we? >> always fun having you along. >> thanks. it's a pleasure to be here. we hope maria is feeling better. >> that does it for the "closing bell." thank you so much for watching. >> "fast money" starts right now. see you tomorrow. investors got what they want. rate cuts around the world. but instead of gorging on stocks -- >> 65 dogs. >> they choeked. a positive balance in futures. a positive bid to the oil picture. that dissipated as, you know, the ecb news came in and people realized that maybe them cutting is a bad thing. maybe things are, in fact, that bad. >> what's going on here? perversely some strong data. >> adp reporting that the private sector jobs will go up by 176,000. that's far above what the estimate was for adp. >> maybe bernanke takes the

mustard away. pete never asked permission to take a bite. and filling orders at the nyse. it's an all-american edition of "fast money." live from the nasdaq markets in new york's times square, i'm melissa lee. seagate dropping. you see the steep decline in the afterhours. it's also taking shares down with it. wdc is also trending lowerer in the after hours session. what do you make of this news? >> i think when you look at seagate right here, you're going to get a pull back. seagate's had a decent year so far. 200-day moving average. there's your point of reference. talking about where gross margins are going to be at the end of the year, they're still talking about 30% gross margin growth here. so on the pull back, i think you let the stocks stabilize over

the next couple of days. it potentially is an excellent point of entry. >> one of the reasons they cited behind the reduced guidance is behind an isolated supplier quality issue that affected one of the enterprise product lines. perhaps that's one of the reasons why it's not being taken down as much as seagate. at the same time, the ceo says base on the macroeconomic environment, they're approaching the quarter conservatively. what are the ramifications for the rest of the sector? >> everybody is going to have their chain reaction. i'm looking at seagate right now. on the sell off, i would like to start adding to something. i'm not in there right now. i talked about other night. you look at the evaluations, trade is extremely cheap. you look at what they're going to be earning in 2013. you look at what they're doing as far as a company, what the ceos had to say. yes, there's going to be margin compression. i still look at this company that's making a huge earnings relative to the price of the stock right now. it's a great opportunity to look into seagate, especially near $22. >> if you look at this chart,

it's a stock that's actually -- it suffered. it fell down somewhere in the low 20s a month ago. it had been building up. this news, i think, is going to knock it down around the 23 handle. i agree with pete. the story is intact if you believe they can get through this next line of news. >> why doesn't he agree with me also? i said the same thing. >> pete said it in a different fashion. he said it later than you said it. >> that's the way it is at the dinner table at my house. second guy who said it was right. >> you know, you're going to start to see a lot of this going on. we focused on the eurozone. the market ran on those fears dissipating. now you're focusing on individual stock names and stories. i think you're going to look forward to a little bit of a sell off here. i don't like the way they closed together. i think it was a lot of short covering going into tomorrow, and i would be fading this rally. >> let's move on. what's sure to move the markets tomorrow. that's, of course, the june jobs number. goldman sachs revising its

forecast upward from 75,000. let's take our position ahead of the report. good to see you in person, michelle. you keep your estimates intact. >> we are. yeah, we're sticking with 100,000, which is a little above consensus. consensus was at 90,000. i think there's upside risks to that number for a few reasons. adp this morning came in above expectations. the residual between adp and bls is kind of noisy, but still it does suggest some upside risk. claims fell. the ism surveys, i think, were really interesting. the headline was really weak. the employment numbers in the services and manufacturing holds in. so to me, that suggests the payroll number could be okay this month. but it likely is to slow over the coming months. >> where's the line in the sand for the federal reserve in terms of getting some more stimulus at the end of july, august 1st? >> well, i think a really weak

payroll report could be sufficient. >> you say really weak. what's the number? >> obviously zero. anything negative would be a big catalyst. i think below 50,000. if the unemployment rate ticks higher, the combination of that would certainly get the fed to be worried. particularly because the other data we've seen has been weak, including ism. so i think the fed is gearing up for more action. whether or not it happens as soon as august will very much depend on the payroll report. to me, i think it's more likely they act in september, which is when they have their next two-day meeting. >> michelle, what number stops this market? what number stops the unemployment rate from ticking higher? is it 150? is that what we're looking for to ride the wave? even your number is a negative set up. if we're looking at a true recovery, these numbers should be where? 3, 350 per month? if we're looking at something better than what we're seeing now. >> that would be great. >> that's what we need for real,

sustainable growth. are we talking 3% growth? does 150 really keep us at 8.2% unemployment? >> it does. that's the nature of this recovery and this business cycle. it's very different than what we see in the past. we're getting excited over high 100 print for payrolls, which historically is very low given the depth of this recession. if we get about 100 to 125,000 or so, that's considered the break even level just to keep up with population growth. what's happened is the participation rate has slowed a lot. it's fallen dramatically back to 1981 levels, which means you don't need to see quite as much job growth to keep the unemployment rate constant. >> sounds like what you're saying -- the guys want to pin you to a market call, and you're an economist. the fed is in play here. for traders on friday, there should be a tradeable outcome here because the fed really based upon their last statement has indicated just how important

the labor market is. do you agree with that? but below the surface of the labor market, is there any structurally that's changed in the last couple months? is there anything you think can give people reasonably -- all the seasonality we saw that put the labor numbers forward? is there something really good happening here below the surface? >> it's good you're not asking her for a market call. >> that's not what we do here on "fast money." >> i guess in terms of the market call, i think the risk is to the upside. i think expectations are set so low after some of the weak data we've seeng, so a lot of market participants are pencilling in and expecting very disappointing data consistently. if you get a stronger number, 150 and above, i think you will probably see market reaction. i think some people will price out that action in the coming meeting. but i still believe that fundamentally the economy is on a weak note. i think that we're going to prepare for a slow down through the rest of the year.

i think this could be the strong payroll print for the rest of the year. >> michelle, where on earth would we see any of the job creation if people are seeing anything that would be above 150,000? where? where do they expect to see that? it's not in the financial community. i'm just curious what sector possibly could give us a number that would surprise. >> yeah, well, that's always hard to pinpoint. it's a wide range of hiring that we're seeing, but there's no one sector that's really driving this recovery, unfortunately. so manufacturing has turned the quickest. but now you're starting to see some weakness. i would think manufacturing may be one of the weaker prints. construction is another interesting one. you talked about the housing market as an area of life. in the beginning of the year, january and february, you saw some pretty big construction job gains. that's reversed in the spring, which makes me think it's partly seasonal. i want to expect a lot of construction hiring. the other thing about construction is although you're starting to see more building and housing starts, hiring lags.

so you can use the labor you have to produce. you don't necessarily need to hire more yet. so it's been kind of the slow grind where businesses are hiring in anticipation of -- or in response to demand today rather than anticipation of demand tomorrow. it's been soft. >> all right. michelle, thanks for coming by. we appreciate it. on the floor, what are the bets on tomorrow? >> with goldman raising that number, you want to say that they -- their calls -- not to knock anybody, their calls haven't been the greatest, but i would say that somewhere around the 125, 140 is probably the call on the floor. as you just heard michelle say, even that number is terrible, so that just keeps us sort of holding water at this point. >> right. tim, how are you positioning e ahead of tomorrow? >> i think the market, to me, is one where if we have removed a

lot of the european default, and that's how you approach this market, i think it's a pullback to buy. basically, the market has addressed global growth issues in the short term. we've seen it priced generally into numbers and stocks until we get the earnings follow through. so to me, again, this is a weak number to buy. that's what we would be doing. >> i go back to what we said a couple weeks ago. the trend is your friend. i think many people are looking for the 2010, 2011 reflation playbook. i don't think you're going to get that. the u.s. economically, believe it or not, is the best house in a bad neighborhood. i know we overuse that terminology, but the dollar is going to continue to be strong. you want to look at technology. it's coming into that seasonal time where you want to buy it again. i think select financials in particular regional banks continue to work well. stick with what's working. >> within 45 minutes this morning, we had three of the world's biggest central banks

easing in some way. that didn't really support these markets. so i think as joe's saying, people don't think think is the same rally as we had in 2008. >> all right. next here, retailers reporting tepid sales for the month of june today. shoppers pulling back on spending because of concerns about the overall economy. total june sales rose at the smallest pace since august of 2009. of course, pockets of extreme weakness and pockets of extreme strength. pete, you're in a pocket of strength. >> we've been talking about these discounters for a long time. ever since you've seen some of that shift and some of that down shift into the discounters, and i include some soft dollar stores in there. look at the way dollar tree has continued to perform. i realize wal-mart's had a great run to the upside, but you look at some of the dollar stores that took that business away. wal-mart is taking it from somebody, but it's not the dollar stores. i look at tjx. i love that name. it continues to make higher highs. their june traffic was incredible. same store sales were off the charts. they raised q-2.

they raised full year. don't forget about raw stores as well. they blew the cover off. >> excellent call on tjx. it continues to perform and work well. i think domestically, we go back, we talked the other day. the sporting good thesis. that is working right now. all are working in this environment, places you want to be. i think when timmy talks about the people's bank of china lowering the benchmark rate, thick the potential there. it goes back to a chinese consumer that's emboldened. you want to look at a ralph lauren. >> really? so you wanted to go the opposite of the recent data points we've gotten from nike? >> look at response today in nike. nike traded incredibly well. look at yum! again, trading incredibly well. i think the effect of easing policy in china is not going to be on materials or on energy. it's going to be on the names that are selling consumer goods into china.

don't forget app alapple. >> would you agree with that, tim? is that really just a sign things are slower than we all thought they were? >> i think you can both be right. how quickly this will trickle down, i don't think the same sensitivity to a u.s. consumer where you cut rates and the reaction we've seen. although, around here we know rates can go nowhere. i think in china the concern is that, first of all, not cutting the triple rs or a reserve ratio requirement cut, which is i think what a lot of people expects, but more going towards the lending rate is a sign of desperation. we shall see. we have a lot of numbers coming in next week. the broad interpretation is they went for the more powerful signal. what that means is another story. i agree. i think things might require more lubrication, if i might, in china than they've been willing to give to this point. >> lubrication. do you disagree with joe when it comes to yum and nike? >> first of all, i think they're very interesting levels. where they've sold these two companies that have fantastic franchises in china was way over

done. what they said two and three weeks ago are things a lot of people are going to say and won't be punished as much. >> he just can't get the words out of his mouth that he doesn't disagree with me. >> it's back to the dinner table. >> we still have dessert. we kick it off with a popular year for ung. >> the contract traded $3.20 today. before that, august, september, and october get above $3. that's the trade. stay with it. >> tyson foods. >> i used to have a lot of people voinvolved in tyson. you got me started with that first clip coming into the show. it's really fallen off a lot of people's radar. at this point, i wouldn't be a buyer. >> the rallying gold teams have dissipated. if you look at it today, the

dollar tells you all you need to know about the gold. i think you can still play minors. the fed is in play. we all know what that means for gold. >> this name has been unbelievably reactive reen iive. you can see it on the charts. this name has been nothing but to the up side. you look at ung, the natural gas plays. this name is very much performing today. 85,000 contracts today, most of which were on the call side. i'd keep an eye on patriots. >> the vix was up 5%. >> it's interesting. you would expect the vix to have a small pop, but it was up at least twice as much as you would normally expect. most of that is because the concern in the market broadly is things with materials and financials. those are the broad correlations that are going to drive prices hi higher. >> a drop here for san diego.

talk about an explosive mistake. california spectators were shocked when a much anticipated fireworks display lasted only 15 seconds. a technical glitch caused them all to light off at once. the malfunction gave 500,000 onlookers a fourth of july they will never forget. >> same guy planned the facebook ipo. >> all right. it is the biggest vent on deck for your portfolio. find out how you should be trading. later, we went all the way to latin america to find out what lies behind this curtain. you must stay tuned to find out what it is. much more "fast" straight ahead. this is $100,000.

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share mark. >> it's been going on for weeks. john's been talking about. i've been talking about. look at weekly options themselves today. 400,000 contracts trade in the first 90 minutes of the day. on the weekly side, a huge portion. 250,000 of those focused on the weeklies. they expire tomorrow. they continue to go to the upside. those were so heavy early, the profits that people were making was absolutely immense in a day like today where the stock pops $10 before you can blink. if you look at where the buying started, those that were buying definitely had a sense that apple was going to continue this move to the upside. it did. got up to 614 after opening around $600. it did sell off later in the day, but a lot of profits made today in that name. >> is this using a weakness ahead of the back to school? >> absolutely. we started seeing a lot of this unusual activity as the stock was trading closer to 575 not too many days ago. people are definitely

positioning themselves for a lot of different reasons. >> all right. moving on to the next trade. netflix popping more than 13% today after the ceo shared positive news on his facebook pa page. netflix's monthly viewing exceeded 1 billion hours for the first time in june. is netflix poised to rebound more in july based on what the ceo is saying on his facebook page? i thought that was kind of interesting. an interesting way of disclosure to shareholders. >> this is the new world we live in. it's either twitter, facebook. when you look at netflix, there's huge shortage in the name. there's guys who love to short this name. i would be weary of this. >> pete. >> there's another one just like apple. very early in the day, the july weekly options expire again tomorrow were trading for pennies. you're talking about like 60 cents.

by the end of the day, they're skyrocketing, trading well over $3. a lot of activity in netflix. they extended later in the day. despite the move you saw today, there are expectations that tomorrow is when they expire, they're going to be more upside. >> basically, their online audience exceeds all that of cable and tv. >> 80 million hours per subscriber. >> and people watch one thing on their cable network, even though it would be netflix. that does indicate the power of their brand. it leaves you in places where you wonder some of the structural issues that face this company in terms of the cost of their content, et cetera. that and a very heavy short base as we've seen the squeezy nature of a lot of these names. it doesn't take a lot to get the market moving, again, on a day when a lot of people are sitting at the beach. >> mike, you also noticed the heavy activity in netflix. where do you see it holding based on that activity? >> it's interesting. he did highlight, of course, there was a lot of activity in the weeklies.

if you're skeptical, that's a good way to make upside bets. some of those calls quadrupled today. in september, the 77.5 calls, somebody was along those things, about 1,000 of them. they use the proceeds to buy twice as many. clearly, there's at least one institutional player who thinks this might not just be a short-term pop and is actually still willing to press bullish bets out through the end of the summer. >> a lot of the analysts in the last couple days of june actually raised the recommendation on netflix. i know tony wibble went from a cell to a neutral. i think the timing of it is interesting because, again, netflix had similar phenomenon at the beginning of the year. again, we're doing it now at the beginning of a quarter. it is a lot of short interest being unwound. but i do think it is a little bit of institutional money flow, somewhat similar to what you've seen with apple over the last

couple days. >> all right. more options action tomorrow and every friday, 5:00 eastern on cnbc. hungry for winning stocks? aren't you always? our next guest is telling you which names to anymore up on as grain prices continue to surge. more "fast" straight ahead. matters. pioneers in outsourcing us jobs supports tax breaks overseas. insourcing. industry and favors bring jobs home. it matters. this message.

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earnings season kicks off on monday. we're showing you how you can make some fast money ahead of the reports. let's bring earnings into focus, get a health check on companies next week. mark, you say that strength is going to come to technology and retail stocks. what is that based on, that prediction? >> it's based on our power gauge rating, which is a 20-factor model. it distills a lot of things we talk about here, earnings estimate revisions as well as short interest data. it's based on a model that gives you a quake read on the stock. highly predictive and very useful in earnings season. sort of like a gps for investors and traders. >> multiple analysts have looked at enterprise hardware. they've taken down estimates. seagate, ibm. those names, do you believe the estimates have been lowered

enough where we could now beat to the upside? >> seagate is a very interesting stock at this point because everybody's beating it up. jpmorgan and barkley's both down graded it. you have david einhorn buying. they prereported with maybe a 4% revenue shortfall. i think the stock is beaten down to the point where this may be an interesting name for a trader ahead of the earnings. >> is it often you go against what the model is predicting? you said the model looked bullish for seagate. >> no, i believe in the model. the model has been great for finding potential land mines. >> but this is a land mine, no? >> the reaction is not that bad considering the shortfall. this stock kaufb down 10 or 15%. it's down a point and a half. i don't think that's a bad reaction. normally, i'm not a bottom fisher. if the model is bullish, typically the stock is moving up, like a t.j. maxx.

>> i know you're positive on ebay. you certainly cited the fact this stock has done well. what is it in the ebay model that has you excited in a world where people have a lot of competition? >> it's paypal. 110 million paying subscribers. compare it to facebook with 900 million nonpaying subscribers. they reported a very positive earnings surprise in april. the stock spiked up 10%. i doubt that that's going to happen again. but this stock looks good. it's pulled back about two or three points here. i think it's a buy. the model is bullish. >> how about harley davidson? i tend to be bullish on this name. i'm looking at this company. you're bearish on this. >> the model is bearish. the analysts have been lowering their estimates. the stocks have been trading poorly. i try not to second guess the model, melissa, you're right. i think you've got to get out of some of these names ahead of the

earnings because you could get earnings shortfalls and the stock opens down 10, 15% and you don't know where to go. >> what are the names you would recommend getting out of ahead of earnings season? >> right now, wynn reports. they did report a positive earnings surprise in april, but the stock is tratding poorly. the power gauge is bearish. they report on the 16th, i believe. this is a name i would definitely get out of. >> just to wrap up the seagate conversation, based on the warning after the bell, would you say that perhaps using the weakness is a buying opportunity could be a good move? >> i think any time you're trading with david einhorn, you're probably in a good spot. doesn't always work. i think this is a buy here ahead of the earnings, which are actually going to come out in about a week and a half. >> all right, mark. great to see you. thanks for your time. joe, what advice would you follow? >> i think the interesting stock that was just brought up would be wynn. some of the revenue in june was much lighter than anticipated.

that is the first time that we have seen that. estimates for gambling revenue was supposed to be up 50%. it was 12%. >> what was a miracle for a year and a half is really pulling in. i think everyone thought this was going to go on forever. we need to recognize the high-end chinese economy is still in very good shape. again, the key really is a broader consumer movement into that part of the world on the gambling side. i don't think it's sustainable at 40% a year. >> all right. moving on to our next trade. corn futures on the rise, up another 3% today. prices have shot up more than 20% in the past month. how is the recent surge in grains impacting food stocks? scott is an analyst at jeffries. he joins us on the fast line with his biggest winners and losers. you see a much broader trend going on in this basin, which is driven by demographics, the boomers getting older. >> we do. the boomers are getting older. the millennials are taking the baton from them. they're going to be a force to

be reckoned with, not just in the food vertical, but across retail if they mature. >> with that said then, does it matter if costs are going up? it sounds like this is a group that will pay up for healthier foods, pay up for premium brands. >> you know, they do, but getting back to some of the specific stocks like the general mills, what we've seen here is both the cyclical and secular things working against them. on the cyclical side, you know, people are popie i hoping for s relief costs. that doesn't look like it's going to happen at this stage. that's not a good thing for those types of companies. >> scott, it's tim. the thing about food inflation, it's very good for food retailers. it's not great for the producers. which part of this trade in the short to medium term, because a spike in corn prices on draught is really more of the cyclicality of the weather cycle as opposed to some of the demographics you're talking about with the baby boomers. >> yeah, so i mean, we've been pretty bearish on the food

manufacturers. we continue to be that way. something like a general mills and kelloggs. we would go into a lance, for instance, that's doing well. really, with the economy, these companies are trading at fairly high valuations. there's no reason to get involved in the manufacturers. if you wanted to take an inflation flyer and we can get into a long discussion whether inflation is good for the retailers or bad, i would stick with the retailers. one of the names that we've been positive on is safeway. it's been a very controversial stock, but again, if you want to take a flyer on inflation, that would be the one we would recommend. >> all right, scott. great to speak with you. where would you go for food? >> for me, i would go to kroeger. we've had conversations with guests before. i would go a different way. i'd go with organic. kroeger seems to get how to plan out their stores with organic. >> are those fighting words for you when you hear another guy talking organic?

>> there's nothing that whole foods has not really worked well phenomenally in terms of their earnings. i think you're going to see 100 dollar print there. they retain pricing power in this environment. >> i think we did that segment about passion of joe being organic two or three years ago. it lives on. >> like at the family dinner table, you do not let go of a good joke. >> no way. >> you've got to have something to live for. >> very exciting. the second half is just getting started. we're continuing to give you the playbook to make it a winning one. stick around to find out your best short bets for the rest of the year. more "fast" straight ahead. [ male announcer ] introducing a powerful weapon in your fight against bugs. ortho home defense max. with a new continuous spray wand. and a fast acting formula. so you can kill bugs inside, and keep bugs out. guaranteed. ortho home defense max. i'm making my money do more. ♪

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welcome back to welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. what are the best ways to make money in real estate these days? >> despite upturn in housing, the apartment market is still hot. fuelling that sector with higher returns. as investors want to buy more, the lack of supply is pushing up prices for the best properties. take a look at vacancies in q-2.

down 20 basis points to 4.7%. we haven't seen that since 2001. 25,000 new apartment units occupied. analysts say the slight slow down is more about a lack of supply than demand falling off. landlords watch that 5% vacancy level as a major benchmark because we've only dipped below that level three times in the past 31 years. of course, that's when your rent starts to spike. it's estimated the market is short about 2.5 million units for all the demand. that's pushing up price returns. alexander goldbar likes post properties because it invests in the sun belt, where properties are not quite as high as the coast. the dynamic is, rents are up. if you're a regular investor who wants to get in now and buy a property, the flip side is the property prices are way up as

well because, of course, there's so little supply and so much demand. on the bright side, financing as we all know is cheap these days, and there's a lot more supply coming on over the next couple years. so we got to watch that when we're looking at rate returns. always supply and demand. melis melissa. >> in terms of that supply coming on to the market, is that enough to drive rent down? >> analysts said no. a couple years ago when developers started to see this new renter nation as we talk about, they immediately started building the buildings. we're going to see over 250,000 new units coming on in 2013 alone. the demand is still there despite the fact housing affordability is still high, people are still looking to rent. >> all right, diana. thank you so much. joe, you like some of these apartment reads still. >> avalon bay. i don't think the upside is

there as well. ticker symbol pps in the southeast, in the southwest, and really geared toward apartment units that would be categorized more towards the high end. again, they retain the pricing power. >> okay. next trade here, average short interest coming into the third quarter rising to 7%. how can you gain big returns with bearish bets for the remainder of the year? brad, always nice to see you. >> thank you. >> you brought with you a few names. jcom is one of them. that's one we don't often talk about. it's got a very high short interest already. it was the target of an analytics report i think at end of last year, which gave is an "f" for earnings quality. >> that's what we look for. jcom only beat from a lower tax rate last quarter. we just feel as though the margins are going to continue to get compressed.

they have been doing a small add-on acquisitions that they've been hiding their core growth that's been deteriorating. it's one that we actually just put on. it's right under the 200-day moving average. we have a 70 rsi, which was a very over bought reading. >> are technicals very important in addition to your fundamental analysis when identifying new shorts? >> we first have a list of about 100 names chosen that we don't like. then we overlay technicals on top. >> so based on fundamentals you don't like this list and narrow it down to a short list. >> correct. >> okay. also on your short list is fossil. if they're familiar with the stock, they'll remember back in may the shares were down by about 40% because it warned -- you know, it had a terrible warning. cut its full year guidance. you still see more shorts to come. you see more downside? >> so we shorted fossil. i don't have a chart in front of me, but we shorted fossil about a year ago. it blew up. we covered it in the mid '80s.

it ran back up to 130. we were looking at the fundamentals. inventory levels have continued to move against the company. they've been accumulating. the sales have been slowing. we just continue to think that they've had terrible -- are going to have terrible margin issues. and if you technically look at the stock, it has refused to bounce at all a during this entire little two-week bounce we've had, which is pathetic. >> and you stopped shopping there. >> that's got to be it. >> i went to swatch. >> they're plastic. you can just wipe them off. >> and i am sloppy with my watches. >> a lot of analysts have been targeting fossil as well because there's been a lot of promotional activity. they targeted european weakness. do you look at the broader space and say we've gotten more and more data points about european weakness and this will fuel more pressure? >> of course. no question about it. gap was out with comments today. nike, the other day. we still feel as though there's

a lot more downside there and that's part of it. >> just quickly, rockwell collins col, what don't you like about this? >> col has been -- they have earnings growth, but it's only due to a lower tax rate and share buy backs. government is always going to be cutting back, which is going to be painful. their unbilled receivables have spiked about 9%, which is another thing that we do not like to see when looking at companies. >> all right. brad, good to see you. thanks for bringing your short list, so to speak, with you. >> thank you. >> the only actively managed short etf out there these days. when you hear the comments about fossil, it's amazing that even with a 40% decline on one day there's still more downside to come. >> i mean, 50% of their business is u.s. they've got another 13% in china. it's not like, you know, their entire story is a european one. he makes a great point. if you look at a stock that goes down in that kind of move, it trapss around here only up 5%

off those lows. it appears there's fundamentally something deeper wrong. europe is not enough to keep the stock down 40%. >> mike, in terms of the options activity on any of these, do you see it correspondent to these short managers position? >> you do. in all of these things, there was a lot more options activity. what we're seeing is a lot of disinterest. overall, that open interest has declined precipitously. investors are no longer interested. >> all right. there's one trade this year that's had investors around the global in good spirits. serving up details on what it is and how you can get in on it. it's a segment you don't want to miss. stay tuned. .

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let's solve this. the spirits market has been consistent despite volatile markets. a goldman sachs report says whiskey is above par. it forecasted well above rifles tequila and gin. what is driving the surge? emerging markets which make up 40% of premium spirit sales. we sent our ambassador out to hit the town and dig into this whiskey frenzy. >> reporter: whisky sales are soaring across the globe.

the man who runs the brandy library in new york says it's a sensation you should be investing in. >> if you work on wall street, you've got to know your whiskey. if you're working in a law firm, if you're a doctor, you love your whiskey. you have to brush up on it. >> reporter: among the best sellers at his establishment, the glen farklish 40 at $116 a shot. he says expensive spirits like it are popular in asia and that the market over there is really thriving. >> when the u.s. used to be the number one market for great whiskeys coming from everywhere. now, well, singapore, hong kong, shanghai, tokyo. they're taking it. >> reporter: back in the u.s., the bourbon industry is booming. the kentucky whis key segment of this business was up over the

last 12 months. there are hundreds of bottles of bourbon, including rare and limited editions which have been popping up left and right. >> if you feel adventurous and want to go back to america, an amazing kentucky straight bourbon will be this heaven hill based parker's heritage cognac barrel finish. this is something you would have not seen just even four, five years ago. >> reporter: and what about more familiar u.s. brands like maker's mark? its parent company beam global has seen shares rise 80% in three years and maker's mark sales were up 21% in just the month of april. it's not just marketing that these names are banking on. as emerging markets grow, you can bet whiskey sales will continue their surge. the bric countries along with mexico, poland, and chile, are among the top ten growth markets for imported spirits. the u.s. is up there too, fueled by a better economy and new product launches. and the industry expects the

trend to continue. >> you're looking a little bill murray. >> i was feeling it. cnbc makes us do very difficult things in the field. this was one of the tougher tasks. >> what's the trade here? >> the bottom line here is spirits, high end especially, are very aspirational lifestyle thing that emerging market consumers are going for. the chinese will give a $300 bottle of scotch as a sign of respect because, one, they have the money, two, they believe it's what you do. so the brazilians are the biggest whiskey drinkers in the world. in fact, that is only continuing. the constellation brands, the brown foremans have been great trades. you have to be careful because these stocks get a little overheated. people get a little drunk in the story, if i may. one of the things i've noticed -- i own a bar downtown. the kids coming in are drinking a lot of whiskey. maker's mark is no longer your

father's whiskey. doers is something that -- that's right, joe. listen up here, buddy. you, too, can be cool if you, in fact, drink some maker's mark. that's what the cool kids drink. i was drinking a budweiser. these kids were coming in and drinking scotch. >> kids shouldn't be drinking. >> come on, people. this is a family show. we know that. anyone who is old enough to drink is coming in. >> you're so shameless. >> geez. >> do you stand at the door and check ids yourself? >> i do everything. i clean the dishes too. look, stx, brown foreman, these are your ways to get expo sure. great companies. in just three minutes, we will reveal what's behind this curtain. if you're someone who's betting on brazil, you'll want to be sure to stay tuned because the trade of the day is right up after this break. . [ male announcer ] summer is here. and so too is the summer event. now get an incredible offer on the powerful, efficient c250 sport sedan

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to welcome back welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. it's now the moment you've been waiting for, at least the moment after tim's whiskey package. it's anytitime to find out what behind this curtain. tim, what is it? >> the bri zil yazilians are co a lot of things. if you want to get in on the

next phase of the economic cycle in brazil, you want to buy a name that gives you exposure to the consumer both in the retail sector and in the electronics. in cbd you have exposure to effectively the largest retailer chain, electronics and food retailer all in one company. what's been holding this name back is a shareholder battle that's been going on between france's casino and one of the founding shareholders. this has finally lifted. casino will be controlling this stock. it's a great name to known the next wave of brazil. again, it's 16 times earnings. not ridiculously cheap. you're never buying good, emerging market retailers at bargain basement prices. you're definitely buying this as a five-year low in terms of its pe. it's probably the largest market cap, so you're buying a very big company that's been battle tested in terms of their model. this is a very experienced management team. what's been holding this stock back, again, is a shareholder battle that's finally lifted.

>> it you hear the music we were playing? it was a "rocky" theme. >> i was so focused. >> we played the whole theme song while you were talking. we didn't loop it. >> you had the slow motion. jumping up and down. >> all right. before we go, pete, why don't you tell us about the special event options monster is holding. >> weavtrade like a monster eve july 26th and 27th in chicago. should be a great time for people to learn about the options as well as get themselves into the world of options and have a better understanding of why it's growing so fast. >> all right. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] introducing a powerful weapon

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time for time for the final trade. mike. >> we don't like defense. our analyst does not like lockheed. sell lmt. >> ambassador. >> today's trade of the day, cbd. >> joe. >> lpx, raised the stop 1065. >> pete. >> keep an eye on thes