twitter and on google plus. stay with cnbc because "fast money" begins right now. i will see you tomorrow. >> did you wake up on the beach hung over this morning? time to wake up, traders. fear is the word this september. >> goldman sachs says market expectations are higher than their base case ahead of key events in september. goldman is recommending buying s&p 500 puts. >> wall street is telling people to get out of stocks. you have been too greedy during this rally since june. 5. >> maybe apple can bail us all out again. >> i just got the e-mail invite and a very interesting image along with it. it says it's almost here. it's the the number 12 casting a

shadow, that is the number five. that implies this won't just be called the new iphone but the iphone 5. >> trading floors, east hampton beaches and their couches, this is "fast money". >> live from the nasdaq market site in mork, i'm brian sullivan in for melissa lee. i believe she's back tomorrow. you're welcome, facebook ceo disclosing that he has no plans to sell facebook stock in the next 12 months. let's get to the very latest. julia? >> that's right. facebook filing an 8k with the sec. that headline is mark zuckerberg, he will not sell any of his shares for at least 20 months. he holds 444 million class b shares.

there were two directors who will be selling. it is suggested that both directors will be selling some stock but only to settle some tax obligations. mark just telling us that these were stocks were awarded one he became a director of the company. there are interesting things the company says they will be announcing their next quarterly earnings on october 23 and that employees will be able to sell their shares as of october 29. i believe that is moving that up from november 14, which was when they were previously going to be able to sell shares. and with holding 101 million shares to handle the tax op ligations. it appears this will effectively

do it. just shy of 4%. an interesting couple of details. and we will be focused on the october 23 earnings release date. >> thank you very much. >> what i believe the key take aways is this. zuckerberg says he will not sell for 12 months but secondly we're expecting a huge number of shares to unlock before the end of the year. what facebook has said is that 101 million shares will not unlock that they had planned to unlock before because they are going to hold them back for tax reasons. in other words, not as many shares will unlock as we had previously believed. so there is is a lot of headlines here.

>> if major issue is not about the shares although that is a huge part of it. it is about mobile. none of the share issues are going to resolve that or reinstitute that faith. so you still have to trade this. 1755 was your low. that has to be what you're shooting against if you're trading it or you buy upside calls. >> for me there is two take aways from this. the company may finally actually be managing itself to please the shareholders which is something zuckerberg said he is going to do. >> we just got a phone call saying that he is only selling the shares to cover the tax

purposes and that he plans to hold on to the rest of his shares indefinitely. i think it's interesting in light of peter teal's sail that you have mark making a big statement here and making a point to call us and send the message that they are holding on to the rest of the shares. >> well said, an important piece of news, julia. thank you very much. a lot of headlines here. mark is going out of his way to make sure that everybody knows that he is not selling because he doesn't see value in the company. >> i think you guys have all nailed it. i think this is a slight positive change in the margin. i think the news is that mark anderson is selling and he wants to manage that. the peter teal sale was viewed as a huge negative for the stock. the only real change here is that the outstanding share count will now be slightly lower but,

i have not talked to anybody who thought that mark zuckerberg was going to sell stock within the first 12 mornts. the real issue is the fundamentals. we're still not dealing with something that is dirt cheap. >> if you're modelling the fundamentals and let's say you have your spread sheet built. you have now got to adjust that model for 101 million fewer shares. >> the company is still going to use its cash to pay the tax bill. really what is going on here is the award of stock to employees

is compensation. they were prior to the ipo contemplating selling stock. now what they will do is pay the tax bill out of their own cash. so cash is going to leave the company in order to pay this tax bill so there is an offset. to your point it's good that the share count will be reduced. >> do you see it after some of these employee sales coming up that employees might leave? what's your expectation about that? >> i think so. i think that overall the stock crash has been a disspiriting event for a lot of people and there is certainly less reason for employees to stay at the company than there was if the stock were 38 or 45 or what have you. and as a result, it makes employees easier to poach and so forth. but i think one important thing to remember is unlike a lot of companies which grant stock options to employees, facebook actually gave them shares.

so the shares are still worth something. they are worth $18 a share. so that's not nothing. it's less than the employees thought they would get so they do have an asset of real value. >> i have got a quick question. there was a piece out today from morgan stanley. they talked about it looks like facebook is getting a lot more aggressive on the fundamentals, the sponsored stories, the mobile apps. are you seeing the same type of thing? >> the big hope with the story is in the third and fourth quarter we will see a re-acceleration of advertising revenue. if we get that, it will come from the products you just mentioned which is sponsored stories. in your facebook timeline feed whether you're looking at a mobile device or desktop, you will get the ad. it will be a new product that

allows facebook to monetize mobile. if that takes off, it is possible that we will get an acceleration. that is still very baked into the stock price. people have been expecting that. if it doesn't materialize, i think you will see some disappointment. i think to the point made earlier this is the lead underwriter analyst cutting his estimates and radically slashing the price target based on things not materializing. >> henry, thanks for joining us. we will talk to you soon. >> thank you. >> so guys, let's trade this for a second. i think henry agreed, the biggest point of the 8k is probably that there will be slightly fewer shares that will unlock. i don't think this is going to make you get excited about face

book. i think the plan is it was given the benefit of the doubt. when you had a boat load more stock, the story started to fall apart. i don't think this changes anything significantly. they still haven't done anything to become attractive. >> i couldn't have said it better. >> is there anything positive to clean from this in that it appears that facebook, zuckerberg, the board? it is the first indication that we have gotten that they are sort of aware or seemingly aware of investor frustration? >> that's how i would read it. >> i agree with you. i have owned it for a long time and it has been negative for me but i continue to wait for them to tell me why i'm going to tick

with the stock. from the management side telling us we're going to start managing as a pubically traded company rather than the way they have been managing for the first three months. you are not a private company. >> the lawyers seem to still be talking to him. i'm not going to sell it within 12 months. >> give me 60 months, give me 72 months. >> tell me you're going to hold me forever. up next, fear ramping up on the street. should you buy into all the pessimism that is out there? plus it is the the metal that should be the biggest break out story of the second half. find out whether the rally in gold is here to stay in the commodities king himself is here. we are back after this. [ male announcer ] how do you trade?

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>> it sure looks like summer is over outside. stocks posting a turn around in today's session. but a wave of pessimism appears to be in full force, especially now. the vix jumping 3% higher. the cry resounding across wall street, protect your positions. more volatility is right around the corner. so let's go to our traders. what is behind all of the fear? >> besides the fact that european politicians?

>> we all know there has been plenty of clouds out there and it has been difficult to navigate through the cloudiness. we knee that bernanke and jackson hole was something we would watch closely. i don't know how surprised the traders were down on the floor but everybody has been looking towards this ecb. the volatility index has been signalling, moving higher and higher and higher through the month of august. we have been trading at 1400. >> a year ago, i wrote a piece that spanish banks were the biggest fear that i had. an article that $96 billion has been pulled out of banks as people leave. the educated people are going to england or france where they can, you know, maybe get a job. spain is in a tough spot. 5 that's what gets you worried

here. those look better. you see housing data, that looks better. that doesn't look so great. we see are we on the precipice of something bigger? the fiscal cliff still out there looming. to your point, draghi is the number one issue that i'm talking to a lot of portfolio managers about. they are getting tired of waiting and i think they are running out of time. >> we will know in the next eight days what is going to happen here. september 12, german court rules on the esm. if they rule that that is an illegal bailout fund, then you definitely want to own these puts. spain is a problem but pair doxically, the worse spain gets the closer they get to a bailout. and spanish yields jacked up but

the u.s. markets didn't even react to that. they shrugged it off. >> 4,000 points since qe 1 was announced. >> we have got a fed at the ready. i don't agree with it. >> we discussed it about diminishing returns. you're looking at these levels here. there is lack of liquidity. it does tell you the conviction among the buy side, they are not falling in. it's some place that they want to see how the market plays out for the next month or so. look at pandora. these are names that you want to be buying. names that have figured it out. >> i think we're right to be cautious for no other reason, the markets have been up almost

eight% this summer. that is a dramatic run without a lot of great news coming out. for that reason alone, which is formidable. the problems they have there, i think you have got to have some protection, particularly when it's trading so cheap. >> basically suggested buy real stuff, not stocks. >> i think you could own the stocks and have some cheap retention. >> would you buy puts on individual companies or do you think the overall vix is cheap enough to buy the broader protection? >> that's a great call. for me i am an individual stock picker. i like specific names and specific areas. you get into the financials you got to love wells fargo, you get a yield. you look at the valuations and go to the pharmaceuticals

sector. you can go to tech but i stick with individual names. you look at the implied volatilities and you are still looking at what you're talking about with the vix which is very low protection right now. you can still buy names. >> okay, options desk, mike do you agree with those calls? you have your own call. >> my call would certainly be that i would rather buy puts in the s&p or spy. the reason is mostly implied correlation. right now the the cost of concern on the index has risen a little bit, it is still very, very cheap. it's very cheap on an historical basis. and on top of all of that, it's a whole lot easier to figure out. it is kind of challenging. go out and figure out how much net exposure we have to the market. you have protection, you didn't sleep at night. >> we will see you in a bit. september is historically the

worst month for the stock market going all the way back to 1900 but is there a rebound this time for september or later on? joining us is mark hol better. a great column today saying basically a september swoon is in order. then a recovery rally. why do you feel that way? >> a first look at september. it turns out that not only are the sebt season alties for all the reason we know. also right now there is way too much optimism. we talk about a wave of pessimism. i am just not seeing that. we track a couple hundred of them. right now they are more bullish than they are in early may even though the market is not quite back to that level. that suggests that there is a lot of optimism out there. history has showed us that the market rarely accommodates that kind of enthusiasm. we have a short term pull back

ahead of us. for the longer term, i mean intermediate term, through the end of the year, the basis of my column today was simply when ever the market is up through labor day there is a chance of the market being up higher than labor day at the end of the year. we have some rockiness ahead of us, but don't expect it to lead into anything more, you know, more serious than that. >> mark, brian kelly. you're tracking the -- the people you're talking positive are the newsletter writers and advisor advisors. everybody i talked to is bearish. they are short this market. is it possible. >> not at all.

>> the market picked the bottom of the correction on early june, i think it was june 4. they are not permable by any means. are they are a subset of the broader market? again i would just have to say that the proof in the pudding is in the eating. if you look, when this group of advisors that i'm tracking at least are very bullish, it's a dangerous sign. >> before we get to what the reaction is, we have breaking news on fedex. fdx cutting their forecast, coming in and seeing numbers from a buck 33 to a buck 47 to a

buck 43. they had earlier forecast a buck 46. fedex seen as a leading indicator, cutting its forecast for the quarter. look at what is happening to the stock after hours. is this the kind of macro worry that freaks you out? >> we saw it today with halliburton. a couple of week ace s ago, the energy space has been unloved. now you are seeing people lower their numbers across the board and you are starting to see other sectors hit by it. a lot of numbers coming down across the whole techty space and that is what will bring us into the mid 1300s. it could be lower when we look at political issues. >> i think you have got to be concerned when a number comes out like this.

obviously this is is a big macro play. think is why you stick with individual names. look at names like there are specific names that outperform. i still stick with individual names. >> we have got to go but it goes back something we have talked about for a while. you have got the global trade and the domestic u.s. trade and only one and a half percent of our gdp is exported to euro. they don't even, they are living their life. spending money and buying homes. >> up next, gold going higher and some say to a critical level. we will talk about gold, the hokies and b.k.'s hatred of

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>> i think it will get amazon as well to ship through the companies. >> it's going to be a macro. we will worry about ups. do we worry about amazon? ebay? what is this telling us about that? >> i think amazon, that's going to be affected by fedex's headline. there are so many other things. amazon is launching a new kindle. they also have their web services.

sitting down just below that level. prices up nearly 5%. could gold turn out to be the great out story of the second half of the year? >> gold does look good. i thought they did a great job. gold is really quite impressive. i am not a gold bug. i do not think that gold is the be all end all. it's just like the euro and

dollar and aussie. it did break out to the upside. it will continue to do so today. it's probably still going higher. they know that the central banks will be easing monetary policy. certainly the ecb will and so will the fed. >> maybe that was the answer to my next question. why the sudden resurgence? >> gold has such an upside. gold has sconsolidations. we have one more coming up in holland next week. we have the meeting. all of these things coming to

fruition at one time. confusion builds a bid into the gold market more often than not. confusion breeds bids for the the gold market. >> i always buy gold in terms of yen and most buy gld. how do you answer the criticism today? >> gold is going up in all currency terms. i am actually bullish for the first time in a long while.

i do it because during the day. if you have been long gold in yen or euro terms, you have actually done better. >> ask the people at my club. i'm a pretty good tipper. >> i appreciate you not slamming the public school education. we appreciate it. >> one lane granter to another. >> we will take care of the private school guys later. >> you have been noticing heavy volume in what? >> in silver. the slv.

>> and now it's gone off to the races. today, 4-1 calls. >> 185,000. >> and absolutely, they are continuing to look to the upside so keep an eye on the slv. >> you saw some notable action today. this time in gold stobs. >> i saw over 1,000 contracts. by the end of the day they continued to buy the other 2,000 traded up to an average price. risk. place bullish bets. >> mike, thank you.

>> check the show out on its new facebook page. facebook.com/optionsaction. up next it is the attack of the bears. we will reveal three names that traders are itching to get short right now. plus mario draghi in the hot seat this week. will his comments on thursday deliver or disappoint? we will give you the set up out of the key ecb meeting. stick around.

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>> welcome back to fast money live. fear may be the name of the game this september but there are still ways to make fast money. joining us with some of his best short plays right now is brad. did i get that right? >> you did. >> fantastic. there is a first time for everything. he is portfolio manager for the active bear fund. >> tiffanys is the first. we think they have an inventory.

much higher levels with silver and gold much higher. >> you smell discounting? >> not only that but the european and asian markets are much weaker than i think the analysts are pricing into the stock. >> name two. >> coach is the other. so coach. >> same reasons? >> they have a lot of competition from michael koors as well. as you move more into coach you will find that they are pricing and giving out much easier terms and the north america weakness that they showed was not really what we were looking at. >> and before our traders chime in the third name is fossil. the first two are related on the higher end. fossil is more of a teen retailer, watches etc. why them? >> their inventories are sky high. they have a really nice growth story that they are telling everyone. we think margins come way down.

>> let me push back a little bit on tiffanys which i see the inventory is up significantly from last year. two things. gold is not that much off. we are not that far away. >> silver is. >> silver is. i don't know how much of that is of their overall costs but the pe that this trades at is well below their historic average. >> if they come in below earnings. we just saw fedex totally blow it. we don't think they will generate what the street thinks. >> where do you think it could go? >> it is probably vulnerable for about 20, 25%. it is certainly not the type of beating that some of the smaller mid cap name could take. >> we really don't like to move over eight to ten%.

. it's in the mainstream now. we really do try to stick with it. >> just to stick on karen's point, i looked up the seasonality issue. in october, the ten year averages, they have both been up 7.5%. obviously if we see a macro sell-off, all bets are off. tiffanys and coach, seasonality issue is october is a relatively good month. it is a very good month. where do you stop yourself out saying i was wrong on this? >> let's take tiffanys. that is a name we have been short. we lowered our position as it has rallied back up. we have gotten bigger into it as our convictions have gotten better. huge volume spike down. right up into the 200. comes down on heavy volume today. as long as it continues to

exhibit distribution like that, there is no reason for us to be concerned. >> one of the names on your list is citi. for the most part, everybody pounds the table. >> citi to us is a third tier bank. they will have a lot of trouble. they are acting like they will move into the emerging markets and that will be their mainstay. they are getting ready to sell their wealth management division. it is the blue chip of blue chip businesses. i just don't feel like they are doing the right things to manage their businesses properly. >> thank you very much. a pleasure to have you come in. a little jab at city. they probably deserve it. >> putting everything together that brad is talking about, you are talking about a global slow

down. look at yum as a short as well. >> you're comparing -- okay. comparing tacos to tiffanys. >> when they missed by a penny, the stock pops that represents the risk. i think you want to be long put spreads. they have the licenses issue. that represents 10% of the sales there. i like put spreads and tiffanys. >> thank you very much. in the meantime, the euro falling by a quarter percent against the u.s. dollar before evening out. get to know mario draghi. that speech will be on thursday. joining us now with a look at how you can trade this week's most important events. i guess kind of says the state of how we are if the most important part of the week is a speech by a european politician,

effectively. >> it's not just a speech. it's the actual di sigs from the policy meeting on thursday. the actual economic -- this week, 25 basis points to .5%. we will have to see about that. overall i think the press conference shs which we newsed to announce new policy measures will be a large disappointment to the market simply because he announced a new bond buying program back in august by but reports have surfaced since then saying i am not going get the details of the clarity on that plan until after the german decision on the bailout fund which comes on september 12. investors might be kind of bummed out about this ecb meeting.

>> quickly, is your trade too short? >> it is. there is a risk for the aussie. i would wait for the gdp number to come in and see if we get a bounce in the aussie. look for a move down to parity. and put a stop at 103 .55. >> always a pleasure to get your instigt. you can catch more strategies on money in motion every friday at 5:30 p.m. >> the dnc getting started today. but will what the dems have planned actually woo america? stay tuned to get those stories right after the break. [ female announcer ] the next generation of investing technology

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>> democratic national convention kicks off today with

the party's platform focused on fixing the economy, among other things. ed bills joins us now to break down some of the key themes he expects to hear from the democrats this week and more importantly what it means for all of our collective money. do you expect maybe a little wall street/bank slamming in charlotte and thus a little concern for the banks this week? >> of course. we have obama running on protecting the middle class. a key theme to that is the dodd frank wall street reform bill. from that perspective, there certainly will be some of that. with an obama victory -- >> what are some of the key themes? maybe a little bit of we did this but wall street needs to do more whether it's policy, paying

taxes, etc. what other key themes do you expect to hear. >> it's all about a choice. look the economy is not where you want it to be but if you stick with us you will get the recovery and the middle class will be the beneficiaries of it. if you elect romney ryan, you're handing over the keys to the top 15% and all of romney's friends. it will be a little bit of an us against them. i think there will be some relief. the uncertainty and fight against it will be pulled back. >> is that relief rally extended to the rest of the market if we have an obama victory? >> i think over areas are certainly in health care. an obama re-election is going to say yes, obama care is going to be around. and that certainly is going to

be beneficial. too often in the times i have talked to investor is any risk is really overblown and regulatory risk is never going to be as bad as you fear. but it's never as good as you hope. somewhere in the middle giving that certainty, it does help. >> probability, put odds on it. >> democrats believe that the only way they get republicans on their side is by having them all expire and only voting to lower those rates on 98% of americans. >> thank you very much. i am sure you have got a busy week ahead. >> indeed. thanks. >> articulating. >> two real quick issues.

you have heard me say it before. the possible outcome is the liability is $610 billion. 400 billion of thoo tha is the tax policy ratcheting to where it used to be. 5 what does that do to the economy? sends the economy a little bit into a death spiral. most people, what's the engine of this economy? small business. they run as individuals. you think you're running up the rate on corporations, the small businesses are getting hit. now they have clarity. they don't hire. at the end of the day it's about jobs, people. and i am a republican. >> long republican. >> shocking disclosure. we would have never figured that out. i have to say this week, i was called a gop shil and one of the most liberal men on tv.

that means i am doing my job. we are not far away from the kick off of the nfl season. when we come back, pete will give you the winning play book for your fantasy team. key. stick around. the better you tra. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.

>> pete has got his fantasy stunts and duds. >> you have got to start with cam newton. he will run and throw for touchdowns. looking for calvin johnson on the outside as a receiver. he is head and shoulders the best receiver out there. and then foster. >> you pick number one overall? >> sleepers. russel wilson. everybody knows rg3 but not wilson. he will have a huge year. and david wilson. that hoeky is one of the best you will ever see. >> and the starting back before long. >> more fast right after this.

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>> very quick around the horn with names. >> i like boeing on the long side. >> pandora. >> okay. >> i like short against