help. it's time for wall street to work overtime if and when that trust returns, we all know that will help a lot more than just wall street. that'll do it for us today, i hope you'll follow me on twitter on google plus. have a fantastic night, stay with cnbc, here's "fast money" now. even ben bernanke couldn't save the bulls from a stock market selloff today. >> we talk about the fed leaving the foot on the gas pedal. they didn't here. they have placed a 50-pound cinder block on the gas pedal with a rope tied to the steering wheel. >> right. >> and they are saying this, we are staying with this low policy, easy money, free credit essentially policy until things get better. no matter how long it takes. >> how much longer can investors wait for washington to strike a deal on the fiscal cliff? >> people say business leaders should be more vocal. look, we're vocal. you know, this is a complete distraction at a -- an important distraction at a time when the country doesn't need it.

>> warren buffett's buying the dip in size. >> last week i bought some wells fargo. >> you did? >> we only have 430 some manager shares, i didn't feel we had enough. >> should you be buying too? fresh off the trading floors, this is "fast money." live from the nasdaq market site in new york's time square, i'm simon hobbs in for melissa lee. let's get tonight's market ax action. another selloff for stocks. utilities, energy, and the transports led the declines today. is this the pause that refreshes or something more serious? guy, does this leave a bad taste in your mouth? >> interesting choice of word. >> we've got a lot of gum on the desk to avoid that. go ahead, guy. >> oh, is that me? no, not at all. i think the market's in a new trading range. we talked about it at halftime yesterday, simon. we made a run at that 14 1/4

level. we probably trade down to 1,379, 1,380, hold and bounce from there. i think the market's going a lot lower in the foreseeable future. the range to me is 1,379. the transports had a terrible day. and you know what's funny, norfolk southern one of the bell weather railroads, that made a 52-week low today, i think if you polled a lot of people in the business, they wouldn't say that. >> for those that aren't trading but are kind of more investing, when you say the market's heading lower in the foreseeable -- >> significantly lower. >> what does that mean? >> well, i think -- >> i'm in this camp. i think the s&p 500 earns, let's call it $100, just round numbers makes the math easier. and i'm also of the belief it doesn't necessarily need to have the multiple that historically it's carried, 14 1/2, 15, i'm more in the 12 1/2, 13. just do the math. >> why? >> because i think the world is slowing down to the point that's the right multiple going

forward. i don't think historical multiples lend itself to where we are now. >> would you kick off with china and the fact we've bottomed there? >> yeah, and dare i use the term green shoot. >> nice. >> march of '09, we had green shoots, but the flash pmi at 49.1. it's the 12th straight month of contracting. bull still, a three-month high and if you listen to what a lot of guys have been saying in the resource space, freeport, copper production is booming, we're starting to see at least some firm and actually decent price moves upward in coca-cola and iron ore prices. to me, you are seeing real recovery in china. it's not bombastic, it's something that is slow. that's right, bombastic. >> word. >> again, we've taken the other part of this equation. spain was out there on the tape, finance minister late in the day saying they funded all the way through 2012, beginning in 2013, that the bond auctions are primarily international investors. you got at least some feeling that some of the tail risk is off the market. and in that environment.

>> that's really interesting, because bk takes the opposite view. he believes that is risk. >> bring it. >> as soon as i saw that news, to me it said, okay, spain's not going to have a bailout. and the only reason that 50% to 80% of the auctions were bought by international investors is because everybody's betting they are going to get bailed out and you're going to make money there. so now when spain goes to the market, nobody's going to show up to that auction, at least that's what i'm afraid of. so you're starting to lose the bullish here, but you had the fomc today which had zero impact. i don't think most people remembered -- >> why should it have? >> well, it's from 2009 to -- up to september 13th, 2012, it moved the market significantly. today it was a no-show. and it's a confidence game. right now it's a confidence game. the fed needs you to believe they can change the economy. if you do not believe, it's a problem. >> they told us the economy is a bit firmer. rates low until the middle of 2015. >> if the economy's a bit

firmer -- >> really quickly, people that are expecting qe-3 to show up in third quarter earnings are crazy. so people that think the qe-3 should've paid results right now are missing it. that's not what's supposed to be happening. and in fact, i think you're seeing it in the housing market and i think that's something that carries into next year. but don't point third quarter earnings disappointments on qe-3 not working. >> i kind of agree with guy. i think the market's expensive here, it's going to go lower, but i think everyone's hiding out in staples, coca-cola, johnson & johnson, now's the time to raise cash, we saw some stability over in china, saw the pmi numbers come out, chairman of the dow saw stability over there. start getting in the cyclicals, the housing you just mentioned, tim. >> why would you go to cyclicals if the market's moving lower? >> getting out of staples. i think the market's ultimately going higher. in the short-term, going lower, raise some cash, get back in the market, everyone's holding out in the yield names, start looking at cyclical names. i think the market's going higher in the next 12 months.

>> let's not forget that mike is with us at the options desk. what do you make of today's trade? >> it's interesting. the options volume definitely fell off from yesterday, but i think bearish sentiment persists there. certainly going into the remaining earnings that we have, you know, what we're seeing, pretty much, 75% of the stock to where you're looki itaking a lo earnings, more put buying than call buying. overall when you look at the options markets view of the universe right now, they're skeptical and looking down, not up. >> is that true, tim? would you concede that? >> that the options markets are looking down, not up? we're playing options opportunistically, but again, i would point to the fact that a lot of the major indices are in no man's land. if i want to try to straddle the views on this desk, we're not anywhere near technical support. 3% away from technical support. and i think that's where we need to really test things. and then i think markets do go higher, but volumes over the last couple of days actually

haven't been that bad. some of these price moves, turns, you have people coming, you see moves, that's what we need. and i don't think you have an apathetic approach here. >> look, if there's one stop that can move the market, it is apple, indeed, amazon, of course, announced their results tomorrow. we now that apple sold 100 million ipads since the device was released in 2010. that fell short of what many people estimated. do we have in a market a warning signal from tim cook and from apple? cnbc's jon fortt has that and more. >> a lot of analyst on the air yesterday, you definitely took it that way. the stock took a dive during the keynote when cook said they passed the 200 million mark two weeks ago. the estimates, i think the street was looking for 18.5 million ipads in the quarter and his comments could suggest that apple did about 15.8 or so in

the quarter. another thing, apple was probably drawing down ipad inventory during the quarter getting ready to launch a surprise fourth generation ipad. if tim cook sold 15.8 million ipads, they might have shipped a few less than that. we'll have to wait for the numbers to see what he meant. beyond that, this is an earnings report quite a few analysts seem to be saying doesn't matter much because so many of apple's moves have been setting up for q-4. depressed iphone sales ahead of the iphone 5 launch, macs overall don't have the strongest quarter in the summer and apple did a major refresh of the imac for the holidays. so other key areas cook is likely to address, china, inventory levels, margins and apple's ability to deliver millions of these new ipads in this crucial holiday quarter. the areas that hint at apple's overall momentum might matter more than the hard numbers this time, guys. >> jon, it's bk, we've seen

multiple releases from apple. this is a stock that trades on the hope for a new product release. we have everything else out there. >> it seems it's all out there certainly for this year, at least from what i can tell. when you head into next year, used to be they would do an announcement at the end of january, you know, something in march with the ipad. now i wonder if that space might be cleared for something else. the mac book air could use a refresh. you know, nothing specifically i'm hearing at all. >> before we lose you, jon, 15.8 million, if they had sold that which is where you started on the ipads, that's what they think they should sell. it's slightly more than raymond james, it's not exactly. that would not imply the stock was falling out of bed when that product is such a small amount of total revenue anyway. >> no, not a bad number, they did 17 million in the last print that we saw. so i think a lot of people are

trying to gauge, is the ipad cycle more like the ipod? which is heavily holiday weighted or more like the iphone which gets influenced by some other factors? and we don't have enough of consistent picture of the ipad. >> okay, jon, for the moment, thank you very much. let's trade it around the desk. tim? >> i think you have a stock that is in a range where there's nothing to support it. the pain trade out there in the hedge fund community is guys that were short facebook and long ibm. >> i'm sorry to be so rude. aren't they releasing results tomorrow? can't that be hugely supportive of the stock? >> it has been in the past. but p when we talk about the bar being raised extremely high, i think a lot of guys are in this trade. and i think when you look at iphone sales next year, to grow 70% which is about what average they've done the last three years, these guys need to sell over 200 million units next year and that's not going to happen. and again, they are hurt by the bar they've raised too high. it's not a valuation question, it's an overcrowded trade where it's show me now and there's not much to show them. i think the stock goes down to

580 before you get good support. >> i'll say this, the last three days of the stock including monday when it had a tremendous reversal, the low was give or take 50 cents about 610 held each time, we talked about this on "halftime" yesterday. i'm of the belief with the selloff we've seen, the stock's down nearly $100 over the last month or so. be looking for an entry point in apple, it's given you one in the form of 610. understanding that, anything can happen post earnings and that's after the bell tomorrow. but again, for point of reference, i think 610 is very interesting now. >> yeah, i think it's trading heavily if you look at it here. last year, hit a high in october, retreated in september. moved up at the end of the year. i think it would be difficult for apple to hit 700 before the end of the year. i think people are getting apple fatigue. >> and the pain trade is in the hedge fund, and a lot of individual investors have a significant amount of their portfolio in apple. it is a fairly important stock here and if that's heavy, that's

going to weigh on the s&p and we might get to that 1,380 level guy's talking about. >> and eyes on best buy, shares that have fallen after hours. that is right, simon, i do have the latest as a matter of fact, we are looking at this stock in the after hours session. looks like we beat on the eps -- sorry, okay, actually we're talking about best buy. yes, we have a little bit of a change there. let's talk about that for a second. as a matter of fact -- >> well, maybe i can help you out, jackie. first of all, they said that senior management the top layer is going. and i think we were discussing in the green room whether there was a profit warning in here, guy? >> best buy, looks like when i looked at it inside where they lowered estimates, they guided lower once again. and listen, folks, we have done on this show. we've warned about being long the stock any time and, again, i'll say sub16, i see no compelling reason. at least i see no compelling reason to be getting into best buy. >> jackie, do you have more to

adhere before we move on? >> no, simon, i think you summed it up quite well for me, thank you so much. >> we are sub 16, and again, the probe down to the lows of roughly august 21 is where actually this stock has tested right here. the fact that executives are leaving tells you this stock is in even more long-term transition in addition to structurally having a broken business model. >> would you short it here, tim? >> i don't play best buy and i wouldn't short a stock like this because there's a ton of event risk. i think this stock probably has tested a level and if it finds support here, it's a buy/trade, but something to be careful. >> okay. up next on the program, is ben bernanke helping or hurting the markets? and should the fed chair stay or go? the outspoken and influential steve forbes will be here with some strong words on policy, gold, and much more. why he thinks mitt romney is good for this market.

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hey, it's raining on the cloud, f5 taking a big hit with earnings missing estimates. guidance also disappointing the stock down 11% after hours. guy, would you step in? >> not necessarily tomorrow, but you're going to have a capitulation-type trade. and you've seen this low at some point mid-2011. it's not like we haven't been here in the stock. valuations are not that stretched even with the lowered guidance. this is one of those -- people have been waiting for the exact sop sit in this stock. that's why it's down as much as

it is. the huge volume day tomorrow, friday, you step in and get long this name. >> here's a question for you, has the fed gone too far with the easy money policy? bond king of pimco had strong words today for the central bank following the statement this lunchtime that said the economy was better and rates would stay low for a long time. >> the fed has been trying to do for a long time now is to elevate asset prices. i mean they pumped the stock market until 2000. then they pumped the housing market until 2007, and now they've pumped the stock market again. so, it's a fair question as to whether this is an appropriate policy. i don't think it is. >> well, let's bring in steve forbes, editor and chief of forbes media. i take it you're in opposition to ben bernanke. >> i think in the nation's service, he ought to resign year end, christmas present for the nation. this trashing of the u.s. dollar never works. weak money always means a weak recovery. this idea the fed can guide the

economy stimulate the economy is absolutely false. there's never a time in history where you get a sustained recovery when you have a weak currency. history's against him. >> well, i was going to say, mr. forbes, what do you think is ultimately the end result of the financial depression we go through as savers and also our cost of living is significantly higher than what we're returning. isn't this setting us back even farther down the hill than what it's doing for us? >> what he's done for the first time in history with this massive buying of long-term securities is for first time in a long time we as a nation are consuming wealth rather than creating wealth. first, we're punishing savers, medium and small-sized businesses have an uncertain access to credit. why? because when you can't trust the price of credit anymore on any commodity, anything, you can't trust the price you get less of it. no one really believes, for example, a ten-year treasury should yield 1.8%, 1.7% with the finances of the u.s. government. so if you can't trust the treasuries as a benchmark, all

the other prices you can't trust. >> so let's follow this through and say you get your christmas wish and ben bernanke retires or resigns at the end of the year. obviously we're going to pop the stock market bubble, stock market goes down, who knows how much. do you have a target for what would happen to the stock market and any other asset prices they've pumped up? >> well, if bernanke resigns and the new president, president-elect romney makes it clear we're going to have a stable dollar, that's going to be good for stocks. you're not going to get a sustained recovery unless you have a stable currency for the first time since the early '30s. every major nation has been devaluing its money. >> hasn't bernanke been great for stocks? >> no, he hasn't. we haven't gone anywhere since the late 1990s. yeah, little ups and downs. >> little ups and downs? >> but we're going nowhere. and this big company what the big stock market mostly represents. small companies have been having a hard time. we went through this, why do we

need to learn it again? >> isn't the dollar going through this con vperiod. we bottomed in march of '11, but effectively, the dollar is moving higher because we've gone through this period where you've d -- they may be on the same path while we're turning out of this. i feel the dollar has been somewhat stable, somewhat healthy, and if you look at the dollar index, looks to me like it's making a move higher and there's no fighting that. >> the dollar today is a 98-pound weakling instead of an 88-pound weakling. all you have to do is look at the price of gold, $350 -- >> look at the peers. relative to the yen, relative to the euro. >> in the 1970s, there are periods when the dollar got strong, but they're going down the tank, every major currency is relatively weak today. again, use that benchmark gold.

>> i know you're an advocate of returning back to the gold standard. backing by 100%, 30%. >> no this idea you have to have a pile of gold to have a gold standard is preposterous. all you need to do is look at the price. let's take $1,500. so goes much above $1,500, the fed tightens, much below, the fed eases, it's that simple. robert mundel said a monkey could do it. >> let me change the conversation. that's hypothetical. that's not what we're going to get whoever wins the election in two weeks time. yesterday, gary kaminsky was suggesting some of the big macro funds believe that romney if he wins will be bad for stocks and the economy. a, do you still think romney will win, i know you said before the last debate he will, and will he be good for stocks. >> ultimately he will be good for stocks, even if you don't go back on the gold standard. if you make it clear you're

going to have a stable dollar again, that will go a long way to restoring and stabilizing the markets. you start getting capital creation again, and you start getting real investment. >> can you specifically make that link to people sitting at home. why would a stronger dollar make stocks stronger? >> because you get real investment again. you'd get real capital creation again. right now you're punishing savers, right now you make an investment, five, seven-year payout, a 10-cent dollar you get 40-cent? stocks reflect future income flows. if you don't know what they're going to be valued in, you get less future investment. investment for the future. >> an honor to have you in, sir. thank you very much. steve forbes as we talk politics and the fed. we need to keep you up to date with what else is going on. the zynga conference call is underway. julia boorstin has the latest on that stock. >> the ceo saying the last few months have been challenging. this, of course, comes a day after announced layoffs of the company. he said that part of the problem

is smartphone use. zynga doesn't have as high of margins as it does on desk top. the other problem, the company did not bring enough new games to market fast enough. one surprise it sounds like "farmville 2" is on track to be one of the biggest hits in year. also talked about the potential in real money gaming. today zynga announces partnering with bwin to launch online gambling in the uk. it'll be an important test for the potential of online gambling. another bright spot, advertising where the company is investing in growth, huge success for their online video ads. and zynga's ceo discussed the $200 million stock buyback authorized by the company. and right now they're talking about the full-year projections, eps projections of 2 to 3 cents for the whole year is lighter than wall street was looking for. >> thank you. >> $2.41, anyone a buyer? >> i think this is the classic

short covering rally, no, no. it doesn't mean it can't go higher, but i think this is a stock that's headed -- >> nowhere, i'm with guy. i think, you know, their business model is strange at best and you wouldn't buy it. >> thank you very much. there are plenty of movers in the after hours action. stay with us for all the latest updates. and still to come on "fast money" tonight, toys r us ceo will unwrap his company's strategy for the holiday season. stick around on cnbc.

welcome back to "fast money." jon fortt here with news on apple and samsung. their continuing legal battle. the international trade commission has a preliminary ruling, and it's good for apple, not so good for samsung. i'll note that about a month ago, the itc had a ruling that wasn't as favorable to samsung. this ruling is favorable to apple basically on 4 out of 6 patent claims, having to do with design patents. they're saying that samsung appears to be in violation of apple's patents. now, noting here, some of the hardware that's involved, the transform, the acclaim, the epic

4g, the indulge, the intercept, in count 33 here claims one and two of the 501 patent. there are many claims here, of course, can't read them all, but this good news from apple's perspective, it seems to back up what the jury did in u.s. district court several weeks ago, a big victory, billion dollar victory for apple there that samsung is contesting. >> okay. all right, jon. thank you very much. >> on september 7th, when they got the first ruling which basically said nothing about the new products, said a lot about the, you know, yesterday's products, apple -- what i said was a near-term high at 675, went higher. you have as much good news as you can get. this is not deterring samsung, again, this is not affecting current products. i think samsung is the call and it is about hardware prices where i think apple can't compete with these guys and where they're losing market share. >> let's get to money in motion currency trading. amelia, what's shifting?

where can we make money? >> what's been shifting is currencies down under both the new zealand dollar and the australian dollar. about an hour ago, we just had the policy announcement from the reserved bank of new zealand. people thought it was going to be a dovish slant to the policy announcement because they had a new central bank governor and this was the first meeting. that did not happen and it rose quite sharply. and something similar happened overnight, with the aussie dollar, a big movement. what happened was cpi for the third quarter in australia was much stronger than expected. it came out 1.4% quarter on quarter, which is a large rise. a lot of that had to do with special factors, one of them the implication of the carbon tax. so aussie rose, but i think what's going to happen is because the cpi was boosted by special factors, it's not enough to dissuade the reserve bank of australia to cut interest rates again. i would short this move higher in the australian dollar. >> what is the trade? >> to short aussie against the u.s. dollar.

i'd enter at 1.0360, i'm putting a target down at 1.02 the figure, and the top of it at 1.0420. >> thank you, amelia. bk? >> longer term, i think the australian dollar is the one short here. you're looking at an economy that is tied to china, that china clearly -- >> green shoots. >> come on. >> the pmi employment number was contracting today in china. even if china is doing better, you're still looking at a structural change in the chinese economy. they're not going to need as many commodities. i also think the australian banks are a great short. >> okay. let's get another market flash, jackie back at hq with wynn. >> third quarter eps was $1.48, on revenue of $1.3 billion. the revenues were right in line and this is being reflected in the stock in the after-hours session up more than 4%.

eps better on improvements in las vegas, we did see a decline in the macao business. and also want to highlight that the company approved an $8 billion cash, also planning to increase the quarter dividend to $1 a share in 2013. simon? >> anyone tempted to trade? >> yeah, i'm tempted to trade. vegas was better, but occupancy rates were down. this stock has been in a pre-defined down trend since the middle of 2011. and unless we break 1.20, which i don't think is going to happen, this is another pop to sell. being around the 1.20 level, i think if you're inclined to do so, you can play wynn from the short side. >> i would agree with guy on this one. i think the macau numbers weren't that great and that's the big number here for them. i would be probably on the short side, as well. >> guy, have you heard -- >> what, huh? >> have you heard of doc

mcstuffins. >> yeah, the guy from guns and roses. no? >> oh, right. >> nice call. >> doc mcstuffins i think is a she and i think it's a cartoon on disney or something. >> very, very good. >> yes, the toys r us ceo will reveal what the hottest toy trends will be this holiday season and weigh in on how his company is planning to stay one step ahead of the rest. more "fast money" up next.

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♪ and welcome back to "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site. we have a lot of after hour action today. another stock for you. >> hey, simon, watching shares of fusion io in the after hour sessions, they are lower, missed expectations for the quarter. came in at four cents, three pennies light. revenue was in line with expectations. on the guidance, looking for flat revenues, sequentially next quarter for the full year of

2013. the company's expecting 45% to 50% revenue growth. still, though, even though that guidance seemed a bit positive, the stock down nearly 8%, simon. >> thank you very much, jackie. with two months until christmas, retailers are already pulling out all the stops to attract customers. according to a new survey released, americans will likely spend more this year, and 82% see discounts and promotions as important in their decisions on where to spend. toys r us ceo has joined us here with a look at how his company has geared up for the holiday. and you've brought friends in with you. >> absolutely. >> tell us why they're important to your profitability. >> it's called tabio, it's a toys r us tablet full of kids applications and learning applications. >> what's the price point? >> $149.99, your kids can play with them. you can get several for the price of a normal tablet and they work fantastic. also we have one direction dolls.

this is a hot boy band from the uk and girls love these dolls, they pick their favorite band member. >> you seem to like it. >> i do. >> those are from hasbro. we also have doc mcstuffins, the hottest toy in the store today. it's a disney jr. franchise and she's a little girl, her mom's a doctor, she takes care of stuffed animals, of course. >> keep it away from guy. >> 82% of people are looking for promotions and offers, where do you stand on that? >> well, we're always very aggressive at toys r us, but this year, just to make sure, we're offering price match guarantee. for the first time we'll match any competitor's price, you don't have to worry about it coming to toys r us, we know our prices are good. we're not worried about it. >> why are you prepared to do it now? >> we have more toys than anyone else, we have toys you will not find anywhere else, we have service in our store, most of our competitors are -- >> why now have you decided to

do price match that you didn't before in fairness? >> the customers are clearly value focused. i want to give them comfort they're not giving anything up, they're getting everything extra plus a great price. moreover, we've introduced free layaway this year. layaway is a phenomenon in retailing this year. and at toys r us, it's free, many competitors charge for it. you can get the product that you want right now, pay over time, pay it off by december 16th, and you've got it. it's been growing at an astounding rate. another sign that customers are looking for value and payment options and the way of doing business. >> i noticed you're doing a lot of coupons and sales, is that in response to amazon on the online? >> customers love coupons. our dot com is over 1 billion in sales. we go by 40% of the internet last quarter. 30% last year, we have what we call the omni channel solution. bricks and mortar, plus internet are going to beat internet only every day of the week. that's the long run, we'll see it.

the bricks and mortar companies are going to win with the internet in tow. >> who are you worried about? >> well, we've got more toys, we've got the best toys. >> i get it. what's interesting is, you mentioned hasbro earlier on. hasbro had a problem that the boys toys were falling down 12%. the girls sales were rocketing. and that's because they are backed by stuff that the girls are seeing in the media where arguably this year the boys toys are not. you brought the boy band in, the boy band has been very good for hasbro. and i'm fascinated that, again, you choose to put it here and pick it out. is there a difference between girls and boys this year? because transformers, for example, is not doing the business, they're not seeing the film. >> there's always a difference between boys and girls, however, the most rapidly growing is lego, they're growing at a phenomenal pace. i brought one of our big sets here from legos. epic dragon battle set. boys are buying them in droves,

maybe action figures have suffered by consequence. it's not that there aren't toys hot for boys, believe me, there are. but it's not the same they used to be. >> tim seems really attached. >> i'm all about lamby right now. >> that's what i'm here for, lamby. >> there are always hot toys and christmas comes in the toy business. >> christmas always comes in the toys business. >> i've been with toys r us six years, positive same-store sales every december, good times and bad, 2008, 2009, you know, whenever because the last thing parents cut back on is that holiday present for their children. >> there must be things that keep you up at night, though, it can't be all -- apple pie and -- >> how is that shaping up? >> it's all about making sure you have the right toys in stock in december. if you want to know what i think about at night is making sure we have the right quantities of the hottest toys in stock and we're going to own enough of them to keep our customers happy on december 24th. that's our objective.

>> who do you use for logistics software? oracle guy -- >> oracle has most of the market for software. i was vice chairman at target before coming here, they are dominant in that space. of course, we are major oracle users. >> and what is being said behind closed doors about the strength of the retail sector in general at the moment? because consumer confidence figures are very good that we're seeing despite huge concerns amongst business people on the fiscal cliff. >> well, obviously, a customer is looking for value. you mentioned coupons, you mentioned -- i mentioned layaway and the phenomenal growth there. layaway started during the great depression. the great growth we're seeing in it now is some indication that a customer's looking for a way of paying over time, a way of financing. >> good to see you, sir. >> great. >> good luck for the holiday season. brian shactman joins us now with a preview of what's up next, brian. >> underarmour, recently touched

all-time highs. they report tomorrow morning and analysts are conflicted on how to deal with the stock. we're going to bring it down so you're not conflicted when they report at 7:00 a.m. eastern time. that's when "fast money" returns. how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.

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big day tomorrow. not just apple, of course, but amazon also reporting and amazon falling ahead of that earnings report. amazon has been on a tare, of course, in 2012, surging over 32%. will the rally continue following tomorrow's big report? let's trade tomorrow. and let's trade amazon. >> well, it's actually been down sharply, $265 or so stock now trading on either side of $230. the great thing about last quarter, it all comes down to operating margins with amazon. they're razor thin. this is a tough one for me here at $230. i'd rather watch, see what they report, see what margins are before i foray into amazon. i know that's a coward's way out, but this could go $20 either way. >> margins -- >> yes, yes, yes. >> really? >> i'll tell you, if you want to trade this, that's what i'd do, i'd wait. you get it down to $216, $217,

that's also the gap from back in april or may, that's not a bad place to try to enter a trading long here on amazon if you get weak earnings and gets priced in. >> this is priced to perfection. 100 times priced earnings. and, you know, the market is punishing any copies. >> under armour reports tomorrow before the open, the stock has had a huge run, and the question is whether it's time to take a pause on that stock. brian shactman is here with some answers, brian. >> answers, that's right. thanks, simon. despite pulling back about 3.5% in the last week, the stock is up about 57% year-to-date. and i always like to go back to those march '09 lows because it's fascinating to see. through that lens, u.a. has run up 650% in 3 1/2 years. before we get into nuances, the expectations are for 52 cents a share on about 576 million in revenue. i do have to say analysts are

conflicted on where to go from here. trading off earnings is a little dicey, but in two years, you'll say and he quoted him, why didn't i buy this at 56? then there's morning star and he totally disagrees in a note earlier this week he said, quote, while we reiterate we're fans of under armour products, the valuation is at all-time highs and trailing forward earnings and it's tough to say what investors' mood will be following the announcement, we are not afraid of continuing to say the stock is overvalued. a few other stocks came up in my conversations you might want to discuss, dks is one. they have a line of camo gear. poser told me that foot locker and finish line incorporate more apparel, underarmour should benefit from that. then there's vf corp. and nike which is divesting noncore assets right now. the most interesting point. under armour is only 6% ex-u.s.

much more so in nike. long-term, perhaps a huge growth opportunity. >> excuse my ignorance, but what's camo wear? >> camo, camouflage. >> oh. >> stick to your drawings. >> mike? >> the options market was quite active. four-times the average dale little volume expecting an 8% move on the earnings coming out tomorrow. and they're targeting $52 from where it is right now. so the options market 3,000 contracts betting it's going to go lower here. >> okay. simon? i actually think a camel costume -- >> what? >> a camel costume -- >> camouflage camel, then you cover all the bases. >> i thought simon was taking the hump. >> oh. >> i like the specialty realty play, i like it here, be long. >> okay. >> and also the one direction

guys were wearing under armour, not nike, the dolls. >> were they? >> they were. okay. another name -- >> the cruise ship company will report before the opening bell. mike khouw you saw some action on this today. >> we did. it was one of the few names that saw bullish activity. we saw buyers of the november 32 calls paying about 81 cents for these things. the stock will be above by the third friday in november. i think this is a play on calls on friday. one of the few spaces where we've seen about half of the names or better coming out with positive revenue surprises where the rest of the market has been largely negative revenue surprises. >> thank you very much, mike. regular viewers or those who know the program is an hour long will realize we're coming toward the climax of the show. it's almost time for our trade of the day. when we come back, we will lift that curtain and reveal a trade that is sure to open windows and go far beyond the surface.

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here we go, it's the time, the moment you've all been waiting for, the trade of the day. simon baker? >> microsoft. i know everyone hates microsoft, but it's got a 3.5% dividend play on it, they're going to reiterate that. you could have a special dividend before year end. two to one on the upside, protection at 25, 37 on the upside. here's the reality of it, they built 10 million units already sold them. go on the website, you can't even buy one right now. i think it's very insulated in terms of a trade, 35 on the upside, and if we don't get it by christmas, sell it. >> all business. >> time for pops and drops. does everybody know their assignments? >> go. >> these are the trades you might have missed. a pop for china mobile. >> this is a stock that announced earnings and their move to data in china is increasing as subsidizing hand sets. i think this is a stock breaking out. >> big drop for netflix today,

guy. >> grim death. we said shorten at 75, today, big volume day, a lot of the shorts covered. i think you can actually get long this stock tomorrow, stop out below 55. >> and a follow through for whirlpool, still a pop. >> second day in a row, big pop here on earnings, also a couple upgrades. i'll tell you, looks like a blow-off top to me. you can short this one and use $100 as the stock. >> and the pop for rf micro. >> $209 million, this is $119 million, low expectations on this, i don't expect it to pop very long. >> and let's have a pop for mike. monster beverage, mike? >> ubs pointing out the headline risk can be a great opportunity to buy stocks instead of sell them. the options trade we talked about yesterday, 40 cents worth $4 today basically saying this headline risk impact is going to be minimal. >> and the pop for mini musicians the british group. >> what? >> mini musicians. it's striking a chord online and

drumming up a lot of attention for her musical talent. at just 7, she has already mastered the piano and the violin leading some to call her the bobby fisher of music. >> let's hope not. now the mini mozart has taken it a step further composing her own opera which she calls "the sweeper of dreams." >> bobby fisher went nuts, he went off the rails, hopefully this girl has a nice childhood and even better adulthood. >> i think that's an appropriate name for it. the sweeper of dreams. coming up next, an hour of "mad money," cramer's got one-on-one with the ceo of jarden after the company's earnings results today. tune in starting at 6:00, 4 1/2 minutes, go make your cup of tea.

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