>> yeah, this is according to a insurance survey. a 112 mkt more likely in washington to get in an accident compared to the national average. where are the best drivers found? sioux falls, south dakota. not much to hit, who knew. "closing bell" is next. hi, welcome to "closing bell," i'm michelle in for march -- maria bartiromo. >> i'm bill griffeth, red flags out of europe, add that together, you have a recipe for a late summer sell off which we're having today. here is where we stand right now. off the lows, the down was down at 13,000.

now down to 13126. the nasdaq down 25 points. and for the s&p, the number traders tell me to watch is 1397. if you go below that you might have problems with the bulls. >> no doubt that comments out of injury put pressure on u.s. stocks today. the euro was said to have a 50% chance of falling apart. also, spain delaying a bail out until aid conditions are worked out. >> the market waiting for signs of stimulus from jackson hole tomorrow. let's talk marks. dan greenhouse with us, david cass, steve leisman.

ben bernanke has to deliver tomorrow, right? >> i thought you were coming to me the first because i have the best shot here, bill. >> it is very pretty. >> yeah, move out of the way, i think we have a separate shot of that if you want it. i think what bernanke has to say. he talked about how could it could do. he talked in a letter saying there is scope for fed policy to help the recovery. maybe he will put a little more meat on the bones, secondly we'll look for his characterization of the economy. the economy has been better than expected, but does he still think we're on a trajectory that is not enough growth. finally, discussion about alternative. whether or not there is some

discussion of using targets like nominal gdp or the inflation rate, or something along those lines. those are the kinds of way that's will characterize what ben bernanke will say tomorrow. >> how are you setting up because we don't know what will happen. >> one of the things i don't want to put the emphasis on is today's close as much as what happens overnight. 1397 or 1394 could happen overnight. watch how energy prices are post storm and everything right now. i think the market as a whole -- >> what if the fed disappoints. >> i think they will and they're looking for that and that's one of the reasons that we're watching the dollar. and in mar the reason why the fed charn doesn't do that is housing. it is brighter. >> what does disappoint mean,

though? if he speaking tomorrow, the real story is next week's data and the meeting the week after that. if there's a disappointment, it's like a ten day disappointment. >> i think it's defined as a fed chairman that comes out and says what he has been saying already. that the market will be looking for clurs of something new. an extension of the low rates, you know, discussion of different options, whatever that may be, does it matter though? could it make a difference do you think? >> let's be clear, the fed chairman doesn't make policy at conferences in jackson hole. he will talk about exactly what you said. he will expand on the fed minutes. i don't know why we should be expecting something meaningfully beyond that. >> because he did something in 2010. there is precedent that this meeting means something and maybe he rolls something out. >> he laid out policy options to

a degree that we didn't know about before. in 2012 we have a pretty firm idea of what's going on. steve is exactly right. next week's data and the meeting there after are far more consequenti consequential. i can't imagine that he will endorse something in front of the jobs report. >> what are your expectations and how are you positioning yourself? >> we agree with the last guest. we think they will talk about being prepared to do qe 3 if needed, but they will continue to watch it. in terms of positioning the portfolio, we would not get obsessed with storm's positioning. if the market selling off, we buy into into the weakness. >> steve, what is the chatter, what are the expectations there? >> the expectation is the fed

chairman will go as far as is appropriate for a fed chairman to go. that's the thing that's a little confusing to me. i understand that expectations are built up, but at the end of the day, the market new what the calendar was going to be. the data is very much on the cusp, and today's jobless claims was so exemplary of that. where are we? 374, that's one example. so there was always going to be the case that bernanke was going to speak and there would be a week full of data and then leading to the committee meeting. this sequence has always been known. i don't expect him to talk down qe tomorrow and i don't expect him to give a green light. >> what's the dominant discussion about the united states, qe 3 and bernanke, or the euro zone crisis.

>> yes. >> i've never seen such a short response. >> michael, what about europe? we got hints yesterday in that op-ed piece. it's clear he is trying to convin convince ge convince germans to buy in. >> there's more work going into what had been done earlier in the summer, that's rather positive, how soon that time table could come into play, i think that's a lot better. for those reasons, i think things are looks pessimistic there and that's why it carries into overseas markets. >> david, what's more important to you, what happens with bernanke, or getting the euro zone crisis fixed or delayed? >> the u.s. is keyed off of

europe. there has been a lot of hardship and slowing in the economy, and the fed has to do less. we're more focused on europe because we think there is a greater implication on the economy right now. >> thank you, we'll see you next hour with charles plaus. thank you for joining us. >> if you're just joining us, there is a sell off going on. all ten of the large cap sectors are in the red today. >> hey, bill, i picked out two sectors in particular because basically i can't do all of them. it's all about tech and retail today. even though that higher consumer spending data didn't help the overall market, higher consumer spending is due for better than expected sales from places like target, costco, and gap. costco is at it's all time high since the ipo from 1985.

let's take a look at this story. i think it's sad, an end of an era here. we all know that the stock has been struggling and now it's public float is below the 50% threshold. this stock has been part of the s&p since the 1950s. i want to show you what's happening with sony here. the relatively new ceo in a interview promised an aggressive turn around focussing on gaming, mobile, imaging. the shares are down 75% over the past five years. i put up a chart here for you. it has just announced a new waterproof tablet price. it's pretty popular in japan already. elsewhere, the speculation that amazon could launch new tablet devices next week, lots of

speculation about what it could do. it's kindle fire tablet contacts for 25% of sales and it is sold out. so if you like the kindle fire, you will have to wait, michelle, back over to you. >> should we be cynical they announce they're sold out of this product when only a week before they're getting ready to announce a new product? am i being cynical. >> i think you're being investigative. >> and we'll deal with this later in the hour. >> the dow jones industrial average is down. off of the lows of the session. the nasdaq is lower by about 26. >> we're just getting started on th this jam packed edition of "closing bell." >> amazon runs out of the wildly popular tablet. is this a sign their about to eat apple's lunch.

and fuelling sales, walmart just announced gas prices in 20 states. why this could be a bad sign for the holiday shopping season. and are the brits actually considering a one time tax on the upper classes? [ male announcer ] while many automakers are just beginning to dabble with the idea of hybrid technology, it's already engrained in our dna. during the golden opportunity sales event, get great values on some of our newest models. this is the pursuit of perfection.

hey there, bob, let's talk about the markets. bob, i cannot wait until we get over the bernanke speech tomorrow so we can finally figure out what's going on. >> we know what's going on, they told us, we don't think much is going to happen, you think it's bad now, very likely now, the market is in the hasn'ts of mr. draghi and mr. bernanke. when the prime minister of spain said no thank you, we're not applying for any aid until you

articulate the terms under which the conditionality, that through the ball back into the european union's court. we were down already because mr. bernanke is convinced won't say much, and we said we'll put off on applying for aide, that implies they need a more coherent package here. we're under the control of the central bank's president. >> i think spain wants the ecb to guarantee if they open a program, the ecb will start buying ponds. so far they only said if you apply for a program, we might buy on the secondary market, but no garn sees, and sane wants to know for sure. >> they don't have that approval yet, and they're waiting for

them to approve it. >> and that's why draghi wrote that op-ed expertise. >> they're going to articulate a very clear policy. there's a vacuum occurring in that time period between that. that's what we have to live through right now. my bet is that spain will apply for side in october or november when they get a clearer indication of what's going on. >> thanks, bob. investors are taking profits in a lot of stocks today. technology in particular, bertha coombs has the details. >> yes, the first shall be last. the technology sector up better than 4%. the nasdaq is lead by big cap names that have gained a lot. it's up, bucking the trend.

it's up 19% for the month. cisco is up as well. apple, of course, 9% for the month, and consumer names have been particularly strong. we know that the retail index has been hitting new highs among the best performers for the month, and among those names are costco and starbucks. >> thanks, bertha. if you want to buy an aman kindle fire today, you're out of luck. the company says it sold out of the devices. >> but amazon has a big announcement next week, presumably a new tablet model, so should this make apple concerned right now. alex thinks amazon is pointing a serious challenge to apple, but david says apple is still in the

driver's seat. should i be cynical they announce they're sold out of the previous ones and everybody has to wait for the new whatever they announce next week. >> it's a nice marketing trick for amazon going into the kindle refresh. there's nothing wrong with that, but what is significant is the 22% share they garnered and that this is a zero or near zero margin type of hardware project, and that's not good for apple trying to make serious margin. the rumor is that we'll get a seven inch ipad mini. that will mean that apple is responding to the threat, but runs the risk of cannibalizing the full screen ipad sales. so we think it is a real threat to apple right now. >> david, you don't think it's a real threat, right? why not? >> the kindle compared to the ipad, the ipad is a fully

featured tab let. the kindle is just an optimized device for amazon. if you want to read books, watch movies, or shop on amazon, it's not that versatile. it has a $200 price point. you have a value conscious consumer that will spend $200 rather than $500 at the time of the launch. now there is a $400 buyer. >> and they were not a product buyer in the first place anyway? >> yes, and apple will take advantage of that market opportunity, but it will probably be not just smaller but defeatured. the seven inch will not be as row bus as the full featured ipad. >> doesn't that play in that they have cut in and they will have to respond with a product in kind? >> apple has what is two thirds of the market in tablets.

android has been unsuccessful, and kindle has been the only successful device. but because of price point where they make just about zero dollars on it. so the business model is give away the hardware, make money on the consent. apple makes a little money on the software, music, and movies but good margin on hardware, they're the low-cost manufacturer. so our view is it will be a $300 not $200, but a much better device. >> we'll find out what it's all about, and then the apple announcement. gentleman, thank you for joining us today. and sheryl sandburg has had a busy year, and she has written a book on the challenges.

it's not a memoir, but a call to action. >> wow, she is a very busy person. you know how hard it is to write a book. >> so do you, but we wrote our books. >> she has a bigger job. >> about 40 minutes left, the dow back over 12,03,000. also, there is a big legal battle over the future of one of the most famous film franchises ever. >> big shots are going to give you what you snpt. >> >> oh, yes, find out why paramount is waging the war over the rights to make more "godfather" films. we love to hear from you, tweet

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[ all ] i'm with scottrade. oil prices are lower ahead of ben bernankes highly anticipated speech tomorrow. wti prices are under pressure as you said today, and we're talking to traders all day. they're not expecting much new

news. a couple other issues to look at, some of the selling pressure coming ahead of chinese data expected out this weekend, and selling pressure and profit taking ahead of the weekend. some of the traders that i speak to are gone for the long weekend. and watching the damage to refineries and rigth at this point. and the way they are shut down will restart. that's what we will be keeping our eyes on, back over to you guys. >> thank you, jackie, a duff day for the bulls, the do you was down a percent. a cause for concern, or a healthy pull back. maybe even a buying opportunity. we want to talk a numbers today on the market overall. we have chief market technician, and gina sanchez.

chooe in a, wh-- gina, what do of the sell off? are they leaving early for the weekend, or prestaging disappointment out of jackson hole? >> what kicked off the markets was spain saying i need to see real terms, and they also said the same thing, start following through. >> so it's more about europe than our own economy? >> i think so, and the run up has been quite a bit more about europe. pricing out the tail risk thinking that everything might be okay. >> carter, what about this market? we had a pretty good six weeks started by mario draghi doing whatever he said it takes.

what do you think? let's take a look at the chart. i have one chart that we can analyze. as a matter of technique. having had a big multiminute advance corrects, and then return to the gefl from which you sold off. the reason that is is because of supply, the market, two types, people who lost money but hung in, now they have a chance to get their money back. interested sellers selling and people who bought well down here, their member ri kicks in and they want to book games. and you back and fill. >> do you risk a double top? you either back away, or you back and fill. there is nothing in the individual components.

we think it's normal if you will, and we think ultimately after responding we will exceed the top. >> thank you, carter, thank you for joining us on "closing bell" today. >> we have about 32 minutes before the "closing bell," first, it was extended la away, and now they are worried about a weak hol lay shopping season? and he is one of the fed's biggest fiscal hawks and thinks more action can do more harm than gaud. charles plosser joins us later from jackson hole, wyoming. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer.

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we don't have to tell you how higher gasoline prices continue to pinch budget conscious consumers out there, but walmart now is trying to get them into their stores by helping them save on fuel costs. starting tomorrow, consumer who is usual mart's money card or

credit card will save 15 cents a gallon at some gas stations, and gift card user wills get 10 cents off. >> the retail giant says it's bringing back the lay away program a month early, so are they worried about a weak hol day season. michael, what do you think, is this latest sign from walmart mean their worried and they have to do things to get consumers in the door? >> better first, sorry. >> walmart is concerned about the holidays, it will be one of the sufer holiday seasons in the last four or five years, and they're getting hit hard in categories like consumer elect strongices and toys, this is a way to catch up for others in

the sector who have a big lead in the fuel competitor programs. this is them trying to watch on. >> they have been doing this for awhile. they're selling at a loss, but it has been an effective program. why now from walmart? >> as for the timing, i don't have an answer for that, but it's something they've been doing for a long time, i think it's more reactive as you see the competitive landscape as they cross ever more. i also think it's in reaction to the dollar stores. if you look at what they have been doing, their comp sales have outpaced walmart, and when gas prices go up, you can go to a dollar store and don't have to drive out to a super center. >> you say this is ina inspired

move by walmart. is are they doing everything they can? >> yes, one of their guys came from super value. he knows how quickly sales can fall off, and with target, costco, cvs, and all other key competitor, they have fewer fuel stations, there's cause for concern, that said, walmart is trying hard to lower prices. >> you have been a supporter, what would it take to make the stock more attractive to you? >> first and for most, i like to see the sales gab close with their main competitors for lower income consumers, and second, i

would lock in profits until we get better viz ability on the fiscal issues. >> let me ask you, one of the premises we set up here is that they were doing this because they anticipate a lousy holiday season, as thing things start to show down, does that mean they're anticipating a lousy shopping season? >> yes, adjusted for inflation. sales will be flat to negative for walmart. sales lag for the fourth quarter of 2011. >> what about the rest of the retail market though? are we going to see them come away from walmart to other areas or sectors of retail? >> michelle, you will continue to see a shift to dollar stores and to the better performing apparel retailers, urban

outfitters, american eagle, and target will hit walmart hard in canada next year, already hitting walmart hard across america, costco is doing the same, and you will still see cvs and other competitors in the super market sector taking a significant amount of sales from walmart, walmart was rated as the worst of the leading retailers in the u.s. and that's also hurting the company. the company is working to improve that rating, but it has not happened yet. >> one of the telling issues is when walmart begins their deep discounting. a few times in the last few years they have done it very early, are you anticipating that again this year. >> yes, i am. we look at the holiday season, and the tricks they're pulling out, i think social security a sign that the consumer is still

weak. we had stagnant wage growth and employment growth, and it's all signs of weakness. a lot of the retail con cements whether it's target or walmart, and amazon is very competitive, it's very difficult, so what i see for the next not just this holiday season, but for the next few years, i see a lot of pressure. the margins will get hurt. >> thank you both, gentleman. >> i love that phrase. the area is over stored. >> i thought that for a long time. there are way too many retailers out there. we'll take a break, 25 minutes left and the dow slowly coming off the lows of the day. >> a lot of traders have been worrying about the correction in the next month or two, is now the time to bail on stocks? >> we'll look at that, plus a god father film fight.

>> i know it was you, you broke my heart. you broke my heart. >> this makes me want to watch them. after the bell, who has the rights to make another film, is it paramount, or the family? >> were three films enough, or should hollywood make a fourth? first web the dividend, what company's stock has risen the most this year? american express, master card, or visa? it's a game changer. ♪ it means cleaner, cheaper american-made energy. but we've got to be careful how we get it. design the wells to be safe. thousands of jobs. use the most advanced technology to protect our water.

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risen the most this year? american express, master card, or visa? now the payoff, visa. are we headed for a big sell off? the vast majority of traders think we could. >> should investors take this warning seriously and start bails on stocks now? we have christian beats, and bob pisani, i heard you several times saying 90% of the guys say a sell off is coming. christian, when everybody says something, usually everybody is wrong. >> exactly the opposite happens. but we will not see a sell off. i think the fundamentals are pretty good.

the volumes have been light and we stayed around this 1400 level. so i don't think we will see a correction at all. we may see a couple buying opportunities. >> did i misread, you were sitting there nodding your head slightly as we were talking about the possibility of the 10% correction. >> you could see a drift downwards from here. you look at the work we're doing, and the fundamentals are vastly improved. we think you have a fully valued market in the united states. so if we were to be down a point or two, two, three, four, five, between now and the end of the year, i think that would be a reasonable expectation. >> we're sitting near multiyear highs for some of the major averages. >> yes, but we're on much better valuations than the prime hault year highs. the ratings at that point were more like 16 or 17. we're looking at a rating of about 12. but it's the free cash flow

yield which is 7.2%. last time it peaks was in 2003. so companies are still generating a lot of cash, and this morning's report shows that labor is not getting a larger part of corporate -- >> that's inflation that we know the fed likes. >> yes, so test well supported. >> what's important to you right now for valuations and help you make your decisions? >> i think the fundamentals are solid. that's not necessarily as important as the self inflected policy problems. so i think there will be a lot of uncertainty until we get clarity. when we do get clarity, you could see -- >> we just saw it's well blow where it was. >> yes, it would not be a

chpgs -- >> so, roberto, should they make another version of the "godfather" what do you think? >> referee: 90% of the guys think a correction is coming. and the guys have i talked to are so convinced that something has to give and they think the markets will come down. they spend a lot of money for options, but so far they have all been wrong. i hate to get back to europe, but tell me what will happen to spap and i'll tell you what will happen in the stock market. >> i'm not convinced it matters too much. spain is getting a bailout, we have known that for months now -- >> we don't know that. >> yeah we do. >> it's just going to take longer than the market wants.

>> what is making him so busy? if he's doing plumbing, and if he's doing some real structural work on a european banking union, he is busy. >> and he is fighting with the bank. >> you can tell just me, you're buying protection, aren't you? you're nervous? you're not paying expensive premiums -- >> we, september the 6th is a very important date because i think they will announce nonsterilized asset buying. >> if you don't what that means, don't worry, it's a good deal. >> don't you think they will wait for the german courts? >> no. they are talking about the pricing of the gold in the middle of the year, and the poll suggestions won. i think the banks will win on

this one. the policy -- >> 4 minutes left, down about 90 points on the dow jones industrial average. >> clint eastwood will be the mystery speaker tonight. will it make mitt romney's day? >> we'll look at that coming up in a moment. what are the real todays that the fed will take steps to fix the economy. one of the biggest fiscal hawks joins us live from jackson hole at the top of the hour. g quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use

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one of the big questions facing the eu right now is if they will issue euro bonds. france is in favor of such a move, but so far the germans have been opposed to the economy. some time ago, they asked the french finance minister about the bonds. >> are you convinced you will convince them to september the

bonds? >> not in the short-term, but in the future, for integration, this could be the end of the process, and we still have this idea in min, not as an immediate solution, but maybe later on. >> i think they will september. >> at some point. >> they have to. >> but then you need a whole other round of condition -- >> it's just going to take time. >> mitt romney set to accept the nomination for president tonight. >> the biggest buzz has been the fact that clint eastwood would be a guest speaker just minutes before his address, and that has now been confirmed by nbc news. dirty harry will be there tonight. he's not going to introduce mitt romney, that goes to senator rubio of florida, but apparently clint is going to introduce marco rubio.

>> clearly they leaked this early, right? >> this is the worst concept secret of all today. >> what i find so contradictory, it's usually the other side of the isle with the movie stars. . >> that's part of what they're trying to do, holly would is usually portrayed in favor of the democrats and not the republicans and i think they're trying to combat that, and what bigger star could you have? and a man who was once major of caramel, california. so he is interesting anyway. so watch for that tonight. we have live coverage, right?

>> yes, see it tonight. >> when we come back, we have the closing countdown. the war on the rich heating up in the u.k. and raising eyebrows here in the united states. will an energy tax help solve the u.k.'s fiscal problems? or is it global glass warfare. >> and who was the rights to make another "god father" film. at usaa, we believe honor is not exclusive to the military, and commitment is not limited to one's military oath. the same set of values that drive our nation's military are the ones we used to build usaa bank. with our award winning apps that allow you to transfer funds, pay bills or manage your finances anywhere, anytime. so that wherever your duty takes you, usaa bank goes with you. visit us online to learn what makes our bank so different.

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about four minutes left in the trading session here, and the tone for today was set this morning and you saw it in the euro when the spanish finance minister said they would not september the money until they understood the terms. we all know what happens to our markets when the euro goes lower. so the dow, for a time, was below 13,000. had some of the bulls concerned,

but it came back a bit. we're going lower here, we're down a few points, and we're at 13,005 they will want to watch that more closely. they want to see a close below that, 13094 was another number we heard. they were buying bonds, so the yields on the treasuries were going lower today. it was down to 162. what will be also interesting is what happens overnight. already the shanghai index has moved into bear market territory, down 20% from it's highs and it was down again for this week so far. so we'll watch that very carefully, and i'll get thoughts on that in a moment as we head

towards the close. what was the strength in this market or the least lower sectors today? the utilities, health care, telecom, consumer staples and financials were the best performers meaning they were down less than the other sectors in the s&p. we watched europe carefully and asia carefully, we're not the masters of our own fate right now are we? >> no, i think preston draghi will have a bigger impact. i think the criminal opinion is that it will be pretty low key. draghi is the guy to watch for. >> and we have angela merkel talking about waying to increase economic activity between europe and asia. >> yes, and i think they're trying to get backing from

china. i think part of her mission will be to show confidence. >> rewe wrong to think this will work itself out and it's just going to take time? early on the fear was that the euro zone would just crumble. if grease was allowed to go, others would be allowed to go at the same time. are we too complacent. >> no, two important things have happened. draghi is a very different animal. . so he really knows what he's doing, he's moving towards a far more better solution. and the other one is that merkel is now isolated in a way that was with sarkozy. she wants to be more accommodating, that makes a difference. >> good to see you, christian. as we go toward the