well. >> we had the fab five u.s. women's olympic gymnastics team ringing the closing bell. we will see you at the closing bell tomorrow. >> thanks for watching. >> you can see the potential for the dreaded triple top. if you go back to april and may highs we are challenging them so you see a top. >> politics taking center stage. >> paul ryan makes this a vote entirely on tax and spending pacts. i think that is very difficult. >> people are still finding time for good old fashioned stock picking. >> upgrading to a buy and you see a problem with the medium up 4.5%. and we are, too. this is fast money.

>> live from the market site in new york city's time square. have we seen the highs for 2012? how are you trading this market that is struggling to be hired. yesterday we saw light eest. >> the volatility index spiking up. most of the day we were in positive territory. we have seen a lot of activity. a lot of upside. 2-1 calls been trading the last couple of sessions. and we're looking for a move. these levels are incredibly well.

he had mentioned the technical picture pointed out a triple top. >> triple tops or hate triple tops depending on which way you are positioned in the market. >> you go all the way back a year. . if you look at us the way for the murjing markets, it has been inconsistent at best. that tells me that china is nowhere to help out. the market looks like it is in a very difficult day. no headlines to really deal with out of europe. >> welcome to the best buy at

5:00. >> non-confirmation of the transports trouble. they think it looks like it is moving up. oil prices might be inticktive. just look back. we have had five consecutive weeks. we have okay awnings. it was very impressive. that has been very impressive, too. i am not happy about the brett. it's a separate time. i think there are underlying stories that you can buy. some of the consumer. particularly i like the industrials. they have been so beaten up. >> certainly a very nice move. there are individual stocks.

>> it was early that facebook highlighted theory tick louseness of facebook's valuation. >> as the stock moves up, the risk reward changes a little bit. but we are still long and have not sold. >> you have seen the mega cabs giving leadership for the first time in a long time.

>> obviously a lot of people need to put a lot of money to work that have been allocated to fix. >> and you also have them for performance. they are not meeting the benchmarks. >> there are very surprising stocks on the multiyear high list. consolation brands, highest level since 2005. mattell the highest level since november 1998. >> right. and that plays into the technology side. you talk about fwoogle and apple. some of the performance we have seen there. we have seen some of the margin continue to expand. talking about going forward. they see more demand coming forward. >> tyler has the latest on some

of the filings hitting the break. >> new stakes taken and facebook of all things i guess you would say. i guess maybe he brought in there and got it at a nice price. he has increased his stakes in acreytive health, and amazon. also increasing in broad com, cable vision and cameron. american eagle decreasing stakes. >> management holdings. he has take an new stake in facebook. these numbers, remember, go through the 29th of june. also dissolving is stakes in

amazon.com. dissolving stakes are two of the bigger money centers stakes. we just mentioned two things, new stakes in phillips 66 and national oil well. >> all right. that's it. >> thanks for crunching all of that. what stands out to me on the on set here, facebook. that sort of affects the question. you wonder at first where they got in on this thing. second of all, with the valuation down so sharply, is there some value here at 20?

>> one of the things i always think about is five weeks ago, six weeks ago that they, this is a snapshot of the port fol owe then. >> of that moment in time. i don't think if their long term holders, but i think they cough been in and out. >> what have you seen in terms of the options? >> put buying.

>> i continue to sell upside calls. i have take an dent out of the pain i have taken and the put buying continues to be literally 2-15. 5 they are not buying the money. talking about out of the money. >> kind of intrigued. if there was a month ago, that was probably close to the low. remember he was buying at about 10? i think that story has room to go higher. mainly because it's still so cheap and down about 10% from the london problems. >> so we ask where can you find value near four year highs? investment strategist at edwards jones which has $590 billion. edward jones named one of the top stock picking firms.

kate, it is a pleasure. >> you tend to favor what a lot of people favor. there is an argument that dividend paying stocks areover valued at this point. investors are paying 25% more for dividend paying stocks. >> in fact, if you look at the price earnings ratio of the communications sector, the communications sector is about 30% above its historical five

year pe and the utility sector is about 15% above the same. >> if you do great, learn something, the potential changes to the dividends to taxes on dividend, how do you think about that? >> i think -- >> i think the main thing to keep in mind. >> you have to realize for many investors that it is important for. the income tax rate.

obviously more on higher yielding stocks than on the ones the with lower yields and more potential for fwroet. >> i'm looking at your top tech plays. that's a name that has been beaten down just this past week. where do you stand on that name? >> we will look at it as well. i was looking for slightly higher yielding stocks. 8% or more. >> i'm looking at one of your holdings is johnson controls. 36% exposure is in the europe. do you think they are on the right track.

. the auto industry sales dmesically. that is why we are seeing it as an attractive pick today. >> how it impacts stocks. 80% of election years have yielded gains for stock. so you have that boois on your side, tim. >> although a lot of people feel that mr. ryan's appointment is something that will bring the

fiscal conversation forward and be a significant head wind. when i look to september, 24 is historically an extremely volatile month for stocks. when i look at the court ruling in germany, i look at people getting back to work what i think will be a third consecutive quarter. a simplistic model. so i don't think people are getting comfortable with this concept. and certainly i am. >> coming up next, walmart is hovering near. the best times may be over. stick around to find out. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,

you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... all ] i'm with scottrade.

>> welcome back to fast money.

we are live at the nasdaq market site. thought i would get back to headquarters. a pop in net flix. >> a rare move. behind that upgrade you can see the stock it's still a pretty big move. >> they kwould get smarter about their contest. >> the co-founder of red box, obviously a netflix competitor, resigned from coin star. otherwise a great day for netflix. >> thanks for that. i read that upgrade and it seemed like a lukewarm upgrade.

yes, it was two notches. at the same time he said there is more upside than downside potential. he outlines the bear case and then comes up and says i'm going to keep my price target at 72 bucks a share. >> sounded like a trading call. >> exactly. >> they will not hit their 7 million subscriber numbers. we will see. >> did he lay out the buying of content? that's the curious thing to me. >> he acknowledged that the cost would continue to go higher but netflix would get better and more effective. >> what do you like to watch? >> looks like the consume ser back. stocks continuing the strong earnings.

>> this is the question we want to get at. is kors stealing market share from coach? because they are almost polar opposites. >> coach is down 38% from its high. they have got some new products so i think it's kind of an interesting story just because it's down so much. >> you think a lot of that, such great momentum. do you think that the momentum money is out yet? who owns it? >> i think that you have some more leading to go, but i think now at these levels it is pretty attractive. you're still looking at about double digit earnings and

revenue fwrogrowth. they are continuing to expand in china. 20% over the next three years. i don't think it would take enough for the stock to move. >> i know you got out. >> everything. at what point now would you get back into kors? >> they killed it on every metric. stand there and just be shock and awe. that's what that quarter was. it could be great. >> let's talk about the world's largest retailer. hot spot for retailers seeking safety. d k shares keep hedging higher.

colin, great to have you with us. your note was an interesting one because you point to previous valuations and how walmart compares on a valuation basis to the rest of the market. i'm curious if there is a part of you. >> that's clearly the question. it's a question is the run done from people seeking safety or is everyone already there. about half way between what we would consider normal valuation levels and the peek that you saw in late 2008. and on an absolute basis, the closer peek is on 16.5 times. the valuation is roughly

equivalent. we had a pretty significant move already. >> are people drawing some type of a linear connection. which is where people think they will do it this year. which is a great great outcome that was dead in the water. >> it's a good outcome relative to walmart. i think what is interesting is if you look at the growth. this is a company when comps are weak they can leverage. what you are buying in walmart.

>> all right. thank you very much. let's talk about mr. pahlsson. he has new stakes. mostly been a seller. the new stakes are in cable vision and critics. new in company. here is where he has done some selling. disarming stakes in motorolla as well as sarah lee, and united

rentals. reducing the stake to 4 million shares to some 18 million shares. he has increased his stake in the spider gold etf trust. folks, that's pahlsson. >> do we know how many shares he bought of spider gold. >> there you go. >> a small increase there. >> all right. thanks a lot, tyler. obviously the backdrop to pahlsson is that his funds have not been performing very well over the past year and a half or so. >> not necessarily. it may very well be as a result

of re-democratdemptionredemptio >> he has got you know whats. >> they were better off just buying them themselves. >> obviously the s&p 500. >> to the extent that every time we need to say it again. i don't know where we are now. >> that does create opportunities if you do your work. pahlsson is someone that i think people will continue to watch.

>> the point i was going to to make is at his peek in assets he lost the most amount of money he has ever lost. in some sense on a percentage basis. he has lost probably a whole lot more money

with the fidelity stock screener, you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies and narrow down to exactly those stocks you want to follow. i'm mark allen of fidelity investments. the expert strategies feature is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. [ male announcer ] aggressive styling. a more fuel-efficient turbocharged engine. and a completely redesigned interior. the 2012 c-class with over 2,000 refinements. it's amazing...inside and out. ♪ join mercedes-benz usa on facebook for the best summer sweepstakes.

wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the company's bottom line, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby and good night" ] ♪ af-lac ♪ aflac [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. [ yawning sound ]

>> now a note with $271 million. a lot of shares come out the next few days. >> a nice quash. it was really about the margin improvement so nice job. >> resources was a pop and move 1%. pete? >> when you talk about the energy space, we have been talking about every facet. we are seeing unusual activity everywhere.

>> he owns more of the shares no now. >> a drop here. and that is putting it lightly. for groupon down 27%. >> two high end sales. >> and a pop of the year. news is brewing. get it? brewing? >> the president's campaign bus is stocked with white house beer so he can enjoy it on the road.

just a day after the president. a chance of four more beers. >> you are laughing. >> very good. >> anything with a home in it is pretty much. no different. now you have got earnings coming out tomorrow. september, an amazing amount of upside calls. >> company increased its buy back program last night. earnings and revenues grew about

30%. a lot of it was one time. i like the stock there. >> down 3%, mike? >> and we have a pop here for robert pattenson. appeared in daylight today to ring the opening bell at the new york stock exchange. he seems to have gotten over a recent break up. during a daily show interview. >> you were there. >> i was there. i saw him. i saw him. >> did you get a flutter? >> vampires are not my type. >> we are trading all the action

commodities. find out why there is a big move. dennis making the call on where crude is headed next.

>> welcome back to fast money. we are live in times square. should you be betting on a big move in gold? traders seem to think so. and we also heard from pahlsson. he a buyer of the september 155, 158 call spread this morning. >> would you do that? >> i think this is a pretty good

bet. i think everybody i have talked to, a lot of them are waiting for the big unwind. a way to make bullish bets and not spend premium to do it. i liblg the trades. >> you can catch options action. follow the show on twitter. oil prices rising today crude is up. does it have more room to run? the letter also known as the commodity's king. i am so quick to call you king dennis. i forgot about the letter. >> you're the only person who calls me king. >> somebody calls you king.

do you believe there is short term resolution coming? >> you have to believe that the economy here in the united states is going be doing better and you hope that the circumstances don't get worse. i have grown up in the commodity markets. starteded the cotton market and i was taught to pay attention to the turn structure. how are the futures themselves trading one against the other. and in oil, you have a very material backward. the front runs progressively higher. one of the first things you learn is you don't sell short a market. and brent is materially in backwardation, likely to continue to go higher. there is plenty of west texas intermediate group. they are short.

syria, middle east, iraq, this is what it's all about. wheat prices have come off a bit, corn prices have come off a bit. darry reports tomorrow. the impact on farmers. what is your near term call? although things have gotten better, what's the permits of this devastation. >> the corn crop is gone. it's under 11 billion bushels. farmers are not going to be in as bad a straits as one would imagine. the midwest will have problems but it's not a long term implication. and i don't think john deer or the rest of them are going to be

barishly implicated. you will see if the banks continue to come in, we will make the loans to get next year's crop in. >> dennis, always great to see you. >> nice to have you. >> of the world renowned gart man letter. in terms of the oil rally, i'm sure that is music to your ears? >> we have -- we think that they are going to see easing from china and we will get something from the ecb. not necessarily the fomc. i really don't think they have to do anything. i do think that we want to have a little bit more energy exposure. some of them have not participated much because of value there. >> the conclusion of 20 under 20. the most important two minutes of their lives.

>> unrivals network of mentors and $100,000. they will need to dazzle some of the brightest minds. >> each will have two minutes to present. all of your life work has to be condensed to two minutes. >> getting in front of a huge group of people is something i have a hard time doing. i am extremely nervous. >> i am nervous for them. we will see who succeeds and who stumbles.

[ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. okay, here's the plan.

you have a plan? first we're gonna check our bags for free, thanks to our explorer card. then, the united club. my mother was so wrong about you. next, we get priority boarding on our flight i booked with miles. all because of the card. and me. okay, what's the plan? plan? mm-hmm. we're on vacation. this is no plan. really? [ male announcer ] the united mileageplus explorer card. the mileage card with special perks on united. get it and you're in.

>> netflix, we asked you if it was time to buy netflix on this upgrade. what is the latest? >> anyone that tracks chatter knows that netflix is a hot topic. we pose that question. do you think it's now time to buy in on shares? here is what our audience had to say. lewis said i'm convinced that it's time to book profits on netflix, which i have been doing. thanks for upgrading the stock. simply based off of the lows and recent support, it has got a long way to close its gap. volume also very low. two big questions here melissa. what are the technical levels to

watch? and is net flix out of the dog house? >> good questions there. i wonder in the options market, what are you seeing? >> i think it's all based literally on this call that happeneded in the middle of the day. i think that's why you saw so much august activity. they have got to show us the money. they have got to show us how they will gatter this content more efficiently than they have in the past. that has been the overwhelming theme that everybody brings up is the cost for content is continuing to go higher. how are they going to defend against this and now this analyst thinks they seem to be getting better that. >> we are asking are you using the wrong etfs in your portfolio? here to break it down, five places you may be using the wrong etfs. matt, a lot of people out there using etfs for various reasons.

one of the more popular ones to fwetd broad market exposure. >> that's right. it is the wrong place to be. spy is the largest etf in the world. it competes for s&p 500. you never want to buy the first generation product. it can't reinvest dividend. in rising markets like we have seen presently. why not take the one that is getting better performance. >> not the place to be? >> that's right. dva has all the assets. if you look at year to date performance, it is getting outperformed. two things that are important. dva has huge exposure.

significant exposure to livestock and it has been a terrible investment for about 300 years. more of a pure play on the grains. more exposure to corn and beans. the oempb tn there, jja, you don't get taxed until you sell the product. you look at the charge of that thing. 5 the problem there is it is completely 'tis torted the market for volatility features. you talked about it a little earlier in the show. involved futures market is ridiculous. fostering about 180% a year.

this could spike short term if you get a blow up in the market. >> this is a slam dunk for me. everyone talks about mup as a great well structured product. a little bit. it has less exposure to california. we have mu nis pap issues you may have heard about. say what you will, on balance you take insurance versus non-insurance. >> you are saying no to the xlp which is probably in a lot of people's portfolio. >> certainly.

the bbc goes beyond just the 40 name names. >> xlp is a great bet. if you want more exposure, more domestic consumer staple names. it gives you that broader bet. same low cost, same liquidity more exposure. >> there is a pretty significant difference in liquidity. so it makes $7 million today traded. that seems like not so i will kid an instrument. >> it's a great point. if you are a large investor, can definitely absorb more liquidity.

works great. if you are buying huge or trading for the short term you are absolutely right. it's not so bad. >> matt hogan? >> coming up next we have missed it over the past two weeks. . dug up one of the best ideas you will be hearing on the desk tonight. we will lift that curtain and tell you what it is. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac

to provide a better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha! looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank, like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity.

>> the moment you have been waiting for. reveal the trade of the day. stephanie, take it away. >> the stock was down 4% today on a merrill lynch downgrade. we have been buying it last week. the largest iron ore producer. yielding 5.5%. i think it is one of the high quality companies down in brazil that i think you can get down on the cheap. >> weigh in? >> she has nailed it on the

fundamentals. i think people are underweight this stock. i think brazil is an an upswing. >> cool, wow. nice agreement on the side of the desk. >> got your first move tomorrow when you come back. stay tuned. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else.

tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade at charles schwab for $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up to tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 6 months commission-free online equity trading tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with a $50,000 deposit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5411. who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and...

is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription. [ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are, or may become pregnant or are breast feeding should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. talk to your doctor today about androgel 1.62% so you can use less gel. log on now to androgeloffer.com

and you could pay as little as ten dollars a month for androgel 1.62%. what are you waiting for? this is big news. >> time for the final trade. >> walmart, the stock is not cheap but the options are. use puts. >> bap, largest bank in peru. >> stephanie? >> disney. great quarter last week. we like it on weakness. >> karen? >> ar, they preannounced horrific numbers. the stock got obliterated. i think they will report some. >> tjx had an unbelievable report. they hit on every single topic they needed to. i think ross will do the same thing thursday. >> always a