there you go. we will take it where you can get it. >> no more boxing on the olympics but the gang on "fast money" are taking the gloves off and going at it. >> have a great evening. >> the speculation was out there. >> it's time to train the bolt. it's time for "fast money."

>> the republican ticket for the presidential election now set with mitt romney announcing paul ryan as his running mate. 5 what do you make of the news? >> i actually didn't do anything on this romney ryan ticket. i think it comes down to the economy. 5. >> now is not a time that i would want to see austerity. >> if anything there is a lot of discussion that this brings the topic of the fiscal cliff. this is clearly a fiscally conservative and socially conservative, i think from a social perspective, what it has

done is taken the attention off of barack obama and making it about a rev ren dumb about this economy. i think by bringing mr. ryan you might have done that. i didn't see the dollar get stronger or see things that would have said fiscally conservative. this is not news that you act on. >> so perhaps no direct marketing back. will that actual ly ly. >> there is a fiscal cliff issue. you hear it time and again about the hesitation. because they don't know not just

the fiscal cliff but the overall administration. what is going to be their stance towards business. >> i agree. and i will take the gloves off. but i do think that it's a positive that we have got these guys talking about what is that 800 pound gorilla in the room. they keep looking at how much we're spending versus how much greece spends. i think we have to focus back in on these. if you didn't have somebody like paul ryan on the ticket, then i think the talk, basically goes to, well, mitt romney worked at bain capital. so what. that's a good thing. but we will see what the voters

think. >> we talk about boxing. today's after a run we have had in the markets, it's been a period where they have kept peop people. >> all right. ryan may be chairman of the house's budget committee but is there reason to believe. chief u.s. economist, he joins us right now. it's great to have you with us. >> i think that's going raise investor's concerns about how the cliff is going be dealt with. it will depend on how it plays out in the campaign. that will bring forward the

market's concern about what we will see after the election. >> i think so. one of your earlier comments, it means the ultimate outcome will be a fiscally conservative one. >> loose, it's brian kelly. i was going ask you -- do you think they actually do maybe portray themselves to try to pull in some of the middle vote. >> i think they will have to stress the things anyway. my view is i think they have always been fiscally conservative in the long run. i think they are committed to that and i think they will have to stress that more. ultimately the outcome they will get next year is going to reflect that. >> getting back to the core of

the ryan plan or what you expect, i think what brian is talking about, this sounds a lot more like eu austerity than it does where we will find a way, republicans find a way to stimulate. you know, this is a little bit confusing for folks. >> i think that's exactly the right point. i think the argument that we could use some more investment in key areas like infrastructure. i think that will get lost. i think the net effect of this when we come to making decisions about spending is probably going to be more negative than optimal for the economy. we do need to deal with the long run issues but that does not translate into what we do right up front. what i am concerned about is, you know this debate, if you look at the budget, it's much more conservative than the early years. we will move in that direction ultimately.

>> the other question that i had going in is ryan has been a vocal critic of the fed. >> i think bernanke is there for several more years, right? >> romney has said pubically that he would look for replacement of bernanke as well. if you are buying into the market on the qe possibility and the continued stimulus, then you probably do not want to see a romney ryan presidency. it would not be good for the qe trade only. >> and it is not good for uncertainty in markets. i think the fourth quarter has a whole lot no matter how this plays out.

>> all right. let's touch on scott nations. >> we now have the democrats want to spend a significant amount of money. they think that's the way out of the the problem. mr. romney and ryan take a completely different point of view. before people have talked about it's a lesser of two evils. in this situation, in this election, it will be very different that they need to significant volatility end of november. >> ebay seeing a surge today in afternoon trading but what

exactly was behind this pop? let's bring in john with the latest on this. what is the rumor mill grinding? >> the rumor was that ebay is getting close to spinning off paypal. they had no comment on that but i am hearing that is not happening any time soon.

>> thanks a lot for separating fact from fiction at this point. in terms of the options activity you did see unusual activity. in particular we saw it at the september 47 call strike. large blocks two and 4,000 options that are clipped going across. they almost doubled on the day. going from 54 cents to a dollar today on a relatively minor move out of the stock. keep an eye on it. they really are not plans. perhaps this was a trial balloon that they tossed out there to see how people would react. >> our next guest has his finger on the pulse. he is giving you an inside look ahead of earnings reports. stay tuned because we're checking the channels right after this. ♪ this is the sound of my soul ♪

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>> welcome back to fast. let's hit the market flash desk check. >> that was less than the 573.15. down nearly 19% in the afterhours session. this is a stock that closed up 1.5% on expectations and the conference call which is taking place right now. >> thanks a lot. it should be noted that there is heavy put activity.

>> just putting a floor on it. that there were puts purchased at the 7 and 8 put strike. >> let's get a check on retail. it is a very big week for earnings. we will get results from high end brands. we are checking the channels ahead of those reports right now. joining us is john gates, director of research. great to have you with us. >> let's start off with coors. i wond irhow you interpreted that. did you read the weakness as strength for michael kors or as a tell on weakness? >> we produce our own primary research. we saw coach results and slight

change check. michael kors is very different. we have talked to and understand, we talked to buyer and department managers. probably talked to about 70 of them in the u.s. and europe. they are all handling michael qors products and mur chan dizing. all the buyers, they are all meeting and exseating plans. kors was ahead. it was driven by the handbags. the buyers over there were initially sensing that kors, too much so while we saw also kors positive over in europe, while we saw abercrombie, they are a

little more pressured. >> what are you seeing in terms of the u.s. department stores. are they helped by kors. i know they have a strategy as well. >> in the share and just in the merchandise and activity levels that we are going through, they were very upbeat on it. 5. >> losing market share to people.

>> t.j. maxx definitely well positioned. we have been tracking that one for a while. what was interesting to us whether i think there is expectation that that was maybe moderating out, they are saying they expect into the second half here that j.c. penney is going continue to lose ground. >> that's not really the issue. it's all about pricing not merchandi merchandise. >> i'm curious. on target and walmart, are you seeing any trends where they are taking share away from the dollar stores?

>> we might have some limited view into that. we do see target doing very well. we see them as a beneficiary. them telling us where they see the volumes moving. target doing well and also in grocery. we track that market a little bit. target in several areas, they are taking some share into the, you know, into their merchandising as well. >> thanks for your time. john gates of otr global. we heard that that there is concern about consumables which is just food basically.

>> there has been a lot of momentum into the housing space. they have given you guidance. a couple updats. tell you that there has been some slow down here. over the last year where you have seen major resistance. i would not be long this into the numbers. >> about 75 cents for the puts. their break even is 515.75. so somebody expects home depot to fall through that level convincingly. >> all right. you can catch more options actions.

quickly in terms of the retail earning, what would it be? >> target and walmart. i like target a lot. i hope they take share. >> a quiet day for stocks overall but there are still key movers that should be on your radar. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. use the news links breaking stories with possible breakout stocks, options with potential opportunity, futures and forex with in-depth analysis. it's an all-you-can-eat buffet for all things trading. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. it doesn't just deliver news. it's making news. trade commission free for 60 days,

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♪ ha ha! >> time now for pops and drops. pop here for google. >> i think they got an upgrade from more fwan stanley. >> it's been a crazy run. >> the vix was down. >> pushing down to just this

close to a new 52-week low. and the futures are all teenagers except for the october futures. the future is moving lower as well. the market only moved what? two tenths of a percent. >> wow. pop here for ip international paper. >> talking about pricing increases. by the end of the year this is an industry that really cut back. >> very positive mention. $100 is an improved profits. sure enough the company announced the spin off today. >> the wild animals were able to reach the outer and inner walls of the cage.

a path to freedom. >> free bird here by skin nard. the bird remains on the lam. >> i'm out. >> resuming pops and drops. down 4%. >> these guys, google buying the travel guide business today. that apparently pressuring the shares and many of the others in the sector as well because fwoogle may indeed favor what they own going forward. >> this is industrial property. i don't know why it was up. >> drop here for first solar. >> solar out of germany. a couple of forecasts also accused.

not good for first solo at all. >> potentially the largest china leveraged buy out. it's been a frenzy. >> that's right. the company has been having a good august. we find out that worldwide copper consumption down 6%. i know tim does it well. a popular home workout prom. paul ryan reportedly follows a strict exercise routine which includes p90x.

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>> welcome back. live at the naz tack market site. groupon plunging. it is down about 20%. we asked you if you were finding value in groupon. tracking the tweets out there. >> melissa, traders on the social media stratosphere are surprisingly bullish on groupon.

get to the next one, another trader says groupon is testing the august lows. matthew says i opened a position on groupon since vol is so low and it's the only stock with high volume. >> thanks a lot for bringing those treats in. i think a lot of the traders ashion at the each other in a reasoning behind getting into groupon eventually. high volume so therefore you should get in. >> i don't think you should get into groupon at all. as part of the release they said they were going to add employees out in california.

>> what do they do? >> that's the problem. >> that is a problem. >> everyone else can do it. the stock is lower. that doesn't mean it's cheap at all. >> that is a big number. they have 12,000 employees. you have to wonder what the other 6,000 do. >> margin guidance has been weak. there is simply a dly deal fatigue out there. so many companies out there. >> others can do it and they have huge deep pockets to compete.

as safe as you think. joining us now is jeff rosen burg. now jeff, a lot of people out there continue to pour money into bonds and they still believe it is a safe haven. we have seen a sizable rally. what's going to change that? what you have had is a major shift in what's going on in europe. what's going on has driven a fear trade in the equity markets. that's been worth about 100 basis points. aleleviate some of the risk. the ten year is up 20 basis points off of its low. the risk in fixed income is when rates rise. >> let's get to the heart of the

matter. do you buy spanish and italian debt? >> almost game changer. why do i say almost? we still have germany who is not on bourd. that's going to keep market uncertainty on high. when we see germany get on boerd, then i think it's a game changer. right now we are almost there. that means buying italian bonds here. buying spanish bonds as well. >> i was going to say quickly.

>> long term the fundamentals are much better where they are in the case of spain. so italian front end yeels. we may be more comfortable there than say in spain where there is a lot of risk in front of you. maybe a little bit more risk reverse there. contrast that to the other side of curves. we look at what's going on in germany. definitely expect a steepening there where long and german yields have to go higher if this is going to be successful. >> twice you have mentioned germany and i don't blame you. the whole conversation should be about germany. how do you think that plays on?

>> review of the constitutionality. it is the big bail out vehicle. it's going to hold up until that point. what is the market expecting? we're going to get something similar to what our supreme court did. no it's going to be yes but. the key is what is the but. it's going to be a yes. we will get through that up until that point we will have to be cautious because there is the tail risk scenario. >> this is a slow money segment. you sound a little bit more tilted to the positive when it comes to italian debt. >> there is a buying opportunity at the fear points. and those fear points you talked about, 6.5% yield. that was a buying opportunity.

these are serious issues. on the flip side of that, we may see generational sell opportunities. you see them driving in germany and switzerland. >> quickly bk in terms of, you know, mentioned the court dalt. now there is a challenge to that court date. we might not get that resolution. >> more. >> the real question is, is there anything else out there. every we have to get the germans on board here. when they do say they will write

the check, i think they are moving towards. that will be the game changing time in europe. and i do think you can. you can buy european financials and industrials. all of those. but it might be after september 12. >> let's move on here. back at headquarters. why they may be smiling all the way to the bank. >> thanks. in deed, paul ryan has a very clear view of the wealthiest views that they are job creators that they should be encouraged. gives people making $500,000 or more, a million dollars or more, an average tax cut. romney's plan is a little less generous. cuts $250,000. now the main difference here

between romney and ryan is how to treat income from investments. ryan would eliminate all taxes on capital gains. romney wants a top rate of 28%. under both of these plans, how is this different from obama? it's very different. for those million plus earnings. a tax cut for those making $200,000 or less. he could benefit. mitt romney would pay an effective tax rate of less than 1%.

>> karen, you are sure of this name, still? that is the only thing that is keeping the floor under this dock. as the turn around story starts to really have. >> one thing that was interesting to me which were disappoint across the board was they continued pounding the table. they always used the term rock solid. this story would not be trending

near here. >> not seem to be. >> i find that hard to believe when they have aban on theed guidance. that guidance we have. but we don't know what they're going to. >> the numbers they put up last week were so horrific that if they didn't have this massive short that had to cover last week and it's not one person but a very large group of people. but if they didn't have that, this stock would have been a teen ager like that and would have still been there. >> we have got that story right after this.

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he set out to fix that on tonight's 20 under 20 transforming tomorrow. he offers 20 brilliant teenagers $100,000 to drop out of school so they can stop piling e ining. >> i was indebted to big research universities but i chose something that was more economically feasible. >> they are going to to be in indenttured servitude for a decade or more to come. >> that debt never goes away even in personal bankruptcy. that is a huge limiting factor. you can't go start a new company or work for a newly founded company because that is simply too risky. you have to take well paying but less interesting jobs.

>> don't miss this at 10:00 p.m. with the finale airing tomorrow at the same time. certainly a fascinating proposition. all right. the euro getting a small pop. a major event is on the horizon. amelia, what are you expecting out of the release? >> the market's pricing about .2% loss. i think it could be weaker. there is a strong risk that it will come into the downside. i see more downside risk. and this running that we saw

today, they were stopped out. 123.50. >> it's tim. one of the trades that i think you talk about often is the aussie dollar. really technically markets are there. we have had a good run and there has been a lot of break downs. >> what's happening is very interesting. released minutes from their meeting and they showeded that they have become concerned about the strength of the currency which is new language. i think what a lot of people are looking for i think we need

another payroll number and a signal from bernanke on the way to repel dollar higher. >> something to do friday. >> exactly. coming up. >> we have waited a whole two weeks. revealing the gold medal winners.

>> welcome back to fast. in times square. as you know, fast money has been on a two week break for our network coverage of the london olympics. so now it's time to see whose picks perform the best.

our first category was metals and minors. he chose pea body energy. took home the gold on that. >> yeah, the whole space has been really on fire a lot of short covering there. so congrats on this one. i would still not get into this. you're looking at coal. if you look at the biggest user of coal, probably not going use that much more. i would much rather be in yach ral gas. >> is that the nickname you chose for himself? >> it's nice. >> nice. >> second category, hotels and travel. karen finerman sored to the top of the podium with the pick of 11% since the beginning of the olympics. >> that was nice. >> pretty much hit it out of the park with earnings. i actually think probably time to take a little bit of money off the table. >> on day three we asked them to give the best olympic sponsor

trade. sprinted to the finish. kudos to a guy out there recuperating from his try um if. >> as i mentioned, gold bond medicated powder. a big friend. >> well powdered there. >> upper torso. >> he looks awful good in that picture. >> he does. >> well, he did a fabulous job for himself and for the leukemia and lymphoma society. so hats off. great pick with the stock as well which is not uncommon. >> exactly. and in our final category. >> brazil has got a lot going on. brazil has got great things going on. the thing that is mysterious about how brazil performs is the biggest waitings. dogs.

so you really have made it by investing in banks and consumers. >> all right. so that was the fast money. there were no prizes. i teased. no prizes. >> thanks. >> all right. >> we will be right back. stay tuned. it's something you're born with. and inspires the things you choose to do. you do what you do... because it matters. at hp we don't just believe in the power of technology. we believe in the power of people when technology works for you. to dream. to create. to work.

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>> a very innovative business. we grew from when i bought the business. a lot of staying power. we're in a great position. >> absolutely not. >> after starbucks announced its partnership. so karen has been very active in this space. what does this mean? >> i think this is pretty terrible. and i think that, i mean, they got a lot of morphing to do.

you talk about how they will change the business. right now they get 62% of their revenue from hardware this square transaction puts that whole model highly at risk. that is a tremendous way to morph very soon. i think that he is several times, not just now but several times dized square. but think about it. starbucks the biggest retail mobile payment platform there is. so if this works, it is really highly ris ruptive. i think i heard you talked about similar to pets.com. i do not get that at all. i think any kind of disruptive change like this is very problematic. >> around the horn. >> gsu. >> big lots. >> short pay. >> dma? dam. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. it's great