important interview which we will bring to you this weekend. i hope you will follow me on twitter and on google plus. fast money begins right now. i will see you monday. >> stocks stuck in a september rut? but why? >> we're in a holding pattern? >> draghi said it would probably be three years and under, unlimited and sterilized. >> but it's got to be more than europe. does anyone have any answers? >> i want to bring in the president here. bring him up. let's ask the president. what were you thinking when you went after harold and kumar? >> our guys are never at a loss for words, or trades. >> i continue to be bullish. we still remain on the lower end. if financials stay strong, i look to pharmaceuticals. apple, that has remained strong. it is the volatility index.

>> fresh from the trading floor this is fast money. >> so will mario draghi deliver the goods tomorrow? are we in for a big disappointment? >> i think we will get some sort of an announcement. we have a lot to get through over the next couple of days and weeks if you will. i believe you will continue to get continued stimulus down the road and you have the fed as a backstop. some financials and definitely technology. >> i think the interesting thing about what draghi is doing is he is coming out he doesn't have to go through the esfs it says to

me that there is desengs among the ranks. >> i don't think it comes for a long time and i don't think it matters. i'm long more of the u.s. based consumer names. >> you wonder what mario draghi might or might not do. you wonder what ben bernanke might or might not do. are these tradeable events? is there a way? we have been down this road before. we are guessing what people are going to do. no idea. >> you weren't going say hi? >> that's my greeting.

>> the storm could happen on the upside. what would cause mark participants the most pain? my answer would be a sharp move to the upside. i still think a lot of people are trading. that's why i think the first move we will see is the upside. i am still in the camp that the world is coming to an end. we will have a guest on that adheres to that. i think you have to see how things shape up from there. >> the trade is up here.

it's going to be a hard way to make money. i think you have to roll up your sleeves and start looking at single stories. i think there has been a mazive divergence. we have seen the u.s. and europe outperform shanghai and the hang sang. there is a good deal of enthusiasm i think worked into the sbx and developed markets. i don't think that easing is actually accepted. i think that a lot of people are very suspicious. if they did, i think that would be a positive. >> you could have a situation where you have a bit of a coiled spring where things are not as bad as people expect. it's one area in the world that you see equities under valued. >> are you seeing positioning to

that eisfect? >> you know what is interesting to me? i look at icj, which is the correlation index. let's not get bogged down. that is when you see it drop, that basically is telling you that the price of index proex-text, the cost of buying puts is lower relative to the cost of buying single stocks. you take a look at the top 50 names, i see a lot of names that i think are stretched here. the walmarts and proctor & gambles in the world. low growth or no growth names, i don't see why anybody would be interested in trying to ride that trade any further. >> let's bring in the most bearish strategist. let's bring in adam parker. adam, good to see you. specifically the number on the s&p 500 and you are taking a

look at price to trend earnings. what does that mean? >> we think companies are overearning and the estimates are too high and the trajectory will continue to decline. how will you feel about earnings this year? you will feel worse than you feel now. they may solve it from having serious problems but the growth is still bad. most people's base case is a recession. fundamentals are okay. if you track where we are this quarter, certainly the corporates are not as good as the stock market, the level. maybe the reverse of a year ago where the market was going down a lot and the companies are saying it's not as bad. >> if there is a central bank put in the markets and all the central banks around the world and a couple of them come in with easing, how does that factor in? >> you guys are traders.

our house call is that there won't be any qe 3 until after the election. that turned out to be ripe for the marks above where it was then. you got the cyclicals working a little bit. people were chicken trading it. >> i don't really like that. at the end of the day, people make more money. >> i get the logic. >> you would agree that it definitely takes place? it feels like the last leg of this is people starting to rotate out of the bond market and flush out the equities.

i think it's late in the game. obviously you do as well. markets can overshoot long in the week. >> the year end view is a frame work, right? earnings are going to continue to disappoint. you have to be tactical. early july we upgrade energies. if you create a frame work, mine says extreme ten year. bad for multiples. i think the street said 115. we're at 99. nobody is really worried about recession earnings. i found somebody who is bearish on earnings yet. >> let me ask you this question. in terms of sell on the news, i think the bond market despite

what dan said has reflected much more of the global put. there has been no buying equity markets that have done well this year. up single digits is not great. why would there not be some on the news. that money then go into equities. >> they are not just the result of the government creating money. they are indicative that deflation is a real risk. at some point you run out of -- you can't do 100 qes. we have to guess whether this is the last one. maybe it's already in the market a little bit already. >> margins have been pretty impressive. can they stay this high? >> if the estimates are right,

the earnings expectations are way too high. it's margins that are a problem. >> the companies took them down sharply. let me give you a data point. the the animals are betting 86% of them next year. >> we had the rnc last week and the dnc this week. >> you know, i think we have gone through these things without much volatility in the market. not a big reaction either way. the market seems to be the way the law is written.

it's a 500 basis point impact. i think if you solve two-thirds of it you have very little growth next year. >> certainly it is. when you analyze data points it still points towards lower data points next year. >> they have sfoe kused on stemming systemic risks. they have not done any sort of growth. we're not getting the sort of growth that one would expect after that.

to me i think investors may start focusing on where the growth comes from. is it baked in the cake at this point? i don't know. but caution will be easy. >> wac at headquarters with the latest. >> another casualty of guidance. ver phone stocks. >> the company missing analyst estimates because of some charges they would have beat it otherwise saying that revenue would fall below where it was supposed to come in for the next quarter. maybe this mobile payments company can't hang around with what other technology is coming in the force. that is a real problem.

>> they have clearly been right. i think you had an interview with the ceo recently. at a certain point, valuation becomes interesting in the stock. >> by the way, verifone shares down 24%. coming up neck, a special back-to-school channel. stick around to find out which retailers are making the grade. which one could soon be feeling the pain of amazon proportions. that's up next.

how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.

>> i love make-up. it's something that we're all so passionate about. if you can find something that you're passionate about and figure out a way to work at that and make that a successful business, you will be happy in doing what you're doing. >> she loves make-up. >> i do, too. what's your fashiopassion? >> pencil erasers. it's odd but if you're passionate about it, you can make a lot of money. >> that's a trade school. >> yeah. when that happens, you're lying. >> i love make-up? >> she wears a lot of it. >> yes, she does. >> all right. is amazon about to steal apple's fire? they will unveil what many expect to be the latest weapon in the tablet battle.

>> those windows phones don't have a shot. >> that's not cool? it's yellow. >> that was a set up for disappointment. stop talking about know kia. we can talk about microsoft on the surface. there are a lot more serious products that they have to do well in. disappointed. >> i have said it before. their market share is significantly greater than apples.

that's where i put my money. >> in terms of the amazon launch, i'm curious what you think. should you be worried that they might be squeezed on the markets? >> they are getting more on the market. they are building out their eco-system, too. i would say also by the way, the new tablet, broadcom is going to be in that. >> amazon has become a major player. could its momentum mean a big mass for the malls? a lot of back-to-school shopping has come back.

>> back-to-school is not amazon's largest season. brick and mortar had a good back-to-school season. we anticipate brick and mor t tore. >> we are picking walmart. destination for back-to-school. the dollar retailers and family dlaur all did extremely well.

t.j.maxx and ross continue to do very well. >> let's continue to talk about that. >> it's more than a double in a very short period of time. does the stock still have legs here? >> their business model appears to be well positioned. they will have some weakness. moral base and positioning. those flee fok tors are worrisome when you're looking at the department store. >> do you think this starts to reverse and what some of the initiatives are doing starts to work and they take share back?

>> you create a very easy opportunity to gain share back. i don't think that penneys is addressing that. our challenge is around what pennies actually sells. >> so every name that you have mentioned rightly so have been the names that we have seen performed and now perform over the last year or two year? is there a dark horse that you follow? >> when you guys look at retail as a sector, you see a sub sector.

great secular momentum behind it. it appeared to get really hammered when the express scripts mess was back in july. . i think unfortunately, they have fwot a number of these key retailers.

>> mike looks different. there is something odd about him. anything you want to tell the folks out there? or me? >> you must be talking about my birthday. it is my birthday. >> we won't ask how old you are. >> you can answer. no he won't answer. >> we have got the trade on all of today's big movers right after this. about once a month. drive around town all the time doing errands and never ever have to fill up gas in the city. i very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. last time i was at a gas station was about...i would say... two months ago. the last time i went to the gas station must have been about three months ago. i go to the gas station such a small amount that i forget how to put gas in my car. ♪

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>> they had another great turn out. we asked you if the solidarity with his shares could mean a bottom for the stock? here are the results. 13% of you say that shares are definitely heading higher. 46% of you say regardless of where shares head next, uncertainty is still too much of a risk now. look at us. >> look at you two. >> we didn't stand next to each other. >> they can do that?

>> follow us on facebook. fast money. quipping and quips. >> i might post something on this. >> go for it. >> they don't want intel to be a monopoly. there is 0 reason to buy here. >> yelp is a popper. >> since the lock up, the stock has been a rocket ship. the ceo is beginning at citigro citigroup's conference today. >> i think there was rotation. i don't think there was anything more than that. the stock has held in there pretty well. i like it under the mid 55

level. >> first he came out and initiated some underperforming stock and he traded up. i tell you, it's not the bottom. i don't see them paying as big of a dividend. >> sprint was a pop today. >> if the sfoe is going to be presenting next week, the stock looks like a stretch to me. >> and we got a pop for beef. biggest kwhecheese burger weigh in at more than a ton. the burger was so big that a

special crane had to be brought in to flip the patty mid way through cooking. you think that thing is cooked all the way through? >> what do they do with something like that? >> the town has a feast. >> it's illegal in new york. you can't super size in new york. >> good point by you. >> this stock was due for a bounce. it had one today.

>> got a pop ford up 1%? >> yesterday's great sales numbers. the auto cycle is still alive and well. they have fuel efficiency technology. they already lowered guidance substantially so i think expectations remain low. >> a pop for the general, dollar general. >> we just talked about them. they came in, beat the bottom line. revenues are basically in line. operating under a halo. >> thigh were up until yesterday. this is bad news for a stock that is pretty richly valued. >> you said so many smart

things. >> we're playing happy birthday music. >> i'm trying to ignore that. >> mike's blushing. that's cute. a russian business man proposed with an elaborate plan to fake his own death. fake blood and a phoney car crash. after his girlfriend broke down in tears, he sprang back to life and popped the question. she said yes. i would say no. >> that is the worst thing ever. >> that's a traditional russian ceremony. >> that's wrong. >> great tune. little "love hurts" for you? fantastic. >> coming up next, a commodity that may be the most spot on gauge of the global economy's health. and it is tanking and tell you why it should be on your radar next.

>> welcome back to "fast". want to check on goldman sachs?

>> yesterday, a report upgrading the stock. the goldman is one of glen shore's stop bets in this space. it's up 20% year to date melissa. we're all going to be waiting to see what the earnings look like in a few months. >> thanks for that. >> it is one of my favorite plays in the financials. i think volumes are so far down. m & a is so far down. >> concerns about a global slow down. a look at the current quarter. also took a hit on the news.

how big of a red flag is this for global growth? we have to go into the fedex forecast. a mar ma majority of the take down was because of fuel costs? can we actually connect the dots and say there is trouble ahead? >> they did say. >> yes. >> steve was on the halftime. if everything here is predicated on continued china growth, there has got to be some sort of problem. i think they are trying to tell you something. not unlike we may have seen in p p p 2007. >> especially ahead of their october analyst.

you have got seasonality coming with the holidays. >> no doubt about it. these product launches among a lot of different consumer electronic companies fuel a lot of this demand. the stock has traded a very narrow range a lot is predicated on the restructuring. and you may see stocks like this really start to crater. >> you have been noticing protection buying in shares of ubs?

>> they sold the 80 calls for about a buck and a quarter. what's interesting, of course, is ubs pays a dividend, about a dollar 20. what the shareholder is using. >> you can catch more ever friday. all right. there is a new way to gauge the health of the global economy and it's not pretty. is this proof the mining bloom is over? he also, of course, as he has chouted many times. everybo

everybody. >> what research are you seeing that other people are not seeing? >> i think the key is our supply and demand analysis. you have a deflation and the construction bubble. but you have a ton of supply coming from a number of mining companies. i'm sorry. and bhp. they could simply reduce their production and correct prices. now you have a ton of new guys. hitting the market. with the slow down in china, china is 60% of the iron ore market. the new supply is causing prices to tank.

>> we mentioned you were able to identify some solar shores that work really well. it should crush all stocks in a sector. why those particular stocks? 3.6% last time we checked which is low for the industry. 27 buys, four holds. they say the company is just too big and they don't want to do the analysis. as those prices hard, they have an unfunded pension liability. >> why do you think they have

not stopped production? >> i think china right now is very similar to japan in the 1990s. people thought japan they were going to turn on the fiscal tap when the economy started slowing and reinvigorate growth. even though the still makers are losing money, china does not want them to lower capacity. gdp growth will slow. china is ak esser baiting this problem. >> not only have they not cut back on capacity. >> they maxed out at 700 million tons a year. >> so i'm at the $50.

>> i agree with you. >> you realize everybody thinks that is crazy. they said i was a fool. iron ore prices are in the 80s today. china is stimulating the excess capacity. he likes them as a short. >> he likes not to like them. >> exactly. thanks for stopping by. what is the trade here? if he says these stocks will continue to go lower, i'm not saying go out and short them, but don't bet against them and buy them. >> the one thing that could make and break the market. plus, underperforming hedge fund managers are finally safe to come back. stay tuned to find out what strategies they have up their sleeves.

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>> question for you. what has more sway over the market? the ecb, the fed, or apple? the world's most valuable company widely expected to unveil the iphone 5 next week. >> listen, obviously it's a little bit pedestrian. to me you have this german constitutional ruling. you have. >> the stock is reaching all time highs here. so much anticipation. if phone looks like the 4 or 4 s you don't think that investors will be disappointed? the stock makes up 5% of the s&p 500 and 20% of the nasdaq.

>> the trade has been a run up into the launch and a cool down after the launch. >> what holiday season? it's september. >> it's coming. >> sure it is. >> what should i get you this year? >> iphone 5. >> a battery pack thing. >> there is a lot of stuff that is on the horizon but if it doesn't happen, the stock is going to have a hard time. >> which strategy should they be using? the author of the little book of hedge funds. always good to see you. >> how are you? >> we are talking about apple and apple is one of the most

owned stocks. >> most of these managers are not doing well or in the long short stage. if you look at the index, about 60 to 65% of the index is long short. with the market up 13, some of the better managers are like kind of tied with the market. it will run up faster than the hedge funds. that is putting a big trag on the industry. here is what is interesting now. we're starting to see some funds move into the vacuum of the banks that are not lending money to businesses. the bank will rep the specialty hedge funds.

the hedge funds are almost becoming like the consumer household finance corporation. we also think that the macro environment is getting a little bit better. you will see the long short managers that own aple and will still be struggling. >> steve weiss. how are you? in terms of what the major asset al kay tors are doing, are you still seeing most of the money being allocated to macro. >> i actually think that i had a conversation today. it was a large university

endowment that is now thinking of reigning back their long short balance. you will see more into credit, into specialty credit. >> always good to speak with you. >> great to talk with you guys. >> stick around to find out what is under the curtain in our trade of the day.

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>> the moment is finally here. time for the trade of the day. >> this is not sexy. to me like i said earlier today, once we get by some of the stimulus stuff that investors are expecting, i bought a put spread out to january. this is a no growth stock that people crowded into because of that dividend. it's up 1% over the year. they get a lot of future growth

from emerging markets. i don't think they will get it. i want to look out to january for the third consecutive earnings. >> do you agree with the direction of the trade? >> i don't know why he bought it. to me he didn't see any opportunities that he hid there. it is a hiding stock like everybody else. i agree. and we have seen them falter before. >> it's not cheap. definitely not. but you have a ceo that is under the gun. he will either make this work or get out. >> this is a $200 billion market cap company. i think the stock is up 10%. i think it's slightly artificial. i think you see the stock. >> find some ceo to come in and run a $200 billion company. that's a named ceo. i'm with you on this. >> we got your first move tomorrow when we come back. see you tomorrow.

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>> i like the fine risk short exposure in u.s. multinationals that are not growing. >> guy? >> hi there. now bounced today. i think the bounce lasts. look for the stock to go north. it's a great story ch. >> stephanie? >> i think it's time to overweight technology into the strong fourth quarter this is a company growing revenues and i like that a lot. and the valuation is still attractive. >> i am far from a gold bug but guy convinced me that gold is the place to be. i would recommend buying. some easying by mario. >> and before we go, we like to