twitter and google plus. fast money traders will break down what is behind the oil plunge. have a great night. i will see you tomorrow. stocks stalling but bulls waiting to charge. >> fixed income markets starting to sell off. we think that is going to see money floating back into equities. >> some markets aren't stalling at all. >> strong data this morning. what is holding us back? >> we need a president and an administration that will unleash this economy. we are still the greatest game in town. we are the greatest country in the world. we have more opportunity than anybody else but we can't keep shackling it. >> karen has the answers and joe has the trades. fresh from the trading floor this is "fast money." live from the nasdaq markets

i'm melissa lee. crude dropping below $92 a barrel today and down 7% this week. what should we be reading if anything into this drop in crude. this is six week lows here. >> inventories are coming out at high levels. when you look at the energy trade and try to determine what is the right trade for me sitting at home the trend is your friend. i added to my valero position. it is about refiners able to benefit from the bursting of inventories. having traded crude for over 20 years i understand that crude oil gets in a pattern where it disappoints the bulls and the bears. wherever you think the spot price of crude oil may be going it gets in a mood or mindset where it will disappoint you. you have a releaset that will limit the upside. on the down side you have the potential of what is going on with iran and israel. >> i thought this was about ben

bernanke and qe eternity. from here to q eternity in this case but inflating all commodities across the board. what happened? >> well, first of all, crude oil is a benchmark that everybody looks at in terms of inflation and commodity. if you think there is no coincidence with crude collapsing since the fed announcement i say look again. with that said other commodities have been through the roof. the crb has got whacked the last couple of days. look at the rest of the commodity complex and you will see an inflation problem on the horizon. valero we are at levels we haven't seen in three yearsish. if it holds 30 or 30.5 that is what you are trading. the problem is just one more comment. if you think crude going down is

going to help you at the pump you are mistaken. >> to me the interesting thing is we are talking about crude since qe 3. to me i look at crude and it looks like a proxy for global growth or lack thereof. when you see this what do we see? what is the earnings preannouncement this week from fed ex and others. global growth is very weak. china is still very weak so crude will stay very -- to me it will stay challenged. i look at it more as a proxy rather than looking to the inflation. i don't know. i mean, that may be. why the $7 in the last 36 hours. that has been unraveling. >> if you look at the s&p versus crude for the better part of 2011 and 2012 when crude had the selloff the s&p started going with it. why did we start selling off? because of fears overseas and

global growth slowing. to me it is simple here. if that chart that you are looking at if it continues to go the s&p may have downs. >> let's look at the drops in crude. on tuesday it was a fundamental taking off of a bullish long position and today there was the article saying saudi arabia would release more crude to main customers including united states. >> understanding you have a lot of bearish news headlines coming forth but what drives the tape is the positioning of the investment community. where is the investment community? we have established long positions in oil as reported from the cfdc as the highest level in multiple months. i point out crude is just in the mindset where if everyone is all in long the slightest bit of bearish news will take it the other way. many are going to say that crude is going to deteriorate into the

mid to lower 80s. i take the other side of that. >> let's bring in the founding partner of again capital. he joins us with his take on crude's plunge. you are in the camp that believes we have seen the peaks at least for now. >> you have covered it well. i would say that in highlight just a few minutes ago norfolk southern came out with earnings very disappointing. they highlighted the shipments they are doing as flagging. that goes to the thesis that is going on here that all the qe in the world can benefit gold and silver as monetary pure plays but crude oil has to hue to the fundamentals that have been deteriorating left to right. it has a tough road to hoe here. it has been dragged down and it is losing favor fast. >> i want to ask you about a

trade that was going around the trading floor. there was evidence there was $60 million liquidated today and that went into the dbo. i'm not sure if you saw evidence of it in the market place but do you think it is foolish to switch out of ag and get into oil. >> i wouldn't consider crude oil a buy at this point right now and i would think the agricultural space still troubled from all the drought situations still feeding through the price supports there. i think it was a bad trade. i think you saw more bailing on those than anything else which is what enabled this lower than what we saw today. crude is losing favor. we came into this week with huge speculative link. those go running out. maybe they could be reloading. we think it is more for a further press lower. >> let's talk about lower crude prices juxtaposed with continued

higher gas prices and what does it mean for refiners? >> i think if you are going to try to play this space that is the one. the refining industry as you know has been rationalizing sort of the way the airline industry has, shutting down unionts in europe. all of these things are feeding into keeping that refined product market tight as a drum and that is what you are going to continue to see. i would point out for consumers gasoline prices probably down about 12 to 14 cents since their high earlier in the week. >> good to see you. >> appleal hitting a fresh record. it is hard to find. >> here is what he had to say today. >> the obsession with apple is

truly remarkable social phenomenon. when you watch cnbc everybody wants to talk about apple going up today and down today. fixation and obsession with apple. to me that means that the stock is overbelieved and overbought. i have been sort of not a believer in owning apple stock. >> what is behind wall street's love affair with it. mark, do you think that is a bad thing that so many people love apple. >> the major point is you will never find from wall street the head's up in advance. i point out that right before enron went bankrupt you found just as lop sided a consensus for it as you find for apple today. so it's basically a situation where despite what the guests said he is definitely a

minority. most of the analysts on wall street have they found a stock that they don't love. 1,500 stocks in the s&p all but 1.9% of them are hold or higher which is an amazic statistic. >> one of the things said is the social phenomenon of it. to me i find it interesting that there is this attachment between the analysts that cover it and the people that own it. if you say anything negative about that stock on this show it lights up like a christmas tree. to me that is not healthy. ultimately it will end at some point. is it fair to say that those sorts of social phenomenons are not healthy in a market environment? >> i would agree. why aren't more people saying what you said which i think is exactly right and going back to a concept introduced called a career risk. analysts right now says you

ought to be holding apple in your portfolio even if he is wrong he is not going to lose his job over it. even if you say stay out of apple and the stock keeps going up you can lose your job over something like that. there are a lot of career risks that lead analysts into hurt-like behavior and it exacerbates the social phenomenon you are talking about. >> it is so loved and nobody wants to say anything bad about it. i still go back to the fundamentals and that says a different story than something like amazon. i love it as a product but the valuation is such that i can't get there and you need to grow for 20 years or 20% to come into this valuation. not the case in apple. does that figure in your analysis? >> i'm making a broader point.

i start with a stipulation that everyone can agree with. at some point apple's run will come to an end. if that is stipulated no one can disagree with that. then the question is who would you turn to to find advanced warning or a head's up that it is approaching a top. it turns out my point is that you will never find it from wall street because they tend to say buy until the very end. >> can't argue with that. >> absolutely. >> i actually can. >> thanks for your time. >> i disagree completely with the notion that wall street will not quickly chime in when the reversal is in place. we talked about it many times, sometimes being too disciplined and focused on risk and covering up and seeking out protection in the options market. there is plenty of well defined point of references in the technicals that can tell you

where the story will turn as well as the fundamentals. you have a poor report for earnings for apple and there is not that response that there normally is to support it. i don't understand why we're so focused on an impending collapse in apple. that appears to be the least of the concerns. >> i don't think we are obsessed with an impending collapse but maybe a slowing in the growth. you are almost a pria if your price target isn't the 700s. you don't think it will go to 900 or higher. >> there is one variable that we are not talking about in this conversation. if you have an investment manager or a growth manager focused on technology take the money out of apple. what is apple's competition? until you define what the next apple investment in the technology base is then you have to stick with what is working.

>> they have had fabulous growth. if you look at estimates going forth it is supposed to go at about 20% a year. that to me karen says that it is a cheap stock. it is a cheap stock. cash trading at 11 times earning. if it is growing at 15% a year at some point people aren't going to pay. it trades at a discount. i don't know. at some point it will top out. to me that is how i think about it. i guess the only other thing i would say is this stock has so much bad performance in the market place for the last couple of years. to me at some point you will have a situation where everyone will head to the doors at the same time and you have a nasty selloff. at some point it is coming. we know how it ends. >> are you seeing let up in the optimism surrounding apple shares? >> not really. it still remains a bullish

tenor. it is the weekly options that dominate. it is in my view a technology company and at some point technology companies it doesn't matter you can take a pick they turn and consumers turn against them at some point. if bernanke and the guest says there are three sectors you should be piling into right now. not apple. revealing what those three sectors are next.

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the new highs reach a high.

volume reaction is showing more volume. the averages are rising. i think you probably have the possibility here for an assault on the 2007. >> saying it points to new highs for stocks. has bernanke buried the bears? we are going to bring in the u.s. technical and market analys analysis. it is always good to see you. what are you seeing at this point? >> i brought you the 500 looking at lows of march of '09. here we have the lows and we have connected the dots and we have connected the dots on the top. if we are right and we channel up and test this top part of the channel you can get up into the low 1,600s for the s&p 500. >> part of this move is a rotation that you expect to

happen in the market. >> there are many rotations that we are seeing. one that we actually are seeing is financials being in a stealthable market. and so what we have here is we are showing that the financials have broken out. they are pulling down but we think it is testing the breakout. you are going to continue to see the financials go up. and the pocket that we like are the regional banks. this is a play on what the fed is doing with the market. buying the mortgages you want to buy the banks that have leverage. the other part of the rotation is in the commodity market. i know crude is going down. we are getting rotation out of the defensives. utilities, health care staples and shifting it. what we are selling are the utilities. >> that was one of the better performing sectors. the sector rotation is out of

the defenses. the tail end is utilities. on the next chart we will show you materials. if you have missed the rally it is the material sector. we think commodities have finished their correction. we think there is a bias upside. if we are correct on that we think the sector that is lagged that the market will chase is the materials sector. >> going back to the first s&p chart is there any volume that is associated with that that you would need to see or is this completely irrelevant? >> when we look at volume we have models. both of them are bullish. so we don't see any problem with volume. where some of the divergences are is with market breath the big is with the dow jones theory. that is a concern but this can persist for several months.

we think with the breakout it looks like we will get a breakout. people are short. our fund manager survey is out. we think the trade will be to the upside. >> identifying the down side where it is exactly with the s&p we should be concerned if we see a sell off. >> it's a great question. the breakout point for us was 1422. if you came in and violated 1422 that would be problematic for the market for us. >> on the fundamentals today we see nfc lower guidance. bed bath and beyond. a number of companies sort of lowered the bar. the market rallies in their face. tomorrow could be another one of those days where if it doesn't sell off dramatically it just sort of hammers home your point that the pain trade continues to be in the s&p going north. >> that's correct. and we really feel that people are not positioned for this because we see it in the sector

rotation. now they are trying to catch up with the cyclical part. we didn't talk about consumer discretionary attack. and then there is a fair amount of shorts. on top of that in our global fund manager survey there is still a global catch up trade. the indicator we show you is the global breath and that has started to break out. this is not just a u.s. phenomenon, this is a global phenomenon. >> i wanted to ask you about hedge funds and i know you track them and what they are doing. is that what you are finding out there and are they allocating money to the areas that are poised for breakout materials and so on? >> if you look at the long and short we have models that estimate their exposure. when we look at mack cros, three weeks ago they were basically short what we consider high beta areas of the market. they have just started to buy. if you look at the performance

here to date they are nowhere near where we need to be. >> always great to see you. >> she makes the same point we had adam on and made the same point that the market -- and the pain trade. the foundation of the market should be earnings. the foundation of this market is an overly accommodated fed. with that in mind for the foreseeable future we head north. >> let's stick with technical analysis. approaching the golden cross. the last time gold's 50-day moving average moved was 2 1/2 years ago. it went on to spike 103%.

do you put much weight? >> i put more weight on what occurred three or four weeks ago when you had gold go above the moving average. i think everyone should own gold and silver. it is the true buy and old old asset. i think you want to own it 3% to 8%. if there is something i would trade it would be platinum. platinum has seen pressure. that has been reserved because of the fundamentals in south africa. folks are not going to sell it again. you look to the pplt which is the platinum. that is something i think you can trade around. >> one stock raising the roof today and another firing up. we are tracking the big movers. still to come a trade of the day of guerilla proportions. we will lift the curtain to see what it is. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac

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$1.25. the lower expectations due to dollar declines in certain areas and lower revenues from fuel surcharges. take a look at that chart there. a lower coal and merchandise shipment is the key here between intermodal. so in terms of the rails we had a downgrade today. >> you learn that at harvard and not at st. john's. >> ubs cutting. >> this is a pretty monstrous cut by these guys. it should not go well for most of the space. yet every single stock look at fed ex they shrug it off. within three or four days they are right back to levels. we'll see if it happens again. within a week from now it is

probably back to levels we saw earlier today. >> time for pops and drops and movers you might have missed in today's session. we have a pop for mon santo. >> we talked about the stock at half time. this is the best bio tech stock. i think the stock has broken out and trades triple digits. >> half time gave you props on that. >> go and recommend the stock. pop today. good for you. pop for sprint up 7%. >> up 7% today. 130% in the last two months. ceo is doing his job to get the stock higher. he spoke talking about mergers and bigger mergers or smaller mergers who knows and better to compete. >> drop from dell down 1%. >> 52-week low today. absolutely unbelievable.

if you don't believe tablet cannibaluation is a real thesis look at the performance of dell. it is not a name i suggest owning. >> pop for facebook up 6%. >> you don't hear that so often. today is the day. pop for facebook. a little bit of hope on mobile apps but no way that i would jump in. >> drop for charles schwab. >> they got a downgrade from goldman sachs saying the fed action will limit the upside for the name. still might be considered the best in its space. >> and a drop for the big apple. new york city. it seems that to some the big apple has turned rotten. a recent survey ranks new york as the dirtiest city in america. new york was voted the loudest and the rudest town in the country but despite it's labelled as a city that never sleeps more than 50 million

tourists visited last year. >> ronnie wrote "that smell" for gary who drove his car into an oak tree while he was under the influence. released in october of '78. get your albums right now, folks. >> pop for cabella's. >> you make fun of me. cabella's is an all time high. people going out and buying ammo it is a real story. >> a pop for google up 1%. >> it is kind of like what mary an said. it is a stock left for dead as of july. still lagging the major indexes and going for the 740 all time high in 2007. >> a drop for waste management

down 3%. >> jp morgan puts it under weight with a $34 price target. i say garbage to that call. you like that one? >> a tremendous amount of free cash flow. i say you own it on dividend alone. >> pop for pulte. >> home builders popping again and again and again. 16 is not the place to jump in. >> a drop for quest down 47%. >> at one point it was down more than 50%. yesterday we saw more than two to 1. a lot of put buying ahead of news today that aetna is saying that a drug they use for multiple sclerosis is appropriate. it is linked for a lot of growth the stock is seeing. we are seeing almost three times increases in their revenues.

this is pretty bad news for them. >> a pop for fire tornadoes. an australian man captured footage of weather. the video draws a fire tornado which -- >> this is for real. when a twister catches down over a brush fire. the chances of that are what? >> the tornado sounded like a fire jet with flames 100 meters into the air. that is amazing. >> for you folks out there in music land. johnny cash wrote it for june carter. he is saying i dig you. you're hot. and then they get married. >> you need to be on name that tune. >> i belong on a lot of things. free haircuts but no free lunch. we have that trade right after

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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq markets in times square. let's check into the stock. bed bath and beyond with the latest. >> the stock not rebounding after the numbers came out. fiscal second quarter earnings 98 cents. the sales were slightly higher so that was good news but it failed to reboot. the comps came within guidance. gross margins retracted. >> this feels like the previous quarter. >> it feels like june 20th. jeffrey is out with a nice note talking about the product cycle in particular. talking about multipleal coupons here, dragging on margins. i know you and i have plenty of coupons. i don't think bbby is the trade

here. i think you look at pier 1 imports a direct beneficiary of the housing recovery. management is doing an excellent job. they are selling items at a higher end than target. >> wicker, man. >> wicker is where it is at. >> i'm all about wicker. >> and scented candles. >> i love scented candles. >> you want a candle maybe vanilla wafting through the living room. >> and they sell for you, too. jc penney spiking more than 10% as ceo ron johnson says the new shops and boutiques in the stores are actually working only to plunge when he said the second half would be like a first. is this a textbook short squeeze? >> so you have this event during market hours. you have people lined up on both sides. a lot of activists are behind

this thing. you have a massive run of 50%. you are not going to see and johnson told us that today. we are not going to see immediate results here. investors took it up on hope and you had people who came in and slammed it down. this seems pretty fairly evenly matched and the main event is early november. they don't give guidance anymore. the color on comps and the holiday season will drive this stock. we will see if this rally sticks. >> i am short. there was something for the bulls and the bears in that presentation. what it really spiked on was them saying that the shops were up. if the rest of the business is down 20 i don't know if that means 20% improvement. there was never a clarification of that. the thing that really turned the stock out the door was when he said august was decent but last

two weeks was tough. that statement alone was really problematic for the stock. we need a lot more color here. i thought some of the presentation was a little hokey. he is great but i think selling an apple product is different than selling levis. >> we talked to an analyst this morning brian angle and i asked him if he knew what the revenue agreements were, they got a lot of great brands in there but we don't know the terms. he said he did not know and they have not disclosed that. >> johnson did say in response to a question that they will not have onerous terms with the owners. he did say that. a lot of people -- apple got a lot of flack in ituness for the lion's share they were taking. >> let's get options action. >> i think every options trader saw it.

november 27. this is a situation where somebody bought one of the november 27 and then sold two of the 22s against him for 43 cents each. they did this trade 25,000 times, an outlay of about $2 million. this trade makes the most money if jcp is trading down more than 20% by the expiration in november less than 59 days from now. >> more options action every friday at 5:00. check out the new facebook page. the hunt for yield is making the dow investment strategy more popular than ever. the highest yielding are outperforming the broader this year. as everyone seeks yield is the trade running out of steam here? let's bring output of beverly hills wealth management. good to see you. >> good to see you, too. >> let's take a look at the kennel. there are dog metaphors going

about. kennel are the stocks you want to keep. >> what we like to do is we find the highest yielding of the top 30 dow stocks, pick ten of them and hold them for a year and a day. our clients like the idea of simplicity. they like the idea of dividend yield coming off of them. generally by the end of the yield we see the underlying value of the money, too. >> the difference in identifying the dogs of the dow this year versus years in the past is the highest yielding have been among best performing stocks. the inverse relationship between yield and price on shares, how does that play into how you decide which dogs to keep in your portfolio? >> we stay with the philosophy that has built this as a very successful trading philosophy over the years. you are absolutely right. we have seen some of the best performers. ge has been one of them that

have held up very well. we would maintain them in our portfolio going forward. >> you said you hold them for a year and a day. that makes you sound like you have tax motivation. do you foresee changing that if we get an end to the bush tax? >> what we see is that we are dealt whatever we are dealt with with by the congress. as you know the dollar is always in jeopardy when the congress is in session. we have to help our clients walk through what it is for the very best net result that we can achieve for them. >> is there dividend yield that raised flags? most are between 3 1/2 and 4%. >> we will always look at it. we will always see whether the dividend is safe or whether we are looking at any risk involved in the trade. but we do stay fairly close to that discipline.

over time it has worked extremely well. clients like simple and something they can understand. and you don't have to be a rocket scientist in order to get this philosophy across. >> any concern or do you expect the tax rates to go up next year? >> i do expect them to go up next year. and i think that whenever is in the white house next year we have got some fiscal issues that they will be dealing with. i think mr. romney will drop kick forward four years. mr. obama has a wild open field and all the leverage in the world. you always have to keep an eye on that. but we are very, very aware of what our tax structures could be for our clients, yes. >> great to speak with you. hope to see you again soon. >> enjoyed it. thanks a lot. >> john joins us with a preview of what is coming up next. >> coming up i got three stocks

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apple may be getting new highs. it is not the only tech company changing the way we live. john has more on innovation investing from san francisco. >> three companies i want to talk to you about. i am here in san francisco at sales forces dream force conference. what is so innovative about

sales force? the thing that jumps out at me is the way they have been able to use social at a way that drives businesses forward. millions of users oon their chatter platform that they are expanding today where they are using storage to beef up their business. second company i want to talk about is quaalcomm. we talk about quaalcomm a lot. what makes them so innovative? they have a lot of competitors when it comes to chips. they have integrated the base band along with the application processor. some competitors said it is not a good idea. performance wise quaalcomm isn't always on top when you combine the processor with the base band. they are strong and that is why you see them in apple, throughout windows phone devices and so many others. i want to mention amazon doing

extraordinarily well. not so much just their retail push but the way they have been able to use big data on customers to make informed decisions. seemed risky at the time. they pushed into cloud. they managed to make that payoff so far. now not just with devices but with lte their data on usage is good enough that they figured out a likelihood that they continued to make money bundling these things together. that is pretty innovative. back to you. >> we will trade this. amazon quaalcomm. >> amazon is a tough one for the reasons karen said before. it will take years for them to grow. quaalcomm makes the most amount of sense. they are so embedded in the smart phone space.

guys like intel have been doing it longer. crm is the other one where the valuation doesn't make sense. they are small enough and doing a lot of things that make a lot of sense. i thought amazon was shorted against 245. it looked like a long term top that continues to push higher. instead of trying to short against 245 you use that as your pivot to trade against on the long side. at a certain point valuation catches up but it hasn't yet. >> all three of them are dominant in terms of market share. when you talk about software they are clearly the leader. that is a stock i think you continue to own. quaalcomm is a name i have owned. they will be the major player in 4 g. amazon i will say i have proven to be one of the worst amazon

traders there is. sg >> cramer cop of the hour on mad money. next on fast one of our traders seeing the glass half full in our trade of the day. find out what is behind this curtain after the break.

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time to reveal our trade of the day. joe take it away. >> it is corning a name talked about multiple times. i have to credit goldman sachs for putting out an excellent report talking about the dependence on lcd and how that has been diminished. when you look inside it presents itself eps will go positive in the fourth quarter for the first time in years. fundamentals are coming together and technicals are coming together. it is flirting with coming above the moving average. they have a tremendous amount of cash. you have to think that 2.4% dividend yield will move higher. i think it is the perfect time

to do so in a market place that may want to be more defensive. >> what is the growth product now? it was seen that led tvs were it for corning. it would use two panes of glass. now what is it? >> guerilla glass. it is getting a lot of growth. this is a name that i have lost a fair amount of money in as we get cheaper and cheaper. we are half as long now which probably means it is the time to buy it. >> and the margins on the glass are excellent. >> next we have your first move for tomorrow. stay tuned.

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i wouldn't trade him for the world. who matters most to you says the most about you. massmutual is owned by our policyholders so they matter most to us. if you're caring for a child with special needs, our innovative special care program offers strategies that can help. time for the final trade. >> short mvb. the fed's promise as pushed them too high. >> november puts for jc penney. >> i am sticking with macy's here. >> got to go with corning. let me correct something i said before. corning has h