Skip to main content

tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  October 19, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

3:00 pm
day. >> nothing like that happening today, but nonetheless a fairly stiff selloff as we look at the numbers. i'm tyler mathison in for bill griffeth on a friday. not scary today, not by a long shot. we'd have to be down about 2,000 points to match that day in percentage terms. but it is still, as i just mentioned, a pretty ugly day for the bulls and for the tech sector, which has been leading the way down today. a flurry of bell weathers in that group, including apple, are leading the way. disappointing results from nontech names like mcdonald's. we're going to talk strategy in the next two hour, but first let's look at where we stand right now. the dow industrials off 216 points. if we close down 220 points, we will go negative for the week. right now the dow is off a little more than 1%, but the nasdaq is off 2.25% at 3,004.
3:01 pm
s&p 500, it is down about 1.73% at 1432.13. >> and we had a flurry of disappointing earnings from companies like mcdonald's really fuelling this selloff on top of the weakness we've seen in technology because of weak guidance, weak revenue growth. is this market finally ignoring the moves from the federal reserve and trading on fundament falla ales? >> let's get right to the discussion. mandy drury is with us. so is rick santelli. david, you say, first off, that the earnings haven't been all that bad. today -- >> until today. >> we're trading on earnings that have been not so good. >> 60% of companies are still beating earnings. expectations from portfolio managers like myself were very low going into the earnings reports. i think you'll begin to see when
3:02 pm
we see the fourth quarter and early 2013 that earnings growth will reaccelerate to the high single digit. that's probably the case for next year. in that type of backdrop where i give a double plus to valuation, you can still be a buyer in this market. >> you know, earnings, when you look at the earnings, it's not really the whole story. you can get to better than expected earnings a lot of ways. cutting expenses and changes things around. when you look at actual revenue growth, that's telling you market demand. revenue growth has been slow. >> revenue growth is punky, if that's the right phrase. where i think we're seeing better growth is in cash flow. particularly if you pay attention to company where is the cfo and ceo are paying heed to cash flow. cash flow growth is still very impressive. cash flow margins are improving. we're going to see in this quarter that dividend growth, which i think is a story in baseball terms. go tigers. it's about the middle of the fourth inning. >> i wonder about that dividend
3:03 pm
growth. rick santelli, are you hearing that we could see a change of behavior in terms of dividend payouts if, nfin fact, we were see dividend taxes go high we are this whole fiscal cliff? >> yes, i do. as a matter of fact, traders on the floor are talking about that very topic the last several days as we've seen the president, as we've seen chuck schumer, as we've seen mr. boehner all digging in on their perspective vantage points regarding the issues that could fix the fiscal cliff. so they're digging in. granted, this is electioneering at its finest. it's making traders nervous because obviously we're not going to get anymore clarity until after the election. the bright spot seems to be in a perverse sort of way, that they believe the downturn in equities today is backed on fundamentals. today's earnings, google some of the issues, even though there have been bright spots like housing. ten-year is up ten basis points
3:04 pm
on the week. even though the dollar is having a wonderful day, it is a push on the week. >> mandy, let me turn to you. the tech sector has been the one we all are pointing to this day and this week as the disappointment. not just google but earlier in the week, intel and ibm. >> absolutely. intel, ibm, google, mr. shooftys well. it's certainly one of the romney/ry reasons why the dow is underperforming today. what do it these companies have in common? it seems to be a common theme we're hearing this earnings season. it is global growth has slowed down and is hitting a lot of these multinational companies. as rick santelli was intimating a moment ago, throw in a stronger dollar. that's another thing we've been hearing these companies comment about as well. we're going to have to see what other big tech names disappoint.
3:05 pm
>> david, i was going to ask you, rick mentioned a moment ago the fiscal cliff that is looming, the possibility of higher taxes. mr. romney in the debate earlier this week raised the possibility of no capital gains tax and no tax on dividends if you earn less than, i believe it was $250,000 or $200,000. if he wins, is that kind of idea going to give a big lift to stocks and specifically to dividend paying stocks? >> marginally. it will still come down to individual company fundamentals, individual company metrics. however, on a net, it's going to be plus. we've sneeen in the past democratic president, kennedy, carter, clinton, they have been tax cutters on the capital gains side. i think that transcends politics. keep the tax low. that can be a positive for stocks, even more so for small
3:06 pm
cap stocks. >> is chris with us, christopher williams? >> i think he wasn't able to join us. >> really want to get everybody's take on how you invest in a market selloff like this. we got the dow jones industrial now.age 221 points lower t obviously nervousness about earnings. would you be poised to put money to work here or sell into the selloff? >> i'd want to put it to work with the simple belief that we average a 10% correction once a year. we have that from april to early june. we have 5% corrections on average about two and a half times a year. we're probably due for a 5% hiccup. if we do, i go back to valuation being positive, cash flow margins being positive. if that's the case and i look at expected returns, i want to be a buyer. >> do you buy any of the stocks that have been this week poster children for poor earnings? microsoft, google, and others. are there value there is? >> i think so. the names you mentioned, we are owners of.
3:07 pm
i'd add to that on a smaller to be mid-cap side bioreference labs. they're gaining market share. they're competing well against companies like quest, pp&g, which is a special coating chemical company, doing very well in the auto business. there's the possibility of increasing a dividend on the asset management side. i like franklin resources because they're evenly split between bonds and stocks. i think that's a good play. >> rick, what about housing? there was some good housing data earlier this week. it looks like the housing market is making a bit of a turn but it hasn't been driving the market. >> first of all, i think you're absolutely correct. if we get new home sales next week as well, i think it's been a bright spot. in large part, i think it's been priced in. i think especially when you look at the home builders side it's been more than priced in. remember, bottoming is a good thing. really, what we're talking about is pushing into the economy.
3:08 pm
if it starts to rise and i think there's a lot of debate that stabilization it different than necessarily getting back into an aggressive housing market that a contributes substantially back into gdp. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thanks, everybody. appreciate your time tonight. we'll keep following this market as we see the lows of the day as we approach the time stretch down 226 points on the dow jones industrial average. at this point if we were to close down, we would be negative on the dow industrials for the year. so we are giving much of the moves that we've seen so far. so which stocks are really driving this market lower? we know technology is in the lead. seema mody is breaking down the heat map. >> take a look at the sector heat map. it's a sea of red. as you pointed out, technology leading the pack here, down better than 2.2%. tech stocks feeling the pain once again. microsoft as well as chip stocks posting a big drop.
3:09 pm
materials and utilities also weighing on the index as we're seeing a lot of volatility in the price of oil. also take a look at consumer discretionary, down 2%. stocks being dragged down by mcdonald's. disappointing earnings in other consumer driven stocks like starbucks and yum brands. a quick check on the markets where we stand at this point. take a look at the dow. we're down better than 200 points. nasdaq falling more than 2%. the s&p 500 now testing its 50-day moving average. that, of course, is a key support level. down 1.8%. back over to you. >> 50 shades of red, 50 shades of grey. let's take a look at the dow at ten past the hour. the dow off 228 points. we would be negative for the week if we close there. the nasdaq is off 70 points. >> don't go anywhere. we're just getting started on this jam-packed edition of the "closing bell." we'll have wall to wall coverage of this selloff. plus, believe it or not, there are silver linings in this selloff today.
3:10 pm
stay with us. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac to provide a better benefits package... oahhh! [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at... [ duck ] aflac! [ male announcer ] ...forbusiness.com. ♪ ha ha! to compete on the global stage. what we need are people prepared for the careers of our new economy. by 2025 we could have 20 million jobs without enough college graduates to fill them. that's why at devry university, we're teaming up with companies like cisco to help make sure everyone's ready with the know how we need for a new tomorrow. [ male announcer ] make sure america's ready. make sure you're ready. at devry.edu/knowhow. ♪
3:11 pm
♪ [ male announcer ] how do you make 70,000 trades a second... ♪ reach one customer at a time? ♪ or help doctors turn billions of bytes of shared information... ♪ into a fifth anniversary of remission? ♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and services to help you solve it.
3:12 pm
3:13 pm
welcome back. checking my stats here. just want to make a clarification. the dow jones industrial average down 222 points right here. if we end down 222 points we are negative for the week not for the year. we're still looking at a gain for the year. the doe jones industrial average up 9% year to date. take a look at the damage going on today. we have just 45 minutes left in today's trading session. this quick market stat check on the dow industrial says it all. selloff on wall street. the dow wiping out the gain for the week right now with the dow down 222 points. lackluster earnings from general electric today setting the tone. all ten s&p 500 sectors seeing red today. materials, technology, consumer discretionari discretionari
3:14 pm
discretionarie discretionaries. all leading the market today. technology one of the big drivers of the selloff on the heels of weaker than expected revenue guidance and earnings for a number of tech names. google and a number of social media stocks are taking a pounding. they are reporting, actually, in the next week. that is why that has so many investors worried. google disappointed investors thursday highlighting the continuing struggle the industry is having turning mobility into real money. if they don't solve that puzzle, it could stay ugly for that sector for a while. >> james brem from compass intelligence isn't quite so optimistic. james, you say there are tough times ahead for some of these new media darlings. i guess me question for you is if they're not doing it, who is? what comes to my mind are the telecom providers.
3:15 pm
>> you're absolutely correct. i think bill gates said it several years ago. he said we often overestimate the impact new technology is going to have in two years but underestimate the value in ten. we're still a long ways away from these guys, the social media darlings being able to fulfill their promise. the telecoms have that connection. they have rich data on us. you actually have to have the connection and own the consumer to be able to run those applications. yes, they are, absolutely the people that are going to be making money off of mobility. >> so who is really poised to understand mobility and really capitalize it best in your opinion? let's talk subsectors of technology and even company, james. what's your take? >> yeah, so we've entereds era where every device can be connected to the internet and to other devices and things like that. it's companies like at&t and verizon that really understand mobility. they understand the customer. they understand the technology. they understand the plumbing to
3:16 pm
make all of this stuff work. they work with the hand set manufacturers and device manufacturers to make sure everything works correctly. now they're taking a page from the internet guys and they're bringing in new innovative things. a at&t has their founder in plano, texas. it's run by application guys. they're bringing in these new apps and things like that and developing them to be able to connect new and innovative things. they're not the old phone company of ma bell. they're a new breed. >> let me bring lou into this conversation. the real conversation here is will companies like facebook, google, zynga, and others be able to make money from the small screen just the same way that they did on the large screen? you're encouraged they'll eventually figure it out, but sometimes companies don't figure out new technologies. >> at the end of the day, it's actually not that complicated. marketers have to reach people. they reach people where they are.
3:17 pm
if they're on facebook or on google, whether it's desk top or on the cell phone, marketers are going to want to reach them. where we are today is at the very beginning of this transition to mobile. it's happening quite quickly. most of the websites who advertise with google today don't have an optimized website for the mobile experience. when people click over in a mobile world to these websites, they don't transact like they do on desk tops. so they're not willing to pay what they pay on the desk top today for mobile. over time, every single website is going to be mobile optimized and going to be able to pay a lot more for the clicks they're going to get from google. >> and what about the companies under pressure as people question their ability to really capitalize on mobility? you know, you've got a new term that everyone's talking about now. that's big data. not just the traditional day that that the oracles of the world have been organizing, but data from refrigerators and oil rigs and cameras and cell phones. tell me who is losing and
3:18 pm
winning on this new world. >> well, i really think a big winner from all of this big data is going to be facebook because nobody has more data than facebook does. they just introduced the facebook exchange where they're going to take all this data about what consumers are going off of facebook and leverage that to give them more targeted advertising on facebook. we're already starting to see some really great programs coming from that facebook exchange. >> lou, james, thank you very much. maria, you've just scared the bejesus out of me. my refrigerator is telling secrets about me. it knows a lot about me. thanks very much, guys. as google and facebook keep having problems, monetizing and mobility are either a buy right now. we're going to look at that when we continue our special coverage of this friday selloff. >> 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds. we have a market at the low, down 214 points. take a look at the dow jones
3:19 pm
industrial average with a 1.5% decline. coming up, a self-made billionaire is spending millions of his own money to balance our nation's slide into socialism. >> america's wealth comes from people striving for success. take away their incentive and you take away the wealth that helps us take care of the needy. >> the ceo of interactive brokers explains why a vote for mitt romney will give you the freedom to succeed. then from facebook's ipo debacle to google's earnings mess, it's getting shakier. roger ferguson will explain how to restore confidence. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. rnor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national.
3:20 pm
because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. yes, it is. mike rowe here at a ford tell me fiona, who's having a big tire event? your ford dealer. who has 11 major brands to choose from? your ford dealer. who's offering a rebate? your ford dealer. who has the low price tire guarantee... affording peace of mind to anyone who might be in the market for a new set of tires? your ford dealer. i'm beginning to sense a pattern. buy four select tires, get a $60 rebate. use the ford service credit credit card, get $60 more. that's up to $120. where did you get that sweater vest? your ford dealer.
3:21 pm
if we want to improve our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this.
3:22 pm
and technology stocks leading the selloff today. a big part of the decline is due to a company that didn't report earnings this week, apple. bertha coombs is at nasdaq with the details. >> the bar is set high now for apple given we've had a lot of big tech companies disappoint. apple on track here for its fourth straight week of decline. it hasn't had a performance that bad since the market bottom of march 2009. it'll be down 12% in the last four weeks hovers near it's 150-day moving average. big expectations for next week's
3:23 pm
debut of the ipad mini and also then of course the earnings. google having its worst week since the week of august 19th, 2011. now down for its second consecutive week. this is the problem with technology. these are the two high fliers here in the nasdaq that have really been carrying the momentum. right now those high fliers are pretty much grounded. intel trading below its 200-day moving average. it slipped there over the last few days. it went negative for the year last month hovering today at a new year low. guys, back to you. >> bertha, thank you so much. meanwhile, facebook shares down today. down pretty big, nearly 5%, in part because of google's troubles. you remember the fear around mobility. the fear is facebook will have the same trouble monetizing mobile like google had. so is this a buying opportunity for either? on the technical side, jacie
3:24 pm
o'ho o'ha o'hara. thank you for joining us. we're going to look at the technical side of things, but brian, let me start with fundamentals. how much should facebook investors take away from the google story? >> initially i thought a lot. later i realized not much. the numbers on google were decent. there wasn't much read across to facebook. >> so you don't think we're going to have the same kind of trouble in terms of monetizing mobility? >> there may be, but that's a separate issue. i think that facebook's got a lot of different issues going on. i think they may have decelerating revenue growth, but the google numbers didn't tell us anything about that. google's numbers on mobile were actually really good. their problems were with motorola mobility pmplt all right. so it doesn't really give you any info there. let's talk about these charts. google and facebook. what with do you like in terms of the technicals. >> i like google, but let's look at facebook. you don't have to be an expert
3:25 pm
to know this does not look too good. a lot of clients say we might be puts in a base. is that true? i don't think so. i think we're setting up for another leg lower. the reason i say that is the simple issue of supply and demand. when facebook came to market, a lot of shares flushed the market. not that much demand, pushed lower. you moved ahead to november, we're also going to see another lock expire and more shares hit the market. with no demand, we think it's going to go lower. >> so both. you want to be expecting lower lows here. >> yes, exactly. >> is there anything you would say, you know, represents some kind of a buying opportunity that you would say, okay, now might be the time to get in on these names? >> i wouldn't be looking at facebook until it drops under 15. >> wow, 15. >> i do like google. i'll tell you why. yes, the bears having running rampant, but i think longer term, it's not that severe. i think this is giving us a great buying opportunity. we had a great triangle formation here. the bulls were getting ready.
3:26 pm
they jumped on it as soon as it broke to the multiyear high. however, it got a little extended, ran a little past its fundamental. with pulled back. right now we're hitting support between the 700 and 650 area. i think it's a great buying opportunity. >> all right. we'll watch that. thank you, gentlemen. >> maria, the dow down about 198 points off the lows and now back to the positive territory for the week. the nasdaq down about 64 points as we move along here with about 33 minutes before the closing bell. business owners sounding the alarm about tax policy out of d.c. or the lack of tax policy and consistency out of d.c. are there worries contributing to this big selloff? the ceo behind -- the company behind the warning will join us exclusively straight ahead. after we close this ugly day on the market, tiger woods will be with us exclusively. can lance armstrong recover from
3:27 pm
his exodus of sponsors? we'll ask tiger that and also about his latest investment. of course, today is the 25th anniversary of black monday when the dow industrials fell 22% in a single session, a record that still stands. as we head to the break, here's a look at the biggest all-time dow percentage declines. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 as if i'm right there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i'm in total control because i can trade tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i use their global research to get an edge. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 their equity ratings show me how schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rates specific foreign stocks
3:28 pm
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals, momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i also have access to independent tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 firms like ned davis research tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and economist intelligence unit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 plus, i can talk to their global specialists 24/7. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and trade in my global account commission-free tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 through march 2013. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 best part... no jet lag. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-711-5510 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and a global specialist tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 will help you get started today.
3:29 pm
3:30 pm
at 31 minutes past the hour, the dow industrials now down 206 points or thereabouts. earlier this week we began with a 95-point gain, 128-point gain. seems like ages ago we were talking about vikram pandit stepping down at citigroup all that's happened since then. >> we've had such volatility in this market. you have to believe this it all about fundamentals. we know the global economy is slowing. we though we've seen cracks in the armor in europe. that's the least of it, obviously. but, you know, now we're getting to see the impact on earnings. at the end of the day, investors put money to work in this market because of growth in earnings. the revenue has been light. even if earnings are beating expectations, they're getting
3:31 pm
there in a number of ways that really does not suggest economic growth. >> it is easier to finesse and finagle earnings than it is revenues. there are lots of ways you can help eps. you can buy back stock. >> you can cut to the bone, which is what many companies have been doing. but revenue is really an indicator of end market demand. that's why we're so focused on revenue as well as guidance. >> and we knew there was a slowdown globally in the economy. it's now showing up in corporate fundamentals. >> fundamental matter. the last couple of weeks the market was so focused on free money that the fundamentals were in the backseat. you knew they were going to catch up to us. we'll see. it could be a buying opportunity at the end of the day. right now we're right smack dab in the middle of earnings and it hasn't been a positive situation. this probably isn't helping the
3:32 pm
sentiment on wall street either, by the way. a new survey indicating small business owners are getting increasingly worried about the economy's ability to grow. a big majority expect their taxes to rise, number one. if that happens, 58% say they will be delaying any expansion plans because of cost cutting. they have higher expenses. they have to take cost out of the business. 54% say they're going to stop hiring altogether. >> joining us now is the head of the company behind that report, liam mcgee. big company earnings are slipping and now small businesses seem very worried. not a good recipe. we see it in the stock market today, mr. mcgee. i'm very cure yos as to why confidence seems to have dropped off as much. it was 33% in your most recent survey. in the spring it was 61%. what happened? >> first of all, great to be with you and maria again.
3:33 pm
as you know, small businesses' optimism for the future u.s. economic situation has deteriorated fairly significantly in the last six months. it's interesting, however, small businesses are say -- more than two-thirds are saying they still feel moderately successful. i think the answer to your question is there's tremendous uncertainty out there. small businesses and their owners pay close attention to the stalemate in washington. they're concerned, as the survey showed, about regulations. and they're concerned about health care costs as well as the uncertainty of health care reform. >> so the uncertainty of health care reform is something i want to get to. how significant is that expense for small business? what we keep hearing is that small business, because of the uncertainty, they don't know what their tax rates will look like. they don't know whether spending programs will be cut and how
3:34 pm
that will impact their business. and they are upset about the rise in their expense side of the business because of health care. how significant is that expense? >> well, i can't quantify it, maria, but i can tell you notwithstanding, their uncertainty and lack of confidence about health care costs and the unknowns of health care reform, more than half of them still say they don't plan to drop the benefits for their employees. one of the strong things that comes through the survey is that small business owners, 70% of them view creating a comfortable standard of living with benefits for their employees as an important part of business and why they define success. >> what are their biggest worries? >> well, when you talk to more than two-thirds of them, the macroeconomic environment was clearly their largest concern. after that, it's taxes, it's regulations, and it's health
3:35 pm
care costs. 77% of the respondent -- and as you know, this survey is we think the most extensive survey of small business owners. more than 2,000 companies and owners responded nationwide. 77% of them say that they're virtually certain that their taxes are going to go up in the near future. as a result of that, they're not going invest, and they're not going to hire. >> all right. we'll leave it there. really important information there. we'll keep following it. thanks so much. we appreciate your time tonight. >> okay. thanks, maria. >> thank you. we have a market down about 196 points. if we close down 220 points, that would erase all of the gains for this market for the week. we're stvery strong on the year, up 13% on the s&p 500, up 9% year to date on the dow jones industrial average. >> basically gone after a very strong monday and tuesday. so does today's selloff mean fundamentals are finally
3:36 pm
starting to matter to investors as we were just discussing a moment ago? why some say if that's true, look out below. one of the nation's richest men warning today that the ugly day on the street will only get worse because america is on the slippery slope to socialism. he's now spending millions to reverse the trend. listen to this. >> yes, in socialism the rich will be poorer, but the poorer will also be poorer. people lose interest in really working hard and creating jobs. >> interactive broker ceo joins us live to explain why this election could be a major turning point in american history. plus, he's been a big opponent of high-frequency trading. we'll talk about that as well. but first, before we go to break, the dividend. which of these dow stocks has been part of the industrials index since its creation in 1896? alcoa, d it upont, or general electric? the dividend pays off after the break.
3:37 pm
management system and the world's only tridion safety cell which can withstand over three and a half tons. small in size. big on safety. which can withstand over three and a half tons. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level.
3:38 pm
let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the strength of a leader in retirement planning. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you one-to-one. together for your future. ♪
3:39 pm
[ male announcer ] the exceedingly nimble, ridiculously agile, tight turning, fun to drive 2013 smart. ♪
3:40 pm
just before the break as part of the dividend, we asked, which of these dow stocks has been part of the industrials index since its creation in 1896? alcoa, dupont, or general electric? now the payoff. general electric. >> it is not just stocks getting hammered today. oil, other commodities also getting crushed. sharon eper sw eperson with the details. >> we are seeing a selloff here in oil and metals, and it's a broad selloff. down as much as 2 or 3% in all of these commodities. the good news for consumers is we're also seeing a big drop in gasoline prices. we've seen prices slide retail gasoline prices down 10 cents in the past week, just below $3.22 cents a gallon. in ohio, prices have dropped 24 cents in the past week. some other states also seeing
3:41 pm
much bigger drops than that 10% mark. 9/11 new york and california, which have some of the highest prices, we've seen a significant price drop. so that's a little bit of good news for consumers going into the weekend. back to you. >> all right, sharon. thank you very much. the market selling off on this, the 25th anniversary of black monday. all major averages plunging nearly 2%. of course, 25 years ago it was 22%, which would translate to about 3,000 dow points today. so is it a one-day event, or will weaker earnings bring more declines ahead? >> well, that's what we're looking at. here to break it down right now is david from morgan stanley and our own bob. david, you've been calling for 1167 for the s&p 500. >> that's correct. the market has surprised us to the up side, mainly because we've been right with the earnings. however, the price earnings m l
3:42 pm
multiple has expanded. spain's bond yield are down. quantitative easing in the united states and the outright monetary transactions by the european central bank. all of those things have led people to basically give a higher multiple to the earnings. that's what's happened. that was our weighted average. turns out we were too low with our bullish part, which was up only 15%. probably should have been higher. that having been said, the market's going to continue to be driven by earnings. you see this over and over. finally, last night's al smith dinner, both candidates plus the cardinal said the best looking person there was maria boo bartiromo. >> thank you. >> that was true. >> i enjoyed that tremendously. sitting right behind president obama and mitt romney was very interesting. >> trust me, we were not looking at them. >> thank you. all right. you are amazing. christian, let's talk investing here. a market down 200 points.
3:43 pm
are you a seller or buyer? >> buy into it. this earnings season is still going quite well. i know we've had two surprises, but on the top line growth. this shouldn't have been too much of a surprise because we knew we were going in to a weak second and third quarter nominal gdp. i think what happened the guidance sort of narrowed and narrowed. as companies missed a bit, there were selloffs. i don't think it's that dramatic or they're going to be that permanent. we've been buyers throughout the day. >> david, i want to talk more about maria, obviously, but did i hear you right? you think the s&p is going to be down at 11 -- what did you say? >> our weighted average number for year end -- we got to be honest here. >> that's 300 points. >> that's right. that's what we were calling for most of -- >> should i -- >> no, you're going to watch profits. they've been very punishing to people who have missed.
3:44 pm
you psee microsoft and mcdonald's. when you miss, they punish you. >> tell him why he's wrong. >> it would put the market on about 11 times. the market is coming in steady at about $100 of earnings and about $35 of dividends on a 1400 point. we've seen dividends increase by 22% in the last two years. that's a good underpinning for the market. i don't think we're going to see much weakness if at all. >> what recovers this for the fourth quarter? if you're already seeing this global slowdown impacting corporate sector and seeing weak revenue and weak guidance, why do we think that changes in the fourth quarter? >> we know what's going on in the eu. i don't think we're going to see anything bad on that side. we know what the fiscal cliff is potentially. it's been discounted into the market. we have two important backstops in the market. one is the fed with qe at the $80 billion. they're going to run that
3:45 pm
through, as we know, until they start hitting their unemployment targets. of course, the other one is the the ecb, which hasn't done a thing yet. the omt, the outright monetary transaction program, is sitting there ready to go. i think that will be a good backstop. >> so what should i do? >> fourth quarter, we think will be only 1.2% growth. this quarter, we're going to get the first look at the third quarter. we think 1.5, then 1.2, then 0.9. a very slow deceleration. be defensive. go with your johnson & johnson, which just made a new 52-week high. that's the kind of stock to build on. also, you want dividend paying, good growth things and things you find in your pantry and medicine cabinet and closet. >> bob, what are you seeing today? >> look, no pull back. since june, we hit the bottom. there has been no pull back that's deeper than 4%. not a single one. there is no particular reason right now to believe that's going to change dramatically.
3:46 pm
i agree. i'm not particularly happy with the fact that the banks held up, but now that we're getting tech earnings, the revenues are not really there for the pc sales. also, materials in the industrial names are very, very defensive it right now and very, very -- just very cautious in their guidance. i will bet you that just as they lowered the numbers in the third quarter and they're trying to lower expectations for the fourth quarter that with the fed behind you -- and there's a fed meeting next week, folks. and spain moving towards at least some kind of broader resolution, i'll bet you this is some kind of trough. >> all right, bob. thank you very much. gentlemen, thank you. have a good weekend. >> great to see you. thanks so much. david, thank you so much. we'll see you soon. about ten minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day, for the week. we are off the lows, meaning we could still eke out a positive showing for the dow for the week. still a 1.5% decline today. >> not all bad news today on
3:47 pm
wall street. can you believe it some stocks actually hit new highs today. >> want to get that list coming up. then reaction to today's big selloff. stay with us. roger ferguson my guest, ceo of tiaa-cref and former vice chairman of the federal reserve. then we're going to end on a positive note. we're going to talk with tiger woods in the next hour. and think october of this year has been scary for the bulls? nothing compared to october of 1987. the dow plunging more than 22% 25 years ago today on what went down as black monday. ♪ [ male announcer ] how do you turn an entrepreneur's dream... ♪ into a scooter that talks to the cloud? ♪ or turn 30-million artifacts... ♪ into a high-tech masterpiece?
3:48 pm
♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and services to help you solve it.
3:49 pm
3:50 pm
welcome back. tough market today. we have breaking news right now on citi. let's get to kate kelly at headquarters. >> thanks so much. confusion seems to be reigning
3:51 pm
this week. this happened in an informal conversation of board mens right after pandit resigned, i'm told. the job is not something he apparently wants to pursue right now. and now it appears that global consumer banking chief may get instead. at the same time, citi is considering doing away with that post altogether. that president coo job. nobody seems in a rush to organize the moving parts. >> very interesting and a lot of moving parts there surely are at citi these days. >> wow, all right. thanks so much. >> it, of course, has been a bit of an ugly day on wall street on this 25th anniversary of black monday. selloff today. nothing of that scale, but on a scale nonetheless. we have a big selloff on our hands after a good week. let's look at today's drop. as you see, the dow off its lows, but nonetheless down. almost 185 points. if we close with a drop of at least 220 points, all of the
3:52 pm
week's earlier gains will be erased for the week. >> we need some good news, right? listen up. if you own these stocks, you are actually making money today because they are hitting new high, though some have pulled back slightly. we want to show you these stocks making new highs today. exxonmobil, lowe's, capital one, honeywell, all at new highs. kroger hitting a new high earlier. just off that new high. we have some winners to share with you. there is the rest of that list. >> so what is the deal here with some of these stocks moving? i think you have to just pick into those particular names. you look at kb homes and some others, you say, well, what's going on? housing has been doing a little bit better. it comes down to what we were talking about earlier. business fundamentals here. food companies as well. sort of consumer staples doing
3:53 pm
all right in this environment. some of the other companies more globally exposed, some of those technology companies. >> again, that's also fundamentals too. technology is trading off, selling off because of the fundamentals of the slowdown we're seeing. we've heard from microsoft, ibm, google, intel, a number of these companies talking about light revenue, talking about, you know, revenues that did not meet expectations. so that's where we're seeing the selling. you do have committed, real conviction in some of those names that we just showed in housing, in food, the areas where the momentum has been. >> some have said, stay with the american stocks that have more of their business in america right now to avoid some of the global problems in europe and china and so forth. all right. that's that for today for this segment. the market a few minutes away from finishing this very ugly friday. we'll have the final tally next. >> after the bell, it is tiger time. joining me for an exclusive, tiger woods will be here with me exclusively explaining how he's going from the green to making
3:54 pm
some green on wall street. we'll talk about with tiger woods in the next hour. you're watching the "closing bell" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.
3:55 pm
[ male announcer ] fedex office. if we want to improve our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers
3:56 pm
so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.
3:57 pm
and the industrials off about 200 points, 199 right now as we've been saying, if we close down 220 or thereabouts, the week's gains will be erased. the nasdaq has been the big loser or lagger today, down 66 points. >> the market is under pressure on the heels of some earnings we saw. ge at beginning of the day today. microsoft at the end of the day yesterday. it really did impact people's perception of what's going on in this third quarter. we knew we were going to get a contraction in earnings. i don't know why this is a surprise. >> exactly. >> we were expecting this. for like weeks i've been talking about when are fundamentals going to matter again. we're seeing that today, not that this is necessarily a long-term thing. warren, i see there was an imbalance on the buy side at the end of the day. give us some color as far as what's going on at the end of the day here. >> we have an expiration day today, so we had a bigger volume on the open end. it was originally a mixed bag
3:58 pm
early in the afternoon. it's leaning toward the buy side. i don't think you're going to get a massive push here at all. >> david, what do you think is going to come next week? what are you looking for? >> well, you've got the new home sales. you've got the fed. you've got the third debate on monday. of course, the gdp number on friday. basically what you want to see is spain move and now ask for aid. that would be very nice. i think the markets today did not like the fact that they finished this two-day summit and there was no mention of spain asking for aid. >> i'm going to jump out. have a good weekend. >> what are you looking for next week? >> on top of the economic data, we have a lot more earnings coming out. on monday, we have caterpillar, which will be a good indication of how the industrials are doing. we have apple later in the week on thursday. given the way the tech numbers have been the last few announcements, all eyes are on apple. >> what do we like here, kansas or the big east?
3:59 pm
you have to choose. >> definitely the j-hawks. we'll wrap it up for this trading week. looking like we're going to close down about 206 points. thanks for joining us. now maria continues with the "closing bell." and 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange on a friday afternoon. happy friday to you. a sea of red to tell you about today on wall street on this, the 25th anniversary of black monday. take a look at how we're settling out on the street today with the dow jones industrial average in a triple-digit selloff, down 206 points. that's 1.5% at 13,343. volume picked up at the end of the day as well. there was no end, though, in sight to the selling. although, you did have a handful of stocks actually hitting new

278 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on