morning. down 27 points today. apple is down about 5%. that is it for us tonight. thank you so much for being with me. hope you will follow me. don't go anywhere. fast money begins right now. >> let's talk apple this morning. we are expecting solid numbers from apple. >> apple beat by 10%. this will be an all time record second quarter earnings. because you're worried about a five% dezin. >> i am going into this with a bullish outlook. >> people are still waiting for a new product. i'm not going to stay place your

line in the sand but i'm not so convinced they will have a blow out number. >> let's get to the earnings of this quarter and that is earnings of apple. >> this is a classic example of what is going to happen in the near term and what do you do with it for the longer term. when you look for the next quarter, the iphone figure is going to be worse. you will probably see 22 to $24 million. we will continue to lag in anticipation of the iphone 5. you want to look forward to the

december and march quarter. you are looking at them. you will then go to the iphone that has been launched in china. you will get figures there. the price of apple stock is going get lower. i am long. there is a very good value. i am not going to get out of it. i'm going to look for ads. six months from now you will be reporting iphone figures that are historic. >> apple investors will want to believe that this decline is because of pent up demand for the iphone. you can say that all the units missed the quarter will be red through into sales. at the same time it is a different story. this is a macro story. it is a slow down and a pull back in consumer spending. what's your concern there? >> well, you know, i am long the stock. so i don't like to see it down but i'm not that worried.

it will be coming down in the next two quarters or so. i don't know that one quarter data will really tell us whether this is a macro trend or a realization of their own future sales. i also think that this valuation, you know, it's not as if we are looking at something like a buffalo wild wings. >> right. >> it's a very different kind of story. >> it is happening as we speak. >> everything that has been said is that these guys have 57% of sales in iphones. the i pod is a big deal. to me what is exciting is their emerging markets growth. that is what i do all day long. and, when i look at where apple sales have gone in the last five years, 7% international five years ago and you're now at 23%. that number is going significantly higher. that is without any new product releases. when i look at these numbers, as

said, this is a fwroet stock. i don't believe that ibm is. with the exception of saying that this scares me. this is an unbelieve believably crowded trade. the market has been defensive in the contest of a global pull back. we saw a lot of things. if apple and the market falls. i think there is a bigger ramification especially for people who want to sell their flowers and keep their weeds. >> what market did anticipate the move is the options market. in terms of activity today, what did you see? >> you know, i's pretty interesting. individually where all the weekly calls. if you look at the biggest block trade they were primarily bearish. somebody put that thing on 1500

times. so far that one is not in the money but it will be up money tomorrow. the important thing to remember with any technology company is that the party never lasts forever. the first time around for apple. and i think at some point you have to wonder whether they're going be able to keep it up. as far as the demand overseas it will not be there for europe. we see a lot of signs that the emerging markets are under pressure. i continue to be a little bit skeptical. i have been skeptical before and have been proven wrong time and time again. >> apple's impact in the afterhours session. about 120% of the nasdaq. it was a one off and beeel be okay. >> you're talking six months

before the next product comes out. this is going to cause problems. it will cause problems for anybody who is long. i i think there are a couple of things. you asked the question will am tell us whether this is head winders a demand contraction. just as tim cook said on the previous earnings conference call, so optimistically, i would expect he would do the same thing this evening. he should be doing that. they have a con of capital and cash that they could put to work. that is a put under the market play itself. tennis and i dwis adwree. the view has to be a longer term view. really drives the valuation.

and i don't think while in the near term you will see it move lower. this is a stock that you will see first on the list of names that people want to own. >> you mentioned cash. you mentioned cash. as of this quarter, that's up from 1 only 19 companies had market caps bigger than apple's cash holdings. that's an important part of the ev evaluation equation when you look at apple shares. >> if you back out that 120 of cash that makes the valuation here, you know, 11? request which ch is hard to say that is overdone the upside. so it's not available.

there is plenty of cash that is here. i think -- guess i am a little confused. >> i think one is a potential temporary problem versus is the iphone over? >> are we calling this a cyclical stop? >> it has never been. that's the thing. >> it is immune. in large part. there is demand for apple products because they are apple products. they are in a sweet spot out there. >> i guess if i look at a lot of the companies that people are putting attractive multiples on, there are the same pressures. >> john? >> the call is pretty much just started. mentioned a couple of things. they have had the best quarter of u.s. education sales ever.

counting that they have also said that they had their -- they drew down iphone inventory by 300 thousand units. and what's important about that is they had talked about inventory being up. you might have expected to see that come down a bit more. somebody else will be paying allot of attention. >> thank you. we will continue on the conference call and bring us updates. >> i don't believe that is the right strategy. why is ipad units sold better? and i think the geographic expansion that apple has talked about. they reached with the product.

they have increased that to over 100. there is no reason to believe that they could not continue to expant. >> they are going. >> inside of the emerging market. five of the 363 retail stores are outside of the emerging markets. this is, again, an apple story where you don't have to have a huge impact from apple tv. this is why, i saw in the middle of the decemberic on this one. people will be shocked by this. it doesn't mean that the company is broken. i think there has been a lot of money that is hiding out. and actually may see the broader fwroet signals. i'm out. >> where they are trading on

apple's results. what is the best derivative play right now. revenue coming at the top end of the range. the stock does look higher in the afterhours session. we had att and verizon already report today. would you -- >> i'm not going rim. i doubt there is feelings there. i wouldn't be going there. i would go into apple. that would be the play i would go to. >> on the overall market itself. you will see names like logic which is a second derivative trade. pull back on this. the question becomes what are you going to do with this. >> near field. >> communication. eventually the play there is you are thinking that analog chip will be the chip will be on the platform. it is already on the an droid

platform. it will be on the platform. it will be on the platform. >> i think this is a great chance to buy. they may not be. they are important around the world. but again, they are losing those battles to keep the galaxy out of certain countries. it is the biggest waiting in korea and has been sold out in reasons. again, it will react tonight. this to me is the company that eats apple's lunch. because they can do it cheaper. >> iphone sales were disappointing in the second quarter. still, take a look at the decline. it is certainly having an impact tonight. this will drive tomorrow's trading session. coming up next, jc penney

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>> welcome back. apple shares continued to trade lower. down 5% on its. look at the impact. specifically the afterhours of course. it is down by one and a half% right now. apple's miss is only the second miss in the past 20 quarters. the last time that it missed was a quarter before the launch of the iphone 4s when it saw sales down 16%. let's get to mary thompson.

is expected to plead guilty tomorrow. as you might recall it is one of the many people that has been indicted in the wide ranging probe of insider trading related to tips being passed from expert networks to hedge funds. he is expected to plead guilty to charges. he was intighted earlier this year. and also sending some threatening e-mails to law enforcement officials involved in this case. he has been incarcerated since he was indicted earlier this year. expected to plead guilty to insider trading charges. >> some of your reaction to earnings. motive monitoring twitter. >> as you can imagine, it is all about the reaction to apple's

earnings on twitter. getting you all of the major sweeps. not just talking about the reaction of earnings results of apple on its shares going forward for tomorrow and next week but also the impact that apple will have on the larger and major indexes. we know that apple has -- greg saying now we have to sit through another triple digit dow tank. everyone is overreacting to shares of apple. so is qe 3 back on the table? now that apple missed the street estimates? and the last one, somebody call bernanke. we need qe3 back on the table. what will the impact be on the larger broader indexes. >> thanks for that. that is an interesting question. give than we got that report out of the wall street journal. >> cut our losses and then we have apple's impact on the market but a lot of people were

whether that stepped into a market move or lower. >> i will certainly hope that the federal reserve bank does not respond to lower earnings on apple. i find it interesting. >> they could be responding. it could be triggered by a lower move. >> that i will fwrant. i find the whole idea at this time of the year too political. i am a little fusy. he seems to have a direct pipeline into what goes on in washington so let's give him credit. >> this feels like a who sh shoe coming in. by the way, it holds the 50 a very important level. to think that the fed is going to to be reacting.

how this comes about and is carried out, i have no idea. the market got saved from a major lull which i don't think it will get saved from tomorrow. >> i don't have a problem with the story coming out today. i don't think it's a reaction to anything but apple. but ben bernanke saying we're going to do your work for you because you're not doing it. bond yields rise and we hear from ben in some capacity. i don't think it's an unfavorable condition in the market. it's okay. and i think it's wise. if they will continue to not do the work that they need to do. >> okay. let's move on to another big afterhours mover. netflix is falling shortly after the company beat on earnings. remember the ceo making a disclosure on facebook about the number of hours watched by

screening in june. a billion hours were watched in june. >> that's the disclosure. >> exactly. it does not necessarily describe -- to translate to subscribers and that's the problem. >> that is the metric that everybody is looking for and was disappointing. >> we want to go to john fort right now. the conference call has just begun. >> yeah. tim cook is talking right now about the slow down still growing but not so much. pointed to a greater tend of a slow down. $2.2 billion. he said it breaks down this way. half of the drop off is because of inventories that we had.

>> it was really those two issue s. he has not explained the slow down. there should be other issues that they will address. also he talks about margins. guided to 30 five% gross margins. they asked him why he is guiding that way on gross margins. he called it the back-to-school promotion. >> all right. thanks for that. 38.5%. a full transition. >> a lot of that is you are sending higher units in the ipad and iphone. there is a margin differential.

i think what is important is international revenues coming in at 62%. that is why the expansion is so important. you need to ask yourself is the average price is 7.345. do the analysts see anything i don't know that they expect that they would. >> coming up next, we are checking in to see what trend is trading now. [ male announcer ] it's a golden opportunity... to experience the ultimate expression of power -- control. ♪ during the golden opportunity sales event, get great values on some of our newest models. this is the pursuit of perfection. is now within your grasp with the e-trade 360 investing dashboard. e-trade 360 is the world's first investing homepage that shows you where all your investments are and what they're doing

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>> receipt's get back. the company cut its guidance. since that, boasting that there is 1 billion hours streamed online or watched online. that did not translate into subscribers but the stock was taken lower since then. it is sort of even now. >> what is he doing posting stuff like that.

international was it as well. it tuz not seem to be playing out. >> it seems like it is one of the drivers. they are going to be going to back into the red. they are going to go to the next international market. it seems as if people are still worried about the balance sheet. >> netflix is saying that the olympics which begins friday on nbc will have a negative impact on netflix doing as well as sign up. what did you see on the options desk? >> they kind of got this one wrong. >> i thought it was considering that that was not necessarily considered the best part for netflix to begin with. everybody is looking for a little bit of good news. they just got this one wrong. >> let's move on here.

is a sinceable trade becoming a smart one? shares are down 40% year to dade. breaking down this call of the day. always good to sweek with you they have a credit facility that they can lean on. what's the run rate? at what point were you concerned that maybe time is running out? >> one of the big pauses is they have got quite a bit of time here with the liquidity on their balance sheet. like you said, we have coverage last night. the point i make is this turn around will probably stay messy for a while. they will probably report earnings on august 10. behind a lot of noise, we see a positive story here.

you have got the cash which buys them time. i think the strategy they are pursuing is going to work well. >> do you think they could miss the numbers and still is t stock could be up? >> first all we look at the numbers and management guidance and it's a mess at this point. there are some numbers left out. people reporting numbers differently so they are messy. we are below the street. i think at these levels, that is probably baked into the stock. >> one more question. you have a tip for 2015, multiple of ten which does not seem crazy in anyway. you look at macy's or coals, they are at maybe 8 without needing that same kind of turn

around. >> that's a very fair point. we have a fiscal 2015. we articulate in the report that's our base case. we see earnings as great as $5 a share. recognizing that the turn around takes hold and is stronger for the company. >> great great to speak with you. let's get back to brian at headquarters. buffalo wild wings getting crushed on its quarterly report. >> you know, obviously that is done. who knows. it is like moving forward. i ticking down the eps. a revenue is like not a good thing. forget about other comps. and operating margins. i do want to oint out year to

date the names closed today. a lunch for 2012 if these prices hold up. >> thank you for that. >> and a name like this is a high momentum name. a stock that has nod traded below since early in december. this takes the days. you know what people will do. they will trade first ask questions first. it is not a name you jump into tomorrow. >> it is just coming into it. they are going nowhere for the next year and a half or two years. >> movers you might have missed in today's session. it was up 5%. >> rider. you are catching a fallen night here. not something i think you should be doing. things looking a little bit better. >> a drop here for whirlpool.

>> disappointing. had a nice month before. these numbers were a little bit light. there are probably other ways to play it. >> it's going to continue to go higher. they are short this market. people trying to sell the japanese they kept going up for 15 years. people are trying to sell this thing short and it's a bad idea. >> three year lows. a valuation here. you have no demand out of europe. really has no. that's right. >> thousands. >> that's right. >> what a guy. >> i love it. >> down 15%. mike? >> a couple of mons ago, chambers was talking about some of the global growth and head winds for the company.

and yesterday after the close they announced that they are laying off 1300 people. not exactly selling out the growth story coming up. they have earnings that we need to be cautious of. >> and tequila? get the salt and lime ready, it is national tequila day. there are free shots. have no fear, natural scotch day is coming up this friday. it's on my calendar. >> coming up next, a reaction. he has been listening and participating on the earnings call. plus is a rally in corn just getting started? making the call and giving you the trade. stay tuned. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations,

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>> welcome back to fast money. let's get more reaction from you. back on headquarters monitoring the action. >> count on twitter getting more and more bearish. let's get straight to the tweets.

margins are going get even worse. microsoft better at it's time. i knew they were going to miss due to a huge amount of exchange rates. getting a little personal. you're the only one getting it about apples. the other guys you are just making excuses. >> you missed the team work. >> so let's get an analyst's take on the apple conference call. joining us on the fast line is dan of hudson square. are you willing to look through this quarter? >> let's put perspective around this. revenues are up 23% year-over-year. microsoft, one of the largest tech companies, you know, as the bellwether, up 4% overr yaer

over year. rum rumored. holding back. that is what you are like, that's number 84% year-over-year. >> that's great. >> the beat on the ipad, that's all great, fine, and good. iphones are the biggest source of revenue for the company. they are vying for the next quarter growth margins to be done. drop auch the iphone now. >> well, i mean, you know, there is never any guarantees. i thought it was interesting on

the call that cook brugt up the fact, rumors about new products are impacting sales. really the biggest impact which they brought up was last quarter they had a very large inventory fill into china. china is really getting going to them. what you're having there is distribution change. i mean, yes you're right. iphone is a massive part of apple's store. the reason i mention ipad is that is a product category that was clean. there was not an issue of channel inventory. i think we're going to see that come back.

>> stick with you. we will let you get back to the conference call. let's get a market watch here. panera bread. monitoring the action. >> i think the conversation might be panera versus chipotle. it is not all the way fed through. >> is their management that much better than the others? >> sit possible. >> there are other food companies that have done a good

job of hedging. >> all right. >> con fwratlations. >> let's move on. the shares town about 4%. >> very negative. the most active options for the weekly 44 plus volatile by the 41 prints. basically, i think the news out of btu is really what drove the stock. they cannot get out of their own way. it's a rising possibility. it's a lower demand story. the other thing is who wants to step up and try to catch the falling knife. these stocks have often been annihilated. >> you look at the space. getting the options market. we have had good success shorting the call. and i have to tell you that sit

a dangerous game at this point. we keep wading back into the water and dancing near the door. if i look at where the stocks are. and again, prices continue to fall. >> this is a nat gas story. it's very difficult for coal prices to do anything other than stay under pressure. >> catch more options action friday at 5:00. all right. after the break, the wealthiest investors in the world. up next, what part of the world he is betting on in the long term. it's an unlikely choice so you want to stick around and hear what it is. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade.

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"mad money." let's talk about the dow. touching just above 120. a lot of saying below 128 right now. >> i think it is great to a much lower price. talking 110 or below. the game changes dramatically. this game has been bearish for a long period of time. >> all right. let's not talk about slow money. we like to pause from fast and talk slow. thanks for the sound effect. there you go. we look for some of the best long sterm strategies out there. is there value in the longer term? joining us now is steve.

works with 1/3 of the world's billionaires. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me back. longer term. what does that mean? it seems like the prices are going to last for, you know, a year, two years, three years. >> maybe the way to pick up is to think in terms of investments, bonds and stocks that makes sense in what will probably be a slow economic growth for some period of time. and we do think some of the company companies rather than think about just europe, we think that it's important to focus in on companies with characteristics that will help them succeed. these are companies that help other businesses find ways to be more efficient when it's hard to drive unit growth and price

increases. they can extract and help company companies create better. and also some of the technology right rights. >> reaffirmed guidance. >> s&p is very much in that space. absolutely. >> we are continuing to see people of wealth still having the resources. we like the top end consumer goods company. at the same time those companies manufacture retailers and provide affordable clothing, benefitting very nicely. mega brands, we like that theme very much. a lot of companies have strong consumer products management.

in one of the few places where you can find growth. >> i'm sure if you overlay this with europe, you can find real values. so what are you finding if you overlay these themes. leading the world in western developed world new ewe do recommend a combination of south american companies and u.s. companies. it is not all about europe. but how to make money on the long run. you have to find a way to go into some of the markets we do recomme

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>> welcome back. remains down after hours. julie joins us now from loss ang with what to expect from the conference call. julia? >> well, investors and analysts are sure to dig in for details about the key me trick of and the chances that it will hit its prior projections of 7 million new streaming subscribers this year in the u.s. with earnings more than double expectations and revenue right in line with expectations, questioning is likely to focus on programming costs and international expansion.

the company says it will launch its next international market in q4. perhaps it will get details on that shortly. pointing out that hbo go in particular is where he can see the biggest rivalry. how these competitors are eating into net flix's numbers. the conference is a little atypical. it does not include a presentation like most other conference calls. it is just a q & a session followed by an open q & a. >> we are just a few days away from the opening ceremonies for the 2012 olympics. we will be off the air for those two weeks as we allow you to watch the olympics. we are holding our very own tradition. we are bringing you the best

investments in four categories related to the summer games after the closing ceremonies. we will reveal the gold medal winners in each event. we kicked it off yesterday. >> this is a very, very big growth story within an industry we talk all the time. really quick, too, if you want to play duty free in europe, a name that a lot of people can tra trade. they have all of the duty frees and imports and that will be benefitting now. >> two trades. >> two? >> the best hotel in the world, mariott. and the other thing, the euro. you have got the russian judge has scored that dive at a nine and a half. >> karen? >> you know, this is not really

my area. i feel like a jamaican bobsledder. i thought expaid ya looked interesting. i think lit be down tomorrow. >> i actually thought expaid ya was interesting. it is worth it. >> i think a lot of the future earnings have been priced in here for the olympics. mariott is a name i have gotten crushed on. i say coca-cola enterprises. it's a product that will be at the olympics. >> quickly? >> priceline continues to grow. sit a highly valued stock. less than normal move. probably look at call spreads. if you are one of the millions of men

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you can save on your monthly prescription. [ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are, or may become pregnant or are breast feeding should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. talk to your doctor today about androgel 1.62% so you can use less gel. log on now to androgeloffer.com and you could pay as little as ten dollars a month for androgel 1.62%. what are you waiting for?

this is big news. >> weekly iphone sales don't be impacted. we were within our four to six week inventory target.