"power lunch." everybody have a great weekend. it's going to be an interesting one with spain in the news of course. >> we'll send the chopper down to get you home, sue. >> oh, i wish you would, honey. >> thanks very much, everybody, for watching. we'll be following more of maria's reporting on facebook as "street signs" begins right now. ♪ yeah. happy friday. and welcome to "street signs." so is europe putting a load right on us? the president says europe is bringing us down. but we're in a good mood today. so we're going to analyze, the good and bad balance between the bulls and bears right now. herb's big bet for 2012, it's on the clearance rack. jcp down 30%. one investor selling all his shares and, herb, happy birthday. mcdonald's shares, is the window

into the slowdown of china visible through mcdonald's? and today's show is brought to you by the number 60, mandy. >> okay. yeah, we're going to bring you the why later on in the show. in the meantime, hello, everybody. let's look at how the markets are doing right now. we're moving to the upside, we have a bit of a shaky start of course at the beginning of the day. now the dow is off by about .5%. the dow up there by 62 points. the nasdaq gaining about .7%. if we clear out in the green towards the end of the day, it will be either the best weekly gain for the market since the beginning of the year. more about what's going on. in the meantime, brian, back over to you. >> mandy, thank you very much. all right. and by the way, rest in peace le von helm. we're going to talk about the battles of the bulls and bears. we were arguing in our meeting this morning about where we would be in terms of the economy and the stock market if it wasn't for the dog on europe overhang. i'm not talking about the soccer matches being played today. what i'm talking about is the

weight of greece in spain against the stuff we have here. so what do we have here on the confidence? the bullish side? let us walk through it, right? it's not all bad. it's good news friday. we've got record low interest rates, right? if you own a home or want to buy or refi, it's cheaper. lower oil, lower gas prices. and lower nat gas prices, which means you probably had lower heating bills this winter. you've also got a stabilizing housing market, not everywhere, but nationally looks like it's stabilizing. we have job creation, i put slow, because, yes, it's not very fast. but there is some. and the big one, big boys, don't fight the fed. they have a printing press. they basically said they're ready to step in. those are the confidence, the bullish sides of the scale. on the other side, not as much. but it is the weight. greece and spain, they are the weight bringing this down. fears of a china slowdown, end of the year possibility of a fiscal cliff here in america as people are calling it, and the facebook ipo fail which has

dented already shaky investor confidence. mandy, the question that we are trying to ask is basically this, would u.s. gdp be doing this with the stock market hit 15,000 if it wasn't for the weight? so we've got two questions, where would we be if we didn't have the europe overhang? and where would the stock market be if we didn't have greece and spain? a nice thing to not think about, but let's do it any way. joining us, chief investment officer at ft. washington, and senior economist at u be, s. drew, i want to begin with you. we have 3%, maybe 4% later this year if it wasn't for the fears and the uncertainty around europe? >> the short answer is no. europe's probably holding us back anywhere from 25 to 35 basis points. it's coming entirely through the financial channel. so its uncertainty, it's not necessarily a trade story or lower exports. it's simply just that they're causing so much disruption in the u.s. financial markets, they're holding us back. >> in terms of the financial

markets, where would we be, nick f indeed we didn't have all the overhangs, where would the dow be? >> i was starting the year actually not too different with what drew was saying. probably, i would say, 5% to 10% up, let's take 7% or 8%. we started the year when everything was looking good. got up 12%. i actually thought we were a little overdone at that point. so we kind of lightened up a little bit. so, you know, the answer is we could have gone ahead, but i don't think it should have been the year for 15%, 20% type of returns. >> if i can follow up on that, nick, do you think it's fair to be blaming all of this on europe and say it's the european overhang? don't we have a lot of problems ourselves here at home? >> there's no doubt we do. i just would say the following, i think there's no doubt that may was the selloff and you said what was the shock, everybody including yours truly thought we put greece to bed. and here we are once again. so there's no doubt it was a catalyst. but i do agree with drew looking ahead what i was factoring in

was all the uncertainty about the election and in particular the fiscal cliff. and i just was expecting that would be the added source of uncertainty for the market. >> you know, i guess i'm confused then, which happens a lot, but nick's saying we wouldn't be markedly higher on the dow without the europe problems, you're saying we wouldn't hit 3% or 4% gdp, but yet we keep hearing their problems. shouldn't the counterfactual be true? shouldn't we be higher? >> it's a matter of how stable the growth pattern would be. if you look at the panic about payroll numbers. payroll numbers weren't that bad. to be frank, last three months averaging about 100,000. it's not great. but six months back, you know, averaging about 150,000. it's not horrible. the second quarter ism numbers were better than the first quarter ism numbers. yet for whatever reason people have it in their head that things have weakened to the extent the fed has to come to the rescue.

why do they think that? i think their staring at their screens too much. i don't think the average american focuses on that as much as the unemployment numbers, et cetera, which i think have much less of an impact from greece. >> certainly. >> what i would point out is we've been in a period of sustained higher uncertainty. and this is the key point. a lot of people look at the fiscal cliff and say, oh, that's going to roll over because of all the uncertainty around it. i'm not sure what they're talking about. that uncertainty's been there for six months back, a year back, and it will be there six months from now. it's how people react to the sustained period of uncertainty. i think that's causing a small drag. if you removed all the uncertainty and we returned to a very normal environment, then you're talking about significantly liar numbers. but just taking europe out of the situation doesn't really do it. >> it certainly feels like the only certain these days is the uncertainty, it's the new normal. nick, i'm glad drew brought up the payroll numbers because that was really the nail in the

uncertainty coffin in terms of whether or not the u.s. economy is slipping back into recession. remember the past two summers similar situation that pushed us into corrections for summers last year and the year before. is this year different? could we avoid that same kind of summer swoon? >> i sure hope so. i'm not really worried about a recession. but i think that the point that i would make is we could shrug off a couple of months of disappointing numbers because you could say it was payback for no winter. and i think that the big difference is really what happened for me at least was who doesn't know europe's in recession? but when you start to say could i have a bigger meltdown in the eurozone? then when i got china, india, brazil, i saw worldwide slowdown. so the question i have -- and i don't have the answer, is was the more cautious hiring in may a precursor that businesses are now saying for the reasons drew indicated, are they basically saying let's move to the

sidelines? we don't know the answer yet. >> lots of answers to be revealed. nick, drew, thank you very much for that. >> thank you. >> let's get a market flash now from brian shactman. brian. >> i'm looking at navastar crushed yesterday on earnings. a slew of downgrades all the way into this morning. look at the stock on the intraday. comes out carl icahn buying the dips increasing his stake in the company. it's gradually popped to the upside. again, look at a one-week, put it in perspective of what happened yesterday and it's just making up those losses from yesterday even though it's up 16.3%. mandy, back to you. >> brian shactman, thank you very much. another big story we're following this friday is the triple crown curse. "i'll have another" is out of tomorrow's belmont stakes after suffering an injury. the horse's trainer just wrapped up a news conference. darren rovell was there. he joins us now with more. what do we hear, darren? >> yeah. the horse has tendonitis. they think that the horse could race, but they're not going to do it. not only that, the horse is

going to be retired. will never race again. so, you know, you come here this morning and you hear obviously there's going to be a run for the triple crown, the last 11 have missed since 1978. it's been 34 years. now we find out not only is "i'll have another" not going to race, the horse will be retired. there's going to be a lot of ramifications here, here at the belmont. normally we're expecting about 100,000 people to show up. certainly a multiple of that is now not going to show up. the tickets we haven't heard though we assume there won't be a bunch of refunds since people come to the race and there's not many guarantees. and we're told that the merchandise they were going to sell for "i'll have another," they will continue to sell this type of stuff both these for $25. and they will not discount it. so there's a lot of ramifications. the one thing is if you did place a bet, and there were not too many places you could place a bet by now since the horse is

scratched, you would get your money back. >> certainly feels like not much has gone right for team o'neill recently. i've got to ask you though, who's the new favorite? >> "union rags" and" delahan. i might be going for 30-to-one ravello's boy. >> it's a match made in heaven. thanks very much, darren rovell. >> okay. well, from the belmont disappointment to the facebook fi i can't say koe, shares of facebook around $27 a share, the stock is actually up nearly 3% today. but it's down about 30% since the ipo mess earlier this month. on "fast money" halftime, the judge asked nyse ceo about reports trying to get facebook to jump ship from the nasdaq. >> i think they know we're here for them. and i wouldn't speculate beyond that. >> are you just categorically saying we have not spoken?

you haven't spoken to mark zuckerberg, sheryl sandberg? >> i have not. >> you must view this as an opportunity. >> sure we do. we like to win. we like to win the right way. it turns out they're the customer. so we'll let the customers decide what they want to do. that's my point of view. >> very politically correct. otherwise, cnbc has learned, maria bartiromo that is, ubs has a big problem with facebook. the firm sitting on losses that could be as high as $350 million, some ten times more than the $30 million number that is currently being speculated in the market. the firm is preparing legal action against nasdaq as a result. the issue has to do with the failure to get confirmations and executions for the facebook trade. nasdaq shares down about .25%. maria will be on in just a bit more for more on this story that she's breaking as we speak. well, the fear has been the facebook debacle would kill investor confidence. but did it really? steve liesman has a status

update. >> and one guy tells us why he has sold every single one of his jc penney shares. is he onto something? the battleground stock debate is coming up next. ♪ ♪ here we are, me and you ♪ on the road ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future.

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it has been a very blue june for jc penney. that stock is down nearly 6% and tumbling after the ceo, ron johnson, announced that the company's turnaround ad strategy has so far been a big fat failure. so should investors flee from

jcp? we have peter anderson doing just that. he's sold all of his jc penney shares earlier this week. now, herb is also here with, i hate to say it for birthday boy, but a little egg on his face. peter, why did you sell all your jcp share sns. >> it comes down to one specific question. and i have to say it really did pain me to sell the shares because i truly believed in the company's strategy. but the one question you have to ask is how much marketing research was done before mr. johnson embarked on this sweeping change? >> herb? >> well, you know it's interesting you say that, peter, because he came from apple where there was no consumer research for the most part where steve jobs pretty much did what he thought consumers wanted. you wonder if that's what he was doing here. let me ask, at some point do you think you'll be a buyer again? >> here's the thing. you're right about apple. but remember he was also involved in target. and if you look back carefully

at all the recounts of his successes and you read that with a critical eye this time asking yourself is there any evidence that they've done just traditional marketing research? something like what mcdonald's would do, if they're going to launch a new product, you can absolutely be certain that they're going to test the heck out of that before they launch it -- >> peter, are you saying ron johnson is not the genius everybody makes him out to be? >> i'm saying that it would help us tremendously understanding his strategy if they would release the details of the type of marketing research they have done to arrive that this strategy is going to be successful. there's a lot of faith based on that strategy. and as an investor, you really would like to see what kind of thought went behind that kind of decision. it's a very, very serious decision. >> well, especially when it comes to the issue, peter, of are they going to hold sales? are they not going to hold sales? everyday low pricing? do you think at some point if

you're really going to rip up the concept of a department store retailer, you've just got to do it and try it and throw it out there and tinker as you go along and know it's going to take three to five years? >> well, there's an old saying, don't play the game unless you can rig it. and pi that i mean you better have a couple of test stores out there to just get a sense of whether or not consumer behavior is one of the most difficult philosophies and psychologies to understand and interpret. we're not that easy an animal to understand, right? and if you're going to go based on hunches -- i'm not implying that was the case, but the absence of any kind of release of data does beg that question, don't you think? >> what do you think they should be doing then right now? even if there was an extensive market research, even if for example ron johnson is just going on his instinct in terms of his new marketing strategy bringing back the sale word, isn't it the possibility it might still work? >> well, i think what -- it

could work, but what i would like to have seen and it's still possible is a release of a strategy saying something like this, we've pulled a number of our old customers, we are embarking on this strategy, and it will take x months based on the feedback we've got from the consumers. you know, i was amazed to see that nobody ever asked the street this question. when i started looking at this, i was shocked to see that nobody else had asked a simple question about what kind of thought and research went behind this? and if that were disclosed and there was a road map saying that, for instance -- i'm making this up, but say it came back that most consumers said it would take us a while to understand the new strategy, but we will eventually come back. and we will come back in six, 12, 18 months, then i think investors would have a better sense of timeline.

it's all about managing our expectations out there and not leaving us in the dark. >> ten seconds left, where do you think the share price is going to go? >> i think it all depends on his next move. if he's going to disclose fully what the strategy is, the shares could rise. if we remain this way, i think the shares will just kind of rumble along and probably even further decline showing you that it could be a death by thousand paper cuts. >> peter, thank you so much for joining us today. >> you're welcome. >> all right. jcp just one of the names we covered in our around the world in 60 stocks yesterday's show. herb and cramer helping us hit 60 stocks in 60 minutes and then some -- nice tie, we have them all on cnbc's show page. check them out. >> i've got a real quick gift for herb. 60th birthday. >> oh my goodness. >> happy birthday. >> oh, thank you. if you could only see what's in this bag, it tells you so much. >> why don't you show the world? >> this is what they think of

me. >> no. there's something in it. >> oh, there is something in here. look at this. >> the last remaining k-cup to be found. >> this is the last k-cup in the -- >> in the cnbc cafeteria. >> that's right. >> it's almost extinct at cnbc. oil heading for sixth straight week of decline. we have the trade coming up. >> and the roller coaster indicator, maybe the funnel cake index, forget the ups and downs ot market, what theme park attendants will tell us. report coming up next on "street signs." >> announcer: before we head to break, here's today's return on retirement. do you live in one of the top ten tax friendly states for retirees? kiplinger lists these states as the most retirement friendly based on a combination of favorable property, sales and income taxes. take a look at the least friendly states for retirement when we return.

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states for retirees. now take a look at the least friendly tax states. due to generally higher property, sales and income taxes, kiplinger lists these ten states as the least retirement friendly. for more on retirement, go to retirement.cnbc.com. oil may be down, but your profits could have been up if you listen to our next guest a few weeks ago on this very show. john recommended you short oil and go long natural gas in a pare trade. since then oil has dropped and gas has jumped. do you keep the trade on or take the profits and run? john joining us now. john, it was a good call. made a lot of money if you did them both. are you sticking with that trade? short oil, long nat gas? >> i definitely think the short oil play is going to be with us here for the next several weeks at least, brian. there's so many factors involved here that are lined up to send it down, the technicals,

fundamentals, production trends especially argue for lower. natural gas a bit trickier. it does look like there's a floor because of the switching by utilities from coal to natural gas when it goes down even a little bit more. so i'd say yes, but i think a lot of the milk has been gotten out of that cow. >> how much do you feel the boat load of chinese data this week could move the dial here? you feel going into the weekend even before we have the full picture on chinese data, you have them cutting rates, fuel and diesel prices. feels like beijing is nervous here, right? >> it's making us all a bit nervous. certainly they're slowing flt i think the question is now how bad is the data going to be? cut rates earlier in the week here. it's not going to be a pretty picture. then things just get more tenuous from there, mandy. look into next week where we have an opec meeting where i expect open revolt among members

of whether or not to cut production. the greek election, the dollar will continue to rally on the uncertainty. there's a lot of pressure on crude oil prices from that. >> certainly feels like that. john, thank you so much. you've been right before, dude. hope you're right again, thank you. high gas prices and a struggling economy not stopping people from having fun. they're still hitting theme parks. in fact, cedar fare, parent company of knots ber ri farms coming off a banner year with record attendance. the president and ceo, matt, i believe you're expecting report turnout again this someone. as someone i apologize just went to six flags yesterday, i realized it's great. it's fun. but it's not a cheap day. how is it you're getting record attendance in an uncertain economy with high joblessness when really it's not a cheap day out? >> mandy, that's a great question. part is we're still a great value for the consumer all things considered. we did record attendance in 2010. we did record attendance in

2011. and we have every expectation that we're going to do it again this year. the way i think about that is if during those years when the consumer really has to budget with discipline, we're still choosing to go to regional amusement parks, they believe it's a great value. and so do i. >> so, matt, when we talk about attendance and look atticer prices, you've done two things. you have your season passes, day passes, but also as i understand it charging more to advance in the line? what types of pricing strategies can you do? how much are people willing to pay for convenience? >> you know, i think the consumer in today's market -- there's really two types of consumers today. we can talk about both of them. one of them is the benefit-oriented consumer. they have extra dollars in their parkt. only visiting for one day and looking how to get the best experience because they can afford to do it. the other end of the spectrum is the value-oriented consumer. they're too yet to pay close attention because that's the mom or dad with several kids trying

to figure out how to budget appropriately so they can come have that best day of the summer experience. so we pay attention on both ends of those spectrums and i think we're doing good with that so far. >> what are you adding in terms of attractions each year? you've only got the people with the season pass, the people that love coming on a regular basis, you don't want to get them bored, right? what do we have to look forward to in terms of attractions? >> we will never get bored in the cedar fair parks. i assure you. i was just in toronto this weekend riding our newest coaster. if you like a 300-foot drop for 95 miles an hour close to a mile, i don't think you'll get bored. >> sounds pretty terrifying but fun at the same time. matt, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> that's fast. all right. up next on "street signs," herb has got restless investor syndrome. why he thinks it's time for temper paid paidic to step up.

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markets markets holding their gains. could be the best week so far this year. stock talk time. something just a little different on this gorgeous friday, at least here in new jersey, we are doing june boom stocks. the best performers this month and doing it in countdown order. fifth to first. so why don't we go with first of all, sandisk. >> yeah. it's up 8.2% since the beginning of the month. data as of about an hour ago. may have changed a little bit. sandisk shares fallen 40% the past two months but they got a lift. pacific crest research analyst started coverage with an outperform. a $47 target on the name. that's above wall street's mean price. he thinks they could benefit from the rapid adoption of solid state drive, aka, the mac book, doesn't have the wheel, doesn't get hot, blah blah blah. >> we have one from our friends

in europe. >> that's right. bouncing back with many european names on the hopium that maybe europe will find a real solution, but you also have actual news on this name this week. an italian state owned finance company said it is ready to step in and help financially telec telecom italia. >> apollo creed. no doubt lots of short covering on apollo. herb's favorite name by the way. it's down 36% or so year-to-date. earlier this week the u.s. court of appeals opened the door for a slight easing of incentive compensation regulation, ie the idea of being compensated by the number of people in schools. win for apollo. stock one of the best performers so far in june. it's early. it's early. >> our dear birthday boy is waiting in the wings patiently. the next one is sprint. >> and he's not patient, by the way. sprint owns virgin mobile.

i did not know that. they have virgin mobile here in the states. they're going to have a pre-paid iphone launch june 29th, but sprint up 17% this year. >> oh, yeah, look at that. numero uno. i vote for monday being japanese. the best performing stock in the s&p 500 so far this month -- >> iron mountain. the document storage company we told you earlier converting to a reit raising its dividend. piper jaffry raised price target from $40 to 45. snb did put irm on credit watch negative, but it's not hurt the company. >> okay. herb is here. herb, you say it's time for temper pate tempur-ped

tempur-pedic. >> the stock is up largely today because the company came out in an s.e.c. filing and said it's buying back its shares in the open market. well, considering the stock was nearly 90 a few months ago, the current price of the low 20s might look like a bargain. but consider this. last year the company bought back 6.5 million shares at an average of $56. in the first part of the year bought 169,000 for $73. here we are in the 20s and the company buying back stock in the 20s. i get it. if they like it at 70, they got to love it here. but given their track record here, there's no telling if this stock ultimately goes lower. i want to tell you something else. you see this pattern of this in so many companies. we talk about fossils, sometimes, one of the hot stocks really come way down. if you look at fossil, that stock, they were buying at much higher levels. there's a guy i know an independent research analyst been fabulous on tempur-pedic, fabulous on apollo, which is buying back stock at higher levels, he looks at fossil and

says, by the way, when the company comes out and reports, they're going to talk about europe and they're fwoing to get slammed again. >> may i quickly interject, birthday boy? it's not on tempur-pedic. we talk about demographics. >> watch out when you talk about -- >> wiser people, owls with graduation caps. >> those we have great respect and -- >> there's fewer shares in the overall market. almost every company seems to be buying back their stock. >> that's right. >> yes, there may be less money coming in but there has been to be an overall effect of them buying back their stock and making every dollar count more. >> you could also argue a little bit of an artificial prop-up of some of these stocks. >> one last word on tempur-pedic on your blog on your advice on turning 60, i think number four was buy a good mattress and get a good night's sleep. >> what'd you say this week?

get one with bounce? >> no, it's water. >> it's true what they say -- >> you still have a water bed? >> and a disco ball. we have to move on. we've got to get the big minnesomoney trade right now. $1.6 billion of assets under management and co-manager of the five-star fund. sally, good to have you with us. on page five as i was reading through the notes there's something that seems to me extremely important. you are saying now is the time to switch out of defensive and to get more aggressive, essentially. a lot of people are saying now is the time to get defensive and go conservative. you're saying huh-uh, go in. >> that's right, mandy. we've also tried to avoid the herd. the herd went into tech stocks in 2000. real estate in '05 and '06 and the herd is into treasuries right now. we want to start finding really good companies at reasonable prices and buy growth stocks rather than playing defense with the herds. >> one of your picks, sandy, is

s sandridge energy, you're not afraid of the headline risk with regard to tom ward and sand ridge energy and chesapeake and the news coming out there? >> everything tom has told me and wall street has happened. i mean, tom got out of natural gas and went to oil in '08-'09, really first to be able to do that. here he's probably going to double production from 2011 to 2014. he's going to triple ebitda over that same time frame. he was the first into the mississippi. and that's a great play. that's got very high rates. i think tom is someone you really want to be behind. he's going to do well. >> you're also saying there's a bubble in treasuries and gold and they're going to pop. this is a perennial topic. every single year we have people saying this and yet haven't popped yet. what makes you so certain they're going to pop? >> i look at history and i look at, you know, you go back to summer of 2009, summer of 2010,

summer of 2011, history keeps repeating itself. everybody believes it's going to happen again. this summer you're going to get a tough pullback. here we are at 13 times on the s&p. my numbers looking out to $105 probably on the s&p. and i think historically the last five years you've been at a 14 multiple, historically a 17 multiple. i think it's cheap. i think the issues in europe, 6% treasury bills there, i think those rates are going to come down. and these problems will work themselves out. but you have to buy before the policies are in place. that's why we like to buy good companies at good prices that dominate their particular niche. >> and quickly you think pool is one of those. >> i do. this is -- i'll be honest, it's a chicken way to play housing. so you've got a company that's -- >> chicken can't swim. >> chickens can't swim. >> just want to point that out. if any chickens are listening, don't jump in. >> sounds good. exactly. here's a company growing earnings at 20% over the next five years according to the ceo, manny perez. they dominate the pool chemical

business as well as for construction of new pools. so you've got -- housing is basically -- even if housing has an l-shaped type of recovery, these guys should do well as two-thirds of their sales go to repair and maintenance of swimming pools. there's five million pools that are over seven years in age. once it hits that magical eight-year number, you'll see replasters and remodels. if you think people won't let their pool turn black or green or fill it in, this is a good way to play it. and an 8% dividend while you wait. >> a chicken way to play housing, thanks very much. well put. >> thanks, mandy, thanks, brian. >> we're going to look at what's driving the return of the mcmansion. >> and we're going to explore the game of thrones. are facebook users starting a revolt? the answer in our exclusive cnbc survey when "street signs" returns. for three hours a week, i'm a coach.

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grew. the average american house increased by 88 square feet to 2,480 square feet last year. that is according to the census bureau. the supersized move has been by luxury buyers and homeowners looking to upgrade as opposed to first-time buyers. >> that and the size of the average american has grown. >> i think you might not be wrong there. >> that might be one of the reasons. all right. shares of facebook up more than 2% today. everything's fine. although the stock is still off 29% since going public. but is the company's botched ipo swaying individual investors from getting on facebook or the rest of the market for that matter? steve liesman joining us with this piece of the all america survey. >> what do you call it? facebook fiasco, facebook debacle. >> we call it the face plant. >> okay. we think we have some of the first national results after the face plant, as brian would say, and whether or not it's effected people's attitudes towards investment. the first thing we do when we ask something like this, we want

to know did people hear about it. so let's look at the greek crisis first. six of ten americans have heard of it. one out of three has not. how about facebook? 72%. so pretty good recognition of what happened. they were probably tuned into cnbc. who knows what. what kind of effect did it have? move that over and look over here. did the facebook ipo and what you know about it make you less likely to invest in stocks? it wasn't a plus for wall street. that's for sure. look at investors stocks, one out of five, but look at that number. 72% of the public said no effect either way on investing in stocks. also happening by the way around the same time as the jpmorgan scandal. really no effect on stock. okay. what about still the top, 17%, how about just a passing fad. one in five americans think five years from now facebook will be just a passing fad.

and by the way, that's about the same for those who call themselves facebook users and those who do not. let's move on now and take a look at who are facebook users. well, half of the public has a profile. 48% do not. who are they? take a look here. 55% women. i guess that's not surprising. 45% men. and we can talk about what each one is doing on facebook and for whatever reason. 61%, this is a very big gap here at income groups here. 61% of incomes over $100,000 in the income group of $100,000 and 41% in the income group have facebook profiles. i don't know what's wup this but republicans outnumber democrats 46%. we have another poll that we did last quarter asking about apple users. we thought we'd look who are apple users versus facebook users. what you see here is that the facebook demographic skews younger. 79% of those in the 18 to 34 age group are facebook. and then as you come down apple takes over.

and both have a lot of work they can do in the 65 plus range. guys, back to you. >> very interesting findings there, right? i believe you can check out more on cnbc.com, okay. great. let's bring in maria bartiromo for more on the news she's been breaking on ubs and facebook. great pickup, maria. >> thank you so much. we have learned that ubs has a major problem on its hands regards facebook. basically what's happened is the firm was sitting on an enormous amount of stock and now has trading losses of sources telling me as high as $350 million because of the facebook debacle. long story short, the trader -- they wanted a million shares of facebook, they were not getting executions, they were not getting the confirmation. they kept repeatedly putting the order in. then they were left with one estimate was 40 million shares of facebook. i think that is probably extreme, that number. but we're trying to figure out exactly how much of a position ubs had. they tried to get out of the stock when they weren't getting the confirmations.

they were a heavy seller on the way down flt they could not catch a bid at $35 a share. they ended up selling a big portion of this decision below $30 a share. now losses of $350 million. the firm i'm being told by my sources is preparing a lawsuit against nasdaq. whether nasdaq is liable is debatable because this may very well also have been human error on the part of ubs. who continues to put an order in when you're not getting the confirmations? you should have just canceled the order. but all at the end of the day the bottom line is nasdaq should have halted this stock. >> maria, listen, if i go on e trade or i'm a retail investor and put in orders of five something, i'm going to get the executed order unless it's a market order. if i go boom, execute, sounds like ubs was sitting there hitting a keyboard and that sounds like a little more than human error. i know you talked to bob greifeld about it earlier this week. >> i did. bottom line, they put in the order because they weren't getting the execution. >> so hit it again.

>> so you put it in again. but at some point you can't keep putting an order in at ten times. at some point they did put cancellations in but it was too late. they got too big an allocation. if facebook were sitting on this stock as the stock's going down then they become one of the big sellers on the way down. couldn't catch a bid at $35. sold under $30 and now a loss of $350 million. i am hearing that the firm is preparing a lawsuit against nasdaq for this because the number in the market, $30 million, $35 million is the number in the market, that's a market making loss. the actual total losses related to facebook are much higher than that at ubs. my question now is who else is out there under the rock that has -- that is sitting on all these losses? by the way ubs was not one of the book runners. they did not participate in the deal. >> it wasn't the retail investor got hosed, big banks are getting hosed as well. >> absolutely. they're sitting on way too much stock, they were sitting on way too much stock and sold it with a loss. >> the lawyers are laughing all the way to the bank. >> and the individual investor

can't afford the lawyers ubs has. great story. i know you have more on "closing bell." >> yes. more at the top of the hour. >> absolutely. maria, thank you. coming up, we'vebell"? >> yes, we have more at the top of the hour. >> great. thanks. coming up, a food fight with mcdonald's. with a food fight cooling off, herb said, i told you so. will it remain under attack or is it happy meals all around? people with a machine.

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now now to the supersize myths at mcdonald's. howard penny is on the phone and herb is here to tell you, i told you so. great to have you on the phone, herb. how concerned should we be? >> i think there are two issues that you've got think about with mcdonald's. it's the cyclical issue, and that is that the economy is slowing and then you might have to think about a secular issue. that is, mcdonald's has new competitors in this landscape that is getting our act together. >> herb, why are you saying you told us so? >> well, i was out here in january battling jim and just coming out here to look at the issue that people -- smart people were starting to peel off

the stock. going back to a few quarters ago when in europe they were getting an extra boost from extended hours. you know, that's one of those things you can't sustain. you have the extended hours. then what? and you started to see something that you said, they are starting to reach a little bit. >> the other thing, too, howard -- maybe you can comment on this -- austerity is supposedly bad for mcdonald's. but here when things slow down, people said, maybe that's good for mcdonald's because consumers will trade down. i'm trying to say, if things are tough, isn't that when people go to mcdonald's? >> well, there's a lot of issues, herb. one is, we don't really know if that's austerity. mcdonald's is using that term. no other restaurant company has used that term. there's only a few that could use it. and then there's the issue of some of the initiatives that they have done which has been a

tail wind for them and that's the imaging and remodel asset base. and then mcdonald's in some markets around the world is also an extensive product. if the consumer is slowing down and have less money in their purse or pocketbook, they are not going to go to mcdonald's because they can't afford to. >> there's a big mcdonald's, packed. >> zuckerberg went there on his honeymoon. >> yeah, free advertising. into to what extent should we be concerned about slowing down in beverages? beverages have been where everyone makes them margin. it costs them absolutely nothing to fill you up. a tax on big sugary drinks. is this going to hurt even more? >> they will never do that. it's a separate issue because it's a platform that they've used to grow the afternoon day

part for them, so between lunch and dinner. and that is slowing. they have taken their advertising from probably 10% of their total spin on beverages to 40% in the last couple of years. that's not going to 50 or 60%. so that contribution to the constant has slowed and if you look at their commentary on beverages, they really don't talk about it anymore. >> howard, thank you for coming on the show, enjoy your weekend. and it is happy birthday for herb. in honor of mr. greenberg, we give to you a basket of stocks that are going to help new your golden years. >> here we go, herb. >> we mean this with love. and in your hip, knee, head, pfizer, ventas, general motors.

>> happy birthday, herb. thanks so much for watching. >> have a great night tonight. enjoy. i'm sure maria bartiromo will have breaking news on her ubs loss. >> "closing bell" is coming up next. >> remember, guys, boneless wings. boneless wings. mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote.

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