target shares are high. not on their high, but close, they're up. clearly not everybody thinks the world will end. target shares are up. closing bell with two other really nice people is up next. >> welcome to the closing well, i'm in for maria bartiromo, and she will be back tomorrow, and i'm here with scott walker. >> yes, look out below, stocks loving steam in a big way. they rallied by 94 points early on, the blue chip index took a turn for the worse, caterpillar helping take the dow lower. look at the major averages right now hanging out at about the lows of the day. a loss of three quarters of one

percent. technology, you knew it would be a tough day on chip warnings today, that's a result of the nasdaq down by more than 1%. let's look at the s&p 500 at this hour and a 1% loss today as well. >> the week is young, but so far not a great week so far. what is troulding is how economic fears here and of course abroad are weighing on sentiment. >> in today's closing exchange, have some guests with us. rick santelli and brian shactman are with us. it was as bad as people initially feared because of alcoa after the bell? >> of course you have wells

fargo and alcoa doesn't mean a lot to most of these guys. it's a commodity company that china has compromised in a lot of ways. we're all talking about kcummin right now, they also raised their dividend 25% and no one is talking about it. if you have a lot of cash, and there is a significant slow down, it does not matter. there's a lot of earnings warnings today that spooked a lot of people. >> yes, rick, it feels like people are waking up and saying this isn't potentially just a global slow down, this is potentially a global recession. so you're saying rotate out of the multinationals, places like europe, china, and those with currency head winds. >> yes, it's not rocket science.

in the last two weeks we saw a lot of clients selling long positions. they could recove quickly if they were short, but you're selling a lot of long equities, they're throwing the towel in for a couple months. >> what do you rotate into? >> we always like the home builders since the beginning of the year, and we still do. i have a feeling that will be a best performing sector of the year. >> rick santelli, you watched the euro sink, and it seems to be highly correlated to our economy. >> yes, what's going on in the euro currency reflects issues like the euro high court.

now, many are saying don't look for a decision from there in three months. we haved fed minutes tomorrow, and while we go into those, i'm looking at a five year note hoove hoovering at an all news yield close around 26 basis points, and i think there will be a lot of potential movements in equities. but the credit markets are looking at the fact that accommodation isn't working. >> is there anything in those minutes that could potentially change the direction of yields on the downward trajection tiort now? >> well if they think there's more sugar flying out and they rally, that could put more selling pressure on a well bid treasury market, but i don't think it's anything lasting based on the minutes tomorrow. >> i'm wonder ing if there is

conversation today about the trade data, they were weak, just wondering if that is factoring into what we're seeing in weakness today. >> yeah, it's two days in a row. you just wonder what the real weakness is, and rick just covered on europe and we have our own pre warnings in the u.s., why trade? and mandy talked about the mnds if there is indications that qe 3 is more or less likely. when people watch cnbc and they're not traders. but they don't toe all they're supposed to. >> a moment ago, we were talking about the fears in the market that seem to be growing that we could be seeing a global

recession. here in the united states we're already in a recession. how do you back that up, and if that is the case, how long and how bad will that be? >> speaking on the u.s., we do it looking at the specific indicators that define a business cycle recession. and if you take a close look at any of those measures, none of them should make you feel very good about the direction you're going. it looked to a peak last month, broad manufacturing and trade sales looks to have peaked in december. jobs growth in the last few months have been consistent. >> when i say peak, i'm talking levels of those things. when the levels are falling, that's a contraction. then you have to go on to jobs where you have growth, but it's

down shifted quite dramatically from earlier in the year. that was the one indicator that was hanging in there through the beginning of this year. that's come off and the pace of decline that you're seeing there in the growth rates are generally consistent with the early stage of recession, early on in a recession, and more importantly is personal income growth which has been readings that have been consistent with recession for more than a few months now. so a lot of people that turn to gdp and you have gdp at 1.9 or so for q 1, the first quarter of many, many recessions is positive gdp, and you have big revisions all all of these numbers coming in, which is why when a recession begins they don't typically ring a bell. >> okay, who are the biggest

winners and losers? courtney reagan as has a round up as this stage, looks like the bears are winning. >> right, the dow has had six straight turn around tuesdays. today we will break that streak. the dow jones has pulled back substantially from the session high up 94. intel is one of the weakest performers after buying a stake in amls holdingings. after applied materials cut it's fiscal outlook. that follows advanced micro devices also sighting weak demand. investors are not convinces, shared down 5% again today. and at the other send of the s&p 500 there are a number of

retailers posting gains today. smaller than what we saw in the session. after announcing a designer partnership for a limited collection of products, but then you have jc penney, they're under going a major transformation as you know and announcing the restructuring effort is complete today as it cuts another 350 jobs. it's down 5% for the day. >> courtney, thanks so much. we have about 50 minutes to go here on wall street before the bell ringing and closes the day. the do you down nearly triple digits. >> don't go away, there's a lot more ahead on this busy edition of "closing bell." the ceo of hormel joins us

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welcome welcome back, 45 minutes to go. time for a quick market stat check. right now the industrials down by 105 points trading at in much wider 200 plus point band today.

try yals taking the hardest hit. engine maker cummins cut it's sales forecast. >> we're live with today's trade. >> mandy, we're looking at an index near the lows of the session right now. that could be weakness commodities and the strength of the dollar. every trader i spoke to today talked about the impact that is likely having. they speculate on the modties market. we're looking at lower prices not only for crude oil, but also for silver and corn which thad been raging in this multimonth rally. traders say when you look at a major broker and major futures commission merchant that is forcing customers to liquidate position, this will have an impact on the base. they're seeing it in the market

even though what they're seeing has been in options today. back to you. >> sharon, thank you. speaking of volatility and commodities, corn prices had an effect on the bottom line for others. consumers are still watching their pennies. >> cereal in europe has slowed a little bit, we're seeing a little of the same consumer sentiment, they're pretty cautious. >> so can food companies pass on higher costs. let's ask jeffrey, the ceo of hormel foods, who is wringing the bell today.

so they say they're expecting 2% to 3% inflation. >> it's too early for us to tell. our companies are sensitive to the swings in the markets. they seem to be weather stressing, but we'll see where they turn around. >> what's the prime ingredient in spam? >> it's pork shoulder and ham, and it's still growing. >> and if your costs do rise, is that something you can pass on to consumers because let's face it, spam is considered a budget meat. >> the first thing we look to do is find other efficiency gains, but at some point if you're faced, we experienced price increases over the last year, and consumers are reacting

favorably. >> are you hedged at all? you must be concerned when you look at the chart of corn that has been so explosive of late. >> yes we are. we have a hedging program in place for the jennie-o turkey company, and we hedge between 25% and 30%. >> is spam as popular now as it was 70 years ago. >> yes, we have an add campaign features our new animated character, and it's growing faster outside of the u.s. so like korea, phil pans, and japan. >> why asia? >> they always enjoyed the great unique taste of spam and the convenience -- >> tremendously popular over in hawaii and in asia as well, how susceptible is the brand to what's taking place in china and

some of the other emerging markets? >> we're introducing it in china. we actually have two businesses is in china. we sell to the retail meet and u.s. customers. >> what exposure do you have in the market, and what kind of impact are you having from the slow down? >> we have next to no exposure in europe, we have a little business in england, but we left a business and we sold our steak company in spain. we pride ourselves in innovation, and we didn't feel they were connecting as well in europe as they were in asia. >> is it an off ridicule food, right? but you don't see it at all

having an impact on itself, it's a lovable thing. do you agree with that? >> we, people like the shirts and the hats, and some people really enjoy the product, we continue to grow and continue to offer new ways. adding it to mack and cheese or egg ngs t eggs in the morning. >> i was raised on ham by the way, i love all of the new ideas. >> we have new flavors out, and we have one for the food service trade that is in a log form. >> a log of indestructible meat. >> nice spam tie by the way. thanks for being here. >> all right, we do have 40 minutes to go before the bell

closes. we're still looking at a triple digit loss right on the number there. 100 points down for the dow. >> are we safe at home yet? new data telling an interesting story, and we have it next. >> plus, are union leaders spending their member's money wisely? a new study shows big bucks on politics but are they swaying any outcomes? tick around for the answer. [ male announcer ] don't have the hops for hoops with your buddies? lost your appetite for romance? and your mood is on its way down. you might not just be getting older. you might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. millions of men, forty-five or older, may have low t. so talk to your doctor about low t. hey, michael! [ male announcer ] and step out of the shadows. hi! how are you? [ male announcer ] learn more at isitlowt.com. [ la ] hey!

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a new report out shows housing prices are on the rise in some parts of the country. we have the details in today's realitity check with diana olick. >> the numbers are coming off of a realtively strong spring season, but it's unlike any other that we have known. that is foreclosures and short sales. take a look though, prices are up in the northeast and the south. pretty flat to lower in the midwest. the big gains are out west where the distressed markets are. the higher the volume in the foreclosures market, so many investors are competing for that limited supply. take phoenix where 23% are foe

closed homes. minneapolis where 35% are foe closures, and in columbus where it's up 14%. it's counter intuitive that some of the best selling markets saw the largest price crashes in the housing bust. it ranks san jose california, san francisco, las vegas, and phoenix the top sellers. and the top pbuyers markets. as banks try to modify loans, that's really going to mess with the numbers. the sales, the prices, the volumes, the supply, everything. this housing market is running on distress, and we have more

numbers on the web. >> thanks, by the way, behind me the new spam mascot, sir can-a-lot. with the home builders, the etf up nearly 25% today, let's check the charts and start talking numbers. we have richard ross, and on the fundamental side of things we have bob whitenhall. home builders had a pretty good run. >> we think they have further to go. often times the technicals turn before the fundamentals do. as you eluded to, up 24% here to date. the technicals back that up. there's really a lot to take about this chart. we see this nicely rising 200 day moving average, but we also

see a textbook triangle break out. that should get us around 292 level. when you get through 22 you should trade 25, we like that home builder etf. >> so on the fundamental side, bob, what are they telling us? >> we're bullish. we're looking for 700,000 new home starts this year verses 600,000 this year. the fundamentals are in tact, a lot of it is reflected in the share prices. >> mandy, thank you so much, a half hour to go today. we're down 113 points, nasdaq is weeker as well. the market really took a turn for the worse. caterpillar dragged down and the market seems to be worsening

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so much for the recent run of turn around tuesdays. stocks are sitting at session lows down 114 points for the dow. we're counting down to the closing bell here, and let's go

into the home stretch. the big reveal is an hour from now. our man is in that winning state. it is still a secret location, right, scott? we ruled out arkansas, you have to give us more clues. >> now you're not helping because you're in an empty corridor. >> and we have not ruled out arkansas, just to be clear here. we know there are four states that are not the stop state. we know there are four that are not the stop state because we revealed them today. so let's go through those so you have them. number five in north dakota, four is north carolina, three is virginia, and two is utah.

we have been giving you hinting all day long. grape expectations, legendary lights, you've got the power, you say pecahn, i say pecan. and in an hour we will reveal it to you, and you can go to top states .cnbc.com and see the top states. do you have a guess? >> i do, but i will not put scott on the spot. i know the leaders, the political leaders in whatever state it is, certainly the business leaders will get a lot of pride out of whoever is the winner, but added business too because people will want to go to who has the best state to do business in. >> this is the sixth year we

have done this, and they do brag about it, the bottom states ask what they can do better -- >> can i ask you, you can't reveal who it is, but are you surprised by the winner? >> wow, that's a -- you're kind of putting me on the spot. i am a little bit, yeah. based on what were we thinking going in, and a lot of the pressures, i will say that in the end when all was said and done it made sense, but i was a little surprised when the numbers first came out. thank you, scotty, we look forward to it. >> money makes the world go round, but does it win an election. >> everyone is convinced that campaign spending is massively important in electoral outcomes, and in you look at the data it's not. it's not ma money will help you

win the campaign because that's a fallacy. the guy that ends up winning raises more money because he is a more attractive candidate. >> if he is right, that's bad news for unions, the "wall street journal" today saying unions spent four times as much on lobbying as originally thought. our guests are on both sides of the issue. john, you first of all, why is it a waste of money? >> because what you're speaker said before, it's true this has been studies to death, and the level of spending doesn't matter so much. what matters is circumstances and that leads to the quality of candidates and quality of candidates leads to being able to raise money. unions have been following this strategy for a long time, maybe 15 or 20 years, and it has not stopped their decline, and they

lost influence in washington and it suggest that the policy is not working very well. >> i guess not to mention, it all depends on where they are spending money in the state. it is money spend from a union perspective in wisconsin, but a candidate that rang largely against unions ended up winning. >>. >> it depends where you spend the money, and how much, and how much is being spent on the other side. if you look at wisconsin, for example, you're talking about an extraordinary circumstance. it's very rare, can only once in our history, we have seen that take place. but what they can't do well to me sees like they can't raise money for the get out and vote

activities. i have seen a lot of candidates that cot compete because they don't have the money to continue. >> do we know if the union members vote with the relationship or where the leadership decided to give the donations. >> in 2010, almost 40% of the members voted for republican candidates. the spending is not reflected much. about 92% went to the democratic party. but really a substantial part of the members vote for republicans. john, apologies for jumping in, we're just about out of time. in the meantime we're counting down to the closing bell. we're down by 113 points. >> the markets had another volatile day, the final minutes may tell the final story.

>> after the bell, though, what happened to too big to fail? our next guest says we need more big banks. >> and the twitter question of the day, do you think wall street is more dishonest than other industries? tweet us your responses. [ male announcer ] this is the at&t network.

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thanks for staying with us. we have more headlines that would make any investor feel squeamish. >> this makes people shake their heads, the fbi is investigating, and canadian regulators say that the funds are all accounted for but not here in the united states. they're suing the parent company of pfg best for fraud and failing to separate customer accounts just like what we heard

with mf global. self regulatory authority froze the firm's assets after it was discovered that funds were missing. but that discovery was only have wasendorf attempted to commit suicide. the cftc complaint says that the false reporting dates date back to february 2010. that pfg failed to maintain segregated accounts. earlier this year, the mfa fined the firm $700,000. he and the firm were suited in connection with a ponzy scheme with some $30 million in trades. one former employee told me that lawsuit certainly raised flags

for him. the big question is how regulators missed this apparently with the firm already on their radar in the wake of the mf global melt down. >> thank you so much for the update there. back now to the selloff, tech is a sector laelding the markets lower. we have the movers. >> scott, blame it on the chips, the reason really isn't brain science. we know about the slow down in europe and growth in china easing, chip stocks are under pressure today. micron moving lower. lastly, kla-tencor is outperforming the pack. they've raising their quarterly dividend and the stock is trading lower. >> we have just over a quarter of an hour before we ring the closing bell.

let's get a quick check on the nasdaq. the first three-day losing streak. it's down be 1.3% on the heals of gloomy outlooks from applied materials and others. the cbde is up right now. it has not been above 20 from june 25. the u.s. markets are going lower, and there might be further downside to come. the upcoming negative earnings revisions don't seem to be included yet. >> should investors be ready for a selloff. good to have you here, mike, i'll begin with you. it seems like your outlook on the market was changed dramatically by the data of last week, the weak jobs report and

the ism number that was very weak. >> yes, we have been holding out, we thousand the economy could muscle through, but when you have the double whammy with the weak job report and the poor pmi numbers, we would take down our gdp numbers, and we upgraded our probably for recession. >> so you think the fed is about ready to pull the driger again, and if they do, does that mean the stoke is likely to go higher. >> i think there is psych logically a benefit to that, but i think most of the investors we're speaking to are pushing on a string. maybe a little help for the financial markets, doesn't help the economy. >> sounds like a glass half empty. yesterday we kicked off the earnings season with al koe ra,

and if the expectations are low ball enough, it makes it that much easier to be, right? so if we do get this earnings season, a number of companies want to beet their estimates, how much do you think the guidance -- >> i think at the very least, the guidance will need to be uncertain. very few companies can predict the outcome in europe. most are expecting profit margin expansion that is expected to cover -- as we go through the earnings season, expect that to be reduced. >> the bombs are starting to drop already, you add amd, applied materials, and negative

news from jc penney. >> yes,ings expectations following the first quarter have gone up. analyst were revising the numbers up, and since march we had a steady negative bit of news. >> what happened in the market is tied to consumer confidence, confidence in the economy. so if we take that straight, and we hear things about mf global, and the news today about this new one, do you think investors do not trust financial institutions? >> no, i think there is a deeper problem. it's very adaptable, it's built on a very robust consumer. they're doing their part but running out of steam. we're seeing a more rigid u.s. economy, businesses are backing off and what you see is

consumers backing off of that, and until you start seeing reduction in that fear. >> we set all time records in retail sales. and that benefit for earnings and corporate balance sheets, but that being said i think we have a problem because of the deep structural problems we're in right now. we have slightly less than 15 minutes to go before the closing bell rings. we're looking at a loss of 101 points. >> david einhorn says i don't think so. >> it's the best big growth company we have. it's the dominating brand in the area that it is. >> we're going to discuss apple's growth potential next. >> and a countdown to the big reveal. scott cohn will reveal the best

state for business. it will surprise you, and certainly us because it's being kept under wraps.

>> all right, stocks are lower here in the final minutes with tech in the laggards today. one big investor thinks there's plenty of upside left to apple down the road. listen to what david einhorn had to say. >> are you going to stay in it? >> i think the stock is very, very substantially undervalued. >> it will be a trillion dollar company? >> i would expect. i think it's the best big growth company we have. it is the dominating brand in what -- in the area that it is, and it trades at a multiple below the average and i think that's extraordinary. >> it's a stock, mandy, that's so well loved from the hedge fund community. >> it's more than a prospective.

he is talking getting up to one trillion, but he's not talking about being in it for a quarter, but for a long hall. >> on down days in the market, you will see larkts not hitting at hard. but people believe in the long term aspects. . the television coming maybe -- >> when you talk about the valuation, just look at the numbers, it's trading below the average for the s&p 500. they say the proof is in the numbers. let's talk broader markets. we're currently down by 89 points. we're certainly off the session lows. they were down about 115 to the downside. continuing over the past six tuesdays we have had a turn

around after bad mondays, but today is not going to be like that. >> alcoa wasn't has bad as some people expected yesterday after the bell. >> it had very low ball expectations. >> yes, but the ceo certainly seemed so say that the lum in a market was holding up getter than some people perhaps thought it was. the auto industry continues to do well, but earnings season didn't get off to the whiner that people thought it would. >> i know a lot of people think there are better global telling out there ann alcoa. copping up next, we're coming right back with the closing count down. >> after the bell, you will only see this on cnbc. our scott cohn has been combing

the country looking for the best state for business. ap test scores 138%.

welcome back to the floor of

the new york stock exchange. let's go to the charts to tell the story of this day. we have our eyes painted to europe and asia. a two year low next to the u.s. dollar. let's turn to china and look at the import data and the trade data. overnight, weak. after the number of expectations. there is the china fxi today, down 2%. those things weighing on the markets today. a shareholder the meeting today, the new ceo, you know what the stock has done. that stock is down another 5% today. the bad news from jc penney today, they're laying off 350 people today. investors seem to be wondering when the end of the stock decline will happen, because

it's stock that continues to go down, down another 6% today. if there is a stock that really sort of accelerated the selloff throughout the afternoon on wall street, you would have to point right here. they gave a warning, the stock down, and you could see the impact through many of the industrial names. throw up caterpillar for example. you will see a similar reaction. there it is, off the cliff there, and that helped bring the markets down as well. let's talk to a couple market participants here. you have this cummins warning that was alarming. the ones worried about growth, tech and industrials. >> yeah, and tech and europe, the slow down over there, but if you look at the trading, i mean you have the 1361, the s&p, that was resistant, came right back down to 1340. that was the hold, and we're

bouncing off the lows here. >> you have financial earnings right in front of us here. how important will that be to determine the next leg of the market? >> it will be somewhat important. the news has been negative, and we have not seen a lot of selloff. the financials report will do the same thing. you're going to hold off, but the penalty is enormous. >> you're still watching what's taking place in europe, we mention what euro was doing and it's having a profound effect. when it's down, our stock market is down. >> you tell me where the euro is, and i'll tell you where the dollar is. you always want that weak dollar at the moment to sell our merchandise over seas and a strong dollar. >> are you looking at stocking that are u.s. centric that have most of their focus here in the united states? >> the