meep meep. meep meep? (sfx: loud thud sound) what a strange place. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. hi, everybody, good afternoon. i'm maria bartiromo. the dow is on track for a three-day winning streak. >> i'm tyler mathison. and the doucet to close at it's highest level since may. and it was technology. we'll be all over those numbers that come out right after the

close of trading. the results could set the tone for tomorrow's trading session. let's take a look at the numbers as they stand right now. the industrials higher by 30 points. nasdaq holding on to eight tenths of a gain. s&p 500 up 3 2/3. will this come to an abrupt end? he is shorting the s&p 500 in this strong market. >> what does the rest of our panel have to say? we have bob pisani and rick santelli, do you green with darrell who is short in the markets? >> no, i don't see any reason why he would be doing that.

we have evaluations, china is cheap, but i don't think it's the way to go. investors need to look at some of the relative value between expensive telecoms and cheap tech. tonight i don't think microsoft or google will blame the fiscal cliff for bad earnings. >> you know what, look, it is creating uncertainty. you are seeing that in the form of not a lot of activity in terms of people putting new money to work. yes we have a strong market, a couple days that we're seeing money move, but you're seeing very, very light volume. >> i would agree that the right volume is a problem, but still there is so much money seeking out the risk-free treasury rates and high yield, and intermediate government bonds. i think after we get through this earnings season, and a few excuses about fiscal cliffs, i think it will be euro zone headlines. it's a great thing to get me

into a position, maybe it will cause short term downdraft, but after a few weeks, this fiscal cliff, it's not going to be a big deal. use it to trade, get in your positions. >> darrell, the fiscal cliff will not be a big deal, that's what lee says. do you buy that thought? >> the key reason we're bearish is complacency set in again. the vix consistently signalled the market top for the last three years. volatility declined, but europe is continuing to get worse, and number two you have a major head wind for the fiscal cliff looming out there. you can trade equities, but we're short because complacency is low and there are many headwinds in front of us. >> so you're expecting a selloff, how significant of a

decline and where will the leadership be on the downside? >> number one, our model port foal you shorted the broad market. we think what's going to happen is there will be dollar strength that will deflate commodities, and commodities are driven by global growth. we think global growth will continue to slow. that's collectively bad for k d commodities as well. >> rick, discuss, react. >> i think in the risk parameters our guests are outlining their pretty accurate and the bond market backs that we had. we have 11 straight sessions that closed under 160 yield. four of them have closed under 150. so it's hard to think that the treasury mark is looking at anything other than the fact that risk is to be avoided. we had a record negative yield.

the last tips issue, never had a yield that wasn't negative. we see yields negative all over europe. the only thing you can say is there is a nervousness there. i'm not following the stock beat, but the money has to go somewhere. in treasuries and u.s. stocks may look better when europe starts to look worse again. >> look at the deep cyclicals. even a guy like me can get pulled into a caterpillar. people don't understand the aven avalanche of money coming. >> if global growth is slowing, caterpillar is the last stock you want to own, especially if china slows. to play deep cyclicals is the wrong call.

>> china is always discounted. it's 20% or 30% cheaper. >> sometimes cheap stocks get cheaper, right? >> i think if you're in a value trap, and you look at standard deviation, the valuation historically, one can make the case, clearly not a hedger, we have that extreme reading right now. three or four months ago i would not have touched china. now i'm into it and like it. people know that china is lying about growth, but that's news from three months ago, not today. >> you better hope they get their infrastructure project going because it's not looking particularly great right now. >> thank you, we'll see you soon. investors are awaiting, a pair of big earnings tonight from google, jackie de angelis with

that right now. >> the market is digesting the good numbers from qualcom. it's playing catch up in the last few days, it will be interesting to see if that can last after google and microsoft report this afternoon. on revenue of $8 .4 billion. for microsoft we're looking -- google was higher on a percentage basis than micro soft was. the financials are some of the worst performers today. that weakness coming from morgan stanley's results this morning. revenue declined across the trading, wealth, and asset management business. their results further pressured by the two notch downgrade. it is weighing down the whole group today, and you see here the financials are having a bit

of a tough time. some stocks having a tough time today and some on the up side. >> about 53 minutes before the closing bell and the do you is up 24 points. the s&p up by 2, and the nasdaq by 22. will prices crash if china's economy keeps slowing? we have a ceo that weighs in, next. and hank paulson tells us how concerned america should be about the looming fiscal cliff, and do we need more regulation after the jpmorgan trading loss? barney frank joins us live.

welcome back, crude have the the best run in nearly 7 years.

>> oil prices are really helping the entire commodities complex gain ground up about 10% in the last four weeks. we're looking at oil prices with the 7th straight gain. they are topping $93 a barrel for this session. a lot has to do with the tensions in the middle east driving prices and technical momentum taking prices to these heights. cooper is a two-week high and grains as the drought seems to worsen in the midwest. corn and soy beans at an all time high. >> chest check freeport mcmoran shares today. they were down 49% on weaker revenue, but it's the forecast to come.

look at the symptom up 4.5%. >> the world's largest publicly traded copper producing is predicting a production increase of over 25% in the next three years. where will this boost come from? joining us a is mr. richard ackerson. great to have you. >> thank you. sales of copper off, some of the revenues from the metals down, what's behind that weakness? >> it was expected. the quarter was in line with the guidance we gave at the end of the first quarter. we were in a lore grade section of ore, and prices at today's level of 350 are below what they were a year ago, and we're still very profitable at that level because our costs are in the $1.50 range. >> what are you seeing in terms

of china right now, how slow is that slow down? >> there is a slow down, but you know, we're not seeing it as much as cooper as maybe in some other areas. continued spending on infrastructure, the markets reacting positively to signs that the chinese government will take actions to help build growth, inflation is under control there, so you know, china will go through it's changes, but we're optimistic about it. >> your prediction seems optimistic. tell us your vision there, how do you come up with this very strong guidance? what are you expecting for the rest of the year and into 2013? >> well, in our business, copper is -- prices are supported by supply problems that the industry faces. today's copper mines face

falling grading, there is disruptions for various reasons, and development of new supplies are limited for many factors. so while the overall economic situation is where it is with europe being in it's situation and slow growth in the united states, copper as a commodity is supported really by limited supplies. so we're in a position to take advantage of that because we have very large reserves and resources associated with our existing mines. so by investing in brownfield projects, we can step up supplies when the industry as a whole is challenged by that. >> so our confident that 25% growth is easily achievable based on your brownfield mining development. you must have an assumption on

what the price of copper will be on average over the next year or two years? >> tyler, we look at a scenario of prices. we don't let ourselves fall into a trap of trying to predict a price, because history shows that there will be things that will happen that are unanticipated that will cause prices to change. so we look at what we would do if prices were to weaken. we look for opportunities to take advantage of if prices are strong in the longer range, we're very optimistic about copper price. >> but it has, as you well know, it's been volatile and $3 or $4 over the last year. do you think on balance with that scenario pricing that it will stay closer to it's current level in the $3 plus area or revert to something different?

>> i hate to say it, but it all depends. you just pointed out the fact that while we can't let ourselves predict prices, we showed to the world that if prices drop we can adjust to it. we did that in 2008 and 2009, and we showed that we can provide volumes and make a lot of money. and if prices go higher, we will be very profitable, and generate a lot of cash for our shareholders. >> richard, where is the demand coming from right now? where would you say the real growth story at your company comes from? give us a sense of demand for geographies as well as sectors. >> well, the growth in volume is coming from mine development that we're doing in south america and peru, in the united

states, and arizona where we're investing and hiring people, and with an expansion of our project in africa. demand is driven by china and the developing world, although in the united states where we provide almost half of the copper rod that goes into the down stream business, copper demand is relatively stronger than the overall u.s. economy because of growth in sectors like the automobile industry and also we're seeing some improved situation with housing. >> okay, we'll leave it there, thank you so much. >> thanks. >> thank you very much, richard. 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds. 30 points on the dow industrials. >> google and microsoft both set to report their earnings after the bell, if you could only buy one, which would it be.

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we have about 39 minutes to go, let's give you a quick stat check. industrials making a run at the first three day winning streak

up more than 45 points right now. trading in a tight 88 point range top to bottom. teches and materials, strong gains there, tell comes pulling the other way. the s&p tech index climbing for a third straight day as you see there up about a percent and a half. >> todd, thank you, we're fired up for a big evening of technology earnings, both google and microsoft reporting earnings after the bell tonight. which tech giant is a better buy right now? we want to do that in talking numbers right now. richard ross is with me, he is a global tech strategist, and on the fundamental side, abigail doolittle. thank you for joining us. google and microsoft, let's look at the charts, richard, which looks better to you? >> we're very bullish on google going into these numbers.

the stock has been adisappointment but we're down 7%. the nasdaq composite. when we look at this chart we see a complexion head and shoulders top, it's a pattern made up of increasically more complex head and shoulders. it has a bearish connotation, but it's really not, absent of break down, around that 560 level, this has a bullish connotation. this is a bullish spring board. we think the earning wills provide that fundamental catalyst. we have a upward stock on this. >> so you wait until after the numbers? >> we want to buy right here. >> would you buy google here as well? >> yeah, maria, i would have to take the other side of that

trade. the stock is down sharply this year, especially relative to the technology. this is a reflection in my view that ad pricing has been declining. the expectation is that we will continue into this quarter. that could really pressure shares, not to mention difficults out of europe, currency head winds, and investors will be looking to see what they do it the motorola growth. i would expect google to trade at the bottle of a three-year trend and close to the bearish path earn that rich was talking about. >> rich, let's talk microsoft here. >> if you believe what abigail thinks, and you don't like google, microsoft is another great way to play it. the stock is up 18% year to date beating the averages unlike

google, we had a 13 pull back into a textbook double bottom base of support. what i like is that it ends in a false break down below the 200 moving day average. that's a break down below that 200-day just as we saw back in june. we're now 8% higher. we think history repeats itself. microsoft, once we get there 31, she trades 33. we're a buyer right here. >> so bottom line, abigail, what's your take on microsoft? >> we think it's up 20% year to date, it's on investor anticipate around the release of windows 8 and office 2013. we think it could do have been by the rumors sell the event. unless this company really wows with this launch, i think it could drag on shares, there's a big gab down in the 26 area, and

i think that will close this year into next year. >> thank you so much. >> ty, over to you. >> 35 minutes left to trade, the nasdaq is higher by about 24. and hank paulson pulling no punches. >> we have a broken tax system. >> paulson going off about america's tax system and the fiscal cliff. you don't want to miss this candid interview he did with maria and steve leisman after his delivering alpha appearance. >> can congress get it's act together and avoid the tax hikes americans fear for next year? donald trump will weigh in. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i'm constantly working my screens. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 checking the charts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 looking for support, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 resistance, breakouts, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a few other tricks that i'll keep to myself.

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so, are stocks going to make it a three day winning streak? first time for that in a long time, bob pisani, what do you say? >> could somebody explain these saw tooth patterns in some of

the stocks today? look at mcdonalds, it looks like somebody buys at the top of every hour, sells at the bottom of the hour, and someone buys it exactly at the top of the hour. look at ibm, it's the same pattern, this saw tooth pattern, buy at exactly the top of the hour, sell at the bottom, and buy again at the top. put up coca-cola again, what is that all about is this they are exactly at the top. i asked around and said it looks strange to me. is anyone out buying in a pattern? and i can't get any answers on that. it's a mystery now. we're in the middle of our trading range today. >> how did you find that, bob? >> i love it. >> it's hard, you know, you're in a small room by yourself -- >> you found good ones there, bob. thank you for that, i enjoyed

those charts pb hank paulson was in a talking mood yesterday, and after his delivering alpha panel with bob rubin he did an bonus interview with myself and steve leisman. you were supposed to see it live, but the massive thunderstormeds killed our satellite feeds. i began by asking him on his comments about the looming fiscal cliff. >> i was really struck by what you said, you said oh they will deal with it, meaning leadership in washington, but the question is will they deal with it before the crisis or after the crisis. so if they don't deal with it, we will have a crisis, is that what you're saying? >> absolutely, it's the most inevitable thing you have seen. this huge fiscal problem starring us in the face, and the markets giving us plenty of time to deal with it, and i think the reason is market is giving us so much time, is we are a rich

economy. and what the bowles-simpson recommendation showed is that we can spread around so no one sector sacrifices too much. so this is in many ways, much more of a government crisis than a economic crisis. but another thing we said, and bob rubin and i said the same thing, it's impossible to know when the market will turn. but when it does, it will do to with a vengeance. >> in a way we're distracted by this fiscal cliff. the prize is growth, and the issue is competitiveness when we talk about the long-term prospects of america. >> maria, the point that i made is that if you look at our current economic problems,

there's probably three reasons for it. first of all, obviously, we had the great recession, this huge deleveraging going on. that will come back over time. secondly there's an uncertainty around the government's ability or willingness to act on the fiscal cliff. thirdly, we have a competitiveness issue. and the way i define competitiveness is this. can u.s. businesses compete with those around the world and have our standard of living go up? we're not competitive if our standard of living is going down. we're debating the wrong things. what should we do with high income earner es. no one is debating the fact that we need a totally new tax system to give us the revenues we need and let us be competitive. >> why haven't we see that yet? steve, i feel like every time we hear from the federal reserve

it's on all on the fed. why are we not hearing more on what the fiscal policy side. >> there was discussion from rob rubin that maybe the fed is bailing out the political side as well. >> hank didn't want to talk about monetary policy. >> that's why i didn't ask you, but i knew you would say that. >> here is what i said, you have to just look at the facts and this is happening to central banks everywhere. the problems are fiscal problems in europe and the u.s., and they are competitiveness problems. it's not just cutting. it's how do we have real reform and policies that let us grow and create jobs and have rising income? the fed can't deal with that. but the fed is left with few choices. they're the only institutions that can act. so i don't find fault with what they're doing. i don't go to sleep at night worrying about inflation. and he is protecting the downside. >> i don't find fault in what he's doing, he's the only one

doing anything. >> he is the only one doing anything, but what we need -- we need to debate the big issues. it will be a huge -- one of the things that steve asked, he said hank, if the only thing standing between solving the problem was raising the rates for the highest earners, what would you do? and i said the reason i'm not going to answer that question, is because i'll be disgusted if all we do is raise rates for a system that doesn't work. we have -- half of the american voters pay no income taxes. i would be fine, personally, with having those earning the most pay more if it was part of a system that was going to work and give us the revenues we need and let us be competitive. but we have a broken tax system. >> i didn't get to ask you

during the event about china. i think one of the questions out there is how long can we count on china to be a principal buyer and roller over of our debt. >> this is a great question. you wrote about this in your book. >> people raise that question all the time, and it's the most frequent question i get about china. don't you hate the fact that they're buying our debt and so on? i say i hate the fact that we have so much debt, okay? i hate that fact. when you look at what china is doing, china is buying our treasuries not to be good to us, they're buying the treasuries because they have to put their money somewhere, okay? they have to put their money somewhere, and are they going to choose the euro, the yen, where are they going to put it? in terms of the risk, when you look at the percentage on treasuries they're buying, their the biggest buyer of treasuries, it was 9% or 10%.

it's a third to half of their foreign exchange reserves. so this is a bigger finish for china than for us. so when i talk about moving their currency and why it's in their best interest, i said they have two choices, they can either, you know, move to a market determined currency, or they can keep buying to prop up their currency. they can keep buying euro bonds and dollars and funding our structural deficits. >> do you think all of these issues will impact obama's reelection? but romney has a real shot in all of this. >> i will simply say i do think the president, the person that's elected president, should be the one that makes the best case on the economy. because let me tell you something, everything starts with our economy. our national security, our foreign policy, everything starts with our economy.

it's much different as a treasury secretary when you're telling other people what you would like them to do. let me tell you, i've seen it. i watched it. when your economy is performing well. i watched it when i was talking to the chinese before the financial crisis and after the financial crisis. so i have seen it. and i've been on my knees in front of congress. i don't think we will ever be on our knees globally, but everything in this election should be about the economy and what we do to restore it, but what i don't like, is how it is right now. and my concern is that the election will be so bitter that it may be hard for the parties to get together and compromise. my thanks to former treasury secretary hank paulson. >> i thought he made so much sense in that interview and at delivering alpha yesterday.

>> the point on tax policy, how long have we been talking about tax policy, and why haven't we seen a change to such a complicated system. >> that will not solve the problem, it's a thorough tax reform of the sort he talks about that helps us restore -- >> so what is stopping us from making a change. >> politics. it's too delicious and beautifully polarizing to not go there. enough of that. there are right now, let's see there is about 21 minutes left before the closing bell, and the dow right now is up 25 and the nasdaq up 23. >> and we will talk about why cautious investor sentiment could be a good sign for the bulls. >> and how much money do millionaires need to feel wealthy? it's a lot more than a million. shocking new results on a poll of what it takes to feel rich at 4:00. >> before we go to break, the

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just before the break we asked which retail stock has shot up the most so far this year? costco, target, or walmart? now the payoff, walmart which has risen about 20% year to date. >> this is in many ways much more of a government crisis than a economic crisis. but, another thing we said, both bob rubin and i said the same thing, it's impossible to know when the market will turn. but when it does, it will do so with a vengeance. >> and that was part of our interview with hank paulson. straight from yesterday's cnbc delivering alpha conference. he talked about the risk for interest rates to turn around in a big and sudden way.

we have reaction now from two guests. become both of you. mr. paulson, yesterday, when he said vengeance, he was not thinking in a good way. he was thinking if we get into a crisis, the market which has been relatively calm, will turn and do so violently. do you shee that in the cards, frank? >> there's a very good chance if this fiscal cliff occurs and they downgrade our debt again, that's when you will see interest rates go up. mr. paulson also talked about the key to this whole thing is the economy, if that happens then you have a real risk of recession, and as you know the strength of the economy is clearly c-- >> could that vengeance be a positive vengeance and the

market goes after off to the races? >> it's not impossible. one of the things that stuck out for me. >> if they wait until 2013, what happens going into 2013? i think that's so irresponsible. >> i think if we don't have any movement before the end of this year, the market will call the bluff of the politicians and policy makers. they will really have to force the hand. markets start panicking when investors stop panicking. they will panic if politicians are not talking about this issue. >> so if we see rates spike, do you agree they could spike in a very, very abrupt sudden way and move higher quickly? >> i don't know if we get a huge return to this bond vigilante m vigilanteism. what else will you do? >> which is the comments he made about china -- >> right, that will be a consideration. you may not see that same type

of scope simply because everyone needs to own dollar based assets. >> let's go to the hear and now, it's really earnings. we will have microsoft after the bell and google after the bell. we'll talk more about those in a moment, but your sense right now of where corporate earnings are, where they're headed and what the guidance is. >> the key thing right now is that the amount of cash flow being derived is increasing. it tells you that corporate america and u.s. stocks are delivering organic growth. much of the growth we have seen since the bottom of 2009 was really about accounting maneuvers cost cutting and the like. therefore, i think investors right now are too keyed up on the actual growth rates. that's why stocks up up because they're real earnings are real earnings. >> so your best idea is what?

putting money into equities? >> yes, we love technology and industrials because they will benefit from this manufacturing renaissance. it will force investors and companies to come back and do business with american companies. >> we'll leave it there. brian back for the closing countdown. we have a market that is holding on to the gains down 40 points. >> and financials may be underperforming recently, but one name in that group is getting a lot of bullish attention from some of the world's most successful investors. >> two days away from the anniversary of dodd frank being signed into law? how is it going? coauthor of the bill barney frank will be with me today at 4:30 p.m., eastern. you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies

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welcome back, let's get to brian shactman with a update on

apple. >> we're always watching apple, right? web bush they report next tuesday, we're reiterating our stock. they think the ipad launch in china as a catalyst moving forward. it represents a 30% upside from here, up 1.5% on the day. >> private equity joined kkr getting into retail investing launching two funds. the stock is on a roll up 17% since the start of june. >> and it has a 7% dividend. that has not gone unnoticed from some of the world's most successful investors. it was a name that kept coming up when i moderated the best ideas panel at delivering alpha. >> last year at this time, lee picked apple, qual com, sally

mae up. >> i have enormous respect for jim, so -- [ laughter ] >> no, actually in my hedge fund i'm long two of your longs. >> thank you. >> i feel better already. >> isn't that interesting that the kkr kept coming up? you don't think of it as a individual investor vehicle, but they are launching. >> they have only been a publicly traded company for a few years. what a juicy yield, 8% just to put your money with them. >> everybody is looking for yield. everybody is trying to figure out where are the yields. dividend payers are constantly the topic of conversations. >> and based on their history,

they have been incredibly successful. >> i thought it was interesting that jim and lee both said that. so that's our financial stock that's outperforming the others. >> when we come back, we will be back with the closing countdown. >> google and microsoft due out with earnings numbers after the bell. we'll have the numbers and show you how the stocks react, back in a moment.

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we got about four minutes left to go in the trading session, and i can see the dow industrials up about 26 points, and i think the composite is up about 25 points as well. let's talk about a couple things after the bell today. that would be earnings from google, and the symptom moving up 2.5%. there is the three-month chart on google. i just asked for that out of interest, basically flat in that time. microsoft has been a pretty good performer over the last year or

so. over the last three months down 1%, and right now it's up about two thirds of a percent. one of the other stories we have been following all day, and that would be crude, look at west texas crude up nearly 3% today, back above $92 a barrel. it is down 9% from where it was, but today's close is the highest closing level since the month of may. brian belski, what do you think is next for oil? >> we think people have overreacted, and people are realizing the market is not melting down. >> but this has to be a worry, art, about what's going on in syria, the bombing yesterday of that tourist bus in europe, and these enflame fears, don't they?

>> yes. today, rising oil prices temporarily help the averages and that got us up, but the increase in the fears are not reflected in the treasury market so far and certainly not in the equity market. so if we make it through the weekend we'll see if europe reasserts. >> let's talk about microsoft and google. >> i think the key to both of those names is to continue to show signs of organic growth in the kind of quality earnings growth that investors are going to those names for overall within tech, too. >> it's a very interesting parlay there. you have microsoft coming out with it's own tablet, and google with it's android, and they're all facing off against apple. >> yes, apple is a first mover and it will be tough.

you think people would pile into it, but they feel if these giants pull something off it would be a problem. >> what is the talk on the floor here today? what do people feel as we go through this summer? >> there are multiple concerns, you can tell people are still considered we have almost no concerns. some of it is out of our hands. it's all about europe and geo politics. can we salvage them? >> there's so many things. >> we have been all over the world talking to investors and they're priced for armageddon so this market could go much higher. >> they're