"fast money" begins right now. have a great night. >> bordering on obsession. >> i can't believe that anybody doesn't wonder why the investor doesn't run. >> do and say all kinds of crazy things. >> let's not make this thing something that it's not. >> maybe it all is just a dream. >> it is not the grard going technology themes that we're investing in tomorrow. >> live from the naz dook market site in new york city's market share. let's get straight to the market here. stocks hitting a four year high. what is the trade here? what is a tight range it has been for so long. the dow was down 68 points and

that is the biggest drop we have seen in three weeks. >> you also have to remember that it was quite a range. we were up almost 55 points. that will look great. a little bit of a stick save. i think that really started the phase. >> maybe it is people that are short the market. >> the liquidity is so horrific that every time you start to see this market come back in, they wind up rallying it back up. it is work.

>> you mean the volume on the market? >> the volume on the market has been crazy low across every space and that's why you see a lot of safety bets that are still being bought. >> thank goodness that volume doesn't matter. so having low volume, we have been hearing that for two or three years. it doesn't matter. there is no room in the score card for that. >> those are all the people that own bonds that have now seen real principle loss as we have seen the ten year back up to over 180. that will keep at it. >> i don't see that rotation happening. people are in there for safety. they will not start piling into the u.s. equity market. proper qe by the ecb.

but i don't see that out there. >> i'm not saying be bullish but hedge funds are not leveraged up. there is a ton. >> sure. sure. >> very conservative position. >> every hedge fund manager has at most 40 wers with, as karen says, gross exposure. so they can come down. >> a lot of the the hedge funds are wonderful with the s&p much more than it was last year. >> art chokes are going steam. they don't believe it. will they believe it once we get

to 1440. >> 14.42 was the level we had a breakthrough. >> obviously that was a big story today. the most volleyballable public company. it actually hit a fresh record today. see off with the downturn in the market. downgraded apple to a whole gradient from a buy rating.

>> i kind of like to say we have all trifen a car in first gear. when you drive so fast in first gear and you step off the pi dal, the car lungs a little built. i didn't shoot the dog, i am just tightening the leech. >> your price target was $650. that stands from where we are now? >> correct. >> we got to look at what the product cycle is going be. my concern is they will be going into another realm that is not their expertise. will it go on top of the x box or under the dvd player.

this is a game changer. the markets may be a little bit ahead of itself. the other thing is along with the earnings per share decline. that's $88 per person for every man woman or child on planet earth. >> that's an interesting statistic. tds ds ds ds. >> i have seen both. the mar begins are going tell the story for whether the products are accelerating and getting good ground. this could be the first sign. >> let me see if i am clear. what you said is if achle comes

out with a product that is high in margin and in line with everything they have ever done since am has been re-invented. you aring are to put a buy on the stock when he could be up 50 bucks. your downside target is 6:50. that makes no sense. it is still 60% its growth rate. it is very, very cheap for such a high grower. it is one of the best companies out there. i am just not concerned about it. >> let me argue this point and that is that the market is evaluating an evaluation of apple. it's a value stock, not a growth stock. if it was we would have a 30 pe on it. that is something i would say in retort to that. >> that's opportunity. >> i would agree. but opportunity usually comes when people make a mistake or the market sees things

differently. right now the market is approaching the flirtatious levels. if we start to see more of the set top box, then i think it is a concern. >> kudos for downgrading a stock as opposed to at the lows. my question for you is what would cause you to shoot the dog to use your terms? to actually put a sell on apple and recommend get out of the stock. >> we will have to see what happens at the time. but one of the signs would be a tremendous deceleration orb acceleration in decline of the growth rate. a slowing of store growth. the valuation, you see that the stock does come down, you have the cash level support and the dividend level support. a lot of bad things would have

to happen. i think it's good to be prudent. >> we appreciate you joining us tonight. interesting points that lawrence makes. an interesting chart that he showed in terms of the sales growth. another product that pushes margins up. >> it is what apple has done all along. you have got a major product upgrade coming. my concern is i don't know if they could meet the estimates that analysts have started to put out there. >> if there is a stutter step on ipads or iphones where they depend on their iphone. if there is a stutter step, the stock is up $130. this is a huge move. so there is a stutter step opportunity. >> and historical trading

pattern. this is exactly what we have seen. the stock comes off. >> and the bigger macro take away is if you look at apple and the s&p, as soon as apple fell out of bed, it sold off. >> one of these days he is going to be right. >> yeah. i just don't know if this is it right now and i wouldn't be willing to take off all of my exposure. >> who knew they sold bow ties? i thought it was just flannel shirts. >> a market flash. mary? >> dell computers down in the afterhours trade because of weak second quarter or second half guidance. the company expects earnings at $1.70 a share. the company also coming in, the second quarter results which were five cents ahead of estimates.

the emerging markets. >> let's bring in a technology analyst for more on the story. >> what was your take of the quarter? michael pointed out that this is a turn around story. not a story that will unfold in one or two quarters. >> yeah, so the turn around is definitely taking longer than i think the bulls would have hoped. you know, basically going through a transformation from moving beyond a pc company to more of an enterprise player. we felt this transition. >> it's karen. let me ask the audience question.

>> part of the reason is it's not just because of the macro because apple, frankly, is gaining share in this space. but, you know, on the flip side, their enterprise system is actually okay. it definitely has more exposure than dell dus. they didn't raise the full year estimates. >> it definitely gives us more caution on it. but the difference is, on the

enterprise side, they have -- i'm sorry. on the pc side they have about 350 percent exposure. that is compared to about 65%. >> why is it taking longer and do i need to be worried about other software companies? or is it a dell specific thing? >> i would say it is dell specific. >> this is a company when they first started this transition, they were about 75% exposed. it's such a very large number. it's down to like 65, 70. so they have made some progress there. but it's just large numbers. just very large pc number that

they have been trying to press. i just think it's taking a lot longer than people had hoped. >> you have a lot of investors who bought -- who has a board seat we should note. increased position on hewlitt packard. >> i would go with hp. you have got to believe. i fwot to believe there are changes to happen there. i think what you will see tomorrow in the quarter is a lot

of cost savings. i couldn't get exciting with the windows 8 upgrade. >> and with the cost savings putting into work cloud computing and data storage. that transition is much easier to do with hp than it is to do with dell. i'm not sure how dell survives. i like a laptop but if i'm going buy one it's going to be an apple.

>> to quickly what he just said about dell. the implied move in dell was about 6.5%. that has a little bit further to go. as we know, debt is just a magnet for the stock. it's tough to think that dell is not going to have a tougher day tomorrow. >> interesting action there. next on fast, the real reason behind crude's 20% rides in just two months. george freidman up next. and later find out what keeps the ceo of toll brothers up at night. it's not the stock price. my one-on-one interview still to come.

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welcome back. let's hit some options actions here. the s&p 500 oil and gas. >> the exploration and production etf. we saw a big buyer of puts. paid 7 cents. we saw some really junky downside puts to lighten the load load. >> would you be looking to protect to the downside? >> i think i would be. oil going low ser what you would play. i think it fends on which

particular names you are playing. >> follow the show on twitter to get concentrated updates. >> dell is talking a lot about the unternty affecting the fact that they brought down their guy dance they are guiding to weaker revenue. they highlighted trouble in the consumer market. particularly the pcs. consumer segment was down 22%. notebooks down 26%. one analyst just asked about windows 8.

>> that is so much for the win eight holy grail. >> look, here is the deal. if you take a look at what apple reported in terms of their mac sales, they didn't blow any away either. the ipad is taking shares away from computers. i'm not so sure that it's entirely the macro environment. >> let's switch gears now. toll brours out with third quarter results. it has been a double year-over-year. i had a chance to sit down and talk about one of the projects in brooklyn. i asked them what he pays the most attention to. >> the one stat we look at most

is consumer confidence. it's not the interest rate. are they ready to move up and take the next step in their life and take the biggest investment i am going to make? that's really what we look at the most and we're concerned. right now the market is good but we keep a very close eye on that. the biggest thing we have going for us is seven years of pent up demand. many people have been waiting seven years to move on with their lives. waiting for the market to improve for their job security to be in place. >> rachel put another round of easing in some fashion to actually help or is that pushing a string? >> i think right now we are happen with the government staying out of our business. the one thing they need to do is ease the mortgage lending rules a little bit. we understand that in 2005, 2006, mortgage money was way too easy. you could get 100% loans. they have gone too far the other way. there are a lot of very well

qualified people that can't get mortgages. if they could ease the rules a little bit, that would be fine. beyond that, let's stay off of the business. >> we are on our 16th building in urban new york. but we have 15 more to come. where we own or control the land. and we are continuing to look every day for more opportunities. we are really making a name for ourselves here. >> and these projects are selling out. we showed a shot of the project on lexington in the east side. there have already been secondary sales in the market. >> that is a beautiful project to pass by. the most interesting comment to

me is how exciting is the pipeline in the projects around here. >> i think when the market is doing better, maybe they want to recoup and renovate these properties. >> go ahead, you will ask me. >> i want to -- >> i don't want to interrupt you interrupting me. >> are you saying that new home sales are looking topical? therefore, there is more demand for existing -- >> he is in a different spot. he has done great in his spot and his sector of that space is done rather well. if you want to play the overall immunity. >> if you want to look at wire houser, pays the dividend.

lumber has been doing pretty well. >> from sexy lingerie to a giant in the mining industry. we will track down some of the biggest movers. for the very first time we are asking you the viewer for your trade of the day. so be sure to tweet us. we will unveil it later on in the show. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving. make sure the news keeps coming with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. use the news links breaking stories with possible breakout stocks, options with potential opportunity, futures and forex with in-depth analysis. it's an all-you-can-eat buffet for all things trading. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. it doesn't just deliver news. it's making news. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account.

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>> time for pops and drops and moverers you might have missed. j.p. morgan? >> it has had a nice little stealth run. i don't know what it is. maybe jamie is still hot. >> way to work that in. drop for phillips 66? >> i like the name. it has performed well but i think the space has to pull back a little bit. >> a lot of people are actually starting to save more.

pop for urban outfitters. up 18%. >> that's right. the big winner of the day. earnings per share beat. there were sales gains across all of their major brands. the company rehired for a turn around. congratulations, sir, it's working. >> a drop for harry potter. seems the odds are in the hunger games favor. they have sold more copies on amazon.com than the seven harry fa potter books combined. >> pop here. >> coal stocks were on fire.

pardon the almost pun. they are very, very cheap except i think trouble towards the end of the year because that much has not come off. >> up 3%. >> caught in a little bit of a range trade. i would look at today's low which is 36. let it hold that low before you jump back in. give it a breather for two to three days. >> church and white? >> adding to their portfolio, they added avid vitamins which fwifs them a foothold into the gummy vitamin area. >> i was not sure if you were going to go fire alarms or pruks. >> drop here for facebook down 4%. >> i feel like it's ground hog day. facebook down 4%. still seems rich to me. >> drop here, down 2%. >> earlier this week the company made a 52 week high. this is damning as the downdraft

enters its second day. this makes a lot of sense. people pulling back as we get a bunch of housing data later in the week. >> and a drop for pitching. the half size hurling recorded 14 strike outs. he hit a two-run single in the fifth inning. throwing a know hitter is definitely not child's play. it has only been done about 280 times in the majors. next, find out what is behind the move in crude and if it is heading higher. jane wells is jumping into nike's new frontier. >> the new shoes, i heard from a lot of men who talked about cheap food. we also discussed whether nike's margins are out of line. we will have that after the break.

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>> beautiful day in times square

today. welcome back. rising tensions between iran and israel driving oil prices higher. we will continue to stress on the region to continue to move the energy markets higher. the forecast for the 21st century. he joins us. >> the question is whether there is going to be israeli air strike on iran. remember over the past years they have started ramping up the rhetoric. usually that goes on when there is some sort of negotiation or pressure being put on iran. right now it's the sanctions and this adds to it. what we have seen so far does not necessarily mean that we're going to see an attack. >> so what are the odds.

if you had to put a percentage, what would that be? >> we play that game. we put .15. 15%. in other words, if the israelis determine that iranianss have not just a device but a deliverable weapon, they will probably go unilaterally. but the problem they have is iran is a long way away. they don't have all that many aircraft to. operator: in that distance. there is a strong possibility that they will fail. they need the united states to participate in the attack. the united states has no appetite for another war in the region. they are terrified that the straits will be removed by the iranianss. it is not the most likely scenario. >> so, if you -- if you play out your scenario, you are betting

that iran does not really have the where with all to launch a nuclear weapon that will be effective. to me that means there will be a permanent bid under crude. would you say it's accurate. >> until the markets become more sophisticated about forces. so long as the rhetoric is intention, yeah it's going to go up. the israeli is going to be moving rhetoric up and down for quite a while. the iranianss know that and they will try to avoid it. but you cannot judge the risk by the rhetoric. at that point they attacked three years ago. >> we have seen this game for decades now. everybody goes to their different sides. iran gets what they need. is there a turning point, an inflection point here besides just whether or not on the front page of the "new york times" we see iran has a deliverable

weapon, what should we look for to say you know what? israel is going to strike. >> well, first, we have to see an underground test. the fact that they can test a weapon underground does not mean they have a deliverable weapon. it has to be ruggedized and miniaturized. the real indication is that they are going to test. until they conduct the test they don't know if it will work. that would be, in my mind, the line where the israelis have got to get serious about whether they will go. but they have to be serious about not just going. one assumption is that if they decide to take out the weapons, they can. it's more than a one day attack. the issue is not so much whether they want to take it away. even if they want to take away the weapons, can they? >> all right. we're going to leave it there.

thanks for your time. oyou know, it's interesting. mentioned the floor under crude should there be continued rhetoric. is there a cap on crude's upside because of the talk of release of spr in an election year? >> probably five or ten dollars higher than here. the truth is he said 15% chance. where is that down from or up from? i got to assume there is always a 15% chance. what is the most it has been? >> sure. >> here is the thing i wonder. if there is rhetoric that puts a bid under oil, why are we not seeing tanker rates move? people buy the oil to store it later. a that is being used by an end consumer. >> really over built the tanker space. >> but that has been so for a while. >> now they are going back on

that. >> but the older ones are clearly being pulled out of use bay the rates are so low. >> would you be willing to pay -- switching gears -- more than $300 for a pair of sneakers? >> nice segue. >> nike reportedly raising prices and will charge 315 bucks for a new pair of lebron james shoes. >> nik shares have not been jumping through hoops. could the lebrons tens up their gain? are they worth it? a youtube channel obsessed with athletic shoes, here is why they special. >> it has a hyper fused upper and the first -- >> whatever any of that means. >> so what could you get for $315 instead of shoes with

dynamic fly wire? here is news with the help of twitter. for the price of lebron tens you could own an ipad 2 or 315 apples. 16 shares of facebook or 678 shares of groupon, but which will depreciate more quickly. on twitter, for 315 bucks you could buy six days of health coverage for a family of four. john david silver tweeted you could buy a bed, table, chair, lamp and this rug on ikea. you want shoes? you could buy ten pairs of these grass lined flip-flops, more come for comfortable than nike. you could feed 100 people or feed yourself 100 times. but you think these shoes are outrageous? two of them will only buy you one of these.

>> those are the ugliest ones i have seen. nike is being asked not to sell the shoes because they represent twisted priorities. >> nobody has to buy them. >> nike missed street expectations. china can be a drag for several years. gross margin pressure is one reason. nike's margins are around 44% below adidas. women's shoes, on the other hand, apple margins on the iphone are 58% according to new papers in the sam sung case and the urban league is not saying don't buy iphones. >> what was the name of that website? >> nice kicks. i spent like ten minutes trying to read a shirt that says regret hurts more backwards. fly wire sounds like something

that would be on the mars curiosity rover. >> that is too hip for me. is this a reason, though, in all seriousness, to get excited about nike? >> no. definitely not. the volume is not going to be big enough. the only people that can legitimately afford them are nba play players. >> it is a luxury item. it makes you feel great. i like nike as a global brand so i would buy on that basis not because of these kicks. >> you're going get a pair, right? >> i'll probably get a second pair. exactly. but the stock actually sets up nicely. nothing to do with them. >> okay. next, first solar sores, but is this a rally you should run from? more "fast" straight ahead.

it's something you're born with. and inspires the things you choose to do. you do what you do... because it matters. at hp we don't just believe in the power of technology. we believe in the power of people when technology works for you. to dream. to create. to work. if you're going to do something. make it matter.

the wife. hey, babe. got the jetta. i wiped the floor with the guy! not really. i would've been fine with 0% for 36 months, but i demanded 60. no...i didn't do that. it was like taking candy from a baby. you're a grown man. alright, see you at home. [ male announcer ] the volkswagen autobahn for all event... we good? we're good. [ male announcer ] at 0% apr for 60 months, no one needs to know how easy it was to get your new volkswagen. thatth the power of german engineering. you have to dig a little.

fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason fw if dp request get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. >> earlier, the analyst who downgraded apple, we asked you if he made the right call. we have been tracking the comments. i guess by a lot of violent re-5:00s. >> you were absolutely correct.

traders on twitter are very defensive when an analyst insults apple. let's get you a couple of the tweets. i think the analyst is trying to scare folks out of their shares. and our last trader tweeting apple will crescendo and begin to lose a living room war to microsoft's xbox. do you buy or wait? >> the big pull back today was $9. >> they make a big deal. urban was up 20% today in one day. now apple for that 100 billion move combined 20.

>> can it hold 6.50 if the market decides to give anything back. you want to look at today's low end of the range and wait before you start to buy it. you have an incredible run up. >> okay. let's move on. after a big tumble, sored more than 60% in just the past month. are there reasons to remain cautious? joining us now is notable bear. good to see you. you have been right for quite some time. perhaps we are seeing signs of a turn around there. there should be a steady stream of announcements of us continuing to get our feet under us.

ds. >> this is all of the earnings leave the company. essentially you have a new company with a lead story. s i think they will significantly miss street estimates. i think this is a one-time thing. they lost $1.30 and $50 million in cash flow. >> this would be a one time thing. why go out of their way. and give guidance to the season higher than they need to be to keep them floored under the stock. >> they have another project they will close later this week. we want to stress this. we don't feel the street is correctly modelling the projects. they pull forward roughly 15% of

the lifelong two year revenue. . >> 100% gross margins? >> 15%. >> oh, 15%. >> the revenue they are pulling forward has no costs associated with it. so you see the huge divergences in the earnings. they lost $5. i think once people get the modelling right, realize the company is in trouble. >> what about other markets? you hear about japan starting to subsidize. is that a big enough market to move the needle in the solar space in general? >> the problem with japan is they closed the local market to other players. specifically preferred solar spent their panels and they are restricted in that market. so i think that looking at japan, it will be good for the

local japanese players that will not benefit. >> where do you stand? what's your price target on this point? you have said that it would go and become a non-operating concern or something like that. at the same time it is one of the only solar companies out there that is generating cash. could it be the last man standing? >> what first solar does is they sell solar panels and right now they are not doing that. they have u.s. projects why in which they are able to sell panels into. that is not indicative of the annual market. it is getting worse and i think first solar, given their lack of competition is its position. >> what is your price target? >>. >> always good to see you. where do you see on the solar trade? >> i am right along with him. every rally starts like this. but this space is so overshorted

that any bit of pop on anything sends these stocks soaring. he has been dead on before we got to this level. >> next on "fast," a very special trade of the day. we ask you the viewer for your trade of the day. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] it's a golden opportunity to experience the ultimate expression of power... control. [ engine revs ] during the golden opportunity sales event, get great values on some of our newest models. this is the pursuit of perfection.

w>> all of these positive things have been priced into the market. >> your first move when we come right back. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,

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who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription. [ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are, or may become pregnant or are breast feeding should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet,

or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. talk to your doctor today about androgel 1.62% so you can use less gel. log on now to androgeloffer.com and you could pay as little as ten dollars a month for androgel 1.62%. what are you waiting for? this is big news. >> etna. i am staying long. >> same thing. i think it's no love like etna. >> karens? >> mhp. we like it here. >> great move in gold today. bu