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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 20, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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operating system. >> thank you so much, john. the stock up better than 8% on research in motion. look at the day on wall street. the dow jones industrial average higher and getting a boost in the last 20 minutes of trafditr. 13,311. nasdaq picked up six points, as you can see there and the s&p 500 higher by eight points. my observation comes back tomorrow. thank you so much for being with me tonight. we'll see you tomorrow. hope you follow my on twitter and on google plus. have a great night. stay with cnbc, because "fast money" begins right now. where's the christmas spirit? >> the fact is is that his plan is not balanced. and as a result, time's running short. >> eggnog anyone? >> we house republicans are taking concrete action to avoid the fiscal cliff. >> is a deal slipping away? >> let's be clear about -- about
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this matter. he wants to soak everybody. and there's only one way to do it. and that is exactly what he gets if we do nothing. >> soak everybody? even santa? the fiscal cliff, and your money, right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. rally in motion. we're hitting the after hours action in rimm as the shares surge. should you keep betting on blackberry 10. plus, which economy is the best bet in 2013? jpmorgan's chief economist has his top pick. and we're debating the big deal of the day with the bull and the bear case for the nyse ice. but let's check out where the traders stand before we hit tomorrow's session. so, steve, buyer or seller today? >> i think you have to lighten up on a lot of the positions you've had some profitts in. it's really prudent to start
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peeling off the winners, because we're still waiting on fiscal cliff, as everyone knows. i think the market is poised to sell the news event here. i don't know if we're going to have a news event to sell. >> right. just because you sell those winners doesn't mean that you can't still be in the trade, correct karen? a lot of people are receiving but re-entering the trade. >> this is a strategy you normally never do, realize, especially with long-term deals, realize those now in 2012 and buy them right back, you might think wash sale might pop into your head but -- >> you have to wait 30 days? >> doesn't aplay to gains, only to losses. you can sell, buy them back right away, get a better tax rate in 2012. i'm sure you're fascinated. my husband loves that kind of thing. >> well, it's very handy especially in a climate where we are looking at higher taxes. >> you blame that on the high fliers that you see being sold off. there's some and we'll talk about more of them later, but the refiner space seems to be high fliers and they don't get
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sold off. i'm perplexed why people take the gains in some places but not others. >> tim? >> seller. taking profits and resource names, miner names. but i'm a buyer of this market. the housing numbers, bank of japan putting $120 billion back into their system. this market feels very good, but you take profits here. >> you said you're selling but you're buying -- >> isn't that a great hedge? taking profits today but not because we don't like the market. the market looks very good here. you have a quad on friday, you have a light volume christmas eve coming your way. this market can pull back. >> a light volume week next week but also we've only got five trading days until the fiscal cliff. limited amount of time to play this. >> yeah. the 26th basically and malloy, you've been saying that forever. he is -- >> who is malloy? >> the producer of "fast money." executive producer. >> executive. >> yes, sir. >> that particular issue of the people coming back, perhaps on the 26th, to try to get
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something done by year-end, i don't think ultimately, melissa, they will, but i am on karen's trade and i've liquidating virtually any of my holdings that are longer than a year in duration, because i want to recognize that capital gains profit and capital gains, there isn't a wash sale issue there and you can go right back in and enter. >> give you an example of a stock or position that you ex exited and entered right away. >> apple, home depot, gold. i think karen brings up a very valid point that not everybody has thought of it and/or thinking perhaps this is something that runs you afoul of that wash sale rule, which it does not. wash sale is, of course, to recognize the loss, as karen said. >> right. >> and you can't re-enter the trade or option, derivative trade, for 30 days. with this, you're recognizing the gain. you will have a taxable event, but it's at the lowest tax in my lifetime, i don't think we'll see taxes this low for -- >> getting a cliff event? >> either way, tim, we're going
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to go to 20%, at least, for long-term capital gains. dividends, i didn't know anything based on -- >> we're talking about just winners right now. there's the event when you have a losing trade, where people want to push that off and offset it. we're talking about winners here, but that same strategy can work with a lot of losers, and that's why you see the names that have been underappreciated still holding in there and still racheting up. >> let's talk about d.c. and its impact on the markets. congress, of course, on the clock, just six trading days left to get a deal done. negotiations at a stand still. speaker bane e ee eer boehner g with his vote for plan b. ed, the clock is not working in our favor at this point. >> it isn't. you have kind of the time that's been taken up on plan b, then, you have senator inouye's funeral over the weekend. you get christmas on tuesday and then you are looking at the senate rules that oftentimes to prevent a filibuster, you need
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to have a bill sit around for 72 hours before it gets voted on. i think the key there, though, is whether or not if we get a deal before that 72-hour clock starts and that puts us over to the new year, people will be a lot more sanguine than if there is no deal and that 72-hour clock hasn't started. >> what is the importance of plan b? i ask you that because there are all indications that it would not fly in the senate, president obama would strike it down. so, is the real importance of this whether or not the speaker will be re-elected to a speakership in january? >> you know, i think that's a great question. i think that a lot of people look at his speakership and thinks he needs to get a majority of the votes within a republican caucus to maintain that speakership. but on the first day of next congress, you have a vote. and the person who gives the speaker has to get a majority. so, he can only lose 17 members before they have a leadership crisis and nancy pelosi starts looking like she has the most votes. she's not going to be speaker,
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but this reduces some of boehner's flexibility. what we're seeing in this vote, this is a show me vote. this is breaking the seal for a lot of members to vote on a bill that has a tax increase, maybe not, kind of, at the million dollar level, but in the future, when you lower it to 400,000, it's about the same thing. >> ed, where's the line drawn in the sand? do you think it's this tax issue that i think has become an olive -- excuse me, a branch that's very difficult for president obama to come in off of? >> it depends on who you talk to. for democrats, it is entitlements. they don't want to make some of these changes because they won the election and they're being asked to kind of change things that were not in the election. they ran on taxes. they want those taxes to go up. for republicans, it's spending pafrment part of the reason they're doing plan b is, they're moving the conversation to democrats holding the tax credits hostage
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because they're kind of drunk on spending. and that, they think, is a winning scenario. >> ed, i hear the way you preface it. the democrats ran on two, two and a half to one, basically, kuchlts to revenues. now it's not even two to one, at that point, right? so, it's not really what they ran on and what they have to remember is, boehner ran on something, too, so, there's still a majority in the house, correct? >> oh, sure. but i think the question here is, republicans are the ones who want the cuts. so, for democrats, they say, fine. you want the cuts, tell us exactly what those cuts are going to be. because the last thing democrats want to have is for them to propose the cuts, that to be part of the deal and then republicans run against them in two years against the cuts that republicans were pushing for. that's what happened in the last election, with all the concerns about cuts to medicare, so, if we're going to change entitlement, kind of the fingers have to be on the murder weapon for the republicans and not for
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the democrats. >> last quick question, ed, and i want to get your prediction. what is the probability in your mind right now of us going over the fiscal cliff? >> i put it at about 60%, because i think both sides still strongly, strongly want a deal, but with the time running out, and the incentives for brinksmanship, i have to err on the side that we probably have to bungee jump the cliff, go over temporarily before we solve it. that's unfortunately a little less optimistic than i wanted to be at this point. >> ed mills, thank you very much. again, the bottom line there, he thinks 60% chance we go off the cliff. so, the question is, what impact would that have on the market? we actually got a prediction from house democratic leader nancy pelosi earlier today, here's what she said. >> a market crash would be, you know, unthinkable. and i think that -- i don't think that is going to happen.
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>> do you agree with her, doc j? >> she's obviously got some stocks in the game. >> her husband certainly does. >> yeah. >> i think overall, that we are not going to see a market crash. unless they just fight again on this burning ship -- >> even if we go over? >> if we go over the cliff and most of us, around this table, believing that we will go over the cliff, but then some deal will be struck and we're likely to see, as i said -- >> i think everyone thinks that the deal is going to get done on some patch work. that's what we see in this tremendous runup. >> there will be a deal done, steve, but not before we go over the cliff. we go over the cliff. won't be a bungee jump back, but they'll back it up, approve some deal that will be retro active. >> we do go over the cliff technically with the patch work solution will come in the days to follow. >> right. but think about it this way. they said, unless entitlements are dealt with, if this is just a quick partial work, we're going to see another downgrade.
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you have to make your bet on the market if you think that's even going to matter now. >> right. let's talk about research in motion. john fort's watching the action from san jose. john? >> yeah, melissa. talking right now on the call, a couple of interesting things he said already. their cash increased significantly, by more than $600 million. subscribers in north america, though, he said, showed the largest decline. the number was 79 million down from 80 million, a quarter ago. that's important, pause the subscriber number is kind of a lagging number. as you see devices go down later on, you see subscribers go down. if they're still losing them in north america, that hasn't stabilized to strength is in emerging markets. they aren't going to be buying blackberry 10. are people going to switch off their iphones and android devices in america over to blackberry 10, that's what rim has to hope for. a question. is that a quarter on quarter
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comparison, in terms of declining the most or year on year? >> it is a quarter on quarter comparison. that's the context of what he was saying. subscribers actually increased year on year. >> okay, john, thank you for that. we'll get more from john on the conference call later on in the show. meantime, all day, scott wapner has been counting down the worst trades of 2012. up next, he unveils the final name on the list. the worst trade of the year. plus, we continue to bring you all the action in the after hours movers. find out in the a newly minted rim shareholder is sticking with his long after the xeechl's earnings report. and later on, bruce kasman is here with his outlook from 2013. find out which country he says is a sure bet for next year. [ male announcer ] this december, remember --
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our look at the best and worst trades of the year continues now with a stock that's short circuiting inves or thes this year. scott wapner is here with the big reveal. scott? >> all right, melissa, thank you. it is the big reveal. we'll go to the wall for that, topping our worst list, drum roll please -- hewlett-packard. it's down 44%, amid questions about its future and its past. most notably it's $11 billion deal for autonomy. hb stunned the market last month when it said it would take an $8 billion charge related to that deal, alleging it was misled by the company. one person, though, not shocked by that news, short seller jim chanos. he called it a massive value trap at c nbc's conference. the stock has gained a bit lately, few wall street analysts like it. just this week, topeka capital urged investors to take advantage of any of the gains
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we've seen recently and sell it. others say the only way to unlock value is to split this technology institution up. melissa, i have a feeling in the new year, you, me and the traders are going to be talking about this one. wouldn't you think? >> oh, fur sure, scott. thank you for that. scott wapner at the nyse. the worst of the year, hewlett-packard, but this was one of your best trades of the year. >> was the year that bad? >> it was that bad. >> oh. >> as of late, you started to notice that people are really flipping around a lot of the names that have been beaten up. the stock ran 30% off the low. you can't fall in love if you're a short or long. you have to trade more in this marketplace. i did. and i wound up making a nice profit in hp. i'm waiting for a pull back now because i think it's overbought. >> you know why he did so well? >> why? >> surrounded. >> surrounded. when you surround the trade, you're a winner. >> if you watch the commercials, you can learn something. i'm just saying. >> that's it. >> i am steve grasso.
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>> shares of research in motion surging after the company reported better than expected results. from its september lows, it's up 145%. is this a sign that rim's rally will continue? eric jackson from iron fire capital is on the fast line. it's the first time he's taken a long position in the stock, reversing the short position you had been in, eric. at this point, what do you do? >> hey, melissa. i think you stay with the trade definitely until launch. if we learned anything from palm, going back three years ago, is that, you know, these stocks can get really about ewe lent ahead of a product lunch. palm went from 2 bucks to 18 bucks. still room to go with this. i'm going to reassess, at the time of launch, but i'm actually more positive and more inclined to hang onto this thing for the next year, because everybody thinks the thing is going to flop when it comes out.
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everybody likes to make the comparisons to palm and nokia and i just think there are huge differences and i think rim does have a good shot of being successful, with its existing subscriber base. still 79 people walking around in the world carrying blackberries. >> what do you have to see from the launch, separate from the stock move. how many phone boss they need to sell? >> well, they need to sell 18 million, just to basically break even. and keep in mind that, you know, basically over the last few months, the market's been saying the whole hand set business at rim is worth nothing. so, i think, you know, 18 million out of 79 million people upgrading, i think that's a pretty low bar. i think 30 million next year is more reasonable and if they do that, they'll be wildly profitable and there's going to be reratings of this stock. >> if they do 18, does that necessarily mean they're out of the woods and they will and will remain a growing concern?
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there was an interesting note at barclays, making the point that there are three beleaguered hand set makers trying to make a come back at the same time. something that's been unprecedented. rim, nokia and htc, all vying for that, you know, far third spot out there. >> right. >> so, what are you -- do you have confidence in the stock itself and the fundamentals? >> well, i think somebody's got to be number three. you know, i always ask the rim bears, who is going to be number three if not rim and everybody shakes their head and says, it's going to be a two-horse race. i think rim's got the best shot of anyone out there, but that said, obviously this is a competitive space. and, you know, longer than a year out, you know, what's going to happen, who knows? i think what rim has going for it is obviously this space is just getting hotter and hotter. it's not like kodak where it's a declining space. it wouldn't surprise me if rim's not around and taken out by a facebook and amazon or a samsung
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and so that's just another reason why, you know, i'm positive to hold the stock longer term. >> eric, thanks for your time. eric jackson of ironfire capital. what's interesting, so many skeptics about rim. this was posted on the cnbc.com website and shows the stock's run but quince dent to the stock's run is the increase, massive increase in short interest, to the point at the end of november where short interest was the highest since january of 2004. >> that's a fantastic opportunity. and eric, what's fascinating here, he was one of those guys. at what point do you get to a point where you are taking the sum of the parts, taking whatever. even on failure of blackberry 10, this is where you see the turn. there's big boys in the market here that made that turn that they shorted apple, they went long rim and reversed the tables. >> yeah, and rim, research in motion here, pete, knock on wood, my brother, has been long this one since july and it's had repeated runs on about the three-month out options.
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so, these are the ones that people buy so they have enough time to be right. wow, you take a look at where it's been. it's more than doubled. in fact, another couple dollars and it will be a triple on the stock since then and the options have gone up hundreds of percent, so, this has been a real, just a, like eric said, a real turn around story that people continue to bet into next year, will continue to -- >> where's the volatility gone on that? i'm assuming the volatility's gone through the roof. three-month vol is not cheap. and you're really paying up for that extra time. >> you're paying up for the protection, tim. if those who want protection against it picking back down after this serious run. and the upside, though, again, if this was david tepper, what would david be doing? what would tepper do? he'd be buying calls in here, most probably, because everybody is fading it. they all say the run's over and they just keep adding to the -- >> might be making fun of you, too, your hair or something. >> he might. david tepper and i have folicly challenged, both of us. >> yeah, yeah.
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mike out there, where is your bet on rim? >> well, you know, those options cost so much. look at the june 15 calls. those things cost $2.80. 20% of the current stock price. that just gives you a sense of how expensive it would be to make the speculative belts to the upside. the only reason people are doing that because of that high short interest, which can create to the squeeze. if you had to sit here, think, who is going to be surviving two years from now, rim or htc, i'd have to say htc. they've had successful products. i just don't see where rim is going to be competing in this space. not going to happen. let's get down to washington, d.c. john harwood thas the latest ona meeting the president had. >> melissa, just wanted to bring you up to date in ways the administration is reaching out as they see the negotiations not having progressed. the house preparing to vote on plan b. and what's happening is, the administration, principally, tim
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geithner and other administration officials are reaching out to business, seeking some lever on the republican majority in the house, even though, you know, much of the opposition to what the president wants and the kind of deal he wants to strike with boehner comes from tea party types. they do believe that big company ceos and representatives or the major industry trade groups will have some influence with the republican party. secretary geithner was reaching out to ceos. last night, meetings with trade association representatives. one of the participants told me that the message from the white house is, things have gone backwards in recent days, we might go over the cliff, we don't want to go over the cliff and they're hoping that some pressure will be put on republicans to jump start these negotiations and get them back on track to avoiding the cliff. >> thank you for that update, john. coming up next, the herbalife saga continues today. find out how bad the fallout could be. and "fast" gets in the
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spirit of the season. find out which retailers we're stocking up and which one we're giving a lump or coal. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] citi turns 200 this year. so why exactly should that be of any interest to you? well, in that time there've been some good days. and some difficult ones. but, through it all, we've persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. like the transatlantic cable that connected continents. and the panama canal that made our world a smaller place. we supported the marshall plan that helped europe regain its strength. and pioneered the atm, so you can get cash when you want it. it's been our privilege to back ideas like these, and the leaders behind them. so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping people and their ideas move from ambition to achievement. and the next great idea could be yours.
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you said repeatedly, at one point, you said, if you succeed,
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you're going to be donating the money to charity. you called it blood money. >> yes. i don't want to make money off of this. >> because? >> i just -- it's not a happy thing. you've had millions of low income people around the world who gotten their hopes up that there's an opportunity for them to become millionaires or hundred thousand-aires or something like that and they've been duped. >> that was big ackman earlier today. shares of herbalife have tumbled roughly 21% since cnbc first reported on a short position in yesterday's session. dr. jay, when you heard he was donating the money to charity, you said, that's lame. why? >> spoken like a guy that doesn't short things. >> this is only his second short. >> yeah. >> exactly. >> but you don't apologize for it anymore you apologize for beating a team 72-0. if they're bad, you stomp them. i'm sorry, but that's the way it is. that's -- anyway.
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to focus in on what his problem is with the company, though -- >> brutal. >> the people being taken advantage of, i understand that. i think it's great to give money to charity. i'm not against that. but don't apologize for making money. he's apologizing here for making money. and i don't think -- >> which, by the way -- >> it's legitimately making money. >> it's a very clever self-sevening little -- play the violin. >> comes out the hero here. he's doing it for the people. >> you know, it reinforces that this guy's got to be right because he really doesn't want to do this. >> forcing my hand. >> mike, you're sitting on your trading desk today and you said your clients were buzzing about hlf. >> this was really the biggest story of the day. certainly the most interesting one. his comments -- it's interesting, too. michael johnson yesterday was talking about all the options activity going into expiration. well, a lot more of them traded today than traded going into this, i'll tell you that. i mean, the december options were extremely active. january options were extremely active. one of the trades we noted was
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buyers of the january 30 puts. over 4,000 traded, average price of $1.30. more than 6 thoushgts of those traded and the final mrils wpri close to 2 bucks. jan expiration only a month away. >> a lot of questions, too, about the other multilevel marketing xeechls out there. we talked about this yesterday. usna, the ticker simple there, that was down 4%. we had new skin down 4%. he did aggress directly avon, he didn't believe that avon fell into the cross hairs of this sort of pyramid scheme allegation that he's alleging. >> well, it does have some what of a structure that looks like a pyramid, if you look, but -- >> right. >> i'm not saying that -- i don't like avon personally, but i don't think there's anything wrong with it. i have to go back, one thing. >> sure. >> the thing about the charity, he's very charitable guy.
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you can allocate whatever you are giving. i don't know that it really matters, but i do think it's very clever on his hard. >> it is. >> to say that, because, you know, then people say, well, not just that we hope he makes money, but i think it gives him an air of credibility so you can look at it -- less emotional. >> yes, good point there. let's talk about nike. out with earnings after the bell. brian shactman monitoring the conference. what's the latest? >> the stock is above $100 a share. the conference call, it's interesting. they are a little bit defensive about china. the stock is sharply higher, but this is a mixed report. they beat by 14 cents on eps. a slight beat on revenue. 7% jump in sales, so, that's all good. north america is the real strength here and it was almost shocking how strong the double digit gains in apparel in the u.s. it's doing brutal in china and in terms of sales, they're used
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to double-digit gains in china. they saw double-digit negatives in china. so, the take away is, they're managing their business extremely well, despite weakness in china and north america is strong right now, so, if you believe in the thesis that the u.s. growth will be outstripping a lot of parts of the world, than nike looks pretty good right now. >> thank you for that, brian. and so some degree, we knew about the weakness in china, talked about inventories in china. >> we suffered the china weakness in the june quarter. that's where these guys -- they missed, they got destroyed that day and this is a company that has actually typically beat it over the last two years. but china is 11% of their sales. as much as it's exciting to talk about nike in china, this is not their holy grail. they still need to compete. the u.s. is 37% of sales. europe is 17% of sales. at 20 times earnings, these guys with 20% roe, these guys are worth owning here and 2% div. broke through 100, the stock
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actually looks like it's breaking out. coming up next, which of the world's xheechs will be the leader of the pack in 2013? bruce kasman is here with his predictions for next year. we'll tell you if you should get in on this trade. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. plus get up to $600 customer erin swenson bought so, i'm happy. today. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home?
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welcome back to "fast money." we are live in times square. from china to europe to the u.s., 2012 was a year of sluggish economic growth but our next guest says one of them is set to stand out in 2013. bruce kasman, managing director of jpmorgan joins now with his zwrout look for the year ahead. it's all a matter of what is relative to expectations, so, which economy do you think will stand out the most? >> well, let's just start by saying i think we have a world that's started to turn. the bottom was actually reached in the summertime. we're gradually moving upward now and we think that's going to continue, but it's going to be con constrained. it's lifting, but it's constr n constrained by u.s. fiscal policy, credit conditions that
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remain tight in emerging markets. when you think about who is going to outperform relative to expectations, in near term, it's the industry cycle in north asia that's going to be helped. tech is turning. there's an inventory cycle. china demand is gathering momentum. i think china, korea, taiwan is going to get a little bit of bounce off of it. that's what moves first. what moves second is europe. and i think europe is a story of the ecw doing the right thing after having done the wrong thing for two years. you get some lift out of that. you get lift out of countries that aren't tightening as much. europe lifting out of recession, through the spring of next year is really important and i think it will be a surprise. and then, the u.s., which, i think is getting a lot better, is going through a pothole here. even if you take the most besign judgment you want about fiscal cliff, the payroll tax holiday is going to go away. $125 billion tax hike hitting
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the consumer january 1. i think we can absorb it but it's not going to give you strong growth. the u.s. is going to take time to get through that. by the middle of the year, we might be picking up smartly. but we don't start the year on a great note. >> how about the housing market? it seems like -- all the numbers we had out today and a lot of leading indicators, commercial -- it seems very difficult to slow this down. we know that these numbers are going to be choppy. so, is the fiscal cliff even something that can stop this, what seems like a great tail wind? >> well, i think, again, let's look at the fiscal cliff from two perspectives. if you stayed over that cliff, got help us. that's a big enough drag. however, we get a deal from washington, doesn't have to be a big frame work deal, we will have growth next year and we will have a lot of the good things you're talking about in housing, i think the corporate sector is going to pick up, as well. but again, you are giving the housing sector a drag of huge size in the beginning of the year. that's not going to allow us to
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grow at a 3% pace. >> can i ask you about that, that payroll tax? that is the $128 billion, over the course of the year, right? >> no, it's not over the course of the year. it hits payrolls on the first paycheck in january. you get a rise in taxes that over the course of the year is 1% of income, but in the first quarter annualized is over 4% of income. if you are thinking about gdp, we have a very big drag that's hitting us earlier in the year. it can be absorbed over a period of time but a lot of house holds don't have the ability to cushion that and i think consumption slows, materially -- >> what is the impact on gdp, half a percent? >> it's going to take a percent off in the first quarter, about three quarters of a percent in the first half of the year. that's what you have to absorb, i think, to get growth going again as we go through the middle of the year. >> circling back to the original topic, and that is china, so, the first quarter of the year, the u.s. will be constrained because of these factors. what is -- what are you modeling
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for china in terms of growth? >> in china, we're going to be seeing growth somewhere in the mid eights. that's not a boomy story for china, but we got down into the mid sixes. we went from 11 to low 6s, now we're going from six to eight and a half. that's an important impulse and it's an up pulse that is combining with a global industry story that's helping the rest of asia, particularly the north asian countries that are most, i think, driven by the tech cycle and mobile hand held devices. >> bruce, thank you for coming by. good to see you. bruce kasman of jpmorgan. all right, so, if we did see the bottom in terms of world economic growth over the summer, you think industrials would be a place to be? >> you really have to have a better picture going forward of the u.s. economy. so, for me, i think you see a lot of these pops and basically beta trades, based on the economy improving. but you -- the economy really does have to improve. and as bruce said, if you're talking about maybe the ability to have 1% shaved off of gdp and then, you know, the higher tax
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end, on the wealthiest americans, we talked about this, it's .25, a quarter percent. we can't afford anything coming off of gdp. you have to believe in the economy. >> one quick china trade here? >> i think if you want to play the consumer, ucht, and i like baidu. the consumer is still playing in the tech space and this is cheap. >> gave us a bonus, too. thank you. time now for pops and drops. we kick it off with a drop for amicus. 40%. >> i never heard of them until todayactually, their drug to cure it didn't work. but i like that the ticker is fold. clearly what you should have done this one. >> pop for holly frontier, up 2%. >> this gets back into how we opened up the show. these are the stocks that outperform that you don't see in
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a year-end tax selling. so, all things being equal, maybe you can grab another 3%, going into year-end, barring any type of dc explosion. >> drop here for stop, down 5%. doc jay? >> no surprise. the horrible tragedy hit this stock very hard and i don't know if it goes up. >> car max up 9%. >> margins in the used car market are better than the new car market. their business dynamic is getting better. >> discover financial down 3%. mike? >> some of that miss, attributed to higher than expected komss in q-4, up 20% to 800 million. it was interesting, visa didn't roll over as discover did. i thought that was relative strength. i had a short on visa and i covered it. >> we have a pop here for the double sensation pizza. >> whoa! >> serve that up to me. >> two rings of crust and nearly
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a dozen toppings, including turkey, smoked chicken, hall and alfredo sauce. according to the company, the double sensation offers, quote, twice the happiness and twice the surprise of your average pizza. but the najarian size snack won't cost you too much dough. a regular pie sells for around 20 bucks. >> you know what the original name of that was supposed to be? lard of the rings. >> ah! >> did you make that up? >> get out of here. >> not that good. >> actually -- >> going with what i have here. pizza, tim. >> i want to know who buys this. you can call it a mess for the medals. up next, we get to what's driving the big slide in gold and silver. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the new global account from schwab,
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thanks, karen. love your mississippi outdoors. i vote for your florida beaches, dawn. bill, this louisiana seafood is delicious. we're having such a great year on the gulf, we've decided to put aside our rivalry. now is the perfect time to visit anyone of our states. the beaches and waters couldn't be more beautiful. take a boat ride, go fishing or just lay in the sun. we've got coastline to explore and wildlife to photograph. and there's world class dining with our world famous seafood. so for a great vacation this year, come to the gulf. its all fabulous but i give florida the edge. right after mississippi. you mean alabama. say louisiana or there's no dessert. this invitation is brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home.
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♪ silver and gold ♪ silver and gold >> who is this? >> good call. ♪ silver and gold >> thought it was dennis gartman. >> gold continues to trade below $16.50, down 4% in the month alone. is this once winning unraveling? doc, you noticed unusual
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activity here. >> yeah, just like the bonds you're looking for, is money coming out of fixed income and going into equities? in the case of these particular medals, with john paulson and people potentially front running him, as far as if he's got redemptions and he has to raise cash and sell these, i've seen 34 million shares of the slv trade today, against a normal of, like, 8. that's huge. same thing on the options. in other words, three to five times normal volume occurring in the sorts of things that would indicate that you do have a panic or a flush, both slv and gld bounced pretty -- well, fairly substantially off their bottoms today. we'll see if those bottoms hold. that was right around the 200-day moving average. >> what's the theory behind all this activity? >> like i said, it's a lot of people front running paulson. and there are some gains in these particular commodities they might be taking off and flipping back on. >> sometimes it's tough to buy the losers, sell the winners,
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so, let's play a little hold 'em or fold 'em. first up, bed, bath and beyond, falling to 52-week lows, it's dropped 23% over the past six months. dr. jay? >> lowest point of the year to $54.33. 16 million shares, turnover. so, this is one of those washouts, but as guy and pete and i would say, you know, there are no one-day events. so, i wouldn't rush into this one and buy it today. i think you might want to be a little patient before you buy it. >> okay, so -- >> so -- >> patient before -- >> hold it today. you could be buying it very soon, because they do have a $2.5 billion buy back they have in here and that's when you buy it. >> got it. next up, domino's pizza. new all-time high. shares up 460% from three years ago. >> patrick doyle, ceo, friend of the show. every time you look at the stock, look at the chart, you think it has topped out. but it continues to make new annual highs.
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so -- i would -- hold it. >> very good. >> is that good? >> yeah. >> i'm not so fast. >> double sensation down the line. hard not to think about the double sensation. >> that is so unfunny. >> yesterday, we had on an analyst discussing first solar and he incorrectly stated that the company was planning an analyst meeting for january. this is not the case. rather, first solar tells us it will be providing 2013 guidance following their earnings call in february. so, we wanted to straighten that out. coming up next, karen is joining the likes of dan to make a purposeful move and it's more than just a trade. get the story next. recognize me.
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let's check in with john, who's been on the conference call, rim shares, john, pulling back in the after hours session. >> some sobering news on the call, in some cases, a lack of news. analysts asking rim executives what's going to happen to service revenue with the transition to blackberry 10? rim executives have said there will be some changes in the structure of service revenue by they refused to answer questions about exactly what those changes
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will be, how they might, in fact, impact consumers and enterprises. another issue, questions about how quickly enterprises might adopt devices with blackberry 10. management has not said when the keyboard version of phones with blackberry 10 will come out, but because the enterprise server version won't be available until may, well, at least they've implied that a lot of seas from the enterprise won't pick up until the back half of the year. relying on consumers to pick these up when they first come out. which means in large part north american consumers who are buying iphones and android phones will have to be convinced to pick this up before enterprises do. that might have taken a little bit of the shine off the after hours pop. >> john, thank you. up 8%, now up 1.5%. heavy hitters. putting their top notch stock picking skills to work and this time, it is for a purpose.
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portfolios with purpose is a charity that is open to everyone and it allows you to compete alongside other investors, all in support of a charity of your choice. the deadline for registering is quickly approaching. you have until december 31st to get in the competition. karen, tell us about the charity you're competing for. >> well, the charity that i am competing for is the michael j. fox foundation, which you guys all know. that is looking for a cure for parkinson's. i don't know what david is going to do, we're on the board of that together and it's a great organization and something i care very much about personally, so, that's my charity, michael j. fox foundation. and i think -- are you looking for -- >> one pick, sure. why not? >> in the retail space and that is -- oh, it's -- it's finish line. >> finish line. >> finish line, yes. the athletic foot ware space. >> clever. sneaky.
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>> not quite lard of the rings. >> i like this one a lot. and we will see. we will play for a year. we'll see how the portfolios do and the top three get aloe kated to charity. >> keep us posted. you have until december 31st to sign up for next year's competition. go to portfolios with purpose.org to register. clock's ticking, so, do it. let's play the good, bad and the ugly with steve. first, the good. last week, steve was looking at the financials and chose one bank as his top pick. here's what he said. >> if you look at gold man sack, trading at $119, it looks luke it wants to make a rub at 130 bucks. it definite little has to hold here, though, $118, to make that move. technically, the setup here, either jpmorgan or goldman sachs and i think bang for your buck, goldman sachs. >> shares of goldman have popped
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10% since that call. >> next level to watch, $129.82. if it closes above that, you get a shot at $140. >> all right, now onto the bad. right after thanksgiving, defended his company's stock on "fast money." steve had this to say in his final trade. >> hain, i'm a buyer on weakness. >> not terrible. >> hain -- >> really out there. >> yeah. >> i don't even know if you can use that. >> yeah, well -- humor us. the stock is -- >> i am "fast money." i'm steve grasso. i am "fast money." i was -- that was the bad and the ugly all wrapped into one. >> you said it, my man. >> whole foods is up 54%. hain, up 52%. still. to this day, up 52%. >> so? >> people took off -- going to
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year end, this was a high flier. this was a winner. full disclosure, i like irwin simon, he's the ceo. >> and steve, you're "fast money." >> and you just surrounded the trade. >> all right. >> 200-day is a stopout on the name. >> first move tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying...
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