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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 17, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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bond -- stocks take a breather but what a ride. >> what chance do we have in two years? >> that is a goal that is very attainable. >> you know ben is not taking a breather. >> if bernanke is betting his wallet against the price of the market it is tough to fight it. >> a tendency to wash away our worries. >> the average worker in america is very much smaller than the income of the average ceo. >> rushing the line fresh from the trading floor this is "fast money." live from the nasdaq markets i'm melissa lee. apple crossing above $700 a share in the after hour session.
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it has been trying to make a run. what do the markets say today? >> the option markets say this stock could potentially go higher than 700. we have been seeing activity for quite some time a little higher than where it had been trading. ever since it broke above the 52-week high it has been off to the races. the news about how fast the iphone 5 orders are just extraordinary. everybody on the street are excited about features whether it is thinner, lighter or faster and the build out into the entire ecosystem. add the ipod part of this to the iphone 5 some of the refresh this stock could see 750 in not too many sessions. >> you were excited about the features. >> it sounds just like me. thinner, faster. >> you are lighter. absolutely. >> again, every dip looks like the world's coming to an end in
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terms of apple. every time it has been a tremendous opportunity. now you haven't seen one. you were hoping to get one last week on the announcement. so the stock giving the benign tape. there is no reason to think the stock can't continue higher. >> after hearing the new rollout of the iphone 5 i tried to get involved with the samsung galaxy s 3. you can't get away from the ecosystem on apple. it feels like you are the nerd at the table. >> that's the truth of it. >> this has been an interesting time for the iphone release and what apple is doing in other parts of the world which may offer more upsides. china mobile hasn't unleashed a network that can support this. if you look at 1/3 of the carriers offer the iphone. you have the ipad mini next
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month. i believe that samsung news being nerd at the table was something that was going to give us a short term high on the stock. i was wrong. i do think that this is a company that on valuation still looks very interesting. so much good news has been priced in. at some point you get to a place where it is difficult to move the needle. there is still significant smart phone growth coming from asia. that is probably 50% of smart phone sales at this point. >> let me ask you an intell intellectual question. can news be in the stock with a decent valuation? >> people need to approach apple as a value stock versus a growth stock. there is no question this is a growth stock. there is plenty of room for it to go on both sides. it gets to a point where it is a very crowded trade. it is more of a technical call. valuation and growth is giving you both. i think there are a lot of
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people in the trade waiting for the next level of news. >> i want to get in the weeds. auo, it is a $3 number. it was listed as far as the ipad mini as one of the people supplying the screens along with lg. i'm on that trade looking forward to it for the next month. >> in terms of the options market are premiums high on apple at this point? >> i guess they are high if you go way out on the money on the calls. we saw september calls trade today. that would be a heck of a run. i am a nerd at the table. i still have the black berry. when yahoo says they will not support the black berry you know black berry is in trouble. as far as apple is concerned i think the interesting thing is apple has a history of running up into a product announcement and selling off or under
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performing. obviously the iphone 5 will be such a blockbuster that they will break that. there are probably hedge funds that are caught short here who are anticipating that or planning to get well this quarter. they are throwing in the towel. they are paying $700 a share. >> how earth shattering? apple topping 2 million in the top 24 hours. 23 iphone sales per second. can you imagine that? for more on apple's moves let's bring in the head of the technology research team. your price target is 710. are you feeling low right now? >> obviously since upgrading many years ago we have been having to take up the price target every since. we will see how the opening
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weekend comes this weekend. at the end of the day i think numbers are moving higher. >> you are a little more conservative when it comes to the range on the streets. what has you concerned? you sound open to raising the price target but what has kept you back? >> basically supply. the key issue is the new screen where the touch pad is embedded inside the lcd retina screen. there is only three companies out there that are supplying these panels to apple today. can we actually supply 40 or 50 million screens in the december quarter? the answer to that is unknown. i think they will be in a good position based on what we have learned so far on the guidance. so i think they are going to be in a very good position. >> it seems like everybody has a protection something north of 40 million of the iphone 5s. let me ask you this. on a margin side is that an area that you are concerned at all?
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>> that is a good point. this is a completely new hardware design. when that happens what we have learned is the margins on the product actually decline about 800 to 1,000 basis points in the first full quarter as we try to ramp up production. the important part is after we get through the initial period margins come back and are a normalized state. we think it is in the low 50% growth margin. we will see the bump and we think that is factored in. >> let me go further into my call on asia where i am excited about apple. let's go into the competition. on the hardware side it is difficult to differentiate apple from samsung and lg. at that level i feel like the guys who are able to do it cheaper may be the ones that do it better effectively in the eye of the consumer. this is the future of the iphone market. when i'm talking about asia i'm
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talking about the part of the iphone market that is under penetrated. >> that is the key upside to the story at this point is the china smart phone market. china mobile is the world's largest carrier with over 700 million subscribers of which we estimate is 20% is post date. 140 million subscribers. that will move the opportunity for apple tremendously. even excluding that we think the theoretical threshold penetration has 18 months to go before it slows down. once we get china mobile we have a couple more years of growth. >> we don't have details on an ipad mini. we don't know if that is a product that will hit the market. what is the best guess as to the margins on that. i am wondering if apple will hit margins soon. >> we estimate that the margins
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on the ipad are about 40%. so with the mini product we don't know the build and materials so it is difficult. if i had to guess 30 to 35%. i think from martin's standpoint it will be difficult for apple to go higher. with the growth margin dollars coming in further i think the earnings will be able to grow nicely. >> thanks for your time. appreciate it. there is one thing that keeps you up at night what would that be? >> maybe amazon. the mini is going up against the kindle fire. we are trying to do things differently. we are trying to make money on transactions not when people buy the machine but when they use it. there are parts of the ecosystem that even nerds like -- guys like steve can actually use. >> amazon is the only other player creating the ecosystem like environment the way apple
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does. amazon is the key to everything. you have retail and cloud space and the hardware. there is nothing but the law of large numbers keeps you up at night with apple. >> i will say this. my argument to you on this hardware issue is when you are looking at apple versus other smart phone makers it is not about the hardware. a lot of guys copied apple. it is about the ecosystem and operating system. once they get the launch into china and into china mobile that is where the explosive side could be. >> we have to take a break here. >> we continue to give you the best ways to play. up next david henry ceo is giving us a low down on one of the hottest pockets in real estate right now. much more "fast money" straight ahead.
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let's take a step back. ben bernanke saying he has a bottomless pit of money to put on the market. we asked what are the best q eternity trades. >> give you more detail but emerging markets are the beneficiary of flows. i think gold will test the highs. >> gold showed a breather today. >> everything was a breather today. everything was over 80. we are seeing way oversold. i'm not surprised to see the pullback. it is a very quiet market in terms of volumes. hedge funds who are in today said this is too much. this is what hedge funds are paid to do is take profit here. no question these trades are
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alive and well if it is a bottomless pit. >> what a stud. >> waves won't hurt you. >> "grease" was a great movie. look at the week last week. down a little bit today. i think black stone is the name you want to be owning with the money floating around out there in the stratosphere. >> i'm still in the gold miners. with the hunt for yield that has to come back. it is lower from where i sold it three weeks ago. with yields where they are you have to get something with yield. >> i'm still sticking with the financials. you are talking about some of the financials. the ones i would stick with give
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you a yield. i like the jp morgans of the world. i think you can go across the board and the bang for your buck with a name like bank of america. >> another trade getting a boost. reit up more than 29% year to date with the fed pledging to keep rates at historic lows until mid 2015 there could be more room to run. joining us is the ceo of kimco. to understand your portfolio it is simple. commercial property values have an inverse relationship. this is a fantastic environment for you. >> property values are going up and the net asset value is going up substantially. >> how are you taking advantage of this sweet spot that you are in right now? are you acquiring more properties or taking advantage
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of the low interest rates? >> one significant way we take advantage of this is in terms of refinancing. as our debt matures we are rolling this debt down to much lower rates. and our portfolio we have close to 500 mortgages. the average interest rate that is maturing today is 6.5%. >> what could that mean? >> powerful earnings. >> walk us through in terms of tenants. the theory here is being performed that keeping interest rates low will help everybody and that will trickle through the economy. do you see that working through? >> absolutely. our tenants are retailers. with lower costs of capital they are more inclined to expand. we are seeing many national retailers resuming expansion plans and increasing store counts. >> i have a question. in terms of like let's take about a bed bath and beyond.
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is there value in a best buy? is that what you are looking for, a beat up story that might have a turn around? >> best buy is one of our tenants. right now they are struggling in terms of what their business model is. for every best buy there are probably ten other tenants expanding like crazy. i would say best buy isn't a great example of a tenant that is doing well with low interest rates. >> some others that are would be tj max or whole foods, bed bath and beyond and cost co. >> there is still a bit of a bar bell. >> you buy into that. the middle is no good and it is a low end and high end. >> i wouldn't say no good. the high end is doing very well. the nordstrum and sacs and dollar stores are doing well.
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>> i am curious about tjx. you are seeing potential for expansion from names like tjx and discounters. some of the lower ends like dollar stores and dollar tree? >> very much so. the marshals of the world are expanding store counts 50 to 100 stores. marshals just went up to canada. so we are seeing dramatic expansion from the ross stores, bed bath and beyonds, tjx. >> in terms of your rents and lease rates, are they remaining firm or are you able to raise them? >> we are beginning to raise them. effect sk rents are increasing and occupancy is increasing. it is all good. >> thanks for coming by. we appreciate it. coming up next we are giving you the trades on the day's biggest losers. and we will talk with shutterfly
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we asked you to pick the biggest potential post-rally loser from three stocks. rackspace, tiffany and lululemon were your choices. >> land slide. >> they think lulu lemon will fall. >> i like what they are doing on the online side. they had incredible growth there. when you look at the higher end nike has been doing well and underarmer. >> are there are a lot of shorts on this one? >> there are shorts. >> i mean shorts for sellers. >> it's cute. >> yoga pants? >> bike pants.
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>> i don't want to know. for more polls like us at facebook.com/fastmoney. time for pops and drops. we start with drop of cliffs natural. >> a great bounce off of a horrible six months. jp morgan downgraded the stock. >> netflix was a drop today. >> it has had a couple of tough days and a couple of tough weeks. initiated with the sell in a $50 target. i like the name as it starts getting into the lower 50s. the fact that they have moved themselves more towards the media side with television where their biggest gains are and less of an impact. >> drop for ak steel. >> environment with china and the concerns about the eurozone you have to wait on a lot of these names. can you play it for day trading?
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of course. i would rather wait for season ality. >> copper down big. way overbought. we are talking about the big drop in oil. copper had a big drop. commodities have been week. if you look at today's spectrum i don't think there is anything broken here. watch indonesian production. >> pop for blooming brands up 4%. >> casual dining company parent of names like outback steakhouse with an $18 price target not that far away from where the stock is at right now. >> i have a soft spot for that blooming onion. >> 98 grams of fat. not that i care. >> a pop here for mei xiang gave
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birth to her second cub. the baby bear is yet to emerge from its nest. sometimes the odds aren't just black and white. >> what's the gestation period of a panda? >> i have no idea. that is a good question. when they come out they are like little albino things. creatures that have to crawl. >> gestation is seven years. that is why they are endangered. >> are they endangered? >> i don't think so. pop for the gap up 2%. >> they hired rebecca bay as creative director. i like that for a number of reasons. the stock has been a monster. it is due for a breather. gps pushes towards $40. >> aggressive. pop for tenant health care up 2%. >> when you see the 2% there is
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much more to it. it moved to the upside. when you look at the volume today 28 million shares trading today. much more than the normal. >> drop for vulcan materials. >> the judge put a prohibition for activity. friday it expired so it is free to pursue vmc and so far nothing. >> drop for group on down 9%. >> hate to beat up on a chicago based company. stock is down most in the month. it means there is compression and group on doesn't need problems. >> got a pop for tesla. >> we are talking about the auto
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tesla. major resistant at 34. i'm not chasing this. >> pop for facial hair. contestants participate in the first ever british beard and mustache championship on saturday. more than 100 men competed for top honors. judges split hairs in a number of categories incleeding free style and musketeer in front of a sold out crowd. >> it's a family reunion. >> in the front and the back. could apple be serving up a picture perfect storm for companies like shutterfly. we will hear from the boss of shutterfly about how they are taking on the competition and much more. stay tuned. in america today we're running out of a vital resource we need
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we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square. jackie with a market flash.
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>> we are watching oil prices. it was a volatile session today. we plunged $4 today in 20 minutes. the fourth biggest move in the oil market this year. the group said there was no technical trading issues to cause the drop. some saying we saw profit taking. some say it was a technical move in a different sense. >> thanks so much. of course on the floor of the stock exchange. the rumors about a release which were quashed by the white house surfaced. >> we have seen historically that an spr usually is short-lived anyway. anytime a produce is. you want to be buying the momentum trade. that is higher. you want to be buying that momentum trade right off of it. think of it as free money. we have to think about the city call on refiners. the sector has been on fire
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recently and took a hit after citi downgraded. >> phillips 66 is interesting. they downgraded the stock to neutral but raised the price target from 49 bucks to 40. i think it is going to 49. we talked about this stock since it was mid 30s. although it was down small today i think the stock has room to upside. >> he feels as if they will all beat on earnings. unless i read that poorly thee feels they will all beat. he thinks margins are in question. they are all up huge. maybe he wants to hit the cash register at this point. >> i think it is a lot of rotation in the commodity space. look at nickel. nickel prices which have lagged. nickel was up 6% today. how do ayou play that? these are names that are world leaders in nickel. you are seeing guys looking to find the rotation rally.
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>> by far the most active space we have seen outside of the financials has been in the refinery space. when you look at the different names moved to the upside that continued into the late part of last week. on this dip it is an opportunity for these to go higher. i think phillips is well within its reach. apple not the only tech company releasing new products. microsoft getting ready to release the new windows in october. >> microsoft has been lost in all the apple news. the interesting thing here is that windows 8 is likely to be as big a change an operating system as any windows products. it will change the graphical user interface and people think that is a huge floor. we saw a seller of microsoft put spreads. specifically they sold 12,000 of the april spreads.
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they sold the 29 put and bought the 27 put. they collected 54 cents here. the stock is 10% above this level but the thing is they are only collecting about a quarter of the width of the spread. i don't think this makes a lot of sense. their break even is 28.46. it is not inconceivable that the stock would get down there. >> are you a believer in windows 8 for microsoft given that the data points we have gone from aren't necessarily good in terms of power. >> nothing to do with cfo resigning. intel has been an under performing. i am a believer in microsoft the stock. i think it is going to continue to sort of move very slowly up towards $35. thinking makes fair points but i think the stock will go higher. >> check out the shows new facebook page at
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facebook.com/options action. photo sharing competition has been ramping up. apple is waiving the i cloud storage as well. shutter fly ceo joins us now. good to see you. >> thanks. >> got to address the stock price. on that day your stock really took a dip. can you address directly in terms of -- does this keep you up at night at all? >> it really doesn't. you see a lot of short money moving in and out of the stock but the long term holders keep on the dips. our market is about $30 billion in the u.s. we are going to monetize photos more profitably approaching $600 million this year. >> you said you are the only company monetizing people's photos. i would think apple would have the capability of flipping on a
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switch and being able to do that, as well. >> they have been competing with us since 1999 through i photo. you can make cards and calendars. we have a large percentage of our customers using apple's photos to access the shutterfly. shutterfly believes in being you -- to the consumer. >> the shorts in the name and many feel this is a business that can be comodatized. >> without vertical integration our 15 billion of our customers images and cloud base service and relentless service of
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turning memories to products we have been able to outpace and outgrow the competition regardless if they are little giants like wal-mart and cvs and apple. >> the second quarter by most accounts were a strong one. some analysts expected something more granted third quarter sort of a no man's land in terms of holidays to drive people to print photos and albums. what can you tell us about the fourth since i would imagine that is an important quarter and the level of emotional experience you expect to have in the fourth quarter. >> the fourth quarter is more than 50% of our revenue and the vast majority if not all of our profits. out of my eight years at shutterfly i have never been more excited about the number of designs and products and user experience across our four lifestyle brands. we are set for the fourth quarter and we are excited. >> in terms of your mix of business 95% are consumer.
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5% are enterprise seeming t have a higher growth rate. do you see much more opportunity in enterprise and how do you make the case to businesses that this is a service they need? >> the four color digital print on demand industry is about $6 million. we are just getting started. everyone knows of shutterfly on the consumer side. we are getting calls from very large fortune 1,000 companies. we are helping them go to market through sales and direct mail and helping them turn customers and leads. it is an exciting part of the business for us. it smooths out and gives us greater capacity to utilization and will lead to greater free cash flow. >> you made it clear you had been competing against apple for some time for these latest features don't concern you. you are launching a brand new fresh this week. what is that? >> we are updating our brand to
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be more relevant to our consumers. our consumers are largely female. they are well educated and they really care about taking their pictures and turning them into creative output like photo books and cards and calendars. the brand refresh is exciting for us. that will compliment our acquisition of tiny prints and our newest brand, treat. four brands meeting the social expression needs of our consumers. >> thanks for your time. we appreciate it. the ceo of shutterfly. this stock has been a monster since it ipoed. >> when you break it down you definitely get a little scared when you are looking at the stock. some of the strategic partnerships and broeth potential from these are the reason folks are willing to buy this stock. for me it seems a little bit too much of a premium valuation.
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here's your invoice. apple above $700 a share. it cost $701 after the after hours session. the expectations are high that this iphone 5 is going to be a real big one. >> you are going to wait online and camp out? >> cobiellas. >> the bricks are roaring back to life.
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in the past three months russia is back up. brazil up 10%. did we miss the boat? >> brics were the most loved at one point. probably led by brazil with the assumption that china is a market that people aren't playing. why i like the brics. first of all if you talk about the opportunity coming out of big ben qe 3 capital flows you are not at the peak people usually buy emerging markets after a ton of money was piled in. in brazil president is going after legacy parts of the economy that were less competitive. you will see concessions taken away from some of the biggest state players. i want to play it czz. this is a distribution play of
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fuel. we talk about china back to our apple conversation. china mobile 700 million subscribers just getting to convert their legacy back bone to a place where they can begin to take on the iphone 5. if we talk about one-third conversion this is a major event. i don't see hl here. russia raised rates last week and letting the currency flow freely. we know where oil is going and what it is doing. if you want to buy on margin russia is your best market. if you want to play it and don't have much exposure we talk about it here. they are the google of russia. they are the most dominant player in russia still fighting off google. finally india i think this is probably the most exciting story in emerging. ind you needed to open up the economy. friday they said they were going
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to let foreign retailers in. that's great for wal-mart. it's great for india as a place to invest. they said they are going to let minority stakes. today they ease requirements for the banks. i think the industrial part of the economy is picking up. tata motors is a name. >> one quick question on china mobile. will they have to subsidize the iphone when they get it? >> they claim they are not. they haven't so far. if you look at what china has done they have had to pay the price. china mobile has pent the entire career subsidizing something. we have to watch and wait. this is a very exciting development. >> most people might not look towards japan for easing. let's bring in director of research and trading at aspen trading group. i want to touch on the u.s.
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dollar. we hit fresh highs today the highest since may 4th. are we moving constructively higher in that this can last? >> this has been a massive move. dollar lost about 8% against many majors. i think this selloff theme is coming to an end. i think the rest of the banks is going to step up. i think that is going to put a cap on how low the dollar can go. >> is that part of the reason why you are switching to buying euro against the yen? >> i think the yen is going to become the funding currency. maybe we will start with the euro side of the equation. we are seeing weakness on the news that the spanish economy minister saying we might not need a bailout. they will put in the request for a bailout. that will put the bid back into the market. i don't want to do it against dollar. i want to do it against the yen. we are a rising interest rate
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environment. that would put an offer into the yen market. plus bank of japan oofficials are there ready to intervene if we get much lower. i think euro yen is a great trade to play in upstock market. >> you are looking to buy in a pullback. >> i want to put bids in around 102.50. stock loss lower. i want to take profit around 10 # 5. i got stopped out of this trade with subscribers on the fed meeting. i think the up trend continues. >> thanks for your time. see you on friday. friday being "money in motion" at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. one of our traders is looking to cash in on a name. stick around to find out what is behind this curtain in our big trade of the day. i look at her, and i just want to give her everything.
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top s&p sector in 2012 is up 24%. what are the best trades right now. tracking your questions on twitter. what do you have? >> in the past month financials have more than doubled the gains in the tech sector. we asked which stocks you are buying. jonathan says i'm shorting goldman sachs until mid week. rollover says i am enjoying the sure party on bank of america today. let's take a look at what gaven has to say.
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he says i bought jp morgan in the 30s. i never doubted jamie dimon. what are we thinking about? >> multiple choice. >> i am still going blackstone. greenhill is another name. if you are making me choose -- >> why don't you like those three? >> goldman went up to 120. bank of america just scares me for a lot of different reasons. i think jp morgan is muddling along. i think the most interesting bank trades continue to be blackstone. >> what ben bernanke is doing should be good for what bank of america is in terms of mortgage lending and loans? >> he also left out he speaks about as well as i do bb and t. wells fargo, those are names that i think avoid the marquis
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of risk when you think about risk. >> where do you go among the three choices? >> i got jpm after the great franchise. i finish taking profit today. let's move on for the moment you have been waiting for. >> i have been. >> trade of the day. >> kkr which is kfn. they are investing in financial assets and national resources, real estate. you get an incredible dividend yield. there is a little volatility to this. when you look at the yield somewhere between 8% and 9% this name continues to work for people in their portfolio. when you are searching out yield i think this is one of the names where i think you are very, very safe for the most part to get some kind of a yield. >> and the fact that leon cooperman is very involved in this stock.
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>> private equity source of plays. do you like it in this low interest rate environment? >> these guys are cleaning up and have an opportunity to put capital and have an opportunity. people are taking more risks. the exit strategy is coming available again. markets were closed for a long time. they are able to unwind a lot of good deals. the yields is what pete says. if you are on board these guys are making money and spinning it out. you may have lost capital appreciation. it is a high yield environment. >> want to get more trades like the one you just heard then be sure to join him on september 21st and 22 nd this weekend in washington, d.c. for the invest like a monster conference. >> he's a monster. >> a pan thee on of investor greats. [ mujahid ] there was a little bit of trepidation,
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not quite knowing what the next phase was going to be, you know, because you been, you know, this is what you had been doing. you know, working, working, working, working, working, working. and now you're talking about, well you know, i won't be, and i get the chance to spend more time with my wife and my kids. it's my world. that's my world. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing a stunning work of technology. introducing the entirely new lexus es. and the first-ever es hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection.
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to provide a better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha! final trade. >> big profits in jpm. >> czz. >> tmo. >> aetna.

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