money" tonight at 5:00. again, we'll continue to follow the markets. deutsche banc cutting the forecast by a point and "power lunch" begins right now. "halftime's" over. the second half of the trading day begins right now. it's a busy trading day. that sound you hear is the price of corn popping. up more than 20%. well over 20% in a month and we are going to show you exactly how bad this year's crop is in about 30 seconds. and then take you to the grocery store to show you how much exactly it is likely to cost you. now, if it's too expensive in the kitchen, wait until you see what's happening in your living room. yet again, there's a fight, 20 million people now have lost access to channels like mtv, comedy channel with a spat of directv and viacom. and jpmorgan in the news reportedly wanting to claw back

stocks earned by the key players from that massive trading loss. the london whale. should the precedent be expanded to anyone that messes up at work? i hope not. simon is in pursue and a guy that never messes up at work. >> if only that's true. good afternoon to you. we have a very big media fight as 20 million americans know directv is pulling access to viacom channels. that came through midnight last night. kayla is following the moguls of this year's big conference in sun valley, idaho. we cross now live to her. >> reporter: i like seeing that map. it shows how we're out in the middle of nowhere right now. up on a hill and chasing down the leaders of directv and viacom. earlier this morning, we heard from someone who said he won't negotiate in public. they had no problems seven years ago but at midnight 17 channels reaching 20 million viewers went

dark on directv and that is because they could not strike a renewed deal here. now, we're going to be speaking to directv ceo mike white here shortly at the conference and bring it to you shortly but the big question is, what does it mean to directv's bottom line? the deal proposing is an adding 30% or a billion dollars in extra costs to directv. but is it worth it to pay that much to get the relative earnings? taking a look at the analysts saying, they said viacom is better leveraged. eight channels in the top ten and not worried about the short-term impact. that's not what evercore thinks. they think this could take up to a year to resolve and if it's not reconciled in that time v viacom could see a $300 million hit to 2013 earnings and saying that viacom represents roughly

20% of dtv's viewership and not carrying via cocontent could be a serious misstep for directv. we'll have the comments as soon as we have them. tweet at cnbc with the hashtag ask mike white and tweet me and we'll try to bring the questions straight to him. back to you. >> thank you very much. record heat threatening to ruin crops in the yigts and then today official figures showing the situation may be even worse than we thought. it could hurt your investments, as well. and your pocket at the grocery store. jackie will report shortly on food problems but first the husk of the problem in the fields in rockford, illinois, with jane wells. >> reporter: corn prices turning negative in first time in a year and supposed to be the first year ever. this is supposed to be the field of dreams and then it stopped

tra raining. it's dry, dry, dry. we won't have the largest corn crop ever. third largest perhaps and why corn turned negative now. >> even i think now even a two-inch rain would not salvage this crop. >> reporter: it's the movement, the moment of judgment in the midwest and pollination begins. the time farmers need the rain the most. corn could go to $9 a bushel. it isn't doing that today and farmers and ranchers and food manufacturers are all supposed to be hedging locking in prices when corn at five bucks, right? well, some did. a lot didn't because they thought prices would go lower. >> why buy corn at $5 when jerry and his friends plant enough for 3.5 and make more money and in a drought situation we are forgiving because they'll implement this act of god thing and blame him on their

inadequacies and they didn't do us favors dragging this on. got farmers disgusting with futures and options and volume probably dropped about 40% of those wanting to do that. >> reporter: and we're not talking about the results of pfg best. simon, back to you. >> thank you very much. ti, pick it up from here. >> thank you very much. from the field to the frying pan. jackie reports live from a grocer in new york to show us how the crop prices are coming home to roost in the grocery aisles. >> reporter: there's good news and some bad news. bad news could be as jane said to see those prices going up for corn based on that usda report of today. good news is we haven't seen price increases here. corn products in stores that line the shelves, cereals sh

chips and corn syrup in soda. and what we're looking at here is price increases that could come in the next two or potentially three months. what could happen is this. if the manufacturers decide to increase prices, two weeks later, we can start to see them ticking up at the grocery store and that is really what we're watching for. now remember, consumers can switch some patterns as a result of this, as well. start to see them buy generics and the costs go up or different curts of meat and changing the shopping patterns and tart to cut out some of those extra items. for the most right now, analysts saying they're not searched of the stocks of general mills, krafts, kelloggs of the world but stocks to watch if mother nature doesn't comply. simon, to you. >> thank you very much. we want to foe if you have started to see an increase in the grocery bill. there's a lag, of course, for this to work through but go vote. the results later in the show,

ty. another day, another big treasury u.s. auction. rick santelli tracking the action. hi, rick. >> reporter: this is the most unreal auction i have seen and i've seen a lot of auctions. first of all, the grade. a plus plus plus plus plus plus. okay? now let's go through the mettics. wti trading around 151.5 yield. this auction of reopened 10s is 9-year 10 month auction. 1.459. it went right through like a hot knife through butter in terms of the market pricing in the wi. lower yield, higher price. the bid to cover, 3.61. i think the highest i have ever seen. 3.07 average. get these numbers. indirect bids were at 40.6% which is in itself good right around average but indirects, 14% 10-auction averages at 45.5.

i can't find a higher direct bid that means dealers only able to take 14% of this auction. you talk about invest to recalls stepping up and eating at the trough. it was like mr. ed was cloned a thousand times. spectacular demand at auction. now we need to think what it really means and see how the numbers and markets reacted since 1:00 eastern result was out. tyler, back the you. >> you have to figure what does it mean and is it good for us, right? >> reporter: exactly. you know, i talked about it at great length a couple of days ago. dealers stepped up with a belly full of treasuries. i can't think when good collateral is this sought after of a terrific reason behind it. we have to wait and see. >> let's go back now to food and food stocks. ed ponsi with all week. how do you play the possibility of higher food prices traceable back to the droughts in the midwest? >> i've got two interesting stocks for you today, tyler.

cf industries in the red hot fertilizer sector. this stock going higher and the forward pe is still only 8. that's very cheap and it's lower than competitors. in addition, s&p actually raised the rating on the stock very recently. i love cf industries. another interesting play is smithfields. the world's largest pork producer. the stock's hammered hard on the news of corn. down 10% in the week but now a big support level and now i think time to buy smithfield. two ways to play that. >> never met a piece of bacon i didn't like, ed. thanks very much. now bertha with a market flash. >> we are looking at mead johnson. yesterday the stock hit hard on a report out of chinese group that had said there was a banned substance in the enfomil formula. today they said there was a mistake and express deep regret for the error. the stock recovering a bit today

and certainly something that i guess will make parents a little more at ease. back to you. >> thank you very much. interesting note today that mortgage applications, the latest data of last week, coming in lower. diane olick is live in washington with that. >> reporter: it defies logic. reif is don't react. 3.79% on the 30-year fixed down from 3.86 last week week. that's thanks to crazy low bond yields but it does not spur mortgage refinancing. down week to week now just 77% of total applications. they have been falling sharply for four weeks and that june jump responsible to a new program that kicked off. temporary. negative equity and tight underwriting, credit scores today are killing the refi

market. simon? >> that said, diana, we should note that housing stocks continue to do very well year to date as perhaps investors there perceive the bottom of the market. lennar up 57%. toll 44 and dr horton 11% and maintaining the gains. >> thanks very much. richard matigan and joins us. of jpmorgan private bank. welcome. congratulations. >> thank you. >> a bigger job. >> indeed. >> uneasy wears the crown, right? >> yeah. >> let's talk about housing. diana pointing out that mortgage applications are down and begs the question, have low rates done everything they're likely to do for housing and more broadly for the economy? >> it's funny. it ties back in to rick's comment of the 10-year auction debate. some of the revisions we are seeing also down in growth more broadly and consistent theme so we have got a growth that isn't

stalling in the u.s. we think we'll see 1.5% to 2% growth in the quarter for u.s. markets. bonds reflective of that to a certain extent in the slower growth, lower for longer market environment but mortgages and surprised in the discussion people aren't separating the dynamic of what happened with the consumer and the private sector in c and i lending. with the -- >> commercial and industrial? >> yep. and lending in to commercial and industrial space turned and accelerating. private sector continues to lead and is responsibly strong. the unfair point of some of the quantifiers of mortgage lending is consumers are deleveraging. a large part is savings coming down. some consumption going up. i'm intereed to see the results of the price of food. going up. but the result is consumers focused on debt load. i asked the chief economist in the private bank as i came over this morning what that number really meant. he said the subtlety and why

wall street isn't talking about the refi is what is alive and well domestically is the cash market. cash market for housing is keeping a very consistent bid to it and house view is seeing a bottoming but not a v. >> sticking with the theme of easier money, lower interest rates, let's talk about the fomc minutes that come out at the top of the hour. what will you be watching for and do you think any kind of quantitative easing is in any sense likely now or between now and the end of the year? >> on the one side, we have the tug of war debate between bad news and policy response and the pushing on the string dilemma of the fed. i'd like to say i wish we didn't hear as much discussion in markets on this expectation of needing a qe3 and a twisting with come lat real mortgage backed bond. there's too much expectation of a fed we don't want to ask for. we'll see worse market environment before the fed

reacts. the market wants clarity with regard to extending the longer language. so the 2014 becoming a 2015 holding interest rates steady. getting discussion on twist 2 morphing in to a mortgage-backed security. >> the purchase of longer term securities. >> correct. and that's constructive. that's selling short term and how you get an auction in the 140s on a 10-year treasury so the two pieces. the third ends up being instigated of the ecb. the ecb last week cut back the deposit rate with regard to deposits with the ecb. the fed holding a 25-basis point deposit rate. those expectations are heightened. do i hope we hear any of them? honestly, no. >> not a good sign. >> yes. >> we'll be back in about 20 minutes to talk more about the markets and where the opportunities are. >> terrific. meantime, spain is increasing the basic sales tax and if you're feeling bad of

what you pay for sales tax, get a load of this. it's going up to 21%. the goal, shave off some of that massive budget deficit so will the rain in spain now fall mainly on the plain? or on the retailers? simon at the nyse and rick at the cme chomping at the topics to get in on this one. a lot of europe, maybe almost every country in europe, has a value added tax or sales tax. isn't it logical with debt being where it is they got to go where the money is and that would be to retail? >> the most important thing to say to you watching now in understanding this, sales taxes higher in europe. in the united kingdom, a 20% sales tax but in response for that, that funds free health care for everybody at the point of delivery. the tax looks high but everybody gets free health care funded by that sort of tax structure. that's the difference between america and europe.

>> so here in to an economy, rick, with 25% unemployment, 50% unemployment for youth, a tax hike. it is going to really strain the people there, isn't it? >> it's a dumb idea. it just underscores why europe is europe and why the u.s. used to be the u.s. but we seem to want to take the same european path. listen. spain is different than many of the other weaker country trifs. easy market reforms, you know, collect more income tax that nobody pays, major labor reforms, those aren't going to garner you the same fruit in spain. they have a real housing financing issue and many nonperforming loans but as we agree, if you don't differentiate the austerity of the private and public sector, the fair here, if you hit the private sector over the head with the same taxes as you do the public sector and you don't look at spending in lieu of the services you can't frprovide yo spiral us more out of control.

you need to let the money that has a possibility to reach a growth possibility in the private sector exist. so, fair isn't really fair and i think this strategy is hugely flawed although i think many guests we have had on in "squawk box" today would relish what europe is doing. >> all right. thanks very much. we going to bertha now for a market flash? we are. >> booz allen shares are spiking. looking at the possibility of refinancing $959 million of debt up to $1.75 billion. the upshot, spin off about a billion dollars in a special dividend for their investors and you can see the reaction there. >> thank you very much. next, it is like an episode of "law & order." dna of a chain used at an occupy wall street protest could be the key to solving a manhattan

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merger candidates with american airlines but the ceo of amr says any merger won't happen until they finish the bankruptcy process. thomas horton saying it is best that we first put our own house in order. simon, the bottom line here, amr is trying to assert control over any merger that happens in the future. they don't want the others to dictate what happens. simon, to you. >> phil, thank you very much. now a story grabbing head lines here in new york. the occupy wall street movement back in the headlines but for a very different and disturbing reason. it involves one protester and an unsolved murder. jonathan deantz broke the story. what is the latest, sir? >> the latest is dna of a 2004 murder of an aspiring actress here in new york city, that dna of the crime scene has been linked to evidence found at a vandalism scene in a new york city subway stop happening just in march that's linked to the occupy wall street movement.

she had been out for a daytime jog. fox's naked body found days later. the pink cd player nearby. we're told a man's dna of the 2004 murder scene is found on that cd player. and investigators say they've now made a dna match to this occupy wall street action at an east flatbush subway station. now police want to know if someone here last march was with fox when she was killed years ago. dna expert. >> could be a coincidence but the likelihood is high that the person who left that dna on the cd player is the killer of sarah fox. >> reporter: investigators say they are not going that far but they are now scrambling to try to find a name and a face that goes with the dna evidence found years after the murder. sources say the dna does not belong to this man, 47-year-old shineman. he's long been considered a suspect. he was convicted of a past

attack near the murder scene and he's made claims of knowing details about the killing only because he's a psychic. >> i am not the killer. people like me are not killers. >> reporter: police can't say if it's from the men caught on tape. investigators say they also need to consider possible innocent xlapgss like a homeless man found the cd player in the park and then years later did this on the subway. but this expert says the dna match could break the case. >> finding an item so close to the body, i think that is telling us a lot. it could be a way of sarah fox teling us catch my killer. >> one spokesman of the occupy movement whom we spoke with today say they deplore violence and hope whoever killed sarah fox is brought to justice. again, investigators tell us they're looking at this dna

match as a possible break in the case. back the you. >> thank you very much. later on, reported clawbacks of jpmorgan of the big trading loss there. if you mess up at work should this be the new standard operating procedure? analyze some of this on the list today, off the depot, staples, amc and duke energy. we'll look at all of them. before the break, five big movers led by apple, down $4.67 at 603. microsoft also a little bit lower. exxonmobil down a buck. mcdonald's down a buck. bank of america up. we take it on ours. this summer put your family in an exceptionally engineered mercedes-benz now for an exceptional price during the summer event. but hurry, this offer ends july 31st. mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003.

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but hurry before this opportunity...disappears. the mercedes-benz summer event ends july 31st. i'm bertha coombs. welcome back. airline stocks outperforming the market. deutsche banc upgrading allegiant. >> it's time to analyze this with ed ponsi. here's the quote from the note. we expect valuation to remain depressed until top line no m momentum meaningfully improves. shares of both down last three months. i love both of the stores, do awe gree with the call? >> i do although the timing

could have been better. the competition is fierce and amazon getting in the business. i do agree. just a little bit late. >> down 34% for office depot and nearly 20% for staples. moving on. ubs downgrading duke energy. this is in the news. to neutral. noting negotiations in north carolina and execution risk. i don't know whose they're talking about. maybe one of the ceos. three key pgn executives have since resigned. duke is expected to have major proceedings pending. duke taking a hit over the past week, down about 4%. what do you say? >> look. there's a lot of drama at duke right now but a lot of drama at walmart and look how that turned out. this is going to blow over. i would buy the stock here and disagree with the call. down hard and now the country's biggest utility company. i think it's a buy. >> we love disagreement, ed.

a positive saying we see the likely global sentiment of the dish litigation and the approach of the second anniversary of the spinoff as positive catalyst. the stock is up nearly 10% year to date. about amc? >> great call. because the growth is very strong. about 25% and the valuation is much lower than the growth rate. we call it a peg ratio. i like it a lot. they say they have mad men. breaking bad. the chrt's breaking good. >> agreement with one. qualified agreement with one and disagreement with duke energy. now down to simon. simon? let's talk about burberry. what does it say about the big picture? courtney reagen has it for us. >> the first quarter revenue did grow 11%. and worrisome to investors looking long. while the famous retailer is in

london, it is not necessarily the european debt crisis most concerning but the slowdown of china. the revenue growth fell in the second half of 2011. the asia-pacific region makes upmost revenue of percent for the british retailers and analysts and investors fear the results are just the beginning of the slowing high end for sales though the fiscal year forecast remains unchanged. the company is mindful of negative data but focuses on what it can control. no matter the performance of the macro economy. simon? >> thank you very much, court. let's catch up on bouillon gold prices closing now. sharon epperson has the action at the nymex. >> waiting for the minutes of the fmoc's june meeting at 2:00 p.m. and looking at prices right around 1,575. silver, price forecast lowered

for $31 from $34. we have seen silver down on the year about 3% or so. capital economics coming out with a call and talking about the precious metals, as well, saying even though we have seen platinum outperforming gold this year they expect a further price decline of platinum and palladium due to a lackluster industrial demand. they see gold and silver as safe havens and perhaps seeing a pickup in prices there, if we see a euro zone break-up. those are the commentaries out today on the precious metals. we are looking at prices right now that are really just waiting traders here for the 2:00 minute release and we'll be in the electronic trading at that time. back to you. >> thank you very much. groupon's stock taking a hit. shares moving lower. right now, year to date down 62%. down about almost 6% on the session so far at. >> caller: 7.84 apiece.

julia boorstin is live in l.a. with answers as to why the stock is moving down. hi, julia. >> reporter: well, tyler, for the first time since its ipo groupon sharts below $8. comp score of a report to its clients saying that traffic to groupon dropped 15% in june from the year earlier. the stock is now down about 60% since its november ipo. the company does face continued scrutiny of analysts media and investors. so why all of the scrutiny? in addition to concerns of the traffic, those numbers that comp score reported, there are low barriers to entry. there are a slew of competitors and questions of repeat business considering the fact that both customers and those small businesses that make those groupon deals are not always happy with the results of those

deals. tyler, over to you. >> thank you. later on if you mess up at work, should your employer claw back some of your salary? first take a look at this picture. it's duran wums signing the $98 million deal with the new jersey nets on his ipad. wow. officially a brooklyn net. $98 million. this is the first car that i've been totally in love with in every way, shape, and form. it's my dream vehicle. on a day to day basis, i am not using gas. my round trip is approximately 40 miles to work. head on home, stop at the grocery store, whatever else that i need to do -- still don't have to use gas. i'm never at the gas station unless i want some coffee. it's the best thing ever. as a matter of fact, i'm taking my savings

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this market could really move in 24 minutes getting the release of the federal open market committee's meeting. brian shactman with me here on the trade so far today. >> i'm not saying they're sitting on the hands but no doubt of action priced either way 2:00 p.m. eastern time. take a look at the sectors here. you see financials gaining a little bit of strength. technology losing it and focus on them for a second. interestingly, simon, i don't know if people talked about this enough. apple is down. hp and dell are down and there's basically a story that apple is dropping out of the rating system with environmental impact of computer use. take san francisco. it's said that it's going to suspend buying apple products until it figures out what to do

because they go by the rating system in terms of what they purchase. right? inroads of apple maybe there's a thought that hpq on a day of tech down and dell flat, maybe there's something to be had there in terms of business. in terms of financials, bank of america, jpmorgan near the top of the dow. tons of anticipation before friday's numbers of jpm. how do they offset the whale? how do they, simon? what do they do? release of loan loss reserves? what have they sold? >> it's an interesting day and whether jamie dimon takes a claw back. let's go back to ty. over to you. >> thank you. earlier this week dr. doom said the perfect storm scenario is unfolding with slowdowns in the u.s., europe and china. is that the right view? how do you invest in this environment? back with us now. richard matigan at the jpmorgan

private bank with $830 billion under management. welcome back. >> thank you. >> how does that comment strike you? >> good news with the consistency that it's rabina and apologies of dr. doom. i hope we're through the worst of the crisis development we have seen in europe. i will admit over the last four weeks, six weeks through the second round elections in greece and watching unfolding around bank recapitalization of spain we have had strong concerns with policy unraveling but taking the other side to balance the discussion. i actually think you are seeing forward momentum in europe around policy. unfortunately, it's still going to continue to be this two step forward and one step back. i guess the critical issue to me again back to the bond auction today, markets are telling you one of two things. either very concerned with risk assets and yield and a shelter from the storm or they're telling you we have benign

neglect with regard to growth and inflation. the question we should ask is why have markets done so well in the space of the last four to six weeks. >> why was june as good as it was? >> i think investors well positioned and didn't get the knee jerk reaction of oh lord, dr. doom and god knows who else is coming. and markets sat back. the pain trade in the trade is up because if the market pulls up up much higher, you will watch people chasing it. >> are you on balance in the portfolios below your normal risk levels or above them? >> so we spend a lot of time talking about a consent of risk utilization, the risk budgeting issue, and keeping it very simple to think of so 0% aloe case that would be the normal standard. we've been running at about 90% and we have used a lot of cash in the portfolio to compliment

credit risk and underweight and more defensive in the equity parts of the portfolios. we still waiver the u.s. and see opportunity. it's going to take longer to get paid for the earnings but we will in emerging markets. >> what would it take for you to go back to a sort of equilibrium state or more risk on? what would need to change? >> great question on that is discipline. so focus on the horizon. we have talked about that, too. unfortunately for those that do it, i think this is a miserable environment for day traders because you have the volatility which is great news. you don't have the liquidity and very tough to execute consistently in capturing alpha. we have taken the opposite tact and very high conviction views where we have them. things like credit and disciplined in buying. we bought in may and took some money out and put it back in the markets. if we continue to get pullbacks we'll continue to do that. that's a horizon of 12 to 18 months we'll pay for the earnings. >> market higher, the same or lower than it is today?

>> you'll hate me for saying this. it's a fool's game. we tend to talk, i talk a lot on 12-month horizons. we think u.s. markets give us the equivalent of 104, 105 bucks in earnings this year. we think we can paid 110 next year. 5% to 8% in the growth in the u.s. markets this year and next year. we think they're higher. >> thank you. >> my m pleasure. >> congratulations on your elevation. >> thanks. >> simon? top states for business survey says about the presidential election, you might be surprised with the result. we're back in two. from around the world... ...with the best math scores. ...the united states would be on that list. in 25th place.

let's raise academic standards across the nation. let's get back to the head of the class. let's solve this.

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look at corn prices. this is important. this is one of the reasons we're told corn selling off a bit right now. the united states department of agriculture just within the past few minutes putting out a new release, detailing a whole host of new emergency drought procedures. this seen as an effort to help farmers, among the procedures that they're going to be implementing here are lower emergency interest rates for farmers out of the usda and designate 1,016 counties as natural disaster areas and effort by the federal government to help farmers in emergency situations will help them produce more corn and may be one of the reasons to see this price move right now. back to you. >> particularly with mortgages on farm land. thank you. that brings us nicely to the finance.yahoo.com poll question of the day. have you started to see an increase of yore grocery bill?

here's what america says. 55% say, yes. 28% say, they haven't seen an increase as yet but one wonders if that will change over time. now to man duh drury with a look at the next important hour. >> we, of course, think it's very important. back on the regular gig on "street signs." top of the hour, coming up, the fed minutes right at 2:00 p.m. eastern, looking out for hints of possible qe3 with the bond king bill gross. and then herb on herbalife and understanding the company's complex business model and whether the shorts have it right here. later on, we debate the 401(k) plans. the best time to buy or a time to save for the golden years? back to you on "power lunch." >> thank you very much for that. headline time here. callaway golf in the weeds a bit after reporting announcing a 10%

wo wo workforce cut. estee lauder losing ground. currently trading down again 2.25%. abercrombie and fitch gaining ground on reports of buying back a hefty amount of shares and that stock gaining over 4 -- so far in the market currently down 39 points. ty, back to you. >> thanks very much. by now you probably know that the cnbc top state for business is once again texas. now we want to take a closer look at the other key states did, especially political swing states in this presidential election. are they better for business now than they were four years ago? let's bring in cnbc's eamon javers in washington and scott cohn still in austin. all three states we'll look at voted democratic in the most recent presidential election. start with wisconsin.

one of the bigger movers of four years ago. where was it then? where is it today and what say you? >> yeah. well, you know, the interesting thing in wisconsin is that it was really a laggard in the study over many, many years. governor scott walker has come in and one of his priorities was to improve the state's business climate. there are suggestions this seems to be working. governor walker was on cnbc "squawk box" earlier this week and told us competitiveness is crucial. >> it does give you a goal on a lot of factors, not just on taxes but the things he's talking about. quality of life. business interaction. supplier based and getting better. >> so let's look at the scorecard and the track record. back in 2008, wisconsin finished 37th in america's top states for business. best category was education. ninth. and test scores both k-12 and high school were good.

in the workforce category, 37th. big union state. that's a legacy. a right to work state or not a right to work state i should say and received bad marks for the training programs. fast forward to 2012. wisconsin has done better. 17th this year. that's the best in the history of the study. best marks for infrastructure number six. education by the way is still at number ten so the education cuts haven't hurt and workforce at 43rd still with a legacy of those -- >> which way does wisconsin's wind blow politically? >> the president carried in 2008 and we have poll numbers mere as to where wisconsin stands right now. taking a look at the polls, what you see is obama is leading romney by a margin of 48% to 44% according to the real clear politics, this is an averaged assessment of the polls out there. the spread is obama up by about four in wisconsin and, of course, you know, scott put

it -- his finger on it exactly. it is all about labor in wisconsin. the big fight there is scott walker facing a recall effort. that fight has got both labor and republicans and conservatives energized. we should see a real battle in wisconsin in november. >> virginia, scott, we need to pick up a little speed here. virginia didn't move much 2008 to 2012. it had been a number one state and it is still highly ranked but it is interesting nonetheless. >> yeah. it's interesting what happened. we reported on this yesterday. virginia down to number three. in 2008, it was the number two state overall. nurm ber two for business friendly. number 28 for quality of life. look at what happened this year. number three, third for business friendliness and a big slide in the infrastructure category. this is a big issue for the governor. and also, the state took a little ding in its credit rating. aaa credit rating still but a negative outlook because of its

dependence on washington. >> and virginia -- >> that's an interesting twist for virginia. >> virginia, my home state, aemon, typically voted republican. it did not in 2008. where does it lean now? >> that's interesting. leaning obama now. take a look at the real clear average politics for virginia. romney 44.5%. so the spread there about three points. the trend in virginia is all about government contracting in northern virginia. that's pumped a lot of suburban voters in to northern virginia making a traditionally red state a little bit more purple this time around and therefore winnable for obama. it would have been unthinkable years ago. >> right, finally, and quickly, scott, ohio the ultimate swing state. where does it rank now and where did it in '08? >> '08, 30th. in 2008, good infrastructure but the union legacy. that continues in 2012 finishing

25th. cost of business is good. that's been a priority for republican governor john kasich. >> which way does it lean? leaning obama, 46.2% obama, 43.6%, romney. in a squeaker. all three states here we have republican governors aenl yet obama is edging out his opposition. >> interesting the look at business climates versus the political polling. thank you. appreciate it. which states do you the viewers of cnbc are tops for business? quef a good old-fashioned top states twitter battle going on right now. you can cast your vote. simon? coming up, the fallout over fitness at facebook. why yoga instructor said she was fired after teaching a class at the company's headquarters. is it all really a bit of a stretch? the power run down is straight ahead. event.

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welcome back to cnbc. we just caught up with directv ceo mike white who handicapped the latest in the stand still with viacom.

here's what we said. >> pretty far apart at the moment. they're looking for a billion dollar increase over five years compared to the half a billion dollars a year we pay them right now and that's something that the customers can't afford and it's certainly we don't think a fair deal relative to the largest competitors in the industry. we had made a proposal to them we thought was more than fair for double-digit increase in their rates. and they rejected it. >> reporter: now, white said that he spoke with philip domond and surprised they didn't have a deal last night. he expressed optimism to get one in the near term. we'll have the latest for you on that. >> this is going to change the whole spin on the weekends at my home where there will be no "spongebob." could be tragic, kayla. >> reporter: i'm sorry to hear

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70 seconds, the fed will 70 seconds, the fed will release the minutes of the last meeting. talking about qe, this market will rocket. meantime, commodity space as a result of moves we believe are coming from the u.s. department of agriculture you can see that many of those softs are lower the exception, ty, of sugar which is still in positive territory. >> simon, thanks very much. great being with you today. ed, you say that the next 16 hours or so are going to be all about central banks. first with the fed minutes. >> coming in about one minute from now. could create a lot of volatility and then 4:00 a.m. the european central bank has their monthly bulletin and we have to get up early. >> what do you look for from the european central bank? what is typically in it? >> possibly going to be making comments of ltro or other things for liquidity and never know. a wild card. you have the fed coming, the european central bank. it could get wild. >> watch where the dow is right now and in light of