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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  July 24, 2012 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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>> great shot. >> i don't know what to say. i'm selling the euro. >> i >> i'm jam cramer. welcome to my world. these firms are going to go out of business and they're nuts! he's nuts! they know nothing! "mad money" -- you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to cramerica. all right, here you go, sometimes you just have to let the market come down. when the powers that be, basically all the politicians around the globe are aligned against you, when the consumers are tired of gloomy headlines,
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when the interest rates haven't come down enough, do you mind if we just accept the fact that we've got a short-term defeat on our hands? yeah, we were defeated again today. third down in a row. there's nothing to say but it's a defeat for our friends the bulls. it seems like the greek deals are on the verge of collapse and we're in a high risk moment for spain, the only thing to truly save you are yield and a few, just a few special situations. even the special situations and high dividends might not provide too much protection. but let's go over what it means to lose less than the other guy. let's start with apple. oh, boy. people were quick to dump apple today? sales and earnings failed to beat estimates and guidance was hideous.
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we know apple's products aren't cheap, but apple also has a ton of new products coming up, including a new iphone. that's pausing a market. lots of people have been waiting for the bad guidance to get into the shot so now they have their chance. apple is the kind of situation that can go double play now, in part because of europe. everything that's got international sales. but i still think it should be owned. that does not mean traded, does not mean rented. owned. you have to get through short-term pain to get to longer term gain. hey, let's google where we are with apple. right now -- >> the house of pain. >> the house of pleasure. >> it's real special and there aren't that many special situations that should be able to handle the pressure.
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we can't gain quarter to quarter highs and lows. but if it's real special, i can do it. now, yield is something we can do. stock yields are so much more than bond yields. not as much risk as we're used to seeing. it's how low bonds have gone in yield and how high they've gone in price. i have never seen anything like this. 31 years we haven't seen anything like it. you simply discovered the terrific industrial is in stronger shape than it should be and it's got a much better yield than treasury. why not wait? yielding 4%, conoco or incana or kendrick morgan partners. you can accept you're going to lose a little money, but not a
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lot of money. these companies pay you to wait. you're betting europe is not suicidal when you buy something with a 4% yield and they'll come up with a solution eventually for the dissolution for one of the largest and most important markets on earth, spain. plus, it's pretty clear we may actually have a bottom in natural gas. as it's held the $2 level and bounced to a $3 level, thanks to a huge number of shut-ins and dramatic decline in drilling. that's what a bottom looks like. supply no longer is exceeding demand. same goes for the high yielding pharma stocks. one of the most important clinical trials out there failed its end point last night. the stock is barely down. i mean look, it is where an industrial failed, is down 10%. johnson & johnson it was hit. heaven forbid you do it, but you
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can gain altria's numbers took. you better believe the yield is headed higher. the dividend is going to be raised. they boosted their payouts for the consecutive 47 years. and at&t and verizon, verizon reported a quarter that wasn't good enough. same goes for at&t. but you know what, as long as the 10-year treasury yield stays absurdly low, it's not crazy to start buying into the weakness. and may i just add the terrific trend we saw for at&t, higher consumer use, expanded data use, less churned, meaning fewer people leaving their network, these are all in their infancy. at&t is not going to be a super growth stock just like apple. i want to own it. you can't afford to hold on to
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the soda companies. they've got some food chain, some commodity inflation. but when their yields get to be 3 1/2, i like them. heinz, conagra, even kellogg. that yield is so good. they'll pay you. and they don't even have the momentum, but i still like them. proctor and gamble, same idea. no momentum but it has a 3.5s for yield. something good can happen there, even with a strong dollar. and there's utilities themselves. there's risks, but think duke, the most hated utility of them all, gives you a yield of 4.7%. i'm not saying the utilities are going to go up, they go down less than others. i can't -- i accept the fact that you have to lose some money with recession-resistance stocks and i know how out of control europe has gotten in for the
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moment. these stocks can and probably will go lower that i've mentioned, but the yields make them worth owning anyway. think about eaton. we've had multiple moments like this one, although the potential collapse in spain is looming larger and will be horrible for europe. not as bad for us. it's a defensive moment. there's nothing wrong with having something special, but you have to remember that we are in loss acceptance mode and that's a very important mind set for those of you who want to make longer-term money. if i was a bio hedge fund, i wouldn't be able to go into loss acceptance mode. couldn't afford it. that's not what my partners pay me for. i understand bhie anyone who manages money professionally wouldn't want to be in that mode. at my old hedge fund, we try to make money every single di, so we would have to be short the euro, betting against the commodities, bet against the deep cyclicals or come short apple this morn, all right?
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but for me, right now, someone who runs the charitable trust, forget about it. for you who manages your own money, forget about it. don't leave this market if you have yield or special situations that you are sitting on. stand pat. get ready to buy more of the higher yielders as the price falls as we advocated successfully with eaton. the bottom line is we can afford to take the short-term pain to make longer-term games. you can have a few special situations. not many. and you can even include an apple, and you accept that you could be in for a beatdown for the moment until europe once again comes up a solution that pushes back the apocalypse and the chinese move more aggressively so the collapse, not a bruising, but the toe -- total collapse is averted. chris, how chris? >> caller: how's it going? >> tough day. but we're working it out together. what's going on? >> caller: i need some help,
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need some suggestions on "web md" down 20%. but since i bought it down 50%. bought it at $30 and it's at $14 a share. what are your suggestions? >> i have not liked that for a long time, ever since stories about how they're really doing. there's nothing there for me. that there's nothing that makes me feel good about it. i don't like these numbers coming down. tommy. . >> caller: it's fred from new york, jimmy. isrg, intuitive surgical. >> i thought they were fine. but they came down the same day as chipotle. they have to be perfect and they can't have any economic sensitivity. and in that quarter they talked about economic sensitivity in europe so that is enough to move
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the stock lower. >> caller: a new jersey boo-yah for you, jimmy. >> whew. okay. >> caller: i need you, man. i did everything you told me to do. i'm a home gamer on margin over here. $429,000 on $80 million in revenue. i said this thing is going to go down. it goes up. i don't get it. $15 million in equity, it went up. the liabilities went down. what do i do? >> all right, listen. i totally get what you're saying. i would ring the register on some of this. under armor guided up and i do think it's a technology stock.
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it sells at that huge multiple that chipotle and isrg did before we got into the house of pain. why not leigh the address before it happens. here's where you are. if you do this and do this, you'll stay in the house of pleasure. and you won't risk -- >> the house of pain. >> sometimes short-term pain is necessary for long-term game. it does not like mighter yielders immune to the selloff. you lose less and then when things get better, you make money. "mad money" will be right back. coming up, planting the seeds? as our nation's worst drought in 50 years continues in the midwest, commodity prices rise even higher. tonight, cramer is pinning the technicals versus the fundamentals to see if one play could grow stronger fighting
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america's dust bowl conditions when he goes "off the chart." and later, pay to play? they're the crown princes of lay time. but tonight, only one stock can win this game. cramer hosts an epic toy story showdown between hasbro and mattel. plus, pickle power. p and g foods is up. could it help defend your portfolio in this volatile environment? cramer decides when he breaks bread with the company's ceo. [ male announcer ] drive a car filled with as much advanced technology
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this midwest drought is causing some serious issues from the breadbasket for america.
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we can look at companies who may be able to help the situation. that's what we're doing with tonight's "off the charts" with my colleague at the street. collins has noupd found a way i believe to play ag. he thinks it's going to take a long time for both farmers anticipate traders to forget what happened to corn so far this season. even as we may be getting a positive break in the weather later this week and there's still time to save. but that sered memory means they're going to act rather than react. and that means more business for monsanto. the perfect opportunity is also developing in monsanto's charts.
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this is the shorter term pictograph that shows action has blemishes and that makes collins think the stock is due for a pullback. look at this, during this bad period, you see, there's this wedge formation with a floor around $45. but it held if you look at the close because the close was above $85. still, collins thinks the stock could move down to the $80 to $83 level without a problem. it does matter for entry points. however, collins said it should be bought and bought aggressively, kind of almost have to hope there's a pullback, why? the charts are extremely bullish. second, monsanto has solid support around $81. third, look at the bottom of this chart, will you? this is the accumulation distribution. an indicator that measures
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volume relative to stock price. with monsanto the accumulation distribution line, hey, this is beautiful. we've seen heavy buying in this one. much more aggressive buying than selling. collins thinks this is solid evidence the stock hasn't really been pushed up by people chasing momentum. these weak-handed players could be your worst enemy. instead, monsanto is by live investors who aren't renting, they're owning. one last thing about the daily chart. do you remember the bearish wedge? chart reading, not unlike palm reading is highly open to interpretation. and if we use the dotted line instead of the solid one at the top of the pattern, that changes the whole formation, just like when i was talking about whether this is breached or not.
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the lean -- this line means it's a bearish wedge and monsanto is due for a pullback. if we go with the dotted line instead of the solid line, it means it's at the low end of a bullish channel, which is exactly the way a technician would want to buy. i'm not definitive, but if we get a pullback in monsanto, collins would be a buyer. let eelg look at the weekly chart. this has shadows of the same kind of wedge formation that we saw in the daily, but in the weekly, monsanto has broken out above the wedge. see that? and the two trend lines have actually met each other. well, wait a second. that's not supposed to happen. it's not just good technical analysis. that dunl happeoesn't happen. if they meet, you're supposed to throw it away. so collins says you have to
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forget about the wedge in the daily and just focus on the larger bullish channel contained between the two brown lines. previous worries, mitigated by this longer-term, which he thinks tells more truth. right now, monsanto is at the top of the channel and collins believes is preparing to break out. last week, the stock rallied above its old ceiling of resistance, which is now its floor of support. and that floor is close to the top of the channel. if the breakout fails, we should know in the next week and a half. why does collins think it will succeed. first, there's the rsi at the top of the chart. it says the stock is ready to roar. as long as we don't get a huge pullback in the rsi, relative strength, collins believes monsanto has a good chance of testing $90 next month, $5 above where the stock is right now. one more thing, take a look at the bottom of this. this shows the correlation with the price of corp. over the last two years, you can
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see the correlation all over the map. ever since the weather got warm, this correlation has spiked. now the stock is highly correlated with a skyrocket in the price of corn. on the one hand, this means monsanto might pull back if it rains, but on the other hand, what you might find out through this stock has often been able to move higher even in the wake offaling corn prizes. he thinks the weekly is telling the more truth than the daily and n a subjective basis. not as worried about the bearish wedge. more seeing that it's breaking out of this longer-term channel. at the end of the day, though, it's the ultra term chart that really makes collins excited about this. not only a bull, he says monsanto is one of his five favorite names. he thinks the monthsly chart is one of the most attractive long-term charts out there. and when i saw it i said holy cow, i should show this first. but my tradition is to go daily
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and then go out weekly and then monthly. what makes this picture so beautiful collins says a breakout that's only started to happen. he says it's the bottom of the first inning. that's incredible. monsanto is just beginning to sew the seeds of its upside potential. it's all about this reverse head and shoulders pattern. it looks like a person's head upside down. this pattern started a long time ago. i love -- i love the monthly, go back real far. to me, it really shows a lot more gravitas. now monsanto is breaking out above the neckline. and that tells collins, it could be headed a lot higher. how much higher? get this, guys. that would be a 53% gain from these levels. farmer investors won't b soon
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forget the havoc caused by the drought and the way to play it is monsanto. got the correlation, the head and shoulders chart, the breakout. tim collins believes it has the head and shoulders chart and i believe. in a similar way dupont makes a ton of sense to buy. stay with cramer. coming up, paid to play? they're the crown princes of play time. but tonight, only one stock can win this game? an epic toy story showdown between hasbro and mattel. you know what i love about this country?
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that shows you where all your investments are and what they're doing with free streaming quotes, news, analysis and even your trade ticket. everything exactly the way you want it, all on one page. transform your investing with the e-trade 360 investing dashboard. if batman and spider-man were stocks, which would be the better buy? how about bat map versus the avengers? ironman, captain america, the whole force. and of course, the most lethal superhero of them all, scarlet johansson. what we're really talking about is the ultimate battle of the toy makers. that's hasbro versus mattel. this is one of the most destruct
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ive pieces and you're going to have fun with it. hasbro owns the transformers, g.i. joe and my little pony. mattel has a similar deal with d.c. comics, meaning they can make the merchandise for the new batman movie which just had a huge opening weekend and they control some of the strongest toy brands on earth. we're now approaching the most important part of the year for the toy companies. for just a huge chunk of sales. as a matter of fact, all you care about is that quarter to some degree. which do you buy? this throwdown does seem to be about as evenly matched. hasbro is the second larnlest toy company. both companies recently reported better than expected quarters. hasbro yesterday, mattel a week ago. they each have big dividends. don't forget, if a stock goes down, the yield goes higher. so which is the better stock? maybe we should just have the action figures go at it, see who
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wins? actu when you drill down, mattel beats hasbro. not because the new batman movie is of a lot better than the new spider-man. although i'm sure that will help. at the end of the day, this contest isn't about one superhero versus another. no, it's actually about girls versus boys. and boys versus games. you see, has bro's products lean more towards little boys than little girls. the majority of mattel. >> es business is aimed at girls. not just barbie, but also monster high, which is new and very popular with the kids. it's growing like crazy. the great thing about being a toy company that's focused on girls is that you mean your business is a lot more consistent. mattel doesn't live and die based on whether it bets on the right movie franchise because there will always be little girls who want barbie dolls.
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hasbro is different. about 42.5% of their business is oriented towards boys. and boys are not reliable. hasbro has been doing well lately thanks to the avengers which came out earlier this summer. and toy sale s for the new spider-man movie has started off strong. but they're up against really tough comparisons. last summer there was the big transformer movie and they crushed the numbers in toys. even though the boy business is doing well in absolute terms, it ain't doing well at all relative to last year. in fact, it was down 16% last quarter. people don't think oh, well, maybe it was strong last year. they think something is wrong. hasbro is dependent on aligning itself with the right movies, very dicey. so it can sell action figures to little boys. of course, these are gross generalizations. i don't want anyone to accuse cramer of sexism or having a
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monster high, other than from the drink. plenty of boys like dolls and plenty of girls like to play with trucks and action figures. we us they used to hit each other over the head all the time when they were lit wl trucks. i'm trying to make your understand why mattel is a better investment than hasbro. it's a pure play on toys. whereas hasbro is games and puzzles like scrabble and monopoly. right now, games are getting crunched thanks to the web and gaming devices and consoles. that's why hasbro's gaming revenue has declined by 8% in the last quarter. hey, guys, that's just not good. games, however, are a much smaller piece of the pie at mattel. for example, they made a successful board game based on angry birds.
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this will take time to pan out, and even if it does, it's not a needle mover. although, maybe for once i can beat my daughter at that darn scramble thing. third, while both companies delivered upside surprises, mattel's quarter was better than hasbro's. mattel's revenue was flat. north american sales were up 1%. but the company's core businesses were strong. barbie was up 5%. hot wheels was up 7%. american girl up 3%. has bro, on the other hand, i see it declined. even with these comparisons, revenues were down 11% year over year. the second quartner a row of declining revenues. we don't like that. at this point, it's hard to see how the kplaen grow sales this year. even as we're headed to the best part of the year for toy makers.
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europe accounts for 30% of the company's sales, versus 25% for mattel. any company that has home run europe than the other, i'm going with the other. how about valuation? mattel, a little more expensive, 12 vp 7 times next year's earnings. wait a second. mattel has a higher multiple, but it actually doesn't mean it's more expensive. that's glib. you see, mattel has a higher long-term growth rate of 8.5% versus just 7.4% for hasbro. and it's the growth rate that determines expanse. remember, we want to factor growth into the valuation and we always do. we turn this thing into the p.e.g. ratio, price to earnings multiple divided by the growth rate. i'm sorry, i need to teach this stuff. both stocks have a peg rate of 1.5%. so it isn't so expensive. the only area where hasbro wins
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is the dividend. come on, 3.6 is still pretty darn good, especially compared to the puny return in long-term treasuries right now. i do say mattel is a better company. however, mattel has had a huge run since it reported a week ago and stocks are only pennies away from its 52-week high. so it would be irresponsible for me to conclude not only mattel better but to buy, buy i, buy. you need to wait for it to come down. batman beat spider-man hands down. or maybe the better way to look at it is that barbie beat spider-man. barbie beats the avengers. and boy, does barbie ever beat transformers. that's why it's crushing the boy-oriented hasbro. we hate chasing in "mad money" so wait for a pullback in mattel. in a pullback, mattel is going
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to yield more and that's when you pull the trig per . john? >> caller: i'm giving you a big boo-yah. i just found dreamworks animation made an acquisition. is it a good buy now? >> no. it did well and then badly. i can't put it in the camp of companies that have good yields that are in this business. i don't want you in dreamworks. i do need to go to ray in illinois. >> caller: i'm ray in illinois. introducing a new music device to keep up with the big boys. do you think it's time to full the trigger or will sony continue down the path -- >> no, no, no. here's sony. sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. these companies entering decline, they don't turn, whether it be radio shack. best buy. doesn't turn. nokia, doesn't turn.
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eastman kodak. research in motion. they're very similar situations. they don't turn. although sony has a better balance sheet. i just don't want you in it. there's just not enough to make me recommend it. all right, a man's world? with apologies to spiedy, but barbie rules. and so does mattel. coming up, can you handle the heat? cramer gets you fired up for a sering hot lightning round. and later, pickle power. p and g foods is already up a fresh 15% in 2012, but could its dashing dividend and savory staple of consumer brands continue to help defend your portfolio in this volatile environment? cramer decides when he breaks bread with the company's ceo. all coming up on "mad money." [ male announcer ] when a major hospital
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>> it is time for "the lightning round."
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are you ready skee-daddy? let's start with james in georgia. james? >> caller: jim, what's going on? >> this is my problem with latin america. u.s. cannot offset these negatives which is why it's one tough stock. let's go to todd in michigan. >> tvi over 13? >> over at the street.com, they're saying there's nothing good happening here. don't buy. let's go to joe in michigan. joe? >> caller: jim. i love costco, what's your take on it? >> the charitable trust just sold it right here. why? because it had such an amazing run. i did not want to tempt fate. nice gain. don't bind taking it off the table. let's go to barry in texas.
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>>. >> caller: thank you for taim taking my call. kirby. >> this is very similar to what's happened to a lot of oil and oil service stocks. i can't buy it here because there's not balanced budget a turn yet in the business. jonathan in iowa. jonathan. >> caller: boo-yah. hey, cramer, i love your show. calling from cedar rapids. >> nice to have you. >> caller: i'm 26 years old anticipate looking for long returns. what do you think about tesla? >> tesla to me is very expensive. i've got enough problems with the blue chip. don't need to speculate. >> let's go to dakota in virginia. which is an oddity in itself. >> caller: yeah. >> yeah. you're on. >> caller: travel zoo? tzoo? >> no. i mean, here's another one. trip adviser is tough. we just had kayak come public.
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just one more horrific day. you probably feel like giving up on the entire market or investing. i understand that. what you need to do is stock up on safety. take advantage of the weakness to buy domestic security shots. the weak that can thrive even when everyone is terrified about the possible collapse of europe. stocks like b and n foo-- g foo. now it yields 3.9% because the stock is going up. it has an incredible track record of resurrecting brands it buys from larnler food players.
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b and g is the same approach the yankees seem to be taking. they picked up discarded and undervalued players. raul ibanez, now these players are finding new life on the team. we know b and g works in this environment, the stock is giving you a 25% turn. after the close, a 2 cent earnings beat. revenues came in a little light. let's check in with david winter, president and ceo of b and g foods, find out more about the quarter. please have a seat. okay, point blank, i've got to say, this was the most conservative that you've been. i picked the word conservative because you used words, you said there was mild but broad softness in sales. you talked about volume loss,
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about the idea that you, too were not immune to the general weakness in the food business. so i want you, because you're just the most candid guy in your industry to explain what's gone right and what's gone right. >> the first problem is nobody understands what's going on. we've had three-quarters in a row where food business in general had soft declining volume. and the categories we've competed, not necessarily all our products, but when i look at the nielsen data on the categories we compete in, it's a sea of red. so everybody is going where are the consumers and what are they eating? no one has a really good answer. our decline, which was a little over 3% is half or more of what other people are declining. you have some very substantial declines out there in the food business. and it's a source of -- it's kind of humbling because i've been doing this over 20 years and i've never seen anything like it before. and, you know, you have to be conservative when you don't understand, well, what is the consumer doing and how long can they keep this up?
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>> i thought it was even tougher. you have different tiered brands. but you had ortega up 4.7. cream of wheat, up 4.9%. what the heck? this has been around forever. why did this have the biggest spurt of growth of any single food line that i follow in every other company? >> it's about distribution. we' done a good job of getting product into dollar stores, drugstores and retailers on the west coast where the product never was before. we've done a very good job of taking the line and doing that. we've also continued to innovate. we have a chocolate flavored instant cereal that's gaining distribution. it's all about increasing our presence in the market. >> let's talk about this one. i was puzzling through chipotle. they talk about people staying home. yesterday mcdonald's.
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this is the way to get mexican food if you're staying home. that's got to be the reason why you had more than plus 4, right? >> it's a great value. >> how much cheaper is this going to taco bell? >> you could feed your family with what you could feed two people for this kind of thing. it's a great value, it's something that kids like. it's a food when you sit down at the table, everyone can tailor. it's a very good family feeding type of food. what we think people are looking for. >> you also gave insights into coupons. if they're worth less, they're redeemed more. what the heck is going on out there? >> consumers are looking for value, if you can get them money off for buying a product perhaps they were already going to buy, they're all over that. >> you mentioned that look, in
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this environment, you've got to be very, very careful what you do, but this culver acquisition is good from the get-go. >> culver acquisitions primarily is mrs. dash, but it includes five other brands, molly mcbutter. >> i have to use i use this. i keep thinking my doctor is going to say how could you put soolt on it? so i use this. >> it's good. we have a lot of recipes to tell you how to use it on the website, too. and some house hold products like static guard. what we plieked about the portfolio was they were niche products. mrs. dash does 80% of the salt-free seasoning business. they have a dominant presence where they compete, which is true of a lot of our brands. and that's why we're able to do as well as we do. >> you're ready to do another acquisition? >> yep, we sure are. financially and organizationally. we're done integrating this and we're ready to go. >> i wish everything was going
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up. look, we like the stock so much lower, it's difficult for me. because you're conservative, but at the same time, it's best of breed. >> we continue to build the business and we're very happy with where we're going. >> well done. what a winner. still got a good yield. as the stock goes down, you get a bigger yield. remember? and it got some growth. "mad money" is back after the break. ♪
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this time you really can blame the politicians. it's not an alibi, it's a reality. i don't like companies say they missed the quarter because of europe or china, one thing has become obvious is the reporting period. politicians stand in the way of earnings growth that drives markets higher. the politicians could care less. it's almost as if the woel world turned communist and the last thing the politicians want to think about is the fact that business may be hurt by their policies. and what makes it more ridiculous? only the corporations can get the country out of the hole its dug for itself. our policies can't be repaid by raising taxes. we need to grow our way out of this jam, not cut our way out of it. so to here sandy eaton said it's
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causing biers of trucks to hold off on their purchase, that's devastatin devastating if our politicians are awful at abetting business to create much-needed jobs, the europeans? horrendous. almost every international company i followed gave you if not for europe nation. just today, ups and dupont did a but-for, and you could only wish they could asterisk europe, as if europe somehow doesn't count towards earnings because it's dragging down both the tops and bottoms line. ups, which was the most negative i have heard of any company, because they were the precursor to last year's decline. they didn't have a good word to say about asia either. they're talking about business falling off a cliff. even mcdonald's had to talk about how you needed a super super value meal to attract diners. in germany, a value meal isn't
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enough? get a super value meal. mcdonald's sited the ennui in europe for the reason for the slowdown. customers final understand things aren't coming back anytime soon. this is burgers and fries we're talking about. unlike europe in the united states, though, the genuine chinese politicians, yum brands has echoed the negativity. yum's sales weren't as robust as they were and neither were the sales of mcdonald. of the tree sets of politicians, the europeans, american and chinese, the communist recognize the imperative growth of capitalism to provide it. i bet china turns first, which is why you can't be totally pessimistic as you would otherwise be if you looked a the future for the u.s., exbernanke and europe, a future that seems to dim solely because of the endless squabbling by our elected officials who are put
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into place, solutions for the problems they happen to be creating! >> follow jim cramer on fwiter. with the spark cash card from capital one, olaf's pizza palace gets the most rewards of any small business credit card! pizza!!!!! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! put it on my spark card! [ high-pitched ] nice doin' business with you! [ garth ] why settle for less? great businesses deserve the most rewards! awesome!!!
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