was down to 1.8%. tomorrow it is all about housing. that does it for "the closing bell". "fast money" starts right now. stay tuned. see you tomorrow. >> stocks stall. >> the market wants to go down. give it a break. i don't want to be a buyer. >> but being a bear hasn't worked out well this year. >> i think the investment environment is growing more dangerous are. at a time where sentiment is expae expanding and so is valuations. >> so if you are not going to fight the fed, maybe gold is your best bet. hive from the trading floor, this is "fast money".

>> live from the market sight in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. mary thompson has the detail. >> i'm having trouble with my ifp here. goldman sachs cfo is retiring. he is going to be replaced by harvey schwartz who is the co head of securities at goldman sachs. he will become a non independent director and the company plans to appoint some non independent directors. mr. vinier is the longest serving executive and one person called him the best of the best. the conference call with mr. vi vin vinier starts right now.

>> thank you. shares are trading slightly lower. i thought what mary said was that david vinier was the best of the best. who was harvey schwartz? hum? >> this doesn't change the uncertainties hanging over goldman though. if you look at where goldman has gone in the last six weeks, this is a stock that is priced in a fair amount of good news. a wall street legend who is retiring is not going to be appla applauded. the stock gets pressure but not a disaster. tim has it right. going into this. we have everything and i bet you have somebody who is an expert on that area of the law. >> it is an interesting exit

point. this has not been a non violent ride. back to 120 does the guy want to deal with his all over again? probably not. 12 years of being the cfo the only finance chief as a publicly traded company because it is too much of a headache to deal with the regulations that are coming down the pike. >> i would have a huge headache. >> i don't know this seems like smooth sailing compared to the other times not too far back. if i had to guess, it would be that he is thinking i'm never going to get the top job. so he may be open to other options? >> i don't know. >> yes, in terms of financi? i'm curious as to where you stand? there hasn't been a financial

that hasn't benefited from this rally. going into earning season if you get closer to the event, then i get interested. stocks at 9.50 in march goes to $6.50 to $950. what do i do next? if you have edge on that great. i have no edge on that. >> i know you have been in and out of bank of america. given this run how do you then position yourself? i stay the course. i think what has happened up here was in some part due to the strength in the housing business. they have tremendous exposure there and i want to hang on and it is still looking at steep discounts. but goldman approaching it now.

i'm staying on course with both. ask them if 6.5 to 9.5 is a big move. they might say not so much. >> that explains a lot of the move. i'm not sure if anything changes here. the status quo is positive. valuation wise, wells fargo is by no means expensive and cheap. so housing numbers tomorrow i think they continue to tell the story of a financials history that is double. breaking news in the after-hour session, ceo of goldman sachs session, mary thompson is on

th conference call. the question here is could financials be the best way to play the round of easing? >> rebecca always good to see you. >> hi. >> what is your thought? >> we are holding on positions in financials as much as anything as part of our housing play. i think that the housing cycle has turned for good. in part because of credit and income with people who like to buy and finance. but it has turned. i think you look at home builders and home improvement relate ed firms and financials. also the slow improvement and consumer wealth. i think the point that you made was interesting. housing is smaller, you are not

looking for this turn in housing, you are not looking for it to turn the economy has it has in the past? >> absolutely. housing today represents 2.6% of gdp. it got as high as 6.3% of gdp. it doesn't move the needle on our economy and that doesn't mean you can't find investment opportunities. we added to last month was mortgage backed securities and that gets back to the fed in part. if we think an earlier guest today called a qe infinity. that search for yield has a longer lease on life. all of those investments high-yield corporate debt, they are not new or sexy but they can

have structural flow support longer than expected. >> we are going to talk about commodities and we know the effects of qe3. we were saying that the housing sector is a smaller player. the financials, we talk about mall multiyear highs. can you tell us where you guys might have in a world where things were healthier? >> we are being selective on the financials that we own right now. we are looking for names that we think will benefit some of the names that you brought up in the show are things that we own. we might be adding but we are going to be ju dishs about it. you look at the environment and what the financials are facing

and it is going to be a slog for them. we are going to have some exposure but it is going to be less in the past. some of these housing related sectors are interesting. certainly we have been among everyone else out there. the innovation can help that sector. health care has made a difference. health care we have some but it isn't the big one. i find it fascinating, housing is on the cover of baron's and wall street journal. how do you get rid of the bear case that took you from $950 a share to $650 a share. >> anytime you see a lot of newspaper or magazine covers in

a week? you have to think are we at a temporary top? should we be looking to buy a dip? some of the print journalism can be contrary interests. tv is perfect. but, certainly, in terms of housing, even if bernanke does everything he can to bring down mortgage rates, the issue is credit quality. the average credit score for americans has gone up a whopping two points. that is not going to move the needle and the banks have eased lending standards but barely. until the banks are willing to lend. housing is going to improve there is a good trend to play there but it is not easy money. >> we will see you later in the

show. see you later. there is a lot of bullishness in the home builders sector today. toll brothers is trading as 66. keith, can you get onboard this trade? goldman sachs pounding the table on these things that have made a huge run are. >> if you miss that train too bad. up here you are taking on boat loads of risks. and if you look at the risks from a performance perspective alone. bob toll was alone in selling this stock in this case. you have to readjust your set here. >> i don't know, mike ho, what

do you think? prices are up. all arrows are pointing up up up for the home builders. >> not all of them. the options market took a shift to the downside today. if you are looking at toll brothers, that stock is up 120%. kb holmes. and also lenar, we are seeing october put buying in all three of those stocks. many people think it is too far too fast. >> coming up next. joining us for a game of buy low sell high after this break. our trade of the day lies behind this curtain. we will reveal it straight ahead. stay tuned.

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that was richard fisher talking about whether kiwi is saying whether gold could hit $2400 an ounce in just two years. where do you stand? is mr. fisher correct? >> it is not just qe that is driving things. it is the confusion of the market. of course qe is driving gold prices higher. i'm not one to put gold prices

on something. if it gets to $2395 you look like you didn't make it. the trend is from the lower left to the upper right. clearly it is moving higher. it is going to drive prices upward. don't fade it. bank of america have taken a view that gold by 2014 is going to be at $2400. that is not a huge stretch. you know you have some supply disruption elements too. if you look at what is going on in south africa. pgm's platinum and paladium have done better than gold and silver. i don't think anything changes here, i think the metals get that on the pgm. if you look at fisher, this is

like looking at the mini series "lie to me". this is called the correlation risk xgt the dollar is going down because of qe. it is 0.96. like you can't sit there with a straight face. that is what is going on. if you are going to trade gold, oil or anything else, you have to know what happened today. for example, there was no spr rumor. there was no fat finger. that is what is driving the commodity markets. >> can we talk about this weird par tu pattern of training? you pull up the chart on say esv. you see the explosion to the upside and then it falls lower. the theory is that they bought

into the cloves and then had to dump the thing. >> you have had two incidences in two days. you have had the oil market fall on rumors and when you have two events such as this, what is someone's propensity to step up and trade? my propensity is to say i'm going to stand back and wait. >> is that what you are doing today? >> i'm going to stand aside. >> it is too frightening for me. >> diamond offshore is another example. it trades $150 million a day. this isn't something you can push around. this to me, i don't think it is that the energy market is unsafe

to play. i think these are efficient stocks to trade, but if there is a guy in the market and there is nothing regulating that, they can push it around. 203,000 leaning long to the oil side. that is the highest we've seen since february. anything that is tagged to oil now you know. >> for fun out there, if you are on cnbc.com pull up the chart on nov. that showed the trading pattern with do and ese. i want to notice bullish activity when it comes to the gold minor activity. today in im gold we sue the buying of the 30 calls. these have traded 100,000 contracts. this is a bit that the stock

could double by january of 2014. we are seeing numont. royal gold, pan american silver and those upside calls very far out of the machine. what is your take as it is more and more difficult to mine the gold? >> it has been that way. the problem has been for five years the gold etf took the air out of the gold mining stocks. the miners were under press year. about two months ago that relationship stopped. mining shares began to out perform gold. that is usually the hallmark in the market. the stocks have started to outpork themselves. it has been happening for the past several months. as you know here markets are

hovering around four-year highs. let's bring in mark chakin. you have three stocks. let's walk through each of them. what have your indicators found? >> it is bads on 20 pafactors a you know. earnings are due out here in the next day or two. wondering why the stock dropped 5% on friday with the analyst action late in the week last week. >> what are the factors take a look at to come up with your stock picks. it is a combination of fundamental vol you metrics like price to sales, price to book and cash flow analysis. >> what do you do with that information? you continue to avoid the stock

or is there a short that comes out of the reading? >> in this case if they have reported eight straight quarters of better than expected earnings, i would sell the stock. there is little room for disappointment. and there is plenty of downside 10-15%. let's assume they are going to report better than expected. you have a company growing at 6%. you are paying 15 or 16 times earnings. >> let's move onto bed, bath and beyond. what do you see here? >> another stock that is going to report tomorrow. the rating is bullish. the biggest problem is their last quarter in june. major disappointment on stocks. almost overnight. hasn't filled that gap yet.

that makes me nervous. interesting point here is even when they report better, the stock is down a week later. at times when we have seen extraordinary volatility that have taken fundamentals out of the equation, how do your models pick that up? it's almost as if you have to wax on and wax off. >> tim, this is really not the way we are looking at it. i think what we are telling investors is, if the power gauge is bearish. minimize the risk of a negative earnings surprise. if you look at the retailers like gap, tj max and target.

it has been bullish for 6 to 12 months. there is a momentum trend aspect to it. but if the mess tritrics are po, it gives you a more solid footing. the bottom line, auto zone is berrish. lulu lemon, and more straight ahead. actually, breaking news. mary? >> the conference call concluded it was about 20 minutes. the company's ceo, david vinier saying that schwartz brings

strong experience and risk management. schwartz saying that he is excited about the opportunity and mr. vinier set the standards for cfo's. at this point the company's strong position he felt along with the fact that they have a good team it was time to make this kind of transition. it wasn't the kind of decision when asked when this was made. it never happens until the day it happens. mr. schwartz defending his own background questioning his own exexperience he says he does have plenty of that when it comes to handling the securities division when he was co head. saying that he was going to be relying heavily on the team to take over the job. he will assume the roles that he

had at the firm. he oversaw technology and mr. schwartz has experience heading the committee looking at the new regulation. guys back to you. >> a quick question, what is the general take of analysts? what was your impression? >> you know a number of them said we are familiar with you but more from the client side. there were concerns about how he might handle the accounting duties. >> mr. vinier saying i wasn't trained as an accountment but we have a world-class team here. >> bun retailer gets no love and a name is left out in the cold. and later, bun of the most expected analysts is here to

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costs are rising, what do you get? a lower stock price and three times average trading price. i think they fell on the fact that prices themselves were coming off. i think the last of the great traders hasn't been bought out. when you are playing the recovery trade, companies like

metro, they go up 30 or 40%. it fails at the 200 like a lot of recoursource plays are. >> drop here for coach down 2% karen? >> i think it was so specific to coach but a number of the luxury names getting hit today. >> higher than 3%. there has been a lot more chatter today. glenview has increased their position in the stock. i'm not inclined to chase rumors. and chelsea handler, will earn seven figures on this book deal.

drop for alpha natural. >> we talked about it thursday. what are you going to do? they are going to have a tough time when the dollar goes up. >> drop here for mosaic? >> same thing. grain prices coming off. too many people got excited and you have to be more careful. up 4% tim? >> also south african talk and a deal with the miners reverb rates through other names. i think gold fields could go higher. >> drop here for decker. big drop ugg get it? >> weak -- guy wears uggs. >> not enough though. apparently. weak orders for deckers in their ugg division. the stock is down. >> pop here for kraft up 1%.

>> tomorrow is the record date for the spin off of their snacks business. it has been getting a discount because of the snack trade. this is going to be good for the stock. >> pop here for the wal-mart song. >> didn't know they had a song. 90s pop singer took to the stage and performed a song written about the chain. it includes lyrics about chicken nuggets and yogurt. >> jewel. yes. all right. >> dennis has no idea. >> all right. she is the guru of technical analysis and has the scoop of stocks and oil. find out next when we come back.

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during a time when investors

are on the hunt for the yield, 2.9% shares down after hours i did get a note out saying that tech dividends have doubled over the last five years to $32 billion. >> thank you for that. the fed fueled the liftoff for the markets. i did check on the charts. let's start off with the s&p 500. >> great, do we have a picture? >> yes, here we are. this was interesting. you are having another run with the break out with the s&p and the dow moving through the august peaks. you have an extension of an already aging bull market and it allows the possibility that you are going to go back to the 2007 and 2000 levels.

it already shows you that you are going to go to the decade that they talk about during these longer term bear markets. but at the moment with the lift off that we saw, the indicators have improved such that, the new highs have made a slight reaction high. momentum is slowing more volume and the moving averages are rising. you probably have the probablity for the 2007 peaks. >> when i look at this chart three bubbles look apparent. three big bubbles what is different this time? in what respect? >> from however you would look at the technical under pinnings of this mountain that is that chart? >> up until last week we had

occurrence that is would have suggests the possibility of weakness coming in under the surface. we started to see that divergence coming into place there. we identified those tops at the moment. we have farther to go. we accept the rally and think the fed has fueled a hot air balloon if you will and it could go par ther in what we are getting this week is a little pause prior to moving up. if we start to see further deterioration we are taking the rally defensively. let's move onto oil. it has been in a wide trading range. let me put my glasses on for the levels. between 80 and 110. this being 80 and that being 110

level over the last two years. at the moment it has had a 23% rise. right now, you are stuck between 95 and 100. so it is unclear which collection is coming next. then perhaps the next move will be down 100. i would rather wait and see which direction it resolves. sort of related to this chart but also to the s&p chart. i'm wondering if you are concerned at all that the transports have under performed the s&p? >> yes. it gives you a dow theory cell signal. that started to roll down today a little bit more than the major indexes. and so there is that still in place. everything is not 100% here.

>> and gold. let's get to that chart. >> you had a nice break out through 1641 and you have had about a 10 or 11% rally. close to 1800. we think a pause is rwarranted t this point. but break out through 1800 would reinstate our target at 1800. >> thank you for coming by. dennis, what you did you make for the oil and gold out look? >> i agree with her on gold. i'm not a gold bug. i never have been a gold bug. but it is being sponsored. i'm not as bullish on the oil market. yesterday, i'm sorry when you break something $5. even if it was a fat-finger

asou assau assault, it sounhouldn't break t much. it tells you that everything is going back to their former highs. one of the things that i expect is because they have lagged so badly and we are talking about this as a bull run. if you want to place an allocation where you place the trends here, this is where there is still significant catch up to go. ♪ together for your future. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money". we want to thank you for staying with us. we had some technical difficulties. we have a lot of ground to cover here. let's talk about the move here. what do you do in tomorrow's session when you go in? >> i'm going to continue to be a buyer on the gold market. if we get gold, i'm going to continue to be a buyer. i'm going to be a buyer of gold. i think you need to look at the weakness that has developed in the grain market. everyone has been excited because of the brought. that is important.

>> outside of africa, they got destroyed today. it was down over 9% today. this again, it was taken down because people believed that a strike that disrupted platinum prices, pgm's go higher, you want to on this weakness. they have significant cost structure in south africa because of the union issues that have caused these disruptions. you are a believer that you would be a long-term bull on commodities across the board. i think if you go back to the guy in the last six months, you moves. at the same time, the europeans are going to set up to develop

their currency. if you believe that we are in the third green span bubble. the exercise from here is simple. low or highs. that could be the bear case on gold. if it can't make the high, that is the bear case. it is the bull case for the dollar. it is the most asymmetric trade in the market today. >> it has been 54 minutes and in this entire time we have not mentioned apple. 5423 and if you count the minutes we were in commercial break. >> then it was an hour and 54 minutes. karen, does this get you scared? >> it does. think about the stock trading as low as $570.

not very long ago at all. one of the things that you have to do is position grows, it gets to be too big. there are thing to do in the options we were looking today at selling upside calls and looking the proceeds of that. put spreads to take a little bit of money off the table. it is getting too big. it is more of a portfolio management discipline. >> i bought apple at $25. >> i sold all of it at $35 because i thought it was getting over priced. it is at $700. it can go where ever it wants to go. be careful. it can go higher still. it will stop when it stops. >> the fact is, there are those that say no steve jobes, no innovation.

yes, samsung lost some lawsuits, but the pricepoints for people to buy $700 phones is going to be challenging. how do you expect these people to afford a $200 phone? >> do you think that about the 4s at well? >> each step makes me wonder. >> you don't have to. it is almost impossible to discriminate between the hardware and the ht phones. the price points are different. people love apple. and they will continue to love it. but this does not continue to go on forever. >> walter downgraded the stock in april. you missed a couple of hundred bucks, have those materialized

in anyway? has the thesis changed? >> i think the downgrade was $630 or $640. the myth that we talked about in the fiscal q3 earnings that we talked about. the iphone 4 and 4s. those were upgrade policies that guys like at&t were aillowing yu to buy a $200 phone. and the difference between the iphone 4 and 4s is different now. the iphone 5 is that those customers are not eligible for the upgrade. if they want that phone, they are going to have to pay the

$700. it has compressed their margins and earnings too much. at&t is going to speak tomorrow at a conference. they talked about selling 25 million phones. if they don't, that is an indication that what they got was what they expected and that their upgrade policies are in fact working. >> the i've ipad, it is a great product and i think it is going to open up broadband access. the ipoenhone a couple of years ago, it is 60% more profits. the ipad is important, when you look at the mini.

if i can access this great product at a lower price point, do i buy the higher margin or priced regular ipad or does the mini access some of the profitability that the ipad might have gotten. >> keith, let's do the trade of the day. >> it is nothing like apple. it is not sexy at all, it is trucks. it is peterbuilt trucks. you are going to look for opportunities that can capitalize on that environment. it is on margin expansion when you are selling parts. it is a cheap stock. >> time for the final trade. >> dennis? >> i think you want to own gold. >> karen?