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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  November 7, 2012 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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sue, that toss it for a very busy edition of "power lunch." >> it is going to be an interesting close today. we'll have it all covered for you. "street signs" begins right now. we do begin right now and we begin with a bam! stocks down across the board. fears of the fiscal cliff hitting nearly every group. it is the worst post-election day market since 1948. boom! another powerful storm set to slam the northeast. retailers, airlines and energy all impacted. mother nature, you're a bear! apple sliding into that territory. it is down 20% from its high. start us off with with the stats, mandy. the dow is off its session low of 369 points in the red but if it finishes with a 300-point loss, folks, it will be the first time since november 9th, 2011, ie, about a year ago. it looks like it may also finish below 13,000 for the first time since august 3rd. as for the s&p, it is looking at
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its biggest one day loss since june 21st. and the nasdaq also off its lows but still down over 2%, dragged down by apple which as we mentioned a moment ago has dipped into bear territory today by dropping 20% from its september 21st all-time high. as ugly as those are, folks, have no fear, because "street signs" is here with some smart guests and advice for your investing road map right now. it is a long road. right? we have got the financials. we have got energy and health care. we have got bonds. we've got defense. i've got the wrong order but we've got it all. don't worry. all hour long and let us start off with bob pisani who is down at the new york stock exchange. all right, bob. how much blame can we put on politics? how much on european politics? how much on apple? how much on the snurricane. >> i'll forget about the hurricane but i'll blame everything else. you got it right there, brian. put up the three reasons. they happen one, two, three. i can show them to you on the chart here.
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one, mr. draghi talked about the weakness in europe spreading to germany. number two, the presidential election affected certain groups very clearly. then apple hitting a 20% decline. you don't believe me, just take a look at the s&p 500. i'll show you how you can do this. we were at about 1,420 or so, right here is where we were about 7:15. that's when mr. draghi came out and talked about europe. then at the open right here, here's the concerns about obama and clear stoshcks around obama election dropping. then right about here we had apple coming out, suddenly hitting $568, that 20% decline. we took another leg down. good news -- why i am a little optimistic -- this is exactly the european close. we had big volume in the u.s. on the spdrs right at the european close. this suggests a large part of this decline we are seeing right here all the way down was europeans that were actually selling. the minute we hit europe, we stabilized and we actually moved
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up. we're almost 100 points off of the low on the dow. here's your stocks that are affected notably by i think clearly president obama's election. coal stocks, financial stocks, defense stocks, energy stocks, and some of the dividend payers. this is etf, dvy. apple at $564 i believe? there's $564. when apple hit that you saw the move to the downside. i think it is pretty simple explanation. one-thi one-third, one-third, and maybe one-third. >> as soon as the election's over, we'll go back to talking about europe. sew ma mowdy is at the nasdaq. tech stocks are getting real crushed. >> absolutely, mandy. down about 65 points on the nasdaq. the s&p tech index at or near correction territory. as bob was pointing out, apple is the big story. breaking some key critical levels. $564. that's the important number to watch. that's the level that apple broke that got it officially in
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bear market territory. a market technician at isi says the next support level -- $528 which could be near apple's mid-may low. but it is not just apple weighing on the tech index. we have a couple other tech heavyweights trading lower. google down 1.6%. we also have microsoft down better than 2%. also intel, a chip heavyweight, down nearly 3% hitting a 52-week low this morning. back over to you. >> seema, thank you. stocks are ugly. investors are nervous. and what do investors do when they get nervous? they buy government bonds. which is exactly what they are doing today. james kemp, managing director at eagle asset management. james, a short-term parking spot or a real move back into bonds? >> well, brian, i think a couple of things play into the trade today. we obviously i think have a very big relief rally in treasuries. one of the parts of the election that was perhaps not as well known to the public is mr. bernanke's tenure and governor romney's proposal that it
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wouldn't likely be continued past 2014. it now appears to the quantitative easing regimen that's in place with mr. bernanke goes on for quite some time. we have the mortgagely mortgage buy. we likely have an extension of operation twist in december. there's plenty of liquidity supplied to the treasury market. >> just to be clear then, you believe this could be a bernanke driven boom but the only way i'll push back on that, james, is that if that's the case, wouldn't stocks then -- i know i aren't a stocks bguy -- >> the european announcement today to us was equally problematic. european slowdown, the growth forecast coming down even further, that is going to play into the risk asset trade. we have according to the imf nearly $3 trillion worth of deleveraging that has to occur in europe. you saw that follow through in the european stock market to our equity markets. we're afraid you're going to start seeing this in non-income
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treasury market interests. asset backed securities look more attractive than high-yield risk right now. >> you see slow growth and the possibility taxes will go up, is it possible bontsdz are suggedsg a recession trade right now? >> i didn't hear the last part of the question. zpr are we seeing a recession trade in bonds right now? we're in a slow growth environment, taxes going up. >> there's absolutely going to be some more support for fixed income particularly in the municipal side. there is a recognition finally that taxes are going up. it's here. tax rates at the marginal $250,000, $500,000, whatever that is. we're seeing capital gains rates go up. we'll see dividend stocks increase in their tax rates. we're going to have a tax model that's going to favor tax for re-investing specifically high-grade intermediate municipal bonds. we're seeing that trade in earnest today. >> do you think we're going to go into a recession, point
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blank? >> i think it is a coin flip. depending upon what congress and the president can do over the first 100 days. in fact, perhaps the next 30 days, as we go into year end. markets will take a sense of that. corporations will look at their capital investment, their hiring plans. all coincident with what fiscal policy looks like and tax policy looks like. mr. bernanke has done the heavy lifting thus far and clearly post-election it's time for folks in congress and the white house to get busy on solving these very, very grave matters. >> coin flip. 50%-50% recession. the markets are in full sell-off mode. don't worry though, we have your full investing road map with some very smart folks. wells capital's jim paulson, bgig bgig's. what do you think is the main reason and what would you do with this sell-off today?
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>> i like others, mandy. i think it is a combo package. one thing to remember, we're maybe 1% below right now where we were on the open yesterday. you got to remember we had a romney rally yesterday. the idea he could get elected. part of this decline is just taking that bet we put in yesterday out. part of it is concern about the fiscal cliff. part of it certainly europe i think part of it is concern about hurricane sandy, that that will do to interpretation of upcoming economic momentum and reports. so it is a combo package. but i think before too long, i think this is more a reaction to the headline this morning and i really think within a few days we're going to be back focusing on momentum in the economy of the united states which by and large has been pretty good, on the fact that there's growing evidence that china is starting to reemerge and may emerge and the world is starting to bounce. europe, despite the concerns today, is still much calmer in recent weeks than it's been for a long time. that krtrio package is what's
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ultimately going to drive the market, i think. i think people looking at that are going to want to come back into this market so i would be a buyer on this knee-jerk reaction. >> what would you be buying? which sector specifically, jim? >> i like the emerging markets. i think that's the big story for next year, emerging world bounces, emerging markets lead. in this country i'd buy manufacturing stocks. if the emerging world picks up, global manufacturing does so industrials and materials. those areas i think look the most attractive. >> dan, give us a reason to be optimistic, buddy. >> to be optimistic? >> why not. >> that's jim's job. i'm here representing the reality base camp which basically means -- that came out wrong. i basically mean the fiscal cliff is a real problem and i agree with a lot of what jim had to say about china sort of bottoming or showing signs of stabilization, about the u.s. looking good on a relative basis. about let's be clear. i know jim agrees with this. the fiscal cliff is a major problem. our base case scenario now is that we go over the cliff. >> that's your base -- let me
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highlight that. that is your base case scenario now. so if we get a fix, that would be a cherry on top. that would be your good news. >> certainly. but let's remember two things. the first of which is a lot of people look at the cliff purely through an intelligence spectrum. what i mean by that is clients are fond to say -- fond of safing they're not that dumb to let this happen and i often argue, well, no, i think they might be that dumb. but from a legislative standpoint, there is a lot of reasons to think that going over the cliff, whether for one day or three weeks, works to washington's advantage. and i don't think at least the people that i've been meeting with fully factor in the benefits that are provided to many in washington if that cliff actually happens. >> do you think the sell-off we're seeing today is partly maybe the markets starting to factor in the going off the fiscal cliff, and any kind of noise about a compromise or a patch, even if just kicking down the road, could see a significant rally? >> well, i mean, listen. a patch is better than what we're looking at now.
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but i mean again, we saw last night from the president. we've seen recently from john boehner and certainly from harry reid this morning. these guys might as well be on other planets about how to solve the medium term debt and deficit problem in the united states. i don't see now, yesterday, tomorrow how they're going to solve this in a month. again, the most important point here -- and i can't overstate this enough -- the president campaigned on a single issue of raising taxes, the top marginal tax rate. he literally didn't talk about anything else. he gets to go to john boehner and say i campaigned on raising taxes and won. >> but keith, do they need to solve it in four weeks? because yield can be kicked down the road. what about a patch? >> the problem is, of course, both cases changed like how many times, brian, throughout the year? growth is back, earnings are fine and stocks are cheap. fiscal cliff was never an issue and we weren't even talking
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about china in march. now growth has slowed globally. maybe materially so. earnings are a disaster and stocks aren't cheap if you're using the right numbers. so now the bulk catalyst is the fiscal cliff. i think investors in particular you could see in fund flows, there are no fund flows. there are equity outflows. there are fund flows to investment grade bonds. they're fund flows to the dollar today. there's fund flows to safety because people don't trust this, they don't trust the obama administration is going to deliver anything above 1% to 1.5% growth. >> what are the right numbers then? >> what's the right number for -- for example, you can be using nine times the number that's wrong by 40%. now you are paying 15 times the wrong number. i think really the big problem in the last five years is that this story telling can only run the market so far and so fast. the market is not the economy.
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eventually the federal reserve and really the fiscal construct that's tim geithner's team cannot suspend economic gravity or suspend the earnings cycle that is in corporate america. don't forget we are at a 120-year peak in corporate earnings margin. the downside in the earnings numbers could be material if growth misses because margins could start to come down which nobody's had to deal with really for five years. >> indeed. keith, dan, jim, thank you very much. jim, you stick around. plenty more to talk about because it is getting ugly out there. another big storm taking aim at the northeast. meteorologist todd gross is here. todd, take us through the timeline. >> okay. it is all happening actually in the next few hours right now. the problem? storm center. it is actually a nor'easter that's located about 200 miles to the southeast of new york city and it is pulling down cold air. so everything that you're looking at in white right here on the radar in the form of snow and in green in the form of rain. let's check out how this is going to pan out in terms of the
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problems that it produces, the actual difficulties that we're going to see. first of all, we're going to see snow. that's a given in the new york metro area, especially to the north and west of the city. secondly, coastal flooding up near boston and down towards cape cod where there will also be big winds to 65 miles an hour. that's going to be a problem. but let's talk about that snow for a minute. if you take a look right outside our own studios here at cnbc, you are actually going to see that there are leaves still on the trees. as the snow flies and eventually the temperature drops to freezing and below, it's this kind of scene that is the major issue, meaning we are going to see those tree limbs coming down as they fill up with a few inches of wet snow. thus, the economic impact could be very considerable. from additional power outages to the same exact spot that's just recovering right now. so that's what we'll be watching throughout the afternoon. again, it does appear several inches of snow anywhere to the
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north and west of new york city, even up into southern new england. we'll be with you throughout the day into this evening watching the nor'easter. >> todd, thank you very much. on deck, a complete sector by sector rundown of the downturn in a way that only "street signs" can. let's take a quick look at the markets at this stage, all ten sectors of the s&p are in the red. we have come back a little bit though. we're back at 1,400 which is a psychological level for the s&p 500. the dow and nasdaq are also off their lows,down now down by 259. don't go away. today, it's not t who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, and the home office as well. because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life. ♪
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with the exception of a couple of gold mining stocks, nearly everything is down today. concerns about the fiscal cliff putting pressure on defense names going over it would, of course, triggermaner to cuts in defense spending. northrup grummond, raytheon, lockheed martin, general dynamics, all lower. we know the president has been tough on wall street. but now wall street is going to have to deal with the very tough elizabeth warren in the senate. but are investors overreacting? jim paulson is still with us, matt mccormick, a bank analyst. jim, overreaction on the financials? >> i think so. the point i'd like to make about the fiscal cliff is that i think congress, the president, everyone, investors included, should step back and realize in the last two years, last few years of gridlock, how much the fiscal issues in this country have improved.
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yes, improved. we had a 10.4% deficit at the worst. the last 12 months deficit, percent of gdp today is 6.9%. a 3.5% improvement in the deficit even though we've only grown a little over 2% in this period of time. if we can continue to grow even modestly, that deficit will go from 6.9%, maybe get a five handle or four handle and the debt to gdp ratio in this country could peak out and start to fall. we don't have to do anything. we don't need a grand bargain. we don't need major fiscal legislation. we just need a continuation, not even of fast, but just persistent growth. i think clinton gave the best example of this. his fiscal issues went away and ended up in surplus simply because had he a ten-year expansion. rather than have a knee-jerk reaction that we need to do this before the end of the year, think we should all take a breather and let things play out because the markets kind of
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correct. >> you're the eternal optimist. let's take off the rose colored glasses for a second. matt, is this just a overreaction or is there real reason to sell off financials now especially with elizabeth warren in the mix. >> elections have consequences, mandy. this is the cold, hard economic reality of the president's plans. not only do have you elizabeth warren, richard krocorde. dod frank will now be implemented. there was a hope with romney it would not. only one-third of the regulations have been put in place. nobody believes the next two-thirds of the regulations will be helpful to banks and financials. i look at the economy going forward. i see no real catalyst for organic growth. i think the money center of banks have had a good run year to date. i suggest people take profits. i suggest people be conservative in their investments, not aggressive. i think we are in a grind it out economy much like the 1970s. i want to focus on needs, not wants, companies that have bulletproof balance sheets that pay you to own them.
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i think it is better to be conservative versus aggressive. >> like what? big selloffs in the names like bank of america, jpmorgan today. anything out there worth picking up? >> if you're looking at financials, select regional banks. they're not down as much. a lot of the money center banks are down 6%, 7%. the canadian banks are down between 1% and 2%. companies like j&j and intel are not down as much. i think this is something that i would look at companies that protect you on the downside and pay you and have more income oriented. downside protection is what's going to be sought out by investors going forward. >> so, jim, downside protection. obviously there is a lot of complex option strategies and all this other stuff. what account average investor do to protect his or herself? >> i think that there's been too much focus on my view for three years about downside protection, brian. look what's happened. the discussion we're having today about the end of the world coming is the same discussion we've had for three years. the market is more than doubled
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and it's still only a 14 times trailing 12 month earnings. maybe 13.5 or 13.25 times future. competitive interest rate is 1.6% right now, the 10-year. we have more pieces of the economy working than we've ever had. bank, lending, housing, home prices, confidence, the stock market. i mean i think that banks may face a tougher regulatory environment in the future but they're also enjoying the best lending of the entire recovery, the best housing activity, the best retail sales of the entire recovery. you can't just look at one side of this argument. there's a lot of other good things going on. including the emerging world picking up again. so i would say the wrong thing to do would be to go to safe haven assets to go put yourself in bonds, for example, which i think could get hit real hard, or high-dividend paying stocks at the expense of all others. i think the best thing to do is stay diversified. i would pick away at cyclical
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areas in these panicky sell-off days. >> jim, i love the calm midwestern voice of reason. that's why we have you on. >> it's fine. >> everything's fine. >> okay, thank you, gentlemen. it is a tale of two sectors. one is getting slammed. the other one is soaring on the back of president obama's victory. we reveal them, the big reveal -- next. bob...
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oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign.
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health insurers are down following president obama's victory, which paves the way for his health care law to go into effect as planned. united health, aetna, humana and wellpoint all lower on concerns about obama care's limits on profits and mandates on coverage. on the flip side though, the clearer path towards enacting obama care lifting hospital stocks in today's massive sell-off. we're talking about names like health management, community health, hca holdings, tenet health care. these companies costs for paying for services for the core are expected to drop over time. managing director and co-head of research at crt capital group joins us. cheryl, you follow these hospital stocks. you've talked about them before on the show. is this just the beginning or could things change? >> well, i think we're going to enjoy a period of euphoria, ul
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actually, as we understand that the hospital companies finally do have some clarity, that the reform is almost certain. not 100% certain but almost certain to go through. i think that what we're seeing today is the correct reflection, unlike when the supreme court decision was made it was a little bit too early and a little bit too much exuberance. today we're seeing the correct perception trade going on which is that the power of paying for no-pay heads in the beds, of finally getting cash flows is so significant, that it even overwhelms some of the most draconian cuts we can conceive of as a solution to our deficit and fiscal cliff crises. >> that's really been the basic. right? that's putting aside the politics of it. what i just want to understand, cheryl, is very simple. all right? everybody said we need obama care because you got to go after the mean health insurers an mean hospital companies that just want to screw everybody all the time out of money. why they up? just because now everybody's
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going to get paid for everybody? no more 30% drop in no-pays? >> well, yes. they're going to -- they're up because they're finally going to get paid for being the insurer of last resort. let me just back up a little bit. it was the mean hmos, not so much the mean hospitals. it was the poor underpaid, disadvantaged hospitals who are going to go out of business and close their doors if they didn't get health reform, who were advantaged by health reform. and of course, they were asked to pay for it so they've had cuts before coverage which is why we're also happy and excited that they're finally going to get some cash flow in for services for which -- >> who's going to pay that cash flow? >> well, that's going to come from the premiums that are either paid by the individuals, subsidized by the federal government, the medicaid programs, but this is the law of the land. this is the way it works. and it's what the nation obviously decided is okay as mr. obama is president. >> what's going to happen with the fiscal cliff and with the
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stocks soernted with that? bottom line it for us in terms of investors at home, what do they do? >> well, for right now i wouldn't rush out and buy hospital stock. don't like to buy them up on spikes like this. i want to let the market get conditioned to the fact that we are actually going to see hospital companies facing very significant headline risk if not actual risk of perhaps draconian cuts and they're going to have to work through that. what i would do is, if you don't own a hospital stock today, i'm not sure i would buy one. i would wait for the euphoria to end to pick my points. but i would begin to look at some of the better positioned health plan stocks like united health group who i think has positioned itself for whatever happens to make money. they are very, very good at making money. >> somehow i think they're going to make money in any environment. just my cynical 16-year financial journalist point of view is that they're going to make money. >> they're really good at it. >> yeah, they're really good at it. thank you, cheryl. i was a little bit snarky. i apologize. >> was that snark in.
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>> this weather's got me down. even more stocks are buck being the sell-off. have no fear, we found them. we literally dug them out of the hole. we'll show you the names that are in the green coming up next. back in two. dow still down below 13,000 off by nearly 2%. you know, one job or the other. the moment i could access the retirement plan, i just became firm about it -- "i'm done. i'm out of here." you know, it's like it just hits you fast. you know, you start thinking about what's really important here. ♪ ♪ ♪ customer erin swenson bought so, i'm happy. today. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home? (together) she won't be happy. use ups! she can get a text alert, reroute... even reschedule her package.
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we're ticking things off here in the markets. we've ticked off the election ppelections. rallies are going on in athens right now crippling the streets as mps are debating austerity. dow is off its lows of the day, still down by 275 points and below the psychological 13,000 mark. >> isn't that amazing, it is our biggest post-election day drop since 1948. >> yep. >> truman. dewey defeats truman. >> let's get on to street talk. hitting the stock stories you need to know about. first up, it's not really a stock. it is an etf but nonetheless it is something that we need to watch today. up by 7%. >> the reason i threw it in here is because there is a lot of interest around this name. direxion. this etf heavily weighted to tech, 22% of this is tech.
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financials at 14%. basically you buy this, are you betting things are going to go down in small caps. be careful, folks. as herb greenberg's warned you about many times, these ultra levered things, can you make money short term but you can also lose money quickly. that thing is still down 38% year to date. a lot of things are getting smacked by a 27% sell-off i think is really getting smacked. >> getting hit in the solar -- >> plexus. >> bing. it sees sales to juniper selling off. juniper told plexus and the ceo saying i thought we had a good veelgsshi relationship. we usually bash analysts, deutsche bank downgraded the stock a few weeks ago. looks like a pretty doggone good
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call. >> this next game is boyd gaming. >> in news on boyd today but i threw it in here for this reason. lost in all the election was a bill in maryland that passed that allows full casino gambling. they're going to be opening up full casinos, big boy casinos, probably in the inner harbor. boyd co-owns casinos. i'm just throwing boyd out there. it's had terrible numbers, too. but watch that. full casino gaming coming to maryland. interesting. >> you can't have too many casinos. >> you know what the number one state sport is? jousting. that's true. >> are we going to do some up stocks? we all need some up stocks. this is one of herb's favorite stocks. >> please note our continued
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sarcasm. herb's been all over this name. is that correc this stock up 21%. a judge in texas ordering virnetx to be paid by apple $368 million. the judge said, yeah, apple infringed on four patents that virnetx holds. they're one of these companies that buys patent. apple declined comment but is expected to appeal. watch virnetx. buckle is also moving today to the upside. we all like a little payoff. they are declaring a dividend. >> we had to show some green. retailer issuing a special one-time dividend of $4.50 a share. that's the second time the buckle has done this. they did a $2.25 dividend in october of 2011. buckle up 2% today. >> generosity on the part of buckle. what key levels should we be
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looking for in this sell-off? we thought we'd look at what's happening from the technical perspective as well as the fundamental. randy frederick, director of derivatives and trading at charles schwab. we've already broken psychological and technical levels today. what do we go from here? is. >> we have. 1,400 is a key psychological level. the last couple hours, the s&p 500 has been pivoting right around that number all day. if you're a technical trader that's one you're going to keep an eye on. if it closes above that, we could have some bullish move for tomorrow. if it closes below, unfortunately as a technical trader that's not a very good sign. >> nonetheless, you are bullish. right? you've got 1,500 still as your s&p year-end target. why do the charts tell that you? >> 1,500 is definitely what i mentioned yesterday. i thought we might have a little bit of a relief rally with the election. but, unfortunately, the amount of time between when the election results were done and the refocus on to the fiscal cliff, refocus on what what's going on in europe, there was basically no time at all.
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we've had some weakness today. i still think it is a possible target but it is going to be a lot tougher to get there now. technical traders watch 1,434. thaechs that's 29the 200-day moving average. 1,380 is the other one. >> no offense, randy. what if you're wrong? what if we breach 1,380 to the downside? what's next? >> then i don't know. that's the tough part. you got to keep an eye on it. >> i was looking at it before this segment. looks like kind after big gaping hope technically. >> there really is a lot of room below that. look at the fiscal cliff issue. you've got potential increases in capital gains taxes. you've got increases in dividend taxes. potential tax rates that are going to change. how all those things play out are other things traders are going to be looking at. traders are mostly focused on here to the end of the year and all those issues will come up. may not and lot going on between now and thanksgiving but there is a one-month period where
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there is a lot of activity going on. whether or not they solve those issues i think is a tough question. we'll probably get some sort of reprieve to push them out a little bit into the next year. >> before i let you go, the most important question of the day, i'll be in austin the first time on friday. what's the best barbecue? >> two. salt lick and rudy's. i'd recommend both. if you have two nights, try them both. >> that's a really important question. thanks a lot for that, brian. >> i like to eat. markets go down, markets go up. you still got to eat, right? next, we are tracking the energy sell-off. oil hitting a new four-month low going into the close here. big oil stock really getting hammered. later on, who knew bears liked apples? the stock down 20% from its high. do you buy now or hibernate? tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about low-cost investing.
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didn't exactly do well in this election. we'll look at whether that's a symptom of class warfare among voters. all that and more when maria and i see you at the top of the hour. john boehner getting ready to speak about the fiscal cliff and the testy negotiations that will be part of. we'll bring that to you live at 3:30 eastern time. we'll see you at the top of the hour for what's going to be a rather unpredictable last hour. meantime, oil and gas prices falling off their own cliff today. maybe a fiscal cliff. sharon epperson has the final trades from the my next for us. >> that's one of the factors, brian, certainly a lot of traders very concerned about the fiscal cliff and of course what that means for the growth scenario for industrial commodities including oil and energy. we're also looking at the worries about europe that started this slide across the board in many asset classes. then you add to that some fundamental data, the fact that we saw a build across the board in crude supplies as well as gasoline and distillate fuel
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supplies. u.s. crude supplies are 11% above where they were a year ago and domestic production for crude oil that we're looking at that is 13% above where we were a year ago. the oil supply situation is definitely pressuring prices. we're looking at gasoline prices that are also coming down sharply. another 4% slide here in the market should mean lower retail prices in the rbob market. we could see prices below where they were a year ago at the pump by thanksgiving. not a lot of comfort to new jersey and new york residents but nationally they keep coming down. >> sharon, thank you very much. take care today. today's drop in oil and gas prices slamming the big oil stocks as well. exxon-mobil, chevron, apache, bp and many more all down. that romney bump you remember for coal stocks? yeah. that is a distant memory. coal stocks all tanking. more on the energy soak tore
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with the senior vp and energy analyst at raymond james. pavel, your general comment about the trade in energy today first please, sir. >> sure. this is a status quo election, and as is the case with a lot of things in washington, stat cuss quo is what we're going to get. in other words, it is much more useful to talk about things that will not happen than the things that will happen, because what we've had is gridlock. for example, there will not be carbon trading passed in congress any time soon. that will of course be a relief to the coal industry, to refiners, other high-carbon intensity companies. on the other hand, there will not be, for example, drilling off the coast of florida or the coast of virginia any time soon. not soo much becau much because election, but simply after the mccondo oil spill, that's not in the cards. >> let's boil this down in terms of which stocks will win and which stocks will lose in the energy patch.
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pavel? >> so, in the context of gridlock, as i mentioned, there are things that we can look to for historical precedent. i mean clearly the obama administration has not been a big fan of the coal industry and the epa has put in, for example, max regulations on coal, power plant emissions have been regulated. high-sulfur coal in particular is affected by this. arch coal which produces in the central appalachian basin would of course be affected by that. but again, none of this was new. it was pending long before the election. it will not go away but these are not things that are suddenly going to be new for the industry. >> when you say none of this is new, we're seeing arch coal and other coal names being flattened today, are you saying that all bad news as it speaks right now is factored in? >> well, i think it is adequately factored in.
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you alluded to the fact that some of the stocks did rally ahead of the election results. perhaps anticipating a romney victory. obviously that's being reversed today. but again, as far as the policies themselves, none of this is going to be introduced tomorrow or next month. the epa has been on the record for, again, power plant emissions rules and so on for months, if not years, in some cases. now on the flip side of course, obama has been a pro renewable energy president. a lot of people in the renewable sector will tell you he has disappointed in how little his administration has done. but obviously -- >> well, they spent some money on it, pavel. solyndra comes to mind. evergreen solar comes to mind. right? >> well certainly solyndra got some federal money. those things i can tell you will not happen again, simply because the loan guarantee program that
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funded these loans with the energy department, that's long gone. that's not up for any kind of renewal. but certainly -- look. renewable fuels, kior is a company that comes to mind. that's going to be a winner from the renewable fuel standard. which for the record, both romney and obama were in favor of. some of the solar stocks perhaps can benefit. but like i said, one of the biggest things that these industries would love to see is carbon trading or a national renewable electricity mandate, you know, like what europe has. that's not in the cards. >> not in the cards. >> not in the cards. the house stayed republican. by the way, even in 2009 when the democrats had the house and 60 seats in the senate, even then they could not get this stuff passed. which is why i'm saying gridlock central for the next two years, if not longer. >> makes it difficult to make sweeping policy changes. thank you very much, pavel. a "market flash" now with
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courtney reagan. >> i want to continue the conversation we're having with pavel. shares of peabody energy, the biggest loser in the s&p 500 today. we know that mitt romney was a fan of some of these coal producing companies. but we know now that history is different. obama will lead us into the next four years. you can see now shares almost 10%, twice normal volume. brian? >> courtney, thank you. apple leading today's tech wreck. is this though just a temporary road bump for apple or a sign, a real sign, that the giant is finally running out of steam?
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what you're seeing here is a live picture over new york from top of the rock. white out. complete white out, folks. look at that. sleet, snow, rain. >> didn't this stuff go away? after typewriters, people were sniffing it and stuff. >> aye, aye, aye. let's take a look. we have a post-election tech wreck. hp, microsoft, google, and apple. it's been on a steady slide from its all-time highs hit back on september the 21st. it is now, guys, officially in
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bear market territory. i.e., down about 20% from the record high levels. let's bring in our apple analyst. also, brian marshall. gentlemen, great to have you on the show. brian, what do you make of this? what would you do? >> well, mandy, i think if you look at it, it's been pretty smooth sailing for basically the first three quarters of the year for apple stock. obviously, this last quarter to close out the year is going to be a tough one. stock down 20% from recent highs. i think technically it's going to be bumpy sledding for the next couple months. people probably sell apple with respect to capital gains tax changes that will be coming forward. in the near term, it's going to be bumpy, but it doesn't change the fact the fundamentals remain fantastic. >> you think it's going to be a bit of a bumpy ride and the capital gains tax issue? you would really buy it? >> i would. with the outlook of longer than a month or two, i think if you think about it, the stock is
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still up multiples in the s&p 500. it's been the case for the last couple years. i think, you know, this recent 20% pullback, while obviously painful for many, still tremendous gains out there for people with respect to apple. so i think the numbers are going to be going higher over the next couple quarters. stocks have entered a 180-day period of enlightenment. >> all that aside, why would i own this stock, brian, if i believe capital gains rates and taxes are going to go higher? wouldn't i dump it? this is going to whack me if the president does get his way. >> in the near time, you know, the stock is probably headed lower. our technical analyst indicated he thinks near-term support level is $525. we think you're going to make more than that $25 down tick if he's right, based on the numbers that are going to move higher. we think that this basically reverts course at the start of
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next year. so that's the view here. >> do you know how hard it is to find an apple bear? i mean, brian, you're saying price tag of $710 and rob, you've got $775. you're even more bullish than brian. >> yeah, brian is sounding like a bear to me. i would take advantage of it and buy the stock now. i know it sounds easy for me to say, hey, buy the stock, but if i look across my coverage group, if i look across any technology, it's really you have to find a company growing organically at all. yet, here's apple still growing over 20% a year. purely organically. i think with that kind of growth and with really, you know, decent valuation where the stock is, i see really no reason not to hold it now, you know, looking into a really strong fourth quarter. >> what's going to be so strong about it, rob? what are you seeing that makes it look so good? >> i think the demand for, you know -- go into an apple store.
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demand for the iphone 5 is extremely strong. the only real risk there is their ability to make enough. but i feel like that's a good problem to have. better than most companies who their problem is finding the demand. for apple, it's finding the supply. i think ipads are going to be very strong, ipad mini. i think the new mac refreshes will be solid. i look across their entire portfolio, and i think they're going to have a really strong holiday quarter. i think what they can't make this quarter they'll make in the march quarter. >> rob, brian, thank you very much. a quick break. on the other side, we're going to break down this market selloff. is anyone bucking the trend? [ rosa ] i'm rosa and i quit smoking with chantix. when the doctor told me that i could smoke for the first week... i'm like...yeah, ok... little did i know
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let's look at what's been happening with gold. gold itself is up. the i-shares gold trust is higher. gold hasn't been acting like a safe haven of late, right? here's the thing. obama's in again. likelihood of a continuation of qe could be pushing that up. >> that's what you're looking at. i'm looking at bank of america. worst performer in the dow right now. okay, listen. tougher financial regulation, maybe, maybe not. elizabeth warren in the senate. we know how tough she's been. >> big consumer advocate. >> she can be tougher. will there be lawsuits against countrywide? will there be more litigation? bank of america getting crushed. that's a stock to watch. >> thank you so much for watching. we're currently very much in the red with the dow down by 2%. >> keep it here

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