18% in 2012. that will do it for us tonight on ""closing bell" we hope you will follow me on twitter. "fast money" begins right now. jobs still hard to come by. >> jobless claims moved up to 386,000 from a revised 350. i wouldn't be depressed about this. >> the rise in oil isn't going to help consumers but should you be dipping your toes in energy stocks? >> i'm going to start moving to the sidelines. it is absolutely a political circumstance rather than a fundamentally warranted circumstance. i suggest prices are likely to go lower. >> maybe we should fake it until we make it. >> no. don't say that. not even close. >> let me finish it and then you

can pat me on the back and say well done. >> i told david this. you have to visualize it to win it. >> tim is adding kfc to his portfolio while joe is cutting back on mcd's. this is "fast money." live from new york time's square it's sat -- no i'm in for melissa lee. we have revenue margins all beating street estimates. let us start with google. click add revenue was up more than expect td. >> i think that is a story when you look at play clicks. i think google was priced as it just needed it in line. we knew going in 30% of the revenue is coming from europe, the middle east and africa. that was going to be problematic. all they needed to do was give folks an in line.

it is not the type of stock that this year has been aggressively owned in terms of performance. folks really are not overloaded long on this name. it is a name that i think has further upside potential. >> is the google today the google of two or three years ago in terms of opportunity? >> no. it is not. i think people are coming around to that. that is why the stock is down 7% this year. still a great company. still great focus in the areas where they make money but they are so splintered that it makes some of us pause and it is why we are not as aggressive with the name. these were good numbers. 54% of the revenue coming overseas. the numbers look pretty good. >> i agree with these guys. the negative morosity around this company was very much overdone. they showed they made some of

the switch. youtube is helping out. i think the things keeping this cheap is the change in management over the last couple of years this is the latest i think in a mistake series where staying quiet and not telling us why and not being on this call i think is putting a corporate governance additional discount on this company. >> they just lost a key executive, marissa mayer leaving google going to their competitor of sorts, yahoo. you are not nervous that she will engineer a turn and thus steal some of the ad search revenue away. >> loss of a top manager should be something people are thinking about. it is the management instability at the top even though the same core guys shuffling seats and not talking about it. that is what people are worried

about it. >> we have birthday wish s. i want to wish brian a happy birthday. brian sullivan. >> it is my birthday today. >> happy birthday. >> i am 41 years young. i have 3/4 of my life still ahead of me. >> that is a big day. thursday night in new york. >> 41 shots of milk. >> fade the move out. i think google could trade up to 6.20. the initial move has been one of fate be it on the down side or upside. paid clicks absolutely a good number. the quarter wasn't that outstanding. >> sounds like nobody here is screaming by on google based on the results. >> i think when you look at the technology space and corporate earnings that appear to be coming in not as negative as the

street had feared, sales are not going to contract as significantly as we fear look at what you are getting with san disk. you are getting excellent results there. maybe production isn't as strong versus demand. >> the mobile side of it. that's what i'm talking about. >> look at the headlines. let's not forget about google getting into the hardware business. let's go to mike on the options desk. >> i think it is interesting there is legitimacy being concerned about them getting into hardware. they explored where they try to sell hardware. if you take a look at the company it is still trading exceptionally cheap. we have companies trading at less than 11 times. i think that is probably one of the reasons why there was a lot of negativity going into this number. we recommended calls into the number.

>> john ford has been monitoring the google conference call. what have you heard? any big surprises on that conference call? >> no big surprises. i would describe it as treading water. google saying that they had a big currency impact, that growth would have been stronger without it. another couple of numbers. one is that core google if you don't include motorola up by 1,200 employees they are above 64,000 employees total. analysts are asking about the impact of voice technology on their overall business if that is drawing more people. also and i know we flashed it up on the screen. google saying clearly everyone should expect some changes at motorola when asked about when that might be. you have to give the team time to work and figure out how they want to move forward. nothing to announce quite yet.

>> we have to get to microsoft but i want to ask if they mentioned anything about larry page and the mysterious illness he had? >> he has not come up. >> remember he was sick. >> why would i remember that? >> he missed some events. he couldn't speak. >> it was unfortunate. >> literally keeping quiet. >> none of us on the desk are offering it. when you look at the technology space itself there are other places if we are to expect that earnings are going to be betterer you want to go. there are other technology names that are going to work better in this environment and give you more potential. >> it is the same problem that facebook is having with mobile. more and more of their clicks are going to mobile with google. it is harder and harder to monetize those. until they find a way to effectively do that but say people are looking and buying that is going to be a big

problem and hardware, as well. let's go to another big tech name, microsoft shares are higher after topping earnings estimates although revenue was a slight miss. microsoft shaking off this quarter the results of the horrific acquisition. you have windows 8 coming down the road here. you look eager. you have a view. >> always eager. i will tell you a couple of things. >> these pink shirts are making me nervous. >> it tells you how confident the men are here. it is something that people expected and a better show when you consider how much people are looking for windows 8. when you look at the unearned revenue which is a leading indicator 21.9 versus 19.4 billion not so bad. in a world where these guys have catalysts to the upgrade cycle. the corporate spending was much better in terms of upgrades. this is a cheap stock, a stock

that is paying a dividend and a stock people need to own. >> the revenues weren't there. my shirt is purple, by the way, not that it should matter. >> fuchsia. >> lavender. >> microsoft is pushing towards the 33 level. nice dividend plus valuations are still reasonable. >> so what do microsoft investors think about tonight's results? joining us on the fast line with reaction is kim forest. great to chat with you again. would you buy more microsoft stock based on these numbers? >> absolutely and i have to say two things. our fund isn't 1.2 billion. it is a lot less than that. our assets under management are just 2. we are very happy we have owned microsoft and collecting dividends. now it looks like this is the year for microsoft or at least

the beginning of the year for microsoft. we are delighted with the unearned revenue number because that shows that people are willing to buy into microsoft and we expect this to grow over the year. >> sorry about the screw up. i gave you extra pass there. my favorite irish pub has a beer that says free beer tomorrow. you never get the beer. that seems like microsoft a bit. you are talking about it like this is the year. investors have been waiting for the year for microsoft since about 2001. >> absolutely. really i think this year is really the year. i say that laughingly. windows 8 looks great. they just came out with a new version of office that is optimized for windows 8. that had been a huge question mark over the company. i have played around with it the last day or so.

i am an investor but also a very cynical investor. it looks like a really great product. microsoft has done all of the basic blocking and tackling now for these products. and i think they have a good story to tell. >> i agree with tim and you in terms of the further appreciation potential for microsoft. there are many catalysts out there. when you look inside what is driving earnings for microsoft it is the enterprise base and not the consumer side. now you bring forth microsoft office. is there anything inside office that is going to get the consumer excited about it out there reaching or small businesses which has not been a revenue driver? >> i think the small businesses are going to be drawn into microsoft because they are coming out more with a subscription plan to deliver this stuff online as opposed to making you put down 500 bucks from the get go.

that is always a good idea to let people pay over time. by doing that it also makes you beholden to them because you are not going to transfer your documents and spreadsheets and everything else to something new. i think that is really, really good for them. i'm terrible at predicting what a regular consumer would buy. i haven't looked at this company for years, looking at it as serving regular consumers. i think they have to make windows 8 cool enough so that business people won't be upset about using it and they won't long for that really hip apple product. windows 8 will be cool enough and the i.t. department will be excited. >> we know consumers are buying ipads. he said he is shorting hp. he noted that apple shipped more ipads in the fourth quarter than the biggest pc maker shipped pcs.

what if the pc -- what if it continues to slow down? isn't that terrible? >> two things. first of all, again, i don't think we are going to be using ipads to watch each other quarterly documents. it just doesn't work. i have a tablet and i am frustrated using the stupid keyboard. it is just not as productive as i want to be. it is great for viewing stuff but terrible for writing stuff. i think you have to understand that the ipad or tablets in general are just a new device. of course they are getting more market share. >> well said, as always. thank you very much. >> thank you. happy birthday. >> thank you. next we are going to meet a man putting 40% of his portfolio into europe. he will make the case for european stocks. plus crude indicators. oil rising above 90 bucks a

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it's not all about technology. chipotle mexican grill down. >> they miss on revenue and comps were worse than expected. questions have recruiting, promoting managers and an update on the buy one get one free promotion. these analysts are really going soft on the company right now. i will share a few things. comps they said began to slow in late april and stayed slow in may and june so that may trend to third quarter.

they are maintaining. in terms of pricing and cost because we have the drought and income costs. it says there are no plans for price increases this year. the recent weather should put pressure on costs moving forward and into 2013. the year to date labor costs also down. their tax rate 39%. that is up year over year. the last thing i want to point out the call is still on going. federal investigation into their potentially employing undocumented workers there is a new lawyer on the case so they think it may delay the case even more. no formal charges have filed. >> all of these issues and they ask about recruiting and promotions. >> the buy one, get one. >> we don't just listen, we listen. >> i will get back on the call if anything substantial happens i will let you know.

>> just want to call attention to the breaking news banner. marissa mayer will get a base salary of $1 million. let's move from mexican food to yahoo to oil. crude oil having the best streak since october of 2009. prices hitting a high today. is it a bullish indicator for stocks. tim, i can't imagine it is bullish for everybody. >> you look around the world and there are countries majoring. i would be shorting turkey and india. the point is that oil prices and the price of crude have been a very much leading indicator for equities in a trading range in a place where we have not been challenged by the price of oil to take down the global economy. i am not saying that oil is rallying for fundamental demand.

when oil is going higher like this you see equities follow. look at the dollar index which has not taken a new leg hire. the euro has made up a lot of ground. they tell you about global risks. so if you see this rally in oil i think it has a ways to go and i think it bodes well for equities testing their highs this year. >> i like them too. we are seeing a ton of money flow into energy stocks. day by day every day it is a different energy stock but the consistency is there. philip 66 today just to name one where we are seeing fast money flowing in there. big institutional buying. block trades and the rest. >> we learned from recent history stocks and oil can both go up at the same time. let's bring in addison armstrong. he is a cnbc contributor. how do we explain the big run

over the last few days in crude oil? >> i think a lot of it has been technical. we broke through the 50 day moving average on monday. a lot of momentum came in behind that. now you have the market really touching through the top. you have the 14-day rsi near 70. starting to look a little bit overdone. >> where do you see us headed? would you short oil, wait for it to drop and go long again or put on a longer term short? >> i wouldn't necessarily short it here. i think that there is definitely more room to the upside. if this technical momentum can be maintained. if you are going to have the dollar index under pressure and indications of more stimulus coming out of china and doing all they can it is kind of hard to fight this move in oil. i will tell you that the

fundamentals really aren't there. when you get oil above $100 a barrel what is that going to do to the outlook on equities. the u.s. consumer can't take oil at the that price. >> i guess the country to watch or region to watch is fujira. it is one of the seven uae emirates. it is out of the peninsula. the reason it is important is because they just opened up the pipeline that can essentially take 60 or some percent of the oil around which neuters iran's power over the shipping lane. do we need to pay as much attention to iran now that we have the pipeline? >> it's 150,000 barrels a day which is not a small amount of oil. it's definitely something that

is going to sort of do an end run around what the iranians are trying to do. i think bullish traders are going to -- >> one is in saudi arabia. there are things being done to try to counter this whole iranian fear. >> absolutely. and let's talk about iraq who is up to 2.5 million barrels a day. they have the pipeline going out of the north. they are trying to do things again. that hasn't been done since the first gulf war. all the sort of physical infrastructure that can be mustered in the middle east to forego having to put oil on tankers is all in play. >> can you wish him a happy birthday. >> have a great one.

>> thank you. >> come on. we are going to do pops and drops? i just dropped some knowledge. >> did you realize we were flying trade school banner under your name. we have to give fundamentals of not trading at all. expiration is tomorrow on the futures contract. that is a lot of what is going on. you have geopolitical risks. you have israel blaming the iranians. what is the tradeoff of all of it? today you see bhi rising. short trade in those names are over. stay with the refiners. wti and brint is going to continue to put out. alj, westin refining, philip 66. >> free beer tomorrow. thank you very much. time for pops and drops, the

movers that you might have missed. pop, a name joe loves. nxp semi conductors popping. >> when you look at iphone 5 and the potential for nfc technology guy knows what that is. digital wallets. they are going to put the chips in it. it has been a lousy trade so far. i have recommended it and it has been awful. >> pop is a company here in times square. giant flagship walgreens popping 12% on a deal. >> the deal with express scripts. the fact that these guys have been fighting and so forth and the fact that now they are playing nice is really good for them. it is really bad for cvs and the short term. >> from dr. jay to dr. copper. free port mcmoran.

>> this is a stock where people are looking at the price of copper. we stay long. >> we are going to get guys drop in a second. more news i believe on marissa mayer. >> that's right. it turns out here offer letter is out that includes information on compensation on going through it now. bottom line from what i can see base salary $1 million a year which they spell out as $83,000 per month. her target percentage is 200%. maximum of 400% of the base salary for bonus. and then in terms of annual equity awards it looks like $12

million worth of stock, half of that in restricted stock units. those rsus i haven't found the maturity date on that yet. she wouldn't have to pay up front for and the stock options she would have to pay up front for. these documents are long and a little bit complicated. i will give you more details in a bit. base salary $1 million. bonus 200 to 400% of that and $12 million worth of stock on top of that. >> and she has her google money, as well. wealthy and getting richer. >> they just walked right over there. >> birthday boy, move on. >> whoever took the under on me reaching 41 your money no good. i'm still here. the microsoft conference call about to get underway. we are listening in for breaking news. why all the financials are not created equal.

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welcome back to "fast money" live at the nasdaq market site. specialty value shop five below up 62%. investors are not afraid of the market after facebook's disastrous i.p.o. francis gascons is president and editor of ipo desktop. before the names to keep an eye on are you shocked by the strong performance of a store whose whole business model is less than $5? >> i was pleased to see the pop because it gets rid of the facebook back wash. i expected it to go up. it is a lesson in specialty retailing. when people have a concept that

works and people can't stay out of the stores they will grow. it's overprized at 62%. what they are doing is setting up a secondary. when you see these things pop what i recommend to people is they don't jump in right now because according to all the valuation metrics it is a little high. there is a scaracy of eternal growth in the economy. it is hard to find pockets that are good. there is one coming next week. the other savlings are specialty restaurant. tomorrow there is kayak software in demand. they postponed their ipo may 30th. and then paloalto networks. the ipo market is really alive

and well. >> it is interesting you mentioned something about secondaries, kayak and splunk. we see the secondaries more and more. do we have to just avoid a lot of ipos because of the secondary risk that seems to pop up so much? >> i think splunk is a good case. it is around 29 or so. what morgan stanley did is made a deal with insiders to free up the stock sooner than they said in the perspectives and they are doing that. i would not -- when these things really pop i would kind of stay away from buying on pop if you like the stock look for the secondary and it probably will be less price. >> bottom line paloalto networks name you like?

>> it is doing great. they do a secondary at a lower price. >> thank you very much, sir. appreciate it. coming up google shares are climbing after hours. this is after the internet giant posted better than expected results. we are going to get the street view on new numbers. and investing on fear. we will watch a manager who is putting 40% of his portfolio into europe. what he sees maybe that others do not. "fast money" will be right back. . today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before. a steadfast commitment to help you achieve your financial goals in life. that's the power of the right advisor. that's merrill lynch. according to ford, the works fuel saver package could

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looking yet again at chip otle. there has been a significant increase in takeout meaning they sell less drinks when people dine in. it is just a general slow down. if they see the slow down continue and commodity input costs rise they say they will not change what they are doing. they are not going to make changes to the menu and discount or rush to bring new menu items to light. they are going to keep doing what they are doing.

maybe that is more of the drag. i think when a growth company has revenues down and comps down that is a drag on the name. >> great point. thank you very much. i'm reading every day about how these droughts causing corn prices to go crazy. flour tortillas. and they are saying they are not going to raise prices. >> if you look margins were actually better in this quarter. >> backward looking. >> it is still decent numbers. this is what is happening. valiation catches up to stocks like this. with decreasing comps it becomes a problem. at a certain point -- >> jack and the box. >> for a while that is all i talked about. we talked about it for a while.

>> jack is up 32% this year. guy is exactly spot on here. this is a technical break down. it has not been below the 200-day moving average. analyst price 4.55. >> jack in the box shout out. let's get back to shares of google popping after hours. company second quarter report let's turn to analyst live on the fast line. the market likes it. it is up after hours. i don't know what the volume is. the stock is higher. do you like what you heard? >> basically this is a cross your fingers quarter to see how messy it was with the motorola integration. the reality was the numbers actually made the number on the nose as far as a nongap number. when you look within the core business it slowed down in the u.s. the u.s. is up 20% year after

year. international is up 22%. and then if you look at the core earnings it was up. that is a pretty attractive price for a company growing at 20%. >> two things. one, i read your note. you said 850 basis points. do you think this is something we should disregard. they are certainly intending to do a lot of business on the ground. and then guy would like to have you wish brian sullivan a happy birthday. >> give him a shout out. >> happy birthday brian is what we are waiting for. >> happy birthday, brian. i appreciate the sentiment. >> there was a real question there. >> so the question on the currency. currency matters from a p.e. standpoint.

at the end of the day you don't add currency back to earnings. should the multiple go up or down. the way we look at it is based on the report google should not go down. it should be stable or going up. and they are managing a business such that the earnings number is not going to be a short fall in our opinion for the year. so we still need to run motorola through our numbers. this company does not give guidance. i think it will probably take people more than a day to figure out what the impact is. motorola made a few hundred million dollars last year. they did break out kind of the severance and all of that. the bottom line i think is you have a stock that is growing 20% trading at 12 times earnings. that is too cheap and you probably had some short covering after the close because the results were not disappointing. >> thank you and thank you for the birthday wishes.

we'll see you again. thank you. a company that helped start chipotle, mcdonalds getting set to report their earnings. how are options traders positioning themselves heading into monday's mcdonald's numbers? >> the most active were the ones expiring tomorrow. the second most active were the ones that expire next week. i think we were talking about google relatively cheap. mcdonalds i don't find as cheap. the options are exceptionally cheap and were paying only about 38 cents deciding to spend a small amount of money. it is interesting because the stock barely moves on earnings. >> another play on mcdonald was.

arco the largest franchisee of mcdonalds has gotten very cheap. this stock usually trades around 35. it is mcdonald's but latin america. >> guys selling mcdonalds. >> not selling out of all of it. in june we highlighted this as trade of the day. we entered mcdonalds as a counter playoff of the european situation being resolved. selling out of half of the mcdonald's position i think is the right thing to do here holding on to the other half and raising to 90 bucks. tim? no? >> we were chatting. >> i'm writing down what he had to say. at the end of the day mcdonald's is not a cheap spot. guy thinks mr. skinner is the

best in the business. >> fan of the show. >> i think if we have a television camera outside of the nasdaq we'll know what notes they are writing. >> every friday at 5 p.m. tonight at 7:00 on nbc sports catch sports biz fantastic half an hour sports program hosted by me this week. coming up -- i'm tired today. call it the europe fear play. we are going to hear from the manager investing hundreds of millions of dollars into europe. >> happy birthday, brian. >> happy birthday. >> by the way. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills,

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wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the company's bottom line, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby and good night" ] ♪ af-lac ♪ aflac [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. [ yawning sound ] europeans investing in really good european stocks are up 10, 11% just year to date. 30% over the past three years. these numbers are stunning. >> other than specific special opportunities, specific ways that we can make transitional financial investments with our

down sides protected at the current time in europe i would like to keep our cash in our pockets. >> clearly investors going back and forth about europe as uncertainty continues to weigh on the markets. but your next guest is seeing some solid opportunities. so solid he has 40% of his fund invested in europe. joining us now is matthew fine. i guess the first question i would ask you is, are you insane? 40% into europe when the rest of the world is calling for doom in europe. >> happy birthday, brian. i don't think there is any reason to be bullish at the macrolevel. there are serious issues in the corporate sector and the financial sector and serious issues to work out. most of the measures contemplated as solutions are stop gap measures that don't

address the long term issues. i don't think there is any reason to be wildly bullish. i t the is tremendous amount of opportunity and investing in extremely high quality global companies. >> the fear is creating opportunity for you. >> absolutely and it is a point of pride amongst fund managers to see how little they can own in europe and that is why you are asking me if i'm crazy. >> the weakness in the euro is going to give a lot of exporters the same boost the exporters got when we were driving the dollar down maybe not intentionally. exporters out of germany. to me this is part of the story. >> absolutely. i think it is a poorly kept secret that germany is relishing in the valuation of the euro. dimeler export about 75% out of germany. >> you can like some of the names even if you have a fundamental belief that europe

would have a continental recession. >> western europe is in a recession. >> germany not yet. >> you are talking about 22% unemployment in spain, greece, western europe is in a recession. that is what we are dealing with. in the case of dimeler you are dealing with an extremely high quality company. you have about 10 million euros on the balance sheet. so rock solid balance sheet. the company is not going anywhere. >> how about deutsche bank and/or bmw? >> two completely different companies. >> slightly. >> you can look across the european banking sector and find the entire sector trading between 20 and 30%. we are not buying any of them. we can't understand the asset side of the balance sheet. there is way too much leverage and wood to chop.

bmw is an absolutely fine company and has a rock solid balance sheet like dai ml er. bmw has walked on water for years. it is hard for me to imagine them operating better. >> we look at europe obviously you are seeing high end retailers having troubles. are those names you feel there is opportunity given the thesis you present today? >> not really just because the stock prices are down doesn't mean they are cheap by our metrics. on a relative basis they may be much cheaper than they were. clearly they have been riding a chinese luxury wave. a kemp of those companies have come to market recently and we are not doing anything there. >> a very rational bull case

there. you like dai ml er. another one is cement. that company is a greek cement manufacturer. it is a global cement manufacturer. it has less than 20% of the profits coming out of greece. the sleeper is the large u.s. business. >> matthew fine of third avenue. thank you for dealing well with this unruly crew. >> my pleasure, guys. >> thank you very much. next up on fast we are just minutes away from revealing what is behind this curtain. do we have any willy wonka music. wizard of oz? our trade of the day is next. you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies

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welcome back to "fast money." a little more detail on yahoo ceo marissa mayer's pay. she is going to basically make $1 million a month in cash for working this year and about $4 million worth of stock and basically an iou for more than

$18 million worth of stock she was going to get next year. >> thank you very much. time now, america, to reveal our trade of the day. tim, what is behind the curtain? >> yum brand is a company that executed on all cylinders. their numbers told us weaker on margin. that goes away on the second half of the year. you buy this week. technically it is a chart you can buy. it is not cheap but at 18 times earnings next year this company will earn the multiple. >> your first move tomorrow when we return. more "fast money" up next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the 5-day moving average just crossed above the 20.

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