tv Squawk Box CNBC June 8, 2012 6:00am-9:00am EDT
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spain is expected to make a weekend request for a financial pack am to prop up its troubled banks. reuters citing who two eu officials and one german source. but a spanish government spokesman says she was not aware. a conference call of eurozone finance ministers is planned for tomorrow. china's top five banks are breaking ranks with monetary policy today. the companies deciding not to pass on a cut in the official deposit rate. instead the banks are taking advantage of relaxed interest rate controls to keep savings rates unchanged. and in the u.s., the fed wants banks to set aside more money to cushion against unexpected losses. central bank proposing rules requiring all banks hold at least 7% of hair assets in capital reserves. that's up from a minimum of 2% currently required. it's in the line with basel iii standards. this is for all the banks out there and that comes as a surprise to some of the smaller
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banks. but the 19 larger are at least 50 billion short of meeting the new capital requirements. >> in corporate buzz, it's the story that keeps on giving. chesapeake ceo will be facing disgruntled shareholders at the annual meeting today. funding shortfall is still a concern and the board makeup is now in question. four directors resigned earlier this week at the insistence of carl icahn. if you haven't seen the reuters report, take a look at it. also the eu giving google until early july in its antitrust case against the company. european regulators want the search giant to say how it would change its business practices to settle an investigation into a possible abuse of its dominant position. and meantime google has won a partial repeal of a swiss privacy ruling. the original ruling would have forced google to guarantee absolute anonymity for people pictured in it popular street view service on google maps. now the company's supreme court
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saying the company's automatic blurring of faces in license plates can have a 1% margin of error except in sensitive errors like schools, hospitals and courts. >> joe, have you been spotted by the google mapping service? >> remember that guy in it ireland who was caught urinating in his yard? >> i remember that. >> i don't do anything without closing the curtains. i don't. >> that's not true. you've told us stories about how you watch the kids on the street when you're getting ready -- you know exactly what -- >> no, i don't. >> remember when you were going in for your probe -- >> oh, yeah. >> this squawk ward moment has been brought to you by becky quick. >> that's true. people really hate colonoscopies.
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and there's wrong -- if you get the michael jackson drug, it's a very pleasurable thing. but there is the preparation that involves quite a bit of participation on your part. you're basically parked there for the night before. and it was light outside and it happens to be right will. and i was watching what was going on because i was there for hours. anyway -- "usa today," we're going out to belmont today because my daughter is so obsessed. >> nbc sports had an incredible document tak documentary behind the screenes. they must have been falling off
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the horses. they have live scenes there before the kentucky derby. >> will this is a plug. >> it was the trainer and horse talent agent who found this horse when he was just a skragly little horse, they paid $35,000 from it, brothers from detroit who grew up in the projects and this is the first time they've ever come this far. >> you don't remember ever a triple crown. i know you don't. >> no, i don't. >> a few in a row, but it's been a long time. >> if this was a plug, we would be out will doing the show from the the infield. which would have been a great idea. anyway, i'm very excited about that. it happens to be on nbc. this will might happen. we've been excited before. so i have some press passes because i have some connections and we'll go and be able to -- blake just wants to go like that to one of the horses. the other thing, did you see
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this? coke pushikoch pushing back on . as obesity was soaring from '99 to 2010, sugar from soda consumption fell 39%. and coke is basically saying, look, there's no -- there has never been any evidence that these big -- that oversized sugary drinks are responsible for our obesity crisis. >> how is it possible 39% down. >> most beverage companies have pushed non -- >> over all the other drinks? >> i wouldn't touch a fully loaded coke. >> there's a lot of sugary drinks that don't happen to be sodas. >> bloomberg, i'm telling you, he looks like a complete idiot on this. >> the weird thing is that -- >> i'm embarrassed for help. >> there are rules, this only applies to restaurants and other places. if you're a7-eleven, you can
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still buy them there. >> he was fully behind national donut day which he should a be because that was after world war 1. it's been a long tradition. but i just -- >> i want to clarify. sugars from soda consumption, not all of these other -- >> there's other sugary drinks. look at snapple. >> but do you you really want to look for -- to blame one thing for why so many people are fat? >> warning, soda is why you're fat! >> not the why i'm fat. it's really not. i wouldn't touch it. >> you're fat. >> i know, but i wouldn't touch a fully loaded -- >> soda ever. >> and another thing i have a problem with this morning. just one last hinge.
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stock rally snags. went to those triple dinlg the levels after bernanke didn't do anything. >> if you watched yesterday, the market was much higher earlier in the day. >> but then he didn't say anything and it went all the way back up. the thing that is scary, and i read a piece on china yesterday, supposedly the consensus is people have not baked in the possibility that it goes below like 7 or 7 1/2. they still think they can stay at 8. and some china watchers say you look at money play declining instead of going up 35% and manufacturing what's really happening and property values. you look at alls these other things and it looks like it could be a 6% number. which is not horrible. but it's not in the -- that would be a big disappointment in china. >> chinese leaders saw some sort of a slowdown which is why they cut rates.
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sunday we'll be getting more numbers from them and the concern is those numbers -- >> stephen roach's question on wednesday, he said why has china not provided more stimulus. he was saying there was a slowdown coming and john rutledge also saying what's going on there. >> i like the sovereign fund, one of the biggest in the world, so worried about europe. euro whether -- they were going to diversify away from the dollar. and they were like i'm not going to touch this thing -- >> they have's been making comments to shore up the -- >> but they might break up. >> an interview in the "wall street journal." we'll talk more about it later. in the meantime, let's take a look at the markets. the futures are indicated higher this morning despite anything
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you're hearing about the feds not doing something emnentsly and that has markets worried. the dow futures up by 72 points. the s&p futures up by almost 10 points. oil prices because of strek in the dollar have actually been coming down once again. you'll see right now oil prices down by more than $2 to $82.70. the ten year after bernanke's comments, sure, they could be, but not imnenminentimminently, g down a little bit from yesterday. the dollar has been stronger on this news. there was a pretty quick retracement and retraction after people looked at yellen's comments and thought something would be imfent from the fed. bernanke did not sound that way yesterday. so that is helping the dollar. right now it and he up again's and you are row. dollar-yen 79.35. gold prices are now down about
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$8.20. >> let's getting across the pond and get the global markets report. kelly evans is standing by in london. kelly has some red behind her on this lovely friday morning. >> yes, i do. good morning. we definitely started out more of a risk off mood. we've since come off of that a little bit and the main reason is this reuters report that spain will seek help for it banks in a conference call with euro group leaders on saturday. so very much policy rumor induced move here. not necessarily the kind of thing that a fundamental value investor will really want to see. but in any case, you can still see the red behind me as decliners outpace advancers by about an 8-2 ratio. down about 0.6% on the stoxx 600, but well off the lows. and as becky mentioned, u.s. futures now pointed up higher than they were earlier in the session. spain now up 0.6% on the day
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despite of course fish coming out downgrading spain's credit rating. foot ciftse mib, down almost 1%. it goes to show that we're not getting a strongly correlated market the same way that we would be if it was purely risk on. xetra dax down half a percent. ftse 100 is down 0.6%. but again we're off the low has we saw at least earlier in the session. let's take a look at what's happening in bond yields. reflecting the same mood. spain 6.16%. well off some of the higher levels we saw. but clearly still reflecting a flight to safety move this morning. ten year french bond at 2.5%. and in the bund 1.3%. keep an eye of course on that euro-dollar because that will tell you where we're headed for the rest of the day. right now down about 0.7%.
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level of 1.2475. and it was the weaker euro, a lot more of the risk off move a couple hours ago this morning that had people more concerned. if it appears that spain is asking for help with its banks this weekend, which its ministers or spokesman from spain keep saying we're waiting for the results of the audits first, that won't come until test week possibly there after, maybe we'll see some of this optimism fade. but if this is as much optimism as we get out of that kind of announcement, i don't know how much comfort we should take from that. >> okay, kelly, we will see what happens over the weekend. in other headlines, lloyd blankfein will be back on the stand at the insider trading trial. he told a federal court jury he did not authorize the former board member to share information about the bank that was discussed at board meetings.
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of course he's fighting charges that he leaked inside information about the bank to you now imprisoned hedge fund manager raj rajaratnam about that stake that warren buffett took in the company. >> paul volcker says the trading loss may show the large heest b are too big to manage. the so-called volcker rule would ban banks from making speculative bets with hair own funds if they enjoy federal guarantees. >> in news out of washington, harry reid making a new offer on student loans. unless an agreement is reached, the interest rate set to double on july 1st. he suggested proposed changes in plans be used to cover the cost of sfwending the -- >> why are you saying this so we weekly?
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>> because you're either eeatini want the camera to -- >> i'm very interested in stupt lo student loans. >> i got you to talk anyway with a mouthful. >> nobody was able to see. >> if i got this done quick enough, would you have had to read the next story. >> senate republican leadership aide says the propose would be reviewed and that it may represent -- >> you talked so long that they -- >> so it was supposed to be you. >> the floor is yours. >> do you want to bring up any of my personal habits at this point again? >> no, that was me. sorry. >> oh, with the kids. okay. yeah, that was in makeup. >> it was in makeup. we'll talk about during the
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break. >> when we come back, we'll come back to the bottom of what ben bernanke really meant yesterday with his testimony. but first, there will be giants he white house today. literally. the super bowl champions are visiting president obama. and in some other sports news, the heat ripping the celtics 98-79 last night to send the nba eastern conference finals back to miami. game seven tomorrow along with the next game for the rangers -- my endev i mean the devils. go devils. s. all in one account. keep watch on the markets. or use our exclusive tools to help find ideas. it's powerful, easy-to-use technology for trading stocks, options, and futures. keep trading whether you're at home, in the office, or on the go. optionsxpress, the broker smart traders deserve.
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s s time for your weekend weather forecast. alex, good morning. >> good morning. as we track farther south along the gulf coast, that's the most active weather at this time. you can see the showers and stores. most of it offshore, but that is going to change. also lining up here with it boundary which is just stuck in place, pot moving much at all. quite a bit of moisture streaming in. farther northward, we're quiet around atlanta. northward from there away the great lakes, no issues. still remaining coolish in in the northeast and we'll still have the chance for a few showers and storms as we get into the afternoon. so be on the lookout for that. boston even away new york city and a new system moving it's way on in if to the northwest.
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that will keep things wet there. but the focus will be here along the gulf coast with all of this tropical moisture working it way northward. we have quite a bit of rain to deal with in these areas. we'll see quite a bit all the way through this weekend, that risk for some of the storms producing heavy rain, there could be spots that pick up five or more inches of rain. a general area here, that's the area outlined in the yellow. but locally five inches poobl. and that rain will spread northward all the way through early next week. mon monday atlanta and birmingham will be wet. so get the umbrellas handy it and ready. >> alex, thank you. ben bernanke says he's still trying to determine if the central bank needs to take action to get the economy rolling again. joining us now for more, julia
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corando. pnb economist in north america. exactly what i thought he was going to say. >> especially before congress. he's not going to come in and say, hey, i'm about to do qe-3. >> and then with a little bit of a twist, anymore questions? yeah, i didn't expect him to say that. >> we were looking for janet yellen the night before to give us more of an indication about which way they were leaning. >> are you saying you believe what yellen said more than what bernanke said yesterday for where the fed is actually headed? >> i think bernanke didn't say much. she said a lot of very specific things about the outlook, about how they're interpreting the labor market. he said a little bit about the labor market. he does worry about not achieving more progress in the labor market. >> are you discounting what he's saying completely? >> no. >> the forex market moved yesterday on the idea that bernanke is the final voice of
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authority and that what we heard from him should prompt what yellen said. do you agree in it. >> i think the vice chair and chairman are usually very much on the same passengege. and you have to look at the forums they were speaking in. she's speaking freely before a group of economistst. he's speaking before congress. so i don't think it's a done deal. but i think the way she laid out the outlook is the the way he laid out the outlook. we're worried about the labor market and not achieving growth strong must have to maenough to progress and there's down side risks. >> but you're saying what she said trumps what he said because of the forum? >> i put significant weight on what the vice chair said. >> lately she's very dovish, but she has some juice.
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>> she carries a lot of weight on the committee. she has great credentials. she's extremely well qualified. her views have been right on. she's been right about the economy in some of the worries that shaes he's for years. she was ahead of the game on the housing crisis. so i think the chairman and she again have been very much -- >> the thingses we're doing is affected by the rest of the world. how about china, do you think we'll be surprised by how weak it actually is or once again will they be able to -- anybody that can bet against china for how long has been -- do it at your own risk. 6 would be unheard of, wouldn't it? >> there's the official data and
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then what the economy is actually doing. >> like our jobs data. >> i think there are worries about china. there are worrieses that one of the reasons they took the stronger action than expected is because the day take is not going to be so great. and we know china is in a week patch. they're gliding down to a lower trend growth rate. >> the real bears say things like you've got ten guys deciding to build stadiums that will never have any fans in them. and you give loans to cities to build the stadiums. central planning is a big problem and eventually it will come to roost. other people say these communists know exactly how on do capitalism and there's no way that they fail. what do you think? >> i think there is a lot of unproductive projects that are part of the stimulus. >> are you talking about here
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now? oh, you meant china. okay. >> just to be clear, i was talking -- but they have a lot of money to finances this. so will they can finance a lot of bridges to nowhere before things really bite for help. so i don't think they face a a lot of constraints in the near term. but keep in find that china didn't view the 2009 stimulus their own stimulus as a wild suck he is success and they don't want to repeat that error. but they're not trying to get back up to 8.5, 9. hers trying to glide down to a lower trend growth rate. >> we have a story in the headlines this morning that china's top five banks aren't going to be lowering their rates that they're offering for savings for consumers who are putting money there.
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>> i think they are worried about the rproperty market and the local government issue, the excessive debt that was created. so what they're trying to do is engineer that soft landing, not create more imbalance as they look to the u.s. and they say we don't want to have that kind of a housing boom and bust. so they're trying to walk that p perfect line. can they do that, that's the open question. >> we didn't talk anything about europe, but, boy -- >> are you tired about talking about europe? we can go there. >> we're out of time, but we'll see what happens. >> somebody wrote, i think it was -- ed said we're going from grexit to spanic. >> you got to be careful there
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when you start throwing these terms around. but the spanish banking issue is a real issue and ultimately -- >> although at least it's a private sector problem. >> well, no, because the way it has to go through the spanish government. >> but that was a pretty nice auction. >> but if all the spanish banks are taking down the auction, i'm not sure what a fundamentally great signal that is. ultimately we need to pull that an part. >> they'll give spain money without any restrictions for some reason. >> i'm not sure. i don't think there will be no restrictions. >> but not nearly as many as other places. they'll be kinder and gentler to spain. >> they matter. >> they do matter. thanks, julia. >> coming up, a busy weekend shaping up. spain expected to ask for help for troubled banks. we'll talk to a top european strategist about that and a lot more. trs
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tomorrow. and a report investors pulled cash from u.s. equity and fixed income funds in the week thaended wednesday. equity funds had net outflows of more than $2 billion. probably not a surprise. corporate high yield funds had the largest outflows since august. and china's launching either high yield junk bond market today. the new funding channel expected that it will see as much as 50 billion in capital flow to cash starved private chinese companies within a few years. international trade is at 8:30 eastern and then the commerce department releases what all much us have been waiting for, wholesale trade inventories. >> dow puts down by about 45 points. also oil prices have been coming
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down. this is because of strength in the dollar. oil prices down about $2.5 to $82.30. the ten year monote yields slightly lower. 1.561% after this about face that the markets took bernanke's comments yesterday. although julia just pointed out maybe you should be paying more attention to yellen because bernanke was speaking in the lion's den. there has been a real move particularly in the currency markets based on some of these ideas, but right now they're still going with bernanke's word as the final and most important word and that's why the dollar is stronger against the euro. gold prices have come back a little bit this morning with the strength of the dollar and down about $10.70. $1577.30 an ounce. >> of course the european debt crisis seems to repaint biggest risk for the u.s. economy. joining us now from london is
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chief european economist from barclays. we talked about the story that reuters is reporting regarding spain and whether a bailout is coming this weekend. do you have any intel or view or either what's happening or what needs to happen there. >> itz's looking like lily we'le some information. these guys are having enough schedules and enough summits as it is without it needing them to give up another weekend on the telephone. so i think this shows that something is brewing. it coincides with the imf on monday likely to be publishing its own scrutiny of spanish banks capital needs suggesting
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it will conclude another 40 billion euros of capital is needed. spanish sovereign isn't in position to go out and issue that independent could have money, so needs to get some kind of xarn tguarantee. and the european if you said which seems likely to be -- i think we'll get a bit of a break through there. >> what you're your take away from the auction yesterday in spain? the buyers were the banks and therefore this is just a vicious circle. >> well, i think it is the banks they are behind the debt purchases in spain. and just between december of last year and march, the span ir banks bought about 80 billion euros. an enormous amount when you consider the totalling ing aggru issuance is around 85 to 90 billion euros. so the banks are playing their role and they've done so on the back of the ecb refinancing operations of course. the banks certainly have more
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capacity to buy. but what's important is that you do seg agree gate the banks from the sovereign here which is why you have these imf tests,s why you'll have other i said assessments. the first details which have should be published by of end of this month. so you can create some kind of scircuit breaker. spanish banks could in theory continue to support the spanish government debt market. at the same time, spain clearly the number one issue really enling out greece here on the minsds of especially investors. and there was some very, very big challenges that you just have to look at the way the unemployment rate has moved up three percentage points in the last year. the fact that it's closing in on 25% at the moment. and there's still an enormous amount of fiscal consolidation that the spanish government needs to be undertaking.
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>> merkel is quoted as saying it's important to stress that we have created the instruments for support in the eurozone and germany is ready to use these instruments whenever it may prove necessary. what is she talking about? >> i think what she's saying is you do have the efsf and germany looks on track itself to be able to ratify the new esm european stabilization mechanism. >> but it's not enough, right? >> it's maybe not overwhelming here, but i think in this context, she's referring specifically to the potential to be able to offer funds for spanish banks under these circumstances. of course if this spreads to italy as well as spain, then there isn't enough money there clearly. but if it's more a question of containing some issues within spain, there are funds available because the esfs for example has over 200 billion euros.
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>> but when she says something like that, she's not giving you any new confidence that things are going swimmingly. >> i think what we need to look at is the key summit which is on the 28th and 29th of june. you now, we already heard out on wednesday the ecb president, mr. draghi, saying that there has to be some kind of road map going out five or ten years there for how you're going to achieve fiscal integration. but at the same time in germany, will still doesn't seem to be much appetite at the government level to be willing to launch euro bonds. germany wants all the countries to be operating effect he differencely balan effectively balanced budgets first. economies are so weak to start with. >> julian callo, thank you so
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fair value. so that's indicates an open down 50. and i just saw that they finally fixed the s&p futures itself. >> fair value changed, too. >> so everybody the s&p indicated down. >> we had some problems with our futures boards with both the fair value and apparently just the actual moves on these. >> we had been trying to figure that out. but right now it does look like we're following europe's lead at this point. dow down 47. scott, what will be driving trade today? a lot to figure out from the fed officials and with all the concerns about what's going to happen over the weekend both in china and in europe. how do you play it today?
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>> this week is about rhetoric so we are to worry about more meetings in usual reurope, but e have to look at the numbers and the numbers are telling us that we don't have any really good things to talk about in any economy around the world. and what we really need is true growth and the u.s., europe and china, we're all kicking the can down the road looking for true growth, but it's not happening. so the guys behind me on a day to day basis, we're empirical. either you make money or you lose money. when we talk amongst ourselves, i think we're probably pretty well braced for a european blow up, but the politicians aren't and they're still trying on keep the patient on the life support when the vitals are worse and worse. >> you mentioned we need true growth, but the idea up to this point has been the central bank and governments can keep us of a flowed until we get to that real
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growth. is that starting to wear thin? >> we'll run out of money before we get there because ultimately the growth that we've had as of late about will anything we've done has been spending growth and that's not real growth. so we have i'll say three months before you see that we just can't spend anymore money on this drunk college kid that won't really get a job and stop hanging out because ultimately we have a situation where we just don't have the growth. and i don't see coming from anytime soon. >> where do you come up with the three month number? >> because i think ultimately i think that we'll run out of money maybe even before then. i don't think we can continue to kick the can down the road. we have on to have a come to jesus and say this complaint continue to go on. look how we do our jobs down here. the longer this goes on, the more money we spend and we're not going to get it back. global gdp is less than global debt.
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nothing else we can do about it. >> boreis aris, the currency ma seem to be keying off what bernanke said yesterday instead of yellen and the other conversation that suggested the ped could get back in sooner rather than later. >> the more i'm looking at the situation, the more it starts to look like we're arranging chairing on the titanic. it's getting to a serious crisis point and the reason why is because ultimately there are two things that need to happen. germans have to do rans per payments. southern european economies have to agree to a centralized european tax authority that will start to collect taxes and get rid of a lot of fraud and corruption. there was a very influential paper that said the only way you can have what's called a beautiful deleveraging is that the nominal gdp grows and you don't. you have the opposite.spanish auction was a disaster because
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they're paying 100 basis points more than last time and you can't pay 5% money and tried to survive. so we're getting to a crisis point in the eurozone and something may break. >> and there is a concern about yelling fire in a crowded theater. they could come together this weekend. merkel is making sounds as about about she's going to make sure they shore this up. if they have this moment where they kind of see the light, could they turn and act and could it make everything okay. >> it could provide some rereli. but here's the critical thing a lot of people are missing. the number one tweet in spain right now is stop merkel and i think what's happening is the spanish and italian citizens see the disaster the bailout was in greece. so they'll press serious
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interest rate terms and i think that's going to be the big push back. so unless they come to some kind of an agreement quickly, that's where the investigation will come in. >> but that's a big fat game of chicken and somebody has to blink. >> exactly. >> scott, the jacket is -- i just can't get past it really. and i know that -- my question is every time you're on, you to have that jacket on. how many of those -- do you just have one? >> no, the varies sizes and sage of stage of life, i have about four or five. >> i know you got a shirt on under. do you have it cleaned every week? you're in a ultimates if pit. you're trading. you're sweating. you wear the seam jaame jacket day. change your you said underwear, don't you? >> i run about one a week. so we have four or five in the
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hopper. >> because you have co-workers. >> all he has to do is go outside when rains. >> i think we should all wear that jacket and start a trend. >> i know it. all right. >> did you it tip cows when you were a kid? >> no. but i was in a part of of the country where that was done. i wouldn't do that. >> of course you wouldn't. coming up, i'll have another go for the triple crown tomorrow before a look at who is making money on this horse. darren. >> thanks, andrew. i'll have another is going for the triple crown. without out about a an hour ago. we'll look at the money behind the triple crown. ♪ i'm making my money do more. i'm consolidating my assets. i'm not paying hidden fees or high commissions. i'm making the most of my money.
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time there was one. >> 11 times, 34 years ago. will i'll have another be able to pull it off tomorrow? the big money certainly on the line here at belmont. attendance does spike big time when you talk about the numbers. people really come here when there's a triple crown on the line. since 2000 we've seen it go over 100,000, war emblom, funny side, smarty jones. all three times a triple crown on the line and obviously failed. also making money somebody three chimney's farm which stand, i'll have another's sire. the one guy not pulling in much cash aside from the prize money is i'll have another's owner,
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paul redham. that's by choice. he hasn't sold any piece in the horse and hasn't agreed to any advertising deals putting the name of his left-handing business cash call on the jockey gutierrez instead. >> i think there's another chapter in the horse's history. at least i'm hoping there is so why be premature about it? just let it play out. if he's as good as we hope he is, there will come a time when he can't run anymore at 100% level and that would be the time to talk about that. >> so you just heard that. he's going to run the horse, even if the horse win as triple crown, which is crazy in some sense when you consider the horse is worth about $6 million right now. he's kind of a gambler in that although the horse is worth that much, he said he has not insured
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the horse. the one of the belmont starts at 3:30 and goes over to nbc at 4:30. >> i'm coming out today with my daughter. oh, god. >> he always has something -- >> something to make him look silly. how long are you going to be out there today if. >> i should be out here all the way through the closing bell. so if you're out here by 5:00, i'll see you. >> you're able with the press pass to get into some pretty interesting -- those are some the horses running the race we see moving behind you from time to time, right? >> that's right. i'll have another came out early. >> you're kidding! it's like a celebrity. you can't get him to sign but you could get him to sand on a piece of paper. get him to stand on that piece of paper. >> nice. >> you can get him to go --
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[ whinnying ] >> he does a man duck, too. >> i do a pretty good duck, too. >> exciting for nbc, too. we have time, 40 seconds. >> never mind, go. it's too long. darren, i saw you out there last night. i thought you did a great job, too. >> we had a great time. thank you. >> in person, those horses are beautiful to look at, aren't they? they're so majestic. >> that's i'm so glad i don't have money. >> that horse was on $35,000, right? >> 11,000 and then 25,000. if you're one of those folks who gets heartburn
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>> good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the futures have been indicating a lower open this morning, down by about 38 points for the dow future, s&p futures down by about 5 1/2. we're watching this very closely. again, some pullback now. the percent changes were also lower that n europe. >> the cnbc all american survey show as measurable drop in extreme pessimism on the economy but don't mistake it for optimism. mr. liesman. >> our survey of 800 americans nationwide done by the same people who do the wall street
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journal s journal/nbc survey. this is the number of people who think the economy is poor. it's come down. don't mistake it for optimism. those people who say it's not poor, they're more likely to say it's only fair. those who say the economy is good or excellent, still 10%. look over here, stek -- stek is our camera guy. that's the old normal. now we get excited about the new normal here when just 49% say it's poor. you see the same thing when you look at the outlook for the economy. it's the current state. back in march the survey, 27% said it was worse, said the economy would get worse. now 21% been where did they go? not to those who think it's going to get better, to those who stay the same. for those who say it going to get better, that's come down a bit. we get happy when americans think it's going to stay the
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same, the new normal. and when we look inside, look at wage gains expected, stabilized at this 2% range, better than in the depths of the recession but not nearly as good before the reception when americans expected 4% gains. we've had a cooling off inflation expectations, they've come down to 4.5%, they were much higher previously and now a big part of the glimmer of hope out there is the glimmer of housing home. the new normal, befores housing crisis, merps expected their homes would rise by 4%. it's been negative for some time. it's blipped up. this is the highest number we've had but it's only a 0.4% gain. we get happy, the new normal, when it's at least above the positive line. you can read all of this on the
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web. at 8:30, we'll have surprising implications for president obama's reelection and the romney campaign. check out more on cnbc.com. becky? >> steve, thank you very much. we're going to see you again in few minutes. >> there are reports that spain could make a request for bank aid this weekend but the government says there's no pending announcement. an imf report scheduled to be released shows the lenders need 40 billion euros and 90 billion to clean up the sector. joining us, martin wolf and our guest host, buyion ibyron wien. martin, what do you think it means that spain could seek a
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bailout this weekend and what does it mean for the markets? >> it certainly sounds perfectly plausible we're hearing the same news. it's clear the spanish government itself cannot really borrow any more and the market can no longer inject equity into its banks. there's no doubt they need more money, whether the imf estimates are correct is really uncertain, it depends on so many things. if money is going to be found at all is going to have to come from outside spain so they're going to need a program. this, however, is not going to be enough i think because the spanish government is going to be find rolling over its debt and borrowing more for its on program very difficult. i expect a large program with spain fairly soon. >> martin, you wrote something this week that gave me some pause. you said that before now you never really understood how the 1930s could have happened but
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now you do. could you explain that? >> yes. i think if you look at what's going on in the world and obviously the trigger is europe, it is now possible to imagine that greece will elect a government that will not be able to reach agreement with its partners and will crash out of the eurozone. if that happens, that will, in my view, create contagiocontagi will create a run from banks and sovereign debt throughout the peripheral countries and that means not only spain but also italy, it would require the ecb to act as a left-hander of last resort on an enormous scale which would itself mean germany advances almost unlimited credit
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and spaen and italy go into meltdown because their banks are reacting so violently and could raisin employment to almost unimaginable levels in spain, it's already 25% and possibly threatening further breakup of the eurozone and that could trigger the sort of collapse of financial systems and economies that actually did happen in '31 when famously the credit defaulted in austria and that triggered the end of the gold standard. so that's what i meant. we are possibly on the verge of some really seismic events if people don't seize control of what's now happening and they've always been in the too little too late mode in europe. >> byron that, is a worst case scenario. and it's frightening to even talk about worst case scenarios like this.
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>> the better case scenario -- martin, let me ask you a question before i answer that. the last time you and i talked you said you were cautious monday, wednesday and friday and optimistic tuesday and thursday. where are you today? >> well, it's definitely friday, isn't it? things are unfolding in terms of the crisis, as one would expect, but but what really frightens me is there's been really no indication from germany, which is the key player that, it truly recognizes the scale of the threat and has a plan to deal with it. ultimately that plan has to be backed by germany and at the moment it seems to be still very much in a wait-and-see mode. this being so, the risk of a really major panic -- nobody who holds a spanish bank account can believe that's the same thing as having a euro in a german bank account now.
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the likelihood of a genuine full-on run in these situations is in my view without a credible fire wall in europe really quite high. >> isn't the first thing that has to happen is a deposit guarantee? isn't that the first stop in resolving the situation? >> absolutely. but that is precisely what germany has indicated it's unwilling to contemplate and of course it's very -- the german banks have come out dramatically against it, the german taxpayers would hate it. there's no such plan there. and the idea that this could be put together in a few weeks, it's inconceivable. they're talking about reforms that might go into place a year or two or three from now. it's completely irrelevant to the scale of the crisis. i've talked to a number of very well informed central bankers from outside the eurozone. they all are suggesting real
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anxiety about whether the european authorities can get ahead of events in precisely the way you describe, which is of course what the americans did in the famous bank runs in the 1930s. >> martin, what do you see as the tipping point if there is going to be one? of course we don't want there to be one. is there a specific institution you're looking at, if we don't get something on monday around the spanish banks that's going to tip us over? i think back to 2008 and the lehman brothers and the day we learned that the koreans weren't going to be buying lehman and all of a sudden you started hearing rumors and more than rumors that people were pulling their money and it created a run, if you will. what's the indicator you're most worried about right now? >> i think one often gets this sort of thing wrong, often is surprised when it's a trigger, i
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didn't expect lehman to do what it did but the obvious one is greece. it started this all off. we do not know whether greece will be able to elect a government that is itself able and willing to implement the agreed program. we'll know this in a little over a week. if greece is unable clearly or unwilling to implement the agreed program, it becomes very, very difficult for its partners to provide the next sum of money that is due to it. in that case the greek government defaults and if the greek government defaults, the european central bank technically is not able to help its banking system because these banks no longer have eligible collateral, in which case the banking system collapses in greece and in that situation i think the greek government really has to exit. if that happens, and i stress if, if, if, we are in a completely new scenario because suddenly the company has exited in a totally messy way, which
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would almost certainly mean a default on its external liabilities, which are about 360 billion euros. that is i think the most plausible and most dangerous trigger point. >> what happens if greece doesn't do that? what it greece gaes ahead and elect as government who says, yes, we're willing to sit down and net, we need a little room but we'll agree to the new terms you set? i thi >> i think that's the most likely outcome. if they can do and they can reach an agreement with spain and, and, and they don't have a big problem with italy, then i they can manage the situation for at least some further months but there are many, many vulnerability points left in the very weak eurozone banking
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system. the eurozone is going into recession. that's going to worsen unemployment anywhere, the ecb seems determined not to get ahead of the curve. it will help, it will postpone the day but it's not a resolution of the crisis. >> byron has been nodding his head at everything you were just saying there at that last point. >> he's a very wise man of course. >> byron will be sticking around for the rest of the show. we'll have more comments from him when he comes back. martin, it was a pleasure to have you on. >> thank you very much. >> you can e-mail us at squawk@cnbc.com. up next, could the impending sport decision help or hurt big
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banks needed 50 billion. and fed chairman ben bernanke warning the economy could go off a cliff if a new tax plan isn't reached by the end of the year. he said the potential expiration of the bush tax cuts is the single biggest item that needs to get done. finally, a ton of chinese economic data due to hit the market over the weekend, possibly setting up a very volatile trading session on monday. we'll get chinese industrial production, retail sales and inflation data. that's all second to come out on saturday. i imagine we'll be talking about that early on monday morning. >> the supreme court is expected to rule on the president's health care overhaul, they'll rule on obamacare. barbara, remind me, when this was pending and it was a couple years ago, still pressure in people's mind, a lot of industry
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groups entered into what some called a fausian deal to try to prevent something worse from happening. the drug companies were blamed to some, tent for doing that. they would benefit with the deal they made to sign off on this works they not? if this were thrown out, would it be a negative for drug companies is. >> as one ceo of a major pharma company said to me at the time, you were either at the table or on the menu. >> such a good line, barbara. >> it is a great line. it's from that perspective the industry did their deal with the administration, helping this program along. and there are several pieces to that. first is that they've negotiated discounts with medicare and medicaid for their products. they've also negotiated a discount for people once they fall into the so-called donut hole where they're on the hook for the cost of their drugs and they also pay a fee of 2% of the
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industry's revenues in the united states into the program. now, in return for that, they avoided price controls and a lot of other things that would have been much more threatening to the integrity of the industry long term and then theoretically with the bolus of patients coming into the program in 2014, they'd been fit frnefit from th. >> the new people. you haven't been arguing in front of the -- >> i'm not even going to offer an opinion there. let me tell what you i think it means one way or the other. for the pharma industry specifically, if the mandate or the whole bill is shot down, i think there's very little impact to the companies fundamentally and the stocks. number one, they negotiated the discount with the government. good luck in turning that around. that's not going to happen. they're not going to get the
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monies back that they've already paid, in that's not going to happen. so they would lose this 2% fee given that the u.s. is about 45% of revenues, that's a 1% net impact or benefit from the be a as soon as of those fee, not really very, very meaningful. the market has not anticipated they would make it up in the 2014 and beyond aspect. i think fundamentally there's really no change in there, no impact either way the long-term implications is we go back to the sausage factory and, you know, there's no question that health care in this country has to be reformed so you doesnn't know what's goi to come out the other end. beyond the supreme court we have a presidential election, a potential change of control in the congress. there's a lot of arrows pointed at the bill, not just the sport decision. for farmia the industry has radically restructured, more of
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the cash is going to shareholders in higher dividends and shares repurchased. these stops were up massively last year in a difficult market and additionally we finally have somewhat of a recovery in the new product flow and that's really the key driver of multiples in the space. those two things are really the focus of intention from investors, not really the supreme court. >> we've put some of your picks at the bottom. if i were going to buy a big pharma basket, number one, should i buy a big pharma basket and who should i buy? >> i think given the conversation you just had relative to the global economy, this is probably a relatively good place to be. whb at the w-- when we had the trade in the first quarter, that changed course and these stocks have been outperforming. they are paying high dividend
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yields. ne have extraordinary yield support in the current environment and, as i said, we're coming up on a lot of new product news. we like the sector relative to the market. if you're bull on the recovery, this would not be the place to be. >> you speak with the management at these companies fairly frequently, you get to talk to them and find out what they're thinking about. are they spending much time trying to figure out handic handicapping the supreme court decision? >> absolutely not. there is this element that we've made a deal, we know the impact it hasson our industry and i think we struck a good deal. all things being equal, they don't want to go back to the sausage factory. but they're focused on executing their plans, driving the efficiencies and, you know, pacically harvesting their pipelines. >> all right.
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barbara ryan, thank you. we appreciate it, deutsche bank securities. how much time do we have, matt? if you want to have lunch with warren buffett, time is running out. >> and coming up, it's the man versus machine argument that many say has kept retail investors on the sidelines. we'll have both sides in just a bit. [ male announcer ] this is the at&t network...
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well, welcome back, everybody. apple may seek a legal order to stop the launch of samsung's galaxy se often. apple sued samsung last year accusing the company from copying the iphone and the ipad. sam d samsung is denying the claims and countersuing. >> it's your last chance for lunch with warren buffett. the lunch has raise over $11.5
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million program which helps neediest residents. last year's bid was 2.6 million. bidding ends tonight. >> we'll have to go check. do we know what it's up to? we'll look at the break. and getting ready to this weekend's big race at the belmont. and up next, high frequency trading, is it ruining the stock market? both sides of the very heated argument after the break.
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facebook is shopping for more office space in manhattan. sources say that the company has browsed several locations. currently it occupies 40,000 square feet of office space near grand central station. sticking with that new york theme, coca-cola and mcdonald's slamming a limit on soft drinks by mayor bloomberg. they say consumers can make their own choices about beverages. that would not apply to convenience stores or drugstores for some odd reason. >> we have the debate of the morning. they move millions of shares in minutes. and they're vilified, is this a case of investing gone awry or
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does it make investing more efficient? and we haveth authors of "broken markets." sal and joe were co-founders of equity trading. and on the other side of the debate, sir, i don't want to mess this up and we had a discussion before about this. >> i'll help you out. >> because i thought maybe he'd make the joke. >> you to call him minaj -- you said it has to be considered. >> i will not considers that as a request. >> all of you, welcome to the show. let's start with you guys.
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make the case. why is this such a horrible, horrific thing? >> thanks for having us, andrew. i think we wrote "broken markets" because we've had issues with the market and the market structure for the better part of six, seven years and certainly the arguments we've been bringing up to regulators and insiders and groups, we thought it was time to bring it down to the average investors. >> i think we get painted as high frequency trading critics, which we are. it's the regulations that caused the market to change. >> it's bad because it's ultimately done. i understand the short term problems it could potentially create but long-term problems? >> long term we've gone from
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essentially a not for profit, dual exchange trading stocks where the investors understood that capital superhighway. we have now a fragmented mess of 50 exchanges and dark pools and everyone's orders, investors travel through this labyrinth with so many conflicts of interest and the glue is weak. >> the argument is that it has undermined confidence in the market -- >> look at the numbers. >> $300 billion of outflow tell up it's a market. >> our job is to trade for institutional client, we're agency brokers. we hear it all the time about the games that go on inside the machines. >> take the other side of this. >> there's nothing scary or mysterious about high frequently traders. when you want to trade, you need
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a counterparty to trade against. that used to be a person, now it's computers. >> but computers could make mistakes and bigger mistakes, no? >> the financial crisis was caused by humans, not by computers. >> what is the answer to the flash crash? >> it was definitively caused by humans to tried to execute way too large of a trade. >> i disagree. >> you say that and they say this is factually incorrect. >> the s.e.c. initially came out and laid the blame mistakenly on a midwestern mutual fund, whom they didn't even interview or the broker that had the alleged algorithm that went amuck until two weeks after, first of all.
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the joint commission came out with a report that laid the blame squarely at the roll of the high frequently trading internalizer and the hot potato trading volume. >> what are internalizers? >> they step behind the order by a thousandanth of a penny. >> do you believe the liquidity argument is overrated? one argument is it creates liquidity in the market and that's so important. if you took it out, what would happen? >> liquidity it the purpose of the stock market. >> if you took out the high frequency piece of it. >> the vast amount of order -- it's 90% of the market.
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>> you used to have specialists and market makers,er that inventory manager. they would have to come in and supply inventory to even out the balance. if everyone wants to hit the button at the same time, a vacuum exists. so you've built a house with vae po -- a very poor foundation. >> let's say you guys are right. what would you do to change it? would you charge a nickel a share? >> the average investor when joe used to call into instanet in, 90s, the average investor understood the platform on which the market traded. keep it simple stupid. the average investors needs to understand how that works today. that's step one. step two, the s.e.c. needs to implement solutions to issues
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they've already acknowledged. 2009 they talked about flash orders and banning them, dark pool regulation. zippo, nothing right now. in addition we is a few more recommendations in the book in the last chapter, but they include a speed limb the on the market. perhaps a minimum order life. imagine how horrible it would be if an order actually had to be good for 51 thousandanths of a second. >> it's not a game. >> it's a video game of rebate arbitrage to collect the rebate and pick up the gold points. >> i happen to agree with sal and joe about their principle criticism, which is the market is too fragmented and owes itself primarily to a flaw in our regulatory regime. i agree with all that. however, the prescriptions for fixing the market that they have are going to cause even more
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unintended consequences. >> but the idea that you are basically arbitraging this market because your computer is faster than the next guy, holding on to these things for next to nothing. >> that's not true. my firm trades 1%, close to 2% of the daily value of the stock market and we hold possessions for up to ten minutes. that's the business of marketmaking. a market maker is there to intermediate trades between natural buyers and sellers. it's always been a high frequency business, even when people did it in the 1940s and 1950s. >> there's the make or take model. the original model was bernie madoff and his payment for -- you don't need these rebates.
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get rid of the make or take model. we're brokers. >> if your computer is physically closer to the exchange than mine -- you talk about confidence in the markets and the fairness of the markets and the idea of a level playing field. you appreciate that piece of it, right? >> yeah. the situations where computers can be co-located at the exchanges is by far the most level playing field. before you had that -- listen, proximity to the exchange has always mattered, whether somebody was trading out of new jersey and had their servers closer to the nasdaq versus somebody who is trading from san francisco and had their servers in san francisco, that's much, much wider discrepancy than if both traders had their servers at the exchange. a have an majority occurs at the servers at the exchange. brokers that ordinary people trade through are operating
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servers at the exchange also. >> when joe was a broker in boston, you didn't have to deal with this sort of stuff. >> you meant me joe, not him. i knew both of these guys from 1993 when it was instanet. it not even the same business, is it? i used to call to get a single quote on a stock at 8:00 in the morning. >> i don't think you can stop minoj here. >> at instanet we were leveraging technology to bring natural buyers and sellers together directly. compare that to the trading system set up today where your average trading system is set up to maximize the amount of intermediation, the number of people touching a retailer or investor order so they can make money off it. >> speed has always mattered. the they first application of the telegraph was to trade stocks. >> this is a debate
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unfortunately we're not going to be able to set here today. the book is "broken market." it a fascinating book and these are fascinating issues. i want to thank everyone around the table. >> i want to hear more. >> and you, joe. >> and there's not going to be a minoj between these guys at the table. >> listen, i have a reputation to uphold here. >> they seem pretty friendly actually. >> really? i don't know what's going on underneath this. coming up, stocks to watch and stories moving markets. and then can i'll have another win another? that's the big question. the belmont taking place this weekend. the triple crown is on the line. could a win save the horse racing industry? that story in just a bit. >> all next week on "squawk box," we're celebrating fathers and their successful children. >> don't look at me like i'm
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frikin frankenstein, give your father a hug. >> and members of a political dynasty. governor jeb bush and son george, former vice president dan quayle and his son turned congressman. and banking runs in the mayorin's blood. and we'll go along with new england patriots owner bob kraft and his sons. i have evidence that proves my dad's a space alien.
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named to car and driver's 10 best. ♪ i want to look at an index to watch and that is the hmos. we have barbara ryan on. we're gearing up for the possibility of hearing in june what the supreme court does with obamacare. i want to look at a five-year chart, if you were to go back to the debate, the hmos have done well, they get 49 billion new
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customers. one this evening i wanted to mention about the "new york times" today, i was struck that they decided to take a poll about how people feel about the supreme court and release the poll on a friday when we know the eventual sport decision is going to be on a monday. you remember initially after the president's lawyer didn't do so well in front of of the justices or at least anthony kennedy and some one of the ones were important. at that point for the next week the liberal blog os fear as well as president obama almost threatened the supreme court to not intervene in the will of the people, like the people have challenged constitutionality. is it a shock to find a
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government institution has declining ratings? is it a front page story possibly the day before we hear something to once again attempt to intimidate the supreme court into not throwing this law out? >> i didn't have a problem with the poll. the idea that 44% of americans -- >> is that a surprise, though? >> no, it's not a surprise. i don't necessarily think it indicates that people think this is right leaning justices are doing this alone. my indication is that we know more about the justices and their opinions because there's been so much information that's been written, so much coverage of of the questions that were asked, and kagan, questions brought up about her leanings on this, too. >> both of the cases cited as causing people to question the supreme court's bias as ideology, citizens versus bush
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and gore. when president obama was intimidating the supreme court after that, the ideology is what's being questioned. >> i'm only going to make one comment, i know nothing about the poll but i will say this. >> you can decide to do a poll at any point, right? >> the idea that a paper or newspaper or anything could intimidate the supreme court -- >> they can't. >> -- three days before -- if the decision comes out monday, it was written three weeks ago. >> there have been a series of this evenings written about justice roberts, he's going to go done in history as providing over the most activist supreme court in history. there have been implicit and explicit representations that his reputation will be tarnished if he throws this out. >> there has been a lot of noise and talk about this.
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fdr, when things weren't going his way on decisions, he threatened to stack the court. but the supreme court can be there as long as they want. >> you know it's going to be declining numbers, let's do a poll right now and put it in here. >> joe, 44%, i don't think you can name a governmental organization -- >> that's that high. >> exactly. >> but it down from 50 and they point out it's been declining. >> but on that basis the supreme court wins the popularity contest. >> here's the highlight, a decline that could reflect a sense decisions based on ideological divisions. >> joe, i have never seen you more animated. >> that he are carrying the water for the administration, that is what this paper does in the op-ed section and the front page. >> when we come back, we'll talk
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about europe at the top of the hour. stick around, we'll be right back. we're sitting on a bunch of shale gas. there's natural gas under my town. it's a game changer. ♪ it means cleaner, cheaper american-made energy. but we've got to be careful how we get it. design the wells to be safe. thousands of jobs. use the most advanced technology to protect our water. billions in the economy. at chevron, if we can't do it right, we won't do it at all. we've got to think long term. we've got to think long term. ♪
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i wanted to you have one of those hats with all the -- you could have looked even more ridiculous, darren. >> i think that was the kentucky derby. i think one out of three i did pretty well. >> you still put a hat on. >> i'll put this one on. >> push it down on your head more. that looks like puck finn. >> i want to be nathan detroit in "guys and dolls." you just mentioned is there something greater here? there's ban lot of issues with horses, attendance issues, performance-enhancing drug issues, there's been drugs. if a triple counsel does happen, is it going to help the health of horse racing? paul reddam, i'll have another's owner, wants to see the horse run, even if he wins the triple
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crown. for a lot of people that seems foolish given the horse's value at stud. >> i think that if he were to win on saturday, then when he runs again, that will presumably draw quite a bit of attention and a big crowd and i think that would be good for horse racing certainly. but i would like to run him because i like horse racing. >> a lot of people don't realize that after secretariat won here ran six more times. affirmed ran eight more times. it's important that the horse kind of gets out after if i'll have another does went the triple crown. there's one more thing here and that is the prize money is now worth more than the breeding in some sense because of the economy. horses are not selling for $50 million anymore. big brown was valued before the fre preakness the 50 million. right now this horse is valued
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at about 6 million. >> i know bodemeister won't run. >> it's a mile and a half, it's a full lap. the people i talk to say jockeys don't matter that much. this is a race where the jockey matters because you have to control the horse and it's not clear the horse really stands how far they have to go given they run these short races and now this is the longer. >> i'll have another has come on strong in the end. >> it's a different game, though, beck. it's a totally different game. so, you know, this is one of the reasons why we haven't had a winner because it's difficult. >> and painter is fast, that's going to set the pace, too, right? >> painter is probably the most magnificent looking horse. >> and dullehand.
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>> i'm going to union rags. that was the most heralded coming in. >> we have some breaking news. chesapeake energy corporation announcing a plan to sell its mid stream assets in three transactions for a total expected cash proceeds for more than $4 billion. coming up, more to watching europe to greece to spanish bank bailouts. in here, opportunities are created and protected. gonna need more wool! demand is instantly recognized and securely acted on across the company. around the world. turning a new trend, into a global phenomenon. it's the at&t network -- securing a world of new opportunities. ♪
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euro crisis. spain now expected to ask for help for its banks this weekend. >> inside bernanke's brain. >> we're going to have to make difficult assessments, about how effective they would be. >> plus fireworks are ready to fly. chesapeake energy meets with shareholders. can the company convince investors it's still a good investment despite reports its ceo is using chesapeake as a personal piggy bank? the final hour of "squawk" begins right now. ♪
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welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business world wide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. our guest host is byron wien. making headlines, mcdonald's, the dow component, could it hurt the averages if it were to open where it's indicating, after the company reported may sales numbers. >> will it hurt it? it was china and japan. >> u.s. was up 4.4%. >> asian pacific, middle east and africa was down 1.7%. positive results in australia but they were more than offset by negative results by japan and to the lesser extent china, which is going to make people start talking about the potential for slowdown in china -- we did with kfc's
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numbers they started getting concerned about. >> we get the china numbers this weekend. >> this weekend we'll have more information on china's growth. some have been positing maybe china's slowdown will be worse than expected. we saw interest rates cut bay quarter of a percentage point yesterday. >> it's interesting we can use a mcdonald's same-store number as more evidence that china may not be growing as quickly as consensus now. spain is expected to make a weekend request for a financial package to prop up its troubled banks. reuters is citing a spokeswoman who says she's not aware of any pending announcement on a bank rescue. could you always not tell hershe's the spokesperson and then she doesn't have to know anything, right? >> you just don't tell her and then she goes i'm not aware of any. >> isn't that always the way it is?
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>> it is, right? >> tell me anything. >> conference call of eurozone finance minister is scheduled for tomorrow. and americans expectations for the value of their home prices turned positive for the first time since 2007. we'll have more from steve liesman in the next half hour and also find out whether he still wants to us contribute to the imf so french people can retire at 60. >> he'll thank you for that one. >> he's backtracking, mark. >> he is. >> he's backtracking today. he came over and said we're giving money to the imf to bail out europe. i said steve, they're going to use it so french people could retire at 60. he said i was wrong.
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>> futures are looking better. >> mcdonald's you would think would have taken down the dow. >> aubrey mcclendon will be facing disgruntled shareholders at the company's annual meeting today. that's where we find kate kelly. a little news crossing the wire as well. >> perfect timing. chesapeake just reached a deal to sell pipeline assets for bd 4 billion in three separate transactions. looks like they'll get half of this cash as soon as this month, though the rest will come a little later. it's a complex thing telegraphed throughout the week. i'm told it took a day or two to hammer out the final details. we're looking for this nonsment a day, day and a half ago but it took until this morning, which i'm fine from chesapeake's perspective. this meeting starts at 11:00 eastern time, 10:00 local time. we've already got sort of a bit of a crowd driving up here. i don't expect to see aubrey
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mcclendon have any change in his status, you guys, but we'll probably see some reformulation of the board coming out of this meeting. two directors are up for reelection and it's unclear what their chances are of being -- getting a majority of the vote. after that they're going to need to replace some people on the board with representatives that have been suggested by activist shareholder kyle acan and southwest management which has about 13% of the stock. >> kate will be bringing us more news throughout the day. the risk out of europe continues to roil markets worldwide. mark, i get a lot of e-mails every day and they have been a little frightening to hear what's going on behind the scenes. why don't you give as you take about how you see things right
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now. i just got an e-mail from you while you were sitting on the set. i don't understand that. >> obviously not me since i am sitting here. spain -- the europe situation is frightening right now. you have spain. we've been through portugal, we've been through ireland, we've been through greece. they always say nothing is going to happen, it's no surprise that the spokeswoman for spain says i don't know anything because that's what they do rig rig up the moment that they admit it. this is what's happened every time. what's fright i don't knowing here is the esm which people talk about is not in existence. we hear people say the esm is going to do something, there is no esm and it's not in existence and won't be probably until late july to september. you have the essf, they've already spent the money on the country to bail out, spain if it
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goes, just the spanish banks will take 350 million to 400 million dollars. that means spain has to ask for help and the men in black show up and it's scary. >> you made an interesting point i don't think we've had on camera yet, which is we're just not ready to throw anybody out just yet. >> yeah. i just think you need a longer transition period. i'm not saying greece with an economy based on olive oil and tourism can survive long term but i think the dislocation that would be represented by greece going out now is pretty profound and would lead to a certain amount of contagion. i agree you don't have all of
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the mechanisms exactly in place but you do have the imf, you do have the ecb, you do have the european financial stability facility, you do have some institutions that can work together to provide transitional aid. you need a lot of money, as you point out. but probably not as much as you say. >> but, byron, i remember probably around a year ago when we were talk about greece, you were not as worried, though, if they basically went under because -- >> no, i'm not worried if greece goes out at some point. i'm only worried if greece goes out now. i don't want greece to go out now. >> because? >> because i think the dislocation of going out now is too great. >> would the dislocation a year ago have been better? >> no. i probably didn't fully understand it a year ago. the dislocation of going out now
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would lead to a fair amount of contagion. without a deposit insurance program, you'd have a run on everybody bank and you might even have a run on the euro. people are converting euros into dollars. >> we're still not back to parity. we're still talking 1.24. >> that's a lot down from 1.50. >> what they do in europe is they try to keep the euro up because oil trades in dollars. the market is bigger than that and it overcomes them and we keep seeing the dollar come down. but to address byron's point for a moment, which i think is interesting, when europe talks about debt-to-gdp ratios, they don't include any contingent liabilities at all, which is derivatives, sovereign guarantee
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bank bonds, state bonds, regional debt. and this isn't magic, it's just addition. you take all the debts of the little tiny country of greece, its 1.3 trillion, the debt to gdp ratio of grace is 453% if you include all of their obligations and then you begin to understand why this is such a huge problem. >> germany is calling the shots right now, though, correct? >> hundred percent. >> and angela merkel could step in if she -- maybe not 180 degrees. if she makes a big pivot, they could stem some of the concern that's out there right now. >> but, becky, she says they're not going to provide this kind of bank insurance. she said they cannot and they're not going to go in and rescue money to the banks, which is what spain wants, which means
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you have to do a full-scale european bailout. and then spain is in real trouble. i think if they get in and look at the property values, you start looking at the regional debt besides the bank debt, there are real, use here much bigger, in my opinion, than most people seem to think. >> so, mark, how do you think it plays out? taking your pessimistic outlook, what do you think happens over the summer? >> well, i think greece is -- it's a political question whether the left side, the socialist group, is actually going to win the election or at least prevent an election. that's the first issue. the second issue is spain, the numbers don't add up, byron, for spain. they don't have enough money to bail out the regional debt and bail out the banks at the same time. it's all going to hit the wall. the eu can step in but they
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don't have much money to step in with. i think it's a very -- you could wander over the cliff here at any point in time in the next 60 to 90 days. >> your view is standing on the edge of of the cliff and and looking down but not going is unlikely. >> well, there's a lot of danger when you're standing on the edge of the cliff. >> we want to thank you very much for coming in today. it's ban pleasure talking to you. >> my pleasure, becky. >> byron will be with us for the rest of the program. when we come bark, we'll be welcoming a real estate legend to squawk. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're hitting new highs. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the spx is on my radar. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i'm on top of it all with charles schwab. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i use streetsmart edge and its tools like... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 screener plus. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i can custom build my own screens
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it was it was amazing. bill mack is here. we're talking about the preakness and in light of the belmont. there's the futures. they're down about 24 points, you need to know that. shares of mcdonald's are trading lower. may same-store sales missing estimates. we were talking about the preakness, if you watch that live, it's hard to think of anything in sports that was by a nose, right? that's where the expression
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comes from. it was unbelievable. >> just to make sure, racing fans of course betting that -- rooting for i'll have another. i don't know who you're rooting for. >> our next guest knows a thing or two about horses and real estate. i don't know which is more important. bill mack. thank you for being here. you don't have a horse this time. you've had horses. >> i've had horses in the belmont and in the triple crown. it's always a great thrill -- >> have you had a horse to win sp. >> i was as close as second in the kentucky derby and independent determined to try to win it one day. >> you have a horse that you think has a shot? >> well, we have four nice 2-year-olds and hope springs eternal as they say. hopefully we'll be there next year. >> let's switch topics to real estate. we've had a number of people come on and i'm thinking even of
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warren buffett and bill ackman, talking about this idea that right now they think this is one of of the great opportunities in the world. you i think are a little more reticent. >> well, you know, i -- a lot depends on what the economy will do and how it performs but right now you've seen a bounce in real estate which i think has basically been driven by anticipation of higher rents, which haven't materialized. but mainly because interest rates are so low, therefore cap rates are low and values have gone up not on demand for real estate but on the cost of money and on the desire for people to get yield and for what they hope and believe will be the future. you know, other than the multi-family residential market or the rental market, the rest of the market is performing quite technically. there's been a bounce, things have bounced off the bottom but
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they're not back to where they were and there's not a vibrant demand because of job creation isn't there and still the consumer confidence hasn't completely returned. i just saw on the -- that may sales were a little weaker and it's a reflection of consumer confidence. >> regionally are there places where you are spending more time and giving more attention? >> i would say the gateway cities are performing better. san francisco, seattle, l.a. to a lesser extent but boston, new york. new york is performing -- >> washington. >> and washington. and also miami is performing quite well. >> but does performing represent opportunity to you or does it represent -- >> i think that's where the opportunities are and the opportunities in these places are today the strongest market is in multi-family. offices bounced off the bottom but flat.
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the demand is flat. retail is spotty but it's best -- the it's best in the area -- >> would you go down and do multi-family? there's a lot of people trying to do multi-family stuff in florida, arizona, doing vegas because that's supposed to be where the bottom of the bottom is. >> we're buying multi-family and have bought thousands of units throughout the country and we are doing some development right now in the dade and broward county areas because demand is very, very strong. and we're doing some selective development right now on both sides of manhattan. i think that as the entire new jersey side of manhattan multi-family-wise is good and it will be getting better, transportation is there in new york and as well infrastructure is coming in, europe getting -- you have office, residential and
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retail and as well the queen side of the waterfront in new york city is performing quite well as well, particularly places like williamsberg. >> i met a guy a week and a half ago who is buying up multi-family in detroit for the first time, which i thought was a tough kind of thing to do. what do you make of that? >> courageous. >> the argument was that manufacturing automobiles were coming back and that starting to -- a bottom was coming. >> it's a plausible argument and multi-family with, you know, multi-family is doing so well because there are less -- the younger people today, part of the younger people, they want to be in the cities. they want to be close to the culture, to the shopping, to the restaurants, they want to be with people and they want to be close to the transportation. so there's a tend toward living in the cities, toward more
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multi-family. people who bought houses in the past because they were savings accounts and they couldn't go down and as -- you know, are not doing it anymore. they're more going to city, they're more going to apartments. also the lending requirements for new homes today, you have to put a lot of money down and the lending requirements are very stringent. >> is it generally 20%? >> yeah, 20% is the norm. sometimes it greater. just try to get a mortgage and it's very, very difficult. >> if you had one thing you could wish for, would it be jobs? does it trickle down is it. >> i think it's jobs, jobs, jobs. >> but we talk to so many people who say the jobs market won't be fibsed until the housing market improves because so much of the unemployment resolves around that. that's the checken and egg scenario. >> i think the man on the street is also a lot more concerned
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about what's happening in europe and they're very, very concerned about what's happening in washington, especially businesses today are sitting on their hands because they don't know whether the two parties -- who is going to get elected, whether the two parties will get along be, whether there will be any meaning edge slags? >> is there something you'd like to see washington do on the mortgage front to clen clean up some of this? >> i think they should be very easy about allowing people paying their mortgage to refinance. they're giving it lip service but i don't think they've got a program to do it. i think that would be helpful. >> the most important thing that could happen to the economy would be a turn around in housing, single-family housing. >> i agree. >> and there's some evidence that it bottoming. not that it getting good but that it's bottoming.
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do you agree with that? >> i agree with it. i think it is bottoming. but it's not going to be a very recovery and there so many other things that are driving the economy that it's a very complicated situation and every day you talk about it here. >> mack, thank you for being here this morning. >> appreciate it. >> coming up, we have breaking economic news. plus, stock on the move.
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>> let's take a quick look at the shares of chesapeake. the company plans to sell mid stream assets for a total of $4 billion. it is indicated up today. chesapeake holding its annual meeting today. and coming up, we're just a few minutes away from the international trade numbers. plus more exclusive data from the cnbc all america economic story. that means liesman will be here to defend his position on helping french people retire earlier. as we head to break, take a look at the dow futures. . [ male announcer ] this is the at&t network...
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a living breathing intelligence bringing people together to bring new ideas to life. look. it's so simple. [ male announcer ] in here, the right minds from inside and outside the company come together to work on an idea. adding to it from the road, improving it in the cloud all in real time. good idea. ♪ it's the at&t network -- providing new ways to work together, so business works better. ♪ there's natural gas under my town. it's a game changer. ♪ it means cleaner, cheaper american-made energy. but we've got to be careful how we get it.
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from international trade data. we've got some red arrows across the board, it's gotten a little bit worse. rick santelli is standing by in chicago. the numbers please, sir. >> the survey says april's trade balance is a deficit and unfortunately it did not dip below the 50 billion mark we were expecting, it's 50.1 billion and last one as 51.8, its original release was made a little business worse, stretching it out to 52.6. it makes this trade balance look a bit light but 50 billion is a psychological mark we want to pay attention to. the marketplace doesn't have any huge response, a 1.57 yield in the ten, which is about ten basis points lower than yesterday and more back into that range potentially that seems to represent a bit of
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anxiety. it's a weekend in europe. we see spain in particular continues to have issues but we also see issues around the globe. we see what fitch said about u.s. ratings down the road, we see what they did with spain, what they may do with more financial institutions. friday's become an extra priority in front of the weekend in terms of dealing with risk. back to you. >> thanks, rick. for the number, steve liesman will join us with more results from the all america economic survey. i think it's time it's about to get a little political, steve, right? we're going to go deep into the politics here. both sides haven't started trying the way they really are going to. apologies to bill murray, a friend of "squawk box" but we're going to ask this question --
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quien es mas moderate? so let's see the youobvious numbers. what per think obama is liberal? the conservative side, great symmetry. we happened to come up with these numbers in our poll of 800 around the country. and now obama has a very slight lead, 6%. 22% of the public say they're not sure how to label romney and 14%, we'll talk about that in a second, say they don't know how to label president obama, which is interesting in and of itself. let's move on. is obama thought to be very liberal? take a look at the gop and democrats. not surprising, 65% of republican respondents say obama is very liberal. and this group says we don't
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occupy wall street or the tea party, we call them the neithers. this group skews democratic, leaving the total 31%. let's take a look, is romney very conservative? watch this. only 32% of democrats say that. so the point here is if you can just come serve here for a second, 65% of the gop puts obama in the most extreme category but only 30% of democrats puts romney there. sorry for bringing you back and forth. the neithers 21% leaving you a total of 20%. whatever effort the obama administration has tried to label romney as extremist is not working. but there's been an interesting change here, this effort to label obama as a socialist or very liberal doesn't seem to be sticking. what we're tracking is a market drop in the total american public calling obama a liberal,
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down 10 points since 2009. this interesting blip here, we don't know yet if it's a statistical thing but a rise in those who are saying they're unsure of obama's politics. now, why this drop? our pollsters, who were republicans and democrats, they kind of differ. they say the main issue, health care, that obama has gotten liberal marks for has recedeseeded in the background a bit. and the killing of osama bin laden and afghanistan are more associated with conservative or not liberal policy. one pollster said this shows obama is a socialist and it's not sticking. another one said it just shows we have more work to do. coming you, we asked america, is the stock market rigged? those results at 10:30 on "squawk on the street" and you
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can get all the the results a on cnbc.com. >> before you go, this indication of who is more moderate, that comes down to how independent voters are going to end up finding vantually? >> that's one thing on it. it's also what is going o with this label. not working right now but i don't think the campaign's really started. i consider these results and i'm not political pollster, but i would follow them baseline. >> it's hilarious, that one number that, you know who helped romney stay moderate, when they are asked the gop if he was conservative, he got 7% from the gop. is he conservative? he got 7%. so that's are those right wingers that didn't want romney all along. what's also interesting is one of the things that keep obama from not being called just an outright liberal is he's got those total crazy that are so
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far left that they're in the eng p the bank for them. he hasn't closed down guantanamo, he kills people with drones. there a bunch of liberals that don't think he's liberal enough. >> we try to separate that out and see who the voters are going to matter -- >> what was that number for -- i couldn't tell. it looked like it was near 50 for is obama liberal. that was near 50, want it? >> 47%. the point that the pollsters point out, they're interested in this 10-point drop obama has had. it was up there 60 in 2009 and 2007. it's come down from 57. the question is why. the other thing i found interesting, the drop in those calling ballpark a moderate and the rise in those saying they're unsure of obama. he's been the president of the united states for three years
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now. >> you just asked the question. can you put socialist in there? >> i wanted to do that. >> you know what, if you really -- >> i was right, i wanted to do it. they said you can't do it, that's push polling. they didn't want to -- >> i guess birther questions are just out of the questions. >> steve, the knock on romney is people don't know where you really stand. do these numbers support that view? >> i think the 22% feels about right for this stage of the campaign. it's after labor day, we're going to be twiddling our thumbs. i think the numbers really begin to matter after labor day but certainly the campaign is going to be watching these numbers right now to figure out where they need to do work. i love those two comments km the
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aebs have more work to do. >> steve, it's called push polling? what is it called again? >> push polling. >> okay, i just wondered what the term was, when you load it -- >> i see, you're going back to the "new york times" this evening. >> you load to to what you want to get from the start. >> we use a democratic and republican pollster and the firming of of the questions and interpretation of the answers. >> i'm sure the times does, too. coming up europe to the fed.
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>> in our in our headlines this morning, fedex will increase shipping rates by 6.9%. the fuel surcharge at this point will remain unchanged. also glaxo smith klein has extended its offer to buy human genome sciences until the end of june. it's battling the company's reluctant management. >> the nation tries to reclaim a stronger recovery. fed chief ben bernanke testifying before congress less than 24 hours ago. we're turning to another squawk market master for insight, stanford professor john taylor is a treasury undersecretary.
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great to have you, mr. secretary. when you watched the testimony of chairman bernanke, do you feel like you're in the real world or are there times where it just has become to the point where you're saying i can't believe what i'm hearing at some point? >> sometimes i'm more like the latter because we've gotten into a situation where policy which is so unprecedented, the gigantic balance sheet, the zero rates for so long and operation twist. last fiscal year they purchased 77% of the new debt issued by the federal government. so it's very unusual in that sense. i'm hoping there's some kind of renormalization before too long. >> the reason i said that is we can kind of be lulled into a sense of, yeah, this all makes sense. you talk about enough fed heads in yellen and whom ever all sort of saying the same thing and it
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like, yeah, with the dual mandate and 8% unemployment and with the idea that some of these other things, qe1 and qe2, maybe it did help temporarily and we aren't seeing any inflation so we haven't really felt the down side, why not try it if it's a dual manndate. i find myself wondering what i'm doing. i wonder when they leave well alone. >> i think it's about time to let people -- let the markets move, let the economy move. quite frankly we've had such a slow, abysmal recovery. in my view that's policy that's driving that and monetary policy in some senses, too, because people just don't know ever what to expect as to whether there's going to be a qe, a lot of people think the market is depending on the fed and it's not a good situation to be in. i'd like to see some
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renormalization before too long so the markets and economy can start operating in the good way it has in the past. >> we've looked at previous recoveries and i've had a lot of people come in and say there's always a lag in jobs. it looked like it was sort of going along that way, we finally got down to 8.1 but this last report, this was more troubling than previous ones? because this is about three years into a recovery where they seem to be sputtering. you would attribute this all to policy or more to just the hangover from the financial crisis? >> it was -- it's been three years now since the recession ended and we have a lot of evidence. of course that employment report was disappointing. to me it's more continuation of a weak recovery. it was weak from the start, it's continuing to be weak. that's why i look to other things beside the deepness of the recession. we usually have fast recoveries
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after deep recessions, after financial crises. this is very unusual. that's i didn't keep saying this must be policy, it must be something going on. >> in every other sector, housing has come back and it hasn't come back this time. does that have something to do with it? and if you were fed chairman, what changes would you make? >> in the mid 8 0s, the foreign sector was very weak because the dollar was so strong. there's always something strong and something weak. what we do know now is overall this is quite weak. with respect to monetary policy down the road, i think some notion we're going to get back for doing that, you don't want to shock anybody but even the tomorrow yesterday and letting
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the markets move. that's the kind of thing you got to start doing for a while. and then eventually renormalize. >> you currently, are you advising the romney campaign at all at this point? >> sure, i've been involved in here and there. absolutely. >> would you have a role if romney were to become president? what would be the most useful role for you? could we talk about you as treasury secretary or something like that? >> quite frankly i'm enjoying this idea of being out in civil society and having an opportunity to analyze what's going on with this recovery. i've been busy at it ever since the crisis showed up way back in 2007, got a lot of good people at stanford and hoover institution working on that. so it's a lot to do quite
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frankly and it's important to have a a strong -- if there were just a couple things we could do with tax policy, what would be most important? would it be corporate tax rates, repatriation, would it be just knowing what the rate? >> the predictability problem is getting ridiculous. the fiscal cliff is a self-created problem. you have hundreds of revisions in the tax codes coming up each year. it used to be around ten. of course you have the opportunity for a genuine reform. we haven't had it for a long time. there's certainly a place where there's good agreement on across on both sides of the aisle.
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>> john, former treasury undersecretary john taylor. >> if you have questions or comments, sweet at@squawkcnbc. coming up, the we'll head down to the new york stock exchange. that's coming up next. . ready or not, the stock of the day is coming up. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. [ male announcer ] we began with the rx. ♪ then we turned the page, creating the rx hybrid. ♪ now we've turned the page again with the all-new rx f sport. ♪ this is the next chapter for the rx. this is the next chapter for lexus. this is the pursuit of perfection.
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welcome welcome back to "squawk box", everyone. the dow futures down by about 30 points right now. jim cramer is standing by. jim, did you see those mcdonalds sales that came in a little weaker than expected because of what was happening in asia? >> yes, they're getting worse. mcdonalds is down 12% for the year. the average discretionary stock is up at 12%. i know people want to panic. i think that's a real bad idea. i'm a buyer, not a seller. >> okay. we have a lot of concerns about what happens over the weekend. there are these reports out
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there that spain is going to ask for a bail out for the banks. there are concerns that china, when it comes in with its economic growth numbers on sunday, those numbers will be weaker than expected. and people are saying that because of china's move yesterday to cut rates. how should somebody be positioning their portfolio as we head into a weekend. >> look, i think that germany eventually has to blink because they want very much to be able to have a euro. you need euro-wide fda insurance. so if you wake up tomorrow and there's a percentage, you have your savings. i think china is slowing down. but i'm listening to byron and ween. they'll say oil is down so much. the american consumer is going to do well. 85% of our companies and 100 percent of our consumers are going to benefit. this is when you buy the retailers. you know something, it's wrong to talk about it. >> you are omniscient. that is exactly what byron was
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saying in the break here. >> he's good. he's been around. >> he can see the future without listening to it. >> that is what he was saying, honestly, jim, that is what he was saying in the break before. >> jimmy, you know, i'm saying the market is going to go back to 1400. am i contrary or delusional? >> you're contrary. and the idea that the make-up of 1400 has to be all industrials. we know there's a lot of companies within that group that can do well. byron, you and i have been around -- you've been around longer and you've taught me well. this is why home depot is the stock that hit the 52-week high. we are all thinking that what's controlling things is the idea that your firm and a couple firms are going to do badly because of europe. and everybody sells everything. and by the end of the day, they come back and buy home depot. and they're winning. they're winning. >> and he mentioned oil specifically, jim. that's one thing he said was really important.
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>> yes, spain matters. i'm not going to deny that we could have a credit crunch for some parts of the world. but this is an amazing lift for the american consumer. you sit down with pepsi, what do they want to talk about? do you know how good it is -- what it takes to get the food to the store? his come down dramatically? but no one is listening. the stocks tell the truth by the end of the day. and that's why byron is det right. >> some day, with natural gas and as much as we have of it, sooner or later, when we learn how to use that, long term -- this is short term, but long term, think about this being exporters and giving cheap energy to the world. we get to use it here. long term, that's got to be great. >> you know, yesterday, royal announced they were going to build 200 gas stations on the highway. no one even cared whachlt are you kidding me? 25% of our oil that is imported here goes to diesel. diesel was not even important 20 years ago. everybody knows it except for
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the politicians. and it's not just obama. because the guy who runs r romney's energy policy is an oil guy, not a gas guy. >> i also said on break with byron, there were a couple years ago where byron was really worried about what it would be. and one of them could be us being exporters of energy. and the -- and there was no shale four years ago when we had these conversations. that could be something the u.s. leads the world in, right? >> american technology. and i've been on an oil rig in the balkan. they go down a mile. they go to the sides. they get all of the oil. balkan, number 2 producer in this country is north dakota. does anyone really care? did you see phillips ordered 2,000 rail cars to be able to get that oil from north dakota to california and get cheap crude, therefore, cheap gasoline.
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does anybody care? byron knows to care. byron knows to care because he's not a hedge fund trying to get out of position. in 10 seconds. how about that holding period? >> and then we can stay connected to all of the roughnecks in our family with facebook. at the same time, we can watch them on spare time. so we can have both. >> so facebook has a 3% yield and facebook does the big buy back. i'm focused. i'm laser-like focused on facebook. >> jim, thank you. we'll see you in just a couple minutes. >> byron, thank you for coming on. >> coming up, question're going to talk the stock of the day. don't forget to tweet us at squawk cnbc. we'll be back in just a moment. om#a#a#a#a#a'9#a+=#a#a#a#a#a +g#a
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stock of the day made same-store sales missing estimates. >> hey, byron, we are just about out of time. we've got about 20 seconds. real quickly, final thoughts for people? >> second half is going to be better than the first half. >> all right, we'll take that to the bank. it has been a pleasure talking to you today. we really appreciate it.
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