thereabouts for the day. >> if you had had doubts that the investor cares about the fiscal cliff there it is. >> it is all in the picture there. >> thanks so much for watching. >> "fast money" starts right now. united we stand, divided then stocks fall. >> senate majority leader harry reid said there has been little progress made recently in the fiscal cliff talk and is disappointed with the little progress made. >> and there couldn't be more at stake. >> what is going to happen to create a credible plan that causes the corporate sector to sustain what we are seeing with the consumer. >> maybe we all need a little perspective. >> we buy stocks almost every day. but i'm confident about the american economy over the decades to come. we will have ups and downs and i can't predict them but america is a winner. >> fiscal cliff and what it

means for your money on "fast money" right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. special dividends are coming fast and furious. why apple might offer a fast payback. will the market be naughty or nice to investors. chart breaks down the technicals. forget stores and waiting in line. we are breaking down the best ways to play it. grid lock in washington dragging on stocks again today. let's go with the latest on fiscal cliff talks on capitol hill. >> let me give you a sense of what the impact was from the fiscal cliff talks here in washington. just after 2:00 when the senate majority leader came to talk to reporters about progress in the talks take a look at this s&p chart and you see that the market drops right as harry reid

speaks. talking about that lack of progress. let me tell you exactly what he said and why i think the market got it a little bit wrong today. here is harry reid's comment that the market was reacting to. >> there has been little progress with the republicans which is a disappointment to me. they talked happy talk about doing revenues but we only have a couple of weeks to get something done. we have to get away from the happy talk and start talking about specific things. >> my take on this is that the market heard the senate majority leader saying there is little progress up here but what he was really saying is there is little progress with the republicans. he wants more concessions from the republican side. what is happening here is really a negotiation between two sides. the democrats saying they want more for the republicans. we have heard from the republicans saying they want more from the democrats. you are going to continue to hear this kind of thing until we

get to the deal making. i think the market may be sold off here a little bit prematurely on the harry reid comment. it didn't mean anything other than negotiations are happening. >> you have to take a look at the other side. and mitch mcconnell is quoting as saying democrats are not turning off the campaign which implies they are sticking to the party lines not willing to compromise which gives the markets a picture of just -- >> it is the same that we have had for over a year and the same we will have until we get a deal. what mitch mcconnell was saying moments after harry reid spoke is he doesn't like the fact that the president is going to pennsylvania to do a campaign style speech about the fiscal cliff to try to rally people to his way of thinking. he thinks that is sorlt of a permanent campaign but the white house thinks they will put

political pressure on public pressure on republicans to get to the deal because they think they have the more popular side of the argument. what we are seeing is this negotiation going on. we are going to keep seeing that so people shouldn't necessarily start to freak out. >> obama is going to a toy factory, correct, tomorrow? a toy factory during the holiday shopping season ahead of christmas. >> tomorrow he will be meeting with ceos including goldman sachs and some will meet with the president in person. the president is making the case that he is meeting with every constituency out there. >> thanks for that wrap up. do you think his assessment is right that the markets freaked out? >> i think in general if your catalyst is the u.s. government you should be generally freaking out. free market is not one that hangs on every whim and word of

harry reid. at the end of the day there are multiple factors at work here. china hit a new low. we will talk about these things but i think it is multiple factors a at work beyond what somebody in washington says. >> this reminds me of when we had the european crisis or in 2008 when there was the vote on the tarp. i don't think we should overreact to this. if i learned anything from schoolhouse rock making a bill is like sausage making. you will have imaginations going on. >> i don't think they made that comparison on school house rock. >> he was watching a different schoolhouse rock. >> the jack black "schoolhouse rock." >> the fiscal cliff is just a great headline but the tip of the iceberg of what is really ailing or what could potentially

ail this market in weeks to come. we are within the whisper of a four-year high. europe is a mess and the data in the states has been mediocre at best. the fiscal cliff is an easy thing to point the finger at. >> there is a silver lining. if there is a silver lining it is this that a lot of companies are actually paying special dividends. christmas is coming early for share holders out there. special dividends do seem to be the rage. companies left and right are paying cash before possible tax hikes. dillards the latest this month. and apple could be the next company to pay back share holders in a big way. does this make sense? apple has enough cash to do so. >> they have way, way, way more than enough cash to do so. it is reckless that they don't. it is terrible capital allocation.

they like to say they are being disciplined with their balance sheet. they have tons of cash. 120 billion give or take. let's say a third of that is on shore cash available to pay a dividend. it is ridiculous that they don't get value in the market. and now to say to share holders if you deon't get a dividend we don't care that your tax rate will go up. it is ridiculous that any company should pay a dividend. i really hope they do the right thing. >> this is going to sound mocky. given the decline since highs if apple said we are going to initiate a special dividend to pay share holders of record as of whatever date i'm sure a lot of people would be interested in buying back the shares. because you are saying apple i'm going to get a special dividend. >> look at las vegas sands.

the stock was down and then bang right back up. it is obvious anybody who owns anything wants a special divs. >> plus it sends a message to share holders that we care about share holder value. i don't think it is terrible. let's bring in a guest who actually thinks apple could pay a special dividend. larry mcdonald is author of "colossal failure." good to see you. >> good to see you. >> why was apple on your list? you had a list of companies who you think will pay a special dividend. >> i'm not a stock analyst. i look to companies that have a lot of cash, companies that have heavy insider ownership and with massive stock outperformance. and apple is on that list. lvs is up 15% from the lows.

the s&p up nowhere near that much. dell is on the list. oracle is on the list. a lot of stocks are performing very well versus the s&p. >> there is some research out i think last week saying that tax changes don't incent companies to change the way they pay dividends or payouts. tax changes have also in the past not let investors to change the way they invest in stocks ie selling dividend and paying stocks. would you agree with that or no? >> i would in the sense that i think you fade this. in other words, all of the stocks that rally and when the dividends are called i think you fade it because the stocks will go back to their natural condition. and i think more so if you look at the fiscal cliff i think what you are going to look at over the next two or threes weeks in the negotiations is means testing on divs, means testing on social securities and medicare and this means testing rage that is part of the

negotiations that people are going to really start to look at. >> in your entire career can you remember a time when the entire market day really hangs on the government? what the government is going to do taxes, spending, policy? is there an end to it? do you see anything in terms of resolve? >> you have been saying this. it is scary because every month it seems like the markets hang on whether it be european risks or u.s. risks. the one good thing i can say about the market now is if you look at the last five selloffs more than 3% of the s&p over the last two or three years. my risk indicators have been much higher, in other words, systemic risk indicators. the european systemic risk is much lower this time. back in june if you looked at investment grade bonds in europe versus the united states they were massively under performing. financials like the big banks in the united states in june when we were down 10% massively under

performing. now the financial, the big banks is holding off quite well. it is a sign of less systemic risks. >> give us what you are telling clients about whether or not a deal is going to be reached and what form of that will be reached. >> i have been on the phone with clients. i would say one kind of interesting part of the negotiations is i don't think the gop caucus is going to really think they have a deal, a good deal until december 20. in other words, i think the way it will play out is you are going to have -- they are going to try to get a lot done so when they do go to the white house that obama and boehner have a good framework agreed to. and then there is a -- two weeks of negotiations. and then there will be a week between obama and boehner where they hammer up. and then a week where they take

it back to the house representatives man by man and get the votes. as you saw in the movie lincoln it is a painful process. >> sounds like do you think we will watch it being made? we will have the headlines every single day. they talked about the first bill failed and then we got the tarp two weeks later. >> thanks for stopping by. larry mcdonald. let's head back to head quarters. big earnings after the close. fourth quarter 64 cents a share. in terms of guidance the company said to expect 62 to 67 cents.

that includes 6 cents of intangibles. they are looking for a total net sales growth of 14% to 18% year over year. gmcr reiterated its 2013 outlook. the streets definitely liked these numbers up 23%. >> green mountain. the options market was pricing it at plus or minus 20% move essentially. >> this is i guess, the quarter was great. it really was. >> and the outlook was good, too. a lot is a classic short kweez. 42% or so. this can continue for a couple more days. the valuations aren't stretched eenough. i don't think it should have had the interest it had in the first place. >> by the way herb greenberg will give us the headlines as they come across. yahoo may be creeping higher

quietly. we'll tell you what to do with the stock now. retailers made a killing on black friday and cyberer monday. is there bigger of a shopping day still on tap this shopping season. why shopping on the go can bring a big game changer in the month of december. at merrill lynch, we understand the importance of your goals. today, our financial advisors lead from a new position of strength. together with bank of america, they have access to more resources than ever before.

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some of the "fast money" traders saw it coming. a risk reward for a trade. looking for 20 bucks on the upside. i like yahoo here. >> going from 14.5 and now it is

16 and change. >> i think there is a floor under yahoo here. >> i think you are still all right buying the stock. >> yahoo is up 26% since the first call. what do you do? >> it is a little more difficult here. i still think the trade sets up on the long side. if you look it is interesting. yahoo is rallying on good tapes, bad tapes. i think the stock wants to go higher. can you have a day where it trades back down? i think it will trade with a 20 handle. so i'd say with yahoo here. >> tomorrow apparently the ceo is going to give her first interview since taking over the ceo job at a fortune conference. that is something to watch for tomorrow. do you still think there is a floor in the stock? >> i do but i think it is closer to 15 than 19. at these levels i would definitely be taking a profit. it's been a moon shot over the

last month or so. >> let's hit another. research in motion closed lower today. the stock has been jumping nearly 54% over the past two months. is a pullback a buying opportunity. what are the options traders seeing? >> yesterday we blogged about the upside bull call buying in rim. institutional people are out there taking a shot to the upside. they are only using calls. i wouldn't really jump in here. i think buying a call is the right way to pay to the upside. it is dangerous to jump in as an investor especially talking about a company that is so far beaten down from its premises. it is surrounding the bb 10 operating system. if you think it is success then buy an upside call. >> it is amazing how whipped the stock gets by analysts research. last week it was some

canadian -- no offense, canadian bank pounding the table and then yesterday it was morgan stanley saying we can't value this company. it is difficult. >> 23% short interest literally someone saying boo is going to move the stock. if you look at the tail risk in the stock i think it needs to close above 13. >> the move we saw the last couple of days is exactly a 50% retracement of the range of the year effectively. a lot of people got taken out of the name. look at the volume over the last couple of days. i think it probably moves. >> the market share numbers continue to decline loss to apple. the mobile revolution is here as more consumers shop wirelessly. mobile payments jumped nearly 200% from last year. the most used mobile device for shopping yesterday, the ipad.

according to data from expeer yn target, amazon and wal-mart had the most cyber monday searches. what can we expect from the mobile consumer in the 27 days left until christmas. adobe has the own index that tracks online shopping traffic. great to have you with us. what are you modeling and what are you expecting? >> we have aggregated data across 23 of the top 25. what we found is yesterday and black friday really the entire weekend was a water shed moment for retailers. i think that a few trends jumped out with $2 billion in online revenue just yesterday. really driven by mobile. >> do you think this is going to be a pull forward? mobile sales increased on cyber monday. is that just pulling forward sales that would have taken place over the next couple of weeks on mobile? >> we don't think so. yesterday let's take cyber

monday. one in four dollars spent online were spent via mobile devices. retailers embrace that i think will be in best position to continue that performance. >> in your research and in your reports you talked about 77% of the referrals came from facebook and twitter. we talk about being able to monetize mobile. is this something that they will be a able to monetize? >> i think if you look at social in particular the 77% number is of the social referal traffic, twitter and facebook represented 77%. if you look at the overall referal traffic social still represents about 2% of the share. that is up 100% year over year but not a big part of what is driving retailers last click traffic. social is playing a huge role in the conversation of what am i going to buy, how do i want to shop for that? that is where we see social

playing a big impact this year. one you didn't mention is pintrust. it has doubled its referal traffic year over year. >> do you view the whole shopping season as we can't look at past data as indicative of whether or not we will have a good year if we have had good traffic through december 1? is that out the window now as the way people shop has changed dramatically? >> i think the way people shop has changed dramatically. we aggregated the data and try to roll it forward. there has been questions. we started strong. is that going to tail off? by all intents we look at the data yesterday we are up for a strong shopping season. >> good to have you with us. thanks for shopping by. let's hit pops and drops and movers you might have missed. we start with a pop by corning.

>> glass volumes are up. if you get a company that guides up in this environment that is a very good thing. >> we have a drop for chipotle down 3%. extra chicken no beans. >> i'm not a chipotle guy and apparently not a lot of folks are these days, as well. they do the slow grind lower. i rather jack in the box. look at the way that recovered. jack is better than cmg right here. >> pop for best buy up 3%. >> this is making the glacial move towards getting a buyout. they met with bankers today perhaps got financing. if you are in the stock for a buyout you take something off the table. >> equity residential up. >> the idea that he is now a buy

er that is actually very interesting to me. >> pop for monster beverage up 13%. >> for someone like me that is a bio medical engineer this is an interesting story. there are no proven cases of the drinks causing a problem. they are looking into it, sniffing around into it but nothing in the immediate future. >> before you go -- can we ask bio medical -- he threw that out there. you want to elaborate. >> masters from university of michigan go blue here. you know. i wanted to be a genetic engineer at some point but the markets took over. fast money is where it is all about. >> we thought he was just a

pretty face. >> brain behind the brawn. the pop for sea santa. an under water visit from santa kicked off the holiday season at an aquarium. he ran with eagle rays, sharks. the show ended with santa surrounded by hundreds of fish forming the shape of a christmas tree. pete's in the hot seat as we play the good, the bad and the ugly. find out what trade has him patting himself on the back. when will apple get its mojo back? tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about low-cost investing. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're committed to offering you tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 low-cost investment options-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like our exchange traded funds, or etfs tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 which now have the lowest tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 operating expenses tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 in their respective tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 lipper categories. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 lower than spdr tdd#: 1-800-345-2550

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let's get the latest from green mountain's conference call. herb greenberg has been monitoring the action there. >> they haven't mentioned starbucks there. i want to go over a few things. ceo larry right out of the gate said that to date when he talked about competition there is nothing that causes the company

to change its expectations. he said developments are more positive than they were a quarter ago. he talks about the new view machine which is ultimately going to be edged in with the current machine. sales of the view fell by half this quarter. but he said going forward he expects the view to take over. then he talked about k cups. he wants to know what happens to the unlicensed partner, the competition in the market place. starbucks is currently a licensed partner. that license is up in march. he says over the next three years unlicensed k-cup manufacturers should take 5% to 15% of the market and then started talking very emphatically without mentioning starbucks. he talked about not one single

partner, licensed partner represents more than 6% of the net sales but wants you to think about what will happen if a license partner becomes unlicensed partner that is what the market will be paying attention to. this was a very good quarter for the company. i want to point out there were a lot of rebates on the quarter. this was a rebate quarter for k-cups and brewers. tomorrow the 10 k comes out. the print, as they say, was good. they had to have a good quarter this quarter because they set it up that way and the stock is showing it right now and people reacting to that. >> what is your take on the move in the after hours action? each licensed partner is over 6% but there can be death by 1,000. >> the biggest. newman's is the biggest not mentioning starbucks. remember, there is the old

issue, anyone can lead. these are multi year partners. and i think when the bears look at this going forward down the road they are looking at the margin and what happens if people go out. so what is my take on the trading? guy mentioned it. guy is a trader. guy said it. i'll go by what guy said. >> sometimes the traders hit it out of the park and sometimes they swing and miss. let's play the good, the bad and the ugly. back in september keith told you to stay away from alpha natural resources. take a listen. >> we talked about it thursday. you can't buy it today. the reality is that stocks that are commodity oriented will have a tough time when the dollar goes up. >> hopefully you listened because since that call it stumbled about 12%.

>> all basic material stocks specifically that one are shorts particularly if the dollar continues higher. chinese demand is lower. we continue to see a bubble popping that was created by bernanke. >> last week he thought it was a good time to short amazon. >> looking for broken stocks that were green today to short amazon. >> that hasn't worked out so well. amazon jumped roughly 6% since then. do you stick with the short here? >> the most important thing for someone like me who is an aggressive short seller the minute that that support becomes resistance and you flip it over. 2.37 is my trend. today on the pullback i had to cover amazon because it is back into a bullish position. >> what is the name of this segment? don't act disgusted.

>> the good which we did. bad. what's the ugly? is that an ugly for me? look at that. >> that isn't ugly. that is just disturbing. small children avert your eyes. want to know what is in store for stocks and apple from now until the end of the year? the answer can be found by checking the charts. we'll do that with one of the most respected analysts on the street. or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series

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as stocks come off another down day will there be more selling? joining us is one of the most respected technicians on wall street. it is always nice to have you stop by here. >> pleasure for me to. >> why don't you walk us through the chart and what you are seeing for the rest of the year? >> we shared with our clients in late october that we had sell

signals in the momentum study for the s&p 500 as it was starting to roll over. one of the interesting things is you can see here that there were several periods where you got sell signals. what was interesting about this one is that it was the second sell signal in a given period. and it had a negative divergence. in other words, the price went higher but the momentum failed to get above the prior level. and the only prior times when we had that negative diverging relationship was in 2011 where you can see each rally up to the high failed in terms of the momentum and the sale signal came in place and in 2010. it doesn't mean we have to have that kind of decline now but it does suggest that the negative

devergence could carry a little bit lower. so what we have had here is a rally after the decline and it can be a kick back in the resistance which is the way it has looked so far. >> the resistance in my world comes in at 14.25. where does this thing find support? you mentioned 18%. you said you don't think it will be that big. where does s&p find longer term support? >> longer term support would probably be below it. but 13.50 is the support that we have had from the recent low under that would be about 1300. that would be near the up trend around here 1313. so support 1,300 will be giving us an 11% decline which would represent a correction. don't get to bear market territory until over 20%.

>> many investors want to know about apple and what you see for that stock. >> yes. that is another very interesting one and maybe it is becoming a new bell weather. we have for that stock the first negative divergence again here as the price went up towards 700 the momentum failed to get above the prior level. so we haven't seen a negative divergence like that in a corrective phase for apple since 2008 which is a little unsettling. it has hit bear market proportions. and the kickback here towards 600 and even 630 if it starts to stall here and starts to rollover there is a possibility that it could come under the recent low. it broke originally at 600 and then 650 and then even just touched under the 530 level from back here in early 2012.

so this kickback rally is right into resistance and you are very close to also getting a sell signal on the moving averages. best case scenario it goes side aways. you hate to see it rally back up. it is the first time that the corrective phase since 2008 really hasn't turned around and gone up again for apple. we are a little concerned. best case it consoldates above 530 or 500 which is where the upstrend comes into play. >> what did you take away from this? >> i agree with most of it. the one part that i think louise would have added to is the volume studies. what is different about this snapback rally is the volume at this point can make you nauseous. it is frightening. we are looking at charts that show you price. once you strap on low

volatility, the vix has bottomed about six timesp around 14 or 15. with these volume studies we are remised to say we have seen this before because this is new. jane wells has a look at what is coming up next. >> melissa, "two and a half men" is down to one man who is not creating negative headlines and we are going to compare lindsay lohan to facebook. remember, we're playing to lose.

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a bit of a slump recently a as it has fallen. what did you see today in terms of the action? >> the selloff has brought in people that want to get into the stock here. we saw one put seller of the january 31 strike about 5,000 times. if the stock falls further from here they are willing to own aig. holding 37% is aig. they are a big believer in the stock. you are talking about a stock that trades at two times pe back of the last 12 months here.

the government sold a part of the shares 300 million shares in september and the market absorbed that at $32.50. the stock is still here. i think there is potential long term great value here. i put on a bull spread myself. >> let's move on to our next story from mobile devices to medical marijuana we have you covered. >> first charlie sheen and now the kid. the second highest rated is being called filth by jake who is the half. he is urging people not to watch the show for which he is payed an estimated $350,000 an episode. he will not appear in the next two episodes but that is, quote, a coincidence. >> that sounds so stupid. what a stupid move. >> is it stupid?

>> you are on the show. >> any publicity is good publicity. >> i don't think he is doing it for publicity. >> he is not going to get paid. >> religious reasons. >> cbs. what's the trade here. media stocks? >> i don't know if you can make a trade off of this one particular thing. it is kind of difficult to say if it is a publicity stunt or not. >> you are no fun. up next we find out john crier is darth vader. california's best friend, arizona has turned on her. you may have heard the phoenix area has offered trips to check out the lower taxes but it pains our friend to do so. >> arizona was built by californians. this is a huge strategy for us at the greater peats economic council buzz it is more aggressive in nature.

but we think the situation california is going to get drastic and dramatic. we are concerned that our own economic position is going to erode. >> that is because of higher taxes here. dozens of ceos have signed up. a gimmick? a member of the young president's organization has anclusive partnership with cnbc. >> if we continue to tax folks to the point of where they are going to give consideration to leaving the state are you really raising any revenue or are you creating a bigger burden to raise future revenues because a lot is left. >> will not be doing any hiring in california and may expand out of state. which is worst? california or new jersey? >> in terms of what? >> all of this is a fine line in terms of taxation around the

world. we have seen it drive rich people to places like luxenburg. >> it's not going to change. we become more and more like europe each and every day. >> well, if larry moved to lexmburg california is going to hurt. lindsay lohan shares because she has bottomed. after the reviews from "liz&dick" there is only upside left. facebook shares may have bottomed, as well. >> you're not a believer in lindsay lohan's bottom? >> i want to be an optimist. >> and you picked lindsay lohan to do it? >> way to go, jane.

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let's play a little hold emor fold em. yum up 40% year on year. what do you do? >> this is an actual all-time high. just authorized another share. they seemed to do everything right. sorts seemed to fail. cmg is one of the stories. yum seems to be tough right now. i think i still. >> hold em. >> i have to know the game. >> trading at levels not seen since january of 2005. it is up 25% from a year ago. >> normally i like to sell stocks that are making new 52-week highs. i think it has more room to run. 13 times forward earnings. 16 times historical. it is still cheap relative to where it has traded.

with this deal they expand their product line. i think you hold this one. >> you hold it. >> you hold it. >> seems like that guy needs a mustache. >> maybe they can elaborate. jamie dimon will be the next secretary of the treasury fact or fiction. take a listen to what he has said in the past about a forainto politics. >> i am not suited for politics. i know it and you know it. >> so fast or fiction? jamie dimon is the best pick? i will go to the lover of jamie dimon. >> i thought it was fast fact or fiction he was my boyfriend. that is the web extra. fiction in the real world. he will not be the secretary of the treasury. >> you did say that he would be probably a good one.

>> he would be an excellent choice but i don't see him wanting to do it or him making the offer. >> daniel kraig is stepping down. jamie is walking in. he can't do everything. >> the "new york times" has called him obama's banker. >> that is not a gigantic leap from running jp morgan to treasury secretary. >> you are not going to get the best guy for the job. it would be an absolute disaster working with these people. i don't think jamie dimon can tolerate it. >> i don't think there is a shot he would say yes to it. >> i'm not -- coming up next on "mad money" jim cramer has first

crack at it. plus pph has been in faction on wall street but can it continue to control the cat walk? all coming up top of the hour on "mad money." we have your first move of the morning coming up. [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- what starts with adding a friend... ♪ ...could end with adding a close friend. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection. ♪

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> a derivative play on apple. i think if the market starts to move higher a great high beta name to own if the market moves up. >> the only commodity that is bullish is natural gas. >> guy. how are you feeling? >> i'm good. strong. >> you wasn't around yesterday. >> thanks for your concern. >> i like apa. it bottomed out around 75. >> the retail space i like target. >> brian kelly. >> we had a drought in the midwest during the summer. we are having a drought now and the winter wheat crop is threatennc