tv Wall Street Journal Rpt. CNBC July 22, 2012 7:30pm-8:00pm EDT
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. bernanke's blues, earnings clues and the market news. we have it all. where should you put your money now? yahoo! ends the search for a ceo again. why its choice is a big deal and how it could impact women in the workplace. the perks of the park, the reinvitization of new york central park and the economic impact on the city and why it is important to other cities. the wall street journal report begins right now. here is a look what's making news as we head into a new week on wall street. bernanke was anything but jolly when he testified before congress. mr. bernanke offered a down beat view of the economy, said it was
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time for congress to enact fiscal policy. he did not rule out any more moves by the fed but did not promise any either. the markets ignored the chairman's dim view and mostly focused on earnings throughout the week which in general were better than expected. by thursday stocks had a 30-day winning streak and then stocks fell on friday. ge the largest conglomerate and economic bellwether beat expectations of $3.1 billion for the quarter. among financials, citi surpassed analyst predictions as did bank of america and goldman sachs and morgan stanley fell short. in tech land intel beat estimates, ibm as well, and raised expectations. ebay, google and microsoft all beat expectations and microsoft did post the first ever loss, revenue a bit light as well. mixed housing news. housing starts hit a four year high in june driven by a jump in is single-family homes and rising by nearly 7% but existing home sales fell more than 5% although prices were higher. analysts say prices rose because
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there were fewer distressed sales. the markets aren't quite so glum these days looking past europe and the fiscal cliff in the united states to earnings season which is in full gear right now. which is more important and how do you invest in this environment? joining me is j.p. morgan's chief u.s. equity strategist. what's your take on the earnings season so far? tell me how your clients with being here and what people are doing with their money these days? >> clients are really nervous about earnings because they were hearing europe slowing, china, big profile announcements and it turned out to be a lot better than expected. if you look at bottom line numbers, about 60% are beating on earnings. that's a really good statistic. only 40% are beating on revenues which means companies are not making revenue targets but they're beating on margin. >> why is that they're not making revenue targets? things are slowing down? >> things slowed, yeah. >> do you still see the kind of risk adversity on the part of investors today? what are they doing?
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>> absolutely. investors, i was just in boston early this week. they are very, very cautious because they look at europe. they don't think things have improved. they see the fiscal cliff as a big topic of discussion now and then china data has been disappointing. they're very nervous and then frustrated because the stock market has continued to really push towards new highs. >> interesting, even though the back drop is somewhat weak, the market is seeing some momentum here. how do you think the market trades the rest of the year? what are you expecting? >> i think something that is a really good leading indicator the last 20 years has always called the direction of the market right is what's going on with high grade and high yield spreads. in other words, what the bond markets are doing. they are acting really well. they started to rally in june and july and these are corporate bonds, and that tells me equity markets rally to year end. >> everybody is looking for yield. i guess that's why corporate bonds are doing well, also dividend payers doing well. >> exactly. that's right. the market is looking for proxies of bond. i want to make sure i can get cash out of this market. kind of surprising since early
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june the best performing group is the energy sector, a stealth rally. >> energy has been doing well even though oil is off the highs. >> that's right. oil has really seen a big fall since the start of the year and that's one reason why energy was the worst performing group year-to-date, but we have had a $10 bounce in oil. i think maybe on some the market seeing better growth in the second half but if you look at energy stocks versus the last ten years, they're about 10% cheap versus oil. i think that's why they're bouncing as well. they got too cheap. >> interesting. where are the weak spots would you say in terms of earning right now? i know china is slowing. you're traveling a lot. europe is a mess. how do you want to be exposed with these uncertainties? >> i think that it is probably fair to say that the u.s. is better than expected on earnings because u.s. financials are doing really well. u.s. domestically oriented health care, but europe companies and china companies are having big problems. so i would really say focus on companies that sell to the u.s. >> do you think at some point we switch back to worrying about
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the fiscal reality that is we're facing in this country and there will be a resolution of any kind before the elections or are we waiting until after the election to deal with the fiscal cliff, to deal with some of these other related issues? >> it is an enormous frustration. we know washington hearing everybody but at the end of the day the way washington works they probably won't do anything until after the election. the market will really have to struggle with this. one thing we're realizing, maybe everyone is over emphasizing the risk of recession from a fiscal cliff. it only happens if washington let's the cuts expire, sequestration happen and do nothing the entire 2013 fiscal year which is low probability. >> yes. what about bernanke? of course the chairman of the federal reserve testified before congress this week and offered a down beat view again of the economy, so that sentiment has weakened and we could see things worsen, but no real significant action that they promised
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although do you think we'll see qe3 or sigh stimulus from the fed? >> the call is a 50% chance in september, so in other words the august meeting unlikely, september maybe, but the fed does have to surprise us as well. i think giving us too much insight into its thought process doesn't allow for surprise. >> would the market rally on that? do you think some of that is already priced in? >> unfortunately there is sort of a knee jerk reaction. the market tends to do risk on when they see qe. i think it is long-term negative. now we have to unwind further balance sheet expansion. >> we have seeing a pickup in housing. is that fair to say? >> it is very visible now. >> very visible. it appears we finally have in fact bottomed and what are the implications of that? what does that tell us? >> it is something we're all going to under estimate. with he have to remember housing is touches everybody because we all own a home, but it is also incredibly labor intensive. it is the most labor intensive activity in the economy. 250,000 homes creates a million jobs and already in q2 housing
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is accounting for one third of gdp growth. it is less than 1% of the economy. it is like a little ant lifting a human. it is carrying 30 times its weight right now. >> what do you want to do from an investment standpoint in the face of all of this? >> i want to say i want to bet against what the market is doing. the market right now is believing the rally can't last. most people think the market is going to hit new lows. they're buying defensive stocks, so i think i want to be buying cyclicals with u.s. exposure. i want to buy energy stocks, and i actually like financials as well. >> you do? because of valuations? >> their valuations are so low, trading below tangible book and they're the most leveraged u.s. housing. >> and what about the fact that they're so also exposed to sort of headline risk? anything coming out of europe impacts the banks. anything about the j.p. morgan trading loss or the barclays scandal, anything like that impacts the whole sector. >> it is a really big problem. the headlines aren't pretty. the one bet you can probably make is most investors probably
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discounted it. nobody wants to touch a bank because of what you said and they know the links to europe so you don't think it is not priced to those stocks >> great to have you on the program. >> thank you so much, tom lee joining us from j.p. morgan. up next yahoo!'s big search is over, the company naming a new ceo. what it could mean to the glass ceiling and women in the workplace and why it is a story of great expectations in more ways than one. >> i am coming to you from the middle of central park and we'll tell you about a billion dollar impact on the park.
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women in the workplace? joining me is kara swisher of all things d and author gail cmac. how big of a deal is this? 37-year-old woman being named the ceo of a troubled company, we'll get to the fact she is pregnant as well which i think is terrific. is this a major glass ceiling event? >> it is important. there are very few women running companies, ceos, genie ra many of ibm and meg whitman of hp and cheryl sandberg but there is few women in top positions of power. >> why do you think they went for marisa myers? >> she is a star. she is a big name, very well known, gotten herself out there publicly and a lot of articles and things like that so i think yahoo! is going for a very splashy choice and competent well. >> on top of that marissa mayer
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is pregnant as you are and congratulations and the board said the pregnancy was not a big issue. i love that. is this a sign of changing times? >> i thought it was an incredible sign of progress and the fact the board said it was a non-issue and she and her family worked it out i think makes a very public statement about a very private matter. >> i don't know. i was just talking to kara during the commercial break and saying you could have said, okay, i understand if yahoo! is saying, well, she is pregnant and now is not the right time. we don't want to put a woman in charge knowing she will be out for six months but it wasn't an issue they said. >> and she worked it out. she said i will take a couple weeks and be working which are all very private decisions she worked out with her family and her board and it is amazing how many people are continuing to comment on the fact some people running headlines is her pregnancy going to interfere with yahoo!'s running and she should really be taking maternity leave. i mean, she is an extraordinary person and in unusual circumstances who made it work for her family and her board and
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i don't see why all the pre and post natural quarterbacking is necessary. >> it is a great thing actually. i agree with you. kara, you mentioned the other ceos we know of, ibm, meg whitman at hp. is it slightly better in terms of diversity? i can't think of four women in another sector. can you? >> there is a lot of consumer products companies but, no, it is still not good. years ago i wrote a piece the men and no women of facebook which was before cheryl got there and i wrote about the boards of web 2.0 companies having very few women on them, so it is still an issue. it is a very tolerant industry and everything else but they still need to do a lot better in terms of bringing to the top leadership positions a lot of women just below. >> the other issue i guess, gail, is that some people say it
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is a sacrifice. it is also a choice. women choose to do different things and have lots of balls in the air. >> and i think there is a question of who is funding companies. some people will talk about how there aren't enough women on the vc side so you don't see a lot of companies growing at the level you do necessarily with men in companies, and i think women are choosing to do all kinds of different things but there is a whole generation as kara was saying of women who are right below the c suite, and i think having marissa mayer up there really does show there are more in the pipeline and more ready to come and actually is possible. >> and making their own schedules. cheryl sandberg, the coo of facebook leaves every day at 5:30 and gets home to her family. >> not every day. most nights. >> do you think this reignites the debate over work/life balance for women? >> gosh, i think she is just trying to do her own thing and make the circumstances work for
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her. there is no question that so many people are looking for solutions and answers that any time a first anything, right, a first pregnant ceo and this high profile industry comes up that people will be watching and judging which i think is a shame because she is trying to do something extraordinary and make it work for her own family and beyond that i don't think she is trying to make any kind of public policy statement. >> right. i agree with you. everybody wants to judge everything. kair a let's talk about the job at hand. what does marissa mayer have to do to turn around yahoo!? they've had five ceos in the last year. come on. struggling for identity. do they need a marketer, an engineer, a sales woman? is she up to the task? >> i don't know. on the pregnancy thing, she did does have a husband that can take care of the baby, too. >> good point. >> it is a very difficult job and one of the problems is that they're painting her as a super woman. steve jobs, coming in and reviving a company.
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steve jobs was a unique person and founder of the company. very different situation. this is a company in great distress with a lot of problems and internet companies, the young kill their old kind of thing. sometimes they just die like a myspace and sometimes they have troubles like aol, so the question is can she create innovation in a company that's not been innovative for many years and struggled with management? >> it is interesting that you bring up founders. i agree. it is a different approach. a founder will look at his or her business much differently than someone who is a hired hand. >> and getting a lot of money by the way and it is not a question of competent. this person really does have what it takes. she has the smarts. she has the drive. she is certainly aggressive. the question is how good can she be to revive this thing? what can she do? can they create a magical unicorn? very difficult, especially with the examine he is from google and apple and amazon and everything else. >> it is all of that execution. good to see you.
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thank you so much. we'll see you soon. by the way, cnbc that produce this is program and yahoo! have a business alliance to share and co-produced editorial comment. up next the 150-year-old economic engine central to mant island and what the city parks mean to the local economy in your town. take a look at how the stock market ended the week. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] before you take it on your road trip... we take it on ours. this summer put your family in an exceptionally engineered mercedes-benz now for an exceptional price during the summer event. but hurry, this offer ends july 31st. stay in the moment sanya.
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welcome back. the rec tang swath in of greep in the largest city is a playground and enterprise. it was the first landscaped public park in the united states. today it brings a billion to the big apple. >> people are really starting to understand the importance of parks on the economy. central park is a great example. we have the greatest hotels. we have the greatest museums, the real estate value, the restaurants, everything that is the best in new york city and i think in the world is right around central park. >> and you're measuring it at a billion dollars impact. >> easily. >> how do you get to a billion dollars. >> you look at the economic impact on what we like to call on the real estate around the park, you know, if you take a ten-minute walk of central park, it is a $17 billion lift to that real estate because the park is here. >> you have real estate taxes. you have just the idea that
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there is tourism attracting people. >> 40 million people visit central park every year. there is no place like that in the world. >> close to $400 million annually in economic activity from events, concessions, and nearly 4,000 jobs. it is generated by the 843 acre that is serve as new york's front yard, central park also grows more than $700 million in municipal tax revenue, a value close to the total annual cost of the entire park system. you have been here 27 years. take us back 30 years and tell us how things have changed here. >> when i was going to school in 1980 we came to central park, had to do an exercise on design, came by turtle bond just below us, filled with garbage, and came up to this beautiful castle completely closed and covered with graffiti. >> in the 1970s and the 1980s people may not have wanted to come into the park. >> they actually didn't. tourists did not come into the park. when i started they would walk
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up and say is it safe to go in? >> the central park con serve sigh invested nearly $6 million. >> it truly is a model of prub and private partnerships. how does that work? >> in some respects we're just a contractor to the city. the city is asking us to maintain and restore the park for the city of new york and what's interesting in our model we actually have to raise the vast majority of the money, 85% of our $42 million year budget really comes from people that live around the park. it is really people that support the park, corporations and foundations and the city only gives about 15% of the annual budgets. >> a community supported green space that makes money for its hometown was just part of the effect hoped for by new york's first parks commissioner, frederick law ohmstead in 1860. >> ohmstead when created the park really wanted it to be for the workers of new york city, the people that couldn't get
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away. they wanted a adirondacks or catskills in new york city. if you get off the beaten path, you would have no idea you're in new york city. >> these steps are really tight. this is so beautiful. amazing. >> it is one of the great new york city views that not many people get to take advantage of. i am always shocked they never have been to the belvedere castle. it is a beautiful view in italian and when you go back 170 years ago, this was nothing but just a landscape. everything you see in central park is completely man made. every tree had to be brought in. all the soil had to be broad in. the only thing ohmstead and fox really used were the giant rock out crops of manhattan ships and everything was built around that. >> what's the most expensive part of the maintenance of the park? what would peel be surprised at? >> at the end of the day we don't own anything, don't capitalize anything. our greatest asset is the people that work in the park. we have over 35 statues in the park and every one is different
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and all of those have to be maintain and had taken care of. people come into the park to see the statues and see the trees and people come in the park just to see the bridges and arches. this is a really neat restoration project we did a few years ago. it is oak bridge. >> what causes the most headaches, bikers going too fast? >> it is going from 12 million visitors a year 25, 30 years ago to 40 million. i think somewhat we created a monster but it is a good monster. >> thanks to doug and the central work conserve an sigh. up next we'll take a look at the news the upcoming week that will have an impact on your money and who is america's "top chef"? the recipe for success can spell a whole lot of green.
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check out the website wsjr dot cnbc.com and follow me on twitter and google plus. a look at the stories in the week ahead that may move the markets and impact your money. second quarter earnings reports coming from mcdonald's, at&t, dupont, boeing, as well as 3m, caterpillar, chevron, exxon mobil and merck. on wednesday new home sales numbers for the last month and on friday it is the first reading of second quarter gross domestic product. gdp. broad ers mesh of the health of the u.s. economy and typically a market mover and the 2012 summer olympics will kick off in london. finally today he grew up hoping to be a soccer star. when an injury cut short his career he had to change gears
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and all told gordan ramsey hasn't done so badly. he took top spot in the survey of the "top chef"s with an empire that includes 24 restaurants around the world, tv shows, cook books, ramsey had an income of $38 million last year and he passed rachael ray at 25 million and wolfgang puck at 20 million and paula dean at 17 million. a real taste of wealth and profits. that will do it for us today. thank you so much for being with me. next week join me my guests include neil barofsky. keep it here where wall street meets main street. have a great weekend, everybody. i will see you next weekend. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote.
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