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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  October 19, 2012 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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around. the car battery company where workers spend the day playing cards and watching movies all courtesy of your taxpayer dollars. and the incredible story of a ceo who apparently takes being a diva to entirely new heights. major averages are having their worst day in nearly four months and it is the 25th anniversary of the stock market crash of '87. what we called black monday when the dow plummeting over 22%. this is your really interesting factoid of the day. black monday was the dow's second-ever triple digit decline. will today be the triple digit drop number 629. as for mcdonald's, it is the biggest weight on the dow. the only dow stock that is higher -- bank of america. as for ge which is 29% of our parent company is the biggest drag on the s&p. its revenues missed. the s&p down today but still higher for the week. and the nasdaq is the
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underperfounde underperformer. we'll talk about the recent trouble in tech land in just a second. bob pisani is down at the nyse. bob, i don't even know where to start today. just fill us in on the sense you get down there on the floor with the drops we're seeing. >> we're at the lows for the day. let's not quibble about a few points. the question is, is this the start of something else or a modest little pullback. so far everyone of these little pullbacks we've seen -- there's been a bunch in the last few months -- have been very shallow. talking 2% or 3%. this one so far has essentially the same characteristics. remember, we've just off of four-year highs. less than 2% off for the four-year highs. in terms of what's causing it, can't blame europe today. this is just an earnings situation. tech groups, materials, consumer discretionary, all down. 5-1 declining to advancing stocks. i mentioned earnings. last week banks were coming in better than expected. that was helping everybody. what was going on there. here's what's going on today.
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techs in the last few days, weaker -- not just slow pc sales, but business software, microsoft talks about that. industrials and materials have seen weaker global demand and there's cautionary comments around that. in terms of the earnings for q3, flat for earnings but revenues only up 1.3%. hard to grow the earnings with only 1.3% revenue growth. q4 is going to look a little bit better. if that hold up or not remains to be seen. so far in the last few days there haven't been a lot of revisions to those q4 numbers. i'm going to bring in art hogan, managing director at lazzaro capital markets. is today really just a today or the start of something bigger? >> i think i do look at this in a broader perspective and take a step back. bob just brought up a good point we've up 15% from the lows we hit in the month of june.
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as you take over from there, say how much have we given back? this is a normal cycle of the market. you're up 15%. you give back two, two and a quarter percentage points. it's not europe, we've moved that to the back burner for the time being. it is not the china demand story. we're beyond that at least this week. what it is, the realization that after a point of time you can grow earnings but then you reach a point of diminishing returns and you have to start -- you can't just increase productivity. i don't think this is the start of something larger. i think this is the point at which we're at. it is where should stocks be priced with what they're earning right now. >> maybe even a crossroads, would you buy this or wait to find out more answers? >> remember, this week we've heard from 80 s&p 500 companies. we're to hear from 35 next week. you'll have a better report card after next week. i think you have time to take a
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broader perspective and say what's the real issue with technology. that's been the biggest drag on the market offense the last three days. is there a significant shift? flexion point in demand right now? or are we just going through the proper cycle of getting rid of some excess here. i think you have a better chance of sitting through next book's earnings reporting season. see where we stand, we'll have a better rating. >> art, i know technology's gotten all the attention. the cell phone issue a big one not going away. i've been more concerned about some of the names like owens-corning and parker hanafin which are under the radar industrial conglomerates that are all reporting slowdowns. >> on the industrial side, one thing to think about is what's your percentage of exposure to domestic versus international. we heard from cat, john deere, everything was about developing. that's where the slowdown's coming from. if we are in a global economic slowdown, which we are, that's
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where we're going to be in trouble. entirely over the last year or so you've been looking for companies that have been more domestically focused than internationally focused. that's going to continue to be the case probably for the next couple quarters as well. >> art, is there any one name that will stick out to you as being the most vital bellwether to watch next week? >> that's a tough call because when you look at it, you've got 17 dow components, 135 s&p 500 companies. hard to put your finger on one and say this is the one that makes the biggest difference. let's hope they report before the market opens or after the market closes because we don't need any more surprises like that. a number of years ago desktop computing became sort of, well, subjective. right? to the web? well, today it seems that mobile, cell phone communications, may be doing the same thing to the web. so, is the cell phone the common enemy of facebook, google and others? it certainly appears that way. let's dive in a little more.
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julia boorstin is joining us. julia, this has been the bug-a-boo really now of facebook -- yes, bug-a-boo, mandy. of facebook and now possibly even google. is it not? >> absolutely. so we know that mobile is sloweding and we know that google dominates mobile search with 95% of mobile search market share. so the question is why is mobile a threat to google's bottom line? comes down to the fact that the mobile search is less valuable than search on the desktop. rye? because people are less likely to make a big purchase like an airline ticket or hotel room on a mobile device than they are on their computers. the rise of that lower value mobile search drew google's cost per click down 15% this quarter from a year ago. but since google's playing a volume game, emarketer projects it will continue to dominate mobile ads growing 78% -- its mobile ad revenue some 70%
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between this year and next year. mobile also threatens facebook but for a different reason. facebook's mobile app does not have as much real estate to show ads. emarketer says 60% of facebook's ad revenue now comes in ad format that can only exist on the desktop and doesn't really fit in that mobile format. the fact that facebook shows fewer mobile ads, makes each one more engaging to advertisers as well as facebook which is why emarketer projects facebook's mobile ad revenue will grow more than five times to nearly $400 million next year. the threat for facebook an google is whether mobile ads can grow fast enough to compensate for desktop declines. >> julia, thank you. the question is, can anybody get mobile right? can anybody really make money off of mobile? let us bring in a products strategist and contributor to tech crunch. do they have the answers, rocky? >> i think facebook and google will have the answers. we're seeing a fundamental shift
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from the web to mobile and from pcs to mobile devices. i facetime and skype with my nieces who are 4 and 9, and they may never use a pc or the web in the way we've been using the web. but google and facebook, they are setting themselves up right to take advantage of that when the advertisers are ready. so far the advertisers have been behind the curve before the users are. >> google and facebook and other companies, they really can't see mobile as a threat. they have to embrace it. they also probably have to develop investments in it. to what extent are they going to have to throw money at the problem? >> i don't think they're going to have to spend a whole lot of money to capture the mobile opportunity. it is mostly a waiting for the advertisers to catch up to where the users are. it's not a significant investment as we've seen with some of the other big technology plays. a few years ago people would have looked at what google's doing driving mapping trucks around the country and around the world and saying, why do you
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want to be in that business, why are you driving vehicles around the country? and we look at the map on iphone and you see that google's had a huge opportunity because they made that investment. >> rocky, will google's business model, as it pertains to search on the desktop, be relevant in five years? five months? >> i think a lot of it will be relevant. a lot of it won't be relevant. initially they're trying to get the advertisers on-board with mobile using the same products. over time they're going to have to adapt the product to the medium. you can't always take what works on one platform and make it work on another platform. there's companies like open table who $1 reservation. everybody who walks in the door, you pay me $1. whether they book through the website, whether they book through the mobile site, whether there is a guy with a sandwich board makes your reservations, doesn't matter. you still pay the $1.
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when open table opens, they still have the $1. >> rocky, we'll flip things hearsay ably in the tech sector and talk about whether or not the pc is dead. joining us from new york, senior editor at techno buffalo. to what extent have the traditional pc manufacturers kind of been throw out and the new ones on the ascend dents of things like apple and android? >> the old ones are sort of getting thrown out. they'll have to rely on windows 8 and microsoft to show that they can compete directly with android, directly with apple and the ipad. here's an example. here's an android tab plet. i brought it with me. you can pop it off. have you a tablet and a keyboard. that's an android tab pllet. in the past we'd consider it a pc because it had a keyboard. you can do work on it. but dell and microsoft's sales are down in pcs.
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>> what do they need to do? is it a matter of catching up or -- >> totally. it is a matter of catching up but it might be too late. it is a little too high, $499 for the low-end model. you could buy an entry level laptop for that price. they need to come lower and show everybody that they're ready to compete with these $99 products. google's is rumored to dropped down to $99 next week maybe. that's a crazy market whereas in the past you might buy a new laptop for grandma so that you can skype with her. now you don't need to spend hundreds of dollars. you go out, get $100 tablet. grandma's on the other end and that's where the buying is slowing down especially when it comes to getting new notebooks. >> rocky, maybe i'm completely overreacting here, but what i'm hearing from you guys, we have talked about it in the past, is that when we look at the trends to mobile, the very business models of some gigantic companies -- microsoft, google, facebook, could be at risk. i'm not saying these companies are at risk of going out of business, but we're talking
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about what's google's revenue stream from ad word. right? we're talking about massive hits to some massive companies. this is a game changer. >> i don't think they're at risk because they're doing the right thing at the right time. if you look at aol and social, aol completely missed its cue on social. i was working aol at the time. we had a strategy for social. a number of us said this is what we should do in social. the feedback from senior management was that's not going to generate revenue this quarter so we're not going to invest in it. if google and facebook were doing that, i'd be really worried. but they're seeing this shift towards mobile and they're saying, we need to be in mobile. that's why i'm not concerned about those companies right now. >> all right, rocky. todd, gentlemen, thank you both very much. got to get back to these markets. see you soon. before i get more on your markets, speaking of panic -- hockey. another season or another week, i should say, canceled for the season. they are not even close to a deal. let's get a "market flash"
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with courtney reagan. bring us up to date on what's happening with the markets today. may i just say, you are looking very farrah fawcett as well. >> thank you, mandy. travel stocks. take a look at some of these online travel stocks. priceline, expedia, all down around 4% or so. pri priceline fell 3% yesterday. travel in europe is weak, potentially an issue. we are lower across the board for this group, whatever the reason. >> lower across the board for that group and lower on a very low day as well. thanks a lot, courtney. being paid to play cards and watch movies. it is happening in michigan and it is happening with your tax dollars. and last week we told you how the unemployed and underemployed single girls of america are crushing the economic world. coming up next, how the single ladies could be the biggest
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dow stocks down. existing hope sales fell 1.7% in september but the average home price rose more than 11% from a year ago. that's the biggest annual gain since november 2005. we're looking at home builders today. for example, let's bring out the board, showing what's going on there. raymond james downgrading some home builders while upgrading apartment reits. our next guest makes the case on why single women may be in fact a boon for rates. the vice president of real estate research at raymond james, you're breaking it down into genders here. give us the story. >> i think it is really important what's going on here. but as far as builders go, our message number one is the housing recovery is intact right now. we're seeing very positive signs, inventories very lean, mortgage rates very low. we're seeing prices rising in a number of markets. but just keep in mind where we're at in the housing market and where we're at on home
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building stocks. could bring two very different things at different points in time. market was starting to turn the corner at this point last year. that's when we upgraded many of the builders. a lot of the good news is priced in. that's our message, is that the expectations are very aggressive at this point and i think investors need to be careful because the recovery pattern is not going to be even. there will be speed bumps along the way and we think there are a few speed bumps coming at us in 2013. a bunch of new mortgage regulations will hit the mortgage industry next year and stir up things. number two, we're seeing shortage of skilled labor in the housing industry right now. that's going to slow down some production in a few markets. three, we're running into a shortage of finished lots in a few places out there. but getting back to the point on apartment reits, we think they're significantly undervalued because they really underperformed the indices right now. there's a couple really fascinating data points people need to keep in perspective. one, there's 22 million young adults by the census bureau's
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count living at home. that's bundled up with mom and dad, extra roommates due to economic circumstances. this is all college age millennium kids that came of age in the middle of the recession that basically couldn't get a job or get one that paid enough to cover their rent. we think that's number one. that's tremendous pent up demand for apartments out there. >> but if you don't mind me just jumping in so we can be actionable for the investor here, in terms of your upgrades for multi-family or apartment reits, what are we looking at? >> absolutely. as far as upgrades in the reits, we right now have three names we like best. post properties, pps, mid-america, maa, and essex property trust, ess. common theme among them all, looking for pricing power, rent-income ratios where the tenant can afford to pay much more in the percentage of the income in rent going forward. we think those names offer that opportunity and they're all trading -- all the apartment reits are trading below net
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asset value. there is a huge disconnect between private market valuation and the public market valuations because so much of the momentum has gone to the home building stocks this year as opposed to the apartment trade. we think the apartments are actually the sector that -- the segment of the housing continuum that's showing the signs of the most demand and the most pent-up demand going forward. >> quickly, i thought i heard you say home building will slow because there is a labor shortage. you saying they can't find construction workers? >> there's a few pockets of shortage of activity. remember, this industry has been suffering for five or six years and a lot of the steel trade had to go and change careers. it will take time and money to attract them back in to residential construction. they will come back, don't get me wrong. but it will take some time. that will create some hiccups in the recovery pattern along the way. at these valuations for the home builders, we're just saying investors need to be careful because we're an uncharted territory with a lot of these multiples and the valuations of home builders right now. >> the valuation cal as well. let's look at what the
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markets are up to right now. all three indices are having their worst day in nearly four months. it is also the 25th anniversary of the big crash back in '87. i think you did a back of the envelope calculation. 22% drop for the dow back then is what? about 3,000 points today. >> that's important to put into perspective not only for today's move. i'm not going to minimize it, yes, we're down triple digits. but can you imagine if the dow was down 3,000 points? that is the 22% equivalent of where we are now. that's exactly what happened in 1987. think about that. i know the circuit breakers -- you get my point. >> back in '87, it was only the second-ever triple digit loss. today if we're down triple digits at the end of the trade, that will be number 629 in terms after triple-digit drop. coming up next, what do phil collins, cologne, and boxer briefs all have in common. take your time. we don't mind. there is a relationship. later on, a royal miss with
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mcdonald's. serving up a fast food fight coming your way. this week close to 62 million retirees received a small boost in next year's social security benefits. 1.7 increase, or about an extra $21 a month. the maximum income subject of social security tax will rise over 3% to just under $114,000. so how many working americans will see higher taxes as a result? the answer when we return. when we got married. i had three kids. and she became the full time mother of three. it was soccer, and ballet, and cheerleading, and baseball. those years were crazy. so, as we go into this next phase, you know, a big part of it for us is that there isn't anything on the schedule.
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today's "return on retirement --" how many american workers will pay higher taxes due to the increased social security taxable income maximum? 10 million, according to the social security administration. for more on retirement, go to retirement.cnbc.com. now for a story that may make your brain explode. the ceo of retailer abercrombie & fitch reportedly has some
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very -- interesting demands when flying on the company's private jet. take a look at this list of company jet rules that was brought to light during a lawsuit from a pilot who was let go by the company. okay? male attendants must wear polo shirts. that's fine. boxer briefs. how do you know. flip-flops. and a little spritz -- that's actually the word in the rule book -- of abercrombie & fitch cologne. you've got to wear gloves when serving the ceo food. black gloves when handling the silverware. white gloves when setting the table. by the way, there are specific seating assignments for the ceo's three dogs and when you board the flight -- this is real, folks -- when you board the flight for return home, you must -- the pilot or the attendants must be playing "phil collins "take me home." in kind of an aussie style, this last one. >> i have to say no problem -- no worries, mate.
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>> so this is a company whose stock has been slaughtered over the last year. who is just getting whacked in retail sales. getting beaten in competition and that is part of i think 40-page rule book the ceo has for flying on his private jet. as an investor advocate extraordinaire, herb greenberg, your reaction. >> the worst thing is that you would have to be stuck on that plane with that cologne which is bad enough to have to smell when you're -- >> a spritz. >> a spritz -- no, i don't care. to have to smell that in a plane -- >> but somebody spent a lot of time creating that instead of running the company. >> no. i understand. that's just a -- look. it tells you about shareholder governance and how are they spending their money. >> how are they knowing whether it is boxer or briefs? >> there's a lot of questions that need to be answers. we'll get him on the show. i'm sure he'll come on now. it's been a while since we had a full fledged term alert.
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herb is back raising the red flag on -- >> medtronic. several weeks ago medtronic announces plans to buy a maker of orthopedic implants. in the wake of so many issues with chinese companies that trade in the u.s., there are those who wonder if medtronic really knows everything that it is buying. every since the company was listed on the new york stock exchange in 2010, it has reported quarter after quarter of really impressive results. but, long before medtronic entered the scene, the chinese company had been subject to critical intent analysis by some research firms. the reports shine the spotlight on a number of accounting and earnings quality issues. overstating earnings. in response, medtronic told me it has conducted extensive due
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dill dense reviews of the financial and business operations of the china kunghai. i've been going back and forth with the investor relations representatives offense the past few days. they promised a response at some point but they will not say when. guys, the reason this is important, it reminds me when i first heard about this of mattel and when mattel bought the learning company back in the late '90s. i think it was the late '90s. what i thought there was -- remember, they bought the learning company. the learning company had been the focus of a lot of short sellers. once it was acquired, five months later, mattel blew up because it cited the issues of the learning company. >> not being rude, i'm taking a look at medtronic here, down about 2.4%. >> with the rest of the market. the market doesn't appear too spooked yet. >> no. look, the market won't be too spooked. this is a big part of medtronic's push into china. look, maybe it will work out. look, there are a lot of red flags. you want to pay attention to them. be interesting to see if this is something that will be of
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interest down the road. let's take a quick look at what's happening with the market. we're down 222 points for the dow, sitting a the 13,326. the nasdaq is suffering right now as techs are moving lower. intel, ibm, google, microsoft, and clearly this is the underperformer of the three major averages. >> there are only five nasdaq 100 stocks which is only 5%. they are sandisk, intuitive surgical, ori'reilly automotive. >> intel and and around 52-week lows. we've got a food fight, and we've got maybe the coolest thing ever. >> ever. ever! brian schactman is the luckiest dude. well, look at him! >> this looks like an average
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happy friday, everybody. it is "street talk" time. it is a very down day at this stage, the nasdaq is off by 2.2%. the dow, by 1.6%. >> this is a problem company here, parker hannafin. it bothers me about the markets because i know google's getting all the attention. microsoft's getting all the attention. parker hannafin one of those under-the-radar conglomerates on the industrial side. quarter disappointing. they missed estimates, they cut their forecast and they're cutting their forecast for fiscal year that ends through june 2013. what worries me is that this is another company kind of like owens corning was a couple of weeks ago, nobody pays
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attention. >> how often have we been hearing this earnings season about the stronger dollar. so the tech wreck really again focused on google. guys, amd has just been an absolute disaster. lot of good men and women work for this company. stocks just getting wha inting % year to date. they unveiled a drastic restructuring that will cut about 1,800 jobs. company just continues to burn through cash. fdr cutting to market perform from outperform. they have a $3 target. keep in mind, this was a $36 stock back in june of 2006. this is not an internet high flyer. this is a semiconductor maker and they've gotten really whacked. kind of emblematic of the changes we've seen in technology. athena health is also tanking today. >> athn, that stock down just over 9%. weaker than expected third quarter sales. they're saying full-year revenues will be lower or closer, i should say, to the
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previously issued lower end of the guidance. the ceo calls the quarter, "disappointing." revenue per doctor was lighter than expected. jeffries downgrading to an underperform. stock's done well this year but health care's been a point of strength in this market. >> it really has. year to date up nearly 50% along with a lot of other health care companies that have been on a real ride. riverbed technology is one of today's big winners if there is a bright spot on a down day. we want to find it. >> 11.4% gain where almost every other stock is down. you had solid earnings here. another quarter of double-digit profit growth. sales rose 15.5% year over year. they said sales even did well in europe. think about that. sale actually did well in europe. one of the few companies -- maybe the only so far this earnings season, folks, that i
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have heard say that. >> heinz. this is a ketchup shout out. no particular news but we want to talk about it anyway. right? >> two things here. number one, shout out to you because i have to say, i was lo learning where ketchup comes from. in news for heinz but getting back to its highs, $19.46. they are of course known for their ketchup. but as you know, busy families in australia love their ketchup. mcdonald's trading lower today after recording third quarter profit drop in u.s. sales, let's talk more about mcdonald's. bob darington, analyst at north coast research. bob, bad quarter or a sign of
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risky things to come? >> it is a point of relativity. when you are one of the largest, the biggest, one of the best performing names within the restaurant universe, like mcdonald's and also chipotle, there's a level of expectation out there that the investment community has and if you don't live up to all those expectations, you get punished. i think we're seeing clearly that today. >> who is mcdonald's losing to? is there a particular name out there that's really eating mcdonald's' lunch right now? >> you know, my belief that a lot of the smaller chains who are really kind of ganging up on mcdonald at this point. if you look at relatively speaking, mcdonald's has put up some pretty strong same-story sales for last two or three years. right now we're coming into a period of time where chains like wendy's and burger king and sonic and jack in the box all have some relatively good trends compared to what we've seen recently from mcdonald's. >> i know i'm going to pound you on this a little bit, right? you've been right on so much other stuff. is mcdonald's facing some secular headwind from all this new competition, panera, even
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your old company chipotle, that's going to hurt them for quarters an years to come? >> you know, to be fair, i think it is more of a situation where relatively speaking, they've had so much success, it's not coincidental, i don't think, that all of a sudden we're seeing a slowdown in sales right after they just introduced calorie information to their menus across their system. and i think consumers reconcile what they eat and ultimately the higher calorie typically are higher priced foods. >> that's going to face all of the restaurant chains, isn't it? come next year? >> ultimately towards the end of next year, the whole industry will be faced with it. i think mcdonald is suffering with that right now. >> what does it need to do to get back on top? >> well, i think the company's said they're going to get much more aggressive with their promotional activity. we heard this last quarter on their second quarter call, they said essentially the same thing and they saw a blip up, an improvement in sales trends during the month of ago. then they weakened in september.
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it weakened further in october. so i think for the industry, it's somewhat fearful when mcdonald's really stokes up their marketing muscle, there could be risk out there for other chains. >> how smart or lucky was james skinner for getting out of cbo? >> well, you know, i think all -- >> right? >> all things are relative. so i think there's a lot of that going around right now. >> we should also say that mcdonald, at least the last time i checked, was the biggest weight on the dow today. but we'll continue to watch the markets in terms of how much they're dropping. thank you so much for your comments there, bob. courtney, why don't we get out to you with a flash. >> intel is a blue chip, a dow component but it does trade at the nasdaq, pulling down both of those indices. intel sitting at session lows. also a new 52-week low. shares of intel down more than 12% for the year. earlier in the week they announced those earnings noting weakness in the global economy. like you said, we heard it from
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other companies including mcdonald's today. potentially more worries there for intel. talking of techs, courtney, why don't we get out to the nasdaq now. bertha, we're hearing a lot about tech wreck today. >> we're seeing sentiment move everything here, too. session lows. apple weakening in particular. you have to look at apple as a sector unto itself. it has such a huge weighting within the nasdaq. it is dragging us lower here. take a look at apple as we're down around $615 and change. that is the lows that we've seen since the beginning of august. google definitely the wreck of the week, down over 8% for the week. extending losses here today, moving closer. we're starting -- going to need to watch google as it moves down to the $630 level. all of these tech stocks are well below their 50-day moving average. they're technical support areas, that all means they're weak. google at around $630.
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that's around its 200-day moving average. you already have intel and microsoft there with those lows they are putting in. we're seeing the real sentiment shift here on texas we are gearing up to a very big week for tech next week with apple set to unveil the ipad mini and report results. marissa myer on her first conference call with results. >> well said. numbers bertha gave to you watch, the nasdaq very, very interesting week. right? you had google yesterday coming out -- i know that coming out early got all the attention from google. but let's be realistic. if the coming out early was the only part of the problem, google shares would have rallied once the stock began trading again. the problem was not with the coming out early. it was the numbers itself as we learn now. people are spooked about mobile. they are spooked about the
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constant slowdown in pc sales. right? because the only thing that seems to be working are ipads and smartphones. computers aren't selling. mobile search is slowing down. it's tough to monetize and people on the desktop are simply not there like they used to be. however, i know the market has been down big the last -- today and the last couple of days, as evidenced by this chart. but let's put things into perspective. okay? this is a year-to-date chart of the nasdaq composite. so you could see we had a big run up through april. kind of typical summer swoon. listen. technology, as jim cramer has said very, very often, goes in cycles. technology tends to cycle especially heavily into the fourth quarter because people ramp up their buying of electric gadgets, gizmos, whatever, then companies also want to sort of get their new budget back in order. we have come down -- what is it? couple hundred points now from mid-september as bertha noted. the key to watch is going to be next week. will the companies that are coming out with their earnings
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confirm what we've seen with google, what we've seen with ibm, what we've seen with intel, what we've seen with microsoft. wait a minute. those are the big four, mandy. we're going to take a quick break. mandy, back at the heat wall. more on this market meltdown on a rainy friday in new york on cnbc right after this.
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i'm standing here in front after huge big heat map. i think here behind me where it's all red really just says it all. we should also note despite today's drop in the s&p, it is still higher over the course of the week. today all s&p sectors are lower. biggest laggard is amd. we were talking about that in street talks. and ge is also sharply lower today. this is a bellwether company that has its fingers in a lot of pies. its revenue missed and it is sharply lower as a result. david greenberg is joining us on the cnbc news line. he's president of greenberg capital. gentlemen, we want to talk about what's going on today. i think people are just trying to get a feeling of whether or not the losses that we're seeing today are the start of something
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bigger, that could creep into next week as well. gordon. >> well, maybe there's a little bit of the al smith dinner hangover occurring down here. maria will get into that more later. on an interesting sidebar, al smith also worked down here but everybody liked his brother, chris, more. as far as numbers, we've been stuck in a little bit of a range, obviously very sloppy market today. big ones are getting hurt. generals, google, a lot of hedge fund guys have been lightening up on their hedges because they're looking to be long, they don't want to waste their money going into the end of the year. now they're caught a little bit looking for this market to power through. this one might have cost them a little bit by surprise and it may carry through to next week. >> i think what you're saying here, if i'm hearing you correctly, is we're particularly concerned because of the kind of commentary an earnings misses that we're getting from some really big bellwether names. right? and a lot of multi-national companies as well that kind of speak for the global slowdown
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theory. i want to ask you, david, what would you be doing in terms of your strategy going into next week? >> i've been short for actually a little while and really baffled, to be honest with you, why this market was going up as much as it did. a lot of the shorts are feeling a little bit relieved and vindicated today. what i going into next week is lower on monday then i think we're going see the correction a lot of us have been waiting for. i think that's the key thing to look at. >> what else would you be looking at as far as next week, david? what's the key next week or the week after that? >> well, the key is going to be, like the gentleman was just saying. you have the end of the year coming up for some of these fund mechani mana managers. they do not want to give up most of their profits for the year. if i was the fund manager trading, i would want to lighten up and possibly get short. once the fund managers start playing the short side, they'll pound this on the short side
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just as much as they would try to lift the market on the up side. i think the momentum, if we gap open lower on monday, people are going to trade scared. these are all simply momentum moves. >> gordon, i try to generally avoid getting politics too much into the mix because there's no way to win, but i will say this. earlier this week, the president said that he's not going to make anyday deal on the fiscal cliff unless it involves a tax hike of some kind on the healthy, hard and fast, standing his ground. his supporters are going to love that. however, could that also be a reason why we are lower this week because investors, if they believe it, think the gop may be most likely to give. sell your winners now because you can get whacked in 2013 if the president holds his ground and gets re-elected. >> that's the thing, if he holds his ground.
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going into it, people were looking at the numbers. they were hanging in there. now people are getting a little bit skeptical. are these number really hanging in there? are we going on smoke and fumes to the election day? who's going to win? we have a very figtight electio. you could make a case that either guy is going to be good for the market. now i'm hearing you could make a case either guy could be bad for the market. a lot of uncertainty. we're going to have to really play it close to the vest until we get to election day. you make some good points. >> absolutely. you can pick and choose your bad news on that one. thank you, gordon and david. >> you're welcome. have great day. >> have a great weekend. we're going take a very, very short break. back with more as we have more red on the screen than we have seen in, what, four months? >> four months. >> rainy days and fridays apparently always have the the market down. back after this. [ male announcer ] the markets keep moving.
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it is currently the 25th anniversary of black friday. or black monday, rather. i have friday on mind because we are also down. we're currently down by 1.7% for the nasdaq.
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we also have commodities, not just equities, moving to the downside. a number of commodities moving lower. oil is one of them. let's get out to sharon epperson to find out out what's going on. >> oil prices are down more than $2 right now. we did see the u.s. oil price stay above the $90 mark, at least for the close. it dipped a little below that mark earlier in the session. we are looking at a lot of risk asset coming off the table. this is really a situation where the bad earnings news, the stock market being lower, it really is everything declining in sympathy. as you mentioned, it's not only oil prices and also gasoline prices falling sharply, but it's also metals prices falling. we have gold down more than $20. we have copper down sharply. silver down sharply as well. the key, though, is whether or not these commodities are going
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to be able to hold above those key support levels. so far today they have been able to do so. traders say monday could be a far different story. >> sharon, thank you very much. appreciate it. have a great weekend. >> randy bateman, very quickly, what's the cause of the selloff, randy? >> obviously there's a reflection of what's going on with regard to earnings. i think, you know, we were right in the midst of earnings season. about 20% of the companies have reported on the s&p 500. about 106 have already reported. the numbers on a quarter to quarter basis look okay, but this early in the cycle we're looking at only about 61 that are giving positive surprise situations. that's not that good. you expect later in the cycle you're going to see some of the more weaker players, but we've had some notable disappointments in some of the tech sectors. you saw those numbers yesterday. i think this is going to be a reflection of that. >> randy, thank you so much for joining us on short notice.
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