follow me on twitter and google plus and facebook. fast money begins right now. stay with cnbc. i will see you tomorrow. >> betting on a bernanke bump did not pay off today. >> if you're looking for massive change in language. if you're looking for something unique and different, you will not get it here. >> investors are not going to be discouraged yet. >> going to have a slightly different tone. perhaps stronger hints. >> i just think this economy needs a palace. it needs a spark. maybe it will come from europe but the fundamentals are there. we need the spirits back. >> you can't keep a fast money trader down. and josh brown shopping for deals fresh from the trading floor, this is fast money. >> live from the nasdaq market silt in new york city's time

square, i'm melissa lee. >> why not? aren't you ready? >> i am born ready. >> i think today gave something to bulls and bears. you closed 14.41. what does that mean? 14.22 was the recent high we saw back in may. this is effectively the 50% retracement. we're definitely not staying here. i'm more on the negative fence but i tell you what if the market can close at the 13.50 level then we will probably push through the 13.66 level. yesterday, i don't know if you mentioned on the show, yesterday we had an outside day to the downside.

>> we did have a lot of action in the markets. >> we have got the cha seung baek cha. ultimately held key levels. the 15 and the 20. got a bow tie. >> that is coming up now. >> more importantly, we have got a lot today but i don't know what we have got. in fact, what we did get was starting out the day. pushes a lot of that down the road. the fed minutes are very important. give me weakness, therefore give me strength. that is not what most want to deal with.

that was the move today. otherwise we have broken to the downside and all the negativity that he seize. the warnings we have gotten so far tell you that no one is too goosed up about growth. >> josh? >> i actually think if you saw the fed minutes, we negated that sell off. it's actually acting quite rationally. the fact that we are headed into q 2 earnings season and it won't be very pleasant. this is the slowest quarter since in the second quarter of 2009. specifically seven out of the ten are not going to show any expansion earnings at all. that's why we are seeing this market fail to hold a bid number one. this new pattern is basically lower highs and lower lows. that's really what we have got today even though they tried to bring them back. >> we saw a weakness across the

board and that is one of the sectors that a lot of people are concerned about. you probably saw this. sanford flagged the potential fx head wind. that took the stock down by 1.8%. and this is just sort of one company that may face this head wind. a lot of multination al companis face this head wind. >> it's a problem that we will see for a long long time. in the retail space you saw burberry miss. a lot of interesting retail moves today, including jc penny and a debt downgrade. but there is also names that were big names like a fossil or decker. you have got wonder, a lot of

the vacuums already. >> were you sniffing for value? >> i was looking for value. i didn't pull the trigger. somebody pointed out to me fossil. >> you watch on me there? >> consumer expression has been fossil, the list is endless. consumer discretionary is bearing the brunt of this. they are very freaked out about the consumer. >> walmart did actually -- >> walmart and target finished really nice. >> you know what? sorry. >> yeah. anyway. let's talk minutes today. policymakers acknowledging a slow down. still no mention of pulling the trigger.

>> there is not one fed official that believes the unemployment rate will be below 6.3%. you don't get to the. >> let's bring in david. >> since you last appeared on cnb cnbc. there is no need for the forecast to change. economic events as i thought they were. whipped up into a frenzy.

skewing the data. you know, the reaction to the minutes. the market responds or to the reality that earnings are now contracting and there is no there is nothing in the minutes today. they stand ready to ease the policy. >> i agree. they downgraded the outlook. >> i would like to talk about the dollar strength. at least gave us some official euphoria. i think europe is in their best interest to continue to push down the euro.

strong dollar it might expedite the head wind? >> no question. there is no question about that. europe's economic situation is far more dire than it is in the states. it makes perfect sense when you consider the acute currency depreciation depreciations the dollar will continue to go up. financial markets in general, when the dollar goes up,

typically that is enough to the risk on trade. keeping an eye on the dollar is very important. i agree with that. >> i think you are talking three more rounds. do you think they will have any positive impact to the market? do you think they will push riskier assets higher? >> if they do, it will be measured maybe in days. and relentless is. >> i think you're starting to see the classic diminishing returns start to set in on these policies. if feds probably going to have a lot more to do. i think they are going keep

their powder dry and not look as though they are panicking. they have been extremely aggressive and they will continue to be aggressive. i think over time the impact on the economy is going dissipate. i think that it's very difficult for bernanke and fed policy to come back. one of the things is fiscal outlook. that's part of the problem. how does policy deal with that? >> j.p. morgan, especially in focus as reports surface. could call backs be coming for those involved in the trading loss? jamie dimon weighed in. >> it's a right thing to do and a wrong thing to do. we will do the right thing when

we figure out what it is. the right thing for the company and the people all things considered. >> and it's interesting. reports are out today mention that the head of the office, mentioned the trader and the trader's boss. i wonder if you think he needs to pay anything back for the worst to be behind the spot. basically say i will lead the 31 million. that's a smart move to me. i think what is the earnings quality going to be.

that is really what shareholders should be concerned with. >> i agree with every word he just said including & and the. >> he is not the highest paid employee in the bank nor the highest paid banker on the street. but still i think it sends a message that, you know, the buck stops here. >> mike, obviously, a buy back would be a great thing from the shareholder perspective. >> i think shareholders are probably hoping for just about anything here. but i also think that there have been several instances over the course of the last couple of months where people have tried to buy this stock at a discount. i think that is probably one of the reasons why we see open interest increasing steadily here.

>> i like it. it is your -- most levered to housing and housing is absolutely on the up swing even though it is very slow. >> coming up next we are talking china and checks. the real story on retail from an

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let's get some afterhours action. shares are lower. 42 cents a share. revenue came in a bit short. the lower end of that range. brian kelly who is riding in the side car horse tonight.

>> i would look fir yacht. >> in the meantime the slower economy hitting the high end retailers. burberry reporting that it dropped well below

>> a nice job for a luxury business building both a great retail operation. and when we look at luxury businesses going forward we are far more confident in this is a control brand rather than reselling other people's brands. >> can you give examples of that? >> a good example of a retailer that is selling its own brand and has done a marvelous job.

>> those are the types of items that get picked off. i think that is some of what you are seeing happening to the higher end. >> is there a luxury retailer that is more u.s. focused than most and maybe could be a bit more impervious to what you are seeing? >> i think it is important. knee mans has attracted more. sachs seems to attract global affluence a little more. >> a really strong online competitor and they had to

reto retool. they have probably done the nice nicest. >> what does it take for them to go away. once they are away, how do they need a lot of reassurance to come back? >> it's funny. you hear on shows like this all the time. one is willing to pay. when you look at the strength of retailers. you go to t.j.maxx on a saturday, you're parking next to mercedes and bmws.

>> what triggers that? we had a notable downgrade. >> a huge factor and volatility boasts a higher impact. is that the terms when we see the stock market go all over the place. is that when we start seeing them go away and go the t.j t.j. maxx instead? >> those shoppers are balance sheet shoppers. they assess their wealth based on their assets versus their liabilities. that's going to be about revenue in versus expenditure out and that is how i decide whether i'm wealthy. >> the real trick.

>> other things being for that shopper to spend. >> we have about 15 seconds literally. of the ones you don't like. macy's, kohl's, true religion. >> i think the toys r us's exposure to amazon in particular, given how many of the shoppers that are in toys r us once a month. >> we appreciate it. >> it's funny. we have a psa for you. jimmy choos run narrow. >> how do you know? >> have you tried yourself?

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>> welcome back to fast money. corn continuing its monster rally. but futures reverse in course around noon. futures also dropping off their highs. we have to go to you for this trade. >> for the crop report. it looks like perhaps. people talk. >> they are still on a monster

run. i wonder at this point if you should start consider pulling some off the table. >> i think this is a good place to begin to see that trade. if you look at the rsi products. before the entire commodities start to trade down. because of their neighborhoods. kns and syt are names i could still own. maybe do that on a fair trade. >> let's continue the corn conversation with jeff of killburg capital. always good to see you. taking a look at the etf. you always hear about these that are very specific but they are dangers with them as well. >> all right. just like the guys we are talking about. nothing like a bullish crop report to stop the bulls dead in their tracks today.

with a substantial downgrade, nearly 33% higher on the traders. it's very quiet right now. this place was rocking today. i think that corn etf. more room to run there. i am focused. interesting to see. it's a nice way to play this irrigation play. a way to get this. at the end of the day, these farmers are going to re-evaluate and mitigate their risk. matching the 1937 dust bowl here in the midwest. >> think about the corn etf. it's very, you know, small product there. so i would imagine you could be whipped around easily. i want to bring you into this conversation. would you ever use this etf?

>> it's really two things. >> see you next time. >> don't forget the dba is another way. >> time now for pops and drops. we kick it off with a pop for dekkers. >> something i never thought i would say on live television. sheep skin prices affecting the stock now. dekkers getting crushed. >> big annuals. >> that's what i have. >> i don't. >> let's leave it. >> job here for callaway. >> hit one in the bunker here

for the earnings. i think this is a name you stay away from. >> from well financed competitors. people don't want to own the stock. it is written all over the tank. >> got a pop for the fxi. up. >> still putting in a decent chart level here. this is definitely a play on the macro feel. got the fixed asset investment. a lot of data coming out. it has been very priced in. i could stay long. >> got a drop here. down here 3%. >> 3%. that is not so bad. >> i think most of the bad news from their earnings release, the

big revenue guide down. >> mike? >> lower production estimates for corn also translating to lower production estimates. >> this is not a good recipe for them. >> coming up next, investors place the hide out in global growth. a safety play of a different variety. one to try to make your day. we will give you the trade right after this.

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>> we are live in times square. let's get to some options action. getting slammed wunss again today after the company slashed its outlook. what did you see in the etf here? >> we see a substantial bearish bet being made. about 62,000 times. that represents 6.2 million shares of the xli etf which

comments as one. all of these industrial names are in this basket. the xli is up marginally on the year. >> now karen calls. is there any other place >> i like it. i think they are in a lot of the right bidses. i love what they do with natural gas vehicles.

i don't hate it. >> one of the longer times is really for buying great companies. >> i know we will continue to get good head wind. that's a company you do hold on to. >> you catch more every friday at 5:00. and follow us on twitter. treasuries rising up to record low yields of today's ten year note sale. the central bank showing no signs. does it still make sense to stay in treasury? let's ask bill irving who manages. great to have you with us. >> pleasure to be here. >> the first thing i want to ask

you. >> what do you make of the forecast? >> i think it's entirely possible. we already have negative yields on many treasury securities. at this point i would say. >> i'm sorry? >> does this sort of put a floor under -- support the trade that we have been working on all along. corporate bonds and high yields? >> i don't know that it's necessarily supportive of lows trades. it has been about the most effective diversifier against the equity component of the overall portfolio.

they still make sense. >> brian kelly? got a question? >> part of the treasury trade is that there are fewer and fewer safe assets out there. are you seeing new buyers coming in that may have been buying european bonds coming into the us strezy markets? >> i think there have been flows from the other types of bonds. >> i would just ask this seems to be like a one way trade. if you were look iing not on yields with total returns. >> just consider, the general consensus has been a rising yield environment. and again and again, that perspective was turned out to be

wrong. i think we are in a very low yield environment given the low yield environments we have. and the potential for a slow down. i think there is still the potential for further disruptions. i don't think they're cheap. >> thanks so much for your time. >> tim as a diversifier, are you in treasuries. >> my fixed income, i had a lot of emerging market debt.

for as long as people have been trying, people have been getting burned. direct interest from the streets. >> next trade here. when you think of safety trades, firearms may not be the first thing in my mind. >> mike, good to speak with you.

>> background checks are done by the fbi. they are point of sale checks. and you can adjust those checks to remove concealed carry permits and get a very good proxy for firearm sales. they were up off of a very strong count for the year before as well. sales this past six months are up over 20%. >> margins, june 28, margins were spectacular. they blew away. a name we talked about for a while. i think valuations are still fair. the stock is well mentioned as more than doubled here. >> this name if you look historically, it has traded historically higher. there is a new management team. late last year. he is focused on firearms.

they just vested their security business. >> how much of this growth is the an arky trade. how much is attributable to something else. >> certainly. there are three real the first is political buying. before the election, people who are buying firearms because they think that if re-elected, president obama might go after more firearms regulation. >> it has been up significantly over the past kwouple of years. >> who new.

>> by the number of channel checks. >> based on your channel checks. >> certainly. there were a lot of theories out there when it comes to firearms purchasers. it's tough to get an on the ground view of what they think will happen with the economy. there are people that do think that president obama could be re-elected. and if so, he would go after firearms regulation. i do want to point out that there is a lot of political appetite that would make it peace stocks in the long term. >> good to know. mike green, thank you so much.

>> just let me go on and on about this. i have never. female firearm ownership is up. >> coming up, it is a problem plaguing some of america's largest companies to a tune of half a million dollars. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account.

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>> what does it mean for earnings in the future? he is a principle and consulting actuary. great to have you with us. are we putting off the inevitable that the companies will have to make up for the shortfalls? >> companies who are facing a bulge in contributions over the years.

>> are they what can these companies do as the margins help make up for the shortfall with the extra time that they have. >> our advice is not to go all the way zoun the new minimum but to try to level off the contribution. shave off the hump. try to b even out contributions. one thing to worry about is the impact on company's earnings. >> do you think investors look at liability as well as expense that goes through a particular years income statements? that they are not really saving anything? >> most are not going to be looking at cash fund iing. their pension expense may go up. >> which are you most concerned

about? i would imagine. these radio going down a lot right now. >> exactly. where revenues are going down or where cash is short. >> john, we got to leave it there. thanks for. >> find out what is owned. and the unveiling of our trade of the day is just moments away. we here are always looking out for you. what is made for your protection. stay tuned. like these, it can be tough to know which ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 way the wind is blowing. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we're ready with objective insights about

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>> not so >> not so fast. our traders are quick but not always right. take a listen to what guy said back in may. >> what you have seen.

>> wouldn't say raging into it tomorrow. j.c. penny washed out last week. >> a couple things come to mind. it's very dangerous. >> that's why you said not so fast? >> the next day was the 16th and we saw that, 43 million shared day. there was a short term bottom. so much as within a few days later the stock was trading north of 20. so the trade worked out in the very short term. the thing you have to take away from this is don't get married to anything. your shop should have been what the low was and it would have worked oat wul. so it didn't work out. it worked out for a couple days. it would have been fine.

. >> not so fast. >> not so fast. . >> raging into it. >> we talk a lot about the safe haven assets out there. it's not gold or dividend paying stocks. because it eegs an inflation protected bond. the important thing is in a deflationnary environment. it's a great blaze to be. you can buy some of the individuals as well. >> he's raging. >> i love it. >> who doesn't.

>> it is late. >> we will forgive that. anyway. any n case you didn't read. >> now we know who the unanimous buyer is. skon gratlations. i don't spend money on gasoline. i don't have to use gas. i am probably going to the gas station about once a month. drive around town all the time doing errands and never ever have to fill up gas in the city. i very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. last time i was at a gas station was about...i would say... two months ago.

the last time i went to the gas station must have been about three months ago. i go to the gas station such a small amount that i forget how to put gas in my car. ♪

>> >> time for the final trade. mike? >> volatilities so low. hedge report portfolio. >> better late than never? >> i will still go with tip. >> tim? >> tell it to you. >> all no relation to dekkers. another all time high. >> karen? >> i don't normally do. long google, short facebook. i can't get over the. tgt, i like it for the same reason that i like walmart.