on have indication all next week, that's a good way to go out. >> you have so many stalkers following you up there. >> they can't find it, it takes too long. thank you for watching "street signs," have a great weekend, guys. >> take care. good afternoon, welcome "closing bell." we're at the aspen ideas festival where business leaders are meeting to dust hot button issues. i'll be zeroing in on the economy. we'll talk to alan greenspan later, but check out this 240 plus point rally. bill griffeth looking at this

move. >> we can blame europe once again this time as swuls wraps up the first half of the year on hopes the europe is making real progress in tackling it's debt crisis. it turns out the eu summit was a big deal. they're on track to wrap up the second quarter with losses of about 3%. the dow is up 243 points, a gain of almost 2%. it's gone sideways since then. the best performing average today, the nasdaq, up 2.8%, or 79 points, to 2928. starting to knock on 3,000's door again. so it today's move a turning point for the markets or is this euro bailout driveen rally another sign that we're going up again just because of headlines,

in other words, for all the wrong reasons? >> in today's "closing bell" exchange. we have a great panel today. good to have you all with us. we'll kick it off with you stephanie, let me ask your thoughts about this rally. >> i think it is significant. they're working hard to get a unified banking regulatory structure. i think having the esm capitalize is very, very important, and the stimulus program they put in place are all very good things. we don't know a lot of the details or a lot of the times, but that said, if you can say that europe has stabilized, if you can say that europe has stabilized, then the focus comes back to the u.s. and what happens here. i think we will muddle through

at 1.5% gdp, and you have earnings and what companies say. >> michelle, the idea was to bring borrowing costs down, have they? >> absolutely, when you look at italian and spanish yields in the last 24 hours, they're lower in the wake of what we saw in the last 24 hours. we have seen other fixes before, right? this supposed spanish bank bail out. so the fact that we have seen yields means to some degree the markets do believe it. how long will it be sustainable? we don't know. the broader headline too that is so crucial, is germany flinched and gave way, they conceded. we haven't seen much of that. that could mean we're getting more of a path moving forward. >> i think there was more to the germany-italy soccer game that

met the eye. >> rick, santelli, how about our own market response in this country, our rates higher today. >> yeah, rates are a a little higher today, three or four basis points, but they're basically unchanged on the week. i think both of our guests including michelle on europe, they had a lot of great ideas, it's bringing it to the market that counts, and i think there is a bill ral of brandon in effect. we have the jobs report on friday, and believe me i think especially after last week's poultry numbers, that will be a number for the market. it will be a bigger run up in races for that safe harbor

temporaryily reversed. >> yes, that will be an important report. will we see this come back continue in the second half? we'll get to keith coming up, stephanie, what's your thought, gdp important on the heels of those jobs numbers? what are your expectations for friday, a week from today, and that gdp report. >> i think we get through china's data over the weekend. that will be very, very important to me. e want to see how bad the numbers are and do they continue to ease. my guess is they do over time. i think monday we have to get through our ism numbers and the word is that they will not be so good. we have to see how the market reacts to that. and oskt, the jf course, the jo are not good. we'll have to see how the market

reacts to these things. i just think that we're going to have to focus more on earnings and listening to what companies have to say, and so far we're not off to a good start. >> bill, a lot of people are expecting, the problem is a lot of people think estimates have to come down for the second half of the year, they're still way too high on earnings. >> yes the second quarter we're looking for flat earnings, so i think you have a low bar going into the second quarter, but earnings guidance will be key but those numbers have v to come down. valuations are trading really cheap. so i think you still want to be in the market, you just need a balanced portfolio. >> so what do we watch for as they begin the dirty work to figure all of this out. >> you want to see how germany responds to angela merkel.

can she convince those that she works with that she got enough concessions for what she gave up and did she calm everybody down. we showed you the spanish and italian yields, watch the german yields, they went up sharply in the last 24 hours. it's dawning on everybody that the more they concede, the more they have at risk for money and they're borrowing costs are beginning to ride. how nervous does the market get about the burden germany is carrying. >> thank you for joining us, we will see you later. here we go, into the final hour for the day, week, the month, the quarter, the first sixth months. >> the half. >> yes, up 240 points right now. >> all right, we've got your second half investing play book coming up next. stay with "closing bell," which

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welcome back, all of the major averages higher today, but brian shactman has a stand out that's lower today. one name popped up that's down 1% and is not trading as much as usual, it's facebook. down over 1%. the wall street journal talking about twitter having more online advertising success than facebook. it is kind of fascinating that the rising tide is lifting, you would think social media would be one of those boats, but it's not. meanwhile, the dow

industrials trying to close out with the best in 13 years. >> the do you trajing -- there huge, can, the index is down lead by commercial medicare, and wellcare is lower. the global growth concerns have not been alleviated across the board. not by a long shot. look at shares of nike hurting today after disappointing earnings, and then you have ford forecast to lose $570 million in operations overseas. those shares also talking a hit today. it's not all great.

>> thanks, so we're 45 minute minutes away from closing up the fist half of the year. who were the leaders the past six months sector wise. we had telocom financials, consumer digressionary, and medicare. >> yes, the worst for energy, materials, and consumer staples, so will the first half leaders keep leading in the second half. dan greenhouse is with us and jack is downing us, let me kick it off with you, how do you want to be exposed the sec half of the year. give us your vision what the think for the next year looks

like. >> generally i like cheap sectors moving in the right direction, and they still remain health care and financials. the question is are they cheap for a reason? we have financials obviously cheap because we have the new regulatio regulations. dodd frank and the volcker rule. will they power through and get a little elbow room for the second half of the year? that remains to be scene, i think they eke out gains, and then we have health care with the supreme court reaffirming obama care, you know, that's going to be now a new hot button issue in the campaign. is that there for a reason, and is that something we want to power through. i'm going to go with those two. >> dan greenhouse, you like technology, right? >> yes, we have liked it for a

number of years now. to a large degree, the tech sector is really from the valuation point the only sector that e we like. we continuously advocated that investors put on a defensively positioned portfolio, and if you look at some of the names, a lot of them have done quite well. to be certain they're not the star performers year to date. if you look at the leader board, you will see names like sears or tripadvisor. so they have not fit with our thesis, but we're comfortable in the second half of the year with what we've been saying. >> you also have the look at the big themes, right? obviously you have an election year, what does that mean in terms of impacting your money.

you have europe looming. any thoughts how these big events play out that will very likely dictate where these markets go? >> i think there is this stealth res resurgence that people are not appreciating. as we see poor headlines in europe, a lot of people lose sight of the fact that that is the other side of the coin. it's remarkable to me that air bus, for example, is now opening up facilities here. we have much better wage and labor situation, and of course natural gas prices here, so i will see a huge courage in capacity, moving from the developed countries like europe, canada, and i'm hearing capacity to china.

i expect that to continue and we expect to hear more of that. >> that's good for the u.s. from a economic perspective. if people believe those are fundamentally responsible in general for lower ratios than might be realized, while that will benefit us economically, that does not drive stock prices higher. >> while correlations between the u.s. and europe are remarkably high, we can't lose sight of the fact that performance has diverged, the s&p outperformed europe by 456 to 50%. so let's forget ringing correlation, and mouf ove our assets, i think we will be able to steer clear of these markets, particularly since legally the euro is still overvalued.

>> very good, gentleman, nice discussion there, appreciate it, have a good weekend. >> thank you, you bet, heading toward the close and we have about 35 minutes left in the day. we're holding on to these gains into the close, maria. >> yeah, a lot of people saying the signs look ache a break out. >> and after plunging, is oil too cheap to pass up?

welcome back, a big day for equities today, oil prices closing out a tough first half of the year. >> maria, the traders say they do not want to be short going into this weekend, july 1st

starts the sanctions against iran. there's a lot that can go wrong, the risk level has been elevated a bit in that region with what's going on there. that's something people are watching, but the fact that we're seeing oil prices up $7, that doesn't tell you what's happened for the quarter because it's been a bad quarter for oil prices. >> i think it's like 1.8% decline for wti for the mont or something, thank you very much. and pretty good first half of the area for the dow as we said, we're having the best june in 13 years. for the dow itself, looking ahead, where do you want to invest right now. it's what i want to talk about, and we have angela berkeley, and

obviously, you know we're having pretty good day and month right now. what do you want to put some money in here? >> i think we brought the chart of the nasdaq for technology in general. i have not seen anything to alter it so far, so we have just put a couple trends in here. the general uptrend since swell, 2000 lows, and i say it's leadership because it's one of the major indexes that surpassed it's 2007 peak when a lot of them didn't. the dow and a lot of others failed right before the resistance. >> how much resistance is 3,000 right now do you think? >> there's a number, 2940, that's just a couple points from here for last week's high. if we open that we can get back

to 3,000. i think tech looks pretty good. >> fundamentally peter, who do you like? industrials or technology. >> i put them both in the same bucket, they're still susceptible to the growing economy. i don't want to initially be in both fundamentally. policymakers keep this market elevated whether it's the news overnight, or the fed going on more qe, or the ecb cutting rates or the bank of england, so it's a constant tug of what which i think means the market should be lower than it is now. money printing continuing to keep asset prices elevated. >> wouldn't it be nice to be able to trade on the fundamentals again. wouldn't that be nice. andrew, peter, thank you for

joining us today. >> yeah, really, rock and roll, bill, rock and roll. we have 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day, a market holding on near the highs, nasdaq up 75, technology and industrials leading this market today as we close up the first half. from jpmorgan's trading losses, there's a lot of question marks around the banking industry. and later, a pair of big interviews from aspen. >> is the federal reserve doing more than good? and what will it take to spark growth in this sluggish environment. al alan greenspan is in. and the aspen ideas festival.

let's look at the banks, check out these numbers here. the biggest names in the sector are set to submit living

willing, or what they plan on doing in the event of another financial crisis, kayla is working the story. >> five u.s. banks are submitting these 1,000-page plans that are shortcuts to liquidating themselves. it's an extreme worst case scenario, but the fdic and the fed want to be better prepared. next week when portions of these wills are released, perhaps most interesting will be what do banks now consider to be core businesses and peripheral businesses. what's on the short list to get sold? banks understand that perception, and so some sources say they're actively holding talks with the heads of some of the businesses to make sure they're sticking around until that dire day comes. they will also have to make

disclosures about their derivatives. so we'll certainly see how jp morgan frames it's own. a bridge company can come into the process. if this had happened with lemman. the plans will change from year to year and that's making doubt for when push comes to shove, but wall street says preparing has still been helpful. back over to you. >> it's helpful, but it could be dangerous, right? if they put on paper and say what they consider selling, it's like when hewlett-packard said

they were thinks about selling the pc business. will the government get trigger happy if a bank gets into trouble but it's not a dire situation. will they be tempted to you it. maybe they will, and do you news to lose another big financial institution. we have not gotten there yet, and it will take a year to sift through the documents, so we will see. >> i love it. i love how a 1,000-page document is the short version. >> yes, and helman's $600 million they paid, you're handing a bankruptcy judge some too, so that helps too. >> thanks, kayla. so jpmorgan trading, should you buy or sell bank stocks the rest

of the year. >> let's talk to eric, you like the banks, what are the fundamentals you look at? is it europe, our own fundamentals, or something else that gets you to like the banks right now? >> we look at u.s. fundamentals primarily, and overlay them with what's going on with europe. we're back to looking the u.s. fundamentals. one of the things i a highlight is the mortgage questions are stabilized and may decline. that was a major expense in the last two years. >> but it is a different story when you look short-term verses long term. the estimates are coming down, is this a different scenario when you look short term quarter for quarter verses longer term? >> yeah, i think it's completely

different. people have not done themselves any favors. things like the scandal, ipo underwriting. short-term things look bad. long-term we're focused on price. the big three, u.s. banks, city group, jpmorgan, we'lls far go, they were trading at six, eight, and ten times the earnings. it's only going to get better. i think it will be a rough three, six, or nine months of trading. >> are you throwing darts, or will there be companies left behind, eric? >> no, i think we're seeing improving earnings at several banks. their earnings, we see them

going up from previous estimates. >> who would you avoid though? >> i think i would be careful with valuation. i think some of the valuations, such as sun trust, m and t, have gotten a little high, and we prefer some of the lower valuations. jp morgan is pretty reasonably priced. we like hunting in bank shares. >> all right, so you like those banks, what about you? who do you think is strongest right now. we heard eric's picks, can you give us your list in terms of leadership in the banking sector? >> i think the banks that are the strongest, the ones that made the best come backs, are also the most ek pensive. we're focused on the larger riskier banks, we like jp, citi,

and wells. i think of the big banks we're still concerned about bank of america and the mortgage risk there. as eric points out, a will the of issue wills be behind the banks soon, there is a lot of private label risk that has not been shorted out at b of a. >> and jim, you think you will be able to buy these banks at better prices? >> yeah, i think we're caution, they're cheap, but as news as come out of europe, the banks have been volatile. i would not go all in right now. i might save dry powder for as the year goes on. we definitely think they're attractive to start buying. >> all right, guys, thanks touch for your insights, we appreciate and we'll see you soon. the final stretch of wall street here for the first half of the

year. dow stindustrials up 220 points. >> if you're taking a wait and see approach on this market, you're missing out on real opportunitie opportunities. we'll get her strategy coming up here. >> and how big of a threat is the fiscal cliff? alan greenspan will weigh in a minute. >> and now the dive dent, which stock is outperforming this year, chipotle mexican grill, dominos business?

just before the break as part of the dividend, we asked which stock is outperforming this year. chipotle next kal grilmexican gs risen over 10% year to date. >> okay, if you're just joining us, we had a very good rally today, the broader markets doing well, but the technology sector doing even better. we have more on that big rally. >> a stellar day for technology,

in fact here at the nasdaq we're looking at the index up better than 12% year to date. meantime we're watching large cap tech stocks today. let's lock at some, apple, google, ibm, intel, and dell in a 5% gain on the day. the top three is vertex vertex, illumina. they were questioning a new drug. >> thank you so much, jackie. we have a short rally, a positive outlook on europe. certainly whatever it is, it is very much a strong market today. the do you industrials up 220 points. as we take a look at the second half and look ahead, here is what guests have been saying about the rally all day today.

>> we should be focused on as you said were earnings, and every time the markets trade off because of this silliness in europe, we should buy, that's it. >> you should be preparing for the start side of the cycle. >> i think really the thing you ought to be looking at is the weakness in the emerging markets. >> the investors need to look at construction for a major driver going forward. they need to position themselves for consumer related companies and service industries like health care. >> let's get two more thoughts from our guests on what to do to prepare for the second half of trading today. folks, welcome. david. i have been thinking about you all day today. waiting. knowing you would be hoar, you and morgan stanley have been

right about the first half of this year. you were very defensive. you were concerned about a slow down in growth and the market would go lower and it did all that. now this market seems to suggest that maybe europe is out of the way for awhile, what are you thinking right now? >> i great thing the teacher game into the classroom and imposed some order. that's what this two-day summit is. they recognized the banks are the key and they have to shore up the blanks. nothing has been soft totally, but the teacher is focussing on the banks. we remain defensive. utilities, some tech, health care, consumer staples, that's where we're foe kugs. >> you think earnings are a problem? >> our strategist, adam parker, believes that earnings next year in 2013 will be down 1.3%. as you know that's $98.70.

the consensus is for $118. this is not an english test that you studied at cal-state north ridge, this is a physics test. we're either right and they're wrong, or they're right and we're wrong. >> one thing that has been happening leah is this risk adversity. a lot of money in such now yielding trumts, will we start seeing money moving whether it's large institutions or corporates? >> i think we will continue to see this kin of market volatili volatility. i think invest torts get really caught up in this daily movement. and instead, most of us should

really be focussing longer term. >> what do you want to put to work then, why do you put your money? >> i think the real opportunity now is when everything moves together on the macro headlines, we need to look for the babies getting thrown out with the bath water. >> like? >> any place look for like large cap u.s. stocks, multinationals i like, and even say some of the european multinational lgs. we should focus less on where they are domicile. if it's in europe or the u.s., i don't think it matters. we need to improve our portfolio here. >> are you talking about multinationals quality make thes weather conditions poetures around the world like gra zil,

or or are you talking about domestic names? >> we're looking for the long-term and we can find value in any asset class. my view is there's real value in large cap u.s. stocks. but i am talking about multinationals and those with a diversified revenue base that isless susceptible to their own specific country's ups and downs. so if they're domicile in europe or the u.s. is less of a concern than mine. they may be a great value, and they're getting washed down with everything moving together based on the macro headlines. i think this is a time to clean up our portfolios, improve the quality, and find value, and not focus on all of the ups and downs, it's so easy to get caught up and the psychology

going on. that's not what's best for all of us. >> you pounded the table on technology, are you tweaking anything as we go into the second half of the year? >> you want to own the pepsi, the coke, the dollar sold off, it's a good thing for the earnings they bring back here. mcdonalds, colgate, apple, oracle, microsoft, they have tremendous base sis earnings abroad. astrazenic yields 7% right now. 7% is a very nice generous yield, and we think they can keep it. we just want to say that maria is up high, and her being up there brought all of us up there. >> we have all been elevated. >> thanks david, have a great

weekend, everybody. >> david i will see you on the cou countdown coming up. heading towards the close with the market having 12 minutes left. >> up next, we'll look at history. why that suggest the bulls could be in for a rough ride down the stretch. we'll take a look back and ahead.

welcome back, the bulls have been beaten up in the second quarter, a tough quarter then, the s&p down. >> we could be in for a rough ride because we will all wonder what happens the next sixth months of the year. i had our staff build this chart. this compares the s&p 500 the

first sixth months of this year compared to the first six months of last year. we had a very tough spring, and then it started to pick up in the beginning of the summer time. so now you see okay, what will happen in the next section months. watch this, here is the s&p chart for all of last year. the red part is the second half of the year. and maria, we all republican the tremendous volatility in the summer time has washington was debating the debt ceiling and what a tough market it was. when all was said and done for 2011, we finished unchanged for the year. so you wonder what will happen this year. >> yeah, that's interesting. it really was the debt ceiling. here we are facing it one year

later, no agreement on tax cuts yet. i know you think we will see an agreement after the election. i can't believe they will wait that long, but they did that last summer. >> while you were traveling on wednesday we had the chairman of the committee here to talk ab the fiscal cliff and policy, and i asked him if he thought they would do it before or after the election, and he felt they would be doing it after the election. just saying. >> we'll see. just saying. >> okay, we'll take a short break, then the closing countdown after this break with the market at highs as we speak. >> and the industry is buzzing about the google tablet. marie will will sit down with eric schmidt coming up at the top of the hour.

do you agree? welcome back, we have a little under five minutes left. i want to look back as we

complete now the first half of 2012, and we look at some of the key vsectors of investments, first, the straw stirring the drink for years these days. it's the euro. we had a good gain into the springtime. may was a disaster, they went away. and today alone the best day for the euro against the dollar in eight months. the same thing for the dow, the question is do we continue higher from here. technicians will tell you we have a reverse head and shoulders and that could push it higher, yields are down sharply in this period of time. they were buying treasuries and the year on the tenure is down

10%. what a day for crude oil. what a horrible period here, and for the month we're still down 1.8% even with this gain today. we were in the $76 range just the other day. and gold getting slammed for the period, but now back today, a gain of 3.1%, or $48. almost, $1600. is this for real do you think? >> it feels like it's for real. there has been so much money on the sidelines, everybody is waiting for clarity, and today we got fiscal unification. that is a big positive. it will be hard to get the details ironed out, but the fact that they're working together is a positive move in my mind. that's why i think everything is rallying today.

>> it is, and we're due for bumps along the road, but i think this is a very big positive pm. >> back here we have more economic data to think about? >> tuesday you have the ism manufacturing index, thursday you have the nonmanufacturing index, thursday, we expect will cut rated by 25 basis points, and friday, bill, expect the jobs numbers to be again slow, 90,000. don't forget, 236th birthday of the united states of america is this coming benz. this is the greatest country in the world. there's a lot of problems, but we're working through them much faster than these other areas, and we're going to show them the way upward. >> you agree with that job growth number? >> yes, i think it's lowered expectation. we have a better chance of beating this. it may not be the end all be all that everything is okay, but at least it will start the new

trend back up. >> if we were, things would get bett better, but would they? >> housing has been better. >> gasoline has been down, it's at $3.38 a gallon. that's good. as you mentioned, the consumer spending and income have been very anemic, and that does worry us. >> we will start talking about earnings starting next week. >> absolutely, it will be an interesting next quarter. >> do you think expectations are too high? >> i think they're a little too high, but if we get a boost like today, they may not be too far off. >> thank you, have a great weekend. >> thank you. that is how we're going to close out here, and i was just going to say the close orders, the bias is to the upside,