8 million in jobs. the last year has slowed. even f we are in an environment where we are growing, i would say you are looking at rough roughly -- it is a constructively backdrop for

equities. you have to really assign a low multiple to get equities back to bear market territory. i don't see it. >> joe, great to speak with you. should we come in consensus as joe believes on friday? what's the trade? >> i think u.s. equities are perched to go higher. i think the risk is to the upside and this is a trade people want to be a part of. i ran into joe at a van halen concert. our u.s. economy is back in the books. does have have a pocket square on? >> all i can say was i had all of my faculties fully working. >> he never doubted that. parrot preview.

some other time. >> thanks again. it's a mobile gaming company that is managing to make a killing out there even as shares of zynga are flopping. we will get the take as to whether or not sglu a take over target. stay tuned. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about market volatility. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 in times like these, it can be tough to know which ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 way the wind is blowing.

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a disappointing fourth quarter of results and the costs they are saying that "the hunger games" and the blockbuster results from "the hunger games" will be reported in future quarters.

the stock is down by about 6%. >> it performed great until the last hour. it seems like it's a bit of an overreaction. the johnny come latelies are -- i never thought it was an earnings story. 92 n my world this is an opportunity to get long again. >> when are michael burns has been on the show and last time he was very good to point out he doesn't want to be the guy spiking the football. these guys have a lot of varying things we haven't seen yet. i agree with guy. you may be -- the cost associated with marketing hunger games may be more than worth it. we have a lot to wait for. on the content side, these guys look interesting. >> it's amazing to think in the 52-week span, the low was $5.76.

zynga sinking with facebook. not all industry companies are in the red. premium titles like deer hunter and small street is up about 48%. the company is only two games on facebook. it doesn't depend on a social network for revenue. this is a ceo and great to see you once again. >> pleasure being here. >> i want to cut right to the chase. your stock had a terrific one in a big driver of that is speculation about whether you guys are take out candidates and a report in the beginning of may calls you one of the best take out candidates we have seen in a while. what you can tell us? >> we have a strong balance sheet. we are executing very well. you saw the q1 earnings a few weeks ago and we posted 190% growth of the smart phone revenues year over year. i focused with the management team at being the best stand alone company we can be. as i said before, we are fully

aligned with the shareholders and we are willing to recommend offers at the right premium. we think we are poised incredibly well to ride the growth of this smart phone adoption globally. we are operationally diversified and we put out a couple dozen titles a year and starting to localize the gapes and starting to play into the growth in china. best of all, we are very close partners with apple accident google, amazon and microsoft. we are not depending on them to drive user growth. >> this particular analyst said a value could be well north of $7. of the price target they have on the company s. that within the range of the right premium. i'm sure you have done the mental calculation and you are not going to do it when an offer comes in. >> sure. you can imagine that's a hard thing to comment on. they ipoed at 1150 a share. i hope that we will aspire to

the premium and over the course of the coming years if we execute well. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. can you me about your history of a conversion of players from premium to pay. what you are hoping for and the target of mid-single digits or high single digits? >> we average about what zynga does. most free to play companies convert 1% or 2% of the overall audience every day to pay for something. we convert players to engage with interactive advertising. we see about that 1% to 2% number are engaging with something. in the longer term, there is room to move that up. glue has much higher revenue per player per day. zynga does in the mobile space. we build different styles with higher values and more engaging

game play. that positioned us well for long-term consistent growth as the market keeps getting bigger. >> you mentioned bigger and that's where i was going. the mobile gaming, you are talking about a $5 billion industry and i have seen projections of 16 billion by 2016. is that something that seems excessive or is that a modest projection? >> we think it's fair. think of it this way. there about 650 million apple and google android devices in the world now. that is two or three years into the transformation of consumers adopting new smart phones. that was about 4 billion people in the world with a mobile device. all of them will get a smart phone. provided that you are operationally diversified, and we make the games work for amazon and google users, all apple devices and you are able to capture the growth of consumers overseas and around

the world. we will see a factor of the growth in the average revenue per title and the company over the coming half decade. >> now i have two things for you. quickly. >> yes. >> number one, 21% short interest and that stock at $4.50 and he is a dead ringer for andy garcia. oceans 11. that's trade school. now he is never going to come back on the show again. i think he is a fine-looking man. anyway, the trade on the stock. >> i just guaranteed. >> i think with the $295 million market cap with that short interest and that take, i thought you would be craze to short the stock. their global reaches, it's a huge business that is growing and looking at the break down, they have been losing market

share in the americas and losing market share in china. china is the most competitive landscape for the mobile gamers. it's not a trade that is done well for people. what i'm saying is bottom line, i wouldn't short the stock and i think it will be challenging for them to grow. >> who are they losing to? >> or perfect world or these kinds of guys that have more space out there. >> got to take a break. is the key to them rebounding with another lager. what is next for the company after this. what lies behind this curtain is one of the best trading ideas you will hear from this desk tonight. you have to stick around to find out what it is. it's very important to understand how math and science kind of makes the world work. in high school, i had a physics teacher by the name of mr. davies. he made physics more than theoretical, he made it real for me.

we built a guitar, we did things with electronics and mother boards. that's where the interest in engineering came from. so now, as an engineer, i have a career that speaks to that passion. thank you, mr. davies.

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so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement. and the next great idea could be yours. ♪ >> welcome back to fast money. facebook shares falling to fresh lows. $27.86 is the new interday low on facebook. is there a valuation at which facebook becomes interesting. >> we had a graphic. >> we took a look at the pes of facebook versus other companies. as you know, facebook is a highly valued company by pe

ratio compared to the likes of apple at 11 and so on. we applied those multiples of the other tech companies out there to facebook to see how facebook would be trading. take a look at this. at apple's, facebook would be a $6.30 stock. the s&p, $6.90 and at google, $7.15. >> how about amazon? >> 50? i don't know. >> the stock is not on there, tim. >> screw it up for everybody. you can't just mention it? >> how about zynga and facebook and linked in. >> how about ge. the list can go on and on. >> interesting analysis. my bad. >> as a value person, this is the kind of mental calculation. >> absolutely. it's not even close yet. it's interesting when you say

apple trading below s&p. i don't know why apple is at the ratio it is. >> everybody knew it was trading at approximately 50. >> no, 80s. >> or 100. >> everybody knew that going in and i think the excitement was these guys will show us growth and show a way to convert all of these ads especially at the mobile area. that's something that lies in front of them. that comes out with either search or a way to convert the mobile consumer. it's an interesting story and it has been. >> wouldn't it be a google multiple? >> google's multiple as they were growing. >> good point. >>s in trade, research in motion plunging more than 7% after the ceo announced an unexpected quarterly loss and they hired consultants to discuss options. rim and device maker nokia could be poised for mergers.

on the fast line, i have to ask for clarification. this is a headline and after the share losses, who will scoop up rim? how about new york okia. could they join? >> i don't think they will join, but they are both on the table. mobile is a much more important area. clearly the two ecosystems that are winning is apple and android. i think non-traditional buyers could be interested in either one of these companies. it doesn't say they don't wait for the stocks to go down further as they are losing money, but i think over the next year, i think they are both candidates. >> isn't it more likely that nokia would be acquired given that rim is a minster that called a canadian crown jewel? >> it's a good point.

nokia has this strong relationship with microsoft and moving to windows mobile. that's about 2% market share. nokia will help them gain share. outside of that, not many companies use them. it's a natural fit in the ceo of nokia that used to be at microsoft. he is a trojan horse and will be under the umbrella. when you look at rim, i think what's come in and made bold decisions rapidly and aggressive, i think he wants to shake it off and if coming the company off is a route he needs to go down, he will do it. i think they are going to try to make the most either way they go. i don't think stand alone is a route that should be taken. >> it's karen. let me ask you back to nokia for a second. that would be the most likely

acquirer. why would anybody else? >> i think microsoft is the most likely. step you want to take is what some of these new phones like the lumias come out and what that could integrate and see what happens and maybe make an acquisition down the road. i find it hard to believe anyone will move their smart phones on to windows mobile. >> brian white of topeka capital. quickly on the options desk, what did you see from rim? >> there was speculative best and a lot of people thought it might be washed out and some good news might emerge and get a little bit of a rip out. i don't think they are taking long-term bets. >> i want to tell but a special event. fast monis coming to chicago on june seventh and you are invited to be a part of the studio audience.

go for more information and sign up for the opportunity. maybe you will be able to shake guys's hands. come on. for free. for sure. coming up next, deal make to soon be hitting the streets. an analyst breaks down why more m&a is on the way and who is there. #

> welcome back to fast money. they are taking a look at cef in the options action. mike? >> cf industries is one of the stocks that is cheap and had quite a run now up about 19% on the year to date. one of the things you can take advantage of when everybody sees

risk, they elevate premiums that mean that is it elevates the yield when is you sell options against the stocks you own. i was looking at selling the calls and you elect over $9 for that, over 5% yield in just 80 days. if you talk about this earlier, the important point here is it's not just cf industries and all the stocks in your portfolio. when you see the stock prices come in, that's a good opportunity to collect up extra yield. >> that's the strategy mike was referring to. there many other stocks who can do this. >> there stocks that believe it or not on the fast guy trade wise, there a lot that held for this based on pfizer, merck, intel and microsoft. >> you can catch more friday at 5:00 and follow the show on twitter as well. get concentrated updates. next trade here, low rates also could be good for deal activity. our next guest said investment

banks are well gained for a pick up. analyst at bernstein research. great to speak with you. >> thank you for having me. >> ever core and green hill are the banks we are talking about. is there a reason that the shift is happening to this bank? hasn't it been going on for sometime? >> that's right. what you have seen is a market share shift in terms of the boutiques. say 2002, they were running at 7% of total fee revenue and the m&a market. they are up to 17%. they have been slowly chipping away at the market share of the big banks. that's easy to understand. dissatisfied bankers are leaving the big banks and moving over to the boutiques. >> put your trader's cap on. with reasonable valuation and 5% dividend, why is the stock acting so poorly and almost a 20% short interest. what do they see that the rest

of the world doesn't? >> you have a valuation disconnect between green hill andula zard. green hill is trading at about 13 times forward pe and the other two are down at around 10 1/2 or 11. that's part of it. i think the other issue you have is that their ceo was perhaps a little bit too optimistic about m&a. that probably moved the stock in the wrong direction. you can be optimistic about it, but i don't know whether immediate optimistic is the right thing. you have a lot of deals out there working. there is no shortage of companies that are interested, but the problem that you have is it's difficult to get the companies to announce deals. we have financing and unemployment and gdp moving in the right direction. all of these are correlated with m&a recovery. we have valuations in the equity

market that are right. we have the percent of m&a relative to the market capitalization and down at levels that we have not seen in a long time. all of the models scream that theyship come back. the issue is the uncertainty we are seeing in europe is causing a cloud. this means we have all these dominos set up. to the extent that the europeans are able to kick the can down the road again, not solve the problem, but keep it going. everything is set up for an m&a recovery. slow clothe, lots of cash on balance sheets. now is the time to move and bring in acquisitions. >> let me ask you something. with the amount of bankers out there with kbaft to do deals y aren't we going to see pricing pressure? if you are a company that is looking to do an acquisition,

here is the price and here's what you will pay. i will find someone else to do it. >> here's one of the great statistics. the probability of a company doing a deal in any year is 20%. a large company doesn't do an m&a deal enough to maintain that expertise. it's almost like getting a surgeon for your heart. you are not certain what that surgeon will do, but you want the best one and you prefer not to have somebody from the hmo and you will not negotiate on price. >> brad, great to see you. >> good to see you. >> simon baker, what do you make of any of these names? >> just on the general m&a activity, i read his thesis on that cash that will be spent. a lot of it on the books or overseas. otherwise if the buying company in the foreign lands doesn't help us out too much. there is a big disconnect between the private equity and the public markets.

facebook is a great example. there was a lot of private equity buying the facebook shares and higher than the public markets. they can't get deals done or the credit. the m&a is a little bit away. >> behind the hedges and find out the smartest money ahead despite record low rates. stay tuned.

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next hour on "mad money." bmg foods and a look at the best dividend stocks. he is playing am i diversified to protect you in volatile times. coming up top of the hour. time now for fast money portfolio and we are bringing you what you need to know and what managers will not tell you. anthony is the author of the little book of hedgetons in which he writes the holy grail for investors. when a manager achieves positive nonvolatile returns no matter the movement of the market. they are reliant of the hedge

fund manager and are uncorrelated to the market index. anthony? what are the strategies that are poised to generate alpha and the low yield environment? >> it's gotten enormously tough and unfoefrt nately for a lot of macro managers nj the macro environment made it hard for them. there credit sensitive managers that are dealing in the mortgage backed security markets or credit derivatives that are doing quite well. there equity guys that are doing quite well. i'm sure i have long shore friends mad me because there is a small pocket doing well. in this low interest rate environment, it has been hard for people. that whole discussion of alpha, when what makes a manager good, could they make money in good and bad markets? fewer and fewer people can do that, but there guys that can.

that's the point of the book. >> you do an extraordinary amount of diligence to make your investments and you see in this unique environment that you have been in in the last year, guys who created alpha over the years have not done well. are you finding that the war horses or the main stays have not done well? they have taken a value set and skill set that worked before and tried to apply it to the environment. are they failing and see that there newer guys or younger guys and more up and comers surviving here. they don't have the history of success to work against them in an environment where fundamentals don't work. >> your point is about a life cycle of investing and of a company. there is a famous story aboutia ya hoo going to pacific yellow pages and trying to sell the search engineer. we are cutting down big trees

and selling yellow books. why don't you go back to stanford. what happens is people get stuck in a business, particularly in a formula that is working. whether it's pattern recognition and fundamentals. the idea of getting long something that looks cheap and short something that looks expensive worked for many, many years, but it's not working in this current market at least to the extent that it used to. that cause is weeding out. what we are looking for is adaptation. can they reflect and deal with the world the way it is today and not the way it should be or the way it was. can they deal with the world the way it is today and adapt to current circumstances? >> we will have to leave it there, but thanks a lot for joining us. great to see you. coming up next, it has quickly become a fast money fan favorite. you want to know what it is?

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>> welcome back to fast in times square. time for what you have been waiting for all night long. time for trade of the day. the ambassador is always looking for a value across the globe and he dug up our pick. what is it? >> this is the pick. big shoes to fill here. this is kind of the controversial pick i have been right and wrong on throughout the month. this is a name to me in the gold mining space. what's interesting is if you look at what happened, gold rallied on a day when they were 70 higher and holding its own when the dollar we know made arguments is going higher. there is a couple of things going on. it's a company he used to be free cash flow negative and between 12 and 15% and yielding which means they are paying a decent dib. they are running more efficiently and they are not

chasing the next asset. they have gone from low 30s to mid 50s. the most important part of the trade has been painful owning goldminers. the beaten up matter. if you look at where trade winds and paulson and dimensional and the biggest hedge funs in the world were unwinding and you could see major positions in sell offs in the 13 for the first quarter. the second quarter i expect to see a lot more than that has done. the worst of the sale is over and you have a great company. look at the chart above the 50 today. stocks got good momentum. >> gfi. the first move tomorrow when we come back. i'm an expert on softball. and tea parties.

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the final trade. tim? >> gfi. >> jack in the box on a lousy tape. >> karen? >> looking at the comparison i'm going with google and a facebook number that is under $1700 a share. that would be good. par. >> tim a point and have been watching the miners have a