the first four day winning streak since february 28. thank you so much for being with me tonight. i hope you will follow me on twitter and google plus. fast money begins right now. have a great night. >> stocks surge as investors bet the fed will once again save the day. >> i think this idea of the fed can't move during elections is a myth. >> mr. dimond goes back to washington but gets a little more push back. >> the united states has the best most transparent capital markets in the world. we want to get it right so that it works for america. >> tough politics, tough market. but there is always farming for money. >> we raise corn, wheat, soybeans and we raise data. >> bk's betting on bernanke.. this is "fast money."

live from the nasdaq market site, i'm melissa lee. a day in the green. make mo nis take this is a rally on top of a very, very strong gain for the past 11 trading sessions. this is a rally built on the expectation of liquidity. >> and perhaps some resolution or at least they are throwing a lot of stuff against the wall. germany is softening their stance on how they will buy bonds. the greek election took some of the tail risk off the table. so there is quite a few things that are happening that are snowballing here. it has kind of been a stealth rally.

i do think he will hipt or open the door and that will start the whole process over. >> the reason i think he can go higher is it was built on terribly oversold conditions. it is ridiculous in a place where i don't think we saw it on some level. the good news is that if you are a technical guy here, you have classic set ups in terms of the head and shoulders that says 1409 is your next level. we are getting a little bit of earnings clarity. fedex which had a tough guidance. at least you are getting some guidance and some sense. oracle after the bell, we are still probably a month away. but a lot of people were worried what is going on with global companies here? you have a good read. i think if you look at the price action here, because people might have been fading going into the fed tomorrow, i actually don't think they do. >> at the same time, is it a by the rumor sell the news thing?

perhaps extends twist which is probably a consensus on the street? >> i think it's all about maintaining the gains that you get in the marketplace. this is the very quiet rally. yet this is a rally where we are closer to the high for t year at 14.22 than we are to the low of the year. with eare pricing in a scenario that last week we repriced higher. the expectations for tomorrow, let's say they are disappointing to the street. all you want to do is maintain the gains, not give anything back and force a correction. same thing goes for friday. the meeting you will get in rome. don't give anything back. hold your ground and then you get a day like today when you see the appreciation. >> lots of things looked like value plays. do you feel more comfortable with the markets in the way they have traded over the past two weeks or so to actually get in and feel comfortable about the positions? >> it's hard to really feel

comfortable. there are so many forces that make it difficult for valuation to be the main indicator. i mean, i am happy if the economy responds to any qeu question mark number. i will be happy if we respond. i don't have a lot of confidence in this market. >> jim, let me put this to you. technology rallied. we had oracle come out and soothe some concerns about it spending. do you believe in this rally? >> i do. i don't think that is what we are talking about here.

thinking maybe the credit risk is starting to bleed into germany as well. at the end of the day, what is left to buy if they do come in with a twist besides u.s. treasuries, gold and u.s. stock market. i like big cap names with good balance sheets. >> any evidence that traders are feeling more comfortable? >> certainly we saw above 50 day moving average which is a good sign. a lot of pullish activity. and the banks and real estate. i think all of that is obviously some people indicating they are willing to make bullish bets here. in the near term, however i would like to see the longer term data drop.

>> let's talk financials. we have rerned to capital hill to address lawmakers about the multibillion dollar trading loss. take a lp. >> if a u.s. bank can't do the business at all, at all, because the rules are written so broadly, then we will lose a lot of business, they will not move to london but they will one day be in singapore, china and other parts of the world. >> shares of major u.s. banks seeing a nice pop on the market rally. but jp morgan remains down nearly 13% since announcing that loss back on may 10, 2012. >> it's a step when do you turn and get long jp morgan?

when they restore the share buy back program in the wake of that, while financials have deteriorated, you are seeing the u.s. centric financials continue to perform. you have u.s.b, you have wells fargo. they have recovered all of the losses that they have seen from that thursday evening announcement. >> why did you buy j.p. morgan? >> the most bullish thing that happened today is the fhfa came out and talked about basically credit easing. so they regulate fanny may. they said that the banks are being too tight. they are going to review that process and see if there is anything they can do to alleviate some of the bottlenecking. that is very big news for jp morgan, wells fargo and pmc. all four banks do well.

>> this may push more of the money out into the commercial and retail lending market this has been free money for them. i think this has been a very good environment. if you look at the housing numbers, the home builders have been a fans tick run. this should be some type of a corollary for some of the money center bapgs. you can see that at least there is some strength in the housing market. i'm not saying we are off to the races here but there is no question that the trends and troughing and building a base, building permits, those are very, very impressive numbers. the headline was not that great. i think this is very good overall for the banks. it works. they are making loans. take a look at comerica.

there is a recovery underway. these are the banks you want to be looking at. >> will there be hints of further easing from the fed? joining us now, senior economist. drew, always great to see you. >> good to see you. >> doesn't the fed have to extend for a certain amount of time? >> well, you could make that argument. >> the time to get off is when someone else is sitting on it. right now greece is sitting on it. they have the perfect tupt to exit. of course, the question is what happens to equities? probably nothing great. and the other 20% which i think definitely. >> get to the chase here.

>> i don't think it's warpted. i think the u.s. economy is weakening but i don't think it's one of the last bits of ammunition you have left. so i don't think it's warranted. the other factor is not just are they going to do a twist or not but how they actually structure it. there is lots of ways they can foul this up. right now i think all the risks lie towards executing poorly. >> what arrows do they have left. >> the main arrow is qe. i think they are saving it.

then the fed will come in and liquefy everything. you will be able to sell it but i think absent that, moving towards qe is really just a waste of resources. we have done work that suggests creating higher yields in corporate securities. >> it's brian. let me throw this at the other side of it. qe might work better this time because the avenues for those dollars won't leak out of the u.s. they will stay out of the u.s. because they are looking at slower growth. >> i see that argument but i would say that what they are selling or what they will buy, what do you hope to achieve?

>> they are not operating in the right markets. they are going to keep pushing on a door that doesn't get you into the room you want to be in. >> thanks for your time. always good to see you. we have already rallied very hard into this fed decision. what is a trade right now? and we actually have a fewnary joes. choose your own tradeventure. three potential scenarios. >> no full blown qe 3. and scenario number three, no real action, just some talk.

what is most likely? >> most likely i think would be scenario number two. number one would be all in in that environment. you get a lower u.s. dollar. you go mcdanlds and look at the names. what drew did not just mention and i think the fed goes here is tomorrow we're going to get the economic projections. look for them to take down gdp. look at them to go after what they keep if they do nothing, the dick's sporting goods, that is working as well. >> what say you? >> i think they will go with some twists and some strong

rhetoric. they can't extend it more than a few months down the road. so i expect twists and some talk of something else. i want to be long gold and big cap u.s. >> your trade venture? >> i think it doesn't matter. i would file it under the heading of you can't get a little bit preg napt. if you're going to say i'm going to do twist or qe, once the door is open, that's how you have to go down that road. that's what is going to help. when you look back at the other quantitative easings, that's a great yell. >> that's you. >> i thought i had those pictures taken off. >> you can't get rid of anything, right tim? >> the sky diving i was most impressed by. i think we are somewhere between two and three. if you look at the beige book that came out there is nothing telling these guys that the u.s. economy is imploding. they are very attuned to what is

going on in europe. this is where there can be extraordinary measures that don't necessarily have to beat the fed. >> the stars are said to be perfectly aligned. find out what he is watching. our own bk has applied himself today and come up with a shining trade of the day. two hints for the price of one right there. you must stay tuned. much more straight ahead. from around the world...

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rr. >> welcome back. s reporting quarterly earnings. more importantly they did trim their full year targets. they also trimmed the top end and what they are cite something weakened demand. >> if you think europe is going recover, adobe is going to recover.

adobe drk i say you hold off here. >> it has been working but it doesn't typically work into earnings. that thing was down almost 20%. in the options world traded almost six times. so we definitely saw a preponderance of bearish activity here. >> let's move on to the next trade. the vix falling nearly 4%. so we need to figure out what ta

to make of this. >> i think there are three indicators. the average for the quarter is 20.20. that giveous confidence to be in the marketplace. you have got small caps in technology which continue to work well here. 2% gains for both of them. that is telling you about the market's appetite. we talked yesterday. the trannies continue to look good. >> you noticed that? >> we're going straight market here. my mind is not going to the places that your does. >> the straight market? >> the 50 day moving average. again today it extended the gains from yesterday.

>> you have been silent on fedex. >> fedex really sets you up for interesting numbers to come. they lowered the bar to a point where i think they are almost snowballing and going into the next quarter. >> and now we have a technical take. larry, nice to see you. you are seeing very strong signals here. >> the early quick kwal ratio measures all stock trading here.

so we have got buy signal from that. more important, there is another quick call ratio. all options that trade. and that gave only 16 signal that lasts about 14 years. >> hopefully now it's support again. that break out coupled with vmp

ix falling below as many of the other commentators has mentioned is confirmation of those signals. >> larry, let me ask you, would you be looking for a 100 point gain? at that point you would look to get out or do you revisit all of the information? >> i would be revisiting. we are looking at a 1440 as a target. >> what indicators. >> the equity only does. by that time i would assume that you have quite a bit of call buying and we just to to see if it had got on the an extreme or not. because, as the margt is, it makes rounded tops and spiked bottoms. the tops are a little bit sloppier to discern.

>> larry, thank you. >> top of the show you said they had become too extreme. >> i think that it is room for the risk assets to go higher here. with as we head, bring your calendar and this will have a lot to do with it. >> this has been an awful quarter. >> coming up next. when we come back we will talk to the analyst. stay tuned. with the spark cash card from capital one,

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today. the stock down almost 6% on this deal. this makes you wonder. >> it really makes me, i don't know what they're thinking. this, i don't really get. a few red flags to me. questions one really needs to ask themselves. the company is issuing stock at i don't know where it will be. something like 12 times earnings to buy something at a much more expensive rate than that. that might be good, that might be bad. is that the bet you were making yesterday in wall greens? a new alliance will help them out. the third thing that i hate.

it is kind of made up nonsense. i get procurement cost cutting. that makes sense. they are in some control. >> but they do have cost synergies. yes, if you believe it. >> if you look at that chart, a lot of them happen closer to 2017 here is where we can get them. >> they are playing their stocks trading at 5.5 times ebitda. i can't imagine kkr is leaving a ton of money on the table. >> i like it better.

i like that a competitor is basically distracted for me. >> to jump in it is a great company. >> nice. >> that's stuff. >> good dental floss over there. >> really? >> in the uk? >> how ironic. >> lots of inventory. for sale. >> let's move on shall we? she raised eps guidance.

also raised the price target. really, should we get rid of the shares? >> the growth is very, very strong. it's running over 30%. higher than that. as they explore the international tupts. we are definitely there. we think at 36 times, the stock looks very pricey. actually it's 36 times 12 earnings. the entire category would be smaller than the energy category. i think it is realistic to expect when they lack the rehappen intro that sales growth will slow.

>> sitting there at 350 million. if they doid do a significant buy back would you immediately raise the price target? >> i would probably raise the price target and i have written about the fact that they could do a dutch auction. they could even spend more than 800 million buying shares back. but that really has not been the style of this management team. i am always thinking about the risk reward and the market is, you know, all the tail winds are already in place. it's hard to see significant new news that will take it up dramatically from here. >> you mentioned the growth rate. if it grows at this rate, then it would be bigger than the a carbonated soft drink market.

>> i know you don't cover starbucks but people that are getting into this indusry or sector now, seems like their growth rates migtd be overrated now. >> i actually cover the hpc intusry as well. with everything going right and expectations high. willing to come back i think there is a take-over premium in the stock. >> downgraded monster. tim? >> she also covers ambev bud. i love the great brazil yabian

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welcome back to fast money. gold saw its largest one day declines in nearly two weeks. profit taking from recent gains. what can gold equities tell us about the next market move veer? great to speak with you. >> good to be spoken with. >> you will see the equities

lead gold higher. you will see the gold equities market lead gld. you will see silver lead gold. you watch those things to see how effective and efficient and really well entrenched is the gold market. over the course of the past several weeks, we have actually begun to see the gold equities and especially the old line well intentioned large cap gold miners doing quite a good deal better than gld. >> does that tell you that one needs to make a switch? what do you do with this information? >> for the first time in years, i would much rather own the mipors than gld. i would much rather own the miners than gold, bullion or the gold futures. for the previous four or five

years, even as gld and bullion has gone to new highs the gold mining shares has deteriorated. then i think may have some sustainability. >> let's go to the ag space where the crop reports, very bullish for the underlying. >> when you're talking about the crop reports, last week's numbers were from the first -- the fed -- the usda supply demand numbers were effective and bearish and neutral. what we have seen is last night over the weekend, the crops have begun to deteriorate. the soybean crops were well into the ground. looked like we were off to the races for maybe the best crop we have seen in five or ten years. the drought conditions have

gotten a very substancetive and they have deteriorated rapidly. that is what fired everything off today. beans were up limit at one time. the russians have reduced their crop. >> i want to worry if i should be worried about meat prices. domestic beef demand is at a two decade low. is this just the market working itself out or are prices going to be pushed hi ee eed higher? >> i suspect that we have seen the highs of live cattle. the cattle market doesn't seem

to want to move higher. i bet we start to pick the size of the herd back up. i would be less bearish of hog prices than i would be of cattle. i think what you really should see is it's interesting. the companies that are really depending on cattle prices moving lower got squeezed, raised their prices. >> if they stick with the price increases they are made in the shade. >> they are made in the shade. >> all right. good to speak with you. you are worried about the corn crop. >> not worried. i mean -- >> excited. >> worried, excited, i guess. it was great action today.

i don't know if it's overdone. i still think it's a long way. >> okay. coming up next, david pogue gives us his take on the new tablet. plus coffee stocks have been warming up lately. perhaps percolating. we have got an analyst breaking down what is brewing. and making the call on whether the hot spring will continue. for "fast" right after this. 1-0 checking the charts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 looking for support, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 resistance, breakouts, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a few other tricks that i'll keep to myself. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's how i trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i do it all with charles schwab, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 because their streetsmart edge platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 helps me trade quickly, intuitively. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 staying on top of the market is key! tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and the momentum tool, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it lets me do it at a glance, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so when things shift, i'm ready. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 then to track the stocks i have my eye on, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i turn to schwab's high/low ticker. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so i can spot a potential breakout tdd# 1-800-345-2550 before it breaks out. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and get this...i can even trade, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 change my orders or check out my positions

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>> >> checking to see if nike is a slam dunk and is biotech the way to insulate yourself? jim is talking to you. >> microsoft unveiling its new and first tablet. how will the surface impact microsoft, its rivals and partners? we break it all down in today's "new york times." david, what we also don't know is how much this thing is. it's hard to really gauge it versus competitors. >> that's right there is actually two models. one is more like an ipad in that

it does not run actual windows but a stripped down windows and only apps designed for it and a pro version is an actual pc. it runs real windows software. it is astonishing that they got a pc into a thin tablet although not as thin as the other one. they have note told us the battery life or when they are shipping or the prices. it is a little hard to assess at this point but it's cool. >> something to the effect of is this microsoft's next zune? >> wait. are you asking me to assess a microsoft product? don't you have a less controversial question? we have seen the game plan before. microsoft does have a habit of looking over the fence and

saying why don't we make one like that and if if we change the deck chairs. the recesses of my mind i wonder if this won't be a replay. microsoft is two years behind the ipad. plenty of time to come up with the lid opens up to become a key pad with a track pad but apple has months to go match it. >> when they don't tell us when it's going to come out or what the battery life is, is that not yet known to them.

>> to get this thing into the public eye. they like to have it, i would think, available for christmas. clearly, at the event yesterday at los angeles where they let journalists play with it for two minutes, the flip out keyboard was fot working. sounds like things are really early. >> maybe too early if it wasn't working. david of the "new york times." microsoft had a nice rally. >> i think it's a little bit of all of it. performance year to dalt and about the race for number two in the tablet space because that is what this is. they are not going after apple. apple already has 55% of the tablet space. it will rise to 65%. this is all about who grabs number two. microsoft.

they did well with the x box. maybe they are able to propel that into success here with the tablet. they do have going for them that they have. >> for companies like star bucks and dunkin brands. let's talk more about coffee stocks. i am sure you have heard your share of coffee puns out there in your day in terms of the reaction, we have seen them lift higher in the past couple of trading sessions on this. what's the reality in terms of when star bucks and dunkin brands can capture the savings? >> so, pretty quickly, actually. we do have to get through second quarter calendar quarter numbers

where most of these kpaeps are still running through high coffee costs from last year. but then as we turn into the back half of this calendar year, we will start to see some deflation. there is certainly a lot less inflation in coffee prices impacting statements and out into 2013 should be a really nice earnings driver for starbucks in particular. dunkin is not impacted as much because it is a franchise business and we can spend a second on that if you would like. >> in terms of the revenue side of the story and assisting investors in getting comfortable, 32 times to me, it looks tough to get excited about. latin america, brazil, is this in the near term? is this a reason to justify the

multiple? >> i look at the multiple on 2013 numbers and it's trading more in the low 20s. i think that is an attractive entry point there. including europe where they are break even. >> good to speak with you. apdy from jefflys. bk, just quickly in terms of the trade? >> one is more internationally exposed. andy brings up a good point. dunkin is franchised. >> i think it's very tough to trade coffee futures.

as you bring up, there are so many different moving parts there. if i had to choose the two, i would go with dunkin because it is more domestically oriented. >> all right. the eagerly anticipated moment is finally upon us. our own bk is conducted a winning trade and he is just minutes away from revealing what it is sis stay tuned. this is the first car that i've been totally in love with

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