Skip to main content

tv   Options Action  CNBC  June 16, 2012 6:00am-6:30am EDT

6:00 am
is this. people first, then money, then things. now you stay safe. bye-bye. in or out, that is what millions of greeks are trying to figure out right now as they took to the streets today ahead of the most important election for your money since the financial crisis four years ago. welcome to "options action." i'm melissa lee. these are your actions here. stocks closing on the highs. the goal tonight is clear. finding a strategy that works amidst this chaos. before we do that, let ee get the latest from greece where the rallies have died done but the tensions have remained high.
6:01 am
no one has covered this more than michelle caruso-cabrera. >> remember, we're holding this because last month the results were inconclusive. too many splinter parties driving the vote part. this week one of the two parties will command enough votes, but it's not guaranteed. if we see yet another inconclusive election, boy, that would mean a lot of uncertainty. greece runs out of cash and the troika would have nobody available to any gosh yat with. secondly, if there is an outcome, who will win. will it be the pro bailout parties or the antibailout party. if the pro bail outparty gets a win, you'll rally. if we see an anti-bailout party,
6:02 am
we'll see it fall. what if banks step in and provide massive liquidity in case they actually control the election outcome. then you might actually see a counter intuitive rally. it's hard to know what's going to happen. expect a lot of vulnerability. back to you. >> don't miss her documentary "greek crisis" which airs here on sunday. we want to get to the markets and michelle makes a very good point. are we in for some count of counterintuitive rally. isn't that what we saw in the markets over the past two centuries. this belief that the banks will step in as things are falling apart, that's what really led us higher here. mike. >> i believe that's what the expectations were. you heard the rumors. a really good example we talked about on "fast money" earlier this week when we saw somebody run in and buy 60 calls.
6:03 am
so much risk buying on the downside made buying on the upside less expensive, relatively speaking. that's exactly what people started to position for. then today, you know, we saw the vix up with the s&p up marginally, that shows people are still really concerned about the downside. >> it shows like we're spring loaded to the upside or downside. something happens over there. something good happens. central banks don't happen. we're spring loaded to the downside. >> i think the only certainty is central banks will be chained to the desk. they're not going to be allowed out of the office. mike mentions the vix which didn't go negative until late in the day. if you discount the vix, then everything ended up higher for the very reasons you laid out. equities, gold a little bit. bomds. i think people are diskoupting greece because they're thinking even if the worst thing happens,
6:04 am
ben bernanke will be on the case. >> we're focused on it because the elections are on sunday. but the way i see it here there are a hot of other reasons that experts should be worried. central banks are ready to go. they're ready to provide liquidity. we're talking about solvency issues. let's talk how we started the week with invester bank news. we have to focus on some of the other issues. >> and it may seem like tall economies around the world on the verge of going you know where in a hand basket. at the same time we've seen a huge rally. it's within 10% of all-time high. so despite the concerns, we've actually managed to lift higher here, mike. >> i think one of the rchbs for that is the valuations of equity ossen a historical basis, especially when you look at the interest rate, people are looking for a yield and you
6:05 am
can't help but wonder, is this really a situation where we are positioned essentially to buy stocks at very, very compelling low prices. and think that's what -- you know, you talk to someone like leon cooperman, for example, that's the story he's going to tell you. every time things look bleakest, that's when you're presented the opportunity. >> again, today, the biggest trade in the spider options was buying calls. so i think people are trying to get exposure to the upside. >> i want to raise one stock that seems to have caught it, that's facebook. it's about the one-month anniversary since its ipo feej closing above the $30 mark, although by just a penny at the 4:00 close in new york. mike, how did you feel about that? i thought that was curious at the expiration on friday. >> you asked a good question. how much open interest was around in june. basically what happens when there's a lot of open interest,
6:06 am
sometimes what you'll see is sometimes market participants have to buy the stock below the strike or sell it above to hedge it. what it does is causes the stock essentially to pin at that strike and i think when we take a look at what's going on, that's exactly what we saw. that shows you -- there was 4.5 million shares to buy. it compresses the stock right to it. we talk about pin risk and i think we saw it in facebook. >> the question out there for a lot of investors be it institutional or individual invests what do you do now since the company is expected to set the quarter and the lockup of expiration looms. >> you're right in that the action has been pretty positive. if you actually have the 30 strike on in june and you're wonder what to do. if you're long, you probably don't want to exercise it. what if you short it? expect to be a sign, i think, on about half of your shares. that's what you're going to find out monday morning but i wouldn't expect facebook to be very far away from it on monday
6:07 am
morning. >> with the concern about the european motions you're taking a look at a name. nike is exposed to a slowdown in china or in europe. >> here's a company that gets 50% of their sales from overseas and they get a lot of their growth going forward. this has been a teflon stock until just a couple of months ago and it's started to make, you know, a top in formation here and all of a sudden there was a research during the week from a kpaul called otr global. they were commenting on weakening shoe sales or trends in china and the u.s. and weakening apparel trends in western europe. you know, that's all it took to kind of get this thing going lower here, and so when we think about the big growth names, starbucks and lulus, some haven't recovered. >> you're bearish. you're buying a put spread tonight.
6:08 am
it's always good to review that playbook and review that strategy again. this is a bearish bet where you buy one put and sell it at a lower rate to reduce your cost how do you make money? you want it to fall to the short put strike. that's where you make the most money. that's also where your markets are kept. dan, walk us through the trade. >> just real quickly, why i'm looking at nike, when you look at it, it's a very crowded trade. when you think about what we said, weakening trends in western europe and u.s. and china, this is one i want to impress here. i put a quarter position on. i bought a put spread in july. i bought the 97.5, 97.7. i bought it for 260. i sold one of the july put halves at a buck 35, my max was $1.25. i profit between 96.25 and 92.50 dlrsz. i can make up to 3.75.
6:09 am
i have losses up to 125 and 96 in the quarter and $97.50 with my max loss above $97.50. make no mistake about it, i need a big move. i think the markets go much l low lower. >> there are a lot of people out there wo don't want a company who has such a huge global exposure. nike has 36% of its revenues from outside the u.s. q2, the stocks are flat. compare that to underarmor. 94% of its revenues are domestic. it was up 12% in the second quarter. mike, do you still buy into this trend that you can still invest in this way, or did the trade already happen here? >> i think you make a grade point. we did see the trade happen because that was not the only stock. there were a lot of pairs trades where they took a look at how the performance was that had disproportion at amount of revenues and they materiel lly
6:10 am
underperformed in the same place. it's not like it's a cheap stock and it isn't like they're going to be driven. probably as much as any multi national consumer discretionary company might be. i like this trade. implied volatilities are great. this is one of the ways that you can take advantage of that dynamic by selling that lower strike put, take advantage of one of the names that is still considered basically a best in breed and still hope to participate in that trade. >> let's button this up. to borrow a phrase from nike, just don't do it that use because shorting any stock could be unlimited risk. dan's put spread offers a 4:1 payout. only cost $1/25. that's not bad. let's move on. it will come next week with the release of fedex earnings. the kpaem reports on tuesday and the results could have a big impact on markets. should you buy? let's go to the charts with
6:11 am
carter braxton. >> we like it a lot but let's look alt the charts. this is a standard two-year chart daily and you can feel the tension, meaning a well defined trend up, minor trend down. when you get to the apex or the end of the welk, you get resolution. the bears think it will break down, the bulls think up. take look at why. here's the weekly and monthly pattern. so basically these tops at 95 have a lot of authority. you have a series of higher lows. the tension here is not only the daily but the weekly chart and now look at the monthly. this really depends on your view of the world. this is a 20-year chart. this stock peaked at 120, crashed at the low 9. basically we're at 87 and change, the same price we were in '04. do you think the whole world is as you say something in a hand basket, you bet this way. if you think the world's okay, you bet this way. have a look up. there are two things that are
6:12 am
relevant and mike's going to pick it up from here. this is a 20-year chart on p.e. for fedex. we're trading at a historic low over the last 20 years but relative p.e. is relative as well. the p. ee. for s&p is also relevant. fedex is trading in the same multiples as s&p 500. the only time were cheaper than the s&p was 2000. the p.e. for the market was so high when the tech was running. '95 to 2000 was the big bull. that's as cheap as you're going to get it at fedex. you've got to buy it here. >> carter is for fedex. that's cheap. compared to historical p.e. >> compared to the historical p.e. and taking a look at the market, think we have another chart that shows fedex revenues. actually if we take a look at
6:13 am
that chart, one of the things it's going to tell us is the reason it trades to the market, they've had increasingly growth trends iffer a long time. this has historically been a growth company. the only reason as he pointed out there were a lot of tech companies and speculative that picked up. ecommerce, just in time dynamics are certainly in favor. if there's any pressure it's cost for logistics. you might see more people go to the rail if they have a fallen gdp, for example. here's a situation where you have a good company and variation in spending. >> tonight he's buying a call. it's a spimle centralgy but it's new and open up to the play boochlkt you want it to rise above the strike of the call. that's where you see profits. anything below that level you'll see losses by expiration. with that said, mike, what is
6:14 am
the trade? this is the third week in a row you're only buys a call. >> i've been doing it for the same reason. i'm looking at stocks trading low volatility, relative to the market. that's true in the case of fedex. i expect that the august 92.5 calls are going to open up 28 implied volatility which is on or about where the stock has been trading. so i'm going to spend $2.50 that's going to buy me that option. of course, there still are a lot of unknowns. i mean i'm trying to take advantage of a directal bet without taking a whole lot of risk without risking 3% of the stock price to make ballish bet, give them more months to play out. the reason the play's been effective with a lot of these other names is because they were trying to take advantage of what the markets were giving us and at the moment that's what we have. >> there's one line carter was missing. it was a support line at 85 that goes back to 120u. to me, the stock just a couple bucks way from that, when you think of it, he laid it out,
6:15 am
depending what your world view is. crude oil is a big impact on those guys' earnings. it's back 20%. i can see why you would think that would give you good earnings. to me what i think is more important when you get the earnings report is the international shipments look like. i think it's going be an early tell as we get into the q2 earnings period. i think the way mike's playing it is the right way to play it. >> crude oil could be a barometer for bold economic health. that's a positive. if you believe it's a sign for the glol economy. that's bad. >> one thing quickly, both of these trades, they both require a big move in the stock. that's fine if you understand. >> all right. good point there. one more time on the old stocks versus options. want to buy fedex into earnings. one could cost you nearly $9,000. mike's call offers much more leverage to the upside. will set you back 250 bucks. we'll see carter a little bit later on in the show. meantime, got a question.
6:16 am
send us an e-mail. we'll answer it in our one-on-one. that's right after the show on our website. optionsactions.cnbc.com. here's what's coming up next. can you feel the love tonight? last night colin carter made a bid on disney and the stock takes a trip to wonderland. they're in the green but can these characters find a way to make even more cash? find out when "options action" returns. time for "pump up the volume." the names that are heating up options traders sizzle this week. your name here, this company's bread and butter is billboards and other kinds of outdoor advertising. and here's a nice plug. they've been the biggest outdoor advertising club for more than a decade. they betted that the company would generate more good signs down the road. who is it? the action when "options action" returns.
6:17 am
6:18 am
6:19 am
where were they pumping up the volume this week? lamar advertising. welcome back to "options action." time now for a new segment called "i want more cash" because who doesn't. we show you how to make more money winning trades. a couple weeks ago colin carter made a bully rally with disney. they used more money making
6:20 am
options and that ain't know fairy tale. an option action sometimes risking less isn't enough. sometimes you want to make more cash and that's the case with colin carter's winning trade on disney. he thought shares of the media giant were going higher. >> we think this is going up and out. >> better pounce on the mouse house, thought mike. but 100 shares, that cost another $4,300. he spent 85 cents. now mike has a right to buy it at that strike price. but in order to make money, mike needs disney stock to rise above the strike of that call by more than the 85 crepts he spent on the trade or above $45.85 by expiration. anything below that level, mike will see losses. but instead of spending over for grand.
6:21 am
he spend more. that's the most he can loose on that trade, but it gets even better. that's because if disney shares rise that will increase in value faster than the stock means more money in mike's pocket and since the time of the trade, disney stock has been a blockbuster rising some 150% and making khouw and carter winners. how do these two characters make even more cash? ♪ oh, mickey, you're so fine >> had you bought disney at the time of the trade you'd be buying at a 10%. not bad. mike's call can be sold for $260. that's a return or more than 200% and that is good in any market. so carter got us into this trade. let's go back to carter to see if we should stick with it. carter, what do you see in the charts? >> sure. at this point, let it go.
6:22 am
it's held up very well. let's walk away. >> mike, what do you say? >> yeah, this is an option now in the money. it's closer to expiration so it's beginning to decay. i would be inclining to take the money if you feel compelled to invest. you could take a portion of the profits and powe dane chally roll it out and up. >> this is also a trade that depends on your world view here, mike. >> certainly. >> just on a world view, what is it? >> i think that's exactly right. the other thing is this has more direct exposure. i am concerned about what's going on so i would be inclined to make sure i'm keeping a very tight rein on it. >> when you look at them and they oar making 52-week highs, this is not a stock you would put in that category. these are the guys that made "john carter" not too long ago, okay? but at the end of the day it's
6:23 am
massive move. they nailed it. they did it at a time when things were kind of rocky. i think buying a call -- >> i think he said he loves espn and that makes sense. he loves john carter, too, by the way that and he's the only one evidently. >> our thanks as always to carter braxton worth. if you want more follow us on twitter and dan posts his trades. coming up, the final word.
6:24 am
6:25 am
6:26 am
time now for the final call. the last word from the option pits. scott, kicket off. >> i would define my risk and in a situation like, that i would generally be a seller of spreads. >> dan. >> yeah, well, you know, i'm the buyer spread in nike, but i agree with scott. there's going to be a lot of things going on, so to me in front of stuff, you want to leg into things. i put a small portion of my nike position. >> mike. >> yeah, i think spreading is a really good idea. something i might look to do. the other thing you need to take a look at is puts in the indexes have become so expensive, you
6:27 am
can finance so many calls by selling one of those that the risk reward has totally gotten out of whack. that's a good way to make bullish action. >> our time has expired. i'm melissa lee. stay tuned. "money in motion" is up right after this.
6:28 am
6:29 am

103 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on