tv The Kudlow Report CNBC June 15, 2012 7:00pm-8:00pm EDT
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but i am very concerned about lousy numbers. are we headed for recession? i hope not. this is "the kudlow report." our top story tonight? a cynical political ploy before the election. president obama circumvents congress and institutes policy to stop deporting as many as 400,000 illegal immigrants illegally. there are parts of his plan that i support. most especially military kids should certainly get work pefr mitts for jobs. if you defend this country, you ought to get work heere when yo come home, but by passing congress? that i can't accept. take a listen to this. >> it is the right thing to do. excuse me, sir. it's not time for questions, sir. the next time i prefer that you let me finish my statements before you ask that question.
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is this the right thing to do for the meamerican people. i did not ask for an argument. i'm answering your question. >> very odd story. we talk about the dow. it climbed 115 points, the s&p 500 up 14, the nasdaq closes the week up 36. the world economy continues to teeter over the outcome of the greek elections on monday. in the worst case scenario that could include a major run on all the southern european banks. it really is the greatest known unknown of this whole story. however, i also continue to be worried about the threat of recession and more bad numbers in the usa. today manufacturing production fell for the second time in two months. consumer confidence took a big drop. we're going to be all over this story.
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three angles, economic, political and constitutional impact. let's first set the stage. here are all the details. >> good evening. it was a surprise move and a sweeping announcement that experts say. simply the right thing to do. >> effective immediately, the department of homeland security is taking steps to lift the shadow of deportation from the young people. over the next few months, eligible vims who do not present a threat will be able to request temporary relief from deportation proceedings and apply for work authorization. >> so here are the details of the president's plan. under this, they would stop deportation proceedings against those people who came to the
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united states under age 16, are in school or have graduated from high school, have completed military service, have had no serious crimes and are currently under the age of 30. when asked about this today, mitt romney campaigning as the republican nominee for the nomination was critical about this. >> and larry, the fact that this could be reversed by a president romney if he show chose really makes some of the question here about how long this will last politically this reporter, neil monroe from the daily caller interrupting the president during his remarks. that is a breach of white house protocol and not something i have ever seen in all the years
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i have been going to the white house. reporters do holler questions but they generally wait until he has finished his prepared remarks. >> let me tell you, we will explain why i think this is a cynical political election ploy even though i do favor some of these. take a listen to what the president had to say on the whole matter. >> that's just not the case. there are enough laws s on the books by congress in terms of how we have to enforce our immigration system. that for me to simply through executive order ignore the congressional mandates would not conform with my appropriate role as president. >> all right. that question directly contradicts what he said today.
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not give how about brainiacs coming over to help us in high-tech. going to damage the cause of immigration reform and not helping. joining us we have maria theresa, the founding executive and with me here in studio, cnbc contributors, jennifer, again, i am totally in favor. i don't think the republicans are so great on this either. why did obama decide -- what is it called? prosecut
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prosecutorial discretion? >> this is meant to make a political statement. the irony of this is as we all know, a republican was moving towards a plan that would look very much like this. a constitutional process that we have with our executive bramplg. but the president didn't want the oget left in the dirt and dust so he jumps ahead at a parade. and i like what he had to say in 2011 more than in 2012. >> i just want to raise this again. could not suspend deportation through executive action because there are laws on the books that congress has passed. end quote. maria, how do you get around that and is obama setting the course of immigration reform back because of the fire storm where he is violating for election reasons what he said a
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year ago? >> i think what he is doing is trying to throw the ball back into congress. there has been a lot of talk saying he is saying it is temporary. unlike rubio, it provides a pathway to legalization. >> but you can't by pass congress, maria. you just can't do that. of course he is. that is precisely what he is doing. and janet is going to be the one to enforce this. what's your take on this? again as i said before, i don't think very much. i do like what rubio is trying to do. and mitt romney did say if latinos serve in the military
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they should get to work here. what's your take on this? where is this going? >> let's get this legal. i think you have a 2011 clip. he said we look at all the laws. he could not by pass those as president. he really is the president right now. we don't have a president right now. we have a professional candidate who every couple of weeks makes a declaration ignoring the fact that we're headed towards fiscal collapse. with don't have a president at the moment. it's amazing that some of the president's biggest achievements is of dubious legality. major achievements. >> this doesn't have anything to do with colorado or new mexico or north carolina.
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this doesn't have anything to do with that. were the identity that there may be politics engaged in a political year by a president is not unusual. >> i am totally shocked. >> that's no big deal. the issue, though, about immigration is a serious probable you must be the only person in america who thinks there is a possibility for bipartisan agreement on this. congress has failed to do anything for yeefrs. we still have not had a bill from the president. in fact. beginning to. not as indicated, he is explicit about that. and you know how you find out? you go up on the hill and you
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talk to them. you introduce legislation. this president is exactly right. >> that's not true. >> hang on a second. i'm going say, they have got 55 votes on the dream act and republicans did help stop that. i'm not thrilled about republicans on this, either. look, jennifer is right. oba obama. they did not say that this is about winning colorado, new mexico and north carolina. that is really explicitly what this is about. >> he is trying to close in we are talking about separating
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families. you can see why the president realizes he has to make a quick fix for political gain. that's absolutely true. he is trueing to prevent what is going to happen now with the supreme court where they will rule on the arizona legislation to figure out do states have a right to create and craft imfwrags reform or does congress? >> is there a contradiction there? if the president wanted to preempt arizona, he cough. president bush didn't control congress and he went to try to pass immigration reform. it didn't work but at least he made the college try. secondly in terms of giving support and taking care of our friends in the community, this does not give them any assurance, this does not give them any certainty in terms of
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planning. >> it's only a yearover two. >> the next president can come along and go ahead and report that. >> barack obama is not going to change the policy. is mitt romney going to change it? i think this is good politics on the part of the president. it forces mitt romney. >> what's he going to do? >> you can't have it both ways. >> let's never deal with congress. >> jonch w. bush is the theme of subverting the rules of congress. >> you guys -- >> w was in favor of this. george bush is ted kennedy ask john mccain are all in favor of the street. >> i understand. i understand. unlike our current republican nominee. but i'm telling you, george w
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bush was the king. you really are opposed to the idea. >> we think it's legal. >> at a loss. >> the environmental laws he can't enforce? >> how to enforce the law. >> i think we -- >> we have to go around the table. maria, this phrase, prosecutorial discretion what does that mean? is this eric holder who may be on his way out? is this janet who does not have legal jurisdiction? is this david axelrod, the campaign manager? who has that discretion? i don't understand any single part of this. >> that is short of an executive ord every. not exactly an executive order. >> i don't know what the hell it
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is. >> it actually -- the president is not going to be the one exercising it. it is coming from the department of homeland security from what i understand. as far as janet napolitano, in her position, from what i understand -- >> she has the power and authority to do that? >> 11 year sen sense. >> what can janet napolitano not do? >> the president also has -- >> you are incredible, kudlow. >> presidents and executives have discretion in terms of which they choose. how they choose. >> exactly. >> i am glad he did that. >> the president has the discretion. >> i want to ask -- jennifer? >> i was. >> you are recovering. i just want to ask you, maybe sit david axelrod. you will find out who the swing
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states will vote for and if they vote for obama, then they will be allowed not to be deported. is that possible? this is the most politically cynical ploy i have ever seen and it will probably be cleared by the campaign. >> that's the way i look at it. >> you speak more truth than you might think. look at the waivers. >> they are trying to pass in florida and other states. you talk about cynicism. >> anyway, maria, theresa, kumar, thank you. we have more work to do tonight. might there be a negative economic impact? that's right. it will be a negative economic impact. permits to 800,000 people. but can we absorb them? we will ask them to -- a form
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every top economic advisor for president george w. bush who basically favored the dream act. mitt romney, we're going to cover his bus toufr. it's the magical mystery tour. whom should he pick? or none of the above. we are holding a flash poll right now on "the kudlow report" facebook page. that capitalism must be supported by the rule of law, unlike this proposal. [ woman ] for the london olympic games, our town had a "brilliant" idea.
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bad economy. >> good to see you, larry. >> i am in favor of many of reforms that obama is proposing. the trouble is there is no due prosacess running through congress. >> that's my area. >> i got excited. >> ages 16 to 19. 24.6% what troubles me about these numbers is this could be the wrong time for these reforms because we have such high unemployment as it is. can the work force absorb this kind of immigrant work every permit immigrant infiltration? >> this is a question that has
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been researched to death. the basic finding, i think, in that literature is the effects are pretty small. the effects of having an immigrant population come in are minor on the economy as a whole. they tend to be less than minor on the individuals with whom they compete. so your point about how is this going to impact native born americans who are in the same age group and in particular with the same skill set. >> so you're saying we could absorb the extra immigrants who could get work permits? this is a doable thing? is that what you're saying? >> what i'm say something it's not going to make the current situation much worse. so the current situation right
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now it's not going to get a whole lot worse. but c what it will do, what it will do, larry is to the extent that it has not impacted at all it will be on the people who are the closest substitutes for those people. it will be people in the unskilled trades and in the areas where you are concerned that these are low income individuals. >> you do have -- look, unemployment is already said. so largely unemployment rates is 15%. and some people have built that up to 23 million people who are at it or want better jobs. it would seem to me, and again, i actually favor a lot of obama's reforms. my problem is he is by passing congress. if the economy was growing at 5, 6%, if the unemployment rate were down, it would be a lot
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easier to get the immigration reform through. >> i agree. if you think back to the period when i was serving the president bush, we did try to do a major immigration reform. we got close and i think that was actually a very good bill. it had a lot of things going for it. focused on legal imfwrags. earlier in a discussion with your guests when you were talking about the brainiacs. the united states is a team that everybody wants to play for. we don't al gait. obviously we want to have. we want to bring you the kind of skills, what you want to do is you want to bring in people who are going to be complimentary.
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>> it is the high-tech brainiacs that do it. i like that. the entire world on red alert for the greek sloet. printing presses are working overtime. i think that's what the central banks are worried about. this message. back from the worst economic depression. almost 4.3 million new jobs we're still not creating them president's jobs plan firefighters, police officers, work. right now. wealthiest americans congress refuses to act.
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>> welcome back to "the kudlow report." are we heading towards another lehman moment on sunday? michelle joins us from athens with the election details. good evening. >> larry, tonight we saw the final act of political theater before the election this congresswomaning sunday when the leader of the new democracy spoke before a large crowd here trying to rally every last vote. he praised the wait as a choice between staying the euro or by not staying in the euro by voting for the opposition. the opposition party says that it's absolutely not true. they want very big changes to the bail-out agreement that is keeping greece afloat. others say that is not going to be possible.
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we will find out about mid afternoon new york time on sunday. >> thanks, michelle. here's my quick take. whatever happens to greece on sunday, europe flat on its back. i continue to worry about a global recession. let me switch gears. all the recent data worry me about an american recession. i hope i am wrong. today manufacturing production fell. consumer confidence took an unexpected dive. before that, retail sales and factory orders down two straight months. getting hard to find a good number any place. household net worth falling all the way back to the 1990s. suffering from a very strong dollar. it's all part of a deflationnary effect on the economy.
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joining me we have two ace investors to react. stephanie, cnbc contributor and director of the search with the street. tom, the worst case scenario, a lehman event, bank run c contagious. is that on your screen? >> look, there is a material system risk if greece heads towards an exit. >> that's fair enough. that's the left wing party win. the other point is it's going to be oversending that. it's going to continue to go on fiscal union, banking union. i'm not sure a whole hell of a lot is going to change. i hope we don't have the bank run effect. even if we don't, as an investor what do you do about this? >> you can solve one piece of
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it. by the way, you might not get a resolution. you might not have to go to another resolution. but, the issues are, yes, we have spain, italy and all kinds of problems other there there are a lot of movings parts. we have raised cash starting in march. given the decline in the markets. given the valuations that seem to be getting more attractive. getting the dividend yields that are more attractive, you can find places to invest. you just got be careful. >> i am glad that stocks are up 213 points this week but i'm not happy about all the economic numbers and i believe that the correction is largely a function of the lousy job numbers. this economy in the second quarter could be as slow as 1%.
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gdp could be 1% growth. i have not seen anybody talking about that. i am looking at these numbers. why am i the only guy looking at these numbers? >> i think a lot of people are. we are scratching our heads a little bit. maybe some of this is weather related. take a look at auto sales. that suggests maybe sit pay back that we are seeing. that's another hint that maybe it's weather related. >> consumer confidence? we're in june. >> it's that you don't look forward to sales. >> it always worries me when economist become meteorologists. i'm troubled with that. i am troubled by that. and stephanie, i got to see some good. for me, personally, and i may be completely wrong. i am the first guy to admit this. to me, i got to see some good
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economic numbers which will sustain profits and sales and make me more optimistic on the economy. we got lousy numbers on manufacturing. i think the last three months, manufacturing is off by 4 or 5%. >> it is still accelerating and expanding. the ism is. >> regional fed numbers are coming down. you still have a big boost from prices coming down and that will help the consumer. >> stay with me on this. right. oil prices down. retail gasoline price at the pump down is that a function of falling growth and deflationsome and it's going to take a while for that to stimulate the economy? that's a tricky business. >> you know what? for now, the consumers are benefitting. credit has gotten a little bit better.
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housing has gotten a little bit better. those are the positives. jobs still stink and we are so far from where we need to be. >> what's your investment strategy? what's your favorite play. >> i think we are nearing capitulati capitulation. this is a lot like 2010, july. i think it's a lot like november, 2011, even though you are facing a greater risk. >> you are not going to get a big bank stimulus from the fed. >> ecb? a little. the fed has already given its dollars. they already have the dollars. >> that's right. and emerging markets. we will see easing there. but i think we are just estimating the known benefit of gasoline. and look at housing prices. >> what is your favorite
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investment stock. >> i like a dwichbs consumer. mcdomds i like a lot. i like boeing. >> i don't know any defensive consumers but that's an interesting theory. up next on "kudlow," what if, stay with me on this, what if europe was out of the picture? what if you never heard of greece? how would u.s. stocks look then? we will have a very important thought exexperiment.
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>> all right. >> all right. welcome back, everybody. here is food for thought. what if we did not have to worry about europe at all. never heard of greece, how would stocks and the economy look in the usa? let's talk to our pal, chief investment officer at trend macro. let me begin with this. we have a very weak u.s. economy. forget greece and europe. what does it mean if we have a weak u.s. economy? >> the weak u.s. economy is an amazing blessing. it's not like i want a weak economy but there is one amazing side effect.
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it's difficult for an incumbent president to get re-electioned. that is probably going to elect mitt romney who will make a strong economy. if we get a strong economy into the november election, it will get obama re-elected and that will create a weak economy. >> we will work on that. second the proverbial fiscal clip. if we don't extend the tax cuts, that could do great damage and may have already done great damage. what's your take on that? >> people are beginning to talk about it. last week the senate began talking about it, bill clinton began talking about it. the next morning larry summers toked about it on a competing network. both had to issue retractions.
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the white house forced them to issue retractions within minutes. the white house is so afraid of any spokesman for the democratic party coming out and saying what democrats said in 2010. >> that story is tarting to get out. when barack obama is forced to admit that the economy is not doing fine that means the tax cuts are going to get extended. >> and you think the weak economy is going let mitt rom y romney -- you are a bull? >> i am a bull for those reasons and stocks are so crazy. everybody is worried about the crazy little country. the good guys are going to win greece over the weekend and here in november. >> good guys always win. i will see you tomorrow on radio. >> see you there.
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>> there has bp a verdict in the trial for former goldman sachs director. we have that and all the latest breaking headlines. good evening. >> that's right. it does look like rajat gupta will be going jail. he was convicted of leaking detail of goldman sachs's loss. >> unemployment rates rose in 18 states. that's the most in nine months according to the labor department and the fast food wars are heating up. and lastly, almost 375 grand,
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that's what an original apple one computer sold for today. double what the auction house expected. amazingly it raised retail for $366 when it dpa bued in 1976. that's a pretty nice return. >> $666 now, now worth 375,000. >> nice return. >> how was the demand? >> interestingly enough, there is only six apple one computers available in the world today. >> so this thing's going to go up more. >> it could. it could. apple is a hot stock and it's a hot gadget. >> it's better than baseball cards. up next on "kudlow," the great economic speech was a bust. the question is are voters going to buy more obamanomics?
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tomorrow. makes three stops sunday in ohio with senator rob portman. on mopd he went to wisconsin with house budget chairman and house member paul ryan. finishes things up on tuesday. more on what he hopes to accomplish. >> the irony of mitt romney being forced to respond on immigration as we heard earlier is that it came as mitt romney was embarking on a bus tour. he is traveling to six states from new hampshire to iowa that have in total, 74 electoral votes. that is more than one fourth of the amount needed to win presidency. paul ryan, the budget committee kmarm, tim pawlenty, and john boehner.
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he is courting another important is and that is the republican base in small town, america. >> everywhere i go, i meet people who represent the best of america. they are hopeful, hard working, determined and proud. but they are also anxious and they are worried. they are tired of being tired. and they're tired of an attached and distant president who never seems to hear their voices. and then i make sure i continue to hear the people of america. rfr while the obama administration is watching nervously the results of the greek election and president obama is trying to influence leaders. >> all right. many thanks. . we have the magical mystery economic plan on the obama's side. here now we welcome back former
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clinton white house aid. author of the washington post. i want to go to you first and i have a list. >> in your opinion, who would help romney the best, the most. >> you don't want to pick someone who will overshadow romney. >> everybody says portman. i love him. everybody says portman. so i wonder if it maybe won't be. maybe it's a head fake.
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>> if you want someone who is easily the clearest voice on free enterprise. but are morally good and superior than the alternative, then i think you want to go with paul ryan. >> what about a woman on the ticket. what about a little collar and pi zaz and snap crackle and pop. >> i don't think those are qualities that he values very much to be perfectly frank. i think sarah palin for all of
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her many at buttributes. >> paul ryan has certainly put together budgets and acted head of the republican party. >> i mean age 41, 42. i know that marco rubio is 38. >> i think he would be. he has been a congressman an awful long time. his range of issues is actually quite broad. he with with people like flake. he is appealing to the demographic that romney has to
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hit which is middle class and affluent suburban voters. he comes from a democratic dilt. >> needs help winning middle class. if he has trouble winning that. >> wait a second. >> he got a couple votes. >> i'm saying that romney should win that group. that should be an easy win for him. if he does not, he is in trouble. >> one is affluent people. the suburbs. >> obama did great with. >> he did. and the other is for people who are not as affluent but in suburban america who don't want
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peop people. >> not the right person. even though he is not angry, he is young and looks a good part. he is very much in line with the far right winger republican party. >> he comes from purple state wisconsin. those are exactly the kind -- he wins them big. >> the democratic for president. >> obama's speech in ohio which was billed as a major economic speech. something we should all listen to. i know you listened to it. >> what i heard is that the president is going to run a very tough savage campaign. against george w. bush. >> all right. >> not -- he is not going to let george bush up off the mat.
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>> and 52% blame barack obama who is on the ballot. >> what we learned is not only does the president think that the last ten years are bad, he believes the last 30 years was bad for america, including the clinton years. and the deregulation, the free market temples. terrible idea. >> he is not opposed to the free market. he said that repeatedly in the speec speech. >> what happened to your former boss, bill clinton. >> he also -- >> he cut capital gains. >> he was a -- he was for welfare reform.
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rfr obama care -- >> the obama -- >> did obama say -- >> lower than -- >> -- >> not true. >> i didn't hear that. >> a facebook flash poll. look at this. rob portman, 14%. paul ryan 26%. and none of the above. 54%. that's it for tonight's show. i'm kudlow, we'll see you monday. this message. back from the worst economic depression. almost 4.3 million new jobs we're still not creating them president's jobs plan firefighters, police officers, work. right now. wealthiest americans congress refuses to act.
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