tv Fast Money CNBC June 12, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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reboundstock the stock rebound continues. >> there is a nice bounce coming through. we're cutting the losses on european markets to the close. the promise of $125 billion, the credit line for the spanish banks really hasn't proeken that negative feedback between confidence, sovereign debt and indeed bank debt. >> with energy shares leading the turnaround. >> supply is tighter than you think. and if you think the saudis are going to bring oil prices down, when you look at it they've got 50% of their men in saudi arabia unemployed. >> just when you thought it was safe to buy, congress is getting involved with jamie dimon set to get grilled on the hill. >> the question is jamie dimon
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going to tell us the truth tomorrow? he hasn't done it yet. >> you can't talk like that to karen's boyfriend. fresh from the trading floor this is "fast money." live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm melissa lee. straight to the breaking news. we are getting a glimpse of what jamie dimon may say in front of the senate. let's go to sue. >> good evening. we're going through some of the testimony. we gave you some of the headlines earlier saying the trading losses, mr. dimon says in his testimony the cio trading losses sought to offset existing positions referring to + sounds
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it wasn't subject to the rigorous testing of the cio and wasn't reviewed outside the cio meaning i didn't see them myself. >> that doesn't let him off the hook though. a couple of points. he was saying they will still be solidly profitable. that's good if that's on an operating basis. if it's them taking trading gains from the portfolio against the losses, that's clearly not as good. or a release of reserves, that's not as good. >> it's the quality of the earnings. >> it's definitely saying we'll have to look at it a few weeks down the road. the show, the circus of him going there and him saying, look, we didn't fully understand
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the model and them sort of -- they will. >> yeah. >> it's absurd. it will be a chance for them to grand stand and say what their position is and appeal to constituents. it's a circus. >> that's the big risk. >> and my boyfriend. >> do you think -- >> it will come up early, be a fleeting moment. >> it might help. >> the biggest risk is what you see on the bottom of the screen. the breaking news headline. when you start to see him on capitol hill on and on and on and all the different committee meetings because this is not the last one. he'll be in front of a bunch of subcommittees. that's the risk you have with jpmorgan. you should avoid the game. probably dips back into the high 20s. >> what makes a difference here? how many billions in market cap have been taken off the stock? what do we not know at this point? >> the issue isn't did you make money. it's how do you make money?
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how on an on going basis do you operate in this environment post what karen called a political gong show. this is a certified gong show tomorrow. i think the big risk is actually that dimon tells people in congress how the business works. >> when this news broke out, how many guys on trading desks around wall street were tapped on the shoulder by the credit risk officer saying you're bringing your guard down, your value at risk. don't think it didn't have something to do with the insane volatility in the third and fourth weeks of may. i'm sure of it. this is something we'll continue. >> explain it to the person at home. they are not able to hedge as well. >> i think the size of the balance sheet they were using at their respective firms and this is a lot of wall street and europe's own banks for sure. also possibly big hedge funds, global macro guys. no question. where are we? do i know?
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this happened around the world right after that. if it can happen to jpmorgan it can happen to anybody. >> this is a huge issue manifesting in the buy side. a lot of sell side all-stars have gone to the buy side. when tim says tap on the shoulder that's real. the guy who runs the firm says, take your exposure down. that's the environment and it will be on going. >> it went from $2 billion to $5 billion. >> we don't know. >> i don't know that there is a major bubble ready to burst at jpmorgan. on the valuation it looks very good at seven times price to book. no question is image was shattered. it can be and probably will be rebuilt but not overnight. >> let's go to the man who's spoken to dozens of people about what jpmorgan knew and when. now some insight here. greg, i'm not sure if you were able to at least hear some of
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the headlines from the testimony that will be given tomorrow by jamie dimon. anything jump out at you as something you didn't know, that you didn't hear from your sources? >> no. this was expected. they are basically saying we had poor judgment. there was a break down in risk controls. over confidence. i would love to hear more about what happened before this year. they are focusing very much on 2012. frankly, our reporting suggested that there were red flags within the bank much earlier. early 2011 going into 2010. >> what was the biggest red flag? what do you think is the red flag some senator tomorrow will hook his little tentacles into. >> the cio group has long had an appetite for a liquid kind of trade. i would love to know whether that's going to change. i mean, this is a focus on risk management and how to improve risk management. they really haven't talked about if they are going to shift how
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they invest and what they buy. i don't get the sense that they will. again, 2010 and 2011, they were doing -- focusing on illiquid markets and people said it would be dangerous to enter those positions. >> do you think there will be a focus on what's hedging, what's a proprietary trade and trying to get what what it may look at for the bank? >> i think so. there are a lot of people in washington an elsewhere who want a stricter interpretation of the volker rule. they will use this to push for a stricturer interpretation. it's a gray area when it comes to prop trading for a bank. jamie may get into that. invite that kind of question so he can lecture them on how they need to take a risk.
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they do as a bank. >> speaking of taking risks, one thing i thought was key in a note you made was this london group has a habit, a history of not following necessarily the orders, carrying out risk management at least mandates. how much of a house cleaning should we expect here? these are high powered guys. they apparently didn't heed internal orders. >> there will be more people that leave making moves there. a lot of the change will come from up top. dimon has given these guys a long leash for years and largely because they did so well. our reporting suggested in 2009 they made as much as $9 billion according to some people. so they had a long leash. i can't imagine that will continue. that will be part of the change as well. >> greg, we'll leave it there. thanks for joining us. >> sure thing. >> greg zuker man from the wall street journal. in terms of the risk to
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jpmorgan, aren't they risks to the industry? if there is a tightening of the volker rule that will affect everyone and this will be a macro factor for the sector. is there still a jpmorgan specific risk to the story at this point? >> i agree with that and we have said it since the beginning. this is a politicized situation where volker rule implementation couldn't be more poorly timed. this is one of the monumental moments for dimon's career, for the industry. i think the question is how much less do they have to take off as opposed to how much more they can put back on. >> it's political. this administration needs to grab whatever they can to seize public support. wall street banks are easy bullies. this will be a target. >> the administration and congress. >> all of the people who need to get elected in the fall. >> josh, do you think the worst is over? could it be tomorrow
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jpmorgan's bp moment? >> i don't know if the worst is over but there is a political appetite for these guys to go after jamie tomorrow. they want it to be symbolic of an industry that hasn't changed much in the wake of the last catastrophe. two things will be important. number one, do they pin him down about why the value at risk model was changed all of the sudden in the first quarter? what was the point of doing that? they will also try to nail him about is this really hedging? that's really the central question. it's not about did they lose $2 billion or $4 billion. this is a trillion dollar bank. are we really calling this hedging going forward? are we going to allow deposit institutions to act like ginormous hedge funds? that's what i would look for and i would be watching the xlf still dominated by large banks trading in that kind of manner. i think the sun is setting on
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that. >> here's the last thing that's important. even if it's $4 billion or $5 billion it's a buck or a buck and a quarter a share. it's blown out of proportion. but politicize anything and there is no limit to how high it can grow. >> cheap gets cheaper when you have a structural issue. >> got to take a break here. actually, we're going to hit the vix. >> let's do it. >> actually, we're not. >> you're tricky. >> i know. we have a lot to talk about including the market rally and the top three names. we're finding value now. stay tuned. >> announcer: want to beat the street? then you better tweet the street. twitter.com/cnbcfastmoney. now one of the most followed sites in business news. show recaps and exclusive realtime updates from the trader. when you tweet us back, we put you on tv. follow the "fast money."
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today's market action. stocks, oil, gold all staging a turn around. is this qe-3 anticipation trade? how are you playing it? seems like there was more talk after charlie evans started talking about stimulus in order to stimulate the jobs market. >> to be clear on this, i think this entire thing is ridiculous in terms of how people are whispering, trying to game the game within the game. when you get a move down like you did the day prior the fed has whispers. evans was up next. he delivered the message. the dollar started to come down and gold goes up. oil chased it. the rest of the market followed. that's the game you're in. i suggest you play it. >> is it a game? >> the last five seconds. game within a game, the game. >> are we in the game or outside the game? >> the fed is trying to be more transparent to markets. i do think the fed has an ability to jawbone markets but the fed has really been clear. there are differing voices with differing tones, differing shades of gray within the fed. my sense is no one knows what
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will come out of europe. the fed is trying to hedge their bets. >> the game within the game, you know, adam smith under the acronym of george goodman, this is as old as 1967. it's on going. we are gaming expectations. now we are playing the most heightened game of expectations americans have seen. it's based on what a central planner does best. >> the way i'm playing the game. >> are you gaming within the game within the game? >> karen has a way of giving analogy to the game as well. this is the gdx. i'm playing gold. germany said they refused to lend more money unless it's backstopped in gold. >> at the same time, are we foolish to think -- >> probably. just stop right there. >> foolish, that's a whole different question there. in terms of the impact on stocks, on asset classes, will it be the same as previous stimulus programs? this was given to us by our "fast money" friend simon baker. here you can see the first round
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of qe 1 markets up 80%. second round, up 33%. then the twist plus the ltro at 29% return here. >> each of the returns has been a little bit less. talk about pushing -- >> less and less. >> i don't think the markets. look what happened. we announced the spanish bank bailout and markets went down. spanish bank bond yields are wider two days in a row with at least some legitimate talk of what's not structural improvement or more europe for europe which is the right thing to do for them. i'm not saying it's what anyone should want for themselves. it's what they have to do to change. spanish banks are blowing out here. you have a big vicious circle between the sovereigns and banks not getting better. i'm not sure the markets can rally in the same way. >> one of the big factors is market expectation. again, the market isn't the economy. what the fed has not got out of this is economic growth. what happens is you get asset price inflation. oil goes up and real inflation
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adjusted comes down. we are shortening economic cycles, amplifying market volatility. each rally goes to a lower high and people get out of the way faster. that's a problem. >> i'm curious how options traders are positioning themselves. we have talk about possible stimulus stimulating the rally. at the same time you have bank of america coming out with a global fund manager survey saying average cash on hand is up to 5.3%, the highest since january 2009. they say these two things happen and usually 5 to 7% equity rally in the next four to six weeks, which is soon. >> that would be wonderful. i don't think it will happen. asked about equity option traders in the index. specifically the vix which is stuck between the 50 day and 200 day moving average. i'm not a fan of technical analysis on the vix but they are important levels.
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option traders don't want to get far from home particularly in front of qe-12 or whatever is next. largely because, as we have said, qe 1 was a scalpel. we are now left with a chainsaw. because of expectations, any appreciation we would get in the equity markets would be nice. if we don't get a qe-33 then the sell-off will be dramatic. we're set up for a nice bump to the upside but a horrible downdraft if we don't get what we want. >> let's go to "fast money" portfolio here where long term investing meet it is volatility of today's world. the aerial focus fund rose and the exposure to financials has knocked it down. let's bring in the vice chairman for his top value picks. charlie, great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> i see you think jpmorgan is the strongest, best managed u.s.
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bank though jamie dimon points at the cio office saying they managed it. they didn't run trades through their rigorous risk management processes. i didn't know. sorry. >> this is obviously disappointing. that's why the stock is hit hard. it wasn't a contrarian view of mine to say jamie dimon was the best manager in the space. i think he is. this is a hiccup. i agree. this is one of the biggest hiccups in his career. he's still the best manager. jpmorgan is still the strongest bank that every company wants to have lead the bank deal and many bond deals. it's still the prettiest girl in the neighborhood. >> speaking of prettiest girls, karen finerman. >> what's your expectation? do you have to look at what could be normalized earnings a little bit lower iffer with looking at a cio office that maybe has a smaller book? so where do you think it could trade to then?
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>> we think it's hard to value banks on a multiple of normalized earnings. what's normal earnings for a bank? that's a nebulous concept. we still do look to tangible book. on that basis, jpmorgan is not as cheap as other things. we think jamie dimon is the best manager and morgan stanley is the best value. mar morgan stanley is 50% of tangible book and jpmorgan is at 90. not as cheap. >> i want to talk about your value stocks. microsoft for one seems to have had trouble going above 32 and staying there for long. at this point you still think win 8 will be a catalyst? didn't you think that wrought it to 32.95 in the first half? >> it's one of the less publicized, best performing stocks this year. it's our largest position. it's the stock everyone loves to
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hate. we like to buy it when apple is having big news. they take microsoft stock down when apple makes an now. the fact is windows 8 will be well received. it will be a unifying platform for the pc, ipad and the phone. i've got a nokia lumia 900, a spectacular phone for a hundred dollars. you should try it. microsoft is a great value. >> are you a buyer of nokia, charlie? >> absolutely not. microsoft is trading at ten times heearnings. >> i dumped that pretty girl. how about walgreens? this is your most interesting play. you're making a call on generics with walgreens which is one of the most interesting topics for consumers and governments around the world. >> if pfizer has lipitor they don't need walgreens. when it becomes a generic drug the distribution system becomes more important. so walgreens does very well
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every time you have a big drug go off patent. the stock has been hit because of problems with express scripts but that will be resolved here. very cheap on eva to ebitda multi billion. a high class retailer that will do well in the generic wave. >> good to speak with you. >> thanks for having me. >> josh brown being the contrarian. i guess you have a bone to pick with at least one of the picks. >> i hear the word cheap associated with stocks and i cringe. not that i don't want a good value but citigroup, morgan stanley. i will say it for the record. bank stocks without dividends are like bicycles without seats. they are very uncomfortable to ride. >> ooh! >> there is no reason at all to be in citigroup. i don't get it. the microsoft pick is interesting. it's a perennial left behind. i like that one. the bank names, he's got to kick
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those at some point. not that they can't work. there are easier ways to live your life. >> we all cringed on the metaphor. >> i'm working off a delay here. it's really bad. >> got to take a break here. up next, talking to some of the top stock pickers. our guest after the break is giving you the best picks right now in the airline sector. stay tuned for the trades after this. ♪ [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪
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explorer card. get it and you're in. let's hit some after hours action here. we are watching shares of dell holding the analyst meeting today in austin, texas. also announcing the first ever dividend payment. dell initiating a dividend. the stock is popping here in the after hours session after a 52 week low in the regular session. anybody a buyer of dell? >> no. we were talking on the break. it stands to reason stocks that make new 52-week highs go higher. lows, they go lower. the herd goes for the wounded gazelle. they just want to pummel the weak names.
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dell is one of them. >> josh, if you are a believer of microsoft and the win 8 refreshment cycle should you be a believer in dell? >> it might translate to unit growth with dell. but the story with dell is simple. they have to show that they are more than a box. i don't know if they are there yet. i want to be in this name. i think there is a possibility of a turnaround. i would rather buy it higher and be late to the story that happen early. >> for you, you can use it as a bicycle seat. slap it on there. >> i suppose i could. with the stock you would rather be late and let the turnaround take hold than try to anticipate something that hasn't started yet. >> let's move on. there is a list of the top stock pickers. they have all beaten benchmarks by more than 17% in the past year. they are coming on the show to make you "fast money." we're bringing you the top airline analyst, hunter kay. analyst from wolf trahan.
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great to have you with us. >> thanks. >> you brought three picks. first spirit air. >> karate kid me. >> spirit air was one of his top picks as well. the stock hit a four-month low on the news they have to do preventive maintenance. they are charging consumers for everything which is great for the investor. >> it's great. really good and innovative. the company is revolutionary in a sense. customers aren't used to it. you know, there is a lot of broad pushback in the media. they fill their planes consistently. the beauty of the fees, we call it unbundling or a la carte initiatives. it is a nice revenue contributor. spirit gets $53 per passenger each way in nonticket revenue which is the highest in the world. the fees cause consumers to modify behavior. they bring fewer bags on the plane. the planes are lighter.
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they can turn around more quickly. they charge people to print out boarding passes. you need to buy fewer kiosks over time. bryant air is a great example. want to see where spirit will be in five, ten years, look at ryan air. very profitable. >> you guys are some of the best sector analysts on the street. i say about the airline industry, why bother? investors lose money here constantly. the only stock you picked i like is copa air. there is passionate growth and capacity growth. talk about the sector and the reason. >> you're right. it has been historically a dreadful seccer to. you can get your face ripped off very easily. i get that. there are a lot of structural impediments that need to be addressed. you look at other asset bay transports. the rail jumps out. there are legitimate consolidations here. capacity is being rationalized.
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that's a big time facilitator of ebit-da. the multiples are so low. you look at market caps relative to revenue. they could be five or ten over the next 10 to 15 years. consumers need expectations managed in terms of what they feel entitled to in terms of buying the product. airlines feel more aggressive. as you look forward there is a legitimate argument that we are in the second inning here. time will tell. we need to make sure the industry minimizes the troughs. right? it's not about higher peaks. it's about losing eight bucks a share. >> not blowing up. >> if you can get three, four years of these guys are -- >> passenger expectations. they're getting zero. >> it's a big time oh enabler of commercial risk. it's a commodity product and consumers expect hot meals and customer service. this is a commodity product 90%
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of people choose on price. >> how much of it is about getting the commodity right? do you look like a genius then? >> we don't like making airline investment decisions based on oil prices. you could do it and make money. it's not something i ascribe to. in terms of how airlines trade with fuel they have not been correlated with fuel. only when fuel is expensive or cheap. as you look at the industry transforming it comes down to a simple thing. can you pass through the cost plus margin? as airlines roll back the hedge books which they did 10, 15 years ago they improved the ability to hedge fuel. as the hedge books come off which is what we are now seeing, airlines will act more rationally passing through fuel costs. hopefully the fuel equation becomes less of something people are paranoid about. >> we're going to leave it there. thanks for coming by. one of the top stock pickers.
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an options trade on ual. scott nations? >> that's right. ual continental got pummelled yesterday on dismal outlook in general. i will suggest something we don't do often. that's sell a covered call for stock rehab and sell the stock we own. because we are selling the covered call this is only appropriate if you own the stock. to do it i would sell the july $22 call for a dollar 60. that's just a tiny bit in the money. the goal here is to actually collect the money and get our stock called away. we would be called away at $23.60 which unfortunately is about where the stock was last week. again, the goal is to get called away. if we don't get called away do we keep the $1.60 through the july expiration is a 7.3% yield. even if we don't get called we have more cushion to the down side. >> there are two issues when you trade the airline stocks. oil is one component. visibility is the other
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component. as scott was touching on, visibility is murky with global growth. you want to be a seller of the space. it's run out of momentum. >> even u.s. domestic focused airlines like these? >> even if it is a u.s. domestic to focused airline. you want to look at the 10 and 20-day moving averages. they all appear to be going lower from here. >> up next, a company bringing healthy returns to diets and portfolios. we are talking to the boss of united natural foods to find out how and why the company stock is staying ahead. still to come, the "fast money" trade of the day. josh has a play that could have your portfolio hitting the bull's eye. to find out what's behind the curtain, stay tuned. more "fast" ahead. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac
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we held it from 20 to 32 which was three days. now it touched 42. this morning at some point i don't know where it closed. it's very expensive here, not that it can't go higher. it has a nice growth story. they did a nice job bringing it out at the right time. in you look at raffle lauren and the differential evaluation, i wouldn't short it but don't be long. >> we can't say the cheap gets cheaper and not respect growth. that's the key problem here. when you find legitimate growth, that's what happened with the quarter. these guys put up huge revenue numbers. if they can deliver people will pay more for the growth they can find. a lot of hedge funds have oh cover on that. the company delivers numbers like today. you get squeezed. >> let's move on. united natural foods reporting better than expected earnings. the organic foods and supplement distributor seized high growth
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potential as more consumers switch to organic foods. unfi is up tp% year to date while herbalife and others struggle. is this the healthiest of the healthy? steve spinner joins us. great to have you here. >> thanks, michelle. >> melissa. >> sorry about that. >> no problem. i get it all the time, seth. only kidding. united naturals is a primary supplier to whole foods here. you extended the contract to september 2020. but what are you doing whole foods cannot do or chooses not to do for itself? >> i wouldn't comment on any one customer. we tend to have the greatest sku offering across north america. that's the thousands of products that we offer our retailers that are innovative in the natural organic and specialty space. united natural foods is the
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largest north american distributor of products in these categories. our distribution centers are spread out across north america, closest to the consumer. we are a terrific choice for retailers who want to be differentiated in the space. >> it's karp. i know you have obviously a very close relationship with whole foods. i wonder though given their scale, their size, why do they need you? >> any retailer -- whole foods or any other retailer we provide a service to chooses to use united natural foods because either we can do it more efficiently. we have a lot of intellectual capital or phenomenal people who live and breathe our products. one thing about the industry is that it's about innovation. you have to be on top of it. we feel that there is nobody better than our folks to go out and find the latest, greatest products we can make available a across all of our retailers. all of those things go into decisions that retailers make to
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choose a distributor like united natural foods. >> steve, i know you don't want to comment on any specific customer. i read one of your presentations and you do talk about specific customers in that. i think we have to address it because the street is look at how diversified your customer base is. you address it in the presentation that you are looking to sign up conventional supermarkets like safeway, for instance. where do you see the biggest growth in terms of expansion away from whole foods? >> i think there are a couple of big opportunities for growth for us. we have certainly been growing the supermarket business faster than any of our other channels. that's primarily driven by adding a whole new set of specialty skus to the mix that we never had before. our conventional retailers are seeing value in doing that. i wouldn't underestimate the strength of the independent retailer. that's where a lot of product innovation comes from.
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in the last quarter the independents grew 9% which is a strong indicator that the demand for natural organic and specialty continues to grow. >> all right. thanks for joining us. we have breaking news so we have to cut it short. steve spinner from united natural foods. want to go to mary thompson in washington, d.c. she has comments about jamie dimon's released testimony from a senator which could give us a glimpse as to how jamie will be treated tomorrow. >> that's right. these are excerpts from senator tim johnson's opening statement. he's the chair of the senate banking committee and will be chairing the hearing where mr. dimon will testify tomorrow. this is from senator johnson's opening statement. today mark it is two month anniversary of mr. dimon's tempest in a teapot comments where he down played concerns from initial media reports of the chief investment saufs trades. we later learned it was an out of control trading strategy with little to no risk controls that cost the company billions.
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this is in quotes, i have said before no financial institution is immune from bad judgment. he goes on to say, so what went wrong for a bank renowned for risk management where were the risk controls? how can a bank take on far too much risk? if the point of the trades was to reduce risk in the first place or was the goal really to make makeup? should any hedge result in billions of dollars of net gains or losses or should it be focused on reducing a bank's risk? as the saying goes, you can't have your cake and eat it, too. those are excerpts from tim johnson's opening statements. mr. dimon's statement released earlier. he acknowledged the risk controls in place at the office of the cio were not as robust as they should have. there was a transition going on that appeared to have basically made management their eye off the ball. it looks like he'll come under tough questioning about why this happened tomorrow. the hearing starts at 10:00 eastern and we'll cover it. >> mary thompson, thank you for
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the update. sounds like it could be rough sledding for mr. dimon. >> he's up to it. >> you think so? >> i do. >> it could be tough for johnson. if jamie dimon says, you have no idea what's going on. this could be like "a few good men" type of moment. jamie dimon will tell the truth. that is a huge problem for some of the senators who have no idea how this business works. >> all right. that's part of their fear. they have no idea what's going on. that's froubl. i agree with you. >> coming up next, we just insulted the entire u.s. senate just now. up next, headed to the twitter verse to give you the trades off your tweets. send them on in. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,
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turning data into useful answers. we're 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. the teacher that comes to mind for me is my high school math teacher, dr. gilmore. i mean he could teach. he was there for us, even if we needed him in college. you could call him, you had his phone number. he was just focused on making sure we were gonna be successful. he would never give up on any of us.
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coming up next hour on "mad money," cramer goes off the charts with a gutsy call. the s&p has been on a wild ride in 2012. is it about to change? jim's checking the technicals top of the hour on "mad money." meantime, oil falling almost as low as $82 a barrel today hitting levels not seen since october before rallying a bit. settling near 83. mark fisher was on the halftime report today. gave his thoughts on oil's next stop. take a listen.
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>> $83 is not the long term equilibrium price for oil. >> has? >> basically we have to be around -- either back to a hundred or 65. we are not staying here. >> a hundred or 6 # 5. glasso you were buying valera on the bet it's going to a hundred? >> there was a refinery taken off line right in their sweet spot. in the gulf valero has the footprint of 65% of refined products. that and tosoro are the plays there. they have been under weight energy. they look at the refiner space with large integrated names as a safer bet on energy. >> tossoro will have a free cash yield flow of 25, 26%. people expect buy backs. west coast refining margins have gone higher. i think of the 65 number. going back to the price of oil i believe -- not tomorrow. more like 75. when you look at the chart, i
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said this two days ago. 75 before 125 again. >> you think opec will let it go down to 75? >> saudi arabia has an interest in bringing down the oil price. they have neighbors they are trying to put pressure on. they know it's western-friendly. that's the customer base. that keeps alternative fuels and u.s. shale and all the thing thals make headway if oil goes higher. >> want to share some of the tweets. kim glen says, what's up with yndx. do you blame facebook? >> it's easy to blame related stocks. this is the google of russia. the big issues are the russian valuations. putin is cracking down on protests. this is weighing on yndx, a fantastic technology company worth a look here. >> trey asks, google's 50 day
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moving average looking to cross below the 200. >> it's not a real aggressive pierce here. it's also running out of momentum indicators. >> slow and steady. >> slow and steady. >> okay. just wanted to clarify. up next, what lies behind this curtain? take a look. it is our trade of the day. it's one that certainly hit it is mark in just three minutes. we're lifting the curtain. stay tuned. laces? really? slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] get the mileage card with special perks on united, like a free checked bag, united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks. ♪ okay. what's your secret? [ male announcer ] the united mileageplus explorer card. get it and you're in.
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welcome welcome back. we are live at the nasdaq market site. i know you have been waiting, waiting to find out what's behind the old red velvet curtain. josh brown, tell us the trade of the day. >> so i came on and i put you guys onto walmart on the breakout. we're seeing the same thing now with target. the two are very similar. i think target might have even more room to run. so $58 was the breakout level. $58 and change. it got up to $59 and change, pulled back. right here is so perfect. basically the risk reward, 55 is major support. if you want to pull it back and look at a five-year chart you're talking about a run to 70 not
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being out of the question. 12 points up, four points down. you have to love it. the fundamental story, putting aside the breakout is a simple one to understand. this is a company that continually beats expectations. 12 consecutive quarters of beating the street's earnings. you are talk about a company that's just completed a $5 billion buyback over the last five years. tomorrow is the annual shareholder meeting. we could see another buyback plan announced. we could see a dividend hike. remember, the company's stated intention is to go to $3 a share in dividends by 2017. they are paying 2% now, $1.20. a lot could happen. $60 a share going back to -- i think it's the high of 2008 or 2007. that's where fireworks start to happen. that's the level to watch. >> i want to ask karen. are you a believer in target especially at a time walmart is going aggressively on the price front and they are willing to under cut?
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. >> target has been around a long time. they have done a great job. i'm with the contrarian here. >> wow. >> i like target. >> what does that make him then? >> we'll make a lot of money, karen. don't worry. >> new kids on the block? were you a fan? >> embarrassingly, a little bit at the time. >> i'm sorry. >> stupid. cleermz . [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪
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final final trade. scott nations? >> let the record show i'm the only one that has not insulted the u.s. senate today. jpmorgan. tomorrow is the psychological bottom. >> it wasn't too late. >> josh brown? >> i'm down with tgt. >> tim? >> bbd. >> grasso? >> lng. if it doesn't work use 12 as your floor. >> karen? >> i have to stick with the contrarian. i'm going with tgt. >> keith? >> buy gold. sell at 1648. >> 9:00 a.m., squawk on the street. jamie dimon is in front of the senate banking committee. join us for more "fast money" at 5:00.
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