signs," everybody. "closing bell" is next. i can feel my arteries clogging up looking at that burger. >> dig in. >> welcome to "closing bell." investors are not really in a buying mood to start the week. earnings season about to kick off. >> here we go again. i'm bill griffeth. alcoa is set to report after the bell today, we will talk exclusively with company ceo klaus kleinfeld. that comes up next hour here. meantime, investors, as we said, not feeling optimistic as history is made in france. the government there for the first time selling bonds at a negative interest rate. essentially means investors will get back less than they are putting in and they are willing to do that. they are paying for the privilege of preserving their

cash. >> sign of the times really. >> and it happened in germany as well. more on that in a moment. here is where we are standing today. moment the dow down 61 points. just off the lows of the session. 12,7120. nasdaq is down 13 points. less than half a percent at 2923. s&p 500 index is down about half a percent at 1348. we have breaking news already here at the top of the hour. here is mary thompson at the news desk. what do you have? >> hey there, bill. federal reserve just releasing the report on may's consumer credit and consumer credit expanding on its fastest annualized rate so far this year. expanding at 8% annualized rate. revolving credit which is essentially credit cards at 11.25%. nonrevolving credit essentially things like student loans and auto loans. also very healthy increase there. increasing at a rate of 6.5% on an annualized basis in may. bill, back to you. >> mary, thank you very much. it is not ugly but still a lackluster start to the week so

far. courtney reagan has more on what has been driving today's sell-off so far. >> hi, bill. sorry, i'm over here at the real-timex change if we can catch up here. equities are lower for a third straight session. kind of decelerating after that european close. hitting session lows around noon. but rebounding ever since -- not really enough to push us into the green important the s&p 500 if we can take a look at that time heat map. you see we are considerably more negative than we are positive. and it is really a negative sentiment stew of sorts, which would -- what is pulling us down. lingering concerns of europe. mixed jobs day hangover added to caution ahead of the official earnings season kickoff after the bell today. that's where we are getting all this red. it is risk-off trading. nearly all major sectors are lower. materials in the energy are trailing most of -- if i move out of the way, you can see thooefr here on the far corner and move down almost a percent here. health care, though, holding on to some gains of less than an hour left to trade.

wti crude oil prices gain being 2% at one point as the strike in norway could show production important the world's fifth largest oil exporter. energy equities selling off on global growth concerns. we don't have them behind me but trust me, they are. health care getting a boost today as the nation's second largest insurer wellpoint acquires medicaid coverage amaregroup. cough -- coventry health and aetna. >> as you heard investors are getting desperate in europe to try and, you know, prey serve some of the capital and just make sure they manage to survive in this rather difficult situation of the debt crisis. anyway, for -- of course, we are going to find out more with -- we have a team on standby. we have -- >> analytics josh brown is with us. he says money can be made. he has -- ten reasons, i wish we

had time for all ten. you feel that the money can be made at this point. and why you are bullish on stocks at this time. lee munson says it is time to stay diversified. brian shactman and rick santelli. one of the reasons you are bullish on stocks now? >> i think the big reason probably is that -- sentiment. all of this stuff with europe and -- bond prices and no one is saying anything you haven't already heard a million times this month so far. so i -- i think what it comes down to is there are stocks working and -- looking at my screen. when i look at the things that we are watching, there are a lot of stocks very casually rolling off to new year highs and in some cases decade highs. it is a -- >> lee, what -- you are relatively bullish on this market as well. why? >> well, i mean, listen. back at in late may, bill, i told you i was all in and ready to buy stock. horrible may. last day of the quarter, friday.

and you -- what's going to make it go up. i said very clearly that we had so much bad headline news. you are asking me did -- doesn't the headline in europe matter? headlines couldn't be worse. right now, they are bad but people are less concerned. selling a little bit of your stock. we made a great call at the end of may. summer is probably going to be good. guys, june was the best june since 1999. i think it should be time to take chips off the table and ring the bell and go by other stuff. high yields and investment bonds. >> i think you make an excellent point, lee. we get so bogged down on some of the headlines that come out on a daily basis about europe and other things. we forget that the s&p is up still 7% or more year to date was a good. do you think that because there is so much pessimistic sentiment out there, if we get new kind of upside surprise, whether it comes from earnings season, europe or elsewhere, we could see quite a knee jerk reaction

to the upside of the markets? >> well, absolutely. i was hoping that was going to be what friday was going to happen when we got all this bad news from that bad jobs report. where people say what will happen, dow jones, half a trillion dollars of money printing. you know what, there's bad news coming out there. france is doing real socialist stuff with the tax policy. i would saw let's wait for it a little bit more bad news and then i say load it up again. don't be too early. being early is being raw. >> i guess we hope the bad news won't be the earnings but will wait to see on that parade starts at the close. >> let's talk about that. piling on what lee and -- mandy had to say. i mean, go the other way. the u.s. has slow growth. europe has no growth. one thing a lot of traders are focusing on is the dollar. dollar was up more % and up 2% in third quarter. we have analysts price line did going to get affected by 24 cents in their earnings we are seeing a lot of that.

mandy pointed to one. lot of people down there be don have a good reason. would possibilities to buy. >> but -- >> qe3 and talking about this earlier, then there's upsides purchase prices. very few people that think estimates are down enough and both of those scenarios are trades. if you want to invest, that's a whole different ball game and different discussion but those are short-term trades. >> brian, strong dollar. yeah, yeah, josh. >> carousel of the same nine headlines. who cares anymore? this is not news to anyone. my father can quote me. he sells -- it is irrelevant. getting opportunity to buy and blow out at the end of june. these are good opportunities. you need to use the headline news in europe to trade. >> all i'm saying is that we already know all this stuff. tell me something i don't know. bottom line is you have very, very, very low participation. wall street hates stocks.

main street hates stocks. and when you look you a round, where do you want to be? you want to be plowing into bonds at a lower than inflation interest rate? probably not. i'm not -- >> talking of bonds, how low are we going to go? how low are we going to go for yields? >> i would never have thought that we would get to this level. >> great. rick santelli? >> well, you no i, right now, you know, in 151 yield and ten-year, half a dozen basis points away from the historic low, bond, ten basis points away. five-year note, though, right now it is sitting right on its historic low yield for june 1. 61 is, 62 basis points. i con that end it is -- our guests pointed out that if you know the end of the world is coming, you go out and finance a brand-new ferrari. with us who cares? i think the stock market in the u.s. is the beneficiary of some of that bad news in europe. it is also the treasury market that's benefiting.

i don't think under 1% is out of the realm of possibility. we are handicapping it on the floor. at some point when this drought of capital flows quits coming to the only oasis on the planet, i fully suspect that looks what looks good now, when everybody else looks bad, is going to have a major reversal. >> before you go, rick, let me throw red meat your way. how much of the markets responding at all? calling for the extension of selectively so on the bush tax cuts. >> i will tell you my feeling is very counterintuitive. the way we dealt with the tax extensions, tax credits. very little influence in the economic data. what's the point? we need to overhaul tax policy to get the benefits we have all associated with lower taxes. >> do we immediate to doing? in the meantime to alleviate the effects of the fiscal cliff

before they get to what -- i mean, everybody is talking about comprehensive tax reform for next year sometime, of course. in the meantime, what do they need to do? >> i don't really see the fiscal cliff the way everybody else does. i think this election will decide the answer to your question. and i think the markets are unsure. capitalism committed. i think everybody is on the same page. >> talk a lot more about tax reform in just a second. in the meantime, thank you to all of you. thank you very much. there are about 50 minutes to go before the closing bell. we are still sitting in the red. nasdaq down by ten points. >> we got earnings season. the fiscal cliff fight. we have a lot more for you on this very busy edition of "closing bell." >> $14 billion in unemployment benefits overpaid by the government last year. should uncle sam be asking anyone for more tax money if they are wasting the funds it already has? and countdown to earnings

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45 minutes we have 45 minutes to go in today's trading session. let's get a market check on the dow. earnings season and the global economy keeping stocks on wall street lower right now. dow apparently off by about 56 points. on call important first of three-day losing streak in over a month. energy and consumer discretion among the worst performers. health care bucking that downtrend followingwhelm point's acquisition of amerigroup for $4 million in cash. hefty premium. >> listen good not proposing anything radical here.

i just believe that anybody making over $250,000 a year should go back to the income tax rates we were paying under bill clinton. back when our economy created 23 million new jobs, biggest budget surplus in history, and plenty of millionaires to boot. >> you saw that live today earlier, the president making its case families earning more than $250,000 per year should pay more in taxes. this on the same day as it happen it is labor department admitted unemployment benefits were overpaid to the tune of $14 billion last year. >> okay. should the government be asking for more money from anyone when it already wastes just so much of the money that it already collects? dan mitchell says no. simon rosenberg, however, says recouping wasted funds while needed is just a drop in the larger bucket of the country's revenue needs and taxes still

must be raised. both of you, thank you so much for joining us today. simon, make your case, first of all. >> well, i think that, look, there are lee big drivers to the deficit. medicare, health care spending, and the -- defense budget and the reduction in tax rates that happened under george bush. that's what's created the big deficit. if anyone is serious about deficit reduction we have to tackle all three. democrats have shown willingness to do so and the republicans haven't which why i think the democrats are much more serious now about deficit reduction than the republican party is. >> but the point here about the waste of the fraud going on and in other words why go out and trying to collect more money when there's already so much that could be done in terms of packing up that fraud and waste. >> i know. i don't think there is that much that can be done. we are talking tens of billions of dollars. this program clearly should get fixed. it is unacceptable to have that much waste, fraud and abuse in any program. we are not tash talking about chump change. if you want to reduce the deficit this kind of stuff that there isn't enough money there to make a big difference. >> dan mitchell, you have the

other side. >> when obama said that he wants to go back to the tax rates we had under bill clinton, i will make him a deal. i will agree to that if he's lingo back to the spending levels we had under bill clinton because if we did that, we would have a budget surplus today. the reason we are in trouble is because government has doubled in size during the bush/obama years. both were big spenders and i guarantee you one thing that example of waste and fraud you just cited is just the tip of the iceberg. but our chances of getting any fiscal reform in d.c. will vanish like a water on a boiling hot day the moment you put higher revenues on the table. it is like putting blood in the water with hungry sharks around. >> simon, wouldn't it be more prudent to try to -- tax base rather than lefying more taxes? >> no. i mean, i think that what we saw -- i just want to be clear that what i don't agree with is the basic argument lower taxes creates more economic activity and more growth.

i mean, i know that it is said on cnbc tall time that's the case. our own experience of the united states over the last 20 years proves that. bill clinton raised taxes and wealthy people and we saw the biggest economic boom in american history. george bush cut taxes and we saw economic ruin for the country. i think we have to be careful not to wait tax reductions and tax rates too heavily in their impact on the overall economy. it is clearly important and clearly matters and it is not the only factor what creates growth and long term prosperity for the country. >> i actually -- i actually agree with that. fiscal policies only 20% of what drives the nation's economy. and what i like about bill clinton is that government spending fell as gdp and got deregulation, nafta, more free trade. bill clinton was a lot more free market than either bush or obama which is why i wasn't joking when i said i would go back to clinton's tax rates if we got rid of all of the obama/bush spend regulation. we would be better off as a

country. if we are just talking about taxes and isolation of course taxes matter. it is why singapore and hong kong grow faster than the u.s. and it is why the u.s. grow faster than france. i don't understand why obama wants to make us more like europe. >> i'm curious, how would you fix the fiscal cliff or you would? would you do anything about that right now? >> well, i -- i agree with what the president said today. i just want to be clear i think that -- there are three things that have to get done if we are going to reduce the deficit. there are a lot of things that could get done but three things that have to get done. they are so big and such big drivers of the deficit. pentagon spending, medicare has to get reformed. we have to raise revenue. i think if you are serious about -- democrats, to be clear, democrats proposed cutting, spending the pentagon, barack obama cut medicare, republicans ran tens of millions of dollars worth of ads, attacking the democrats. >> this is a lot like the debate -- lot like the debate going on in europe now where you

go with you austerity measures to rein in the deficits that a lot of the countries face now or do you go for growth strategies to try to revive their chances of paying off their deficit. right now the fiscal cliff would be that austerity mesh sxur question is does it come at the wrong i'm when the economy is on its back now? >> i think it would not be the best thing if you want growth in the next 18 months. i hope that the political system allows us to pursue a different path than the fiscal cliff. >> extend the bush tax cuts as they exist now? >> because i think the president p said today that he doesn't think it is the appropriate step to take for the economy at this moment and i agree with him. >> all right. gentlemen, we are not going to solve it here and congress may not either. but we will hope. thank you for joining us today. by the way, as the president push tows hike tax owes families he considers wealthy, we want to know what you think. are the couples making more than $250,000 rich? should they pay the higher

taxes? give us your thoughts on that. we want your honest upon that. we will air your responses. wheat us. we will get the responses coming up 40 minutes to go before the closing bell rings. dow is down by 62 points. so we are going to wacht all the way into the close. >> health care stocks have been flying high on the heels of that wellpointe deal to buy amerigroup. will it hit a brick ceiling? >> speaking of reality we are going to give thank you lowup on an earnings season which some predict might get a little too real for investors. we are going to explain that and also have alcoa's ceo here immediately after the aluminum giant makes its announcement.

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have come to us to help build their own legacies. stocks may be languishing this monday but commodities are seeing some gains on this first trading day of the week. let's get out to sharon epperson. she is at the nynex with more

details. >> currency moves, perhaps monetary easing. there's fundamental factors helping many commodities this monday as well. we are waiting to see whether there will be a full shutdown in production there in norway due to ongoing labor disputes. we have natural gas prices that are rallying after friday's sell-off. warmer temperatures, warmer than normal expected for the middle part of the month. of course, corn and soybeans, stellar gains we have seen in those commodities, still the dry weather really hurting those crops and that is impacting what we are seeing there. overall, crb index up 2% today. commodities had a nice showing. back to you. >> they have. all right, sharon. thank you very much. in talking numbers, we are focusing on the health care sector. particularly on this deal of wellpoint buying amerigroup for almost $4 billion. roughly a -- 43%, $5 billion, about a 43% premium on friday's closing numbers. health care sector itself has

been the lead sector to the upside on otherwise down day today. does this deal make sense? should you be buying health care? joining us on that is cart other the technical chief market technician with oppenheimer. stephen weiss. what do you think, does this deal make sense to you? >> i think it does. i think it makes absolute sense. and let's put a perspective. this just didn't happen when the supreme court approved obamacare. they have been -- companies have a -- supposedly talking for months. health care was legislated in about two years ago. so when a market becomes destabilized like this, good companies look for opportunities to improve their lot and prove the outcome and this is a great acquisition for them and it is a creative start next year. >> very good. however, what do the charts say about wellpoint specifically? >> actually the stock is up. that's unusual. but the real message here is the stock acts poorly, owed-time

technicality expression goes. stock has been trading down the last five, six, seven weeks and stock market has been trading up. so poor that it broken a well-defined trend, two-year chart. that's never a good circumstance. to put the stock in context to its root, now, take a look at all managed care stocks. s&p, industry group. aetna, cigna. here you have that industry group relative to all health care in the s&p. the sector compared to the industry, see relative underperformance. actually to speak on -- about health care as a sector. the sector is quite inning. take a look at the clart going back to the 1977 crash. well defined tops, top in 2000, topping 2007. stock market is nowhere near the past tops, s&p, part of the stock market, health care sector, is in -- position to exceed its past to break out to make all-time highs.

this is the sector. that group, managed care, not so much. >> i got it. >> steve, quickly, would you buy health care? is there a subset in that group you would like or not? >> no. i agree with carter. technical term. sector at wellpoint, in particular, acts like crap until today. here's why i like it. it is not dependent upon the economic cycle. we can forget europe, china. focus on domestic. we are spending has to occur and that's in health care and particularly in managed care with multiples are eight times in these big cap names. i would buy. >> it okay. there you go. stephen, carter good to see you. thank you for joining us. >> we are still looking at red here. moving in a narrow point range in term of the dow. down by 51 points. new week. alcoa in a few minutes, its ceo will be right here, right after the numbers come out.

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dramatic music for the second-quarter earnings season about to kick into high gear and has many investors concerned because after friday's jobs number it was clear it won't be the economy that helps this market. if earnings disappoint, you guess you can say look out below. s&p capital i.q. is now saying wall street analysts aren't expecting a 1% decline from s&p 500 companies. >> what's interest being that is that decline would mark the first drop after a pretty much unbroken string of growth since the third quarter of 2009 to be exact. who are the wirns going to be? who are the losers going to be? let's bring in nick of key brain and chris of riverfront investment group. good to have you bev both on the show. i think it is kind of good the

earnings season is starting because it would be really great to refocus away from europe, refocus away from an economy that seems to be sputtering along. the question is are earnings going to kick us to the upside or to the downside in terms of the markets? >> well, one good thing for the second quarter is the numbers have been drastically lowered over the past several weeks and months for the second quarter. as you said, capital i.q.s predicting a loss of 1%. earnings growth for the year. we are looking to consensus more we see 3% as the consensus for growth. significantly lower. and we have already had early reports in. 25 companies in the s&p are on the clock for the second-quarter earnings. these are companies with may quarter ends. and so diverse group of companies from fedex or best buy and their earnings collectively have been positive 9%. that's good thing. >> got your report early. usually better than expected and have something to crow about. chris, you are concerned about this quarter as well, aren't

you? >> why. for first time in a long time, you feel like u.s. earnings -- this quarter aren't going to be the positive catalyst for global markets they have been in the past. and -- while i still think that, you know, s&p is on track to do, you know, $100 plus in earnings this year, i think the story may be more about what the guidance and outlook that company managements give. early indications tech is a sector i look at closely to understand the global cycle. i haven't liked what i have seen in the cyclical end of tech and early reporters. it makes me nervous. >> chris, what do you think will be the main thing that they blame? i mean, will it be for the europeans slowdown? sit going to be the asian slowdown? is it going to be currency head winds? or at home, political or tech uncertainty? what do you think will be the key thing companies blame in terms of guiding? >> i think -- i personally think it will be a mixture of all of those things. probably predominantly being europe. i know with some of the high profile guides we have seen over the last week, some of the

hardest manufacturers they cited europe as being of particular concern. i really think it is going to be any company whose earnings tend to spike and dive with the global -- global gdp. i think they will have a tough time. especially because i think the management teams are the companies a bit spooked by what is going on in europe. not just that the -- leading economic indicators but also the small but real potential out there that something goes horribly wrong in the negotiations between the eeu. >> nick, i mean, we have alcoa coming up shortly. of course, they are one of the classic companies, all about supply and demand. supply has been growing. chinese, aluminum producers, are still overproducing. and demand has been coming down. prices have been going lower for their product. any expectation -- now that i set up that scenario, what are you expecting from a company like alcoa and others of their ilk? >> because of the declining growth across the world, metal prices have gone down.

90 days ago it was expecting alcoa to report 12 cents. now expecting six cents. that has been a reflection of a lot of materials and energy companies so -- lowered expectations have been the key. chris hit on splg that i think is key, though. it is not so much whether alcoa and others beat or raise -- beat estimates. it is what they do to their forward estimates. the first early reporters that reported the may quarter, there has been 25 of them, 72% of them had to lower third quarter estimates. which are still too high in the fourth quarter. numbers are even higher. >> thank you. we will know how things proceed at the top of the hour. thanks for joining us today. >> 24 minutes to go before the closing bell. dow is down by 46 points. creeping up very, very -- it is -- it is off what it was less than ten minutes ago. it is not great. very narrow range. it is not as bad as it was. >> marketses have had -- made some moves in the final minutes to the close.

>> after the bell we are going to talk to alcoa's ceo, klaus kleinfeld, in a cnbc exclusive. right after his company kicks off earnings season in just a few minutes. the dividend -- which company stock is this year's outperformer? facebook? linkedin or monster worldwide? the dividend pays off after the break. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense.

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thejust before just before the break as part of the dividend we asked -- which company stock is this year's outperformer? facebook? linkedin? monster worldwide? now the payoff. lin linkedin which has shot up more than 60% year to date. in the tech world you may have noticed that the tablet wars are really heating up.

>> apple's upcoming tablet will make up to 20% of total ipad sales in the december quarter. he also said that the smaller ipad will start $299. heating up with amazon and barnes & & noble which both off tablets around the similar price point. quick take of -- social media stocks. circulating facebook may launch a job posting site that could compete with linkedin. looking at the dismal jobs support. facebook thinking could be a lucrative opportunity for the firm. >> thank you very much for that. >> 20 minutes left. let's get you a quick market check on the mass dakota. composite on pace for the worst two session losing streak in 2 1/2 weeks. don't cry too much. down nine points now. just off the lows of the session. down as many as 18 at the low of the day. meanwhile, volatility index up

as markets fret about corporate earnings and global economy. again, it is not that much of a move. less than 5%, less than april point. we are at 1793. last time it was in 20 territory, that's the yellow flag territory, was on june 25. let's talk about today's market action. chr 1350. which is precisely where we are today. i guess his work is done here now. >> is that good news or bad news? if it is bearish predicting lower. depends how you look at it. chris joins us with quincy. great to have you both with us. chris, round ground hog day, basically end up the year where we are now. >> it is -- generally the same pattern over the last three years and started the year off with bang. once liquidity floods the system, markets risk assets tends to go up. '09, '10, '11 and this year. long-term refinancing

operations, all the way through april. we hit close to 1422. now we are back to somewhere around 1350. >> is it still a way to make money, natural index itself will be where it is? >> great question. broader market flat the rest of the year. but higher highs, potentially back down to the 280 average. before we closed the year at 1350. tremendous amount of opportunities in stocks and bonds and in commodities and across the board. >> trading pat earn this year eerily similar to last year's. we know last year we finished unchanged for the year. are you expecting the same thing? >> i think you are going to see the market moving up and down. very tight range with markets in the fixed income spectrum and over in terms of equities. inner is areas, you are going to wind up doing very well. is it treasuries or equities? that's the big question. >> what's your answer on that? >> i have -- very strong hunch. this is only a hunch. once we get through the summer,

we could actually see depending on the outcome of the election before that -- we may be able to see equities move higher. let's pray that's the case because we don't want to see treasuries moving lower. >> depends on who you are. trader, you can be nimble. moving in and out of positions. if you are a retail investor, it is frustrating, right? it is sort of a buy strategy. >> what we are telling clients when we have been all along is to be allocated truly across the board. even when the market and volatility moves up dramatically, correlations get very, very tight, the fact of the matter is that you are going to see cash still do well. you will see treasuries still hold on. treasuries remain ahead. at some point that will end. we hope we get our clients out before that. >> when do you think that will be? just real quick. >> i think that just as soon as you start to see the materials move up, you start to see industrial metals move up, that's an indication global

growth is starting to come back. >> three things to watch as well. in addition to what quincesy said. u.s. consumer related companies should do well through this. lower gasoline, lower energy prices overall, and even though it is hard on get a mortgage lower mortgage rates, it is -- in and of itself should allow the consumer to feel healthier as we balance the year out without the job growth we all expected. >> and the housing related stocks. three of the top ten industry groups are outperforming first half of this year. that should provide a little bit of tail wind even with the fiscal cliff come. >> what about qe3? possibility -- stakes were raised on friday after the employment report. is that a certainty? i mean, if there is such a thing as certainty anymore, anywhere. >> i think that actually if the -- numbers in payroll continue to weaken, but they have to come out with something big, something strong and probably it will be in the mortgage market. because even at the margin, that's where the markets

function, out of the margin, if you can get more people refinancing, i know it is hard, if you could get more people buying, that has a great effect on the overall economy. >> could you think the minutes wednesday will give us a clue whether or not it will be qe3? >> probably not. >> we have to leave it there. >> i will see you on the countdown. more for you. >> thank you so much. >> thank you so much. >> let's get out to jackie dean deand deangelis. >> stock getting hammered today, halted down 35% before that. now it is trading down about 68%. there are published reports that it could file for bankruptcy as soon as today. we are going to be waiting for reports on that. >> jackie, thank you very much. heading towards the close, market dash we are trying to come back here a little bit. down 41 points on the dow. >> they call him dr. doom. nuri tweeting the perfect storm he predicted for the global economy earlier this year is coming to fruition as we speak.

we are going to tell you what he says happens next. >> after the close get ready. alcoa takes the lid off the earnings and we will speak to the company's ceo, klaus kleinfeld. we will talk to him before he talks to analysts. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want

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dr. doom teaches at nyu. he -- he makes his stock and trade, warn being armageddon coming. he was right about the financial crisis of 2008 and he is at it again. tweeting today saying that the 2013 perfect storm scenario i wrote on months ago is unfolding. eurozone crisis, u.s. growth rate stalling, and china's hard landing, and em stall, mideast time bomb. emerging markets. time bomb situation with iran

still to be unfolding here. he's right on all those. >> he. >> looking at the markets, let the markets tell me what their expectation is. market knows all. none of us -- individually knows exactly what will happen. collectively as the market we know. you look at the yields on the trashries and they are near record lows. which would suggesting that the -- rush to safe havens. the stock market especially here in the united states tells a very different story. >> it does. my thing is -- i respect, you know, him very much. he is a bear. with the -- except for a very few cases where he's actually changed sides, he's generally a bear. you predict the end of the world, almost permanent basis. >> you will be right eventually. >> you will be right eventually. then you can like wave the flag and say i was right, i predicted this. what's more, i think, more clever, is to be able to predict the exact timing. if you are always going to be saying these bad things are going to happen, eventually they will. >> you know how it works.

>> i know exactly how that works. nonetheless that's what he tweeted out and what he is predict. >> slight upward bias as we get towards the close. buying and selling balances. they are skewed to the upside. dow is coming off the low. major averages. down just 31 points right now. nasdaq is down 6. s&p down 2. so we will come back here with the closing countdown and look at this big rally we have seen lately in some of the grains and commodities. >> soybeans closing at a record high. meantime, after the bell, it is the earnings support that everyone has been waiting for all day. just minutes away from alcoa releasing the results for the kickoff of the earnings season. >> klaus kleinfeld will join news the interview you will see only here on cnbc. don't miss that. we will get house outlook for the rest of the year coming up. ♪

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mondays. includes today. we are going to be down about 30 points. on the close. so blue monday has been the -- story on wall street important the last six weeks here. morgan stanley's -- health care payer's index is having its best day in 3 1/2 years. much of that the result of wellpoint's acquisition of amerigroup and the health care sector has done the best among the s&p sector today. you are looking for places to make money, you say. try the grains. this is a chart of soybean, wheat and corn just this year. look at these gains this year. 28% on soybeans. they close at a record high today. we know about the heat and the -- dry conditions. some rain has been forecasted in the growing regions this week. not enough to make a difference. grains have done very well. the inflationary implications of this should push yields higher in the treasury markets, right? no. we don't live in that kind of world anymore. yields have been going lower when your records, again, ten-year yield, 1.51%.

expectation being we are going to get qe3 after the friday jobs report we had. even the price of oil doesn't push yields up in the treasury markets. up another 1.5%. lot of this is now the result of the labor problems they are having in norway. that's already had a big impact on the price of north sea crude in london. but now it is having an impact on new york crude as well. as for the stock market, of course, we poll the euro which has been weak here because they are still talking in europe sxant figure out how to solve the debt crisis. down 32 points off the lows of the day at 12,740. as important the sectors and best performers today, there is health care. the -- best performer, telecom has also been a stellar performer this year as well than the industrials consumer staples. risk off day. amerigroup numbers come out. that could set the tone for tomorrow. >> well, set part of the tone. we still have a lot of earnings

due out in the next three weeks. amerigroup is the can -- you know, the initial one. i don't think that -- >> leads the parade but not the grand marshal. >> you know, it has significance because their industry is very -- how will i say, every product around the world. it is a very pervasive thing. at some point -- i think they have been guiding earnings down the last four, five, you know, quarters. i'm not expecting any surprise. >> pricing is not -- don't have any pricing power in that industry now. >> very few industries do. if you can point to it let us know. i would say eventually that pressure in the markets over the next few weeks will be about the negative guidance for the third quarter. we know that and that's the time to actually look for your opportunities and names that you feel very good about it over the next three years. >> there are sectors you can point to you would like at this point? >> well, for the next few weeks, if you are into that, next few months, all about u.s. consumer

dominated u.s. only stories in the united states. but the large cap with the bundles of cash they have overseas, with the euro fixed coming over the next few years, not few weeks, areas that will give it the yield and give you some appreciation in the next three years. >> what about those that point to the -- i mean, we have tremendous value in this stock market right now. the fundamentals are -- you know, suggesting that you should be buying now. the headline risk is still what's keeping the prices low right now. >> it is -- that's media. i'm sorry. >> don't blame the media. >> no. it is everyone's talking down everything on this planet. you know what, you look at u.s. equities, look at the u.s. economy. it is still -- farce the world is going, u.s. economy is still pretty good. you know. i think that's where the money should go. >> know november question about it. u.s. economy here. better than everybody else. stock market actually here in terms of profits. big disconnect and not coming through. trillion going into bond funds. >> thank you,